Constantly monitors US dollar to Russian ruble exchange rate. Below is a report on the change in the US Dollar exchange rate during July 2017. You will find information such as US dollar value for each day in July 2017, the minimum, maximum and average value of the US Dollar. US dollar price is a market-weighted average (for fiat currencies, the exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is given).
Below is US dollar exchange rate chart for each day in July 2017. Average USD price calculated as weighted average the value of the US dollar in the market. For national currencies, the graph shows the exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
US Dollar exchange rate table in July 2017 includes the exchange rate of the US Dollar for each day and the change in the exchange rate of the US Dollar. The change in the value of the currency is calculated as in absolute terms, that is change in the price of the US dollar in rubles, as well as in relative terms, that is percent change in the value of the US dollar.
| Day months | Number of units | Well US dollar | Change of course US dollar |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUB | % | |||
| July 1, 2017 | 1USD | 59.386200 RUB | – | – | July 4, 2017 | 1USD | 58.969500 RUB | −0.4167 | −0.7% |
| July 5, 2017 | 1USD | 59.229500 RUB | +0.26 | +0.44% | July 6, 2017 | 1USD | 59.578700 RUB | +0.3492 | +0.59% |
| July 7, 2017 | 1USD | 60.242600 RUB | +0.6639 | +1.11% | July 8, 2017 | 1USD | 60.379200 RUB | +0.1366 | +0.23% |
| July 11, 2017 | 1USD | 60.301400 RUB | −0.0778 | −0.13% | July 12, 2017 | 1USD | 60.739700 RUB | +0.4383 | +0.73% |
| July 13, 2017 | 1USD | 60.622700 RUB | −0.117 | −0.19% | July 14, 2017 | 1USD | 60.183600 RUB | −0.4391 | −0.72% |
| July 15, 2017 | 1USD | 59.880600 RUB | −0.303 | −0.5% | July 18, 2017 | 1USD | 59.065700 RUB | −0.8149 | −1.36% |
| July 19, 2017 | 1USD | 59.370500 RUB | +0.3048 | +0.52% | July 20, 2017 | 1USD | 59.241800 RUB | −0.1287 | −0.22% |
| July 21, 2017 | 1USD | 59.082300 RUB | −0.1595 | −0.27% | July 22, 2017 | 1USD | 58.932500 RUB | −0.1498 | −0.25% |
| July 25, 2017 | 1USD | 59.657200 RUB | +0.7247 | +1.23% | July 26, 2017 | 1USD | 59.818500 RUB | +0.1613 | +0.27% |
| July 27, 2017 | 1USD | 59.910200 RUB | +0.0917 | +0.15% | July 28, 2017 | 1USD | 59.410200 RUB | −0.5 | −0.83% |
| July 29, 2017 | 1USD | 59.543600 RUB | +0.1334 | +0.22% |
The table shows minimum, maximum and average exchange rate of the US dollar in rubles in July 2017. For the minimum and maximum exchange rate, the date on which this exchange rate fell is indicated.
In July 2017 US dollar value in rubles changed in the range from 58.9325 RUB to 60.7397 RUB with an average value of 59.6927 RUB. At the same time, the minimum average daily price per US dollar was recorded on July 22 (58.9325 RUB), the maximum value of the US dollar in July 2017 dated July 12 and amounted to 60.7397 RUB. hesitation US dollar exchange rate within a month 1.8072 RUB.
Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine "site"! Today we will try to answer the following questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much will the ruble and dollar cost in 2019; when will the crisis in Russia end and so on.
After all, the current economic situation causes unrest among the citizens of Russia with its total instability . The stability of the national currency causes concern, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some are confused by the rise in prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and worry about their savings.
Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and pensioners Concerned about one issue: what will happen to the ruble/dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions, even experienced analysts do not dare to make specific forecasts.
Some experts say that our currency will gradually get stronger, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which of them is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.
So, from this article you will learn:
Having read the material to the end , you will find out our vision on the forecast of the ruble and the dollar.
If you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end
Everyone knows perfectly well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions, which are carried out by Western countries, also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2019, even focusing on the policy of the Central Bank.
The imposition of sanctions against Russia was motivated by political actions in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result, one part of the population began to resist. The inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula were the first to express their resistance.
