Ria rating. Rosstat: real money incomes of Russians are declining for the fourth year Average per capita money incomes of the population by regions

The top ten regions in terms of per capita income in 2016 included Moscow, Chukotka Aut. county, Sakhalin region, Magadan Region, St. Petersburg, Moscow Region, Kamchatka Territory, Tyumen Region, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk region. In addition to the capitals and the Moscow region, the rest of the regions represent the Far East and Siberia (see rating).

The second ten of the ranking for 2016 included Murmansk and Sverdlovsk region, Republic of Tatarstan, Krasnodar Territory, Arkhangelsk Region, Primorsky Territory, Komi Republic, Nizhny Novgorod Region. Both industrial regions and regions with developed agriculture are represented here: the Krasnodar Territory and the Voronezh Region, in which the share of the shadow economy is relatively large. informal economy favorable for Agriculture regions brings significant income to the population and is taken into account by statistics.

Among the outsiders in terms of average per capita income of the population are the Tomsk region - 50th place, the Oryol region - 52, the Chelyabinsk region - 53, the Vladimir region - 55, the Astrakhan region - 57, the Stavropol Territory - 59, the Orenburg region - 60, the Pskov region - 61, Irkutsk region - 62, Ulyanovsk region - 63, Penza region - 65, Volgograd region - 66, Altai region- 68, Kemerovo region - 69, Kirov region - 70, Kurgan region - 71, Saratov region - 73.

The number of outsiders in terms of average per capita incomes includes subjects with a diverse economy - rich natural resources Siberian regions (Tomsk, Irkutsk, Kemerovo regions, Altai Territory), industrial regions (Chelyabinsk, Vladimir regions), as well as regions with a favorable climate for the development of agriculture - Oryol, Volgograd, Saratov regions.

The average per capita income in the Russian Federation for 2016 amounted to 30,738 rubles. For comparison, assigned to itself by a special federal law additional payment to the basic salary of the deputies of the State Duma is 90 thousand rubles a month. Three times higher than the average per capita income in the Russian Federation. And the salary of State Duma deputies itself is 154.85 thousand rubles, which is far from small compared to the average Russian salary(36709 rubles in 2016).

The average per capita income of Russians at the current exchange rate is about $510. This is hardly, but enough for a modest Russian life. But to create effective savings in profitable financial assets most Russians cannot. Therefore, in the markets valuable papers Russians are not actively involved yet.

At the same time, on the deposits of Russians, according to the Bank of Russia, as of June 1, 2017, in all banking system country, the volume of deposits amounted to 24.4 trillion rubles (including deposits in foreign currency and precious metals), which should be used as effective investments in the Russian economy, as is the case in other countries.

Real disposable cash income Russia's population has been falling for the fifth year in a row - since 2014. In 2018, according to Rosstat, they decreased by another 0.2%. This means that Russians continue to get poorer in real terms. What does it mean in "real terms"? This is when, in fact, the growth of your salary or other income is depreciated by inflation - when goods and services rise in price faster. That is, the nominal (without taking into account) inflation wages, and the quantity and quality of goods that you can buy with it are falling. Often, wages do not grow and the ability to buy various goods falls even more. We have to switch to cheap products and refuse some services.

The dynamics of the decline in real income from 2014 to 2018 is as follows:

Total for 5 years - 11% fall.

From 2000 to 2018, statistics on real income growth in % looks like this:

Rosstat data.

At the end of 2018, the incomes of the population are at the levels of 2009-2010. Growth relative to 1999 is slightly more than 2 times.

Although the figures for falling to 2009 levels look quite dramatic on their own, some economists call 11% too optimistic, referring to the fact that Rosstat often overestimates “paper” numbers.

* The cost is indicated taking into account a 10% discount when paying on-line physical. persons. When paying by cashless payment cost - 30,000 rubles.

ECC "Invest-Project" completed the next wave of statistical research distribution of incomes of the population of Moscow taking into account the results of 2015 and the forecast for 2016. The study was conducted by employees of the Invest-Project ECC according to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, independent experts, recalculated according to the author's mathematical and economic models:

1. in January - May 2008,
2. in January - December 2009,
3. in January - September 2010,
4. in February - March 2011,
5. in March - May 2012,
6. in April - May 2013,
7. in May - June 2014
8. in February - March 2016

Study population groups

The study provides indicative statistics of the income of the population of Moscow by groups:

• by 10 decile groups (by 10% of citizens) and by their derivative groups
  • "the poorest" (10%),
  • "poor" (60%),
  • "middle class" (20%),
  • "rich" (10%);
• 10 one percent subgroups (1% of city dwellers each) of the tenth decile group (10% of the wealthiest city dwellers);
• by 10 0.1% subgroups (by 0.1% of citizens) 1% of the richest citizens.

