Public debt is usually classified according to a variety of criteria. For example, according to the currency criterion state debt RF is divided into external and internal. It is generally accepted that if the debt is calculated in the ruble equivalent, then it should be attributed to domestic debt, credit obligations calculated in a different currency form an external debt. In a number of other countries of the world, external public debt is considered to be obligations to non-residents of the state, and internal - to legal and individuals belonging to the same country (residents of the state).
Credit obligations of Russia are presented in the form:
Russia's credit obligations are long-term (5-30 years), medium-term (1-5 years) and short-term (no more than a year). In accordance with international law, all debentures Russian Federation, as well as other countries, must be repaid within a strictly specified time frame. The duration of the debt payment period cannot be more than 30 years. It is against the law to adjust the terms of a government loan received in the past. This rule applies to the terms of debt repayment, interest rates on international loans and the maximum maturity of debt obligations.
Public debt is considered an integral part of international financial relations. However, the state debt of the Russian Federation is among the serious economic problems. The total amount of the country's debt obligations suggests that this issue requires a professional approach and immediate solution, both of the key problem (growth of public debt) and side ones, directly related to the growth of debt obligations. When solving problems related to public debt, it is customary to single out the following aspects:
Constant growth of public debt in the face of a slowdown economic growth has a negative impact on all spheres of state and public life.
Zhilyakova A.I. The structure of the external debt of the Russian Federation: the ratio of public and corporate debt, its dynamics // Economics and business: theory and practice. - 2016. - No. 4. – S. 89-94.
STRUCTURE OF THE EXTERNAL DEBT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: RELATED SECTION OF STATE AND CORPORATE DEBT, ITS DYNAMICS
A.I. Zhilyakova, student
Financial Universityunder the Government of the Russian Federation a tion
(Russia, Moscow)
Annotation . The article is devoted to the study structures external debt of Russia th Federation and identification directions of the dynamics of its two main parts: public debt R the public sector, as well as the debt of banks and corporations. The article consists of two parts: the first contains the current structure of the external debt of the Russian Federation in terms of I niyu on January 1, 2016, in the second analyzes the dynamics changes in external debt since 2006 Oh yeah . Article may be useful to economists, interestedforged in studycontemporary external debt of the Russian Federation ii and her speakers, as well as t carrying external public debt and corporate debt.
Key words: external debt, dynamics of external debt,external corporate and the duty of the Russian Federation, external public debt,quasi-sovereign debt .
External debt is an important part in operating economy of any country. History and many economically developed and developing countries h winding countries we resorted to external borrowings as a source of about additional financial resources.For the analysis of I it is relevant to consider the country’s external debt as a dynamic a dynamics of the total external debt of the country, and its structural parts. Yes, incontext of the economy of the Russian Federation a tion, actual the problem is uneven th distribution of state and corporate a active debt in the structure of owls about purchased external debt. About statistics recent years shows a significant e increase in the level of external corporate debt over public debt about stu.
Thus, the purpose of this work is into parse the current struct at ru of the external debt of the Russian Federation with the allocation of the main areas leniya and te n the trend of its dynamics.
According to the Bank of Russia, the external debt of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2016 o yes amounted to $515.85 billion . At the same time, the organs government controlled accounts for 5.9%, on debt n ness Central Bank– 2.1%, banco in Russian debt is 25.5%, and a debt of other sectors - 66.4%(Fig. 1) . Thus, it is possible to do s waters that 8.1% of the external debt pr and goes to the public debt d set by the debt of state bodies at gift management and debt subject to goods of the Russian Federation, and 91.9%– on corporate debt, including l femininity ba n kov, as well as other sectors.
At the same time, it is interesting that until 2015 the statistics of external debt appear in lala according to a different structure and included d e external debt of the public sector in the expanded definition, inclusive a raising the external debt of state bodies R management e niya, monetary authorities and mentioned in the previous paragraphs h a duties of banks and non-banking corporations, in which R ghana government and d e gentle-credit regulation directly or indirectly own 50 and more about cents of equity or control and screw them up in a different way, as well as outside w private sector debt, which includes debt from banks and other sectors that is notquasi-sovereign. So until 2016quasi-sovereigndebt was taken into account in the statistics within the framework of about the state, since 2016 he oh falls in the total debt of banks and othersectors and is not allocated separately. However, in 2015 the size of the external quasi with the faithful debt amounted to 43.7%.
As regards the monetary structure outside w him the debt of the Russian Federation, then according to the latest data provided by Ba n com of Russia, namely, as of October 1, 2015, 67% of its total value is presented in US dollars, 17% in Russian rubles, 12% in euros and 4% in other currencies.
If we consider the dynamics of changes in the externaldebt of the Russian Federation (r is . 2 ), then it can be seen that until 2014 the volume of total external debt is growing, starting from 2014, there is a drop in the level. The most ic growth observable l Xia in 2007- 2008, when the volume of external debt increased by 22 and 48%, as well as in 2013 and 2014, when growth from about put 18 and 15% respectively(Fig. 3).
