The end of 2014 was marked by many events, including, unfortunately, very clear signs of an impending economic crisis in the country. Many Russians could feel it for themselves, unsuccessfully trying to get a loan on the eve of the upcoming holidays. Most of them wondered if the banks simply stopped issuing loans.
In fact, both versions have every right to exist, since by the end of the year many credit organizations almost directly announced the suspension of loans. Unofficial signals even came from large banks, including Rosselkhozbank.
In fact, full stop lending activities, of course, was not, but underwriting became more stringent, the most beneficial programs for customers disappeared from the list of offers (including affiliate programs with installments), and the list of available mortgage products was significantly reduced.
There are more than enough reasons for the development of the situation in this way, but we will single out the most significant of them.
Outflow of funds
As everyone knows, banks need inflow for their activity. Money, which they provide to a large extent through loans from foreign partners. Their share is about 10% of total banking liabilities.
In connection with the imposed sanctions for many banks foreign loans become unavailable or operate in a limited mode. They came under pressure, which negatively affects the state of the entire banking sector.
Another way to raise funds is to place clients' money on deposit, but there are serious problems with this too: frightened depositors are in a hurry to withdraw their savings both in rubles and in foreign currency.
In order not to sow additional panic, banks have not yet set limits on withdrawals, but such an outflow also does not contribute to their further strengthening.
In an attempt to somehow patch up the resulting gaps, some banks were carried away by making money on the currency exchange (the soil there is now very fertile for this), thereby further reducing the amount of funds available to borrowers.
Debt load
Second on the list, but not in importance, the reason is too high level debt load of the population. Many borrowers already have far more than two or three loans, which has a very negative impact on the quality of their service: the share of overdue debts is growing, nullifying all the positive results of banks.
The growth of overdue debt is becoming one of the main problems of organizations that have made the main bet on retail lending and they simply stop issuing loans.
Highly a difficult situation now with the mortgage sector. Two huge risks that are likely to materialize in the near future, a decline in borrowers' income and a fall in real estate prices, also play against banks.
And taking into account the fact that almost half of mortgage loans were issued with down payment less than 30%, or even less than 20%, an increase in the volume of overdue debts on housing loans could have a significant impact on the finances of banks.
Against the backdrop of favorable forecasts for improving the quality of loan portfolios, no one gives, so banks are forced to tighten underwriting when considering applications.
Tightening control
Do not facilitate the work of banks and regulatory organizations. The most significant decision of the past year, which led many to a dead end, was a sharp increase, after which the issuance of loans at the old rates became simply unacceptable.
The vast majority of credit institutions were not ready for such a development of events, which led many to a temporary suspension of the issuance of funds (until the situation was clarified). And against the backdrop of an increase in the key rate, the restriction maximum bid loans further exacerbated the situation. True, the last measure was promised to be temporarily suspended.
New regulatory standards introduced in 2014 impose higher requirements on capital adequacy and quality, and tighten requirements for disclosure of banking information.
All these measures will eventually lead to the centralization of the banking sector, ridding it of unscrupulous participants who have problems with compliance with the law. But at the same time, work mainly with consumer lending will not be very effective. The new conditions will require banks to diversify their programs.
Results of the year
All these events that took place in a fairly short period of time have already left their mark, and the results could be observed throughout the past year.
The increase in the share of overdue loans led to the fact that about a fifth of the banks worked at a loss. Among them is Home Credit and Finance Bank, in whose practice this is the first such case. Even in the midst of the crisis of 2008-2009, the HCF managed to go positive. In 2014, according to the results of each quarter, a loss was recorded, which at the end of the third quarter amounted to 4.2 billion rubles compared to 9.4 billion net profit for the same period of the previous year. As a result - the closure of the most unprofitable offices and the reduction of staff.
Roughly the same problem was faced by Russian Standard Bank, with the difference that they suffer losses not only this year. The situation is exacerbated by the lack of growth loan portfolio. In total, 30 big banks This year's earnings are down from previous year by 3% -4%.
Another surprise was presented to us by Trust Bank, according to which the Central Bank made a decision on reorganization at the end of the year. Such a procedure in relation to a bank from the TOP-30 is a very rare and significant case. One of the serious problems of the organization is the low capital adequacy ratio (10.76% with the required minimum of 10%).
