Last week was marked by the growth of the dollar by foreign exchange market. At the auctions on Monday, as well as today, the US currency also strengthened. Experts believe that the dollar is likely to rise further. What awaits the Belarusian ruble this week.
- Weakening Belarusian ruble to other currencies is quite in line with the interests of the National Bank, which thereby supports the competitiveness of Belarusian products, - says Mark Goykhman, leading analyst at Teletrade Group of Companies. - The dollar rose against the background of the general growth and against the Belarusian ruble. The pair dollar and Belarusian ruble, as we expected last week, exceeded 2,100 rubles. But now, after a rally of several days, a pause in growth is possible. In general, the desire of the dollar to the level of 2.140 rubles remains, but its preliminary "trading" in the region of 2.100 is possible.
The expert notes that the Belarusian ruble is under pressure from both the growing dollar and the currency of emerging markets in general, against the backdrop of an increase interest rates in the US and the dangers of trade wars.
- In case of fixing above the level of 2.1200 Belarusian rubles, there is a high probability of going to 2.1400 rubles. The dollar is now on the rise, which also corresponds to the long-term trend of its growth against the Belarusian. It is quite possible to reach the milestone of 2,1800 - 2,200 rubles in the coming months. At this level, it is possible to stop the growth of the dollar, since technically these are strong levels of resistance to the strengthening of the American, Mark Goykhman predicts.
The analyst says that the euro pair and the Belarusian ruble are under the contradictory influence of factors. On the one hand, the Belarusian currency is weakening against the dollar, but at the same time, the euro is feeling pressure from the American.
— Therefore, EUR/BYN is in a narrow range without a pronounced movement. The pair remained in the 2.4000-2.5000 corridor,” Mark Goykhman concluded. - Probably, this situation will continue in the coming days, the range remains relevant.
The expert points out that Russian ruble is growing. This is due to the strengthening of oil quotes, which in recent days have jumped from $ 70 above $ 83 for Brent.
— The pair of Russian and Belarusian ruble, as expected in the previous week, has reached the target movement of 0.0320. At the same time, quotes rose even higher, which technically indicates a desire to storm 0.0326-0.0328. But a possible suspension of the growth of oil prices and the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar can still limit the strengthening of the Russian to the Belarusian, - says Mark Goykhman. “Therefore, with a general upward trend, the pair may correct slightly downwards, to the level of 0.0319-0.0320 that was broken earlier upwards, which has now become support from below.
(constantly updated)
To hand over to euro and dollar. So, today at the auction the dollar rose to 2.1605 rubles, and the euro - up to 2.4977 rubles. Experts advise how Belarusians should behave in such a situation on the foreign exchange market - wait, go to an exchanger, buy goods or take some other action.
It will be possible to predict the exchange rate of major currencies against the Belarusian ruble only in three months, the economist believes Lev Margolin. If the second package of anti-Russian sanctions comes into force, this will cause a serious deterioration in the situation on the foreign exchange market. However, you can prepare for monetary instability now.
- The fall of the Belarusian ruble will continue, as Russia is our main external trading partner. If our currency strengthens, then Belarusian exports for Russians will become more and more expensive. Usually they respond to this by reducing demand, which is like death for the country.
The expert believes that when forming the exchange rate, the National Bank tries to take into account the interests of Belarusian exporters, the so-called industrial lobby.
“Despite the fact that our aksakals left the government, I think that there is still someone to lobby their interests. But another thing is that the National Bank can again spin up inflation, which has already more or less reduced to acceptable levels.
According to the analyst, because of this, imported goods will “certainly rise in price” with a time lag of 3-4 months. The price of all other goods will also change.
— The fact is that in our economy, the import component can be found in almost every product, even in bakery products. In addition, fuel is becoming more expensive, and the transport component is, without exception, all industrial and consumer goods. Therefore, difficult times await us.
The analyst advises buying foreign currency whenever possible.