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Rice. 2. Dynamics of the external debt of the Russian Federation (2006-2016), Data source: Compiled by the author based on data from the Bank of Russia URL : http :// www . cbr. ru / statistics / credit _ statistics / debt / debt _ new . xlsx |
In 2014, the value of the external debt of the Russian Federation reached a peak level of 728.9 billion US dollars. For ra s period under review, level drop from o total external debtobserved only in 2010,when did it happen s o volume reductionaccounts and deposits e residents in Russian banks, and after 2014 - as of January 1, 2015, the decline in a 16%, as of January 1, 2016 - 13%. Before2010 specialty dynam and ki external debt of the Russian Federation was a external government debt n in the event of an increase in external debtbanks and corporations. In 2010, the about there was an increase in the level of Eurobonds of Russia th Russian Federation, which significantly affected the totalgrowth of foreign debt about sti RF.
With regard to the ratio of the state n debt and corporate debt in the structure of external debt, then for the entire With the period under review its prevailingpart always fell on the outside a Russian dutybanks and corporations a tions (tabl. 1) . In 2006, a significant and a significant decrease in the level of external state gift debt: to a greater extent this happened due to debt restructuring former USSR, which is sun e where it was considered a kind of brake on the development of the economy and ki of the Russian Federation. Noticeable and change was observed from 2006 to 2007: the debt of the former USSR, including debt to the International investment bank and the International Bank for Economic Cooperation, commercial debt n the former USSR, debt to the Western e speakers and countries of Eastern Europe, decreased from 41.8% of the total public debt to 19.3% (from 34 to 9 billion US dollars - 3.5 times) . A significant role was played by the early repayment of debt to Pari and the ski club in 2005 and 2006. Think t Xia that it helped to save the Russian Federation 12 million dollars, what is the amount of interest payments on this before l gu. There was an early repayment of allbalance of debt, restructuring about bathroom as part of the Parisian club cred and tori d about 2020, which amounted to$21.3 billion. In chi s Lo creditor countries included 17 countries: Canada, A stralia, germany, usa, netherlands, a in stria, italy, belgium, uk, switzerland, denmark, japan, spain, h and Netherlands, Norway, Norway, Sweden.The total amount paid to the Russian Federation amounted to 22.5 billion dollars and includes the amount owed about sti, as well as a fee for early repayment. Such payments led to the fact that at that time Russia became less a depend on external factors such as t dealing with creditors and the prices of our assets with tailoring goods. As regards debt about banks and corporations about walkie-talkies, then since 2008 it share was at least 89% with a peak of 93% in 2009.
Table 1. Ratio of external state and corporate debt of Russia th Federation
|
1/1/ 06 |
1/1/ 07 |
1/1/ 08 |
1/1/ 09 |
1/1/ 10 |
1/1/1 1 |
1/1/12 |
1/1/13 |
1/1/14 |
1/1/15 |
1/1/16 |
|
|
external state t military debt |
31,9% |
15,5% |
8,5% |
6,7% |
9,9% |
9,5% |
8,6% |
11,0% |
10,7% |
8,7% |
8,1% |
|
External corporate debt |
68,1% |
84,5% |
91,5% |
93,3% |
90,1% |
90,5% |
91,4% |
89,0% |
89,3% |
91,3% |
91,9% |
Data source: compiled by the author based on data from the Bank of Russia URL : accessed: 04/13/2016)
O significant corporate debt b but has been increasing since 2005, when it was $108.1 billion . In the year of the beginning of the crisis (2008), one can observe a decrease in the rate of debt growth, especially in banking, in 2009 its size is generally reduced, enterprises and org a nization debt continues to grow. For 2011-2012gg. corporate debt increased by another 122 billion Growth trend observed until 2014.
A kind of turning point in the dynamics of o passed away in 2014. Per this year Russia about cut external debt by 18%(Fig. 3) . The reason for the fall is quite objective in on - in conditions and closures to markets for external financing, due to the introduction in 2014 Western sanctions, ro s The Russian side was forced to reduce the volume of external borrowings. In private about sti, state external debt n decreased by 33.6% y-o-y, l the Central Bank’s debt – by 37.5%, banks’ debt – by 20%, debt about other sectors of the economy - by 14.3% . At the same time, there was a decrease in the sovereign rating of the Russian Federation: for example, the international rating Standard & Poor's agency downgraded Russia's rating from investment " BBB -" to "speculative" " BB +”, forecast “neg a tive". As for sovereign loans t ratings of Russia for obligations in foreign currency, then they were lower e from "BBB-/A-3" to "BB+/B", optional b stvam in national currency– from "BBB/A-2" to "BBB-/A-3". Also in January 2015 agency Fitch downgraded Russia's sovereign rating to 'BBB-' and the agency Moody's rating of state Russian regions and ratings to 'Baa3', thereby placing the ratings of the Russian Federation at the lowest level of investment and one category . All these phenomena are and led to an objective paincrease in the level of the external debt of the Russian Federationover the past two years Oh yeah .
Thus, having studied the structure outside w her debt to the Russian Federation, you can dothe following conclusions:
— distribution in the structure of external debt between public debt and private sector debt is clearly not in numbered, and over the past four years, this ratio e only increased in the direction of external corporate debt n - at the moment, 91.9% of external debt is the debt of Russian banks n kov and corporations (including quasi-sovereign debt) ;
— over the past two years, the dynamics of change e external debt of the Russian Federation a tsii i z changed: if before that its permanent growth was observed, then the analysis of the data of the last two l no shows trend down e external debt of the country by 18% in 2015 and 14% a beginning of 2016;
- also , changed the trend of past years, manifested in the reduction of foreign e government debt and increase in external corporate debt: from 2010 to 2014, the volume of not only external corporate debt grew,but also the state debt of the Russian Federation.
