Obviously, it was conceived as an attempt to take revenge for the failure of last year's summit of the Eurasian Economic Union in St. Petersburg. Recall that Alexander Lukashenko did not appear at all at the traditional New Year's Eve gatherings, and the President of Kyrgyzstan Almazbek Atambayev publicly expressed doubts about the expediency of signing some joint documents by his country.
Obvious disagreements forced experts to characterize the state of affairs in the union with the words of Krylov’s famous fable: “When there is no agreement among the comrades, their business will not go well, and nothing will come out of it - only flour.” However, the leaders themselves do not agree with this assessment. “Cooperation within the EAEU is progressing successfully. Our common market worked as a kind of “safety cushion”: integration institutions neutralized the impact of unfavorable external conditions, and national economies were able to adapt to new realities,” Vladimir Putin said in Bishkek, somewhat belatedly summing up the results of the past year.
It is obvious that the meeting of the presidents in full force became possible after the settlement of the Russian-Belarusian conflict. In early April, after five hours of negotiations, the father managed not only to successfully resolve all oil and gas issues, but also to get Vladimir Putin to allocate another $1 billion to support the balance of payments. Apparently, this money, like other loans (and since 2011, Moscow has given $6 billion to Minsk through various mechanisms) will never return to the Russian budget, but Alexander Lukashenko has temporarily returned to the Eurasian “family”. And before the trip to Bishkek, he even put his signature under the Customs Code of the EAEU, which should ensure the growth of the still insignificant trade turnover within the Union.
However, at the summit, the leaders preferred not to speak publicly about the benefits of this long-suffering document. Now the code must be ratified in all participating countries, and this, as experience shows, is not a quick process. For example, it took EAEU members three (!) years to remove all barriers to the creation of a single drug market.
"It's one thing to consolidate sound ideas in documents, and quite another to put them into practice. Here the Union has enough unresolved problems," Alexander Lukashenko criticized his colleagues for being slow. Of the four basic principles declared during the formation of the EAEU - the freedom of movement of goods, finance, services and labor resources - at the very least, only one has been implemented so far, which ensures the rights of labor migrants. The movement of goods, as evidenced by the endless trade wars between Russia and Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, depends much more on relations between neighbors than on the provisions of union documents. On the most sensitive issues - oil, gas and finance - a lot of unresolved issues remain, and they are supposed to be resolved until 2025, after the expiration of the next term of Vladimir Putin's presidency (if, of course, he goes to the polls).
Having familiarized himself with the agenda of the summit, a significant part of which, in order to avoid another showdown, was planned to be devoted to the prospects for cooperation with foreign states, Lukashenka urged his colleagues to focus primarily on the internal problems of the EAEU. In order for 2017 to become a turning point for the union, the presidents, according to the Belarusian leader, need to make important adjustments to its work. First, refuse to adopt new documents that "are discriminatory in relation to partners."
Secondly, to clarify the list of exemptions and restrictions that impede the formation of a single market for goods and services, and to check how work is being done to eliminate them. (Recall that last year there were about 600 restrictions on this list)
And thirdly, to develop a mechanism for the functioning of the EAEU in conditions when one of the participants closes its market to third countries, as happened as a result of the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv and the EU. “If this problem is not solved, internal contradictions in the Union will grow like a snowball,” complained the father, whom Russia, as you know, continues to accuse of re-exporting banned European and Ukrainian goods.
Although much of Lukashenka's fiery speech was addressed directly to Vladimir Putin, the Russian president's response to it was rather restrained. In his opinion, there will be no problems with transit and compliance with the food embargo if the customs authorities of the EAEU countries create an electronic system for monitoring the movement of goods. “This needs to be done as soon as possible,” says VVP. Then it will immediately be clear who, what, from where and where is lucky and according to what documents.
President of Moldova Igor Dodon, who arrived in Bishkek to declare the readiness of the "simple Moldovan people" to join the integration processes in the EAEU, returned to the original agenda of the leaders' summit. “Currently, we have an association agreement with the European Union, but it does not contradict the signing of other agreements that are beneficial for Moldova,” Dodon stressed. Especially for the Moldovan leader, the EAEU participants had to come up with an observer status, which was not initially provided for by the documents of the union. As Atambaev explained, Moldova will be able to get it after it goes through a formal procedure that has yet to be developed. Dodon stressed that this is only the first step "for more in-depth integration processes." Earlier, he promised to withdraw the agreement with the EU as soon as his supporters get a majority in parliament. “You can be sure: in my person you got a partner and a friend!” he assured the participants of the summit.
