To the lowest since November 2016. The fall began on August 9, he lost more than two Belarusian kopecks, and now one hundred Russian rubles costs 3.07 Belarusian ruble. the site found out from experts what will happen to the Belarusian ruble in light of the fact that the Russian one is falling.
Teletrade financial consultant Mikhail Grachev noted that “it is not yet entirely clear what is happening with the Russian ruble and to what extent it can decline against the US dollar on the Russian foreign exchange market».
- Many associate the depreciation of the Russian ruble with new sanctions from the United States, and the word “ economic war". But, firstly, so far the new sanctions are not a fait accompli, but a draft law that was sent to Congress by a group of American lawmakers. Secondly, for some reason it remained unnoticed that over the last three trading days the US dollar has strengthened in the global financial market against all world currencies, Mikhail Grachev emphasizes. — This morning at the end of the Asian session, the Chinese yuan fell 0.56%, the Australian dollar was down 1.00%, the Canadian dollar was down 0.38%, and the Turkish lira fell 6.96%. Against this background, today's depreciation Russian currency by 0.04% is within the technical error.
The financial consultant believes that there is a powerful speculative attack on the strengthening of the dollar in the financial market. The expert has a logical question: who benefits from this and who is able to bring the world into tectonic movement? financial market?
- The strengthening of the US dollar is a blow to American exports, that is, an active opposition to the increase tariff rates from the United States, which was called the "trade war," says Mikhail Grachev. - The most active "fighting" is being conducted with China, and yesterday Chinese President Xi Jinping unambiguously declared his readiness to repulse the "gangsters" from the Capitol.
According to the specialist, the likelihood of such a development of events was, experts have repeatedly pointed to this.
- Modern China has enough capital to wage a trade war with Washington on an equal footing. Manipulating the opponent's currency rate is one of the most effective ways to cool the Washington hawks, so it is highly likely that the rate will return to its original position after the “Chinese warning,” the consultant notes. - The National Bank of Belarus in this situation does not interfere in the course of trading by intervening or buying out the declining Russian ruble.
The expert believes that “this is the right position, because something similar was observed in April, when, after a period of volatility (price volatility. - Ed.), the rates returned to the equilibrium value.”
— Since the decline of the Russian ruble is still ongoing, the RUB/BYN pair will also go down on the Belarusian market for some time. But the level is below 3.0 per 100 Russian rubles, while the dollar rises to 70.00 by Russian market is close to critical for Belarusian exports, Mikhail Grachev predicts. - The National Bank may include regulation through the currency basket, allowing the growth of the dollar on the Belarusian market.
Source: BELTA
The pressure of external factors.
Alexander Mukha notes that the reason for the hesitation exchange rate Belarusian ruble was largely caused by events on the outer contour: the depreciation of the Russian ruble against major foreign currencies last week, which occurred due to new economic sanctions by the United States.
When the strengthening of the Russian ruble against the dollar began, it turned out that with approximately the same exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the Russian ruble, our national currency strengthened, and now the Belarusian ruble is strengthening against the US dollar and the euro.
Now in the foreign exchange market the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar is trading at 67.41 rubles per $1. “The Russian ruble began to regain its previously lost positions, and, accordingly, this had a favorable effect on the dynamics of the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the euro and the dollar. If the strengthening of the Russian ruble against the dollar continues, it is possible that the Russian ruble will strengthen against the Belarusian one, that is, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the Russian one may even decrease somewhat,” the expert believes. Then the Belarusian exporters, who work in the Russian market, will be able to get an additional price competitive advantage.
It is important to understand here: the Russian market is one of the main ones for Belarusian exporters, in particular for exporters of agricultural products and food products. For individual items, the share of exports to the Russian Federation exceeds 80–90% in the overall structure of exports for a specific commodity item. Therefore, it was important to prevent excessive strengthening of the Belarusian ruble against the Russian one, so as not to lose more remote regions Russian Federation, where there is more transport shoulder and high costs for transport and logistics. Given this aspect, the position of the monetary authorities in the current situation, in my opinion, looks reasonable and rational.
Alexander Mukha
Geopolitics will set the tone for the economy.