Thus, within the framework of the existing structure external debt of Russia th Russian Federation, a serious problem I in the size of the external corporate a duties of the countryand as far th many areas of research can be in s share the search for potential ways to solve problems of external debt Russian banks and corporations.
Bibliographic list
1. External debt of the Russian Federation (million USD)//Bank of Russia [Electronic r e source]. URL: http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/credit_statistics/debt/debt_new.xlsx
2. External debt Russian Federation in national and foreign currencies (detail and sized analytic representation)//Bank of Russia [Electronic resource].URL:http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/credit_statistics/debt_det_an_cur.xlsx (date of access: 04/12/2016)
3. Currency structureexternal debt of the Russian Federation// Bank of Russia[Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/credit_statistics/debt_currency-compos.xls (date of access: 04/13/2016)
4. Sakharov E.V. External debt of the former USSR / Mining information and analytical bulletin (scientific and technical journal). 2005. No. 12. S. 287.
5 . Gritsenko A.N. The impact of external debt on the situation of the population of Russia/ Scientists pisces of the Russian State Social University. - 2008. - No. 4. - P.82.
6. PRESS RELEASE The Multilateral Protocol on early repayment buttocks l femininity of the Russian Federation before the countries-members of the Paris Club/ Press Service of the Ministry of Finance of Russia// Ministry of Finance of Russia 06/30/2006 [ Electronic resource].URL: http://www.minfin.ru/ru/press/press_releases/index.php?id_4=2818 (date of access: 04/15/2016)
7. Aganbekyan A.G. Increasing corporate debt to foreign investors about ramie - "noose around the neck" national economy / Money and credit. - 2013. - No. 3. – P. 3.
8. S&P downgraded Russia's sovereign rating to "speculative" [Electronic r e source]. URL: http://www.banki.ru/news/lenta/?id=7607460 (date of access: 04/13/2016)
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION EXTERNAL DEBT STRUCTURE: PUBLIC AND CORPORATE DEBT PROPORTION, ITS DYNAMIC
A.I. Zhilyakova, student
Finance university under the government of the Russian Federation
(Russia, Moscow)
abstract. The article deals with the Russian Federation external debt structure and dynamic of its two main parts: public sector debt and the debt of banks and corporations. It consists of two parts: first part is devoted to current external debt structure of the Russian Federation as of 1 Ja n uary 2016, the second part implies the analysis of external debt and its parts’ dynamic from 2006 to present. The article may be useful for economists who are interested in the analysis of current e x ternal debt of the Russian Federation and its dynamic, as well as proportion of external public debt and external debt of Russian banks and corporations.
keywords: external debt, external debt dynamic, external corporate debt of the Russian Federation a tion, the Russian Federation public debt, quasi-sovereign debt.
Russia's external debt continues to grow rapidly, which is reflected in the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance for 2018. The authorities intend to postpone the maturities of bonds to later periods, which will positively affect public finances. At the same time, officials emphasize that the level of external debt is far from a critical point.
Russia's external debt continues to steadily grow. For 9 months of 2017, this indicator increased by almost 5% and exceeded $537 billion. About 10% of the debt falls on government bodies, which increased their debt in January-September by $12.5 billion. The reverse trend is observed in the banking sector, representatives whose debt was reduced by $12 billion over the same period. At the same time, the share of other sectors of the economy reached 66.3%, experts say.
Next year, the authorities will continue to increase external debt, which is fixed in the draft budget. The maximum level of public debt for the next year is fixed at the turn of 71 billion dollars, which is almost 20 billion more than this year.
Despite the alarming trends (the growth rate of public debt is significantly ahead of similar GDP indicators), the Ministry of Finance emphasizes the stability public finance. At the end of 2018, external debt will reach 15.7% of GDP, which is significantly below the critical line (20%). In addition, officials expect to restructure the existing debt, which will reduce the burden on state finances.
Next year, the Ministry of Finance expects to reduce payments on external debt by more than $1 billion. To do this, officials plan to exchange Eurobonds, the maturity of which expires in 2030. As a result of the restructuring, the deadlines will be shifted to 2027 and 2047. This measure will increase the liquidity of domestic securities.
During 2018, the authorities plan to place Eurobonds for a total of $7 billion. Mostly, resources will be attracted in dollars, which is in line with the previous practice of the Ministry of Finance. In addition, to reduce the cost of servicing external debt, officials plan to exchange Eurobonds for $4 billion.
The Ministry of Finance returned to the foreign borrowing market in 2016, having successfully placed securities for $3 billion. At the same time, the yield of Eurobonds was significantly lower than in 2013.
Despite the optimism of representatives of the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank notes negative trends for public finances. Further growth of Russia's external debt in 2018 will affect the deterioration of the stability of the domestic financial system.
At the end of 2016, the ratio of total external debt to GDP reached 42%, which has become an anti-record since 2004. A year earlier, external debt amounted to 39% of GDP, and in 2014 this figure did not exceed 29%. The debt per capita exceeds $3,500, the Central Bank emphasizes. The main reason for the deterioration of indicators is the rapid devaluation of the domestic currency.
In addition, as a result of falling energy prices, foreign exchange earnings are declining, which creates additional risks when servicing external debt. Servicing external loans takes up to 40% of foreign exchange earnings, which significantly exceeds the critical level (according to the IMF methodology - 25%).
