It refers to the number of adults (over 16 years old) of the able-bodied population who have a job. But not all able-bodied population has a job, there are also unemployed people. Unemployment is defined as the size of the adult working-age population who is unemployed and actively looking for one. The total number of employed and unemployed is the labor force.
Various indicators are used to calculate unemployment, but the generally accepted one, including in the International Labor Organization, is. It is defined as the ratio of the total number of unemployed to the labor force, expressed as a percentage.
Unemployment- a socio-economic phenomenon in which part of the labor force is not employed in the production of goods and services.
However, even in this situation, there is some unemployment, called frictional.
Frictional unemployment arises from the dynamism of the labor market.
Some employees have voluntarily decided to change jobs, finding, for example, a more interesting or higher paying job. Others are trying to find a job due to being fired from a previous job. Still others enter the labor market for the first time or re-enter it, moving from the category of economically active population into the opposite category.
Structural unemployment - associated with technological changes in production that change the structure of demand for labor (occurs if an employee fired from one industry cannot get a job in another).
This type of unemployment occurs if the sectoral or territorial structure of demand for labor changes. Over time, important changes occur in the structure of consumer demand and in production technology, which, in turn, change the structure of the overall demand for labor. If the demand for workers in a given profession or in this region falls, unemployment appears. The released workers cannot quickly change their profession and qualifications or change their place of residence and remain unemployed for some time.
In the figure, the reduced demand is represented by the line . In this case, assuming wages do not change instantly, the bar represents the amount of structural unemployment: at the wage rate, there are people who are willing but not able to work. Over time, the equilibrium wage will fall to a level at which only frictional unemployment will again exist.
Many economists do not make a clear distinction between frictional and structural unemployment, because in the case of structural unemployment, laid-off workers begin to look for a new job.
It is important that both types of unemployment constantly exist in the economy. It is impossible to completely destroy them or reduce them to zero. People will look for other jobs, strive to improve their well-being, and firms will look for more skilled workers, striving to maximize profits. That is, in market economy there are constant fluctuations in supply and demand in the labor market.
Since the existence of frictional and structural unemployment is inevitable, economists call their sum natural unemployment.
Natural rate of unemployment- this is its level that corresponds to full employment (includes frictional and structural forms of unemployment), is due to natural causes (staff turnover, migration, demographic reasons), and is not associated with the dynamics of economic growth.
It arises when a fall in aggregate demand for manufactured goods causes a fall in aggregate demand for labor in conditions of real inflexibility. wages downward.
The figure shows the situation of wage rigidity. The proposal is represented by a vertical line for ease of presentation.
If the real wage is above the level corresponding to the equilibrium point , the supply of labor in the market exceeds the demand for it. Firms need fewer workers than the number of people willing to work at a given wage level. On the other hand, firms are unable or unwilling to cut wages for a number of reasons.
Minimum Wage Law
According to this law, wages cannot be set below a certain threshold value. For the majority of employees, this minimum has no practical significance, but there are some groups of workers (unskilled and inexperienced workers, adolescents) for whom established minimum raises wages above the equilibrium point, which reduces firms' demand for such labor and increases unemployment.
Although only a fraction of the country's workforce is organized into unions, they prefer layoffs of workers over wage cuts. The reason is as follows. Temporary wage cuts cut wages for all workers, while layoffs affect in most cases only the most recently hired workers, who make up only a small fraction of union members. In this way, unions achieve high wages, sacrificing the employment of a small number of workers - union members. A collective bargaining agreement between a firm and a trade union can also cause unemployment. Typically, it consists of long term, and if the agreed wage exceeds the equilibrium wage, then the firm will prefer to hire fewer workers at a high price.
Efficient salary
Efficiency wage theories assume that high wages increase worker productivity and reduce employee turnover in the firm. This policy allows to attract and retain highly qualified specialists, improve the quality of work and the interest of employees. The reduction in wages reduces the motivation to work and encourages the most capable workers to look for another job.