Often the bank does not give a loan without even explaining the reason for the refusal. As a result, many borrowers do not know what to do to get a loan approved. This is strange, because the sooner a person corrects himself in the eyes of the bank, the sooner he can become its full-fledged client. Perhaps this article will shed light on your "shortcomings" in the eyes of the bank.
Everything is clear here. However, some banks may turn a blind eye to minor delays (for example, up to 5 days). In any case, you need to check the history.
Even if you have never applied for a loan, you may be denied. This is because the bank does not have your payment history data to analyze how you will pay. Therefore, if other criteria do not meet the requirements, the loan will be denied. And if on the contrary, and even the income quite allows, then they may well approve.
To create credit history It is enough to take a small loan and pay it back on time.
Contrary to the opinion of some, early repayment is not a sign of a good borrower, but vice versa. It is beneficial for the bank to receive interest from payments, and in case of early repayment, they are reduced to a minimum. Yes, banks have programs with a possible early repayment, but the contract specifies the moment until which this cannot be done (for example, not earlier than the expiration of 1 year). Also, banks usually impose a commission on early repayment.
If you can't afford to pay several loans or even one, refinance.
Rejection due to operating loans associated with the bank's likely inability to pay them all. It depends on the income of the borrower: if it is not enough even to pay off existing debts, then there is no need to aggravate the situation for you. After all, many take out a loan to pay off the previous one and so go in cycles.
Even the banal use of a credit card can affect a negative decision on a loan. The fact is that the bank considers a credit card as an unsecured loan. And if credit card payments, together with expenses, exceed half of income, the bank has no reason to approve the loan, because you simply won’t pull it.
If the monthly payments on the loan will exceed half of the monthly income, the loan will not be given. At mortgage lending solvency is taken into account total income families, since, as a rule, spouses act as co-borrowers on a mortgage.
The requirements for the minimum length of service at the last place of work are different: some need 4 or 6 months, others need at least 1 year. The bank's logic here is simple: the longer the length of service at the last place of work, the more likely that the borrower will continue to work there and further, receiving a salary with which he will repay the loan. But it also happens that the minimum length of service is sufficient, but job changes are frequent (for example, in 2 years the borrower changed 4 jobs, but worked at each for six months). In this case, the bank will not take risks.
Let's start with the students. Not all banks issue loans from the age of 21 and, moreover, from the age of 18 (usually from 23-24 years old). This is due to solvency, since not everyone at this age works, and a high probability of being drafted into the army, due to which repayment will become impossible for the period of service.
From the age of 18, for example, you can enter into a mortgage with a pledge of the purchased property, which serves as a guarantee of return bank funds. At the same age, you can draw up some credit cards and loans.
As for pensioners or people close to retirement, it is important to know that at the time of full repayment of the loan (that is, making the last payment), the age of the borrower should not exceed a certain bar set by the bank (65–75 years). Therefore, if there are problems with age, you need to take a loan for a shorter period.
Banks are constantly improving their methods of checking future borrowers, therefore, most likely, they will reveal fake documents or false information. And by the way, can not only refuse a loan, but also prosecute under the article of fraud. This also includes cases when a person leaves different information about himself in different banks.
If the conviction has not yet been removed, the loan will be denied unambiguously. Also will be denied if they have a criminal record economic articles . They can refuse on administrative charges and even on drives to the police.
They are “nominal directors”, they are also “nominal founders”. These are people on whom dozens of companies are registered, but in fact they do not manage them. Banks keep a list of such "nominal values" and never issue loans to them.
The whole point is that such people can say that they signed loan agreement in a state of insanity, so the court may well recognize such an agreement as invalid.
Some banks include in the requirements for the borrower the presence of a stationary home phone. Thus, the bank understands that a person has a place of permanent residence in order to know where to look for it in case of termination or delay in payments.
A more stringent requirement is to have a fixed work phone. After all, any normal organization should have at least one landline phone. If not, it is at least suspicious.
The bank may refuse a loan due to work on individual entrepreneur, because the the risk of closing an IP is higher than a JSC or LLC. This requirement not always spelled out in plain text, so you need to pay attention to footnotes and small print.
In addition to analyzing the borrower, the bank also analyzes the organization in which it works. And if she has a dubious reputation or is not in the best financial condition, then workers can be left without wages or work.