The level of security of external debt next year will depend on the cost of "black gold". The growth of oil prices to 55-60 dollars per barrel. will provide additional foreign exchange earnings, which will offset the increase in debt. However, the implementation of the pessimistic scenario will lead to a new collapse of the oil market, which will be another test for public finances.
Experts do not rule out a drop in oil prices to $40 per barrel if overproduction continues on the market. In such conditions, the security of external debt will deteriorate significantly, experts say. In addition, in the coming years, the Russian economy will maintain low growth rates (within 2%). At the same time, external debt will grow at a higher rate, which will lead to the approach of the ratio of external debt to GDP to the critical line.
Attracting external loans cannot replace reforms aimed at increasing investment attractiveness Russian economy. The placement of Eurobonds and the shifting of debt maturities solves the short-term goals of the government. However, in the long run, public finances will remain vulnerable to external challenges.
Russia's external debt has exceeded $537 billion and will continue to increase next year. The Ministry of Finance raised the threshold for external public debt for 2018 to $71 billion. Next year, officials plan to continue attracting resources through the placement of Eurobonds. Also, the Ministry of Finance plans to reduce the burden on public finances through the exchange of securities.
The Central Bank notes the risks associated with excessive growth of external debt. Among other things, representatives of the regulator emphasize the deterioration in the level of external debt security.
19.1. In line with the Guidelines budget policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019 (hereinafter referred to as the Main Directions) main task for the next three years is to ensure a smooth transition to fully market-based financing of the budget deficit, while it is planned to systematically reduce it in relation to GDP by 1 percentage point annually in 2017-2019. The role of sovereign funds as sources of financing the budget deficit will decrease, and the share of domestic borrowings will increase in the structure of its financing sources. At the same time, the volume of borrowings in foreign markets will be determined primarily by the task of maintaining the liquidity of the sovereign Eurobond market. The Guidelines indicate that the implementation of such a strategy for financing the deficit will allow maintaining the level of public debt in acceptable amounts - up to 17% of GDP.
State debt in 2017 compared to the estimate in 2016 will increase from 13,445.2 billion rubles (16.2% of GDP) before 13,972.2 billion rubles (16.1% of GDP), or by 527.0 billion rubles (by 3.9%), in 2018 - up to 15,177.1 billion rubles (16.4% of GDP), or by 1,731.9 billion rubles (by 12.9%), in 2019 - up to 16,651.9 billion rubles (16.8% of GDP), or by 3,206.7 billion rubles (by 23.9%). Wherein share state domestic debt in the total volume of public debt in 2017-2019 will increase and amount to 74.1%, 76.3% and 76.8% share state external debt decline – 25.9%, 23.7% and 23.2% respectively.
The volume of the state internal debt of the Russian Federation, compared with the estimate of 2016, will increase from 9,867.8 billion rubles to 12,788.4 billion rubles in 2019, or by 2,920.6 billion rubles (1.3 times). The volume of the public external debt of the Russian Federation is projected to increase from 3,577.4 billion rubles in 2016 to 3,863.5 billion rubles in 2019, or by 286.1 billion rubles (by 8%).
The dynamics of the volume and structure of public debt in 2014-2019 (at the end of the year) is presented in the following table.
(billion rubles)
| 2014 report | 2015 report | 2016, law | 2016 estimate | 2017, project | 2018, project | 2019, project | |
| State debt of the Russian Federation | 10 299,1 | 10 951,9 | 12 317,5 | 13 445,2 | 13 972,2 | 15 177,1 | 16 651,9 |
| % of GDP | 13,2 | 13,6 | 15,7 | 16,2 | 16,1 | 16,4 | 16,8 |
| % to previous year | 136,4 | 106,3 | 112,5 | 122,8 | 103,9 | 108,6 | 109,7 |
| % by 2016 | 103,9 | 112,9 | 123,9 | ||||
| including: | |||||||
| Government domestic debt | 7 241,2 | 7 307,6 | 8 817,8 | 9 867,8 | 10 351,6 | 11 580,9 | 12 788,4 |
| % of GDP | 9,3 | 11,2 | 11,9 | 11,9 | 12,5 | 12,9 | |
| % to the previous year | 126,5 | 120,4 | 114,4 | 104,9 | 111,9 | 110,4 | |
| % by 2016 | 104,9 | 117,4 | 129,6 | ||||
| Government external debt | 3 057,9 | 3 644,3 | 3 499,7 | 3 577,4 | 3 620,6 | 3 596,2 | 3 863,5 |
| % of GDP | 3,9 | 4,5 | 4,4 | 4,3 | 4,2 | 3,9 | 3,9 |
| % to the previous year | 167,5 | 119,2 | 98,2 | 101,2 | 99,3 | 107,4 | |
| % by 2016 | 101,2 | 100,5 | |||||
| Reference: | |||||||
| GDP | 77 945,1 | 80 804,3 | 78 673,0 | 82 815,0 | 86 806,0 | 92 296,0 | 98 860,0 |
| Ruble to US dollar exchange rate | 61 | 63,3 | 67,5 | 67,5 | 68,7 | 71,1 | |
| Public external debt in billions of US dollars | 50,0 | 55,1 | 55,1 | 53,6 | 52,8 | 53,6 |
The analysis of the given data shows that in 2017-2019, compared with the estimate of 2016, along with an increase in the absolute volume government debt of the Russian Federation its ratio to GDP increases from 16.2% to 16.8% in 2019, while the public domestic debt will increase from 11.9% of GDP to 12.9% of GDP in 2019, external debt will decrease from 4.3% of GDP up to 3.9% of GDP, respectively.