— I think that Belarusians are always ready for anything, because what is happening today has happened more than once. When the question is where to keep the money - in a jar or in a bank, I would advise the first option. If hard times come, I do not exclude that there may be restrictions on the use currency accounts. Therefore, everything is very clear: keep it at home and do not show it to anyone.
According to a senior analyst at Alpari Vadim Iosuba, this week the increase in the exchange rate of major currencies will be replaced by a decrease. This is due to the fact that the seasonal demand for foreign currency will end.
“I expect rates lower by the end of the week than they were at the end of last week,” predicts Vadim Iosub. - I see the dollar exchange rate - 2.12 rubles, the euro - 2.46, and the Russian ruble - 3.07.
The analyst says that it is not worth running to the exchangers now either for currency or to turn it in.
“We need to stop running back and forth. You can run to buy, then run to sell and, due to all this, have guaranteed losses. On each of the operations you will lose margin between buying and selling. The most reasonable behavior today is to keep half of the money in Belarusian rubles on deposit at the highest possible rate (today it is 12.5%. - Note ed.). The other half is to be kept in dollars. But by no means in Russian rubles. And, in my opinion, dollars in the foreseeable future will be preferable to the euro.
Vadim Iosub believes that the fall of the Belarusian ruble against the currency basket will affect the cost imported goods. But this will not happen instantly, because the logistics of supply takes a certain time.
“Changes in prices on store shelves can be expected with a delay of at least a month,” the expert says. - It is worth paying attention to the fact that the Russian ruble, despite the growth, is still lower than it was at the beginning of the year. The dollar is growing. Those goods that we import for dollars, they have risen in price and will continue to rise in price. But Russian ones will be cheaper than at the beginning of the year.
Financial consultant of Teletradebel LLC Zhanna Kulakova also believes that running around exchangers during periods of increased volatility is a bad idea.
I advise you to keep money in different currencies, even when nothing foreshadows the growth of the dollar. Then you won't have a headache currency fluctuations, — the financial adviser is sure.
Regarding exchange rates in the near future, Zhanna Kulakova says that this is an equation with many unknowns.
- Here you need to take into account the situation with Russia, but there it is impossible to predict something. It is necessary to take into account the euro-dollar rate, our internal problems and the risks that we also have,” the expert lists. - I think that the dollar exchange rate of 2.20 in our foreseeable future is a very real prospect. Optimism on Russian market not viewed. And until a decision is made on the most vexing potential sanctions that could affect Russian public debt, systemically important banks and strategically important companies, the Russian ruble may remain under pressure. And it certainly affects our market too.
Zhanna Kulakova is inclined to believe that the courses foreign currencies will still grow
— Considering that the exchange rate of the Russian ruble in our market is rather low — 3.09 today, I see the potential for its further growth. I admit that all three foreign currencies will rise in price, respectively, our ruble will fall against the basket. Until the end of this week, the dollar may rise in price to 2.20 rubles, the euro - 2.50-2.55, the Russian ruble - we will adhere to the range indicated by the Minister of Economy - 3.1-3.2, Zhanna Kulakova predicts.
According to the financial consultant, the change in exchange rates has already affected the prices of imported goods.
— Our ruble has strengthened against the Russian one for a long time. And the further the exchange rate of the ruble falls in our market, the more often people have the question of what to buy in Russia. This affects both exports, and imports, and the balance of foreign trade,” the expert explains. - The growth of the dollar and the euro will affect imports. Import prices are rising quite quickly. What we import for dollars and euros can become more expensive for us, and what we import for Russian rubles can become cheaper.
October 11, 2018 14116The prerequisites for such conclusions are serious - well-aimed sanctions strikes from Western enemies are coming soon and without fail, plus a heap of unsolvable problems has accumulated within the country itself.
In fact, ACRA recognizes that there is no way to avoid a recession, one can only hope for a scenario where everything will cost little blood. Or is the country waiting for a fall below the bottom of 2015?