In fact, this data can be used to determine the target audience and calculate the possible market share for any b2c business in Moscow.

Data relevance

The data reflect the results of 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, the forecast for 2016 is given.

Research methods

The results were obtained on the basis of methods and economic and mathematical models developed by specialists of the Invest-Project ECC for more than ten years, using the initial data of these sources, adjusted for inflation, the value of currencies, the dynamics of the purchasing power of the population, the cost of living, the structure of consumer costs , macroeconomic indicators. A random check on key indicators confirms the accuracy of our forecast for 2008-2015. and allows you to predict the results of 2016 with confidence.

Each income group of the population has its own range of prices for goods and services. Consequently, the degree of market saturation must be determined not only for the market as a whole, but also in relation to each income group.

According to the recommendations of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Russia (MEDT), when studying the income distribution of the region's population, its entire population should be divided into 10 decile groups - 10% of the population in each group in ascending order of income. At the same time, a big problem is to determine the boundaries of the ranges of per capita incomes corresponding to these decile groups in a particular region in a given period and taking into account shadow incomes.

It is important to note that the average per capita income (roubles per month per person) is not understood as the total wages and not the amount of the household's own cash income per person, but the amount actually spent on consumption of all types of income of the household as a whole (wages, pensions, income from the rental of housing and property, various allowances and benefits in monetary terms, dividends, income from capital and intellectual property, shadow and illegal sources of income, etc.) divided by the number of family members living together and leading common household. At the same time, one person living separately is also considered an independent household, even if he has close relatives.

Purpose of the study

Continuous monitoring of the dynamics of average per capita incomes of the population of Moscow for 30 main income groups.

Income of the population of other Russian cities

ECC "Invest-Project" analyzes income distribution any major cities in Russia. The results of the analysis are used in marketing research, for example, to determine the target groups of consumers, their financial capabilities, the size of the average check when entering new markets, etc., as well as when planning various socio-economic indicators of development.

Excerpt from the study:

• average per capita income of the population of Moscow:
• 2008: 44.8 thousand rubles / month / person,
• 2009: 42.3 thousand rubles / month / person,
• 2010: 48.6 thousand rubles / month / person,
• 2011: 54.3 thousand rubles / month / person,
• 2012: 59.4 thousand rub. / month / person ,
• 2013: 66.5 thousand rubles / month / person,
• 2014: 72.7 thousand rubles / month / person,
• 2015: 70.8 thousand rubles / month / person,
• 2016 (forecast): *** thousand rubles / month / person

Distribution of incomes of the population of Moscow in 2016

Against the background of unfavorable macroeconomic factors, the average per capita income of the population of Moscow in 2015 decreased by 12,6 %, reaching in value terms 70,8 thousand roubles. / month / person President of ECC "Invest-Project" Andrey Lumpov: "The oligarchs were made poorer and more modest: in 2015, real incomes of all population groups fell, while the gap between the incomes of the richest 10% and the poorest 10% (decile ratio) continued to shrink, which contributes to reducing tension in society as a whole ". Without taking into account the income of the group of the most affluent citizens, the average per capita income of 99.5% of the population of Moscow in 2015 year amounted to significantly less - *** thousand roubles. / month / person

At the same time, in 2016 we expect a recovery and growth in the average per capita cash income of the population of Moscow by **% compared to the level of 2015.

The data can be widely used in developing the pricing policy of companies, clarifying the development strategy, and determining effective demand for goods or services.

Distribution of incomes of the population of Moscow contains 60 pages, including 29 tables and 11 graphs.

List of tables

Table 1. Income of decile population groups in Moscow, 2008.

Table 2. Income distribution of the 10% wealthiest city dwellers.

Table 3. Income distribution of the 1% wealthiest city dwellers.

Table 4. Income of decile population groups in Moscow in 2009

Table 5. Income distribution of the 10% wealthiest city dwellers.

Table 6. Income distribution of the 1% wealthiest city dwellers.