Passport project state program Russian Federation "Public financial management and regulation financial markets» the value of the target indicator “State debt of the Russian Federation in relation to gross domestic product, no more” was reduced in 2016 from 14.3% to 20%, the same value of the indicator is provided for in 2017-2019. Thus, the volume of the public debt of the Russian Federation in the coming period is projected at a level of up to 17% of GDP, that is, it will remain at a relatively safe level.
Data on changes in the volume of public debt in 2008-2019 are presented in the following diagram.
In order to determine safe levels of volumes and structure of public debt in world practice, various indicators of debt sustainability are used. When analyzing indicators of debt sustainability from the budgetary standpoint, the ratios of the government's public debt and indicators characterizing the state of the state budget are evaluated.
The main indicators used in world practice that characterize the degree of debt sustainability in relation to the Russian Federation in 2014-2019 are shown in the following table.
| Name of indicator | year 2014 | 2015 | 2016 (estimate) | 2017 (forecast) | 2018 (forecast) | 2019 (forecast) | Criterion (indicative values) |
| Public debt of the Russian Federation, % of GDP | 13,2 | 13,6 | 16,2 | 16,1 | 16,4 | 16,8 | < 50 % |
| The share of public domestic debt in the total public debt of the Russian Federation, % | 70,3 | 66,7 | 73,4 | 74,1 | 76,3 | 76,8 | > 50 % |
| Share of public debt service expenditures in total expenditures federal budget, % | 2,8 | 3,3 | 3,9 | 4,5 | 5,3 | 5,4 | < 10 % |
| The ratio of the annual amount of payments for the repayment and servicing of public debt to federal budget revenues, % | 5,6 | 10,1 | 9,4 | 11,9 | 11,9 | 11,6 | < 10 % |
| The ratio of the public debt of the Russian Federation to federal budget revenues, % | 80,2 | 100,6 | 103,6 | 108,2 | 112,2 | < 250 % | |
| The ratio of the state external debt of the Russian Federation to the annual volume of exports of goods and services, % | 9,6 | 12,7 | 17,1 | 16,3 | 15,6 | 15,3 | < 220 % |
| The ratio of the annual amount of payments for the repayment and servicing of the state external debt to the annual volume of exports of goods and services, % | 0,8 | 1,7 | 1,3 | 1,9 | 2,3 | 1,6 | < 25 % |
It can be seen from the data in the table that such indicators as the ratio of public debt to GDP, the share of public debt service costs in the total volume of federal budget expenditures, the ratio of public debt to federal budget revenues, even taking into account the growth of their values in 2017-2019, do not exceed threshold values. At the same time, the coefficient characterizing the ratio of the annual amount of payments for the repayment and servicing of the state debt to the federal budget revenues, according to the parameters of the draft law in 2017-2019 slightly above the threshold.
The coverage ratio, which shows the ratio of the volume of payments for the repayment and servicing of public debt to the total volume of borrowings, in 2017-2019 will be 84.7%, 92.9% and 91.9%, respectively (in 2015, its value was 195.2% , in 2016 - 104.8%). The decrease in this ratio is mainly due to a significant increase in the volume of government borrowings of the Russian Federation due to the placement of government securities on the domestic market in the period under review. Against the backdrop of a significant increase in the total volume of demand from investors on their terms observed over the past two years, a sharp increase in the volume of government borrowings may lead to a deterioration in the conditions for the placement of government bonds (an increase in yields and a reduction in the terms of borrowings in the context of a limited capacity of the Russian debt market and the investment horizon of its participants ), as well as a significant increase in the volume of the state internal debt of the Russian Federation and an increase in the debt burden on the federal budget in terms of servicing it.
19.2. ceiling on public domestic debt as of January 1, 2018, it is provided in the amount 10,351.6 billion rubles, which is 483.8 billion rubles, or 4.9%, higher than the ceiling of the public domestic debt as of January 1, 2017, established federal law No. 359-FZ, subject to changes.
The dynamics of the volume and structure of public domestic debt (as of the end of the year) in 2015-2019 is presented in the following table.
| 2015 report | 2016 (Federal Law No. 359-FZ as amended) | 2017, project | 2018, project | 2019, project | 2019 to 2016, % | ||||||
| billion rubles | structure, % | billion rubles | structure, % | billion rubles | structure, % | billion rubles | structure, % | billion rubles | structure, % | % | |
| Government domestic debt, total | 7 307,6 | 9 867,8 | 10 351,6 | 11 580,9 | 12 788,4 | 129,6 | |||||
| including: | |||||||||||
| government securities | 5 573,1 | 76,3 | 6 141,1 | 62,2 | 7 205,2 | 69,6 | 8 301,0 | 71,7 | 9 388,8 | 73,4 | 153,7 |
| state guarantees | 1 734,5 | 23,7 | 3 726,7 | 37,8 | 3 146,4 | 30,4 | 3 279,9 | 28,3 | 3 399,6 | 26,6 | 91,2 |
An analysis of the above data shows that the growth of the state domestic debt is due to the increase in debt on government securities, the nominal value of which is indicated in the currency of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the share of debt on government securities in the volume of government domestic debt will increase from 69.6% in 2017 to 73.4% in 2019, on government guarantees it will decrease from 30.4% in 2017 to 26.6% in 2019.