Sanctions and world problems in addition to them
First and an almost obligatory strike by the United States against Russian economy ACRA experts call a ban on American businesses buying Russian government bonds.
Firstly, because the sanctions have already been imposed so heartily that it is no longer possible to come up with something else on a large scale.
Secondly, the alternative is not to introduce any new sanctions, but simply to keep the old ones. But it seems so unrealistic, judging by the voices coming out of Congress, that they chose to include the “bad” option in the forecast.
Experts proceed from the fact that no one will buy the Russian government bonds dumped by the Americans again, and these are losses at the level of 8-10% of the state debt.
Second the punitive measure should be a ban on US-controlled banks and financial institutions service Russian banks. Just small things, about 600 billion Russian rubles, or about 1% of assets, can be directly frozen on accounts, because bankers have long insured themselves.
However, these are just working capital, and in total, 17-18 trillion Russian rubles pass through non-resident banks. Per month !
The blocking of this direction will make the work of the Russian financial sector very difficult, and will reverberate throughout the country's economy.
Finally, the most difficult in forecasting and scale factor: a radical drop in prices for hydrocarbons. For example, up to $40 per barrel of oil instead of the current $84. This will shake up the entire world market, and not only Russia, but Russia, for sure, will suffer losses.
If only because the Central Bank, in one of its scenarios, has already set the oil price at $35 per barrel and prepared to act in such a situation.
A collapse in resource prices could trigger anything from a hypothetical US-China hot war to a major volcano eruption and blockade of transportation routes—do not assume that members of OPEC and others like it will be able to work out measures to restore the situation in a matter of days. Everyone will survive alone.
Base scenario. Dollar for 64 RUR
Only the first type of sanctions will be applied to Russia. Everything will be relatively good, and the country's economy will simply slow down growth, to about 1.4% per year.
Sad speculators will watch the dollar at 64 rubles, oil prices will also be fixed at this level, and inflation will fluctuate somewhere in the range of 4.4-4.6%
The Central Bank will keep the key rate at 7.5% and no major political and economic shifts should be expected. They will explain from the TV that this is not a recession, but simply a change in the pace of development - why not drive at full speed all the time?
Alternative scenario. Dollar for 73 RUR
This is a combination of sanctions against Russia's public debt with a man-made fall in resource prices. Low prices for hydrocarbons, and there is nothing more to trade, mean a sharp subsidence of state revenues.
As a result, a symbolic increase in GDP by 0.7% and the need for the Central Bank to raise the rate to 8.5%. Inflation will explode to at least 5.7% and the government will have to work hard to keep the Russian ruble from falling below 73 rubles per dollar, and the population from unrest. But he will succeed.
Scenario with aggravating the situation with man-made stress. Dollar for 83 RUR
Everything is very bad, but joyful, because those who started it, the “damned bourgeois”, are also suffering. The fall in oil prices, the loss of investments in Russian public debt and the interference in the work of hundreds of banks will rebound on both the US and Europe.
Yes, the dollar will trade at 83 rubles, and even more at peak volatility, giving rise to bitter thoughts about the future among Russians tortured by 8% inflation
And the key rate will jump to 12%, and exhausted by heavy loans Russian business will fall into a coma, and therefore GDP will become minus, -2.5%. But such a horror is unlikely to surprise anyone, because with a high probability the whole world will plunge into a new global financial crisis.
Looking at the Russian ruble from behind the Belarusian border
After reading 3 forecasts from ACRA, one can come to the conclusion that some of them are optimistic, even in the worst scenario. Meanwhile, none of the Russian and foreign analysts will undertake to predict what will happen if the United States still imposes the second (November) package of sanctions against Russia. Perhaps the situation cannot be predicted now anywhere, even in the United States.