The Autonomous Republic was the first to express a desire to withdraw from unitary Ukraine. Yes, in 2014 a referendum was held which brought together more than 83 % votes for secession from Ukraine and further accession of the peninsula to the Federation as a subject.
The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence hostilities and act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the inhabitants of Crimea themselves wanted secession from Ukraine.
As is known, October 14, 2014, EU candidate countries, joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit the access of Russian banks to global capital. They also affected the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil and aircraft building.
In particular, the restrictions apply to the following Russian oil and gas companies:
The following Russian banks were affected by the sanctions:
The sanctions did not bypass the industry of the Russian Federation:
The sanctions consist in prohibiting residents of the European Union and their companies from trading in securities with a validity period of over 30 days , Russia's assistance in the extraction of petroleum products.
In addition, the Russians are prohibited operations with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultations European companies. The European Union also banned the transfer to Russia technology, equipment and intellectual property (programs, developments) that can be used in the defense or civil industry.
Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies that were prohibited from supplying special-purpose goods, services and technologies to the European Union.
The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any of the EU countries, not to mention entry into the EU, which is also prohibited.
Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who are on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide companies subject to sanctions funding for more than 30 days.
Sanctions imposed by US authorities relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies and programs to the territory of Russia to support the Russian military forces. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.
Now Russia is prohibited from using spacecraft, which were developed by US forces, as well as which include elements developed by the state. As a result of this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G.
America banned issuing a list of Russian banks loan for more than 90 days
.
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade, economic relationship among companies, banks and so on.
As you can see, the imposed sanctions are good hit the economy and development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something for the normal functioning of the country and the stabilization of the economy?
Some experts express their opinion about the actions on the part of Russia to lift sanctions, or prevent their tightening.
First of all, it is recommended to show a refusal to support the militias in the Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but hiding refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.
Russia needs to take a neutral stance and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. With Russia's retaliatory sanctions, the European Union introduces retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.
Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns countries of the Middle East .
Having cooperated, it is possible to issue joint bonds, investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but they have not yet taken decisive steps.
Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia improve your export. Trade in oil products is now at a low level, and all because of prohibitions and sanctions.
Expanding supplies of oil and natural gas will help Russia eventually achieve a share of the stabilization of the national currency.
Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of turning Ukraine into a so-called black hole in its very center. And at the same time, no one wants a final break with Moscow.
In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play its role. It is not worth waiting for such actions from the US government - having caved in under Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is not at the highest level anyway.
What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions
In recent years, the exchange rate of the national currency of Russia has fallen more than than 20%. The population has never seen such a strong fall of the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will continue to behave. This is especially of concern to people who are going buy or sell assets, real estate, foreign currency and just people who are worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, stocks and other assets at this broker .
The ruble is falling, and it is not known whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury goods.
The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in oil and natural gas prices, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.
Also, the depreciation of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.
Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.
The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left that affects the ruble exchange rate.
They claim that they will now influence the course through inflation targeting. basis method is a set of measures that can affect the inflation rate and the country's credit policy.
Experts identify three main scenarios regarding the state of the ruble:
If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to restoration and economic growth . The price of a barrel of oil is expected to stabilize in Asia and Korea, which will rise to $95, and the dollar should acquire its former price value. 30-40 rubles.
The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia, which will increase the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in autumn 2019.
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The collapses of the oil market only worsen the situation of stabilization of the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average exchange rate of the dollar in relation to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the US dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.
Our government's plans, according to some analysts and experts, do not at all include the adoption of measures to stabilize national work. The development of exports is what the state's efforts are aimed at.
Of course, the export of goods will bring additional income to the country, as Russia copes with the production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the crops harvested by Russian farmers and diggers.
Do not wait for the ruble to stabilize its performance. If we look at the statistics 2014-2015, we can recall that the percentage of expectation of a decrease in the level of gross domestic product was equal to 0.2, but already at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .
The fall of the economy can not have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage of GDP decline, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as the basis. As well as the conditions for the operation of all prohibitions and sanctions. Such low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential domestic and foreign investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the inflow of material resources into the country, which adversely affects the Russian economy.
With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble will begin to lose its current position.