Speaking about the forecast for exchange rates, an analyst from the BusinessForecast.by research group draws attention to the fact that much will depend on whether the new sanctions announced by the United States will be applied. If so, how serious will they be and how tangible can be negative consequences for the Russian economy and, accordingly, the Russian ruble.
One of the possible scenarios is that if there are new sanctions and they turn out to be quite serious, then at some local interval the Russian ruble may again fall against the main foreign currencies. In this case, it is possible that the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar and the euro may also go up.
“It is important to understand that in the currency basket the share of the Russian ruble accounts for 50%, that is, we do not have a link and a fixed exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the Russian one by 100%. In order to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar and the euro, in a separate segment, the National Bank may allow some strengthening of the Belarusian ruble against the Russian one - this is possible, in my opinion. But this will be a local strengthening, not excessive. In any case, it is unlikely that the dynamics of the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar and the euro will completely repeat the dynamics of the Russian ruble against these currencies,” the analyst said.
If we nevertheless assume that there will be no new package of sanctions, then Russian ruble may continue to strengthen against the dollar and the euro on the international currency market. For Belarus, this will be a plus.
Under these conditions, central bank there will be an opportunity to reduce the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the Russian one to a certain extent in order to further increase the price competitiveness of Belarusian exporters in the Russian market. In this case, excessive fluctuations of the Belarusian ruble against major foreign currencies should not be expected. From the point of view of the dynamics of the indicators of the foreign exchange market of Belarus, the current situation in the domestic foreign exchange market looks stable.
Alexander Mukha
BusinessForecast.by Research Group Analyst
In addition, the population is still a net seller of foreign currency in cash. This allows you to completely cover the net demand for foreign currency from the corporate side.
According to National Bank, business entities in January-August 2018 bought $304.9 million on a net basis, while individuals, on the contrary, they sold, taking into account non-cash transactions, $1.075 billion, and non-residents - $322.7 million.
At the same time, the structure of net demand for foreign currency by the population in January-August 2018 was as follows: net sale cash currency- $1.404 billion and conversion of ruble deposits into currency deposits on a net basis - minus $328.7 million.
Green light for exporters.
“From the point of view of fundamental economic factors, there are no significant prerequisites (if we exclude the influence of geopolitical factors) for the fall of the Russian ruble at the moment. Russia is one of the world's largest holders of gold and foreign exchange reserves ($459.4 billion as of September 7). The question is, will there be new sanctions or not, and if so, how severe will they be? Unfortunately, geopolitical factors and their influence, unlike economic ones, are extremely difficult to predict,” Alexander Mukha notes. If there are no new sanctions, then the current values of exchange rates look quite comfortable for Belarusian exporters.
According to the expert, now there is no reason to dramatize the situation in the domestic foreign exchange market. “If we look at the real effective exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble in relation to the basket of currencies of the countries - the main trading partners of Belarus, then I think that it is close to its equilibrium trajectory. The current dynamics of the real effective exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble does not have a negative impact on the dynamics of exports of Belarusian goods,” he says.
According to the National Bank, the export of Belarusian goods and services in January-July 2018 increased compared to the same period previous year by $3.761 billion (or 18.8%) to $23.759 billion.
“From the point of view of fundamental economic factors, there are no serious grounds for a significant depreciation of the Belarusian ruble. This is confirmed by the dynamics of exports and indicators of the domestic foreign exchange market, that is, the ratio of demand and supply of currency from physical and legal entities”, sums up Alexander Mukha.
For the third day in a row against the dollar and the euro. "Kur" er asked Vadim Iosuba, Senior Analyst at Alpari, explain why and what is happening with the Russian ruble and how it affects the Belarusian one.
Vadim Iosub, senior analyst at Alpari. Photo from the Facebook page “The US dollar against the Russian ruble is growing strongly for the third day in a row. It's a slightly different growth in terms of reasons. Yesterday and the day before yesterday, Wednesday and Thursday, the Russian ruble fell sharply due to a number of new sanctions that the United States plans to impose against Russia, Vadim Iosub said. - In addition, on Wednesday, the price of oil fell quite strongly - from $ 75 to $ 72 per barrel. As a result, the Russian ruble fell against the dollar. At this time, we observed the growth of the dollar and the Belarusian ruble.
