2.2 Basic demographic indicators.
All indicators can be divided into two main types: absolute and relative. Absolute indicators (or values) are simply the sums of demographic events: (phenomena) at a point in time (or in a time interval, most often for a year). These include, for example, the population on a certain date, the number of births, deaths, etc. for a year, month, several years, etc. Absolute indicators are not informative in themselves, they are usually used in analytical work as initial data for calculation of relative indicators. For comparative analysis, only relative indicators are used. They are called relative because they always represent a fraction, a ratio to the population that produces them.
The first most general quantitative measure of population is the size, determined by census, current accounting, and in the presence of certain research conditions, by mathematical modeling, the simplest types of which are prospective and retrospective extrapolation.
The essential characteristic of the population is the ratio of its size and the size of the territory in which it lives. This ratio is measured by the population density index, which is characterized by the number of inhabitants per a certain area, for example, per square kilometer of their territory. At the same time, it is important to know not only the total population density, but also in the context of regions of various scales, depending on the objectives of the study.
Russia, especially its eastern and northern regions, belongs to the territories with the lowest population density. By dividing the population of Russia of 141 million people (at the beginning of 2010) by the area of the territory of Russia (17075.4 sq. km), we get the population density at the indicated point in time - 8.3 people per 1 sq. km. At the present stage, this causes many vulnerable circumstances that make its geopolitical, military, economic and other position very fragile. Similar conclusions can be drawn regarding the potential of its sparsely populated territories (municipalities).
The population is differentiated into constituent elements according to the most important criteria for social management:
Age and age structure- the ratio of the number of individual age groups;
Gender and gender composition - the ratio of the number of men and women in the population as a whole and by different ages;
Marital status and family composition - distribution of the population by family status (married, never married, divorced, widowed);
level of education, the share of those with one or another educational qualification;
Social status and social composition - distribution of the population by income sources, social groups and subgroups;
Ethnic - the distribution of the population by nationality, as well as by native language, spoken language;
Economic - the distribution of the population on the employed by individual industries, engaged in mental and physical labor, unemployed, etc.
Of particular, basic importance are indicators of the age-sex structure involved in the enrichment of the cognitive potential of all other demostatic indicators. Different gender and age groups play different roles both in the reproduction of the population and in its functioning, including its economic, political and social activity.
Gender is a sign that remains unchanged throughout a person's life, while age inevitably and evenly increases.
Age is the period from the birth of a person to one or another counted event of his life. The extreme points on the line of a person's life are birth and death, and between them lies a sequence of demographic events.
Economic demographic indicators are especially important for characterizing the demographic subsystem of a municipality. The most important indicators of economic demography are indicators characterizing labor resources. First of all, the working-age population, the working-age population, dependents and the demographic burden on the able-bodied and working population.
Working-age population characterizes that part of the entire population that is within the age limits of labor activity established by law in a particular country. In our country, such age limits are defined: for men 16-59 years old, for women 16-54 years old.
Working-age population represents that part of the population of working age who, by their mental and physical qualities, has the ability to work.
Number and proportion of dependents characterizes the entire population unable to work due to age or health status.
Indicator of the demographic burden on the able-bodied population is determined by the ratio of able and incapable of working population and dependents.
From the ratio of the first and second indicators, an indicator of the state of health of the population of working age is formed.
A comparative analysis of these indicators in terms of the age and sex structure of the population and other characteristics of its demographic composition, supplemented by an analysis of the time series of based and derived purely demographic indicators, forms the demo-economic basis of many areas of economic policy and practice.
All these indicators have, as a rule, a quantitative expression, which are based on measurements of demographic phenomena and processes.
All demographic coefficients, regardless of their type, are the ratio of certain values to the size of the population or any part of it, to the size of a cohort, or to the total number of demographic events. They are calculated in order to make these values independent of the size of the population or other group taken as the basis of comparison, and thereby bring them to a comparable form.
According to the classification of indicators adopted in statistics, demographic coefficients are relative values and are calculated according to the rules adopted for them: in the case of comparing opposite values, it is necessary that they refer to the same period of time, to the population of the same territory, to the same and the same groups of the population, moreover, singled out on the same grounds. When data are obtained from different sources, it is important to compare not only in time and territory, but also in relation to the methodology for determining the category of population covered by each source, the content of the accepted groupings, etc.
The ways of expressing demographic coefficients differ depending on the possible range of values, each of them, on the required accuracy, logic of description and analysis. They are usually expressed in units, percentages (%) or ppm (‰), i.e. per thousand people (1 ppm equals 0.1 percent or 1% = 10)
Population figures.
Population- the indicator is momentary, that is, it always refers to the exact moment in time. Population loss is called depopulation.
Based on population data for a number of years, it is possible to calculate absolute growth, growth rates and average population.
Population S:
1) - data at the beginning and end of the year.
2)
at equal intervals (based on quarterly data) - this formula is the chronological average.
3) for unequal intervals - this is the weighted average formula.
Indicators of the natural movement of the population of the Russian Federation.
The natural movement of the population.
This is the change in population due to the processes of birth and death.
Natural increase: = P - Y,
Where P is the number of births; Y is the number of deaths.
The simplest indicators of the natural movement of the population - the general coefficients - are so called because when calculating the number of demographic events: births, deaths, etc., they are correlated with the total population.
Table 1 (see Appendix 1)
|
Index |
Calculation method (%) |
|
|
1. Total fertility rate (n) |
Number of live births (N) per 1000 people population on average per year (‰) |
|
|
2. Crude death rate (m) |
The number of deaths (M) per 1000 people. population on average per year (‰) |
|
|
3. Coefficient of natural increase (Kn-m) |
natural growth per 1000 people population on average per year |
|
|
4. Population turnover ratio (Kn+m) |
The number of births and deaths per 1000 people. population on average per year |
|
|
5. Coefficient of economy of reproduction (Ke) |
The share of natural increase in the total turnover of the population |
Ke \u003d (n - m) / (n + m) |
Total Fertility Rate:
,
Today, the main factor on which the demographic future of our country depends entirely is the birth rate.
Crude death rate:
General coefficient of natural increase:
The total vital rates are calculated with a standard accuracy of tenths of a per mille.
Indicators of mechanical movement. Migration.
Mechanical change - a change in the population due to the territorial movement of people, i.e. through migrations.
Migration is the mechanical movement of a population within a country or between countries.
P - B, where P - the number of arrivals in the given territory, B - the number of those who left the given territory.
Table 2 (see Appendix 2)
|
Index |
Calculation method |
|
|
1. Migration coefficient (Kv) |
Balance of migration per 1000 people i-th population groups on average per year, V+ - V- (V+ is the number of arrivals; V- is the number of departures) |
|
|
2. Arrival coefficient (Кv+) |
Number of arrivals per 1000 people population on average per year |
|
|
3. Retirement rate (Kv-) |
Number of dropouts per 1000 people population on average per year |
|
|
4. Coefficient of survival of new settlers (Kn) |
Specific gravity new settlers. remaining on permanent place residence in a given area (), in the total number of arrivals in a given area for the study period (year, two, three, etc.) (),% |
|
|
5. Coefficient of population mobility (Kn-1) |
The share of new settlers who did not take root () in the total number of those who arrived in this area,% |
Total population growth:
where is the natural population growth; - migratory (mechanical) population growth.
Mechanical gain coefficient:
where is the average annual population.
Overall growth rate:
Advantages of common coefficients:
1) eliminate differences in population sizes (since they are calculated per 1000 inhabitants) and allow comparing the levels of demographic processes of territories with different populations;
2) one number characterizes the state of a complex demographic phenomenon or process, i.e., they have a generalizing character;
3) for their calculation in official statistical publications almost always there are initial data;
4) are easily understood and often used in the media.
General coefficients have a drawback, stemming from their very nature, which consists in the non-uniform structure of their denominator. When using general coefficients to study the dynamics of demographic processes, it remains unknown - due to what factors the value of the coefficient has changed: either due to a change in the process under study, or due to the structure of the population.
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RUSSIAN UNIVERSITY OF FRIENDSHIP OF PEOPLES
Faculty: Economic
Direction: Economy
Department: Statistics and Finance
BACHELOR'S FINAL WORK
Topic: "Statistical analysis of the demographic situation in the Russian Federation"
Student: Oskanov Ruslan Sulambekovich
Group EE-402
Country Russia
Scientific adviser: academician of MAI
Professor Vishnyakov V.V.
Head department: academician of RADSI
Professor Sidenko A.V.
social statistics is one of the most important applications of the statistical method. It gives a quantitative description of the structure of society, the life and activities of people, their relationship with the state and law, allows you to identify and measure the main patterns in the behavior of people, in the distribution of benefits between them. Statistical analysis of phenomena and processes occurring in the social life of society is carried out using methods specific to statistics - methods of generalizing indicators that give a numerical measurement of the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of an object, the links between them, and the trends in their change. These indicators reflect the social life of the society, which is the subject of the study of social statistics.
Complex and multifaceted by its nature, the social life of society is a system of relations of different properties, different levels, different quality. As a system, these relationships are interconnected and interdependent. Among the most significant areas of research in social statistics are: social and demographic structure population and its dynamics , the standard of living of the population, the level of well-being, the level of health of the population, culture and education, moral statistics, public opinion, political life. For each area of research, a system of indicators is developed, sources of information are identified, and there are specific approaches to the use of statistical materials in order to regulate the social situation in the country and regions.
Unlike many other sciences demography has an exact date of birth. It dates back to January 1662, when a book by the English merchant and captain, self-taught scientist John Graunt (1620 - 1674) was published in London, which had a long title: “Natural and political observations listed in the attached table of contents and made on the basis of mortality bulletins. In relation to the government, religion, trade, growth, air, disease and other changes of the named city. Composition by John Graunt, Citizen of London. This book was the beginning of not one, but three sciences at once: statistics, sociology and demography.
The word "demography" is formed from two Greek words: "demos» - the people and "grapho"- writing. If we interpret this phrase literally, it will mean "people's description", or a description of the population.
In the twentieth century, the formation of demography as a science took place in two directions. On the one hand, its subject was gradually narrowed, more precisely, concretized, on the other hand, the range of factors affecting this subject, which demography included in the field of its consideration, expanded. By the mid 1960s. most specialists began to limit the subject of demography to questions vital movement . There are two types of movement: natural and mechanical (migration).
Vital movement of the population is a continuous change in the size and structure of the population as a result of births, deaths, marriages and divorces. The natural movement of the population also includes changes in the sex and age structure of the population due to the close relationship of its changes with all demographic processes.
In the first half of the 1990s, our country entered the stage of a demographic catastrophe. This catastrophe is expressed primarily in an unprecedentedly low birth rate (the level of which today is half that in the most difficult years of the Great Patriotic War), in a very high divorce rate (according to which the Russian Federation is now in second place after the United States), in a relatively low life expectancy of the population, especially male and rural. Since 1992, Russia's population has not been growing, but declining, and at a very rapid pace. Since 1992, it has decreased by almost 2 million people, or 1.3%. However, it should be taken into account that the population decline was to some extent compensated by the migration flow of the population from abroad. Due to the natural loss, i.e. the excess of the number of deaths over the number of births, the country actually decreased during this period by 4.2 million people.
The true purpose of research for any science is to reveal the laws (cause-and-effect relationships) of development in that area of being that constitutes its subject. In turn, the knowledge of the laws of development is unthinkable without the preliminary establishment of regularities, i.e. objectively existing, recurring, stable connections between phenomena, this development. In this way the subject of demography is the laws of natural reproduction of the population.
The population in demography is a set of people, self-reproducing in the process of generational change.
To identify true trends in demographic processes, it is necessary to assess the reliability of statistical information and select indicators suitable for each case. Various indicators, depending on individual properties, can characterize the direction and intensity of the same process in completely different ways. Equally important is the study of the factors of demographic processes. A factor is a statistically observable reflection of a cause.
Based on the study of trends in demographic processes and cause-and-effect relationships of demographic processes with other social processes, demographers develop forecasts of future changes in the size and structure of the population. On the demographic projections relies on planning National economy: production of goods and services, housing and public construction, labor resources, training of specialists, schools and preschool institutions, roads and means of transport, military conscription and so on.
On the basis of knowledge of the real tendencies of demographic processes, on the basis of formation and causal relationships with other social processes, on the basis of demographic forecasts and plans, the goals and measures of demographic and social policy are determined.
Demography in the study of its subject - the natural reproduction of the population uses various methods, the main of which can be combined according to their nature into three groups: statistical , mathematical and sociological . The objects of observation in demography are not individual people and events, but groups of people and events grouped according to certain rules, homogeneous in some respects. Such aggregates are called statistical facts. Demography seeks to establish and measure objectively existing relationships between statistical facts relevant to its subject, using methods also developed in statistics, for example, methods of correlation and factor analysis. Demography also uses other statistical methods, in particular, sampling and index methods, method of averages, alignment methods, tabular and others.