When a business owner wants to take out a loan for himself (that is, as an individual), banks are wary, believing that in fact this money can go to the needs of the business. In such cases, it is better to take non-target consumer credit.
For example, if the borrower indicates that he works as a manager with a salary of 150,000 rubles, while the average market salary is 50,000 rubles, the bank will have suspicions not so much about the person as about the activities of the organization in which he works. It is quite possible that given salary it will not last long and may drop to the market average, which will affect loan repayments.
Given the previous paragraph about business, it is important to understand that if a borrower wants to take a loan for a specific purpose (for repairs, for recreation, for business), then you need to apply to a specific lending program. For example, it will not be possible to take a consumer loan to start a business or a car. For this, there are appropriate targeted programs (in this case, “business loan” and “auto loan”). Banks even have special loans for household appliances, furniture, telephones, computers and more. And for various household needs, it is easier to issue the same non-purpose loan.
If at least 2-3 banks are refused, the next bank will think about it: maybe they didn’t refuse in vain. And without thinking twice will do the same
Unpresentable appearance(dirty clothes, tattoos on open areas of the body, bad smell) may be sufficient reason to refuse a loan. Especially if a person indicated a good position and a high level of income.
A shifty look, biting lips, shaking fingers and knees - all this leads to suspicion that a person is either not going to repay the borrowed funds, or is keeping something back about the purpose of the loan.
In accordance with the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, the bank is not obliged to provide a loan, nor is it obliged to report the reason for the refusal.
There are a couple of interesting points on the video, because of which they may also not give credit:
If the above reasons for refusing to issue a loan do not apply to you, but they still do not give a loan, it makes sense to seek professional help from loan brokers, as well as for errors.
Source: RIA News"
According to the new requirements of the Central Bank of Russia, the higher the total cost of the loan and the client's PTI, the more funds the bank must freeze in its accounts as a reserve. And this is a direct way to reduce the indicator of his own capital, problems with the Central Bank and the deprivation of a license.
It is obvious that it will be easier for banks not to get involved with indebted borrowers at all.
They tried not to do this before, but now the rule is common to all market players. The changes went into effect on October 1st. And the current procedure will remain until October 2020 only for car loans and loans in the amount of up to 50 thousand rubles.
Minister economic development Maxim Oreshkin has repeatedly stated that the situation in consumer lending becomes dangerous.
Already 15% of borrowers spend more than 70% of their income on debt repayments.
And the new rules for issuing loans, as the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina assured, will slow down the growth rate of consumer lending from the current 20% to 10-15% per year.
Source: RIA News"
You can calculate your debt load yourself. To do this, you need to add the payment on the proposed loan to the amount of monthly payments on current loans. And the resulting figure is divided by the average monthly income for the year and multiplied by one hundred.
For example, the Petersburger Peter monthly income 30 thousand rubles and a valid car loan, according to which he pays 15 thousand every month. And he wants to take out another loan for a new iPhone 11, with a monthly payment of 5,000. But first, he needs to know his debt load. Add payments on current loans to the payment of the proposed loan, divide the amount by income and multiply by one hundred: (15,000 + 5,000) / 30,000 × 100 = 66.7%. That is, Peter's debt load with a new loan will already be 66.7%. And this is a bad indicator, since a level above 50% is considered risky for banks.
When calculating the debt load, loans in which a person acted as a guarantor will be taken into account if there are delays on such loans for more than 30 days. If a loan with a guarantee is paid without delay, it will not affect the debt load.
In 2014, for the first time in several years, the incomes of the population decreased and became negative. Against the backdrop of the crisis, there is an outflow of deposits from banks and an increase in the volume of loans, especially mortgages. The devaluation of the ruble makes Russians, in an attempt to save their savings, invest in real estate.
At the same time, banks stopped issuing loans with a minimum down payment, tightened requirements for borrowers and raised interest rates after the shock increase in the key rate of the Central Bank in December 2014.
In the article, we will analyze the situation that has developed in the country's credit market and consider the reasons that influenced the change in the conditions for granting loans.
The reasons
Excessive demand for borrowed funds in 2014, combined with a fall in the solvency of the population, led to an increase in risks banking system, which forced credit organizations to significantly tighten requirements for borrowers and increase the down payment on mortgage products. At the moment, large organizations primarily focus on good risk management, and not on growth rates or market share.