Several reasons will contribute to this:
Under such events, GDP is expected to decline to a figure that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar will stabilize, its value will be 50-65 rubles.
As shown by the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015, the EU will not lift sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that the sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible aggravation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only increase.
As for the price of oil, in this scenario it will remain the same price of $40-60 per barrel. The level of GDP will approach zero, and according to some analysts and forecasts of the World Bank, GDP in Russia will even have a negative indicator. The fall GDP will be about 0,7- 1 % .
Reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - forecasts and opinions
In this situation, every citizen of Russia monitors the behavior of the ruble in the Forex currency market. Many factors influence the decline and appreciation of the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we have written an article about what a novice trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.
What influences the behavior of the national currency?
Among the many reasons, one can single out those that have positive impact on the behavior of the national currency, namely:
In weight with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate . They depreciate the ruble in relation to other currencies.
These factors have a huge impact, our government should take serious measures to prevent them.
As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said that 2019 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.
To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts in this regard.
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Former Minister of Finance of Russia, Alexey Kudrin , believes that in the near future the country's economy is subject to a huge downturn. This opinion was served by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.
modern economist, Vladimir Tikhomir , I fully agree with the opinion of Kudrin. According to the economist, the recovery of the economy and the achieved level of stability are just a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.
The fall of the ruble as a national currency and the strong growth of the dollar portends Nikolai Salabuto . While holding the post of head of Finnam Management, the reason for this situation is associated with the imminent fall in oil prices over the course of several months.
According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the mark 200 rubles per dollar .
Igor believes that several factors influenced this:
Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion about the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that the current measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to subject the bank's policy to rethinking.
But this will in no way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of Finnam Management, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors cited above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.
Sergey Khestanov , the director of ALOR Group of Companies, believes that the factors of the depreciation of the ruble can be conditionally divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.
Subjective factors include those that have no justification from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses his original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.
Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These are external sanctions of other states, and the country's external debt.
It is impossible to predict the behavior of these factors, but the analyst is sure that the price of oil in $74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall of the ruble. This price will help reduce 10-15 % from the current value of the ruble.
The opinion of a modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagin , more reassuring. He believes that the position of the ruble today is the starting point. The analyst says that already in 2019, the national currency will adapt to the current situation and begin grow .
These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of one of them, it is necessary for oneself to understand the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.
The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar compared to the ruble. This dependency is shown as follows: with the rise of the dollar, the price of oil is falling, respectively the ruble is losing ground . When oil prices rise, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.
Graph of the dependence of the value of the ruble on the cost of oil
Impossible to predict oil price in 2019. The External Economic Bank predicts the cost of 6 $0 per barrel or more . At the same time, the resistance level of this price is at the price of $70, and the support level is $42.
Thanks to the news about the reduction in oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of a barrel of oil is rising. Resistance at this stage is $69-70. If these levels are broken through, the price of oil will probably “go” to $98-100. When “breaking through” down $58, it goes to the range of $53-58
At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil took the position of an absolute minimum over the past decade and was equal to $28 per barrel. That is, the cost of oil can take any price at any time of the year.
For a long time, the ruble has not been able to stabilize its position against other foreign currencies, such as dollar and Euro. Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble lost most of its value.
Some foreign states, experiencing economic crises, also observed a decline in the national currency. The foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and about the national currency rate, in particular.
Fluctuations of the ruble may be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions on the part of the state and its government.
The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts about the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2019, and the dollar will cost about 58-60 Russian rubles. As for the cost of oil, it will stabilize at $63 per barrel.
Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion about the country's economy in an interview for a leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to introduce measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some states, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the possibility of entering the global financial market.
Vnesheconombank believes that in 2019 the price per US dollar will be 55-58 rubles if the policy of OPEC will contribute to raising quotations per barrel of oil to 75-80 dollars.
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial cash flows directed to our country will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state, among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid depletion of production capacity as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.
Do not forget that an industry such as the oil and gas industry will also suffer due to lack of funding, and as a result, the inability to work at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect foreign exchange relations, which will not play in favor of our currency.
One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, gives not the most optimistic forecasts for the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.
According to one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs , by 2019 the exchange rate of the national currency will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be $70 per barrel.