The processes of population reproduction are sometimes interconnected by simple, sometimes rather complex quantitative relationships, which leads to the use of many mathematical methods for measuring some demographic characteristics according to other characteristics. In demography, mathematical models of the population are widely used, with the help of which, on the basis of fragmentary and inaccurate data, one can obtain a fairly complete and fair presentation about the true state of population reproduction. The category of mathematical modeling in demography includes probability tables of mortality, as well as demographic forecasts, which are one of the types of mathematical modeling.
In the last quarter of a century (in our country, and in the West for more than half a century), demographics are increasingly using sociological methods studies of so-called demographic behavior, i.e. subjective attitudes, needs, opinions, plans, decision-making, actions in relation to the demographic aspects of the life of people, families, social groups.
Within the demographics, industries such as:
demographic statistics - the oldest branch of demography; its particular subject is the study of the statistical patterns of population reproduction. The task of demographic statistics includes the development of methods for statistical observation and measurement of demographic phenomena and processes, the collection and primary processing of statistical materials on the reproduction of the population. The next chapter of this course work describes the main demographic indicators and discusses in detail the methods of analysis of demographic phenomena with the help of general and special vital rates.
mathematical demography ; which develops and applies mathematical methods to study the relationship of demographic phenomena and processes, modeling and forecasting. Demographic models include probabilistic tables of mortality, marriage, fertility, stationary and stable population models, simulation models of demographic processes, etc.
historical demographics ; which studies the state and dynamics of demographic processes in the history of countries and peoples, as well as the history of the development of demographic science itself.
ethnic demographics ; explores the ethnic characteristics of the reproduction of the population. Ethnic features of the everyday way of life of peoples, customs, traditions, the structure of family relations have a significant impact on the birth rate, average life expectancy, and health status.
economic demographics ; explores the economic factors of population reproduction. Economic factors are understood as the totality economic conditions the life of society, and the impact on the topics of population growth, birth rates, death rates, marriage rates, etc.
sociological demography ; studies the influence of sociological socio-psychological factors on the volitional, subjective actions of people in demographic processes.
Demographic statistics(population statistics) - a part of demography, a science that collects, processes and analyzes information about the reproduction of the population.
The main sources of information in demography:
1 Regular censuses, usually every 10 years;
2 Current statistical records of demographic events (births, deaths, marriages, divorces) carried out continuously;
3 Current registers (lists, card indexes) of the population, also functioning continuously;
4 Sample and ad hoc surveys. For example, microcensuses conducted in the middle of the intercensal period. The first such work was carried out in 1985, the second - in February 1994.
1 Definition of a population census given by UN experts:
« Population census- is the general process of collecting, summarizing, evaluating, analyzing and publishing demographic, economic and social data on the entire population living at a certain point in time in a country or a clearly defined part of it.
Although it is traditionally called a population census (or demographic census), in fact, the census shows a number of population structures that go beyond the boundaries of the subject of demography (ethnic and social-class structure, distribution of the population by territory and migration, distribution of the population by sectors of the national economy and by occupation, unemployment, position in employment, etc.). For the census, a special unit is created in the bodies of state statistics. Its functions are the methodological and technical preparation of the census, the organization of its direct conduct, the processing of the results and their publication. In our country, such a unit is the board of censuses and surveys. State Committee Russian Federation on statistics.
The following questions are considered in population censuses:
The number and distribution of the population throughout the country, by urban and rural types of population, population migration;
Structure of the population by sex, age, marital status and marital status;
The structure of the population by nationality, native and spoken language, by citizenship;
Distribution of the population by level of education, by sources of livelihood, by branches of the national economy, by occupation and position in occupation;
The number and structure of families for a whole range of social characteristics;
fertility;
Housing conditions of the population.
To avoid omissions and double counting, censuses distinguish between categories of people, depending on the nature of their residence in a given territory, the actual and permanent population.
PN=NN+VO-VP
HH=MON+VP-VO
In the Russian Federation, the legal basis for conducting population censuses is government decrees, specially adopted on the proposal of the statistical authorities some time before each census, sometimes several years, sometimes months.
On December 28, 2001, the State Duma adopted a draft federal law"On the All-Russian Population Census". In 2002 the census in our country will be conducted from 9 to 16 October.
2Current record of vital events - births, deaths, marriages, divorces - is based on the registration of these events. When registering demographic events, records of acts of civil status in special books are made in two copies, one is stored in the archive, and the second is transferred to the statistical authorities for processing and summarizing the information contained in it. However, these data, even in summary form, do not characterize the intensity of demographic processes. The volume of demographic events depends on the population that produces these events. The aggregates of demographic processes must be compared with the population aggregates corresponding to them (the number of births - with the number of women of a certain age and marital status, the number of deaths - with the population of the corresponding sex, age, nationality, etc.). Censuses provide data on the size and composition of the population. That. The data of the current record of demographic events form an inseparable unity with the data of population censuses.
3Current registers (lists, file cabinets) of the population are maintained by various administrative state bodies. These card indexes are created to perform specific tasks and usually do not cover the entire population, but some of its groups (residents of microdistricts, categories subject to social care, etc.). All of these registers include the legal population, which may not be exactly the same as the actual population (current or permanent, as defined in the censuses). Therefore, population list data are of limited use.
4 Sample and special surveys allow, at a lower cost than censuses, to conduct a study of the problem of interest on a small, selected group of the population according to special rules in order to then disseminate the results to the entire population.
1.2.2. Key demographics
All indicators can be divided into two main types: absolute and relative. Absolute indicators (or values) are simply the sums of demographic events: (phenomena) at a point in time (or in a time interval, most often for a year). These include, for example, the population on a certain date, the number of births, deaths, etc. for a year, month, several years, etc. Absolute indicators are not informative in themselves, they are usually used in analytical work as initial data for calculating relative indicators . For comparative analysis, only relative indicators are used. They are called relative because they always represent a fraction, a ratio to the population that produces them.
Population figures.
The population is a momentary indicator, that is, it always refers to the exact moment in time. Population loss is called depopulation.
Based on population data for a number of years, it is possible to calculate absolute growth, growth rates and average population.
Population S:
1) - data at the beginning and end of the year. (one)
2) at equal intervals (based on quarterly data) - this formula is the chronological average. (2)
3) for unequal intervals - this is the weighted average formula. (3)
The natural movement of the population.
This is the change in population due to the processes of birth and death.
Natural increase: = P - Y, (4)
Where P is the number of births; Y is the number of deaths.
The simplest indicators of the natural movement of the population - general coefficients - are called so because when calculating the number of demographic events: births, deaths, etc. - they are correlated with the total population, see tab. one.
|
thousand |
2001 by 2000 |
Per 1000 population 1) |
||||
|
increase (+), decrease (-), thousand |
||||||
|
born |
||||||
|
including children |
||||||
|
natural growth |
||||||
|
Divorces |
||||||
|
____________________ 1) Here the indicators of monthly operational reporting are given in terms of the year. 2) Per 1000 births. |
||||||
Today, the main factor on which the demographic future of our country depends entirely is the birth rate.
Crude death rate:
The total vital rates are calculated with a standard accuracy of tenths of a per mille.
Indicators of mechanical movement. Migration
Migration- this is the mechanical movement of the population within the territory of the country or between countries, see Table 2.
P - B, where P - the number of arrivals in this territory, (8)
B is the number of those who left the given territory.
table 2
Migration flows
|
Reference 2000. |
||||||
|
number |
Number |
migra- |
number |
number |
migra- |
|
|
Migration |
||||||
|
including: |
||||||
|
within Russia |
||||||
|
international migration |
||||||
|
including: |
||||||
|
with participating States |
||||||
|
with countries outside the CIS and the Baltics |
||||||
Total population growth:
Where is the natural increase of the population; - migratory (mechanical) population growth.
Mechanical gain coefficient: (10)
where is the average annual population.
Overall growth rate: (11)
Advantages of common coefficients:
General coefficients have a drawback, stemming from their very nature, which consists in the non-uniform structure of their denominator. When using general coefficients to study the dynamics of demographic processes, it remains unknown - due to what factors the value of the coefficient has changed: either due to a change in the process under study, or due to the structure of the population.
More precise special coefficients are considered in this work below, in a separate chapter.
Estimated at the beginning of 2002. The permanent population of the Russian Federation totaled 144,924.9 thousand people, and at the end of 2002 - 144,184.8 thousand people. Number of births P=1259.4 thousand Number of deaths Y=2217.1 thousand
Calculate the average annual population for 2003:
Thousand human
Total Fertility Rate:
Crude death rate:
General coefficient of natural increase:
Total growth for 2000:
145184.8-145924.9 = -740.1 thousand people (15)
natural increase:
1259.4-2217.1= -957.7 thousand people (16)
Migration growth:
=(-)740.1-(-)957.7=217.6 thousand people (17)
conclusions : The population in the Russian Federation in 2002 decreased in relative terms by 6.5%o due to negative natural growth, but increased by 1.5%o due to positive migration (mechanical) growth. As a result of the opposite impact on the total population growth of differently directed natural and migration increases, the total population growth in Russia in 2002 amounted to a negative value of 5.1%o. According to the obtained coefficients of natural movement, it is impossible to catch a change in trends, identify stable characteristics of the dynamics and choose a forecast period, since all indicators must be considered in dynamics over a long period of time.
In addition to general indicators for characterizing the natural movement of the population, there are partial coefficients that reflect internal processes, birth, death.
Birth rate in demography is a central issue.
Fertility indicators:
There is a relationship between special and general coefficients, which can be expressed as follows:
Where W is the proportion of women aged 15 to 49 of the total population. (21)
The lack of a special coefficient depending on its value on the characteristics of the age structure. True, already from the characteristics of the age structure within the female contingent (from 15 to 50 years), and not the entire population.
2. Age-specific fertility rates.
The age coefficient is the ratio of the annual number of births to mothers of age "x" to the number of all women of this age:
Age coefficients are calculated for one-year and five-year age groups. The most detailed - one-year age coefficients provide the best opportunities for analyzing the state and dynamics of fertility.
3. Total fertility rate.
The total fertility rate is a summary, final indicator. It shows how many children, on average, one woman gives birth to in her life from 15 to 50 years, provided that throughout the reproductive period of the life of a given generation, age-specific fertility rates in each age group remain unchanged at the level of the billing period.
where n- the length of the age interval (with the same length of the interval).
Advantages of this indicator:
Mortality rates:
1. Age-specific mortality rates.
The rates are calculated separately for males and females and are the best for analyzing the status and trends of mortality rates. They are calculated for one-year and five-year age groups.
where is the age-specific mortality rate; - the number of deaths at the age of "x" in the calendar period (per year); - population at the age of "x" in the middle of the calculation period (annual average).
2. Child mortality rate (under 1 year):
where - the number of children who died before the year, - the average number of children born in this year. (24)
3. Child mortality rate:
where is the number of children who died before 1 year of age per birth in this year; R - the number of births in this and last year. (25)
This coefficient reflects the health of the nation, the state of medicine.
Where t is the period. (26)
Calculation of the prospective population.
The simplest way is:
Where K = const. (27)
Calculation of the population based on the predicted population time series: if there is a clear trend, then it can be extended into the future:
Population calculation based on mortality table.
The mortality table is a system of interrelated indicators based on the probability of surviving to the next year for each age group. Survival rates require a large amount of statistical information.
The probability of surviving to age "x + 1" for those who survived to age "x" is defined as the ratio of the number of people surviving to age "x + 1" to the number of surviving to age "x":
For each generation, a different coefficient is calculated.
Number calculations in this case are carried out separately for each generation. The total population in a given year is equal to the sum of the populations of all generations living in that year.
Method in the most general sense means a way to achieve the goal, regulation of activity. The method of concrete science is a set of methods of theoretical and practical knowledge of reality. For an independent science, it is necessary not only to have a subject of study that is special from other sciences, but also to have its own methods for studying this subject. The totality of research methods used in any science is methodology this science.
Since population statistics is sectoral statistics, the basis of its methodology is statistical methodology.
The most important method included in the statistical methodology is obtaining information about the processes and phenomena being studied - statistical observation . It serves as the basis for data collection both in current statistics and in censuses, monographic and sample studies of the population. Here, the full use of the provisions of theoretical statistics on the establishment of the object of the unit of observation, the introduction of concepts of the date and moment of registration, the program, organizational issues of observation, systematization and publication of its results. Statistical methodology also contains the principle of independent assignment of each enumerated person to a certain group - the principle of self-determination.