Table 7. Reduction of nominal income by 10 decile groups in 2008 - 2009

Table 8. Values living wages in Moscow in 2001 - 2008.

Table 9. Income of decile population groups in Moscow in 2010

Table 10. Income distribution of the 10% wealthiest city dwellers.

Table 11. Income distribution of the 1% wealthiest city dwellers, 2010

Table 12. Income of decile population groups in Moscow in 2011

Table 13. Income distribution of the 10% wealthiest city dwellers.

Table 14. Income distribution of the 1% wealthiest city dwellers, 2011

Table 15. Income of decile population groups in Moscow in 2012

Table 16. Income distribution of the top 10% of city dwellers, 2012

Table 17. Income distribution of the top 1% of city dwellers, 2012

Table 18. Income of decile population groups in Moscow in 2013

Table 19. Income distribution of the top 10% of city dwellers, 2013

Table 20. Income distribution of the 1% wealthiest city dwellers, 2013

Table 21. Income of decile population groups in Moscow in 2014

Table 22. Income distribution of the top 10% of city dwellers, 2014

Table 23. Income distribution of the 1% wealthiest city dwellers, 2014

Table 24. Income of decile population groups in Moscow in 2015

Table 25. Income distribution of the 10% wealthiest city dwellers, 2015

Table 26. Income distribution of the 1% wealthiest city dwellers, 2015

Table 27. Income of decile population groups in Moscow in 2016

Table 28. Income distribution of the 10% wealthiest city dwellers, 2016

Table 29. Income distribution of the 1% wealthiest city dwellers, 2016

List of charts

Chart 1. Dynamics of inflation and GDP in Russia, %, 2003-2016.

Chart 2. Income shares of decile population groups in Moscow, 2008.

Graph 3. Income shares of decile groups of the population of Moscow in 2009

Graph 4. Income shares of decile groups of the population of Moscow in 2010

Graph 5. Income shares of decile groups of the population of Moscow in 2011

Graph 6. Income shares of decile groups of the population of Moscow in 2012

Chart 7. Income shares of decile population groups in Moscow in 2013

Chart 8. Income shares of decile groups in Moscow in 2014

Chart 9. Income shares of decile population groups in Moscow in 2015

Graph 10. Income shares of decile groups of the population of Moscow in 2016.

Chart 11. Dynamics of average per capita income of the population of Moscow, 2008-2016, thousand rubles / month / person

Medium size wages in Russia in July amounted to 39,355 rubles, which is 4.6% more in real terms than in July 2016. Such data are contained in the monthly report on the socio-economic situation of the country. In general, for January-July, the growth in size average salary in real terms amounted to 3% compared to the same period in 2016.

GDP is also growing, although not as dynamically as predicted - by only 1.5% in the first half of 2017 instead of the expected 1.7%.

However, real disposable money incomes of the population of the Russian Federation continue to decline: in January-July 2017, they, according to Rosstat, decreased by 1.4% compared to the same period in 2016.

Real disposable money income per capita is income minus mandatory payments, adjusted for inflation.

After real cash incomes of the population stabilized at the level of June 2016 in June, in July they again showed negative dynamics, decreasing by 3.1% compared to the previous month and by 0.9% compared to July 2016.

The real incomes of the population have been declining for the fourth year in a row: in 2014, the decline was 0.7%, in 2015 - 3.2%, in 2016 incomes fell by 5.9% in real terms.

There is nothing surprising in such dynamics, says Sergei, head of the Center for Analysis of Social Programs and Risks of the Social Policy Institute. GDP growth is more than moderate, there are no serious breakthroughs in the economy, wage growth does not exceed 3%, the expert notes.

Besides,

Against the backdrop of a slight, but growth in wages, pensions are declining in real terms, especially after a lump sum payment in January, which, of course, contributes to the decline in the overall indicator.

It should also be taken into account that in the current conditions, some Russians prefer not to pay taxes and go into the shadow sector, so some part of the income is not taken into account, despite the methods available to Rosstat, Smirnov adds.

According to Rosstat, in the first quarter, 13.4 million Russians, or 18.7% of the total number of employees, worked in the shadow sector. Among men, 20.2% work informally, among women - 17.2%.

As Gazeta.Ru wrote earlier, in the first quarter, the volume of shadow wages increased by 20%, to almost 2.4 trillion rubles.

