Many Belarusians believe that an increase in the price of oil entails an inevitable decline in the exchange rate. However, at the moment, the trend is reversed: on October 3, the price of a barrel of oil reached a record high since 2014 at $86, and National currency The US continues to strengthen while the Russian and Belarusian ruble weakens.
What is happening with oil, the Belarusian ruble and currencies, as well as what all these processes are fraught with in the near future, economist Yaroslav Romanchuk told Sputnik.
According to Romanchuk, the price of oil and exchange rates are completely different things. "The price of oil is illustrated by the function of supply and demand. As soon as there are some problems with the supply (in this situation we are talking about Iran), all traders in the oil market react to this, and until additional oil appears, prices will "Steady high. Moreover, 4/5 of the oil reserves are owned by the state, therefore, of course, there is both an element of politics and an element of speculation. "Oil has never been and will not be a purely market commodity in the near foreseeable future," the expert said.
At the same time, both in Russia and Belarus, the elimination of the coupling between oil prices and the ruble exchange rate is quite obvious. It has to do with monetary policy. Central Bank RF and a number of other factors. “There is a very serious problem with this. Therefore, in the case when we are dealing with a not very tight monetary policy of the Central Bank, when more money and, of course, foreign and domestic Russian capital leave Russia, this naturally affects the exchange rate. Hence we have such an unfavorable situation. And the Belarusian ruble, since it is 50% tied to the Russian ruble, naturally follows," Romanchuk explained.
If the geopolitical situation does not change and additional sanctions against Russia are introduced in early December, the situation may worsen further, as restrictions will be introduced on a number of commodity items that are very sensitive for the Russian economy. "In particular, on oil and energy assets. When there is talk in Russia itself about abandoning the dollar, this raises even more, paradoxically, confidence in it. And people get rid of the ruble, which, of course, is not a means of savings, as shown by decades of history of the Soviet, and then Russian and Belarusian ruble", said the economist.
It makes no sense to talk about what the exchange rate will be by the end of this year, since cycles in the economy do not always coincide with annual marks. "Even if sanctions are introduced in December, the main events can only unfold in the first quarter of 2019. I can imagine a scenario where one dollar will cost 80-100 Russian rubles, as well as a situation where it will remain within the +5- 10% of the current rate, especially if oil, as some analysts suggest, reaches $100 per barrel," Romanchuk said.
The specialist stressed that scenarios for the development of the situation with exchange rates can be completely different, since it is influenced by many speculative non-economic factors. "But what remains unchanged is that neither Russia nor Belarus over these 25 years have neutralized the influence of this powerful energy factor on monetary policy, so we look with bated breath at what the price of oil is. And this, in fact, is a manifestation of being in deep oil dependence or, say, being on this very dangerous oil needle," the economist noted.
According to Romanchuk, the situation will peak in 2019. "Next year, the situation may deteriorate significantly. I think that the key to the exchange rate of the Belarusian and Russian rubles is not in the hands of the Belarusian authorities, but the Russian authorities. I clearly do not expect a scenario of strengthening the Belarusian and Russian rubles with a 99% probability. Everything else can be" , he said.
As for specific figures, an economist can only name them approximately, since the change in the exchange rate depends on many factors, not all of which can be predicted. "If in the Russian Federation, legislation on limiting currency transactions, including individuals, I think then 100 Russian rubles for one dollar will be flowers. Accordingly, we will have 2.5-3 Belarusian rubles per dollar. This is completely obvious. And yet National Bank Belarus is holding on, but, apparently, we will develop in such a state of recession-stagnation," the expert suggested.
The euro will also rise. "European central bank continues the easing policy, accordingly, he is doing everything to make the dollar rise in price. The euro, when introduced, was 1.18 against the dollar, and now it is 1.17. Even if there are some fluctuations up to 1.05, it is not sweeter for Belarusians, since the euro has not become a national currency for us. It must be admitted that the national currency in both Belarus and Russia is the dollar," Romanchuk concluded.