The next stage in the statistical study of socio-economic phenomena is the determination of their structure, i.e. selection of parts and elements that make up the totality. We are talking about the method of groupings and classifications, which in population statistics are called typological and structural.
To understand the structure of the population, it is necessary, first of all, to identify the sign of grouping and classification. Any feature that has been observed can also serve as a grouping feature. For example, on the question of the attitude towards the person recorded first in the census form, one can determine the structure of the population being enumerated, where it seems likely to distinguish a significant number of groups. This attribute is attributive, therefore, when developing census questionnaires on it, it is necessary to compile in advance a list of classifications (groupings according to attribute characteristics) needed for analysis. When compiling classifications with a large number of attribute records, the assignment to certain groups is justified in advance. So, according to their occupation, the population is divided into several thousand species, which statistics reduce to certain classes, which is recorded in the so-called dictionary of occupations.
When studying the structure by quantitative characteristics, it becomes possible to use such statistical generalizing indicators as the mean, mode and median, distance measures or variation indicators to characterize different parameters of the population. The considered structures of phenomena serve as the basis for studying the connection in them. In the theory of statistics, functional and statistical relationships are distinguished. The study of the latter is impossible without dividing the population into groups and then comparing the value of the effective feature.
Grouping according to a factor attribute and comparing it with changes in the attribute of an effective one allows you to establish the direction of the relationship: it is direct or reverse, as well as to give an idea of its form. broken regression . These groupings make it possible to construct a system of equations necessary to find regression equation parameters and determining the tightness of the connection by calculating the correlation coefficients. Groupings and classifications serve as the basis for using dispersion analysis of relationships between indicators of population movement and the factors that cause them.
Statistical methods are widely used in the study of the population. dynamics research , graphic study of phenomena , index , selective and balance . We can say that population statistics uses the entire arsenal of statistical methods and examples to study its object. In addition, methods developed only for the study of the population are used. These are the methods real generation (cohorts) and conditional generation . The first allows us to consider changes in the natural movement of peers (born in the same year) - a longitudinal analysis; the second considers the natural movement of peers (living at the same time) - a cross-sectional analysis.
It is interesting to use averages and indices when taking into account the characteristics and comparing the processes occurring in the population, when the conditions for comparing data are not equal to each other. Using different weightings when calculating generalizing averages, a standardization method has been developed that allows eliminating the influence of different age characteristics of the population.
Probability theory, as a mathematical science, studies the properties of the objective world with the help of abstractions , the essence of which consists in a complete abstraction from qualitative certainty and in highlighting their quantitative side. Abstraction is the process of mental abstraction from many aspects of the properties of objects and at the same time the process of isolating, isolating any aspects of interest to us, properties and relations of the objects under study. The use of abstract mathematical methods in population statistics makes it possible statistical modeling processes occurring in the population. The need for modeling arises when it is impossible to study the object itself.
The largest number of models used in population statistics has been developed to characterize its dynamics. Among them stand out exponential and logistics. Of particular importance in the population forecast for future periods are models stationary and stable population, which determine the type of population that has developed under these conditions.
If the construction of exponential and logistic models of the population uses data on the dynamics of the absolute population for the past period, then the models of the stationary and stable population are built on the basis of the characteristics of the intensity of its development.
So, the statistical methodology for studying the population has at its disposal a number of methods of the general theory of statistics, mathematical methods and special methods developed in the population statistics themselves.
Population statistics, using the methods discussed above, develops a system of generalizing indicators, indicates the necessary information, methods for calculating them, the cognitive capabilities of these indicators, the conditions for use, the order of recording and meaningful interpretation.
Emigration from Russia, the right to freely leave and return its citizens, the ability to change the country of residence and work within the framework of the law is a new phenomenon in a country where for several centuries the annexation of any territory has always been accompanied by attempts by the state to control the possibility of movement of people not only to another country, but also within its borders. emergence legal basis emigration at the post-Soviet stage is evidence of profound qualitative changes.
In recent years, the scale of emigration from Russia has not been too great. Nevertheless, its significance seems to be quite large, primarily in connection with the possibility and necessity of considering it as the most important and still insufficiently assessed indicator of the state of society, mass moods, and the state of individual groups. Emigration can be seen as an indicator of deep, often hidden processes. Using emigration as an indicator requires studying it against a broad background of societal dynamics.
“No country has experienced so many waves of political emigration in the last century. Neither Germany, nor Argentina, nor Italy, nor Ireland... Only Russia. Her emigration was the most massive and the most terrible.”
At the end of the golden 19th century (although people realized what was golden only in the 30s of the next century), Russia did not know emigration at all as a phenomenon that to a large extent shapes the life of the Russian nation. It's not that there was no emigration at all, but (by analogy with "background inflation", "background radiation") it was purely background. The gentlemen went to Paris, and many stayed there for a long time; Jews (Pale of Settlement) and Ukrainians (agrarian overpopulation) emigrated from Southwestern Russia to America, with the active help of c. L.N. Tolstoy, the Doukhobor sectarians left for America by a whole big steamer; finally sat in Geneva
social democrat G.V. Plekhanov. But although departures and departures were observed, unlike in subsequent epochs, no one - either leaving or remaining - was considered either as a cleansing of Russia from an alien element, or as a bleeding of Russia, parting with the best and most active hands and heads; they were not considered at all. Even when the turmoil of 1905 sharply increased the outflow of Russian subjects from the borders of the empire (Jews fleeing pogroms and "kosnetutsii" - see Sholom Aleichem, revolutionaries and near-revolutionary intelligentsia - from the Bolshevik V. I. Ulyanov to the decadent poet K. D . Balmont), all the same, the borders remained so permeable, and the Russian giant was so self-sufficient that, as there was background emigration, it remained.
Real waves - not even waves, but the ninth waves of emigration were ahead.
The prologue to the tragedy of the Russian emigration of the 20th century was the arrival from emigration of V. I. Ulyanov-Lenin in April 1917. Less than a year later, the flow of refugees from Russia began to grow rapidly, reaching a peak in 1920 - with the final evacuation of parts of the Volunteer Army. By inertia, flight and non-returning added new human destinies to the emigration flow until about 1927, after which the borders of the USSR began to rapidly lose any kind of permeability. Who did not have time, he was late. This explains the phenomenon of the subsequent offensive of socialism along the entire front. And the gravest, unheard of disasters experienced by the country in 1929-1933, and the subsequent great terror did not cause any emigration wave (the number of defectors of that time, more and more residents of the NKVD abroad, can be counted on the fingers), because the Soviet government prudently took away from the subjects even the last opportunity to save freedom and life itself is the opportunity to escape in whatever is and where one's eyes look.
The cocked spring straightened out during the war years, giving rise to the flow of the Second Emigration. And mass surrender, and unheard of in recent history mass (up to 300 thousand people) participation in the anti-Soviet formations of the Wehrmacht, i.e. the war against their own country on the side of the worst enemy of this country, and the mass exodus of the population (North Caucasus, Ukraine), together with the retreating German, all this was purely emigration in essence by its phenomenon, its readiness to run to hell, to the devil, just to get away from the native Soviet power. The gate, which slammed shut completely and, as it seemed, forever, in 1927, during the war years, was not exactly thrown open again, it was just that the fence itself was broken, because that's what the war is for, to destroy the familiar concept of the state border. Future displaced persons rushed chaotically into this gap in the fence. They poured in without long calculation and reflection, driven only by two desperate thoughts "Now or never" and "Though more, that more." So, to the one and a half million Russians from the First, White, emigration, a couple of million more refugees were added - no longer from the young, as in 1918-1922, but from the completely mature Soviet government. Then, in 1945, the fence was patched up again and strengthened stronger than ever. It would seem like forever.
Strange, but the more the socialist fatherland strove to teach the two hopeless words "forever" and "never", the more often history sneered at the menacing sound of these words. In the early 70s, a gate appeared again in a blank wall. This time, Jewish under the sauce of family reunification became possible, not always smooth and not always guaranteed, but still leaving the country. If it was only about Jewish emigration, this wave would hardly have been called the Third. Around the same years, the Jewish population was finally squeezed out of Poland by the Polish authorities. The departure of the Jews was directly encouraged, but the Poles did not at all perceive this as a powerful emigration wave that radically changed the life of the country. The inhabitants of the USSR accepted, because in essence emigration was not so much national (i.e. Jewish) as class (i.e. intellectual), and to a large extent people were driven not so much by the desire to reunite with relatives (mostly mythical) or craving for the warmth of the Jewish national home (the lion's share of emigrants stuck in Vienna or Rome, waiting for a residence permit in the Western countries proper and not really striving for the home), how much longing for free air.
It is difficult to say whether they should be blamed for that. The prospects for the Soviet system even in 1988-1989 were not clear to anyone, the system always had a rather bad reputation, and not to say that Gorbachev greatly improved it in the eyes of fellow citizens, there was nowhere for the traditions of conscious citizenship to come from (even now, after ten years of life without communists, they are barely making their way), what to take from people who reasoned that we live once and do not want to spend the rest of the days in the same disgusting Soviet barracks.
So the Third emigration under Gorbachev began to smoothly flow into the Fourth, which is also sausage. Sausage because under the late Gorbachev, especially under Yeltsin, both breathing and consciousness became possible, and the borders became steadily permeable. The main motive of the previous three emigrations to escape from the plague-ridden country for the sake of preserving freedom (or even just life) and to do it now and quickly, until the gate slammed shut again, ceased to work. You can breathe, think and talk, but if problems with the gate arise (and the farther, the more), it is not on the domestic side of the border crossing, but on the completely opposite side. Back in the mid-seventies, departure for emigration was accurately described in poetic lines: "The airfield is like a crematorium, the dead man is alive and writhing, moreover." In our difficult time, God have mercy, what kind of dead man? which crematorium? read these lines now, they won’t even understand what it is about. Everyone has already quickly forgotten what it means to say goodbye to eternal separation.
A serf who has received his freedom has no need to gain freedom by running away from a cruel landowner. It's another thing to get a sausage, a green card, a place in a Western university, a job in a computer company, belonging to an international bohemian. An undeveloped Russia cannot satisfy these needs, and this will continue for more than one year. Getting up from your knees after seventy years of hard times does not happen quickly.
There is indeed a place for sausage, but a decisive shift in emphasis from salvation to sausage-eating, or, to put it more elegantly, from political to economic motives, significantly changes both the self-awareness of the current emigration and its relationship with the metropolis.
The first, White, emigration had the greatest right both to honor and to the motto "We are not in exile, we are in a message." First of all, had
because, apart from the mass of peaceful inhabitants pushed into a foreign land by revolutionary chaos, and apart from those who, like Milyukov, Kerensky and other representatives of the "progressive public", have been preparing for many years for themselves and for others the replacement of rich and divided Russia with an emigrant Parisian attic ( revered for the highest happiness), there were also third. There were Drozdovites, Markovites and Kornilovites, there were those who fought to the end for their Russia and were forced to leave it only under the onslaught of the invincible forces of the enemy. If it weren’t for this hopeless resistance to Bolshevism that saved Russian honor, it would be impossible to talk about any mission of white emigrants. All the spiritual and cultural service of the White emigration, which actually saved the fragments of the great Russian heritage in part for the future Russia, in part for history, would be internally impossible if it did not have an excuse before history in the person of those very staff captains who fought for Russia.
The second emigration in the sense of service and message was distinguished by maximum wordlessness, for it consisted more and more of people
simple and unlearned, and the stigma of Nazi accomplices was doomed to wear forever, and this, perhaps, the most important knowledge that she took out of Russia was so terrible and tragic that it was indescribable. How much do we know about the spiritual mission of the survivors of Auschwitz? There was no mission, but there was a severe mental trauma for the rest of my life and a desire to forget everything and never remember.
The third emigration, if not entirely, then at least partially, could express its self-consciousness with the words "I chose freedom", that is, something that was definitely absent in the USSR. The readiness to die forever for the former country and for the former life for the sake of realizing some spiritual potential (another matter, how it was then practically realized, emigre life, by definition, suffers from pettiness and squalor) is a respectable impulse. There is at least a subject for conversation.
Worst of all in this sense is the last, Fourth, emigration. Replacing ideal motivations with practically sausage ones
gave rise to a number of new problems. I had to face the fact that the very concept of the quality of life is by no means exhausted by its material component. As soon as a certain, not very high limit of satisfaction of needs is surpassed, the question immediately arises not of absolute goods (car, apartment, bank account, annual salary, all the same sausage), but of relative goods - of the degree of integration into the new society and into a new environment and about the place occupied in this new human hierarchy. And here it turns out that unfortunate thing that, significantly (and sometimes even insignificantly) surpassing in the level and quality of consumption, i.e.