For example, for such bigwigs as Russian Standard, Home Credit, Orient Express, the level of overdue debts is many times higher than average by market. This is due to the high proportion of unsecured loans. The actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to cool the market and the debt of the population on loans led to an increase in “bad cases” against the backdrop of a slowdown in lending.
At the Russian Standard, the delinquency on retail loans in May 2014 amounted to 17.4% (46.3 billion rubles), at " Eastern Express» losses in the four months of 2014 reached 1.8 billion.
As of May 1, 2014, Home Credit Bank's arrears in the retail loan portfolio amounted to 16.3% (45.2 billion rubles) with huge volumes of sales of "bad" debts. For four months of 2014, the organization received a loss under RAS in the amount of 19.4 million rubles. Starting from the second half of 2013, Home Credit has seen a reduction in its loan portfolio and lower costs.
The Russian economy is steadily slipping into recession, and the problems will grow exponentially. Given the negative experience, most financial institutions are reviewing their own proposals, tightening requirements for borrowers and trying to work in those market segments that differ minimum level risk.
prospects mortgage programs in 2015
Rapid growth in mortgage demand is explained by investment purposes, while there is an increase in the volume of loans issued using maternity capital.
Majority mortgage loans this year they were issued without proof of income and employment. Risks in such a situation were covered by a high down payment, which in some banks reaches 40% -50% of the property value.
Mortgage remains the only product for which the debt burden of the population is at a low level, so experts believe that next year it will become the main driver of the market.
Are sanctions scary?
Sanctions affected 50% of banks' assets, however, the indirect impact, which has a long-term effect, is much more dangerous. Loss of investor confidence and capital outflows in the face of a lack of growth in the economy can cause irreparable damage to the financial sector.
The sanctions imposed by the West on Russian financial institutions have already affected many. Sberbank, VTB 24, Gazprombank, Rosselkhozbank, Vnesheconombank, Bank Rossiya fell under the sanctions. Financial institutions access to European and American capital markets is now restricted.
As a result, Vnesheconombank, Gazprombank and Rosselkhozbank have already asked the government to financial assistance. In combination with the December increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, the restriction of access to Western funds led to an increase in rates in commercial organizations. In the near future we should expect a further increase in interest on loans in all banks in the country.
The effect of the sanctions will be felt more acutely over time and, if Russia's foreign policy does not change, there will be serious problems with liquidity in banks. In December 2014, deposit rates were significantly raised individuals, however, the population is in no hurry to trust their savings financial institutions due to unstable economic situation in the country.
Russian banks are trying to find an alternative to cheap Western money, but this is impossible. The Asian market will not be able to replace European loans due to the peculiarities of doing business and limited resources. An increase in demand will only lead to higher rates, moreover, the shareholders of many organizations in Asia are European and American banks.
Sanctions affect not only the banking sector, but the entire economy of the country. Growth is slowing and many companies will be unable to fund or repay existing loans, leading to loan defaults. So far, the only way out is the liquidity assistance of the Central Bank, which has already been approached by several large organizations.
A decision was made to increase the capitalization of VTB and Rosselkhozbank, and the Supervisory Board of Sberbank approved the appeal to the Central Bank for financing. Another 19 Russian banks also asked for help. However, only organizations with state participation and the largest credit institutions can count on it.
Due to the lack of liquidity, banks have already begun to fight for depositors, which will continue in 2015. In December 2014, deposit rates increased significantly. However, along with the growth of interest rates on deposits, the rates on loans will continue to grow.
Most banks are trying to attract borrowers with a positive reputation, who can choose based on the size of rates, but organizations will have to increase interest rates after the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank.
What's in store for banks in 2015
The forecast for the development of this sector for 2015 is pessimistic. The overall situation will be increasingly affected by the lack of liquidity, the decline in capitalization and income due to sanctions and internal economic problems. At the same time, the level of debt load of the population and the volume of overdue debts are growing. At the same time, the requirements of the regulator are being tightened, and the solvency of the population and business is falling.
In this situation, banks must completely revise their strategies and rebuild their operating principles. It is likely that loan offers will decline in the near future, and settlement and cash services and other non-lending products to develop.
The Russian economy and the country's banking sector in 2015 will depend on the situation around Ukraine and relations with the West. Experts hope that economic interests countries will prevail over the political ambitions of the leadership and the situation will not be brought to a critical point.