In the last couple of weeks, the dollar and the euro have been growing with varying degrees of success. Yesterday was their course and I got a little anxious about what was going on. Will the dollar be able to return to the levels of the beginning of the year, when its rate fell to 1.95 rubles? Or will the US currency continue to grow and we will see new records? We are talking with Alpari Senior Analyst Vadim Iosub.
Vadim, yesterday the dollar and the euro made us worry, jumping to annual highs. Today, the dollar slowed down growth, and the euro began to decline altogether, can you exhale?
The growth of the dollar will not end soon. It will continue to rise in price, - explains the senior analyst. - It is not necessary that he will grow every day, as he has been doing for the last two and a half weeks. But the direction of growth will remain. This, as we have already said, has nothing to do with what is happening in Belarus, with our economy. There are two external points here: firstly, the growth of the dollar against the vast majority of currencies of countries with emerging markets. Almost no one managed to avoid this.
Second moment. Even if this global trend slows down, the dollar will rise against the Russian ruble. Because of the sanctions stories, which, apparently, will be tightened. Bills of American financial sanctions are being actively discussed, which include prohibitions on the purchase of government debt and a ban on working with Russian state-owned banks.
It is not clear yet what options will fall into the laws, but something will. That is, the sanctions will be tightened, the dollar will grow against the Russian ruble. And the growth of the dollar against the Russian ruble due to our peg to Russian economy will also mean the growth of the dollar against the Belarusian ruble. True, on a smaller scale. That is, there will be some temporary corrections - somewhere in some week the dollar will be able to end with a decline, but the long-term trend is on the rise. I would not wait for the dollar to seriously fall against the Belarusian ruble.
- Are there any forecasts about the maximum exchange rate by the end of the year?
No one can make such predictions. And the problem here is that it is not clear what sanctions will be, it is not clear how the Russian ruble will react to this. And without this, predicting some numbers is an attempt to hit the sky with a finger. None of the predictions are right now.
Tell me, here we have an average exchange rate to the budget for this year at the level of 2.038 Belarusian rubles, but it has already exceeded this mark quite a long time ago. What are the implications for our economy?
Actually, not so strong. Now the rates that are used in budgeting are not exact planned forecasts that need to be achieved, they are just some kind of indicative. Since we have dollar receipts and expenditures in the budget, and the budget is drawn up in rubles, we need some kind of technical forecast in order to convert these currency flows into Belarusian rubles.
On the one hand, the growth of the dollar will mean that dollar imports will rise in price for us - namely dollar imports, not all of them. It will be harder to service dollar loans to enterprises, and to the budget - dollar external debt. At the same time, purely theoretically, in the dollar markets, our products become cheaper, and therefore more competitive in price.
How will the growth of the dollar affect prices and will it affect the government's plans to curb inflation at 6%?
If we talk about the impact on inflation, it is worth recalling the efforts of the National Bank to de-dollarize. It was done just for such cases. You can remember the times 10-15 years ago, then, in fact, all our prices were in dollars (I'm not talking about apartment cars), stupidly everything on the market - from clothes to groceries - was tied to the dollar. And the growth of the dollar meant an automatic rise in prices by the same amount.
Now we have succeeded in largely decoupling prices from the exchange rate, and therefore the growth of the dollar will not automatically lead to a proportional increase in inflation. In theory, an increase in dollar prices will lead to an increase in those goods that the country buys for dollars. But at the same time, most likely, not all at once and immediately, but with a delay (taking into account logistics, the fact that new batches of goods will be bought, and so on). Relatively speaking, this will happen in a quarter.
The growth of the dollar will not affect those goods that we buy for the Russian ruble. What is produced in Belarus, the growth of the dollar will affect indirectly and partially. There are some costs that are associated with the dollar exchange rate (electricity, fuels and lubricants, etc.), and there are also those that do not react to the growth of the dollar (wages, taxes, and so on). Therefore, there will be some pressure on prices, but you need to understand that the growth of the dollar by 5% or 10% will not mean at all that all prices or prices will increase by the same amount on average.