As if having greatly overtaken his former compatriots in social status, the emigrant of the last wave at the same time finds himself at the very bottom of the status ladder when it comes to comparing him with his new compatriots Americans, Germans, etc. but to live with them, not with the Russians.
Such a defeat in status, of course, was also among the former emigrants, but they had a compensatory mechanism working - "We are not in exile, we are in a message" (the First and partly the Third wave), "Thank God that they are generally alive and that they are not under the Soviets "(Second). The fourth wave does not have this compensation, and since the need for consolation remains, the former compatriots of the last wave are forced to resort to the most unsuccessful form of compensation - the devilization of the former fatherland. In Russia, everything must be terrible, nowhere more terrible - because only in this way does the decision to part with their native country receive a clear and convincing justification.
At the end of August 1998, when the ruble went crazy, and with it the Russians, citizens reacted to the crisis in different ways. Who frantically
walked ("the last days at Kolchak's headquarters"), who was in a stupor, who cursed fate, who tried in vain to save the rest of the money. But there were people in those days who finally experienced the bright Paschal joy. Never before and never after have so many jubilant (sometimes even poetic, that's what joy does to a person) messages from former compatriots appear on the Russian Internet.
In that black August short time it turned out (or it seemed) that all emigre humiliations were now justified, that the decision to leave Russia turned out to be the right one, that the former compatriots who remained there were fools, and we were smart. For greater persuasiveness, the last thought was accompanied by specific references to the level of annual income ($60,000 and above, and a story about the number of cars).
Russia has never been a country of mass emigration; in the history of the Russian Empire, internal colonization, resettlement to free lands within the country, played a much greater role. Nevertheless, it cannot be said that the history of Russia did not know emigration at all, Russia participated in the great intercontinental migrations of the end of the past - the beginning of this century. From 1861 to 1915, 4.3 million people left the Russian Empire, including almost 2.6 million in the first 15 years of the 20th century. Two-thirds
emigrants were sent to the United States, and of those who left in the twentieth century - about 80%. True, most of the emigrants did not leave Russia within its current borders, but from other parts of the former empire - Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic provinces.
Emigration from the USSR was far from negligible. It breaks up into three main streams, usually called the "first", "second" and "third" emigration. All three streams were driven primarily by political reasons. The "first" and "second" streams are mainly forced "waves" of emigration during the First World War, the Civil War and the Second World War, the "third" stream is voluntary, predominantly "ethnic" emigration during the Cold War. Of course, such a division is arbitrary, emigration flows, now weakening, now intensifying, almost never dried up. We are talking, in essence, about the three peaks of emigration, see Table 8
The third - for the first time relatively voluntary - emigration was in every possible way limited by the authorities and was significantly inferior in scale to the first two. When the artificial restrictions disappeared, the scale of the flow, its composition, the purposes of emigration and the conditions in which it proceeds, became so different that there is every reason to speak of a new, "fourth" wave of emigration. It is increasingly characterized by features that are typical of emigration from many countries in our time, and is predetermined not by political, as before, but by economic factors that push people to go to other countries in search of higher earnings, prestigious work, a different quality of life, etc. . Emigrants of the "fourth wave" leave, of course, not only from Russia, but also from other former republics
The USSR, nevertheless, Russia has a very prominent place in this emigration.
After the major migration movements caused by the Second World War ended, the flow of emigration from the USSR almost completely disappeared. In the 70s, the size of net emigration (i.e., emigration minus immigration) ranged from 10-15 thousand people, only in some years rising to 30-40 thousand, despite the fact that both the number of emigrants and the number of immigrants was small . In the first half of the 1980s, emigration was even less. Only after 1986 did the first signs of an increase in the flow of emigrants appear, which increased rapidly in subsequent years. Since 1989, as an exception, the emigration of Germans, Vrei, Greeks was allowed, and in 1993 a law was enacted on freedom of entry and exit for all citizens of Russia.
In the early 1990s, both in the USSR (including Russia) and in the West, there was an opinion that the opening of borders would cause a huge surge in emigration. According to the All-Union Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM), which conducted a survey in 1990 "Attitude of the population of the USSR to work abroad", 1.5-2 million people were ready to leave the former USSR for labor reasons, and another 5-6 million considered this possibility. When interviewing experts - representatives of the apparatus government controlled, Science and Business, conducted in 1991 by the Center for Human Demography and Ecology, half of the experts said that in the next 5 years from 2 to 4 million people could be expected to leave the country, and another 30% estimated the possible scale of departure at 4-5 million people.
Western experts were also alarmed by the threat of mass emigration from the newly independent states, including Russia.
Their estimates of possible emigration from the former USSR sometimes reached 20 million people.
However, even then it was clear to many specialists that the danger of a "ninth wave" of emigration from the post-Soviet space was being exaggerated. "The danger of multi-million emigration from the former USSR is unlikely. There are quite serious limiting factors - both in the country (countries) of emigration and in countries of immigration, they will undoubtedly have a limiting effect on the formation of emigration flows."
Indeed, contrary to expectations, there has not been a sharp increase in emigration from Russia outside the former USSR. Since 1990, reported emigration has remained roughly at the same level, ranging from a maximum of 114,000 in 1993 to a minimum of 78,000 in 2002. In 1999, apparently due to the financial crisis of August 1998, emigration increased markedly - up to 108 thousand people, but did not go beyond the usual fluctuations, and in 2002 again fell even below the 1998 level. In general, over the twelve years - from 1990 to 2002 - about 1.1 million people left Russia, but not 2, much less 4 or 5 million, which some experts spoke about in the early 90s, predicting the scale of emigration of all five years ahead.
But, of course, even a million emigrants is a lot, especially if we take into account the general demographic situation in the country, the negative natural population growth and the decline in its numbers.
In addition, it should be borne in mind that the data provided may not be complete. As follows from the table, there are now two different official estimates of the number of those who left - the estimate of the State Statistics Committee of Russia and the estimate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. So far, we have been talking about a slightly higher assessment of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. But even it does not take into account those who left the country without obtaining an official permit for permanent residence, for example, those who left for study, on a tourist trip, on a business trip and did not return, and there are undoubtedly such people.
Table 4
Still, it is unlikely that under conditions of free exit from the country the number of unaccounted for emigrants would be too large.
Refinements are possible, but the order of magnitude, apparently, is still not distorted by official figures.
All the inhabitants of Russia are gradually involved in emigration. If in 1992 Moscow and St. Petersburg sharply prevailed, giving about 40% of emigrants, then in 1997 their share fell to 18%, in 1998 - to 12.2%, in 1999 - to 10.6%. The share of Muscovites and Petersburgers in the flow directed to the USA is also decreasing: in 1995 they accounted for half, in 1996 - 44%, in 1997 - 39%, in 2000 - 29%, in 2002 - only 9.4%.
The ratio of men and women among emigrants is more balanced than in the entire population of Russia (in 2002, the proportion of women among emigrants was 51.6%, in the population - 53.1%). The age structure of emigrants, in comparison with the population of Russia, is shifted towards younger ages - mainly due to a larger share of the able-bodied age group (64.3% among emigrants and 58.5% in the population, 2002) and one and a half times smaller pension group (13.3% and 20.8%), while the proportion of the children's group (0-15 years) differs little (22.4% and 20.7%).
Emigration from Russia bears clear features of a brain drain. Every fifth emigrant had a higher education, including among those who left for Israel - 30%, in the USA - more than 40% (in the country's population - 13.3%). Many students and trainees studying in the West become emigrants.
Only 13% of all Russians have higher and incomplete higher education; among emigrants, more than 20% had it. This
the disproportion is further increased when considering the educational characteristics of emigrants to individual countries. Among
Russian citizens 60% of those who left for Australia had higher and incomplete higher education, 59% for Canada, 48% for the USA and 32.5% for Israel. In the total number of those who left for Germany and Israel, 79.3% were people employed in science and public education. At the same time, 40.5% of immigrants who arrived in Israel from the former USSR general term education is 13 years or more (only 24.2% of local residents have a similar educational level). It is also known that as of January 1, 1996, 110,000 scientists, not counting engineers, emigrated to Israel from Russia and other states - the heirs of the Soviet Union. All this suggests that some (and, apparently, a considerable) share of irrevocable migration can be qualified as a typical "brain drain".
The determination of the scale of intellectual emigration, based only on the data of the UVIR of the Ministry of Internal Affairs ..., gives a picture of a very
very truncated. The fact is that leaving with the wording "for permanent residence" can in no way be considered predominant. A survey of 16 research institutes of the Russian Academy of Sciences, conducted in the mid-90s, found that the departure of scientists on temporary contracts is much more common. So, from the Institute of Chemical Physics. N. N. Semenov in two years under contracts left 172 scientists, for permanent residence - not a single one, from the Physico-Technical Institute. A.F. Ioffe - 83 and 15 people, respectively.
People who already belong to the scientific elite, as well as young researchers who are going to improve their scientific qualifications, leave, including irrevocably, mostly with temporary contracts in their hands. The total departure under such contracts for internship and study exceeds the departure for permanent residence by 3-5 times. If the Russian scientific diaspora permanently residing abroad numbers about 30,000 people, then the number of "contract workers" is four times higher - at least 120,000.
A special problem is the outflow of highly qualified specialists from the field of R&D of the military-industrial complex, from closed cities ... There are no exact data on this contingent, according to preliminary estimates, since the beginning of the 90s, about 70 thousand employees of our defense institutions and enterprises have dispersed around the world
According to UNESCO, in the mid-1990s, the approximate total number of Russians studying at foreign universities was about 13,000 people. About 40% of them studied in the USA, another 40% - in Germany, France and the UK. The number of Russian students in the United States is growing all the time: in the 1997/1998 academic year there were 1582, in 1999/2000 - 5589, in 2000/2001 - 6900.
The basis of the “fourth emigration” from the very beginning was made up of several ethnic minorities, and this feature of it is still preserved, but gradually the role of these minorities is falling and the ethnic structure of emigration is normalizing. In 1993-1995, more than half of the flow was Germans and 13-15% - Jews. By 1999, the proportion of Germans had fallen to one third, so that together with Jews they now make up less than half of the emigrants. Emigration of Russians, on the contrary, is growing: compared with 1993, it has increased one and a half times - from 21.3 to 34.5 thousand people (according to the State Statistics Committee). In 1993, there were 3 times fewer Russian emigrants than the total number of Germans and Jews; in 1997, the departure of Russians equaled the departure of Germans, and then surpassed it. In 1999-2000 Russian
accounted for more than 40% of emigration, significantly surpassing the Germans and many times - the Jews, including 2 times - in the Israeli stream.
Table 5
According to the State Statistics Committee, which is somewhat lower than the data of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, since the surge in emigration that began in 1987, more than half of those who left went to Germany, over a quarter to Israel, a little more than 10% to the United States, more than three percent to Greece , Canada and Finland and another three percent - to all other countries, see Table 6.
Table 6
Distribution of those who emigrated from Russia outside the former USSR by countries of destination, 1991-2002, (according to the State Statistics Committee)
Table 7
Distribution of those who emigrated from Russia outside the former USSR by countries of destination, 1994-2002, thousand people (according to
The direction of emigration is affected by the weakening of its ethnic character and the increase in the share of Russians in the flow. The geography of Russian emigration is very wide, they master literally the whole world: in 2002, 52% of Russians went to Germany, 21.8% to Israel, 12% to the USA, 2.6% to Canada, 2.1% to Finland, etc. News recent years- Reducing the number of Russians leaving for the USA. In 1998, 4418 Russians received permission to travel to the United States, in 2000 - 3490, in 2002 - 3118.
When studying the history of Russian international migration, researchers often rely on foreign statistical sources.
Thus, on their basis, estimates were made of the volume of the emigration flow from the Russian Empire to North America, white emigration during the civil war and revolution, and the emigration of Soviet citizens to the West after World War II.
Foreign sources sometimes turn out to be no less, and sometimes even more significant than national ones. Apparently, they should not be neglected when studying the current emigration of Russians. The official statistics of those states where emigrants from Russia enter, undoubtedly, can replenish our knowledge about the process of emigration, which is far from always transparent and difficult to account for.
Since the late 1980s, after the opening of the state borders of the USSR, migration ties between the former Soviet republics and other
states have expanded significantly. In particular, the number of emigrants from Russia in 1990 exceeded the number of emigrants in 1986 by more than 36 times. In subsequent years, the emigration flow from the country stabilized at the level of 100 ± 15 thousand people. In total, in 1989-2002, according to Russian data, 1,046,000 people left the country for permanent residence
In the "Demographic Yearbook of Russia" and other official publications, information on migration between the Russian Federation and countries outside the CIS and the Baltics is given according to the data of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. The number of emigrants, or those who left Russia, is defined as the number of persons (including foreigners and stateless persons permanently residing in Russia) who received permission to leave the country for permanent residence abroad. In published materials for 1987-2002, those who subsequently refused to leave are excluded from those who received permission to leave.