It is noteworthy that with his enthusiasm, Dodon unwittingly jeopardized Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, who for several years successfully avoided joining the EAEU, citing the need to carefully study the experience of "small economies", i.e. Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov has already stated that Tajikistan will no longer need someone else's experience: it will be able to form an opinion about the union by obtaining the status of an EAEU observer and joining the work of its bodies.
The stumbling block was the gas price for Belarus - Lukashenko was indignant that it was higher than domestic Russian. However, then the Belarusian leader apologized for the discussion in "bad form." What did Putin say?
Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin. Photo: Mikhail Metzel/TASS
Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko argued over gas prices. This happened in St. Petersburg at the summit of the Eurasian Economic Union. The dispute was started by the President of Belarus. He complained, not for the first time, that domestic Russian gas prices are much lower than for Belarus.
But at the same time, the countries are striving for a common economic space, including the energy one, Alexander Grigoryevich noted. Vladimir Putin responded to Lukashenka, citing Russian gas prices for Germany as an example. The broadcast from St. Petersburg was conducted by the TV channel "Russia 24":
Alexander Lukashenko: “The current pricing procedure for natural gas supplied to Belarus: the tariff applied by Gazprom for the Belarusian side for transporting gas from the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug to our border is almost $3 per thousand cubic meters per 100 kilometers, while the internal Russian tariff is about one dollar, three times less. Given these circumstances, our country's gas on the border with the Smolensk region costs almost 130 dollars per thousand cubic meters, and the established wholesale price for consumers of the same Smolensk region business entities is 70 dollars. Almost two times lower. A simple question: how to compete in this situation?
Vladimir Putin: “It is not the tariff that is important, but the final price of gas, which includes this tariff, is important. And here you are right, it is necessary, of course, to think about it. But I draw your attention to the fact that today Belarus has $129 per thousand cubic meters. Next year there will be 127, and in Germany - 250. And this, of course, is a great advantage for our allies in the EurAsEC, although, of course, we must strive for complete unification. But this requires time and a different level of integration between our countries.”
However, Alexander Lukashenko did not calm down on this and reminded that the main partner of Belarus is not the FRG, but Russia. And again he spoke about equal conditions for fraternal countries. Putin, in response, again cited Germany as an example. And then Lukashenka remembered the Great Patriotic War:
Alexander Lukashenko: “Our main partner, unfortunately or fortunately, is not Germany, but the Russian Federation. And our main not only partners, but competitors and so on are the Russians. If we produce BelAZ, MAZ tractors and so on in Belarus, everyone says that these are Belarusian products. So that you know, in this Belarusian product, you know, we discussed this issue, and in my village we discussed this issue, 60-70% of the components of the Russian Federation, therefore our main partner is not the FRG, but the Russian Federation. And we need equal conditions, first of all, for our fraternal Russia and Belarus. That is the question".
Vladimir Putin: “I just draw attention to the fact that today our partners already have sufficient advantages. I mentioned Germany for a reason. And in Belarus there should not be 250 per thousand cubic meters. But if Belarus did not have the advantages associated with integration, but formed the price on market principles, it would not be 129 and not 127, but 200. That is the difference.”
Alexander Lukashenko: “Vladimir Vladimirovich, your calculations are wrong. We have worse conditions than Germany. I have already spoken about this more than once. It seems that they fought against Germany together, but our people, who have not yet died after the war, have such a situation. They are 200 dollars, and we, let's say, 130, because we need to pump another three thousand kilometers there, that's why they have such a price. That's why".
Vladimir Putin: “Yes, but if there was a market [price] for Belarus, there would be no 129 and 127. It would be under 200. That's the whole point. Well, let's have a discussion later in closed session."
Alexander Lukashenko: "Good".
However, then Alexander Lukashenko said that he apologized to Putin for initiating a discussion on the gas issue in “bad form”.