Understandably, people are afraid. Everyone remembers the rise in prices in 2011 and 2014. Polls National Bank, devaluation expectations of the population are quite strong ...
But even in the same 2011, prices did not rise in direct proportion to the growth of the dollar. The exchange rate for this year has almost tripled, and prices have risen approximately twice. Inflation there did not equal devaluation. Actually, this was the case in late 2014 - early 2015.
- What course is the most adequate for our economy? Is there such a concept in principle?
There is no such concept. There are different actors in the market, and they have different interests. Importers, those who pay debts in dollars, want the dollar to be cheaper, exporters, those who receive salaries pegged to the dollar or issue debts in dollars, want it to be more expensive. In fact, a very important fundamental point - you need to understand that there are no correct, adequate and mathematically verified courses.
Moreover, these serious currency crises of our past years were completely caused by the fact that the authorities tried, firstly, to calculate this adequate rate, and secondly, they tried to adhere to this course. It always ended in currency crises. The meaning of the normal functioning of the market is a few banal things. First, the value of a currency - it's like the cost of potatoes, sausages, anything - depends on supply and demand. Secondly, both demand and supply are constantly changing, and the exchange rate follows them. Accordingly, the rate is determined by the balance of this supply and demand.
If one course is declared adequate and correct, then we will face a shortage of currency in the market, as has happened more than once. That is, it seems that we have announced an adequate rate, but it is impossible to buy currency at this adequate rate. So this situation means that the course is just the same inadequate.
- Could our economy not be subject to this global process, and in what case?
No highly developed country is immune from exchange rate volatility. Take even the two coolest regions - the US and the Eurozone: the dollar and the euro in these territories is not stable. They either rise or fall. During the period since the introduction of the euro, it cost at a minimum 82 US cents, and at a maximum - 1 dollar 60 US cents. That is, even the two strongest currencies in the world, which correspond to the two most strong economies, can fluctuate to each other twice in a short historical period. This is the clearest illustration of the fact that neither the dollar nor the euro is immune from falling.
Theoretically, there are such "stable" currencies, where the rate is fixed. We had this before as well. All over the world, currencies fell and rose, but here there was an island of stability. It all ended with a triple devaluation. That is, you can try to build a stable currency - isolate yourself from the whole world, do not import and export, do not let foreign investors in, do not invest in other countries yourself, rely on your own strength. Such is the Juche to implement. For some time, probably, the exchange rate will be stable. But, for example, the same North Korea, relying on its own forces, has ensured that mainly the Chinese yuan circulates across the country. Nobody wants their own stable North Korean won.
Venezuela tried to rely on its own forces, where the real exchange rate differs from the official one by 30 times. In our country, even in the worst times, the difference between the official and unofficial rates was two times. Iran tried to live in isolation from the whole world, with huge resources and oil reserves, but even there it all ended in a severe devaluation. That is, in reality, it is impossible to be completely independent of the world, as well as to have a fixed exchange rate.
In normal countries, the course will float - this is natural and there is no getting away from it. The course depends on the economy, and this is a living organism. It either rises or falls, imports and exports either rise or fall, inflation changes, and the exchange rate changes depending on this.
In September of this year, foreign exchange market In Belarus, a significant event occurred: the volume of net sales of foreign currency by the population collapsed to almost zero, which led to fatal consequences for the ruble exchange rate.
It seemed that the times when any hint of devaluation of the Belarusian ruble led to the emergence of a rush demand for the currency on the part of individuals had long since passed. However, the results of operations with foreign currencies on the domestic market of Belarus in September of this year show that such a stereotype of behavior may return.