It should also be taken into account that the Russian definition of international migration covers only that part of long-term
international movements, which is associated with a change of permanent residence. Simply put, those who declare that they are leaving Russia forever or are coming to Russia are included in the number of emigrants or immigrants. A Russian citizen who travels under a contract to work or study in non-CIS countries for a period of more than 1 year, as a rule, does not fall into the number of emigrants recorded by Russian statistics.
In addition to the MIA data, there are also emigration estimates made by the Goskomstat of the Russian Federation. They are based on
data on deregistration of emigrants at the place of residence. Estimates of the emigration outflow by the State Statistics Committee turn out to be less than
estimates of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (in some years - by almost 25%).
According to Russian data, in the late 1990s, almost 97% of the emigration outflow from Russia went to 5 countries: Germany, Israel, Canada, the USA and Finland. Invoking the data of the current accounting of international migration of these countries, comparing them with
Russian data, one can try to correct the estimate of the number of those emigrants from the Russian Federation who went abroad for permanent residence (permanent residence) or at least for a long time.
It is clear that emigrants from Russia are treated as immigrants in other countries. In Germany, Canada, the USA and Finland, the registration of immigrants from the Russian Federation began immediately after the collapse of the USSR - in 1992. In Israeli statistical publications, the distribution of immigrants from the USSR in the former Soviet republics begins in 1990.
In the immigration statistics of Germany, Israel, Canada, the USA, Finland and other Western countries, a group of immigrants from the former USSR is distinguished, who indicate the USSR as their last place of residence or place of birth, and not some former Soviet republic. The share of such undistributed migrants was especially significant in the first half of the 1990s, and then, as the quality of accounting improved and the composition of migrants changed, it gradually decreased. Thus, in Canadian data for 1992, the share of immigrants not distributed among the Union republics was 82% of the total number of immigrants from the USSR, and in 1998 - only 12%. This circumstance prompts us to use not only explicit estimates of Russian immigration from national statistical publications, but also adjusted estimates taking into account non-distributed immigrants from the former USSR, in a comparative analysis of statistical data. Both explicit and adjusted foreign estimates of the number of immigrants from Russia to the respective countries are given.
Comparison of Russian estimates of emigration for permanent residence to Germany, Israel, Canada, the USA and Finland with estimates of immigration flows to these states from Russia, performed by the statistical services of these states. This comparison suggests that the emigration outflow from Russia was at least 1.2 times higher than that registered in Russia. Russian data differ most strongly from Canadian and Finnish ones.
countries - their estimates are always higher than Russian ones - quite reliably indicates that the emigration outflow in Russia
underestimated.
The reasons for this underestimation require detailed study. Without this, it is impossible to establish a system of reliable registration of immigration and emigration in the country. The main of these reasons, in our opinion, lies in the fact that today the importance of such a source of data as the recording of exit permits has decreased. A person who is about to leave for another country for several years or even for permanent residence may well do without such permission. Many people simply do not need it: it allows them to keep housing in Russia, often a place of work or study, and ultimately protect themselves from possible risks associated with immigration.
The topic of immigration is one of the most pressing for Germany, because, according to German statistics, on January 1, 2002, there were 7.3 million foreigners in the country. Almost every 11th inhabitant of Germany is a foreigner. The German government pursues an active migration policy and at the same time develops effective programs aimed at the economic and cultural adaptation of immigrants and especially their children.
Definitions of international migrants in Germany differ from those recommended by the UN. Foreign citizens are considered immigrants if they have received a residence permit and intend to stay in Germany for at least 3 months or more.
Another category of immigrants is represented by German citizens and persons of German origin (Aussiedler), who return to their historical homeland and almost automatically become German citizens. It should be noted that the development of data on most of the socio-demographic characteristics of immigrants is carried out only by Aussiedler. Emigrants include all those who left Germany, regardless of their citizenship, for a period of 3 months or more.
Thus, it is possible to compare German and Russian data based on some significant assumptions. German statistics include both short-term and long-term movements in their estimates of immigration flows. Because of this, in particular, the differences between Russian and German data reach significant values. At the same time, the immigration of people of German origin in Germany is considered as a long-term migration. If we agree with this point of view, then at this point the Russian data become comparable with the German estimates. It can also be assumed that the net migration reflects the magnitude of long-term migration to Germany, since those who came to short term- less than one year, - must
were to return to Russia.
Immigration from the Russian Federation and the former USSR plays a significant role in the life of modern Germany. According to German data, more than 2.2 million people arrived in Germany from the former Soviet republics in 1990-2001, which accounted for 21.5% of the total number of arrivals in the country during the specified period. More than 1.5 million immigrants were people of German origin, 675 thousand - foreigners. Immigrants from the former USSR come mainly from Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. They account for 42.6% and 36.6%, respectively, of all arrivals in Germany from the former Soviet republics, 53.4% and 36.9% of Aussiedler arrivals, 21.7% and 36.1% of foreign immigrants.
Between 1992 and 2002, between 590,000 (according to published estimates) and 674,000 people arrived directly from Russia to Germany (including "immigrants from the former USSR"). Of these, persons of German origin ranged from 392 to 458 thousand, foreigners (primarily Russian citizens) - from 198 to 218 thousand people. The maximum influx of immigrants from Russia - more than 100 thousand people - was observed in 1994 and 1995
According to Russian data, 450.5 thousand people emigrated to Germany in 1992-2002. The emigration outflow peaked in 1995. This year, the immigration influx of people of German origin to Germany reached its maximum value, both according to Russian and German data. According to Russian data, from 1993 to 1999, 243,000 Germans left the country, which accounted for about half of the entire emigration outflow to Germany. According to German data, this figure was at least 331.8 thousand people, or 65% of the total number of immigrants.
According to German sources, the return emigration outflow to Russia during the specified period amounted to 90 to 98 thousand people, and of these, about 16-18 thousand were Germans. Consequently, the balance of migration exchange between Germany and Russia was probably in the range of 500-570 thousand people in favor of Germany. We will take this value as an estimate of long-term immigration from Russia to Germany. With this hypothesis, the number of long-term immigrants, according to German estimates, was 1.1-1.25 times higher than the number of emigrants from Russia to Germany according to Russian data. A comparison of all immigrants from Russia, recorded by German statistics, with Russian estimates for emigration to Germany reveals a greater discrepancy between the data.
2.2.9. Russia's special role for Israel
In Israel, immigration is seen not only as vital economic and demographic development process, but also as one of the key elements of the state ideology. Therefore, it is not surprising that the immigration flow into the country is subject to careful statistical observation. In order to facilitate the accelerated and painless adaptation of immigrants in Israel, the Ministry of Absorption of Immigrants was established. Control over immigration processes is based on the developed legislative framework, which is based on the Law of Return or the Law on Entry into the Country.
The definition of an international migrant in Israel's national statistics differs from that recommended by the UN. Citizens of other states arriving or leaving Israel fill out special forms when crossing the border in accordance with the type of visa issued to them: immigrant, tourist, temporary residence, etc. Information about persons with an immigrant visa is then transferred to the population register. According to the definition, an immigrant in Israel is a citizen of another state who enters Israel for the purpose of permanent residence in accordance with the provisions of the Law of Return or the Law of Entry into the Country. In addition, such a specific category as "potential immigrants" is singled out in Israel's international migration statistics. According to a circular from the Ministry of the Interior, since 1991, this category includes persons who entered the country on an immigrant visa or certificate in accordance with the Law of Return with the intention of staying in Israel for up to 3 years in order to ascertain the conditions for settling as immigrants. Potential immigrants are included in the total number of immigrants for the year. In general, a reliable record of immigrants with their various socio-demographic characteristics has been established in Israel.
International migration of Israeli citizens is defined differently than foreigners. Israeli citizens who are going to stay abroad for 365 days or more, but have stayed in Israel for at least 90 days before leaving, fall into the category of "departed Israelis". The category "returning Israeli citizens" includes those who have lived abroad for 365 days or more and intend to stay in Israel for at least 90 days.
During the period from 1919 to 1989, 270,000 immigrants born in the territory of the former USSR arrived in Israel, or approximately 12% of the total number of immigrants during this period. From 1990 to 2002, Israel received more than 870,000 natives of the former Soviet
republics. This figure was 26% of the total number of 3333 thousand registered immigrants who arrived in Israel from 1919 to 2000.
The distribution of migrants by the republics of the former Soviet Union as a previous place of residence in Israeli statistics has been given since 1990. During the period from 1990 to 2000, most of the immigrants came from Ukraine (more than 225 thousand), the Russian Federation (more than 220 thousand), Uzbekistan (about 70 thousand) and Belarus (more than 61 thousand).
The definitions of emigrants in Russia and immigrants in Israel are generally identical, since the main criterion for their definition - leaving the country and entering the country for the purpose of permanent residence - is the same. In general, for 1990-2000, a balance is maintained between Russian data on emigration to Israel and Israeli data on immigration from Russia. According to Russian data, a little more than 203 thousand people left for Israel, according to Israeli data, about 215 thousand people arrived from Russia. However, in some years there are quite significant differences. So, in 1990, according to the USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs, permission to travel to Israel
received 61 thousand inhabitants of the RSFSR. According to Israeli statistics, a little over 45,000 people from the Russian Federation arrived in the country (including potential immigrants). Probably, not all of those who received permission to leave Russia used it, and some of those who left did not go to Israel, but to another country. In subsequent years, the differences between the statistical estimates of the two countries narrowed, but at the same time, there was a steady excess of Israeli estimates of Russian ones (Table 3). In 1995-1997, the difference between them was approximately 10%. With all the degree of caution, it can be assumed that the probable flow of immigrants from Russia to Israel is 1.1 times greater than the emigration outflow noted in Russian statistical reference books.
In Canada, as in the United States, immigration processes have played and continue to play one of the key roles in shaping the country's population. The country has a long tradition of recording and controlling immigration processes. In modern Canada, the legislative framework governing international migration movements, the definition of the main categories of migrants are the Immigration Act of 1976 and the Immigration Rules of 1978. Control over migration processes is carried out by the Department of Citizenship and Immigration.
According to the definition adopted in Canada, immigrants are people who move to the country for the purpose of permanent residence (landing). This definition corresponds to the definition of emigrants adopted in Russia. It is on immigrants that our attention will be focused further. Canadian statistics also develops information on other types of international movements. So, long-term visitors (long-term visitors) include those people who arrived in Canada for a period of more than one year. Accordingly, the number of short-term visitors (short-term visitors) includes those who arrived in the country for a period of less than one year. An important place in Canada's statistics is occupied by the temporary foreign population. It includes those who arrived in the maple leaf country with permission to work or study, refugees and some other categories of people who arrived from abroad. As of June 1, 1999, Canada's temporary foreign population was 271,000, of which 77,000 were foreign workers and 87,000 were foreign students.
In the 1990s, immigration from Russia was not as significant for Canada as it was for Israel, Germany, Finland and
even the USA. In 1992, the share of immigrants from the former USSR was only 1.3% of the 250,000th immigration flow into the country.
About 40% of the immigrants that year came from Hong Kong, China, the Philippines and India. However, by 1998 the share of immigrants from the USSR
increased and amounted to 6.3%. At the end of 1998, Russia ranked tenth among other countries in terms of the number of immigrants,
overtaking Canada's longtime migratory partner, Great Britain.
It is only possible to estimate the volume of immigrants from Russia for the period from 1992 to 2003, since the share of immigrants who were not distributed among the former Soviet republics as their previous place of residence was in 1992 and 1993, respectively, 82% and 38% of the total number of immigrants from the USSR. In subsequent years, this value fluctuated between 6% and 18%. Taking into account these figures, it can be assumed that the probable estimate of the number of immigrants from Russia is in the range from 14.5 to 17.5 thousand people. According to Russian data, 6.3 thousand people went to Canada during the same time period.
Thus, the differences between Canadian and Russian data are quite significant for individual years. On average, in the second half of the 1990s, Canadian estimates were 2.6-3 times higher than Russian ones.
For many people around the world, the concepts of "wealth" and "immigration" are associated with the United States of America. From 1820 - the year continuous immigration registration began - to 1998, 64.6 million people entered the United States. Immigration data is compiled by the United States Immigration and Naturalization Service, which is a division of the Department of Justice.