All world banks agree that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthening. Forecasting the rise in oil prices cannot but rejoice. But, to raise the economy as a whole, you will have to stock up patience and baggage of actions, because a quick return to the former situation is not worth waiting for.
The issue of abolishing and limiting the US currency has been troubling the population for some time now. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.
At the moment, the government is taking all sorts of actions to reduce the dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of adviser to the president, proposed his plan for the economic development of the country. One of the points of the plan is precisely the reduction of the dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by saying that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliatory strike.
It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the world financial system. The policy of the state is primarily aimed at eliminating the dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to the growth of the national currency of Russia.
For example, trade in Russia's national resource, as natural gas for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to drop in relation to the ruble. If large countries decide to sell US Treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will collapse in an instant.
City Express CEO Alexey Kichatov assesses the chances of abolishing the dollar in the country as minimal. Kichatov claims that this will be a powerful blow to the Russian economy.
In addition, he predicts the difficulties that the Russian people expect, since the savings of the population, to a greater extent, are stored in dollars.
Anton Soroko does not exclude partial disappearance of the dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, it will take a long time, which will eventually lead to the emergence of two rates of shadow turnover. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to fight the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two exchange rates were formed in the country: official and unofficial.
In forecasting the course, you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future, they are too suspicious and unstable.
Since no significant change and stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, as there are no special reasons for the stabilization of the exchange rate.
We remind you that fresh forecasts and analytics regarding the exchange rate of the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at link here 📊.
The exchange rate of the ruble, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investments will be made in Russian capital, assets and economy, the more reliable will be the position of the national currency. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is connected with the position of the dollar in the country.
The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected import balance and export . These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must have an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from the country exceeds the import of imported goods, this allows you to enrich the state budget.
Speaking of this balance, it must be remembered that America has the largest public debt
. In addition, the US has a large budget deficit, which forms the country's domestic debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar, as a world currency, should fall.
But questions arise why, in such a situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.
People trust the dollar because the American currency is highly liquid and the most convertible currency in the world. Why experts' forecasts do not come true from year to year, and why does the dollar remain the most demanded currency in the world? ? What are the consequences of the fall of the dollar?
If the dollar falls anyway, to be replaced by another currency. It is necessary to think about what kind of currency could replace the dollar in terms of convertibility, liquidity and reliability.
Many experts cite Euro to replace dollar. But do not forget that the EU currency is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis . This is first of all Greece, Portugal, Spain and others.
The reason for this stagnation is also America's large debt to these countries. The euro also depends on the dollar, more precisely on its exchange rate.
The dollar remained the most stable currency, even when all countries were going through a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets were falling in price. This helped the dollar strengthen its position even more. Even in a crisis, when everything was depreciating, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.
Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion rate, many countries use as a currency basket exactly the dollar . This diversification occurs in order to save the accumulated funds and their possible increase.
This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. The use of the dollar as a currency basket contributes to stability and demand for the national currency of America.
The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the exchange rate of its currency at a high level. If rumors are to be believed, the economic crisis was actually caused by one of America's "powerful moves" that was staged to support the national course.
In 2008, in order to maintain the economic situation in America, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period it was over a trillion dollars printed.
America's actions did not lead to inflation, as the demand for the dollar did not decrease. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar will not fall.
The fall of the dollar is possible only in such cases as:
If each country, when trading and buying, uses its own national currency, and not the dollar, then the exchange rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity, it will become less in demand.
We have already described in detail the possible forecasts for the dollar. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the decision of the Fed. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed plans to raise interest rates in the near future, which could negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.
Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our visions for the ruble and dollar exchange rate, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyses.
From the latest technical analysis, it follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make forecasts on your own. No one knows the exact forecasts!!!
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Analyzing all the forecasts of world famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for a speedy stabilization of Russia's national course. You just need to stock up on a certain baggage of patience, the strengthening of the ruble will soon occur.
But despite such bright prospects, it is worth understanding that Russia today does not have the best economic situation, which can be affected by various actions, and not only internal , but also external political factors taken by the policies of other states.
A very precarious situation, the national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the people of Russia. According to official statistics, in the past two years Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves. Spending was stopped, but if oil prices continue to decline, Russia will face total budget deficit.