But you can link the 3 forecasts that have appeared from ACRA to the Belarusian ruble, which directly depends on the eastern neighbor:
Purely mathematically, in the case of the implementation of the 3rd scenario Russian currency, in relation to the American one, will depreciate by 30%, and in the most natural way it can drive the dollar exchange rate in Belarus to the levels of 2.7 - 2.9 BYN per 1 dollar.
What else should you know?
What scenario and how it will be implemented, so far no one can say. Perhaps there are fourth and fifth scenarios according to which events will develop. Wait and see!
Many Belarusians believe that an increase in the price of oil entails an inevitable decline in the exchange rate. However, at the moment, the trend is reversed: on October 3, the price of a barrel of oil reached a record high since 2014 at $86, and National currency The US continues to strengthen while the Russian and Belarusian ruble weakens.
What is happening with oil, the Belarusian ruble and currencies, as well as what all these processes are fraught with in the near future, economist Yaroslav Romanchuk told Sputnik.
According to Romanchuk, the price of oil and exchange rates are completely different things. "The price of oil is illustrated by the function of supply and demand. As soon as there are some problems with the supply (in this situation we are talking about Iran), all traders in the oil market react to this, and until additional oil appears, prices will "Steady high. Moreover, 4/5 of the oil reserves are owned by the state, therefore, of course, there is both an element of politics and an element of speculation. "Oil has never been and will not be a purely market commodity in the near foreseeable future," the expert said.
At the same time, both in Russia and Belarus, the elimination of the coupling between oil prices and the ruble exchange rate is quite obvious. It has to do with monetary policy. Central Bank RF and a number of other factors. “There is a very serious problem with this. Therefore, in the case when we are dealing with a not very tight monetary policy of the Central Bank, when more money and, of course, foreign and domestic Russian capital leave Russia, this naturally affects the exchange rate. Hence we have such an unfavorable situation. And the Belarusian ruble, since it is 50% tied to the Russian ruble, naturally follows," Romanchuk explained.
If the geopolitical situation does not change and additional sanctions against Russia are introduced in early December, the situation may worsen further, as restrictions will be introduced on a number of commodity items that are very sensitive for the Russian economy. "In particular, on oil and energy assets. When there is talk in Russia itself about abandoning the dollar, this raises even more, paradoxically, confidence in it. And people get rid of the ruble, which, of course, is not a means of savings, as decades of the history of the Soviet, and then the Russian and Belarusian ruble have shown," the economist noted.
It makes no sense to talk about what the exchange rate will be by the end of this year, since cycles in the economy do not always coincide with annual marks. "Even if sanctions are introduced in December, the main events can only unfold in the first quarter of 2019. I can imagine a scenario where one dollar will cost 80-100 Russian rubles, as well as a situation where it will remain within the +5- 10% of the current rate, especially if oil, as some analysts suggest, reaches $100 per barrel," Romanchuk said.
The specialist emphasized that scenarios for the development of the situation with exchange rates can be completely different, since it is influenced by many speculative non-economic factors. "But what remains unchanged is that neither Russia nor Belarus over these 25 years have neutralized the influence of this powerful energy factor on monetary policy, so we look with bated breath at what the price of oil is. And this, in fact, is a manifestation of being in deep oil dependence or, say, being on this very dangerous oil needle," the economist noted.
According to Romanchuk, the situation will peak in 2019. "Next year, the situation may deteriorate significantly. I think that the key to the exchange rate of the Belarusian and Russian rubles is not in the hands of the Belarusian authorities, but the Russian authorities. I clearly do not expect a scenario of strengthening the Belarusian and Russian rubles with a 99% probability. Everything else can be" , he said.
As for specific figures, an economist can only name them approximately, since the change in the exchange rate depends on many factors, not all of which can be predicted. "If in the Russian Federation, legislation on limiting currency transactions, including individuals, I think, then 100 Russian rubles for one dollar will be flowers. Accordingly, we will have 2.5-3 Belarusian rubles per dollar. This is completely obvious. Moreover, the National Bank of Belarus is still holding on, but, apparently, we will develop in such a state of recession-stagnation," the expert suggested.