Today, August 10, the growth of the dollar against the Russian ruble continued, but not because of the sanctions- the dollar itself rose against all currencies on the world market. For example, the euro against the dollar was below 1.15 - also for the first time in two years.
The dollar rose against the Russian ruble to 67 rubles. The last time this happened was in May 2016. Automatically, when the dollar grows strongly against the Russian ruble, regardless of the reasons, the dollar also grows against the Belarusian ruble. But the Russian ruble is falling against the Belarusian one.
Growth trend US dollar quite long and stable - observed since April. This is due to the fact that the American regulator, the Federal Reserve, increases interest rate and will continue to do so. And ceteris paribus, a currency whose rates are rising strengthens against other currencies.
If there are conditionally “extra” Belarusian rubles that will not have to be spent in the near future, then it is more efficient to place them on a long-term irrevocable deposit, the rates for which reach up to 12.5%. It will be more profitable than buying dollars."
In exchange offices, the dollar costs 3,100 Belarusian rubles. But there is no currency there, even if you stand in line all day. On the exchange, the currency is sold at 3045, but only to enterprises that need dollars-euro to pay for gas or ensure the supply of medicines. For all the currency at this price is not enough. The National Bank allowed banks to sell dollars-euro to enterprises at 10% more than the official rate. But even at 3400-3600 it is difficult for a business to find “green” ones. Contracts with importers are broken, many small firms that work with imports have just gone on vacation. It seems that no one in the country now knows how much a dollar is actually worth. Some experts blame the Belarusians' wages that increased last year for the crisis, saying that the average $500 has not yet been earned in the country. Others say that those who want to buy a foreign car are taking the currency out of the country, because from July 1, duties on cars will rise to the level of Russian ones. So what is really happening with the Belarusian ruble?
Georgy GRITs, professor at the Institute of Continuing Education of Belarusian State University: “The devaluation of the Belarusian ruble will do more harm than good”
I think this is a natural result. economic policy when Belarus, hoping for better times, lived beyond its means. We have been importing more than we have exported for the last five years. There is not enough currency, not because there is a rush in the automotive market, but because the government's forecasts for export growth, import reduction and, as a result, competitiveness growth did not materialize. Belarusian economy generally. Of course, one can say that the Russian side is to blame, which increased the cost of gas and oil. But about this, as well as about the fact that duties on cars will rise in Belarus from July 1 of this year, we did not learn today or yesterday ...
This January, the negative balance was almost 300% higher than in January last year. In February - again increased by a hundred percentage points compared to the comparable period. In my memory, the country has not yet known such a growth rate of the foreign trade deficit ... In fact, this sad fact can, using sports terminology, be perceived as a “red card” for the current industrial policy.
We need to change something in the structure immediately. budget spending, highlight priority sectors, and maybe even enterprises, on which to concentrate all the resources available to the state. It is necessary to learn a simple truth - there will not be enough budget money for all!
Belarus has had a negative balance of foreign trade for several years now. Why did the currency deficit happen only now?
You are right - we have been living with a negative foreign trade balance for many years, but in the period from 1996 to 2006 its value fluctuated in the amount of one and a half billion dollars annually, and the government solved this problem without significant external borrowing. Then the negative balance of foreign trade grew almost exponentially, and it was no longer possible to do without serious external borrowing. Over the past three years, the external public and corporate debt of Belarus has increased 10 times. But the question is not whether it was necessary to increase debts or not. Necessary. Almost the entire world today lives in debt. The problem is that, as life has shown, the previous government did not have clear answers to two simple questions: for what priority purposes should these funds be spent and, most importantly, how will we give them back. The current government has actually become a hostage to such a policy. And besides, in the conditions of today's unfavorable external situation, it has lost its customary preferences from Russia
An attempt by the National Bank over the past three months to maintain the stability of the Belarusian ruble through foreign exchange intervention on the foreign exchange market has led to a decrease in the gold and foreign exchange reserves, intended to act as a "safety cushion" for the entire monetary system, a quarter compared to the fall of last year.
A further decrease already threatened with serious problems ... I will give only one figure. At the beginning of March, foreign currency deposits of the population in Belarusian banks amounted to about 4.7 billion dollars in equivalent. This value has already exceeded the current level of gold and foreign exchange reserves. And given that our state bears full responsibility for the contributions that lie in commercial banks, further reduction of strategic gold and foreign exchange reserves already posed a serious threat.