The volume of domestic debt denominated in government securities in 2017 will amount to 7,205.2 billion rubles, which is 1,098.0 billion rubles or 18% more than in 2016, and 1,632.1 billion rubles, or 29.3% more than in 2015. In 2017-2019, it will increase by 1.5 times and by the end of 2019 will amount to 9,388.8 billion rubles.
In accordance with the Guidelines, the Ministry of Finance of Russia plans to issue new special government securities for the public in order to attract additional borrowed funds.
In accordance with Article 13 of the draft law and the Program of State Guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the Guarantee Program) for 2017 (Appendix 45 to the Draft Law), the provision of state guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation (hereinafter also referred to as guarantees) is provided for in 2017 in the amount of 190.1 billion rubles.
The planned volume of guarantees in 2017 is significantly lower than the volumes of state guarantees provided for by the programs of state guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation in 2012-2016. Thus, the planned volume in 2017 is 67.9% lower total amount guarantees in 2016 (592.5 billion rubles), 66.2% lower than the total amount of guarantees in 2015 (563.3 billion rubles).
At the same time, for a number of years there has been a negative trend in non-execution of Guarantee Programs: in 2011, the volume of actually issued guarantees amounted to 48.1% of the guarantee amount under the Guarantee Program, in 2012 - 67.8%, in 2013 - 68.3%, for 2014 - 77.1%, for 2015 - 37%. In January-October 2016, the implementation of the Guarantee Program is only 0.2% of the established volume (592.5 billion rubles).
Data on the volume of provision of state guarantees in the currency of the Russian Federation in 2017 - 2019 by guarantee purposes are presented in the following table.
| Purpose of the guarantee | The volume of provision of state guarantees in 2017, million rubles | Share in total volume, % | The volume of provision of state guarantees in 2018, million rubles | The volume of provision of state guarantees in 2019, million rubles |
| For loans or bonded loans attracted by legal entities selected in the manner established by the Government of the Russian Federation for the implementation investment projects or for other purposes established by the Government Russian Federation | 100 000,0 | 52,6 | 100 000,0 | 100 000,0 |
| For loans or bonded loans attracted by subsidiaries or affiliates of the State Corporation for Assistance in the Development, Production and Export of High-Technological Industrial Products "Rostec", as well as by subsidiaries and affiliates of these legal entities for the purpose of acquiring blocks of shares of Russian joint-stock companies or shares in the authorized capital of limited liability companies owned by RUSNANO JSC | 6 400,0 | 3,4 | not provided | not provided |
| For loans attracted by organizations of the military-industrial complex for the implementation of projects carried out within the framework of the federal target program "Development of the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation for 2011 - 2020" | 43 724,7 | not provided | not provided | |
| For loans or bonded loans attracted by legal entities registered and carrying out their main statutory activities in the territory of the North Caucasus federal district, for the implementation of investment projects to create a tourism cluster in the North Caucasus Federal District | 8 000,0 | 4,2 | 9 000,0 | 9 000,0 |
| For loans or bonded loans attracted joint stock company RUSNANO for the implementation of investment projects in the nanoindustry, financing investment funds nanotechnologies, as well as to repay loans or bonded loans attracted by RUSNANO JSC earlier to achieve the goals specified in the charter of RUSNANO JSC | 21 100,0 | 11,1 | 13 400,0 | not provided |
| For loans raised by legal entities registered and carrying out their main statutory activities in the territory of the North Caucasus Federal District, for the implementation of investment projects in the territory of the North Caucasus Federal District | 10 000,0 | 5,3 | 10 000,0 | 10 000,0 |
| For loans attracted by the United Engine Corporation OJSC to finance work on the organization of mass production of engine parts and engine nacelles of advanced engines for civil aviation | 899,2 | 0,5 | 1 115,6 | 726,9 |
| Total | 190 123,9 | 133 515,6 | 119 726,9 |
The main volume of guarantees planned to be issued in 2017 is for the purpose of guaranteeing “loans or bonded loans attracted by legal entities selected in the manner established by the Government of the Russian Federation for the implementation of investment projects or for other purposes established by the Government of the Russian Federation”. In accordance with the draft law, in 2017, for the specified purpose of guaranteeing, it is planned to provide state guarantees in the amount of 100.0 billion rubles, which is 52.6% of the total volume of provision, provided by the Program.
The volume of guarantees for this purpose in 2016 is 175.3 billion rubles, or 29.6% of the total amount of guarantees; in 2015 - 297.5 billion rubles, or 52.8%; in 2014 - 97.5 billion rubles, or 14.1%; in 2013 - 97.5 billion rubles, or 15.9%; in 2012 - 128.5 billion rubles, or 26%.
It should be noted the insufficient level of execution of the Guarantee Programs for the specified purpose of guaranteeing for last years. Thus, in 2012, out of the envisaged volume, state guarantees were actually provided in the amount of 67.6 billion rubles, or 52.6% of the established amount of guarantees, in 2013 no guarantees were provided, in 2014, 44.0 billion rubles were actually provided, or 45.1%, in 2015 - 50.9 billion rubles, or 17.1%. As of October 1, 2016, according to the State Debt Book of the Russian Federation, no guarantees were provided for this purpose.
