The Russian ruble is declining against all currencies, including against the Belarusian ruble, Vadim Iosub, senior analyst at Alpari, notes.
According to him, the main reason for the fall of the Russian currency is US sanctions. The expert recalls that in April the United States imposed sanctions against 24 major Russian businessmen and officials. Since yesterday, sanctions have been in place due to the poisoning of the Skripals.
These purely Russian affairs were superimposed on the currency crisis in almost all developing countries ah: there was a serious fall in the Turkish lira and the Brazilian real, backfired in Mexico, in South Africa, - states the economist.
The expert emphasizes that almost all currencies of the CIS states are declining against the dollar. However, the Belarusian ruble looks even better currencies other developing countries where there are foreign investors.
But not because we have such a strong ruble or a strong economy. It's just that there are practically no foreign investors in the market of public debt denominated in Belarusian rubles. They didn’t come here, so they don’t leave here, - the analyst notes.
Apparently, the current US sanctions against Russia are not the last ones. On August 21, Congress held hearings on new anti-Russian sanctions related to Crimea, Donbass, and election interference in the United States.
In the future, everything is not very simple. For Belarusian economy the consequences of the tax maneuver can be very painful. The issue of duty-free deliveries of oil products to Belarus has become aggravated, - says the economist.
Also, according to him, it is not yet clear whether the official Minsk will receive a Russian state loan of $1 billion.
According to the expert, if the government of Belarus resolves oil issues with the Russian Federation and agrees on a loan, then the weakening Russian ruble will fall against the Belarusian one.
If we do not solve our problems, the Belarusian and Russian rubles will fall simultaneously. And the dollar will grow stronger against the Belarusian ruble, Vadim Iosub predicts.
He believes that for the time being it is not worth making changes in the currency basket of Belarus, where today 50% is the Russian ruble, 30% - the dollar and 20% - the euro.
While almost 50% of Belarusian exports go to Russia, it is quite reasonable that the Russian ruble also occupies half of the basket. If the geographic and monetary structure of our exports seriously changes, then only then will there be a reason to talk about a change in the currency basket, - believes a senior analyst at Alpari.
The economist recalls that the leadership of Belarus talks a lot about the need to diversify the geography of exports, but in reality nothing changes: Russia remains the main sales market.
This addiction is harmful and painful. hit on Russian economy automatically means a decrease in demand for Belarusian products, Vadim Iosub emphasizes.
Citizens of Belarus are getting used to new banknotes and are getting used to being "millionaires"
Photo: Viktor Drachev/TASS
On July 1, 2016, the denomination started in Belarus. The corresponding decree was signed by the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko on November 5, 2015. About how the Belarusian ruble began a new life without four zeros - in a special report from Banki.ru from Minsk.
The denomination in Belarus is going quite calmly. Apparently, the preparation process, which officially began in the fall of 2015, makes itself felt. Then the journalists were shown the new money, they were even allowed to touch and photograph. And the banks were given recommendations on the denomination.
Literally a few weeks after the announcement of the denomination, there were reports in the media that some "enterprising citizens" went to the pensioners living alone to change old money for "new", but law enforcement agencies quickly explained to the population how to behave in this situation.
Perhaps the criminal aspect was the only negative point in the process of "cutting off zeros" with national currency in Belarus. On the night of June 30 to July 1, the Belarusian ruble lost four zeros and changed its encoding. Now its code is BYN, not BYR.
In preparation for the denomination, June was the busiest period: banks were finalizing software, reconfiguring equipment and training cashiers.
Also National Bank and Belarusian banks clarified that on the night of the denomination:
Cash in ATMs quickly came to an end, but in general, banks coped with the issuance quite successfully a large number cash. True, it was not without curiosities - some withdrew all their savings from the cards. Yes, just in case.
On the night of the denomination, at 23:00 on June 30, banking life in Belarus stopped. ATMs, information kiosks, remote control systems stopped working. banking service. At this point, hundreds of specialists in Belarusian banks reset the electronics.
By 10 am on July 1, most ATMs of Belarusian banks were already fully operational. And they issued new paper money to customers. With coins, everything is much more complicated so far, ATMs are simply not configured to work with them. In Belarus, a whole generation has already grown up that does not know what coins are, the last metal money disappeared from circulation with the collapse of the USSR. By the way, new Belarusian banknotes, and the new Belarusian coins are very similar in design to the euro.
Certain issues have also arisen with remote banking systems. Some banks have taken time out to reconfigure.