- How do you assess the measures of the National Bank, which imposes restrictions on the foreign exchange market?
This is a return to the previous policy of solving macroeconomic problems with administrative prohibitive measures. At first glance, these measures in the short term could, if not solve, then at least freeze the negative trends that have developed in the foreign exchange market. But in real life, they not only did not solve these problems, but gave them the character of a public discussion and, as a result, contributed to an unhealthy hype in the foreign exchange market.
Moreover, their initiators did not take into account, or perhaps simply did not know, that such actions may be perceived by our partners in the Customs Union as unfriendly restrictive measures against local companies supplying products to the Belarusian market. What happened. At the request of the Russian and Kazakh sides, after less than a month, a decision was made to lift restrictions on the conversion and transfer of payments for products supplied from these countries.
- You started by saying that the state should spend less...
Unfortunately, reducing or optimizing costs is only the first part of the journey that needs to be taken. It must be remembered that since January 2012, when the CES comes into force, the Belarusian side has been losing those levers of support, largely due to which the current state of the Belarusian economy was formed. The adoption and implementation of the full package of CES requirements by Belarus will entail a review of the entire range of currently used mechanisms state support. In terms of rules international trade most of them are either prohibited or punishable subsidies. In other words, they must be canceled or adjusted in accordance with the signed agreements.
But it's good for the economy.
As I always say, it's good if you and I play the Monopoly game. If the company is unprofitable, let's sell this chip. If imported products are cheaper or of better quality, we will refuse the domestic supplier. But real life much more versatile. Do not forget that behind every enterprise there are tens, hundreds of thousands of living people. It seems to me that in the current situation, sadly, the population and the real sector of the economy will suffer the most ... And if you cut it “on the live”, then at least you need to be sure that we did our best in the current situation.
I repeat once again - objectively we have another two or three years to restructure our economy and bring the existing system of cross-subsidization in line with international requirements, including in the social sphere. But this must be done immediately. The later we start, the more difficult the consequences will be and the more expensive the price of inevitable reforms.
The difference between the current situation and the situation of the 90s that we experienced is in one small detail. And then and now there is not enough money. But then there were sources of replenishment of the budget - the same oil industry, the border. Today these sources are melting. Now there are Russian border guards on the border, and Russia takes the duties on oil products.
- What should be done now to stabilize the situation?
The simplest solution is not even to reform our economy (it's an LP). Today it is necessary to "cut" expenses. But not in the real sector of the economy, as suggested by the Ministry of Economy. It is necessary to cut the cost of maintaining the state apparatus. But it also needs to be done smartly. If we reduce its number, then simultaneously, and perhaps even to a greater extent - to reduce the managerial or control functions of the state apparatus. Including, by expanding the powers of business entities directly.
As for the real sector of the economy - and this is a bitter truth - without support, most of our enterprises simply will not survive. But there is not enough money in the budget for everything. That is why the most important task of the government is to determine the "points of growth" of the national economy.
- Is the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble needed now?
No. Moreover, I would say that it will do more harm than good. Indeed, devaluation is a short-term macroeconomic tool to increase the price competitiveness of local exporters by reducing the cost of labor or components from the same local producers. But at the same time, devaluation also increases the cost of imports, because for the same unit of production it will be necessary to pay a large amount of Belarusian rubles. Today we have about half of all exports formed by three positions - oil, potash fertilizers and ferrous metals. These are three types of products with very low added value. For the rest of Belarusian enterprises, whose contribution to the formation of export potential is an order of magnitude smaller, but which employs almost 80 percent of the able-bodied population, the share of the import component is from 60 to 95 percent. The increase in the cost of this import component will be like death. Because today - the main trump card of Belarusian products - it's not quality or manufacturability, but the price - will be destroyed.
- And according to your forecasts, when will I, a citizen of Belarus, be able to freely buy 100 dollars?
You can probably buy $100 today, of course, if you're lucky. But if we are talking about a larger amount, moreover, about an exchange for official exchange rate, and at the same time not rely only on luck - it will be problematic to do this in the coming months ... Well, what will happen in half a year or a year - largely depends on the actions of the National Bank and the government in the field of macroeconomics. But as the previous period showed, to a large extent this is “guessing on the coffee grounds” ...