Psychological aspect
Obviously, there is no single wage rate for all firms in the market. In large firms, wages are usually higher. However, employees of large firms sometimes prefer to remain unemployed than to go to low-paid jobs. According to some economists, this behavior is caused by the self-esteem of workers, their desire for a certain position in society.
institutional unemployment - arises due to the limited workforce and employers in up-to-date information about vacancies and the desire of workers.
The level of unemployment benefits also affects the labor market, creating a situation where an individual who has the opportunity to get a low-paid job prefers to sit on unemployment benefits.
This type of unemployment occurs when the labor market does not function effectively.
As in other markets, there is limited information. Individuals may simply be unaware of existing vacancies, or firms may be unaware of an employee's desire for a proposed position. Another institutional factor is unemployment benefit rate. If the level of benefits is high enough, then a situation called the unemployment trap occurs. Its essence lies in the fact that an individual who has the opportunity to get a low-paid job will prefer to receive benefits and not work at all. As a result, unemployment rises, and society suffers losses not only because of the fact that it is produced at a level below potential, but also because of the need to pay inflated unemployment benefits.
Unemployment also includes its duration.
Duration of unemploymentDefined as the number of months a person has spent without a job.
As a rule, most people quickly find a job, and unemployment for them seems to be a short-term phenomenon. In this case, we can assume that this is frictional unemployment, and it is inevitable.
On the other hand, there are people who cannot find a job for months. They are called the long-term unemployed. Such people most acutely feel the burden of unemployment and often, despairing of finding a job, leave the group.
In accordance with the standards of the International Labor Organization (ILO), unemployed citizens can include persons at the age that is set to measure the economic activity of the population. These persons must meet the following conditions:
Also, students, pensioners and the disabled are counted as unemployed if these persons have been looking for work and are ready to start it.
The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed in the relevant age group to the economically active population (of a certain age group). This indicator is calculated as a percentage.
The unemployment rate formula is calculated as the ratio of the share of the unemployed to the total labor force (%):
u=U/L * 100%
Here u is the unemployment rate,
U is the number of unemployed,
L is the number of employed and unemployed (labor force)
There are several types of unemployment, for each of which the calculation of the unemployment rate formula has its own characteristics:
UBstr \u003d Qstr / HR * 100%
Here UBstr is the level of structural unemployment,
Qstr - the number of structural unemployed;
UBfr \u003d Q / HR * 100%
Here UBfr is the level of frictional unemployment,
Qfr - the number of frictional unemployed;
NRV - the number of employed and unemployed (labor force).
UBset = Q / HR * 100%
Here UBSec is the seasonal unemployment rate,
Qsez - the number of seasonal unemployed;
NRV - the number of employed and unemployed (labor force).
UB cycle = Q / HR * 100%
Here UBtsik is the level of cyclical unemployment,
Qcycle is the number of cyclical unemployed;
NRV - the number of employed and unemployed (labor force).
In order to carry out a deeper analysis of unemployment, it is not enough to know the methods of calculation for the corresponding types of unemployment.
The concept of the natural rate of unemployment is often used. Unemployment rate formula:
UBest \u003d UB str + UB fr
Here UBest is the natural rate of unemployment,
UB str is the level of structural unemployment,
UBFR is the level of frictional unemployment.
EXAMPLE 1
If the actual unemployment rate is above the natural rate, the economy is in recession, and if the actual rate is below the natural rate, inflation is expected to rise significantly (because the economy is overheating).
So what is the natural rate of unemployment and why is it not equal to zero? The natural rate of unemployment. natural rate of unemploymentis the unemployment rate that corresponds to potential GDP or, equivalently, long-term aggregate demand. In other words, the natural rate of unemployment is the rate of unemployment when the economy neither overheats nor falls into recession - the combination of frictional and structural unemployment.
For this reason, the natural rate of unemployment is the rate, where cyclical unemployment is zero. Note, however, that this does not mean that the natural rate of unemployment is zero, as there is frictional and structural unemployment.
How is natural unemployment calculated?