The basis of immigration statistics is information on entry visas and forms of changes in immigration status. Immigrants to the United States include people who have legally obtained permission to permanently reside in the United States. Basically, similar permission is obtained in other countries of the world. However, since 1989, it can also be obtained in the United States, changing the status of a non-immigrant (non-immigrant), temporarily located in the United States, to the status of a permanent resident of the country. The latter category of persons is also included in immigration statistics. In addition, according to the 1980 Refugee Act, refugees who have lived in the country for more than 1 year can also receive permanent resident status. According to statistics, in 1992-1998, the numbers of newly arrived immigrants and immigrants who received this status in the US itself were approximately equal. In 1989-1991, this ratio was sharply broken in favor of those who changed their status, since during these years more than 2.6 million illegal immigrants and agricultural workers legalized their position in the United States under the Reform and Control Act of 1986.
In the formation of the US population, immigrants - immigrants from the Russian Empire - played a significant role at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries. From 1891 to 1920, 3 million people arrived in the United States from Russia. After a period of long lull in the late 1920s, immigration from the former USSR began to slowly revive in the 1970s. Immigration to the United States increased markedly following the opening of borders and the collapse of the USSR. Moreover, in the mid-1990s, the former Soviet republics ranked second after Mexico in terms of the annual number of immigrants. In total, in the United States for the period from 1990 to 2002, there were more than 450 thousand immigrants from the former USSR, which is 5% of the total number of registered immigrants in the United States during this period.
In US statistical publications containing information on immigration, the most common characteristic of the origin of an immigrant is not the country of previous residence, but the place of his birth. Comparing these data for the USSR for 1991-2002, one can see that the number of immigrants born in the former Soviet republics is 10% higher than the number of immigrants who arrived from their territory. Thus, part of the immigrants - natives of the former USSR - arrived in the United States from other countries. The Russian Federation appears in American directories more often as the birthplace of immigrants. In 1992-1998, 98.7 thousand people who were born on the territory of the Russian Federation received immigrant status in the United States, and, taking into account the adjustment for unallocated immigrants from the former USSR, about 110 thousand. The maximum number of immigrants falls on 1996 (Table 2). At the same time, it should be noted that of those natives of the Russian Federation who received immigrant status after 1991, 53.5 thousand people arrived in the country before acquiring this status as refugees.
Comparing Russian and American data is a rather difficult task. First, in American statistics, the place of origin of an immigrant is determined more often by the place of his birth, and not by the country of his last place of residence. Taking into account the recommendations of international organizations and the specifics of Russian data, for comparison, it is better to use those estimates where the origin of immigrants is determined by the last place of residence. True, it should be noted that in the late 1990s, the number of immigrants born in the Russian Federation was only 3% less than the number of immigrants who arrived from the Russian Federation. Secondly, in US statistics, estimates of migrants are given not for the calendar, but for the fiscal year, which begins on October 1. Thirdly, a significant proportion of people from Russia obtained immigrant status while already in the United States as a refugee or non-immigrant (non-immigrant), and most of them lived in the United States for one to three years or arrived there in the same fiscal year. Perhaps this circumstance explains the discrepancies between Russian and American data in favor of Russian data for 1992 and 1993 (Table 3). In 1996, the proportion of newly arrived immigrants was approximately 35% of all immigrants from Russia who received immigrant status, in 2000 - 55%. Fourth, unlike the US Immigration and Naturalization Service, Russian statistics provide practically no information about who and how receives permission to leave the United States.
Thus, when comparing data, one should take into account the difference between the calendar and fiscal years, as well as the fact that some migrants receive immigrant status with a time lag of 1-3 years. Comparison of data shows significant differences in the annual dynamics of immigrants between Russian and American estimates.
The number of immigrants to the United States in 1996-2002 is 1.2-1.35 more than the number of emigrants from Russia according to Russian data. These estimates will help determine the likely magnitude of Russia's underreporting of emigration to the United States. Approximately the same estimates can be obtained if we compare the annual Russian and American data for 1993-1998. At the same time, given the wealth of American statistics, these conclusions should be clarified after their detailed study.
Finland belongs to the category of states in which an ideal, from a modern point of view, population accounting has been established. The country has a regularly updated centralized population register that can provide varied and reliable information on migratory movements. The definition of external migrants in Finland follows the UN definition. Emigrants include Finnish citizens and foreigners who leave the country for more than a year. Immigrants include Finnish citizens who return to the country after staying abroad for more than 1 year, and foreigners who come to the country for more than 1 year.
Migration exchange with the former Soviet republics, especially with the Russian Federation and Estonia, plays a significant role in the functioning of the Finnish migration system. In 1992, more than 50% of the total number of immigrants to Finland came from the former USSR. By the end of the 1990s, this share dropped to 30%, mainly due to a decrease in immigration inflow from Estonia. More than 20% of all immigrants come from the Russian Federation, and this share is fairly stable.
In total, about 15 thousand people arrived in Finland from Russia during the period from 1992 to 2000 for a period of more than 1 year, and about 1200 people left for Russia. last digit ten times different from those provided by the State Statistics Committee on immigration to Russia from Finland. Finnish estimates of the number of immigrants from Russia also differ significantly from Russian estimates, according to which
From 1992 to 2002, 4457 people left Finland. Thus, over 7 years, the migration increase in the population of Finland at the expense of Russia amounted to about 13,800 people.
It is curious that if the origin of migrants is determined not by the country of the last place of residence, but by their citizenship, then about 16 thousand Russian citizens arrived in Finland. This means that part of the Russian citizens arrived in Finland not from Russia. It should also be noted that if at the beginning of 1990 slightly more than 4 thousand citizens of the former USSR were registered in Finland, then at the end of 2002 the number of Russian citizens alone was 20.5 thousand.
To some extent, differences between Finnish and Russian estimates of immigration are due to differences in definitions. The Finnish definition of immigrants does not only include those who have arrived in the country for permanent residence. In terms of long-term migration in Russia, the total number of emigrants to Finland (corrected for underestimation) is approximately 3 times the size of the registered emigration outflow.
The real scale and prospects of modern emigration are determined not only by the internal situation in the CIS, but also by the situation in those countries and regions where potential emigrants are sent.
From the beginning of the 70s European countries pursuing an increasingly restrictive immigration policy, and in some cases even encouraging the return of immigrants to their homeland, which, however, has no success. These measures are due different reasons, among which
called the energy crisis and the general economic downturn, the restructuring of the economy, the influx of more
numerous cohorts born in the 50s and 60s, the growth of foreigners, the increase in ethnic tensions and the rise
racist sentiment. In the past two decades, the growth in the number of foreigners in Western Europe has not been mainly due to
purposeful attraction of labor from abroad, as was the case after the war, and as a result of family migration, partly
illegal labor migration, the influx of refugees, as well as the relatively higher birth rate of immigrants.
If we leave aside special cases of ethnic emigration (Jews to Israel, Germans to Germany), then in world migration
immigration from the former USSR occupies now and may in the future only a very limited place. In any case, Europe, under the influence of events in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, anti-immigration sentiments are on the rise, although a clear attitude towards possible mass immigration from these regions has not yet been developed.
A marked reticence towards potential immigration from the former USSR is observed in the US as well. multi-million dollar
emigration from the former USSR is really unlikely; there are quite serious limiting factors. At the same time, new political and economic realities can act in the opposite direction. Now it is not entirely clear, for example, how the independence of the republics and their transformation into sovereign states will affect migration processes. For at least some of them, the euphoria of independence and the upsurge of national sentiment can serve as a counterbalance to economic push factors. The Baltic states, which have a significant foreign diaspora, may even seek to return some of their compatriots to their homeland. However, in the large republics in Russia, and probably in Ukraine, the new state-political situation will hardly be able to reduce emigration flows.
What seems to be the general strategic line of both countries of entry and countries of exit in such, so far rather uncertain conditions?
We have a long ideological tradition of an unfriendly attitude towards emigration. Although now there is a turning point in public sentiment and going abroad is beginning to be perceived more calmly, a certain wariness of public opinion remains. At the same time, the problems that not the states (Russia and others), but the emigrants themselves will face if their departure takes on any mass scale, are poorly understood and attract little attention. Such a departure presupposes, in addition to a certain degree of psychological readiness (and it is not particularly high, there were no corresponding traditions), also a rather developed and complex infrastructure. Even now it is running into great difficulties of a purely technical nature: railway and air transport, visa, border and customs services cannot cope with the growing flows of people traveling abroad.
But there is also social infrastructure. We need a more or less established network of emigration links, a system of capillaries facilitating the movement from the familiar to the unaccustomed social environment. Such a system is taking shape gradually, as immigrants self-organize, create fraternities, immigrant communities, etc. So far, only the “third emigration” has this. For the “fourth”, however, at least in the coming years, the emergence of self-braking forces will be characteristic. The manifestations of these forces can be very painful, dramatic for many, which will inevitably limit emigration flows.
The foreseeing of such difficulties is already forcing society (Russian, Ukrainian, etc.) to start developing a new strategy for emigration. It is becoming more and more clear that it is necessary not to prevent it with the help of any kind of prohibitive measures, but to look for ways to turn unorganized, “wild” emigration at your own peril and risk, to which many former Soviet citizens are now inclined, who do not count on state assistance in such an unseemly ( from the point of view of the ideology of the recent past) into an organized, civilized one. The new strategy in the countries of origin should contribute to the gradual transformation of the “crisis” emigration of the labor force, which everyone is so afraid of now, into a “normal”, if possible temporary, elimination of all obstacles to exit and entry, the formation of stable flows of direct and return migration. One of the elements of such a strategy is intergovernmental agreements between the countries of emigration and immigration (here, however, the counter strategy of the latter is important, which has not yet been worked out either).
It is also important to see the pitfalls that mass emigration may face, the political consequences, including international ones, that it can generate. Already now in Europe there is concern not only of official authorities, but also of representatives of immigrants from African and Asian countries, who fear discrimination in competition with Russians and other “Europeans” of the former USSR who are more prepared and closer in culture to Western Europeans. Our emigrants may face hostile attitudes and find themselves in an even more difficult situation than at home. In the event of serious excesses on this ground, a certain interstate tension may arise between countries of emigration that protect the rights of their citizens abroad, and countries of immigration that do not fully respect these rights.
You will not turn a blind eye to other aspects of the new emigration. Suffice it to recall the reaction of Israel's Arab neighbors to the massive influx of our emigrants into this country and their settlement in territories that the Arabs do not consider Israeli. Another example is the concern of Western countries about the possible emigration to countries such as Iraq or Libya of Soviet specialists who possess atomic or other military-industrial secrets.
All this speaks not only of the complexity of the problems generated by a possible large-scale emigration from the former USSR, but also of the special geopolitical importance of their solution. It is not enough to consider the very phenomenon of such emigration only as "economic" or "ethnic". It is also (and perhaps primarily) a necessary, most important step towards the transformation of one of the largest industrial societies on Earth from closed to open.
According to the calculations of the State Statistics Committee, the actual population of Russia at the beginning of 2001 amounted to 145,184.8 thousand people and decreased in 2000 by 740.1 thousand. Thus, in 2001, the decline in the population of Russia somewhat decreased, which happened due to an increase in migration growth by 59 thousand people, while the natural increase decreased, but only by 30.7 thousand.
Table. 9
|
years |
Population at the beginning of the year |
General gain |
Average annual growth rate, ppm |
natural growth |
Migration growth |
Population at the end of the year |
The country's population began to decrease in 1992. For 9 years from 1992 to 2002, it decreased by 3519.5 thousand people, including in 2002 - by 740.1 thousand people. Due to its internal conditionality, the trend of population decline is quite stable.
Age structure of the population plays an active role in demographic processes.
The age structure accumulates and stores a stock of demographic inertia, the potential for population growth, due to which the population movement continues for a long time after the driving forces of this movement have already dried up or changed their direction to the opposite. Therefore, the influence of the age structure is always taken into account when analyzing the dynamics of demographic processes.
Throughout the twentieth century. Russia's population is declining for the fourth time. But unlike the first three periods - the First World War and the Civil War, the famine and repressions of the 30s, the Second World War - when the population decline was due to non-demographic factors, in the 90s it was predetermined by the very course of demographic development. It was predicted by demographers at the end of the outgoing century. The system-wide crisis that unfolded during the transition period only accelerated and aggravated the realization of long-standing forecasts. Although the population decline is not yet as great and catastrophic as in the previous three periods, this trend, due to its internal conditionality, is stable and, most likely, will continue in the short term.
The general trend in the change in the age structure of the population of all countries as the birth rate declines and life expectancy rises is a steady increase in the proportion of the population of older ages in the age structure. This process is called demographic aging of the population.