If you study the dynamics of demand and supply of foreign currency by individuals, then at first glance, you might think that this is not so. Really, cash currency Residents of our country bought in September 9.7 million dollars less than in August, and more non-cash, but only 4.9 million dollars. Thus, in total, the volume of purchases of foreign currency in September even decreased by $4.8 million and amounted to $705.7 million. This is a high value, but not a record at all, for example, in December 2017 individuals purchased currencies for 719.6 million dollars.
However, a completely different picture emerges if we compare the demand for the currency in September this year with September last year. Here the contrast is striking: last month, individuals purchased cash currency by $107.1 million more, and non-cash currency by $70.5 million more than in September a year ago. This, of course, is not yet a rush demand, but a step towards it. As for the low change in the volume of foreign currency purchases in September of this year compared to August, the situation was distorted by the seasonal decline in demand for foreign currency in September due to the end of the holiday season.
A serious change has also occurred with the sale of foreign currency by the population. AT last years a new stereotype of behavior emerged among the inhabitants of our country: after a sharp fall in the exchange rate of the ruble, people rushed not to buy, but to sell dollars in order to purchase imported goods before they rise in price, or the ruble exchange rate recovers. This is exactly what the people of Belarus did in May 2018, and this is exactly what they did in August of the same year. But in September the situation changed again and people returned to the old standard of behavior: they began to hold on to the currency.
Namely, in September of this year, individuals sold cash to banks by $120.5 million less than in August, and non-cash currency - by $29.9 million less. That is, the total supply of currency from the population decreased by 150.4 million dollars and amounted to 712.5 million dollars. This is the minimum value for this parameter since February of the current year.
What caused such a radical change in the mood of the inhabitants of Belarus is still not known exactly. Either all the prudent inhabitants of our country have already made the purchases they need imported goods, or whether they decided that if they wait a little, then the purchases can be made even more profitable, it is not known. Perhaps there has been a change in the assessment of the severity of the crisis that has hit Russia, and with it our country. People began to understand that this was not a short-term collapse, as before, but the beginning of a long-term trend (see).
It is possible that the change of government in the Republic of Belarus also influenced the mood of the population. Moreover, it announced its intention to increase salaries in public sector, and people still remember how the previous periods of wage growth ended - devaluation.
Whatever explains the change in the stereotypes of the behavior of the inhabitants of Belarus in the foreign exchange market, they turned out to be fatal for the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble. The supply of foreign currency from the population in September still exceeded the demand for it, but only by $6.8 million. And this despite the fact that in August individuals sold currencies in net terms for 152.4 million dollars, and in general for January-September - for 1.082 billion dollars. Thus, in September, the foreign exchange market lost its traditional inflow of foreign currency from individuals, therefore, in the conditions of an excess of demand for foreign currency over supply from business entities - residents of the Republic of Belarus, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against a basket of currencies from the dollar, euro and Russian ruble collapsed.
Thus, we conclude that although the volume of foreign currency purchases by individuals in September turned out to be at a fairly moderate level by historical standards, it was the purchases of foreign currency by individuals that led to the observed collapse of the Belarusian ruble.
Of course, there are many reasons for this phenomenon. In particular, Belarusian enterprises also had a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate, the balance of purchases/sales of which in September 2018 amounted to 184.4 million dollars in favor of the purchase. But their influence in this case was not decisive, since in September 2017 this parameter was equal to 187.8 million dollars, and such a collapse of the ruble as in 2018 was not observed. The excess of demand for currency over its supply on the part of enterprises in September is a common occurrence.
As for business entities - non-residents of the Republic of Belarus, in September of this year they sold currencies in net terms for $32.9 million, which significantly exceeded the figure for September 2017, equal to $9.9 million. But this is not enough to meet the demand for currency from residents.
Thus, the change in the behavior of Belarusian residents in the foreign exchange market in September turned out to be the decisive factor that determined the dynamics of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate against a basket of currencies from the dollar, euro and Russian ruble.