In addition, Vladimir Putin recalled that by 2025 a single energy market of the EAEU countries should be formed. And here Lukashenka fully supported the Russian president, but added that steps had to be taken for this. “And if we keep going, there will be no questions,” Lukashenka assured.
The President of Belarus also said that he plans to meet with his Russian counterpart in a week to discuss a number of accumulated issues.
A meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council was held in St. Petersburg. The day before, the President of Belarus stated the need to revise many conditions for the functioning of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Belarusian officials even threatened to withdraw the country from the EAEU if the position of Minsk was not heard.
The heads of the EAEU states met on Wednesday in narrow and expanded formats. The development of integration processes, the implementation of the digital agenda of the union, the formation of common markets for gas, oil and oil products were discussed. The agenda also includes issues related to the main areas of international activity of the EAEU, competition in cross-border markets, cooperation in the provision of space and geoinformation services. An informal meeting of the heads of the CIS countries also took place in St. Petersburg.
The events, which in recent years were often formal, on the eve of sharpness and intrigue were given by the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, who said that he would seek a revision of some agreements in the EAEU and compliance with uniform working conditions for enterprises.
First, he spoke on this topic during the EAEU summit at the level of heads of government, then the opportunity to say whatever he thinks was given to him by the Rossiya TV channel. In a long interview timed to coincide with the EAEU summit in St. Petersburg, the President of Belarus said that he would continue to strive for compliance with the main principles of integration - the free movement of labor, capital, services and goods. “If we talk about our cooperation with Russia within the framework of the Union State and the EAEU, I have one problem: we agreed on the free movement of labor, capital, services, goods, and so on. Without this, the EAEU and even the Customs Union cannot exist,” Alexander Lukashenko said. “It is important for us that we work with Smolensk, Moscow, St. Petersburg enterprises on an equal footing. Then normal competitiveness is created. What is it if an enterprise in Kazakhstan or Russia works in better conditions than ours? This means that we can put an end to our enterprises over time,” the President of Belarus is convinced. He stressed that achieving equal conditions is the main goal of his participation in the current summit.
Now the issue of equal conditions is of a completely applied nature and has a price. It was recently named by the Deputy Minister of Finance of Belarus Andrey Belkovets. The Russian tax maneuver could cost Belarus $10 billion, he said. “Over the course of six years, losses for Belarus, if nothing is changed, will amount to about $10 billion, of which $3 billion are missing budget revenues. 6 billion is the deterioration of the economy of two oil refineries,” he said, speaking at the forum for foreign investors BelarusCrossway’18. “The situation is difficult, and now there is no source that would replace the income from the export of oil and oil products. Therefore, disputes with Russia will continue, and the Belarusian side will take the toughest position,” he specified.
Moreover, Andrei Belkovets threatened that if the parties did not come to a compromise, they would have to return "to the question of the expediency of Belarus being in such an alliance, its further existence." “Such actions by Russia contradict the essence of creating a single economic space, which presupposed the creation of a single energy market. In fact, these agreements will be disavowed. When one side considers it possible to defend only its own interests, while others must agree with this, this will not happen,” he said.
Another initiative of Belarus, announced on the eve of the summit by Alexander Lukashenko himself, is the revision of the mechanism for distributing customs duties in the EAEU. He stated that Belarus would not support the proposal to extend the current duty distribution norm. Recall that, in accordance with it, the share of Belarus is 4.56%, and Russia - 85.265%. “Two years have passed, we looked: yes, we do not receive a certain amount. We understand at whose expense. Russia also receives a little less of these funds. That is why we say: let's, as we agreed then, return in two years and see what happens in fact,” Aleksandr Lukashenko suggested.
Local observers did not fail to notice that before going to the summit, the President of Belarus enlisted the support of his colleague Nursultan Nazarbayev. On the eve of Tuesday, the presidents of Belarus and Kazakhstan spoke by phone. Experts remind that two political aksakals rarely but aptly enter into an alliance within the framework of the EAEU. “For example, they once strongly opposed the single currency and political superstructures within the framework of Eurasian integration,” reminds political observer Alexander Klaskovsky. Now we can talk just about agreeing on a position on the mechanism for distributing customs duties, since the issue of energy prices is not relevant for Kazakhstan.