Population decline occurred mainly due to natural loss, i.e. excess of the number of deaths over the number of births (about 7 million people in 1992-2000), as well as due to emigration to the "far abroad" (about 850 thousand people). However, the actual reduction in the population was almost three times less due to a rather significant migration influx of population from the CIS and Baltic countries.
The natural decline in the population of Russia is due to the mode of population reproduction with low levels of mortality and fertility, which developed in Russia by the 1960s and which even earlier became characteristic of most developed countries. For some time, the natural increase still remained relatively high - mainly due to the favorable age structure of the population, in which some potential for demographic growth was "accumulated". But as this potential was exhausted, natural growth began to decline.
Nevertheless, up until the 1990s, it was the determining component of Russia's population growth. For a long time, it even combined with the migration outflow from Russia, more than covering this decline. Beginning in 1975, population growth was already due to both natural growth and migration inflow from the Union republics, which, as a rule, did not exceed 1/4 of the total increase. But then the role of the migration component changed dramatically - at first, its contribution to population growth simply increased, and since 1992, when the natural population decline began, migration has remained the only source of population growth. However, even the volumes of net migration that increased after the collapse of the USSR could not cover the natural decline of Russians; in recent years, net migration has also been declining.
Let's consider graphically how much the migration growth of the population compensates for the natural decline since 1992:
Table 10
Migration growth of the country's population in January-August 2002 only 5.1% compensated for the natural decline. (In 2000, the natural population decline was offset by 21.6% by the increased migration growth of the country's population, in 1999 by 16.7%). This is the lowest figure for the entire period of population decline since 1992. to 2001. This ratio, despite the decrease in natural loss, was the result of a significant (in comparison with January-August 2000) reduction in migration growth.
Since 1992, the death rate in Russia has exceeded the birth rate, and depopulation , i.e., a decrease in the number of indigenous people. Its occurrence occurred abruptly, according to an epidemic type.
The natural decline in the population was the largest in 1994, then, on the whole, its level was quite stable - 0.5-0.6% per year until 1999. Fluctuations in migration growth were more significant, and they caused fluctuations in the overall population decline. In 1999 society responded to the August financial crisis with a sharp rise in mortality.
Dynamics of demographic indicators in Russia (per 1000 people):
Tab. eleven.
|
fertility |
Mortality |
Natural. growth |
total fertility |
|
The maximum rate of decline in the birth rate occurred in 1987-1993. During this time, the number of new residents born annually has almost halved. If in 1986 there were 17.2 per 1000 of the population, then in 1993 - 9.2, and in 2000 - 8.8 ppm (Table 5). As a result, Russia has lost more than 12 million citizens unborn. The decline in childbearing activity was observed in women of all reproductive ages.
The total fertility rate, i.e., the number of children per woman aged 15–49, fell critically from 2.2 in 1986–1987 to to 1.2 in 2000
The decrease in the birth rate by almost 30% over six years occurred for two main reasons: a) - in the early 1990s, the number of women of childbearing age, which became "children of war children" decreased; b) - today two-thirds of families refuse to have children for material reasons, postponing their appearance (and thereby changing the "timing" of births) or generally preferring childlessness. For 10 years (1987-1997), the absolute number of births has almost halved: from 2.5 to 1.26 million per year.
The decline in the birth rate is becoming extremely dangerous for Russia. First, the internal potential of demographic reproduction has been exhausted. After all, to replace generations of parents, you need a birth rate, measured by a total fertility rate of at least 2.1, and today it is only 1.26. Secondly, the population and labor force are aging, people's health is declining, the one-child family is becoming dominant.
However, the main factor of natural decline is exorbitant increase in mortality . Over the past six years, the crude mortality rate has increased by more than 20% (from 11.4% in 1991 to 14.2% in 2002). It became the highest in Europe. The inertial causes of the increase in mortality are very insignificant, and this is evidenced by the dynamics of age-specific mortality rates. It shows that, contrary to natural processes, more young people die today than old ones. Thus, over the period from 1991 to 2002, the crude mortality rate did not increase for groups under the age of 15 years; in the elderly, its growth was 1.1, and in working age it reached 1.4. Moreover, among young people (20–25 years old) and among the most effective working ages (45–49 years old), mortality increased by 1.5 times.
These shifts are largely associated with the exacerbation of the "external causes" of mortality (accidents, poisoning, injuries, murders and suicides). Over the past 30 years, this figure has increased 30 times.
Thus, today the following features are characteristic of mortality in Russia:
Demographic forecasts are at the heart of any social forecasting and planning.
The forecast of the total population is of interest for assessing the long-term consequences of the demographic situation that has developed by the beginning of the forecast period.
Most often, such a forecast is based on the hypothesis of a constant observed or assumed population growth rate. In this case, the population changes exponentially according to the formula:
where is the total population at the end of the forecast period; - total population at the beginning of the forecast period; k- estimated population growth rate in the forecast period; t- the value of the forecast period.
Let's determine what the population in Russia may be in 2011. The population at the beginning of 2001 was 145,184.8 thousand people. The overall population growth rate observed in 2000 is -0.51%. Assuming that this coefficient does not change for ten years, we get:
137966.0 thousand people (22)
In 2000, the overall population growth in Russia (-0.51%) was the result of the summation of negative natural growth (-0.66%) and positive migration growth (0.15%). It is quite obvious that the migration influx will dry up rather quickly. It mainly consists of Russians who are leaving the former Soviet republics. But, firstly, the number of potential immigrants is not infinite. Secondly, not all Russians will leave the independent countries for which they are indigenous people.
The State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics has published a forecast of the population of Russia until 2016:
All three forecast options (medium, low and high) predict a further decrease in Russia's population. It is expected that by the beginning of 2016 it will be, depending on the option, from 128.4, 134 or 143.7 million people. According to the middle variant, the number of 81 out of 89 subjects of the federation will decrease by 2016. Exceptions are Moscow, the Republic of Kalmykia, Dagestan, Ingushetia and the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, the Republic of Altai, the Ust-Orda Buryat and Aginsk Buryat Autonomous Okrugs.
The aging of the Russian population will continue. Although until 2006 the population of working ages will increase, then it will begin to decline rapidly. The low birth rate and rising life expectancy will lead to an increase in the proportion of older people in the population structure and a decrease in the proportion of children. As a result, the total burden on the working-age population will first fall to 57 per 100 people of working age in 2007, and then rise again to about the current level.
All population forecasts made for Russia by the leading centers are pessimistic. “The demographic weakness of Russia is undoubted, and one should not build illusions about the future change in the demographic situation for the better”.
The way out of the hopeless situation appears with the discovery of the law of "spiritual-demographic determination". It testifies to the possibility of a powerful non-economic management of the health of the population. Overcoming depopulation in Russia is possible in 3-4 years through non-economic regulators of a moral and emotional nature. The structure of health measures should consist of 20% efforts to improve the standard of living and 80% quality of life. First of all, it is the achievement of social justice in society and finding the meaning of life.
As a result of the work carried out, the following conclusions were obtained:
1 The collapse of the USSR inevitably entails the emergence of a new migration situation. Changes can be very significant and give rise to consequences that are important not only for the CIS states, but for the entire international community. Established migration trends are characterized by at least three fundamental important elements: displacement of the newcomer population from the social niche that it occupied until recently, emigration from overpopulated areas and increasing emigration outside the former Soviet Union .
2 Demographic processes develop under the influence of other social processes: economic, political and others. In turn, demographic processes influence the course of all other social processes. For example, low level the birth rate leads to an increase in the percentage of pensioners in society and to an aggravation of the problem of "fathers and children". Fluctuations in the birth rate after a certain time are manifested in the corresponding (or opposite) fluctuations in the level of employment in the labor market, the level of crime, competitions between applicants for admission to educational establishments etc.
3 The country is experiencing demographic degradation.
4 In the near future, Russia will be overtaken by two powerful demographic blows in 2013 and 2033, the prerequisites for which arose in 1990-1993. by doubling the number of births. Immigrants will inevitably have to be brought in to cover the deficit.
5 Until now, in all countries that have a demographic situation similar to ours and are trying to somehow correct it, measures of material support for families are mainly used with the help of various benefits and benefits. As history shows, the effectiveness of these measures is low. Deeper purposeful changes are needed in culture, in the whole way of life of society in order to increase the prestige of family life, the prestige of a family with several children, which is very low today. This requires a special family policy, large-scale programs of a cultural, and not just economic order.
The methods used in demographic analysis can be conditionally divided into groups.
1. Statistical methods, or demographic statistics. These methods have been used for a long time and are well developed. Methods are used to analyze trends in demographic events. statistical analysis, which consist in the calculation of absolute, relative and average values, indices, probable characteristics of the intensity of demographic processes. Examples of such indicators can be: absolute increase (decrease) in the population for a certain period of time; the rate of increase (decrease) in the population of the whole or a certain age group; the ratio of men and women on average and by age groups, etc.
On the basis of the general statistical methodology of analysis by demographic statistics, their own methods of analysis have been developed, an example of which can be the so-called demographic tables.
They represent a system of probable characteristics of the age-specific intensity of events. For example, life tables contain indicators of "probability of death", which characterize the probability for a person who has reached the age of X years to die at the age x+n years.
2. Mathematical models. A wide variety of relationships between demographic processes and factors necessitated the use mathematical models. Such models make it possible to establish a quantitative relationship between demographic processes and the factors influencing them.
Mathematical models are used to analyze the patterns of development of individual demographic processes, the reproduction of the population as a whole, the analysis of the patterns of family development and the relationship of demographic processes with the development of the economy, the state of the environment, etc. The use of modern electronic computers contributes to the widespread use of mathematical models in demographic analysis.
3. Sociological methods. To analyze demographic behavior, information is needed that can be obtained by applying special methods and techniques (about personality, family decisions, motivation for individual demographic actions of a person, etc.). Such techniques have been developed in sociology and psychology and are borrowed by demography.
4. Graph-analytical and cartographic methods presented in the form of graphs, diagrams, drawings, population density maps, etc. Such a display makes it possible to visually show and more easily present the general patterns of development of demographic processes, their structure.
Specific (own) graphic methods include a graphic representation of the age and sex structure of the population, the so-called age-sex pyramid. They reflect the age and sex structure of the population at a certain moment and give an idea of the influence of the birth and death processes on the age composition of the population for a long time, as well as the influence of the current age structure of the population on the prospects for increasing its number.
The demographic grid (Lexis grid, Press grid) is also widely used in demography, which, using graphic construction, displays a set of people and events in order to calculate the main characteristics of demographic processes in a generation and analyze their course over time (Fig. 5).
Fig.1 Demographic grid
The analysis of demographic events on the demographic grid is carried out using three types of lines: a horizontal age line, a vertical time line, and a diagonal life line that runs at an angle 45 degrees.
The ability to determine individual demographic characteristics using a grid is based on the relationship: the date of occurrence of a certain event is equal to the date a person entered a certain state plus the duration of being in this state at the time of the event (at the time of observation). A necessary condition for this is that the calculation of the time and duration of the state is carried out in the same units.
For example, the moment of marriage is in 1996, and the date of birth of the child is 01/01/2000. With the help of the graphic image shown in fig. 1, you can set the length of stay in marriage to the birth of a child.
5. Qualitative demographic analysis involves compliance with certain methodological requirements both for the selection of specific methods and indicators, and for the analyzed information. One of the requirements for information to ensure the reliability of calculations is its scope and quality. It should be comprehensive and reliable both in general and in individual positions.
First of all, the indicators should refer to the population of the territory that is being analyzed. It is also necessary to check the completeness of accounting for all demographic processes needed for analysis. The reliability of information is enhanced by using as many different sources of information as possible, including survey results. This ensures the versatility of information data about the population and contributes to the implementation of a full-fledged analysis.
Qualitative demographic analysis also requires data characterizing the factors on which the dynamics of processes in the population depends. For example, when analyzing the dynamics of the birth rate, it is necessary to take into account changes that occur in the economic sphere, in the environment, etc.