After all, the country's income will drop significantly, and to maintain a functioning level of the economy of such a huge state, considerable funds are required. The opinions of experts and leading banks, of course, are promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.
All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for an improvement in the level of wages and pensions.
It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, raise the level of the economy and the level of the gross domestic product.
But you need to look at the current situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making contributions to national banks.
We hope that you now understand that the answer to the questions - "What will happen to the dollar in the near future?", "What will happen to the ruble?" Everyone is looking for himself, making his own forecasts and relying on his own principles.
If you have questions and suggestions, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.
In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video
The last ten days of June became a definite moment of truth for the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the dollar and the euro. On June 21, the dollar exchange rate for the first time in four months exceeded 60 rubles, and the euro for the first time in six months turned out to be more expensive than 67 rubles. Apparently, the ruble will continue to weaken further. Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for July 2017 in Russia: experts' forecasts on how events will develop on the currency exchanges at the beginning of the second half of 2017.
Economists are talking about several reasons why the dollar began to sharply gain value against the ruble. The main one is, of course, the price of oil on world exchanges that has fallen to $45 per barrel, although a month ago oil was quoted at about $54 per barrel.
An important factor was also the desire of the Central Bank of Russia to weaken too strong, according to government economists, the national currency. At the same time, many months of attempts to do this by buying up foreign currency on the domestic market turned out to be not very effective, but against the backdrop of cheaper oil, the described tactics of the Russian economic authorities finally played.
The basic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development indicates that at the end of 2017 the dollar will have to cost 68 rubles, and at the beginning of 2018 - already 70.8 rubles.
Accordingly, as long as the exchange rate of the US dollar moves towards the indicated values, the weakening of the ruble at least takes place under the control of the regulator and in accordance with a certain plan. Although it is not a fact that this should reassure the country's population, which will at least feel the growth of ruble prices for imported goods.
Another factor to take into account is the reduction of the key rate in the US. The decision of the Federal Reserve System of this country reduced the interest of investors in such markets as the Russian one, which also does not play into the hands of the ruble.
Taking into account everything described above, one should not expect the former stability from the ruble and, moreover, its strengthening. If the analysts' assumptions are correct, and the Russian economic authorities have set a course for the weakening of the national currency, the gradual depreciation of the ruble will continue.
This is evidenced by the forecast of the dollar exchange rate for July 2017 in Russia, the forecasts of Moscow APEKON experts say the following:
During the month, experts expect fluctuations in the dollar from 62.43 to 65.26 rubles. Thus, by August, according to the forecast of the dollar exchange rate for July 2017 in Russia from the agency's experts, the American currency will rise in price by almost two rubles or three percent compared to the end of June.
In practice, the current events mean that people who are planning foreign exchange transactions, preparing for a summer vacation or for other reasons, should definitely take into account the new trend in the dollar (and, consequently, the euro). If you need to purchase foreign currency, it is better to do it right now, and if you need to exchange it for rubles, it makes sense to wait a while until the rate is even higher.
The current circumstances force almost all citizens to carefully monitor the foreign exchange market, and what will happen to the dollar in 2017, namely, in July,- a new forecast for the ruble exchange rate for July has already been prepared by specialists, and we will talk about it in our material.
The ruble exchange rate has not been stable over the past years, and this becomes the reason for constant analytics in this area. Judging from the outside, foreign currency is present in almost all spheres of life of Russians, this is the formation of wages, the pricing policy of trade enterprises, and the working nuances that are so important for entrepreneurs. That's why dollar exchange rate forecast for July 2017 so much interests not only businessmen, but also ordinary citizens.
To receive you need to fresh dollar exchange rate forecast for july 2017, the experts had to analyze a lot of statistical data, but even this does not give a 100% guarantee that the information will be really accurate, because the slightest political or economic changes can affect the value of the currency. The predicted dollar exchange rate ranges from fifty-five to sixty-four rubles, at least these are the boundaries provided by the Ministry of Economic Development.
On the one hand, such a forecast of the dollar exchange rate for July 2017 allows us to hope for the strengthening of the national currency, at least in comparison with last year. This is confirmed by the heads of the ministry and other economic specialists who regularly monitor the exchange rate of the ruble. But on the other hand, some analysts' forecasts are not so comforting, although they talk about the impossibility of exceeding the rate of fifty-nine rubles, they note a high probability of instability and fluctuations in the value of the currency.