The question is how long the current sentiment will last. Unfortunately, we do not conduct operational sociological surveys of the population that can clarify the situation. But it is hardly worth expecting a change of mood for a long time. Indeed, the main factor determining the supply of currency by individuals is its sale in order to obtain funds for everyday life, that is, people will not be able to refrain from selling the currency for a long time. As for the purchase of currency by the population, the emergence of a rush demand seems unlikely - something extraordinary must happen for this to happen.
It can be expected that as the dollar rate rises, there will be fewer and fewer importers willing to buy it, which will balance the supply and demand of foreign currency in the domestic market of the country and lead to the stabilization of the ruble against the basket. However, this process is unlikely to proceed smoothly, and there is a significant risk of increased ruble exchange rate instability. The value of the currency basket can rise to its equilibrium value (with zero net currency sales by the population) and higher, this will lead to an increase in the volume of currency sales by the population, and this will cause a decrease in the value of the basket. And a new cycle of course changes will begin.
That is, chaos can begin: quite significant fluctuations in the value of the basket (up to 10-20%) will occur within several months, and without any objective economic grounds for this in the form of changes in currency flows from foreign trade and the movement of capital abroad.
Thus, the continuation of the growth of the dollar and the euro in the current year is quite likely. But after individuals return to their previous pattern of behavior and resume net sale currencies, and this will certainly happen over time, the value of the basket of currencies and the dollar will collapse again. Perhaps this will happen at the beginning of next year, as during the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble. But, of course, much depends on how Belarusian enterprises behave in such conditions. They can take the side of the population and exacerbate the collapse of the ruble, or they can increase the supply of currency, which will stop the weakening of the ruble.
In any case, the situation for the Belarusian ruble is now unfavorable: its exchange rate is determined not so much by objective factors as subjective assessments situation on the part of the population and enterprises of the Republic of Belarus.
The dollar exchange rate in Belarus has overcome the mark of 2.1 rubles and has reached more than .Naviny . by learned from experts about the reasons for the growth and the immediate prospects of the national currency.
The dollar exchange rate has been growing in Belarus for a week. If, according to the results of trading on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange on August 28, the dollar rate amounted to 2.0586 rubles, then on September 4 it already rose to 2.1028 rubles. During the week, the dollar rose by 2.15%, during the day - by 0.68%.
As a result of trading on September 4, the exchange rates of the euro and the Russian ruble also rose - by 0.49% (up to 2.4336 rubles) and 0.09% (up to 3.0823 rubles per 100 Russian rubles).
In setting the exchange rate, the National Bank of Belarus uses the mechanism of pegging to a basket of currencies, in which specific gravity the Russian ruble is 50%, the dollar and the euro - 30 and 20%.
Why are foreign exchange rates rising?
Ongoing events financial consultant of TeletradeBel Zhanna Kulakova calls predictable dynamics, which is related to the fact that Belarusian market began to play more actively what is happening on the Russian foreign exchange market.
“Because of sanctions, because of geopolitical risks Russian currency significantly weakened this year. The first round of the fall was in April, and the second fell on August. Since the beginning of the year, the Russian ruble has lost about 15% against the basket of the Central Bank. And nothing really happened in our market. Our ruble has demonstrated miracles of resilience.”- said the financial consultant.
According to her, the dollar and the euro rose in price moderately, but at the same time the exchange rate of the Russian ruble was declining. That is, in fact, there was a smoothing of the negative processes in the Russian foreign exchange market due to the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble against the Russian ruble.
The exchange rate of the Russian ruble even fell below the mark of 3 rubles per 100 Russian rubles. This state of affairs worried Belarusian exporters who supply goods to Russia.
“Belarus depends on Russia, including in terms of trade. As before, Russia accounts for about half of the foreign trade turnover of goods. Accordingly, it was simply impossible to ignore what was happening in Russia. Now the exchange rate of the Russian ruble is growing and returning to more comfortable levels for export. Accordingly, the dollar and euro exchange rates are already formed on the basis of cross rates.- said Zhanna Kulakova.