The speech of President Alexander Lukashenko at the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council was extremely frank and principled, without retouching unresolved issues and problems in the EAEU. The position of Belarus is absolutely clear: there are no equal conditions - there is no union.
Leaders of the EAEU countries.
- Our union - fortunately, I was at the origins of its creation - was formed on certain freedoms of movement of labor, capital, services, goods. And most importantly, what we agreed on when creating our single economy is that all business entities and our people will have equal conditions. If there are no such equal conditions, then there is no union.
Contrary to the original plan, the leaders of the EAEU countries did not start official work immediately. It was assumed that Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to the protocol, would first greet the heads of delegations, then immediately a photographing ceremony would take place and they would go to negotiations. However, after the meeting with the Russian President, an unscheduled exchange of views of heads of state took place behind closed doors. About her, Alexander Lukashenko briefly said this:
- We started our meeting a little later. We all together, listening for almost half an hour to the information of the President of Russia on the latest events - negotiations within the G20 and so on - stated that the world is going more and more crazy in terms of economy and trade.
The President of Belarus is convinced that such circumstances are a great chance for the EAEU to unite, unite and give even greater momentum to the development of cooperation. He urged colleagues:
- Let's do it. It depends on us sitting here at this table. Belarus is ready for this.
Vladimir Putin opened the meeting on a positive note, saying that draft important decisions had been prepared, the implementation of which, according to experts, would increase the GDP of the EAEU countries by up to $9 billion. The President of Russia stated:
- Cooperation within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union is progressing quite successfully and very dynamically, contributing to a more complete disclosure of the economic potential of our states.
The other members of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council accepted this assessment with understanding, but in their speeches they focused more on what still hinders this full disclosure of potentials. Thus, the President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, strongly promoted the idea that the EAEU should eliminate all obstacles in mutual trade by 2025:
- This is an important condition for the full functioning of our association. The Commission (EEC) and governments need to intensify work in this direction... We need to make additional efforts for the full functioning of the Eurasian Economic Union. It is necessary to complete work on long-discussed documents that are aimed at ensuring the movement of the four freedoms - goods, capital, services, labor.
The assessments of the President of Kyrgyzstan Sooronbay Jeenbekov were also voiced in unison:
- We consider it important to discuss the issue of the state of competition in cross-border markets. It is necessary to analyze the measures taken to curb violations of the general rules of competition, to constantly form a positive image of the union as an effective and competitive international organization ... Our union has a huge potential for the economic development of each country in the Eurasian space, which is not yet fully utilized. In this context, one of the most important tasks of our work is the removal of any barriers and restrictions. I consider it important to implement the four fundamental freedoms in the EAEU space - the freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and labor. We must support each other and remove obstacles.
Alexander Lukashenko drew the attention of the meeting participants to the deterrent factors and unresolved issues. Among the positive achievements, the President named the entry into force of the Treaty on the Customs Code of the EAEU, granting Moldova an observer status. The member states of the union also signed an interim agreement leading to the formation of a free trade zone with Iran, and an agreement on trade and economic cooperation with China.
- Belarus expects that the norms enshrined in these documents will be fully implemented. Each of them was taken with a reserve for the future and with the expectation of a significant economic effect, - noted Alexander Lukashenko.
At the same time, the President of Belarus pointed out important issues that still remain unresolved. They just concern the main topics of the summit agenda: the removal of barriers to trade, the formation of common markets for gas, oil and oil products, the digitalization of the economies of the EAEU countries, the development of cooperation in the provision of space and geoinformation services. Alexander Lukashenko spoke about the position of Minsk on each of these sensitive topics, as always, directly and frankly. He stated, not without satisfaction, that at the beginning of 2018, Russia, as chairman of the EAEU bodies, continued to work to remove barriers. But this issue still needs to be addressed more energetically:
- This is indeed one of the most acute problems of our union, which was identified by the Belarusian side a few years ago. However, this issue is being resolved unacceptably slowly. Moreover, new barriers are being erected to replace the removed barriers. And this has become a practice... As practice has shown, it is important not only to remove obstacles, but also to create conditions in parallel, excluding the possibility of their recurrence. In this regard, I propose that our Eurasian Economic Commission be given the authority to make decisions in the event of the re-imposition of restrictions by any participating state or the extension of existing ones.
