The beginning of 2017 was characterized by relative stability in the Russian foreign exchange market. This state of affairs is explained by the adaptation of the Russian economy to foreign policy challenges, as well as the slowdown in the recession. All of these factors make it possible to predict the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US in the current 2017. To make an objective forecast, 9 independent experts were interviewed, on the basis of which a table with consensus forecasts of the dollar exchange rate for the months of 2017 was compiled.
| Month | Average forecast, rub. |
| February 2017 | 59,62 |
| March 2017 | 58,73 |
| April 2017 | 58,94 |
| May 2017 | 61,42 |
| June 2017 | 61,54 |
| July 2017 | 62,08 |
| August 2017 | 64,01 |
| September 2017 | 65,43 |
| October 2017 | 64,52 |
| November 2017 | 65,0 |
| December 2017 | 65.42 |
As can be seen from the table, during February, March and April 2017, the dollar exchange rate will not exceed 60 rubles. Such a strengthening of the national currency is due to seasonal factors, from May 2017 there will be a gradual increase in the value of the American currency.
In the summer months - June, July and August, the dollar will continue to rise and at the beginning of autumn, in September 2017, it will exceed 65 rubles. Over the next months of 2017: October, November and December, we will observe a period of stabilization of the Russian ruble against the US dollar.
Moscow has been trying in recent years to achieve trade in national currencies with Cairo, Beijing, New Delhi, Ankara and many others. But the latest dollar exchange rate forecasts for 2017 show that the dependence of the Russian economy on the value of the dollar is still too great. Denying it is stupid.
Of course, no one can give a guaranteed forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2017. However, it is possible to highlight the main points that can increase or decrease the value of the national currency of the Russian Federation.
Senior Analyst of the largest brokerage company Alpari Roman Tkachuk shared his thoughts with the editors and gave his fresh forecast for the dollar for 2017:
Roman Tkachuk | Youtube
« Firstly, the general trend of the strengthening of the dollar in world markets remains in force, parity between the dollar and the euro is likely next year. Secondly, over the past year, the ruble has actually developed immunity to fluctuations in oil prices. This is due, among other things, to the fact that the Russian budget has become less dependent on petrodollars. In addition, in 2016, the volatility of Brent was up to 3-5% per day, these are normal intraday fluctuations for a commodity asset, but not for the national currency, so the ruble exchange rate was smoother.
If for another 2-3 years the ruble exchange rate followed the oil quotes as a pegged one, now the dependence has decreased. Nevertheless, the oil factor remains decisive for the ruble. Now the oil market is positive, and we do not exclude that in late 2016-early 2017 Brent will test the level of 60-61 dollars per barrel. Against this background, USD/RUB may reach the psychological level of 60, and EUR/RUB – the level of 63.5.
Past not yet fully incorporated into the ruble exchange rate. If we look at the cost of a barrel in rubles, now it is at the level of 3612.7, and this is a two-year high. So the potential for the ruble to strengthen in the near future remains.
However, the latest dollar exchange rate forecasts for 2017, as well as market sentiment, may change. The reason may be the failure to comply with agreements between oil-producing countries to reduce quotas by individual participants (from a technological point of view, it is difficult to sharply reduce production, and investments in individual projects for 2017 have already been allocated) and the activation of shale projects (at an oil price of $60 per barrel, they return to profitability). In my opinion, in the first or second quarter of 2017, Brent may roll back to $50-55 per barrel, against this background, the position of the ruble will also weaken».
« How will it affect the ruble while it's hard to say. On the one hand, foreign policy pressure on Russia may ease. On the other hand, Trump advocates the energy independence of the United States, shale projects may become more active in the coming years, and this is negative for oil and ruble quotes.
In our opinion, the current positive on the foreign exchange market should be taken as a New Year's gift, for example, you can buy currency with a "New Year's discount", especially if you plan to spend New Year's holidays at Christmas sales in Europe or at Alpine ski resorts».
Kommersant Bogdan Zvarich, an analyst from the FINAM group of companies, said that the dollar exchange rate in 2017, as before, will mainly depend on the price of oil. However, the expert also warned that the excessive strengthening of the ruble should not be rejoiced, as this could lead to negative consequences:
“In my opinion, the main factor for the Russian currency will be the dynamics of oil prices. And here the players will carefully monitor how the agreements reached within OPEC and OPEC+ are observed. If exporters manage not to violate their obligations, as well as these agreements are extended to the second half of 2017, this will provide significant support to the ruble. However, we do not expect a strong strengthening.
It is quite possible that the average dollar exchange rate in 2017 will be about 60 rubles. Further strengthening of the ruble is not beneficial either for the government, as it will reduce the volume of tax revenues from oil and gas companies, and for producers – the real sector will lose its competitiveness with the strengthening of the ruble.”