Senior Analyst at Alpari Forex Broker Vadim Iosub does not rule out some intervention in the situation of the National Bank.
"Our industrialists and Agriculture, who complained about the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble, first of all, against the Russian ruble, to a certain extent, perhaps, got through to the National Bank. And, perhaps, the National Bank decided to make efforts to correct the situation, although there can only be assumptions on this score, because the National Bank does not provide complete, detailed statistics on its operations in the foreign exchange market., - said Vadim Iosub.
What will be the exchange rate in the future?
It is extremely difficult to judge the future, the senior analyst at Alpari stated.
Specific exchange rates will depend to the maximum extent on the dynamics of the Russian ruble against the dollar. And it will depend on the accepted ones.
Several different bills are currently awaiting discussion in the US Congress. There is a very wide range of measures. There is also a ban on the purchase of Russian debt, and on operations with Russian state-owned banks.
“Depending on how these bills translate into real laws, how they are implemented by the Trump administration, the reaction of the Russian ruble can vary greatly. In a situation of such uncertainty, it is extremely difficult to predict.”- said Vadim Iosub.
Zhanna Kulakova, in her turn, has no doubts that the rate of the Russian ruble will grow in Belarus in the future. Earlier, the authorities voiced the forecast at an average annual rate of 3.4 rubles per 100 Russian rubles.
“One way or another, it is now lower, so the very fact of the growth of the Russian ruble in the foreseeable future is beyond doubt. And the further dynamics of the dollar and the euro will already depend on whether the Russian ruble stabilizes in Russia or geopolitical risks continue to put pressure on it.”, - said the financial consultant of TeletradeBel.
According to her forecasts, by the end of the year the dollar exchange rate in Belarus will be at the level of 2.2 rubles, and the euro - 2.5 rubles.
Should I run to the exchange office?
In a period of increased volatility in the foreign exchange market, Zhanna Kulakova does not consider it a wise decision to go to exchangers and jump from one currency to another.
“There is such a universal advice at all times - to keep eggs in different baskets, and money in different currencies. And this should always be done. Regardless of whether the Belarusian ruble is strengthening or falling. This approach will allow you not to worry about savings, because the depreciation of one currency will be offset by the growth of another. If we want to multiply, get rich on currency fluctuations, then we need to monitor quotes every day, but we must remember that in this case, potential income is associated with a potentially high risk of losses., - emphasized the financial consultant of TeletradeBel.
In turn, Vadim Iosub sees no reason to sell dollars, but he also does not consider it particularly expedient to buy them for Belarusian rubles.
“There is an alternative. There are deposits in Belarusian rubles, which so far give a yield that exceeds the yield on foreign currency deposits, even taking into account the growth of the dollar against the Belarusian ruble. But if you have savings in Russian rubles, then I would recommend getting rid of them.”, - noted the senior analyst of Alpari.
To hand over to euro and dollar. So, today at the auction the dollar rose to 2.1605 rubles, and the euro - up to 2.4977 rubles. Experts advise how Belarusians should behave in such a situation on the foreign exchange market - wait, go to an exchanger, buy goods or take some other action.
It will be possible to predict the exchange rate of major currencies against the Belarusian ruble only in three months, the economist believes Lev Margolin. If the second package of anti-Russian sanctions comes into force, this will cause a serious deterioration in the situation on the foreign exchange market. However, you can prepare for monetary instability now.
- The fall of the Belarusian ruble will continue, as Russia is our main external trading partner. If our currency strengthens, then Belarusian exports for Russians will become more and more expensive. Usually they respond to this by reducing demand, which is like death for the country.
The expert believes that when forming the exchange rate, the National Bank tries to take into account the interests of Belarusian exporters, the so-called industrial lobby.
“Despite the fact that our aksakals left the government, I think that there is still someone to lobby their interests. But another thing is that the National Bank can again spin up inflation, which has already more or less reduced to acceptable levels.