- Wouldn't it be better in this situation to remember that Belarus was once going to introduce the Russian ruble?
We must be honest, replacing the national currency with the Russian ruble is a loss of sovereignty. If we want to lose sovereignty, we need to introduce it, if we don’t want it, we need to do something.
Stanislav BOGDANKEVICH, ex-head of the National Bank of Belarus (1991-1995): “Today the situation is certainly better than in the 90s”
Today in Belarus the ruble money supply far exceeds the needs of the economy, that is, it does not correspond to the mass of commodities and the inflow of hard currency. It is this imbalance that leads to an increase in prices and to a real devaluation that would occur if the exchange rate in Belarus was formed through the market.
How did this imbalance come about?
violated economic law about the growth cash income First of all, wage growth should correspond to labor productivity and be a little lower. If income rises faster growth performance, it always results in skew. In Belarus, wages, pensions, allowances, etc. were administratively increased in the second half of last year. The national product grew by 7-8%, and the money supply - by 30-40%, this discrepancy led to disproportions in the economy.
- It turns out that Belarusians have not yet earned an average salary of $500, but how much did they earn?
It evaluates the market, supply and demand. But indirectly, any economist will be able to estimate how much more we consume than we produce. This is evidenced by the trade deficit. Per last year we bought abroad 8 billion more than we produced. These 8 billion should be taken away from the monetary incomes of the population as money not earned by our economy and our people. This amount was eaten, consumed inside Belarus. This is over consumption.
- What will it result in - devaluation, inflation?
This is already resulting in devaluation and inflation. Belarus ranked first in Europe in terms of inflation in the first two months of this year. Our inflation is higher than in Ukraine, Russia, Moldova. Prices are rising.
Now many say that the country is going through the 90s. Is it possible to compare the current situation with that time?
The situation today is certainly better. We have gold and foreign exchange reserves, which did not exist at all in the mid-1990s. When I assumed the position of the head of the National Bank, we not only had no reserves, we had a minus. And then we accumulated - 100,200,300 million dollars. Today, after all, almost $4 billion remains in reserves. The indicators are better, but the civilized foreign exchange market is being disorganized. It is necessary that the dollar and the euro cost as much as they cost and how much they are willing to pay for them, so that any subject, any citizen can purchase currency at a market price. We have closed this opportunity for today. This leads to a multiplicity of rates, to the shadow market, to corruption. Today in Russia you can buy dollars for 4,000-5,000 Belarusian rubles; with us, you can buy them for 3,000 rubles. This is an abnormal situation and under no circumstances could it be returned to.
- And how long can it last.
The government should immediately work out a program to stabilize the economy and the monetary sphere, which would include obtaining external loans for a certain amount. This must be done in conjunction with the sale. state property. On the other hand, it is necessary to limit funding from the budget government projects. It is necessary to reduce subsidies to housing and communal services and agriculture. If we reduce government spending, limit bank lending to inefficient government projects, then we will reduce the ruble-money supply and get foreign exchange earnings. These emergency measures could improve the situation in a few months. Yes, this will lead to a deterioration in the standard of living, but this is normal in this case.
In addition, it is necessary to reduce the salaries of senior officials, because it is impossible with a productivity of 7% to increase salaries by 50%. If the people and enterprises do not have rubles, they will not be able to apply to the foreign exchange market, a free currency will appear and the problem will be solved by itself. In the meantime, the situation when an entrepreneur, small and medium business, a citizen can not promptly buy the currency, leading to a deterioration in the investment climate.
- Can Belarusian business develop without foreign currency?
To some extent, maybe, but not for long. Today the economy of Belarus is open. Specific gravity imports in the economy - 68%.
- That is, if we produce something for 1 ruble, then it contains 68 kopecks of imported goods?
Yes. Therefore, the lack of currency will disorganize the entire economy. Of course, entrepreneurs will adapt, will overpay for foreign currency, raise prices. But this is not normal. Need to change economic model so that it gives the same effect as the Poles. We have last year average salary was 500 dollars, and in Poland - one and a half thousand. But in the 90th year, we had the same indicators with the Poles.