As for more precise figures, one should look at the forecasts of serious financial institutions both in the West and in Russia itself. We list only the most significant and latest dollar exchange rate forecasts for 2017:
As a result, the dollar exchange rate forecast for 2017 has the following “medium limits” - from 65 to 80 rubles per dollar. As for the floating prices by quarters, there are many political factors. If we look at 2017 chronologically, the following picture emerges:
Also, the dollar exchange rate for 2017 (experts agree here) will not “jump” if the US Federal Reserve still does not decide to raise the interest rate.
Forecast of the dollar/ruble exchange rate in Russia for December 2017. What will happen to the currency at the end of the year? Will the dollar collapse? Read the opinions of experts and analysts. The materials were prepared by Natalya Gredina.
Analysts disagree: someone is predicting a bright future for the ruble thanks to good reviews from rating agencies regarding Russia, rising oil prices and taxes. Others say that all this is a drop in the ocean, and the ruble will continue to weaken like the Mexican peso due to Trump's reforms and the newly increased investment attractiveness of the United States. Experts tried to explain what the ruble will be like in the outgoing year and whether it was affected by hurricanes and nuclear missiles. NGS.BUSINESS provides focus survey data.
Analysts from Otkritie Broker JSC predict that the Russian currency will strengthen, and the dollar will cost 55 rubles in December. In their opinion, there was no surprise, experts predicted this indicator back in January, that is, the ruble continues to “smoothly” strengthen. Analyst of the market analysis department of the Investment Advisory Department of Otkritie Broker JSC Timur Nigmatullin notes that this is due to rising oil prices, as well as due to the large number of ruble bonds purchased by investors, which also affected the course. In part, oil began to rise in price after hurricane Irma, which attacked the United States, he noted.
So far, the Russians have not rushed to invest in foreign currency, Nigmatullin states, even despite the turbulent situation in the banking sector and the widespread closure of small banks. This is also evidenced by a recent VTsIOM survey: according to sociologists, in 2017, 29% of Russians called opening a bank account the most reliable investment (in 2015, this figure was 21%), while at the same time, only 10% of respondents are interested in currency (since 2015 2% of the respondents increased their confidence in it).
Vadim Iosub, senior analyst at Alpari, believes that the ruble will be supported by positive world ratings and an active tax period in the remaining year. In particular, the leading rating agency Fitch, which is one of the "big three" appraisers, has published a rating in which Russia has a sufficient level of creditworthiness. “The agency has affirmed Russia's rating at investment grade BBB- and revised its outlook from stable to positive. Fitch noted the country's success in economic policy based on a flexible ruble exchange rate, commitment to inflation targeting and a prudent budget strategy,” Iosub said in a correspondence with NGS.BUSINESS.
The ruble will also strengthen thanks to taxes - the end of the year is just the peak period, Iosub notes.
In addition, the strengthening of the ruble will be affected by slower inflation, due to which investors have increased interest in Russian government securities, he said. According to the Alpari analyst, this week the dollar will cost about 56.9-58.1 rubles, and the euro - up to 68.0-69.3 rubles, both currencies continue to fall in price.
Bogdan Zvarich, senior analyst at Freedom Finance, also argues that the ruble will strengthen due to oil prices, “despite the worsening relations between Russia and its Western partners,” possibly referring to the extension of sanctions by the European Union. Nevertheless, today Brent oil is stably worth 2600-3400 rubles, he notes. Zvarich believes that, despite the cataclysms and other factors, the level of the national currency will still depend only on this price. “And the Russian currency will hardly be able to get rid of this factor in the coming years.
Yes, some other factors, in particular political ones, make adjustments to the dynamics of the ruble, but for the most part they are temporary in nature and in the future the ruble returns to the energy market,” the analyst said.
At the same time, the prices themselves are formed ambiguously, Zvarich noted. They are also affected by the limitation of oil production, which, according to the OPEC agreement, will last until the end of the first quarter of 2018, as well as the decline in oil reserves in the United States, which, according to the analyst, will last until mid-October. “Both of these factors to one degree or another will continue to support the energy market until the end of the year. As a result, it is unlikely that Brent oil will be able to go below $50 per barrel and gain a foothold below this level for a long time. Also, we do not expect oil to rise above $60 per barrel. The fact is that such a scenario stimulates the growth of production in the United States and will lead to an increase in supply on the market, which will put pressure on prices and will not allow the market to gain a foothold above this value, ”he comments.
Thus, the ruble is unlikely to fall, the analyst concludes. The maximum price of the dollar at the end of the year will be 64 rubles, he believes, but such a scenario is unlikely - most likely, against the backdrop of strengthening oil prices, it will cost 56-57.5 rubles already in mid-autumn.