We have analyzed and fresh dollar exchange rate forecast for July 2017, which was presented by foreign experts. Here they talk about the probable value of the US currency in the amount of sixty-two rubles, although such a forecast can be called quite bold, given the stabilization of prices on the oil market.
The dollar exchange rate directly depends on foreign investment and the country's economic situation, so it is rather difficult to talk about any guarantees. It is enough to study the predictive values that experts provide us with, constant changes are based on the occurrence of one or another unforeseen situation, innovations and unexpected changes. For example, any unplanned sanctions can radically change the exchange rate of the ruble in the shortest possible time. With the most favorable forecasts, the ruble may strengthen against another currency, but experts do not undertake to give a 100% guarantee.
The dollar exchange rate for July 2017 forecast in Russia - will the USD fall and the ruble strengthen? What is the objective reality of what is happening, is it worth buying the dollar now?
The exchange rate of the national currency is, in fact, a reflection of the power of the economy. Even if we discard the devaluation of 1998, the ruble is weaker than the dollar by 65 units. The Russian economy is weaker than the US economy by 65 units.
If we compare other indicators, then Russia is much weaker than the United States everywhere - GDP per capita (RF - 48th place, USA - 9th), GDP (3565 RF against 17419 in the USA), etc. If we compare the Russian economy with the economies of NATO countries, it turns out that less than 3% compete with 70%. Import substitution in Russia is catastrophically low - about 20-30%, in fact, we produce only a part of textiles and food products.
It is clear that in the course of political showdowns, the stronger countries of the West, through economic sanctions, easily push through our national currency. Now, while the “lost” Buryats and the “fired” GRU special forces are waging war on foreign territory, and the government, instead of saving production, is investing in the military-industrial complex, which will not bring any added value, to the dollar exchange rate for July 2017 forecast in Russia there can be no positive predictions. The Minsk agreements only managed to weaken the conflict, but it cannot be stopped - the war is on, sanctions are not lifted, business in Russia is regressing.
The best scenario for the ruble is an end to the conflict in Ukraine, a strengthening of the Minsk agreements and negotiations that will ease the wave of sanctions. Then we can talk about a more or less stable dollar exchange rate of 55-58 rubles. But you need to understand that even in this situation, the forecasts of experts are far from rosy - the economy is driven below the plinth, it needs to be raised by the whole country. Under the USSR, the share of GDP in the world economy reached 11% - and this is due to the cult of labor. Today, there is no work left - only leavened patriotism, the St. George ribbon and the shaking of rusty weapons.
According to the forecast, the dollar rate has three points: the upper one is 56 rubles per dollar, the middle one is 54.5, the lower one is 53. Analysts predict the strengthening of the ruble.
According to the statements made by the leading experts of the world banking organizations in the USA and Great Britain, the dollar will strengthen in 2017. But it should be noted that this is a preliminary forecast and you need to carefully monitor the statistical and economic indicators.
The stable position of the ruble is particularly influenced by foreign investments, as well as the economic situation in Russia. It should be noted that forecasts of changes in the exchange rate are made constantly, however, indicators often change due to unforeseen circumstances, for example, the introduction of unplanned sanctions from European countries.
On Friday, trading on the Moscow Exchange opened with a decline in the dollar and the euro. The ruble continued to win back losses against the background of the absence of a decline in oil prices and an overdue correction after a six-day weakening. Additional support was provided by the tax period, the peak of which falls on June 26. The dollar exchange rate fell by 0.92%, to 59.38 rubles, the euro exchange rate - by 0.61%, to 66.47 rubles.
On Monday, at auction in Asia, a barrel of Brent is worth $46.04 (+0.82%). In connection with the morning growth of oil prices since the opening of the Moscow Exchange, we should expect the ruble to strengthen against the dollar and the euro.
At the moment, the rise in oil prices is regarded by traders as a classic correction after the collapse in prices last week. You can talk about a change in trend at the close of the trading session on Monday above $46.60 per barrel. With a further increase in oil prices, the dollar will reach 58.82 rubles. Closing the day below 58.82 rubles. put an end to the further weakening of the ruble.