The euro will also rise. "European central bank continues the easing policy, accordingly, he is doing everything to make the dollar rise in price. The euro, when introduced, was 1.18 against the dollar, and now it is 1.17. Even if there are some fluctuations up to 1.05, it is not sweeter for Belarusians, since the euro has not become a national currency for us. It must be admitted that the national currency in both Belarus and Russia is the dollar," Romanchuk concluded.
In the last couple of weeks, the dollar and the euro have been growing with varying degrees of success. Yesterday was their course and I got a little anxious about what was going on. Will the dollar be able to return to the levels of the beginning of the year, when its rate fell to 1.95 rubles? Or will the US currency continue to grow and we will see new records? We are talking with Alpari Senior Analyst Vadim Iosub.
Vadim, yesterday the dollar and the euro made us worry, jumping to annual highs. Today, the dollar slowed down growth, and the euro began to decline altogether, can you exhale?
The growth of the dollar will not end soon. It will continue to rise in price, - explains the senior analyst. - It is not necessary that he will grow every day, as he has been doing for the last two and a half weeks. But the direction of growth will remain. This, as we have already said, has nothing to do with what is happening in Belarus, with our economy. There are two external points here: firstly, the growth of the dollar against the vast majority of currencies of countries with emerging markets. Almost no one managed to avoid this.
Second moment. Even if this global trend will slow down, the dollar will grow against the Russian ruble. Because of the sanctions stories, which, apparently, will be tightened. Bills of American financial sanctions are being actively discussed, which include prohibitions on the purchase of government debt and a ban on working with Russian state-owned banks.
It is not clear yet what options will fall into the laws, but something will. That is, the sanctions will be tightened, the dollar will grow against the Russian ruble. And the growth of the dollar against the Russian ruble, due to our link to the Russian economy, will also mean the growth of the dollar against the Belarusian ruble. True, on a smaller scale. That is, there will be some temporary corrections - somewhere in some week the dollar will be able to end with a decline, but the long-term trend is on the rise. I would not wait for the dollar to seriously fall against the Belarusian ruble.
- Are there any forecasts about the maximum exchange rate by the end of the year?
No one can make such predictions. And the problem here is that it is not clear what sanctions will be, it is not clear how the Russian ruble will react to this. And without this, predicting some numbers is an attempt to hit the sky with a finger. None of the predictions are right now.
Tell me, here we have an average exchange rate to the budget for this year at the level of 2.038 Belarusian rubles, but it has already exceeded this mark quite a long time ago. What are the implications for our economy?
Actually, not so strong. Now the rates that are used in budgeting are not exact planned forecasts that need to be achieved, they are just some kind of indicative. Since we have dollar receipts and expenditures in the budget, and the budget is drawn up in rubles, we need some kind of technical forecast in order to convert these currency flows into Belarusian rubles.
On the one hand, the growth of the dollar will mean that dollar imports will rise in price for us - namely dollar imports, not all of them. It will be harder to service dollar loans to enterprises, and to the budget - dollar external debt. At the same time, purely theoretically, in the dollar markets, our products become cheaper, and therefore more competitive in price.
How will the growth of the dollar affect prices and will it affect the government's plans to curb inflation at 6%?
If we talk about the impact on inflation, it is worth recalling the efforts of the National Bank to de-dollarize. It was done just for such cases. You can remember the times 10-15 years ago, when we had, in fact, all prices were in dollars (I'm not talking about apartment cars), stupidly everything on the market - from clothes to groceries - was tied to the dollar. And the growth of the dollar meant an automatic rise in prices by the same amount.