Alexander Lukashenko is convinced that such a model will not affect the national interests of the states, but will make it possible to eliminate protectionism, which causes serious damage to integration processes. At the same time, the President offered a global comparison:
- Everyone sitting at this table reacted to world protectionism in trade, calling it roughly - economic wars. So why do we create them? It is also necessary to increase the responsibility of representatives of the executive power of our countries for making decisions that run counter to the principles enshrined in our treaty on the union.
- We are obliged to fulfill everything within the scheduled time frame and ensure the work of the union in the conditions of a stable and fair fuel and raw material policy. There are no interests of suppliers and consumers of energy resources in allied relations. There is an integral system - the Eurasian Economic Union. And under this we conceptually and concretely subscribed.
Alexander Lukashenko supported the initiative of the Russian side on the importance of developing new areas of cooperation. These include nuclear and renewable energy. But at the same time, the President of Belarus made an important emphasis on the fact that the lack of agreement on the principles for the formation of the main oil and gas market does not allow the EAEU to progress at a faster pace. It is the solution of this key issue that will allow countries to start developing other areas.
At the summit, the topic of digitalization of the economy in the EAEU countries was substantively discussed. We are talking about solving the ambitious tasks of transition to modern technologies and production models. The President is convinced
- The effectiveness of integration and the future of the union as a whole will depend on how well we can combine the potential of our states through digital solutions. Belarus is ready for full participation in the implementation of project initiatives of the EAEU digital agenda.
What is meant? First of all, digital trade and cooperation, electronic logistics, the formation of digital transport corridors, the development of precision technologies in agriculture and industry. Belarus has serious achievements in these areas:
We have been digitalizing for a very long time. Based on our experience, I must say that it is now fashionable to talk about digitalization and the development of IT technologies. This is a very important area, it significantly activates production and reduces costs. But this is probably 20 - 25% of today. And it will probably stay that way for a long time. And 70-75% is the traditional economy that feeds us today. Therefore, we should not forget about this either.
The agenda of the summit also included the issue of interstate cooperation in the development of space and geoinformation services. This process should be based on national sources of Earth remote sensing data. Alexander Lukashenko is sure:
- The implementation of this initiative, taking into account its high multiplier effect on the development of related industries and sectors, will give a powerful impetus to our innovation and industrial cooperation.
Assessing the future prospects of the EAEU as a whole, the President of Belarus called on his colleagues to ensure that the Eurasian construction covers all new areas of cooperation.
- In this regard, it is especially important that in a year, and this will be five years from the date of signing the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union, we will be able to see concrete and tangible results of our work. No one should doubt that the EAEU is an effective joint project aimed at increasing the level of economic well-being of all member states.
As can be seen, the desire of the heads of the EAEU states to resolve specific issues on the topic of the day was obvious, unambiguously and frankly indicated. At some point, it seemed that this did not really fit the soul of Vladimir Putin. He persistently suggested leaving some of the most sensitive topics outside the scope of public discussion in the presence of journalists and discussing them behind closed doors. As, for example, the issue of energy prices. It was touched upon by Alexander Lukashenko at the opening of the summit:
- The current pricing procedure for natural gas supplied to Belarus - the tariff applied by Gazprom for the Belarusian side for the transportation of gas from the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug to our border, is almost $ 3 per 1,000 cubic meters per 100 kilometers. While the domestic tariff is about 1 dollar.
The President explained to his colleagues that under such circumstances, gas on the border with the Smolensk region costs Belarus at a price of almost $130 per thousand cubic meters. The established wholesale price for consumers in the Smolensk region is $70. This is almost two times lower. Hence the simple question:
- How to compete in this situation?
The topic is sensitive, and this explains why, after the speech of the Belarusian colleague, Vladimir Putin hastened to take the floor again:
- Thank you very much, dear Alexander Grigorievich. When the press leaves the hall, we will discuss. I can't help but make one remark about gas tariffs. We have developed a movement plan by 2025, when we must agree on common markets for oil, oil products and gas. As for the current situation, it lies in the fact that it is not the tariff that is important, but the final price of gas, which includes this tariff. Here you are right. We must, of course, think about it.