According to the analyst, because of this, imported goods will “certainly rise in price” with a time lag of 3-4 months. The price of all other goods will also change.
— The fact is that in our economy the import component can be found in almost every product, even in bakery products. In addition, fuel is becoming more expensive, and the transport component is, without exception, all industrial and consumer goods. Therefore, difficult times await us.
The analyst advises buying foreign currency whenever possible.
— I think that Belarusians are always ready for anything, because what is happening today has happened more than once. When the question is where to keep the money - in a jar or in a bank, I would advise the first option. If hard times come, I do not exclude that there may be restrictions on the use currency accounts. Therefore, everything is very clear: keep it at home and do not show it to anyone.
According to a senior analyst at Alpari Vadim Iosuba, this week the increase in the exchange rate of major currencies will be replaced by a decrease. This is due to the fact that the seasonal demand for foreign currency will end.
“I expect rates lower by the end of the week than they were at the end of last week,” predicts Vadim Iosub. - I see the dollar exchange rate - 2.12 rubles, the euro - 2.46, and the Russian ruble - 3.07.
The analyst says that it is not worth running to the exchangers now either for currency or to turn it in.
“We need to stop running back and forth. You can run to buy, then run to sell and, due to all this, have guaranteed losses. On each of the operations you will lose margin between buying and selling. The most reasonable behavior today is to keep half of the money in Belarusian rubles on deposit at the highest possible rate (today it is 12.5%. - Ed.). The other half is to be kept in dollars. But by no means in Russian rubles. And, in my opinion, dollars in the foreseeable future will be preferable to the euro.
Vadim Iosub believes that the fall of the Belarusian ruble against the currency basket will affect the cost of imported goods. But this will not happen instantly, because the logistics of supply takes a certain time.
“Changes in prices on store shelves can be expected with a delay of at least a month,” the expert says. - It is worth paying attention to the fact that the Russian ruble, despite the growth, is still lower than it was at the beginning of the year. The dollar is rising. Those goods that we import for dollars, they have risen in price and will continue to rise in price. But Russian ones will be cheaper than at the beginning of the year.
Financial consultant of Teletradebel LLC Zhanna Kulakova also believes that running around exchangers during periods of increased volatility is a bad idea.
- I advise you to keep money in different currencies, even when nothing foreshadows the growth of the dollar. Then the head will not hurt with currency fluctuations, - the financial consultant is sure.
Regarding exchange rates in the near future, Zhanna Kulakova says that this is an equation with many unknowns.
- Here you need to take into account the situation with Russia, but there it is impossible to predict something. It is necessary to take into account the euro-dollar rate, our internal problems and the risks that we also have,” the expert lists. - I think that the dollar exchange rate of 2.20 in our foreseeable future is a very real prospect. Optimism on Russian market not viewed. And until a decision is made on the most vexing potential sanctions that could affect Russian public debt, systemically important banks and strategically important companies, the Russian ruble may remain under pressure. And it certainly affects our market too.
Zhanna Kulakova is inclined to believe that foreign exchange rates will still grow
— Considering that the exchange rate of the Russian ruble in our market is rather low — 3.09 today, I see the potential for its further growth. I assume that all three will rise in price foreign currencies, respectively, our ruble will fall to the basket. Until the end of this week, the dollar may rise in price to 2.20 rubles, the euro - 2.50-2.55, the Russian ruble - we will adhere to the range indicated by the Minister of Economy - 3.1-3.2, Zhanna Kulakova predicts.
According to the financial consultant, the change in exchange rates has already affected the prices of imported goods.
— Our ruble has strengthened against the Russian one for a long time. And the further the exchange rate of the ruble falls in our market, the more often people have the question of what to buy in Russia. This affects both exports, and imports, and the balance of foreign trade,” the expert explains. - The growth of the dollar and the euro will affect imports. Import prices are rising quite quickly. What we import for dollars and euros may rise in price for us, but what Russian rubles, to get cheaper.