Now we have succeeded in largely decoupling prices from the exchange rate, and therefore the growth of the dollar will not automatically lead to a proportional increase in inflation. In theory, the growth of dollar prices will lead to an increase in those goods that the country buys for dollars. But at the same time, most likely, not all at once and immediately, but with a delay (taking into account logistics, the fact that new batches of goods will be bought, and so on). Relatively speaking, this will happen in a quarter.
The growth of the dollar will not affect those goods that we buy for the Russian ruble. What is produced in Belarus, the growth of the dollar will affect indirectly and partially. There are some costs that are associated with the dollar exchange rate (electricity, fuels and lubricants, etc.), and there are also those that do not react to the growth of the dollar (wages, taxes, and so on). Therefore, there will be some pressure on prices, but you need to understand that the growth of the dollar by 5% or 10% will not mean at all that all prices or prices will increase by the same amount on average.
Understandably, people are afraid. Everyone remembers the rise in prices in 2011 and 2014. Polls National Bank, devaluation expectations of the population are quite strong ...
But even in the same 2011, prices did not rise in direct proportion to the growth of the dollar. The exchange rate for this year has almost tripled, and prices have risen approximately twice. Inflation there did not equal devaluation. Actually, this was the case in late 2014 - early 2015.
- What course is the most adequate for our economy? Is there such a concept in principle?
There is no such concept. There are different actors in the market, and they have different interests. Importers, those who pay debts in dollars, want the dollar to be cheaper, exporters, those who receive salaries pegged to the dollar or issue debts in dollars, want it to be more expensive. In fact, a very important fundamental point - you need to understand that there are no correct, adequate and mathematically verified courses.
Moreover, these serious currency crises of our past years were completely caused by the fact that the authorities tried, firstly, to calculate this adequate rate, and secondly, they tried to adhere to this course. It always ended in currency crises. The meaning of the normal functioning of the market is a few banal things. First, the value of a currency - it's like the cost of potatoes, sausages, anything - depends on supply and demand. Secondly, both demand and supply are constantly changing, and the exchange rate follows them. Accordingly, the rate is determined by the balance of this supply and demand.
If one course is declared adequate and correct, then we will face a shortage of currency in the market, as has happened more than once. That is, it seems that we have announced an adequate rate, but it is impossible to buy currency at this adequate rate. So this situation means that the course is just the same inadequate.
- Could our economy not be subject to this global process, and in what case?
No highly developed country is immune from exchange rate volatility. Take even the two coolest regions - the US and the Eurozone: the dollar and the euro in these territories is not stable. They either rise or fall. During the period since the introduction of the euro, it cost at a minimum 82 US cents, and at a maximum - 1 dollar 60 US cents. That is, even the two strongest currencies in the world, which correspond to the two most strong economies, can fluctuate to each other twice in a short historical period. This is the clearest illustration of the fact that neither the dollar nor the euro is immune from falling.
Theoretically, there are such "stable" currencies, where the rate is fixed. We had this before as well. All over the world, currencies fell and rose, but here there was an island of stability. It all ended with a triple devaluation. That is, you can try to build a stable currency - isolate yourself from the whole world, do not import and export, do not let foreign investors in, do not invest in other countries yourself, rely on your own strength. Such is the Juche to implement. For some time, probably, the exchange rate will be stable. But, for example, the same North Korea, relying on its own forces, has ensured that mainly the Chinese yuan circulates across the country. Nobody wants their own stable North Korean won.
Venezuela tried to rely on its own forces, where the real exchange rate differs from the official one by 30 times. In our country, even in the worst times, the difference between the official and unofficial rates was two times. Iran tried to live in isolation from the whole world, with huge resources and oil reserves, but even there it all ended in a severe devaluation. That is, in reality, it is impossible to be completely independent of the world, as well as to have a fixed exchange rate.
In normal countries, the course will float - this is natural and there is no getting away from it. The course depends on the economy, and this is a living organism. It either rises or falls, imports and exports either rise or fall, inflation changes, and the exchange rate changes depending on this.