The overall unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the total number of unemployed people (U) by the total number of people in the labor force (LF). The labor force consists of adults of working age who want to work.
U ÷ LF = General unemployment rate
(FU + SU) ÷ LF = Natural Unemployment Rate
To calculate the natural rate, first add the frictional unemployed (FU) to the structural unemployed (SU) and then divide that number by the total labor force.
Types of unemployment
There are 3 types of unemployment:
Structural unemployment
frictional unemployment
Cyclical unemployment
The first two together are“ natural” , and the latter is the factor that causes inflation to either accelerate or slow down.
1. Structural unemployment is unemployment, which is due to the regulation of the minimum salary, trade unions, mismatch of skills of workers with the needs of employers or social benefits. The reason why this unemployment is considered“ natural” is that, that these barriers will always exist. For example, consider the minimum wage. The minimum wage set the price of labor above value. So firms decide not to hire workers. The situation will not change in the long term.
2. Frictional unemployment is unemployment resulting from job changes, moving, finding a suitable position. Usually this is not a negative phenomenon, since this factor has a temporary significance. However, since there is always a certain share of the labor market looking for new job, this unemployment will persist in the long run.
The natural rate of unemployment in the United States
Source: Fed
3. Cyclical unemployment is unemployment that is not part of the natural rate of unemployment. It is driven by a cycle of growth and decline., that is, either short-term fluctuations in aggregate demand or supply. In the long run, its equilibrium value tends to zero.
Cyclical unemployment occurs during a downturn in the business cycle when demand for goods and services declines and companies respond by cutting production and laying off workers. During an economic downturn, the number of workers exceeds the number of available jobs. The result is unemployment.
Economists use the cyclical unemployment rate to assess the health of the entire economy or its individual sectors. Cyclical unemployment can be short-term, lasting a few weeks for some people, or long term. It all depends on the extent of the economic downturn and which industries are most affected. Central bank economists typically focus on addressing the root causes of economic downturns rather than correcting cyclical unemployment.
At high cyclical unemployment we are in a situation of imbalance. And when the economy is in disequilibrium, it will eventually return to equilibrium.. As this happens, the price level will change, and a change in the price level will lead to inflation. Thus, inflation will accelerate to equilibrium.
Thus, since frictional and structural unemployment will always exist, there will always be a natural rate of unemployment.
conclusions
A long-term stable unemployment rate, which is characterized by a stable healthy change in wages and inflation. Attempts to shift the economy to more low level unemployment (rather than its natural rate) through fiscal policy or easing monetary policy turn out to be unsuccessful, as market expectations from this kind of stimulation will lead to an acceleration of inflation and the growth rate of wages. Excessively high inflation is unprofitable Central Bank. Therefore, subsequently, the regulator will have to take inflation under control by tightening monetary policy or reducing public spending, which will bring the unemployment rate back to its previous natural rate.
The natural rate of unemployment may change in response to changes in the structure of the labor force. On a graph, the natural rate of unemployment is usually marked by a vertical Phillips curve.
Often on TV we hear news about an increase or decrease in unemployment in a particular country or city. But does each of us understand what is meant? After all, the real state of affairs can be understood only by correctly realizing the significance of such an indicator as the calculation formula given below will contribute to a better understanding of the issue.
Like it or not, but in any state there is a certain percentage of people who do not have a job at the moment. Even in the richest countries there is unemployment. There are a number of reasons for this.
Any most developed country and the economies of the world find a place for unemployment. Perhaps, only with the idea of capitalism did the Soviet people believe that in the near future everyone would have a job and goods in stores would no longer be sold for money.
Unemployment can be due to a number of reasons. They can be divided into several groups:
Economic;
political;
Social;
Personal.
The economic group of reasons can include those that are associated with the specifics of the development of the economy of a particular region (country). If a production capacity states are at zero, the economy is collapsing, enterprises are stopping, it is natural that full employment of the population is out of the question. In this case, people simply have nowhere to work.