VTB24 analyst Alexei Mikheev is not so sure about the ruble exchange rate and calls it “floating”. The expert agrees that it will mainly depend on oil prices, however, he does not exclude the influence of the general investment background in the world, including demand for assets of developing countries and the dollar exchange rate in the Forex market. VTB24 expects that by the end of the year investors will switch their attention from these risky assets, and the dollar will eventually begin to grow. “Assets of all kinds are now at highs of a year or more, markets are overheated against the dollar. This applies to global stock markets, commodity markets, and currencies of developing and even developed countries,” he notes.
The dollar will definitely rise due to events in the United States, Mikheev notes.
There, the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy and has already raised rates 4 times, but the dollar has only fallen this year, so risk appetite outweighed. Until the end of 2018, analysts expect 4 more Fed rate hikes, while the balance sheet will shrink from this October, which will certainly strengthen the US currency. The VTB24 analyst gives the most unfavorable forecast for the Russian at the end of the year: according to his estimates, the dollar will cost 65 rubles, and the euro - 72 rubles.
Analysts from Alfa-Bank agree with Mikheev, according to their observations, due to the actions of the Fed, the dollar is indeed seriously strengthening. Capital from emerging, risky markets is flowing away, the ruble is weakening, and even rising oil prices will not be able to support it, they say.
“After more than six months of Donald Trump's presidency, it has become clear that the sanctions regime will last longer than expected, in addition, the likelihood of new sanctions is increasing, and the possibility of resuming the Russian-American dialogue is beginning to decrease. Although the sanctions concern individuals and companies and do not affect the sovereign level, they still entail a new wave of negativity in relation to Russian assets, which may alienate investors from the Russian market,” analysts report.
“Even before the new wave of geopolitical tensions, the ruble was in an advantageous position in comparison with the currencies of other developing countries and almost did not react to the May decline in oil prices.
However, even now the ruble is ignoring the recovery in oil prices: although they recently exceeded $60 per barrel, the ruble remains under pressure,” experts add.
Experts give an ambiguous forecast for the dollar exchange rate for December 2017, and disagree on where the ruble will move and what role the dollar will play for the Russian currency.
Of course, the people of Russia are already accustomed to the fact that by the end of the year it is invariably declining, on the back of the strengthening of the dollar and the euro.
However, there were experts who argue that by the end of this year, the ruble will go up, not down. If we consider the analytical statements on this issue, then the opinions are divided into two opposite groups.
Some experts seriously believe that in December the ruble will continue to slightly but still noticeably strengthen against the dollar, and the US currency will give up its positions.
Others call the ruble exchange rate floating, and the dollar an increasingly attractive currency for timely investments.
So, optimists issue a dollar exchange rate forecast for December 2017 in the region of 55 rubles per unit.
Pessimists look at the current situation more sensibly: there are those who seriously believe that the dollar rate will confidently stay around 65 rubles per unit.
We tend to see the truth in the second option: only in November, the dollar showed a not too strong, but quite confident growth from 57 to 59 with a little rubles, so its further growth will not raise any questions.
The tightening of monetary policy led to the fact that the Federal rate was raised four times. Next year, a repeated increase in the rate is also expected with a decrease in the balance sheet.
This will be one of the factors that will strengthen the dollar. The attraction of the dollar is so strong that assets of all kinds are now trading at the highest of the year, and the market is overheated against the dollar.
In turn, such popularity of the American currency has led to the fact that capital from the markets of developing countries is slowly changing its movement, risky markets are without funding, and investments are directed to developed countries.
In addition, the sanctions regime against Russia is likely to last indefinitely. Yes, and the Trump presidency says that new sanctions will be introduced that will aggravate the position of the ruble.
As for , so far the ruble ignores the stability of the oil market and the growth in the cost of a barrel of raw materials. If earlier the ruble responded quite sensitively to the growth of oil, today we do not observe this connection.
As long as the ruble exchange rate remains under pressure from several weighty factors at once, one should not expect that the Russian currency will be able to strengthen. This means that the estimated dollar exchange rate of 65-67 rubles per unit is quite realistic.
It is also worth noting that interest in the domestic debt market is gradually declining, despite the continuing trend towards a decrease in inflationary pressure, which may be a leading signal of a gradual curtailment of large-scale trading on interest rate differences. The key rate of the Bank of Russia - forecasts At the meeting in April, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, unexpectedly for many, lowered the key rate quite sharply - from 9.75 to 9.25% per annum. Most experts predicted a more gradual rate cut by the regulator. The Bank of Russia statement also notes that inflation has already approached the target level of 4%, and inflation expectations are steadily declining. In the future, the Central Bank plans to closely monitor the dynamics of oil prices and "development of the economy relative to the forecast." Experts predict a rate cut by another 25 bp. meeting on June 16, 2017.