According to the VTsIOM survey, for the third month in a row, low wages and the standard of living in general occupy the first place in the list of problematic topics for Russians - in July they were indicated by 24% of respondents (against 18% in January 2017 and 14% in July 2016). Every fifth (21%) is concerned about the problematic state of the economy.

Another growth in the market plays an important role in the decline in income consumer lending: Citizens, feeling a slight increase in wages, hurried to take loans, increasing their credit burden, the Alor Broker analyst believes.

The share of overdue consumer loans is now officially about 21%, and unofficially - 2 times more, he notes.

The debt of the population on loans to banks continues to grow. According to experts from the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting of the RANEPA, by July 1, 2017, the debt amounted to 11.2 trillion rubles. In 2014-2016, this indicator averaged 10.5-10.7 trillion rubles.

For growth real income among other things, it is necessary that the prices of goods and services grow at least at a slower pace than incomes. Now this is not happening, and there is no economic growth as such, says the head of the Alekhin and Partners marketing agency.

“So far, we are only seeing a rebound from the bottom of the fall. It is not worth talking about stable growth yet,

especially against the backdrop of new sanctions and a difficult geopolitical situation,” he said.

The tax burden, prices, housing and communal services tariffs, gasoline and other energy carriers are growing, Korolev adds.

"Much will depend on course ruble, how it will behave in early autumn: if the dollar starts to rise in price due to the actions of large corporations on foreign exchange market, then the prices for imported goods will grow further, and this will again lead to a decrease in real disposable income, ”the analyst notes.

Doctor economic sciences Sergei Smirnov does not expect a sharp growth in the economy and real incomes of the population.

“There will be a smooth increase, breakthroughs, such as we saw in the 2000s. against the backdrop of rising oil, there will be no,” he notes. Then the chance for real structural reforms was missed, now any transformation turns into a decrease in the social burden of the state, Smirnov adds.

Korolev believes that the situation with low real incomes will persist as long as oil prices remain relatively low. “$50.7 a barrel of Brent is too little to fill the state budget, which means that the state will continue to increase tax burden', the analyst notes.

No grounds for growth

Recovery growth real wages in 2017 gave the authorities hope to overcome the long decline in real incomes and begin to grow. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said in an interview with Russian TV channels that the growth in real wages means that "we have entered a situation where incomes are no longer falling, but growing." He called poverty "one of the most glaring problems" of modern Russian economy.

The reason for the discrepancy between the dynamics of cash income and real wages is that “hidden” wages and other incomes were declining in 2017 faster than observed wages were growing, Tatyana Maleva, director of the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting of the RANEPA, believes. “The reduction in real disposable money incomes of the population with an increase in the observed wages of workers is most likely caused by a redistribution between the observed and non-observed wages in favor of the observed and a reduction in the total volume of the “hidden” wage fund,” Maleva noted in the report “Social Lessons economic crisis”, presented in mid-January at the Gaidar Forum.

The decline in real incomes, traced in state statistics, can be explained by the fact that Rosstat now reports on salaries at large and medium-sized enterprises, which is approximately 40% of all employment, Vladimir Gimpelson, director of the HSE Center for Labor Studies, told RBC. “In the remaining 60%, the dynamics of real wages is still unknown to us,” he said. According to him, economic growth is very small (according to Rosstat data for January-September 2017, GDP growth is 1.6%) and it is not enough to ensure income growth. “I see no special grounds for great hopes,” concluded Gimpelson.

Real income growth in 2018 should not be expected, because the growth in real wages observed in 2017 may stop, says Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank. “In 2018, the dynamics of salaries does not look encouraging, because most of the salaries are indexed to inflation last year, which amounted to 2.5%. There is such a risk that the indexation of wages will approach the level of inflation in 2017, meanwhile, inflation in 2018 may accelerate at least in the second half of the year, and then in real terms, wages in 2018 may not show growth, ”said RBC Orlova.

Hopes were not justified

Rosstat also reported that retail trade in 2017 grew by 1.2% after falling by 4.6% in 2016, in December retail trade growth was 3.1%. industrial production in 2017, which is half the government's forecasts. In December, the industry shrank by 1.5%; in the fourth quarter, industrial production showed a drop of 1.7%. Alfa-Bank lowered its GDP forecast for 2018 to 1%. “We were extremely disappointed by the fact that the recovery of the Russian economy turned out to be short-lived; just one quarter after accelerating economic growth to 2.5% yoy, growth fell into negative territory in November,” Orlova said.