Officially, the National Bank of Belarus allowed credit organizations not work with clients on the day of the denomination. However, already in the first hours of July 1, round-the-clock exchange offices (in particular, at railway stations) began to issue new money. Now cash-in-transit machines deliver new banknotes and coins to trade and service organizations throughout the country.
The excitement is observed only on the part of young people and journalists who are hunting for new banknotes. As cashiers in regular and online stores admit, so far almost everyone is paying with old money. There were no unforeseen incidents. It can be stated that the preparation for the denomination took place at a fairly high level and Belarus is slowly moving to new means of payment.
By the way, new banknotes- a sample from 2009 (all these years they were kept in the depository National Bank Belarus). These banknotes bear the signature of Piotr Prokopovich, who left the post of head of the Belarusian regulator more than five years ago, in the spring of 2011. The psychological aspect of the denomination is also important - the inhabitants of Belarus are accustomed to the fact that they are "millionaires". average salary in the country was 6-7 million rubles (about 20 thousand Russian rubles). Now with the status of "millionaires" will have to part. 1 million old rubles is 100 new ones. For 1 dollar they ask for 2 new Belarusian rubles, for 1 Russian ruble they give 3 new kopecks. But so far no one has complained about it.
Until the end of the year, price tags in Belarusian stores will be in both old and new money.
And the denomination will continue. Old rubles will officially circulate on a par with new ones until December 31, 2016.
Here are the first scams with new Belarusian rubles. Grandmother was given change in one of the shops in Minsk. I will not name the store, because, apparently, the saleswoman herself fell victim to swindlers. Be careful! - Minsker Pavel wrote in a social network.
The photo shows: coins of 1 Russian ruble and 1 Belarusian ruble, of course, differ. But the color, the inscription - everything is very similar. And you just need to know very well what Belarusian coins look like so as not to be deceived. And they began to fall into our hands only from July 1!
And it would not be a problem - unless there was a difference in the amount. The fact is that a Russian coin of one ruble is cheaper than a similar Belarusian coin ... more than 30 times!
And just yesterday at the checkout in the store I saw a man paying with coins, but the cashier noticed in time: this is not our money. The buyer took a closer look, apologized, - says a colleague.
We will not claim that all these deceptions are intentional, not the amounts on which you can get a significant profit by replacing the coins. But we decided to compare Belarusian coins and banknotes with money from neighboring countries. Where else can you accidentally deceive yourself? And what should you pay attention to when paying with new Belarusian rubles, so as not to get change with a cheap Russian coin or accidentally give two euros from your wallet.
1 ruble coins
The diameter of the Russian coin is slightly smaller than the Belarusian one. Ours is even thicker. What is the difference? Firstly, on the reverse: different coats of arms, as well as on the Belarusian coin in large letters "BELARUS".
In addition, the denominations on all Belarusian money - both coins and banknotes - are written in Belarusian. We have "1 rubel", in Russia - "1 ruble".
Coins of 10 kopecks
The Russian coin is again smaller than the Belarusian one. And here, in the same way, you need to read the inscription, and also look for the inscription “BELARUS” on the reverse.
Coins of 50 kopecks
The Russian coin is much smaller in diameter than the Belarusian one. And easier. It's just that the thickness is about the same. But, again, outwardly there are many similarities: both the color and the inscription. It is the same here: we pay attention to the language in which the inscriptions are made and look for the name of the country.
2 rubles
Outwardly, our two rubles as a coin very much resemble two euros. But here we must remember: in Belarusian coins, the edging is golden, and the middle is silver. In the European coin, the opposite is true. Well, the inscriptions of the euro are made in English. It is hardly possible to be deceived here.
20 rubles and 50 euros
At least the color of the notes are very similar. But, still, you need to pay attention to the language of the inscriptions. Here is another piece of advice: do not carry Belarusian money and currency in the same wallet.
Indeed, as a rule, the currencies of rich countries are more expensive than those of poor ones. But this is a prime example of how correlation doesn't always equal causation. This trend is related to the fact that the developed countries have a more stable monetary policy, there is lower inflation, fewer episodes of devaluation (examples of how a currency loses value are the Zimbabwean dollar and the Venezuelan bolivar). However, there are precedents when developed countries maintain low nominal exchange rates, usually left over from less stable times: say, Japan and South Korea have fairly cheap currencies (1 ruble as of 04/01/2017 is approximately 2 yen or 20 won). The exchange rate of the Italian lira at the time of its withdrawal from circulation was almost 2000 per euro. At the same time, any country can denominate at any time and make its currency at least ten times more expensive than the euro and the US dollar - as you might guess, this will not affect the living standards of citizens in any way. For example, Belarus recently carried out another denomination, making its ruble 30 times more expensive than the Russian one.