Political reasons are based on any government measures to regulate a particular sector of the economy. Sometimes politicians, when solving international issues, forget that they influence the lives of citizens within the country. Someone gets a job because of this, and someone loses.
The social group includes the causes of unemployment, independent of the economic or political vector of development. They are more influenced by prestige and fashion. For example, there may be 1,000 vacancies for the position of a cleaner, but because of their beliefs about the possibility of finding a more prestigious and better job, people remain unemployed at the moment.
The personal group of causes includes those that are associated with the individual qualities of people. After all, there are those who do not want to work at all, live on welfare, use alcoholic beverages and drugs, and it is simply impossible to force them to do anything for society in the existing legal field.
To calculate the correct statistics for unemployed people, a special unemployment formula is used. The unemployment rate, which can be calculated using it, determines the degree of unemployment of the economically active population. We will consider it further.
The following should also be noted. You can calculate the unemployment rate in different ways. The calculation formula in each method will be different. But mostly in statistics they use the unemployment rate
It is determined by the ratio of the total number of unemployed to the number of economically active population.
The unemployed are part of the labor force that can be employed in the production of goods or services, but for some reason are not involved in these processes.
Structural.
Friction.
Seasonal.
Its calculation formula is as follows:
Be \u003d Bstr + Bfr.
What does this indicator say? It is calculated when they want to know what the overall unemployment rate will be if the condition of full employment is met.
That is, if everyone who wanted could find a job. Accordingly, it can be seen that the formula of which is given above assumes the presence in the economy of only structural and frictional types of unemployment.
We can say that this indicator shows the situation that has developed in the labor market in ideal conditions when the entire economically active population is employed in the production of goods or services.
Another main indicator is actual unemployment. It is calculated as the sum of all types of unemployment listed above, with the exception of natural. That is, the sum of structural, frictional, seasonal and cyclic - this will be the actual unemployment. The formula looks like this:
Bf \u003d Bstr + Bfr + Bs + Bts.
Actual unemployment essentially reflects the real state of affairs in the labor market. It can be greater than, equal to, or less than the natural rate of unemployment. The calculation formula shows that this indicator affects absolutely all types of unemployment, which means:
The actual level will be higher than natural unemployment if the economy is experiencing a slowdown in development.
The situation will be inversely proportional to the first if the economy picks up pace and jobs appear faster than people are being fired from their old jobs.
In fact, with a full understanding of the causes, types and factors, the unemployment calculation formula helps to give a real assessment of the employment of the population and the work of the government to provide decent jobs.
The unemployment rate has always characterized the state of the economy, and thanks to this indicator, one can draw a conclusion about where to strive further and what needs to be corrected in the economic vector of development.
To the unemployed, in relation to the standards of the International Labor Organization (ILO), includes persons of the age established for measuring the economic activity of the population, who in the period under review simultaneously met the following criteria:
Schoolchildren, students, pensioners and the disabled are counted as unemployed if they were looking for work and were ready to start it.
To the unemployed registered in public institutions employment services, include able-bodied citizens who do not have a job and earnings (labor income), living in the territory Russian Federation registered with the employment service at the place of residence in order to find a suitable job, looking for a job and ready to start it.
Unemployment rate— the ratio of the number of unemployed in a certain age group to the number of the corresponding age group, %.
Unemployment rate is the share of the unemployed in the total.
It is measured as a percentage and is calculated using the formula:
The unemployment rate (the ratio of the total number of unemployed to the economically active population, %) is shown in fig. one.
Rice. 1. Dynamics of unemployment in Russia from 1992 to 2008
The minimum unemployment rate for the analyzed period was in 1992 - 5.2%. The unemployment rate reached its maximum value in 1998 - 13.2%. By 2007, the unemployment rate fell to 6.1%, and in 2008 the unemployment rate increased to 6.3%. It should be noted that the problem of unemployment is most acute not in large regions as a whole, but at the local level: in small and medium-sized cities with a concentration of military and light industry, at unfinished construction sites large enterprises, in the mining settlements of the Far North, "closed" zones, etc.