Also, for a number of years, the main volume of state guarantees was for the purpose of guaranteeing "on loans attracted by organizations of the military-industrial complex for the purposes of fulfilling (implementing) the state defense order." Thus, in 2012, the volume of guarantees for this purpose amounted to 40.4% of the total volume provided for by the Program of State Guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation for 2012; in 2013 - 65.2%; in 2014 - 71.8%; in 2015 - 4.6%; in 2016 - 35.3%. In 2017, the provision of state guarantees for this purpose is not provided.
In 2017, a significant amount of state guarantees is planned for the purpose of guaranteeing "on loans attracted by organizations of the military-industrial complex for the implementation of projects implemented under the federal target program "Development of the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation for 2011-2020", which is 23 % of the total amount provided for by the draft Guarantee Program.
It should be noted that there are risks of non-fulfillment of the planned volumes of state guarantees provided for by the Guarantee Program for 2017. Thus, as of October 1, 2016, only 2 state guarantees were provided in the amount of 1,072.0 million rubles, or 0.2% of the volume provided for by the Program of State Guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation for 2016. Wherein Accounts Chamber repeatedly noted the uneven provision of state guarantees during the year. Thus, the bulk of the provision of state guarantees falls annually in December.
The main volume of state guarantees of the Russian Federation planned to be issued in 2017 in the currency of the Russian Federation falls on guarantees with the right of recourse or with the assignment of rights of claim to a person for whose obligations a state guarantee of the Russian Federation is presented - 83.6% of the total volume. The provision of a state guarantee without the right of recourse is planned by JSC RUSNANO in the amount of 21.1 billion rubles (the volume of state guarantees of JSC RUSNANO in 2016 is 35.5 billion rubles) and for loans attracted by legal entities registered and performing its main statutory activity in the territory of the North Caucasus Federal District, for the implementation of investment projects in the territory of the North Caucasus Federal District - in the amount of 10.0 billion rubles.
Draft Guarantee Program for 2017 for possible performance State guarantees of the Russian Federation provide for budget appropriations:
at the expense of sources of financing the federal budget deficit under guarantees provided with the right of recourse - 80,573.4 million rubles;
for federal budget expenditures on guarantees provided without the right of recourse and without assignment of rights of claim - 11,169.9 million rubles.
According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, the volume of planned budget allocations for the possible execution of state guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation in 2017 increased due to an increase in the volume of obligations compared to the Federal Law No. 359-FZ established for 2016: by sources of financing the federal budget deficit - by 39,635.2 million rubles, or 2 times, for federal budget expenditures - by 6,479.2 million rubles, or 2.4 times.
An analysis of the actual use of budgetary allocations provided for the execution of state guarantees for possible warranty cases showed that in 2014-2015 the execution of state guarantees was not carried out, in January-September 2016 the guarantor fulfilled obligations in the amount of 133.84 million rubles.
To date, the Ministry of Finance of Russia has not taken measures to implement budgetary powers to organize the drafting of the federal budget in terms of implementing methodological guidance in the formation of the draft state guarantee program. Normative act Ministry of Finance of Russia on approval of the procedure for the formation of a draft program of state guarantees of the Russian Federation (including the goals and scope of guarantee, the presence or absence of the right of recourse claim of the guarantor against the principal, as well as the presence of other conditions, including the implementation of the analysis financial condition principal when providing a guarantee) is not accepted.
It should be noted that the Accounts Chamber, in its opinion on the report on the execution of the federal budget for 2015, noted that normative document The Ministry of Finance of Russia, which determines the procedure for the formation of draft programs of state guarantees of the Russian Federation, including in the currency of the Russian Federation, has not been approved.
19.3. According to article 1 of the bill upper limit of the state external debt of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2018, it is provided in the amount US$53.6 billion, or 48.7 billion euros, which is 1.5 billion US dollars, or 2.7%, less than the upper limit of external debt as of January 1, 2017, established by Federal Law No. 359-FZ, as amended.
The dynamics of the volume and structure of the state external debt (at the end of the year) is presented in the following table.
(million US dollars)
| 2015 report | 2016 estimate | 2017, project | 2018, project | 2019, project | |||||||
| sum | structure, % | sum | structure, % | sum | structure, % | sum | structure, % | sum | structure, % | ||
| Public external debt of the Russian Federation - total | 50 002,4 | 52 803,0 | 53 558,8 | 52 806,8 | 53 585,9 | ||||||
| including: | |||||||||||
| loans foreign countries, including target foreign loans(borrowings), MFIs, other entities international law, foreign legal entities in foreign currency | 2 209,9 | 4,4 | 1 693,3 | 3,2 | 1 529,6 | 2,9 | 1 317,1 | 2,5 | 1 093,7 | ||
| government securities of the Russian Federation, the nominal value of which is indicated in foreign currency | 35 916,6 | 71,8 | 37 653,8 | 71,3 | 37 373,3 | 69,8 | 35 633,8 | 67,5 | 35 436,3 | 66,1 | |
| state guarantees of the Russian Federation in foreign currency | 11 875,9 | 23,8 | 13 455,9 | 25,5 | 14 655,9 | 27,4 | 15 855,9 | 17 055,9 | 31,8 |
When calculating the volume of the state external debt of the Russian Federation for the indicated dates, the following forecast exchange rates were used: 64.9 rubles per 1 US dollar for calculating the debt as of January 1, 2017; 67.6 rubles per 1 US dollar for calculating the debt as of January 1, 2018; 68.1 rubles per 1 US dollar for calculating the debt as of January 1, 2019; 72.1 rubles per 1 US dollar for calculating the debt on January 1, 2020. A factor of 1.10 was used to convert debt denominated in euros into dollars, except for debt as of January 1, 2017, calculated using a factor of 1.11.