And now they say that the crisis began also because everyone rushed to buy foreign currency, because they want to bring a foreign car before July 1, when duties will be raised to the level of Russian ones. Is there such a dependence?
There is, but not much. Let's say 300 million dollars spent by the population on the purchase of cars, even a billion. But this is not the money. Belarus today needs about 10 billion dollars a year. This is the minimum necessary to stabilize the situation.
- If Russia and the EurAsEC allocate a three billion loan to the country, will this be enough for several months?
I think that if other measures are taken at the same time - limiting state projects, freezing wages, pensions - then this will lead to a certain improvement in the balance. According to the new government, we need to receive investments from outside in the amount of more than 6 billion dollars a year, about the same amount of external loans, then we will function normally.
- Which of our industries bring currency to the country?
Potassium, tractor building, mechanical engineering, oil products. Need to develop Agriculture. Every year we give this industry two billion dollars, and they sell products and even have no profitability.
- When will a simple resident of the country be able to buy currency in an exchanger?
My wife wanted to buy $50 to pay the tutor for English tutoring. I could not. When can? When will the political will solve this problem. I mean, when the Russians will give a loan, when the authorities carry out a devaluation of 10-15%, which is actually already underway, when they limit the creation of empty rubles, etc.
In October 2017, S&P analysts upgraded the long-term credit ratings of Belarus for liabilities in foreign and national currency from "B-" to "B". Six months ago, the agency gave a stable outlook for sovereign ratings. Translated from expert language into ordinary, a "stable" rating means that in the near future (up to several years) the rating will most likely not change.
In the spring of 2018, what S&P warned about happened - the rating did not grow, but it did not fall either. Now Belarus has from the main rating agencies sovereign ratings corresponding to "B" on the S&P scale. Probably, in the eyes of foreign analysts, the country has reached the ceiling beyond which the rating increase is only due to structural reforms in the economy.
So far, the sovereign ratings of Belarus belong to the "junk" category. Recall that the category of "investment" ratings includes AAA, AA, A and BBB. Anything below (BB, B, CCC, CC, C, SD and D) delegates rated borrowers to risky borrowers.
S&P assessed the quality of the economic policy of the Belarusian authorities and the current state of the economy as low. To assess the government's creditworthiness, the agency's analysts use several major rating factors. Each factor has a scale from "1" (the best value) to "6" (the worst value).
By flexibility monetary policy Belarus got a 6 from S&P, 5 for another 3 rating factors, 4 for the other two. Agree, the authorities need to work and work to improve the situation.
Good news: according to S&P experts, Belarus will cope with payments on foreign currency debts in 2018. This will happen in the base scenario, that is, if everything in Belarus remains approximately the same as today. The main threat to the rating is the poorly predictable behavior of the main creditor of Belarus - the Russian Federation.
Belarus will have to raise new loans to pay off debts that mature in 2019-2020. . The agency assumes that for this purpose Belarus will enter the debt markets of China and Russia and repeat the trick with Eurobonds. In the base scenario from S&P, and for these 2 years, a successful passage of debt payments is visible.
Traditionally, S&P notes the patchwork nature of Belarus' gold reserves. Of the 7 billion USD of official reserves, about 4 billion USD are represented by the deposit of the Ministry of Finance in the National Bank. The Ministry of Finance's deposit is bad because it is partly formed from money from the placement of Eurobonds and loans received.
Also, the NBRB has 1.3 billion USD of liabilities to banks in the form of foreign currency bonds. These obligations are internal, but there are also external debts National Bank. As of March 1, the NBRB had external debts of USD 1 billion. Partially given debt represents euro bond issues in the amount of EUR 356 million. All bonds must be redeemed or refinanced in 2018-2019.
As you can see, the real amount of reserves that the authorities can use to smooth out exchange rate fluctuations on the stock exchange is very small. In this case, exchange rate. S&P considered that the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble will continue in 2018-2021.
According to estimates based on the agency's data, the average annual rates for the USD/BYN pair may grow from 2.05-2.10 BYN per 1 USD in 2018 to 2.45-2.50 BYN per 1 USD in 2021. Although it is worth noting that the previous forecasts for statistics from S&P turned out to be overly pessimistic. In other words, nominal weakening of the BYN ruble is almost guaranteed, but a strong depreciation is unlikely.