Sources of population data. BASICS OF DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Population data sources Definition of demographic analysis Absolute demographic indicators Population doubling period Demographic balance equation Relative demographic indicators Indicators of the intensity and calendar of the demographic process
Two main sources: census and current record Demographic description of the population – two types Population movement statistics Description of events in Population population Structures of the population Census on Current record a specific moment (a certain time period, year) Statistics of the state of the population
Population censuses As defined by the UN Statistical Commission: "A population census is a single process of collecting, summarizing, evaluating, analyzing and publishing demographic, economic and social data on the population as of a certain point in time" The first census of the modern type - 1846, Brussels ( under the leadership of A. Quetelet) On the recommendation of the UN since the 1960s. are carried out in all countries of the world with an interval of 10 years systematic observation comparability across countries
Scientific principles of the census 1. Universality (underestimation of up to 2%) 2. Critical moment (synchronism) 3. Names: the unit of observation is a family or household, in it (in it) - information about each person 4. Unity of the census program 5. The principle of self-determination 6. Regularity 7. Respect for personal secrecy 8. Centralization
Who is being rewritten. Categories of the population Permanent population (living in this place of residence for more than 1 year) (PN) Demonstrated population (HN) Temporarily absent - (VO) Temporarily present - (VP) NU = PN - VO + VP Legal population (assigned) - regardless of location actual residence
Census program Demographic block of questions: - Date of birth or age - Place of birth - Gender - Marital status - Marital status - Information about migration Socio-economic block of questions: - Education - Employment - Religious affiliation– Nationality – Native (spoken) language – Sources of livelihood, etc. Any question of interest to the state can be included in the census
Population censuses in the Russian Empire, USSR, Russia 1. 2. 1897 (February 9). First general census. 1926 (December 16-17). The first general population census in the USSR. Program 14 questions (26 volumes) 3. 1937 (January 6 - further until 2002 - January). Program 14 questions 4. 1939 Program 16 questions 5. 1959 Program 15 questions 6. 1970 Program 11 (+7) questions 7. 1979 Program 11 (+5) questions 8. 1989 Program 20 (+5) questions 9. 2002 (9 Oct.). Program 22 (+16) questions 10. 2010 (14 -25 Oct.). Program 25 (+12) questions
Census slogans: examples UK, 2001 "Count me!" USA, 2000 “This is your future. Don't leave it empty!" Russia: "Inscribe yourself in the history of Russia" - 2002 "Everyone is important to Russia" - 2010
Methods of carrying out censuses Expeditionary By mail By telephone By Internet 2 years before the general census, a pilot census is conducted to refine the questionnaire and procedure
Population of Russia according to censuses Year Population (million people) Share of urban population (%) 1897 1926 1937 67.5 92.7 104.9 15 18 33 1939 1959 1970 1979 1989 2002 2010 108.4 117.2 129 137.4147.1145.3142.9 33 52 62 69 73 73 73.7
Vital records Regular collection of data on vital events: births, deaths, marriages, divorces Why is vital records necessary? - Obtaining data on the constantly changing size and composition of the population - Legal registration of demographic events of legal significance
Sample surveys Proper demographic: WFS - World Fertility Survey VOC (Value of Children) DHS - Demographic & Health Survey FFS - Fertility Family Survey GGR - Generation & Gender Non-demographic, but containing demographic information: Russia Longitudial Monitoring Survey (RLMS) (Russian monitoring of economic status and health – RLMS) European Values Survey (ESS) Luxembourg Income Survey
Administrative sources Information about certain groups of the population, which is collected by various organizations and stored in the form of lists, file cabinets or databases. For example: military registration and enlistment offices, personnel departments of enterprises, police, migration service, voter lists, etc. Lists of students of the faculty of global processes by year of admission.
Registers List of names and regularly updated list of inhabitants of a municipality/prefecture/country First in Sweden (1749). Nationwide registries exist in some countries of the North and Western Europe: Belgium, Denmark, Luxembourg, Spain, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Great Britain, France. In the USA - regional registers.
Registers Inclusion in the register: at birth or entry into the country, a person is assigned a personal registration number; further personal information is entered. The register is complete information about the “demographic fate” of a person, families and households. Approaches population censuses if it covers the entire population Countries that have national electronic population registers conduct population censuses on a reduced program.
Example 1: Finland - Census 2000 According to the data of the registers, the answers to the questions of the census form were filled in advance, the respondents corrected inaccuracies. Reducing the cost of the census by 40 times and reducing the census staff from 2 thousand people to 20 people. Example 2: Germany 2010 - the use of the registers of the federal states reduced the cost of the census by 3 times. . In our country, even without the use of registers, 1 rewritten is spent 10 times less than in the USA
Accounting for migration is more complicated than taking into account the natural movement of the population: it is difficult to identify a migrant (the selection criteria are the length of stay); multiple moves - accounting for events, not people; the problem of data comparability: accounting by different departments using different methods; weaker accounting of departing (emigrants); International migration: incompatibility of definitions in international migration (migrant, emigrant, immigrant, foreign population); incompatibility of accounting systems in different countries; illegal migration is not taken into account
Statistics and records of international migrants Border statistics Administrative sources (issuance of visas, residence permits, work permits). Population registers / registers of foreigners (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Iceland, Spain, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Switzerland) Censuses and sample surveys UN migration statistics are based on data from population censuses (foreign-born population)
Demographic analysis is a mathematical/statistical procedure that measures changes in a population and the drivers of those changes. Analysis of population dynamics and age-sex structure Analysis of the dynamics of demographic processes Analysis of the interaction between age-sex structure and demographic processes
Longitudinal analysis: pros and cons Advantages of longitudinal analysis: Ability to gain insight into the impact of changing living conditions on the dynamics of demographic processes Studying the actual sequence of demographic events in the lives of individuals, their totality, connection with socio-economic and political processes Disadvantages of longitudinal analysis: There is a risk of inaccuracies in retrospective analysis (events are forgotten, the chronology of events is confused) Some individuals will drop out of observation (death, emigration). Requires a large initial sample
Cross-sectional analysis - analysis of people of different ages living at the same time Demographic indicators calculated for a particular year depend on the characteristics of demographic processes in all real generations living simultaneously )
Absolute demographic indicators S - absolute population N - absolute number of births M - absolute number of deaths V + (I) - absolute number of those who entered the given territory V - (E) - absolute number of those who left the given territory for certain ages: n. Sx is the absolute number of the population in the age range from x to x+n 5 S 20 is the number of the population aged 20-24 n. Nx - the absolute number of births to mothers in the age range from x to x + n 5 N 20 - the absolute number of births to mothers in
Absolute population. Population - the number of people living in a given area at a certain point in time (or on a certain date)
Population by regions of the world (million people, beginning of the year) Regions of the world 1900 2010 Worldwide 1,630 6,067 6,909 Asia 948 3,684 4,167 Africa 110,800 1,033 Europe 290,582,733 Latin America 64 518 589 North America 81 306 351 Oceania 7 31 36
Ten most populous countries in the world Country 2010 Population (millions) Country 2050 Population (millions) China 1,354 India 1,628 India 1,214 China 1,437 US 318 US 420 Indonesia 232 Nigeria 299 Brazil 195 Pakistan 295 Pakistan 184 Indonesia 285 Bangladesh 164 Brazil 260 8. Russia 143 Bangladesh 231 Nigeria 138 DR Congo 183 Japan 127 Ethiopia 145
Absolute number of births, N (million people, 2010) (1) India 27,051 thousand (2) China 16,163 thousand (3) Nigeria 6,196 thousand (4) Pakistan 5,460 thousand (5) Indonesia 5 109k (6) USA 4,329k (7) Bangladesh 3,689k (8) Brazil 3,230k (9) Ethiopia 3,198k (16) Russia 1,716k
Absolute number of deaths, M (million people, 2010) (1) India 9,400 thousand (2) China 8,666 thousand (3) Nigeria 2,487 thousand (4) USA 2,289 thousand (5) Russia 2 085k (6) Indonesia 1,533k (7) Pakistan 1,266k (8) Brazil 1,193k (9) Japan 1,148k (10) Bangladesh 1,119k
Population doubling period "Population doubling period" - the time during which the initial population will increase by 2 times. The shorter this period, the faster the population grows Measures the rate of population growth by the time required to double the population at a given growth rate If the population growth is negative, then we are talking about the time to halve the population
Period of doubling of the population of regions of the world Developed countries - 1400 years, less developed countries - 79 years UAE - 11 years Eritrea (Africa) - 15 years Nigeria - 30 years China - 100 years, Europe - 1530 years Russia - 1500 years Worldwide - 120 years
Demographic balance equation Population size Increases due to births and immigration Decreases due to deaths and emigration and net migration are components of population change.
DEMOGRAPHIC BALANCE EQUATION S(t) - S(0)= (N - M) + (V+ - V-) (N - M) - natural increase component (V + - V-) - migration increase component S(t) - S (0) - population growth for a period of time t
Components of population change Component of natural increase (N – M) Component of migration increase (V+ – V-)
Where is the birth rate higher? In China (16 million births annually) or in Norway (60.3 thousand births annually)?
Relative demographic indicators Indicators of the intensity of the demographic process Indicators of the calendar of the demographic process Probability coefficients Average age of the event
The structure of any coefficient: The numerator is the number of demographic events in the population for a certain period of time (from current records) - The number of births - The number of deaths - The number of marriages, etc. these events over the same period of time
Recording form of demographic indicators: x Population of the age group (x, x + n) x + n Length of the age interval Age of the beginning of the age interval
The denominator of any coefficient is the average number of person-years of life In a simplified form, it is calculated as the average annual population multiplied by the length of the calculation period
Calculation of crude rates Crude birth rate: Crude death rate: ‰ - ppm (per thousand)
Why can't absolute values be used to analyze demographic processes? Russia 1926 1996 Number of deaths, M 1920 thousand 2082 thousand Population, S 92.7 million 147.9 million 20.7‰ 14.2‰ Crude mortality rate, m
Where is the birth rate higher? China Norway 16 million 60.3 thousand 1,304 million 5,002 thousand 12‰ 12‰ Number of births, N Mid-year population, S Total fertility rate, n
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. TFR depends on: The proportion of women in the population, the proportion of women of childbearing (reproductive - 15-49 years) among all women, the age structure of these women of childbearing age (a higher birth rate of 2035 years) the intensity of fertility in each age group of marriage
Advantages and disadvantages of general coefficients + DO NOT DEPEND ON POPULATION Easy to calculate - an advantage for lazy people !!! SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON POPULATION STRUCTURE AND THEREFORE UNSUITABLE FOR COMPARISON
Spread of values of general coefficients in the world n min max 8 ‰ Germany 9 ‰ Taiwan China) and developed countries -12‰ (14 ‰ Russia) 41 ‰ Congo 49 ‰ Mali 48 ‰ Niger m 2 ‰ UAE 2 ‰ Kuwait 5 ‰ Algeria 28 ‰ Lesotho 22‰ Angola 21‰ Afghanistan
SPECIAL FERTILITY RATE - depends on the structure of the denominator Average number of children born per thousand women of reproductive age in period T
Infant mortality The ratio of children who died under the age of 1 year in a certain period to the number of live births. Measured in ppm
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (Total Fertility Rate. ; TFR) - does not depend on the age structure TFR (TFR) is equal to the sum of age-specific fertility rates in all age intervals / 1000
All methods of demographic analysis can be divided into 3 groups:
BUT) proper mathematical methods– methods of mathematical modeling for the viability of demographic processes
B) statistical methods– sampling method, median indicator, %, ppm, population method
3. Demographic methods:
BUT) conditional generation method- the study of the population in statics, involves the removal of a "frame" of the population - photographing the population at some point in time, then - studying the population. This population includes everyone - from those who have just been born to those who have just died. "Kadr" is a population census, as it has the principle of simultaneity. They are called differently cross section method. There is a critical moment of the census - the start of the census (eg October 9, at 00:00). All data is determined at this moment. You can study the dynamics by comparing censuses every 10 years.
B) conditional generation method- the study of the population in dynamics, involves the study of a specific generation - peers living at the same time, born at the same time. More nationally oriented. are called by the "longitudinal cut" method.
Demographic coefficient method– development of the main demographic characteristics.
Allocate:
General coefficients (for the entire population)
A) birth rate, ppm
Characterizes the number of births per thousand population
B) coefficient. mortality, ppm
Kc= M/S * 1000
Shows the rate of deaths per 1,000 population
B) odds natural growth, ppm
K e.p. \u003d (N-M) / S * 1000 \u003d Kr-Ks
Characterizes the difference between the number of births and deaths for a certain period of time for a certain period of time. territory
D) coefficient. marriage, ppm
Cbr=B*1000/S
D) coefficient. developability, ppm
Krazv=D*1000/S
Special coefficients (detailed study of processes)
A) Special odds. fertility FORMULA DO NOT KNOW
B) Total coefficient. fertility - average, characterizes the number of children born per woman of childbearing age this year (if 1 - narrowed reproduction, 2 - simple fertility rate, 3 - extended)
Partial coefficients (for certain population groups) - for example, for urban, rural population.
Graphical methods- the ability to visualize demographic processes:
Cartographic methods - transfer of different demographics. indicators to a map that contains a color palette (black and white or color). Each palette corresponds to def. demographic level. indicators. The map is colored according to which city, region or country corresponds to the level of demographic indicators.
social methods. analysis - give more quality characteristics(surveys, questionnaires, for example - for what reason marriage was concluded)