Developing the topic of price, the President of Russia unexpectedly drew parallels with the FRG. According to him, today the price for Belarus per thousand cubic meters of gas is $129. Next year it will be 127. And in Germany - as much as 250 dollars per thousand cubic meters. And even against the backdrop of lower fuel prices in Russia, such a difference, according to Vladimir Putin, is “a big advantage for our allies.” But still, the Russian President did not deny that it is necessary to strive for complete unification:
- This requires time and a different level of integration between our countries. This is a subject of negotiations.
The President of Belarus invited his Russian colleague to pay attention to some important circumstances:
- But our main partner, unfortunately or fortunately, is not Germany, but the Russian Federation. And our main not only partners, but also competitors are Russians.
Alexander Lukashenko recalled that if some goods are produced in Belarus, such as tractors or trucks, then the share of components of the Russian Federation is high in these products:
- Therefore, our main partner is not Germany, but the Russian Federation. And we need equal conditions, first of all, for our fraternal Russia and Belarus. That is the question... You correctly said that we have decided to reach this level by 2025. But the key word is at the moment, so that we move towards this, and not stop.
- So it will be. We agreed on this - to create documents that, in fact, are a plan for our movement towards this goal, a road map - Vladimir Putin assured, noting that Belarus should not have the same price for gas as for Germany.
The President of Belarus pointed out an important aspect: gas still needs to be pumped to Germany. And the distance is quite significant:
That's why they have such a price.
Let's have a discussion behind closed doors. But you are absolutely right that we need to develop a plan for moving towards a single market. We agree with this. We will do so, Vladimir Putin hastened to end the impromptu discussion in the presence of journalists.
As can be seen, the discussions at the EAEU summit were of an applied and substantive nature. Although they were not devoid of some sharpness, but this only emphasizes the importance and complexity of the processes of integration building. However, there is nothing surprising here. If, for example, we compare it with the pace at which the European Union was moving towards rapprochement, then the EAEU will look like a real champion. And here, as the Presidents rightly noted more than once, the main thing is not to stop, but even better - to increase the pace and, without closing our eyes to problems, purposefully and promptly solve them.
The next meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council will be held in May 2019 in Astana. And Armenia will chair the EAEU bodies in 2019.
After the talks, the heads of state went to the Leningrad Center, which is positioned as the first show space in Russia, the center of modern entertainment culture, which offers to get acquainted with art beyond formats and frames. Here their colleagues from the CIS were waiting for them to hold an informal summit of the Commonwealth. The meeting was held in the format of an informal dinner on behalf of the President of Russia. The leaders of the states were invited to sum up the results of cooperation in the current year, discuss the implementation of the agreements reached earlier and the further development of cooperation in the CIS.
ON THE FIELD OF THE SUMMIT
- We agreed that on Monday-Tuesday in the Russian government at the level of Kozak - Lyashenko(Deputy Prime Ministers of Russia and Belarus. - Note. ed.)issues are discussed. First of all, on the tax maneuver. On Thursday - a meeting of the Union Council of Ministers chaired by Dmitry Medvedev. They also consider these issues. And next week we are meeting with the President of Russia and we will dot the i's so that we do not once again enter the new year with unresolved problems. This is what we agreed on, among other things.
- We unexpectedly almost held a meeting of the CSTO. And, in principle, we solved the problem of appointing the general secretary.
Answering a clarifying question, Alexander Lukashenko said that a Belarusian representative would be appointed the CSTO Secretary General:
- As once Nursultan Abishevich(President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev. - Note. ed.) and spoke. But we agreed on a scheme and a system on how this appointment will take place - an individual interview with each leader in the CSTO, and they sign this decision.
RESULTS
- It is very important that there are frank and open statements, and the position of the parties becomes very clear. This helps to find solutions that move the project forward. From this point of view, we had a breakthrough today, because we approved the program for the formation of a common gas market. It was a very fundamental question. We still came to a compromise.
Another important result of the summit was the approval of the program for the formation of a common market for oil and oil products. Negotiations on this issue were also not without heated debate.
– We managed to steer the situation and take a significant step forward. There remains the question of determining the price of gas transit. Everyone has expressed their positions, and we must work on this issue in order to find a compromise solution, Tigran Sargsyan concluded.