The most significant part of the state external debt of the Russian Federation falls on government securities of the Russian Federation, the nominal value of which is indicated in foreign currency. As of January 1, 2017 and January 1, 2018, it will be respectively 71.3% and 69.8% of the amount of the state external debt denominated in US dollars, which is somewhat lower than on January 1, 2016 (71.8%). In 2018 and 2019, the share of government securities of the Russian Federation denominated in foreign currency will decrease slightly and amount to 67.5% and 66.1%, respectively.
It is predicted that the share of debt under state guarantees of the Russian Federation in foreign currency will be 25.5% and 27.4% as of January 1, 2017 and January 1, 2018, respectively (compared to 23.8% as of January 1, 2016), by January 1, 2019 and January 1, 2020 - 30% and 31.8%. The share of debt to IFIs, foreign governments and under a deposit agreement with central bank Libya will continue to decline: from 4.4% on January 1, 2016 to 2% on January 1, 2020.
As of January 1, 2016, the state external debt on bonds of external bond loans of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as OVOS) amounted to 35,911.2 million US dollars (2,617.3 billion rubles). In 2016, OVOZs were placed in the amount of USD 3,000.0 million, and taking into account the repayment in the amount of USD 1,273.1 million as of January 1, 2017, the debt on Eurobonds will amount to USD 37,650.5 million (2 443.5 billion rubles).
The law of the Russian Federation adopted in 1992 divided the state debt into external and internal.
The state debt of Russia for 2018 is divided into external and internal loans according to the currency of the incurred obligations. A loan in foreign currency refers to the external debt of the Russian Federation, and ruble - to the internal.
According to the 6th article of the budget code of the Russian Federation, the external debt of the state is the obligation of the country arising in foreign monetary units.
The state external debt of the Russian Federation are obligations:
The Central Bank is the official source of information on the structure, history, current state and payment plan.
Lenders are usually:
In fact, the State debt appeared in 1991 after the collapse of the Union of Secular Socialist Republics, when the Russian Federation, as a successor, took over all debt obligations.
Due to heavy economic crisis in the 1990s, after the collapse of the USSR, Russia practically did not repay its loans and took on new ones. The volume of the external debt of the Russian Federation grew until 1998 and amounted to $188 billion. After the peak and end of the crisis in 1998 and overcoming the default, the size of official payments began to decrease (see).
In the early 2000s The Russian Federation began to strengthen its economic position due to the rise in oil prices.
Already in the summer of 2006, as a result of lengthy negotiations, the loan of the Paris Club was prematurely repaid - $ 22.5 billion.
By 2008, due to available foreign loans, the debt had risen again to 0.5 tron. $.
In 2013, the credits of the USSR were repaid. Paid in the amount of $ 3.65 billion, to such countries: Montenegro, Czech Republic and Finland.
The next high was reached in 2014 - over $0.7 trillion. After that, it began to decline quite quickly due to sanctions.
At the end of 2014 - beginning of 2015. over $0.1 trillion was paid out in a few months. Which eventually led to a currency crisis and a depreciation of the ruble.
In the summer of 2017, the state debt of the Soviet Union in the amount of $ 125.2 million to Bosnia and Herzegovina was repaid.
Russia's external debt chart
As of the beginning of this year, the amount of total debt has decreased to 33% of the Gross Domestic Product from 40% previously set. This level is moderate according to annual report Central Bank.
Russia's external debt for 2018 should decrease by $50 billion:
Due to the imposition of sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation, the amount of debt is decreasing in digital terms, but growing in relative terms. Experts believe that this can be explained by a decline in GDP, a depreciation of the ruble and a reduction in energy exports due to lower world prices for them.
year: causes, counter-sanctions, implications for the economy
According to experts, the growth dynamics of Russia's external debt is not critical in relation to the debt of some other world powers.
According to forecasts, Russia's external public debt for 2018-2019 will continue to grow. Despite the planned payment for this period.
Russia's GDP and external debt: According to relative readings, public debt is approximately 5-10% of total GDP, this figure is lower only in 4 world powers.
Russia's external debt in 2018 consists of the following categories:
The structure of the external debt of the Soviet Union includes:
Almost all debt is Eurobond loans. Securities- Eurobonds, which are issued in monetary units that differ from the state currency.
The Ministry of Finance reported that the external debt of the Russian Federation decreased after the overlap of loans from the Soviet Union. Currently there is only one debt before South Korea. According to the agreements, it must be repaid by 2025.
On August 8, 2017, the Russian Federation completely paid off the debts of the USSR, paying over $125 million to Bosnia and Herzegovina.
For 10 years, Russia has forgiven 80,000,000,000 dollars to debtor states. Among the countries that have received debt relief are:
The Russian Federation has a debt to only one power - South Korea in the amount of $594 million.