In a sociological study of unemployment, it is necessary to take into account its structure, in which they distinguish (Fig. 2):
The form of unemployment determines the economic behavior of the individual and his level of individual and social mobility in employment and professions.
Rice. 2. Structure of unemployment
In 1999 (that is, after the 1998 crisis), the total number of unemployed reached its maximum for the entire period of the economic reforms and amounted to 9.1 million (Table 1). In the second quarter of 1999, the negative trend towards an increase in the total number of unemployed in Russia was overcome. By 2008, it had dropped to 4.6 million people; At the same time, there were approximately 1.6 million officially registered unemployed.
The threat of job loss, unemployment in society since 1992 is the most stable among other types of threats to the security of the individual in Russia.
According to sociological research by VTsIOM, the threat of rising unemployment in Russian society noted: 24% of the population in 1996 (February), 27% in 2000 (November), 28% in 2003 (October), 14% in 2007
One of features of unemployment in Russia- its gender structure. The proportion of women among the registered unemployed in 2006 was 65%, and in a number of northern regions - 70-80%.
The financial and economic crisis has led to increased tender competition in the labor market and increased discrimination against women in the registered market.
Table 1. Dynamics of changes in the structure of the Russian unemployed in 1992-2009
Regarding unemployment in Russia, we can say the following:
Among the status unemployed, the majority are women, among the non-status - men.
Unemployment is acquiring a gender-symmetrical age. Thus, among men, the average age of the unemployed is 34.2 years, among women - 34.1 years. In general, the average age of the unemployed in Russian society is slowly decreasing: from 34.7 years in 2001 to 34.1 years in 2006.
The structure of Russian unemployment has also changed in terms of educational level, but the unemployed remain the most educated among the unemployed capitalist countries (Table 2). The educational asymmetry in the gender structure of the unemployed indicates that women predominate among the Russian unemployed with a high educational status, while men are the main low-skilled part of the unemployed population.
Table 2. Gender and educational structure of the Russian unemployed in 2009, %
Features of the marital status of the Russian unemployed are visible from Table. 3. Most of the registered (status) unemployed are married women. There are 1.5 times more widowed and divorced among unemployed women than among men. Among the unemployed, there are significantly more unmarried men than unmarried women.
Table 3. Gender and family characteristics of the Russian unemployed at the end of 2009, %
Highest specific gravity among the unemployed by age accounted for young people aged 20-24 years (21.8%). Here the gender feature does not play a significant role (22.3% among men, 21.2% among women). The general dynamics of the unemployed by age in the gender groups is shown in Fig. 4.3.
Rice. Fig. 3. Age and gender structure of unemployed Russians: 1 — men; 2-women
The group of the highest risk and the threat of becoming unemployed are young people aged 20 to 29 years. The highest growth of unemployment is characteristic of rural youth (2 times higher than in 1992).
Table 1 shows how the two components of the object of economic sociology, "employed" and "unemployed", are statistically related to each other in the category of "economically active population". four.
AT financial and banking sector Before the financial crisis of 1998, the labor market was very dynamic and expanded rapidly, but after the financial crisis it contracted sharply and was seriously deformed, which was accompanied by a reduction in the number of employees (especially in the banking sector) and increased downward social mobility of specialists.
Social negative consequences of unemployment associated with the transition of an individual from one status state (employed) to another (unemployed) manifest themselves: in the form of increased depression, a decrease in the level of social optimism, a break in established communication ties, a change in value orientations, a transition to a marginal state. The main thing is that the individual loses material base his development, the level and quality of his life are falling.
Table 4. The structure of the economically active population of Russia in 2008, million people
Duration of unemployment(or the duration of the job search) is an important socio-psychological indicator and represents the time during which a person who has lost his job is looking for a new job opportunity, using any means for this.
The most widely used forms of job search are:
The average duration of the search for a new job was: 4.4 months. in 1992; 9.7 months in 1999; 7.7 months in 2008. This is a rather long period, which is explained by competition in the labor and employment market, as well as its limitations, especially in the regions.