Lukashenka got into a tough verbal skirmish with Putin, discussing gas prices for Belarus. But in the end he asked for forgiveness "from the owner."
The highlight of the EAEU summit, which took place on December 6 in St. Petersburg, was a verbal skirmish between Lukashenka and Putin over the price of gas supplied to Belarus. Until now, specific agreements reached at the summit (if at all) have not been announced.
“The most important thing we agreed on when creating our single economy was that all business entities and our people would have equal conditions. If there are no such equal conditions, then there is no union," Lukashenka stressed.
What meaning did the Belarusian leader put into this passage?
Economist comments on the preliminary results of the summit Lev Margolin and political scientist Valery Karbalevich.
Lev Margolin: Russia understands perfectly well that an ally will have to be supported
Let's wait for the assessment of Lukashenka himself, who announces all the results - both positive and negative - literally within a day or two.
In picking the leaders of Belarus and Russia, I would pay attention to the following detail: Lukashenka spoke openly, and Putin transferred the discussion to a closed format - let's talk, but after the departure of journalists. This circumstance vividly illustrates the approaches of Belarus and Russia to the discussion of economic issues.
After all, Belarus itself signed an agreement according to which a single market for gas and oil should take shape before 2025. But the situation in the economy is getting worse, and Russia is well aware that it is necessary to somehow support an ally. But in what way - I think, in the near future we will find out.
- Is Lukashenka's phrase "There are no equal conditions, there is no union" thrown in the hearts or with subtext?
I think the phrase is formulated deliberately, but it can be understood in two ways.
It can be understood in the future tense: if there are no equal conditions, there will be no union, because we do not need such a union. But the second option is also readable: as long as there are no equal conditions, then de facto there is no union - without a threat in the subtext. I think this is Lukashenka's homemade preparation.
- Did Lukashenka manage to bargain something with Russia today?
Specific agreements have not been announced. Success can be different, for example, specific agreements. On the other hand, Poon could tell Lukashenka: no dust, we will resolve all issues - and Lukashenka will perceive this as a concrete outcome of the negotiations.
It must be understood that in today's situation, any outcome of the negotiations will be positive for Lukashenka, during which he will bargain for something additional to what is already there. Lukashenka spoke about tariffs for pumping gas, but said nothing that the gas itself is more expensive for Belarus than in the Smolensk region. Indeed, Putin himself said: $127 per thousand cubic meters of gas is more than in the Smolensk region, but cheaper than in Germany. As in a military foothold: any captured kilometer (or even meter) matters.
Valery Karbalevich: Is Lukashenka launching a preemptive strike to forestall Russia?
It is too early to draw conclusions, because even the agenda of the summit is not completely clear: only a piece of the dispute between Lukashenka and Putin has been made public, moreover, a public dispute, after which the negotiations continued in a closed format.
- Does the public dispute between the two leaders indicate serious problems within the EAEU?
The problem that Lukashenka remembered is an old one, he constantly refers to it. It can be said that this is an eternal dispute within the EAEU. There are a lot of problems in the union, and one of them is that the signed agreements do not work, as Lukashenka said. The union united authoritarian regimes that take the law lightly; if laws and regulations are not respected within each country, how can they do this in international politics? The only question is why Lukashenka raised this problem in the presence of journalists. Putin did not like this, because he believes that such problems are better discussed behind the scenes. Here is the most interesting moment of the entire summit.
- How did you understand Lukashenka's passage “No equal conditions - no union”?
This is a long-standing demand of the Belarusian side, as long as the “Union State” exists, so much Lukashenka puts forward this thesis, not to mention the Eurasian Economic Union. Thus, it puts pressure on Russia, offering to switch to the announced conditions. Lukashenka does not look like a petitioner who seeks some benefits from Russia, but like a lawyer, like a person who defends the law. Like, what kind of union if there are no equal conditions? His position looks noble, and it is difficult to accuse him of asking Russia for benefits. Perhaps Lukashenka has behind-the-scenes information that Russia wants to switch to equal conditions not in 2025, as enshrined in the agreement, but later. Perhaps Lukashenka is launching a preemptive strike to forestall Russia.
"Belarusian partisan"