All together makes Bloomberg's forecasts disappointing and, according to reputable traders, the process has already begun - the latest news reports that tax revenue in March 2017 decreased by 2.8% compared to March 2015.
Attention
Table of changes in the dollar exchange rate since the beginning of the year Date Rate Change May 3 56.9518 +0.9912 April 1 55.9606 -2.0021 March 1 57.9627 -2.1224 February 1 60.0851 +0.189 January 10 59.8961 Latest news: what will happen to the ruble and where to keep your savings<этот сохранится, то курс немного ослабнет».
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The dollar forecast for June this year is rather unusual.
By the way, the Central Bank is of the same opinion.
According to official statements, at the end of this summer, Sberbank expects the dollar to fall to 48 rubles. The same forecast was published by Alfabank. However, for Russia, such a ruble exchange rate is not the best.
Now the oil quotes, first of all, will be influenced by news from the US. According to some experts, the car season in June may stop the decline in oil prices. In addition, follow the weekly statistics on US oil reserves and the number of active oil rigs.
The trends of recent months confirm the fears about the growth in the production of "black gold" in the United States.
Zenit Bank analyst Vladimir Evstigneev notes that the Russian ruble reacted poorly to the decline in oil prices after the results of the meeting in the OPEC + format.
Apart from oil, the ruble has no reason to fall now, but if the volatility of commodity markets increases, then the Russian currency will not have a chance to maintain current levels of exchange rates.
The statement that the oil countries will continue to comply with the previously concluded agreement did not become an impetus for the growth of oil, which means that the dollar has every chance to grow.
Most American experts are confident that the growth of the national currency is inevitable.
If Ukraine does not end, and oil does not rise in price, we will be able to observe the strengthening of the dollar very soon.
Anastasia Ignatenko, a leading analyst of the TeleTrade group of companies, believes that only the overcoming of the psychological mark of $51-51.50 per barrel of Brent oil can help the growth of the dollar. At the same time, she notes that the positions of the American currency look rather weak and even oil, which is on the border of a growing trend, is unable to help it: “the USD/RUB pair closed April in positive territory, but there has not yet been a reversal.”
Bloomberg also believes that there are all signs of a financial storm that is coming to America: a 9.8% decline in corporate profits in the first quarter of the year, failed investments - all this will eventually lead to a classic crisis.
Analysts assume that GDP growth will continue in the future, which indicates that the negative effects of the recession have been successfully overcome. However, external factors can again undermine the country's economy. Read also the latest dollar exchange rate forecast for July 2017. IMF staff identified several factors that could weaken the current position:
Improvements in the economy lead to the strengthening of the Russian ruble, which continues to strengthen against all world currencies. The exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar also fell as a result of an improvement in the trade balance. The period from the beginning of January to March is favorable for the national currency, as the number of export operations increases during this period.
Former Russian finance minister, now head of the Center for Strategic Research Alexei Kudrin, believes that the dollar will cost 60 rubles. He connects such a disappointing forecast for the dollar exchange rate for June 2017 with oil prices, or rather, with volatility, which affects the low exchange rate of the Russian national currency.
Dollar exchange rate: experts' forecasts I agree with the forecast of the ex-head of the Ministry of Finance and the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin - earlier he announced the expected decline of the ruble in 2-3 quarters of this year, which will be caused by seasonal factors.
The ministry prepared a forecast by analysts, according to which the dollar exchange rate in Russia will reach the level of 68 rubles at the end of 2017 and 70.8 rubles at the end of 2018.
July 1993June 1993May 1993April 1993March 1993February 1993January 1993December 1992November 1992October 1992September 1992August 1992July 1992<< Дата Курс 30.06.2017 59.085500 29.06.2017 59.541500 28.06.2017 58.884300 27.06.2017 59.001400 26.06.2017 59.656400 25.06.2017 59.656400 24.06.2017 59.656400 23.06.2017 60.148200 22.06.2017 60.000000 21.06.2017 58.578600 20.06.2017 57.958500 19.06.2017 57.740800 18.06.2017 57.740800 17.06.2017 57.740800 16.06.2017 57.443700 15.06.2017 57.030300 14.06.2017 56.909600 13.06.2017 57.002000 12.06.2017 57.002000 11.06.2017 57.002000 10.06.2017 57.002000 09.06.2017 56.985700 08.06.2017 56.587800 07.06.2017 56.674700 06.06.2017 56.615200 05.06.2017 56.687600 04.06.2017 56.687600 03.06.2017 56.687600 02.06.2017 56.537300 01.06.2017 56.687600 Вы также может рассчитать сегодняшний курс Доллар США история курса валюты на нашем валютном калькуляторе.