All currencies of the post-Soviet space are descended from the Soviet ruble, but this is a very distant relationship. During the collapse of the USSR, the republics began to issue various temporary currencies (coupons, coupons, etc.), which took over the early post-Soviet inflation and were replaced a few years later by "real" national money with a passing denomination. It was held in each country at its own time and in its own proportions (say, in Lithuania 1:100, in Latvia 1:200, in Ukraine 1:100,000, in Georgia 1:1,000,000, in Russia in 1997 there was a denomination 1:1000). This in itself created a fair amount of randomness in the exchange rates of the former Soviet republics. Since then, a lot of water has flowed. Different countries pursued different monetary policies. Somewhere, like in Belarus, they turned on at full capacity printing press and dispersed inflation, somewhere they tied their currency to the dollar, which ensured the stability of the exchange rate. In addition, the three Baltic countries have generally switched to the euro (which requires the fulfillment of very strict criteria for the stability of the state's financial position), so it is not clear which "Baltic currencies" are referred to in the question.
The Russian ruble, generally speaking, is a problematic currency, as we had the opportunity to verify in December 2014. We have quite high inflation; the natural wealth of Russia mentioned in the question leads to the fact that the exchange rate of the ruble is entirely dependent on fluctuations in oil prices. Given these facts and the complex history of post-Soviet currencies, it is not surprising that some of the neighbors' currencies are more expensive than the Russian one. As already noted, these facts have nothing to do with the real level of the purchasing power of the population.
Due to what the Belarusian ruble wins back its positions? AiF asked to answer this question candidate economic sciences Elena SEMAK.
Semak Elena Adolfovna - Associate Professor of the Department of International economic relations faculty international relations Belarusian State University.On the exchange rate(i.e., the ratio of the price of the national currency to a foreign one, for example, the Belarusian ruble to the dollar) is influenced by supply and demand for foreign currency. Dollars and euros are needed by enterprises that buy goods for import, as well as by the population - for tourist trips abroad or for the purpose of savings. At the beginning of 2017, the volumes of foreign currency purchased by these two categories decreased.
According to the National Bank, in January of this year, business entities - residents of the Republic of Belarus, bought more currencies than they sold, the difference amounted to 13.1 million USD. This is much less than in January last year, when this excess amounted to 198.2 million USD.
At the same time, our exporters increased their revenue. Compared to January 2016, sales volume foreign exchange by Belarusian enterprises in the first month of 2017 increased by 262.7 million USD. According to the expert, this indicates a possible improvement in the state of Belarusian foreign trade.
Thus, the first factor that influenced the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble was an increase in supply and a decrease in demand for foreign currencies on the part of business. It is also necessary to add: Belarusian enterprises prefer to buy foreign currency from banks (on the over-the-counter market). On the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange (BCSE), they purchased only 14.3 million USD, while outside the exchange - 1,278.1 million USD. Namely, exchange rates are set on the stock exchange.
The second factor, according to the expert, was the high level of spending by the population during the holidays (dollars were exchanged for rubles, for which goods for the feast were then bought), the third factor was low level income, which forces the population to spend foreign currency savings.
Another aspect is political: a sharp weakening of the European currency on the BCSE was caused, to a large extent, by the depreciation of the euro against the US dollar in the Forex market. This is due to fears that Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Front, could take the presidency of France, which, if she wins, could withdraw the country from the euro zone and initiate the return of the franc as the national currency of France.
According to Elena Semak, one should not forget that the Russian ruble is strengthening at the same time.
The exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble is determined by the amount (basket) of 3 currencies: euro, dollar, Russian ruble. And the share of the latter in the basket is 50%. Most of our foreign trade is connected with Russia, and in relation to the Russian ruble, the Belarusian ruble is weakening.
Forecasting further changes in the exchange rate is a very difficult task. At the end of 2016, the majority of economists expected, at best, a gradual depreciation of the Belarusian ruble at the same pace as inflation. The further forecast of the development of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate depends on the success of our foreign trade, the growth or decline in household incomes and fluctuations in foreign exchange rates on world markets.
The following main factors influenced the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble:
