If you look at China, there is a very big bewilderment: where do the 1.5 billion people who supposedly live in China live and what do they eat? The twenty largest urban centers give a population of just over 200 million people ...
Today, patriotic circles often mention the desire of the Anglo-Saxon world to drag us into a war with China. Very similar to that. In this regard, it is often heard from various domestic experts that the Chinese are about to throw hats on us, take all of Siberia and other catastrophic forecasts for themselves. Could this be?
I served 3 years in the Far East in the border troops, studied patriotism on the example of the heroes of Damansky, however, as it seems to me, the devil is not so terrible ...
As you know, China, in addition to being the world's factory, is also famous for its huge population of about 1.347 billion people (some experts do not stand on ceremony and talk about 1.5 billion - Russian 145 million people as a statistical error) , and the average density is about 140 people per 1 sq. km. km) and a fairly decent territory (3rd in the world after Russia and Canada - 9.56 million sq. km).
There is a story that either an orderly, or some other assistant to Suvorov, writing down a report to the capital about the next victory, according to Alexander Vasilyevich, was surprised at the inflated numbers of killed enemy soldiers. To which, Suvorov allegedly said: “Why feel sorry for their adversaries!”
The Chinese, followed by the Indians, the Indonesians, and indeed the whole of Asia, have clearly grasped that the population of their countries is the same strategic weapon as bombs and missiles.
No one can reliably say what the actual demographic situation is in Asia, in this case, in China. All data is estimated, at best, information from the Chinese themselves ( last census in 2000).
Surprisingly, despite ongoing recent years Despite the government's policy of limiting the birth rate (one family - one child), the population is still growing at 12 million people a year, according to experts, due to the huge base (i.e. initial) figure.
I'm certainly not a demographer, but 2+2=4. If you have 100 people: two died in a year, one was born, a year later 99. If 100 million or 1 billion, and the ratio of births and deaths is negative, then what is the difference in the initial figure, the result will be negative. The Chinese and demographic experts are paradoxically positive!
A very confusing question. For example, in the monograph by Korotaev, Malkov, Khalturin "The Historical Macrodynamics of China" there is an interesting table:
1845 - 430 million;
1870 - 350;
1890 - 380;
1920 - 430;
1940 - 430,
1945 - 490.
I came across an old atlas, which said that in 1939, i.e. before the 2nd World War, there were 350 million people in China. One does not need to be an expert to see the huge discrepancies and the absence of any coherent system in the behavior of the Chinese population.
Either a drop of 80 million in 25 years, then an increase of 50 million in 30 years, then no change in 20 years. The main thing is that the initial figure of 430 million is taken absolutely from the ceiling, who considered their adversaries. But the fact seems to be obvious - for 95 years from 1845 to 1940 the number of Chinese has not changed, as it was, and remains.
But over the next 72 years (taking into account disastrous wars, hunger and poverty, more than 20 years of containment policy) growth of almost a billion!
For example, everyone knows that the USSR lost 27 million people in the Great Patriotic War, but few people know that the second country in terms of human losses is China - 20 million people. Some experts (perhaps like our Chubais) speak of 45 million. And despite such monstrous losses and all sorts of hardships from 1940 to 1945, a huge increase of 60 million! Moreover, in addition to the World War, there was also a civil one in China, and 23 million people now live in Taiwan, who were considered Chinese in the 40th year.
However, as a result of the formation of the PRC in 1949, the population of the PRC has already reached 550 million people. For 4 years, we do not count those who fled to Taiwan, and growth is simply a galloping 60 million people. Then there was the Cultural Revolution with countless repressions and the eating of sparrows in the famine years, and the population grew faster and faster.
And yet, we almost believe and count on our knees. 430 in 1940. This is a lot, of course. 430 million. Approximately half of the woman (in Asia, women are even less, but let). About 200. Of these, grandmothers and girls - another 2/3. Women give birth approximately from 15 to 40 = 25 years, and live beyond 70. We get 70 million. We believe that there are no childless and lesbians in China, + allowance for my demographic unprofessionalism = 70 million childbearing women in 1940.
How many children did these young ladies have to give birth to, so that in 9 years there would be 490 million Chinese, a 15% increase? War, devastation, no medicine, the Japanese are atrocious ... According to science, if my memory serves me right, in order not to simply reduce the population, you need to give birth to 3-3.5. And an additional 90 million for 70 million women in labor, another 1.2 people. Physically, for 9 years, 4-5 children is not easy, but possible, but ....
The Internet writes that according to the 1953 census, 594 million, and in 1949, not 490, but 549 million. Forty-five million in 4 years. In 13 years, the population has grown from 430 to 594, by 164 million, more than a third. Thus, 70 million women in 13 years gave birth to 3.5 each for reproduction + about 2.5 (163:70) = 6.
Someone will object, in Russia, too, the boom was at the turn of the 19th-20th centuries. But in Russia at that time, the Japanese did not massacre 20 million people + 20 million did not flee to Taiwan. And, returning to the table, what prevented the Chinese from increasing by at least 10 million in the previous 100 years? Immediately, in 13 years, 164 million, as if from a bush, into hunger and war. Yes, I almost forgot, such trifles as the Korean War, where about 150 thousand more childbearing Chinese men were killed, are completely ridiculous to consider. In the following decades, the Chinese bred and multiplied simply beyond measure.
I think they just draw their Chinese out of thin air, like the Fed dollars. Nobody argues, there are a lot of Chinese, as well as Indians and Indonesians, there are still plenty of Nigerians, Iranians, Pakistanis. But many many strife. And the Indians - well done, picked up the initiative in time.
China is big, but... Take a look at the administrative map of China. There are so-called autonomous regions (Ary) in China. There are 5 of them, but now we are talking about 3: Xinjiang Uighur, Inner Mongolia and Tibetan.
These three ARs occupy respectively 1.66 million sq. km, 1.19 million sq. km. km and 1.22 million sq. km, only about 4 million sq. km, almost half of the territory of China! Live in these territories, respectively, 19.6 million people, 23.8 million and 2.74 million, a total of about 46 million people, about 3% of the population of China. Of course, these areas are not the most wonderful for living (mountains, deserts, steppes), but no worse than Outer Mongolia or our Tuva or, for example, Kyrgyzstan or Kazakhstan.
Most Chinese live between the Yellow River and the Yangtze and on the warm coast (South and Southeast). Speaking of Mongolia. If Inner Mongolia is larger in territory than France and Germany combined, then Mongolia-Outer Mongolia is almost 1.5 times larger than Inner Mongolia = 1.56 million square meters. km. There is practically no population of 2.7 million people (the density is 1.7 people per sq. km, in the PRC, let me remind you, 140, including the above-named Ares, where the density is respectively: 12, 20 and 2 people / sq. km; in Mesopotamia lives under 300 people per square kilometer, cockroaches and only, according to statistics).
The resources, for which the Chinese allegedly go to Siberia, at the risk of running into Russian atomic bombs, in Mongolia, and in Kazakhstan the same, are full, but there are no bombs. Not only that, why not move the idea of reunification-unification of the Mongolian people under the wing of the Celestial Empire?
There are 150-200 thousand Chinese in Russia. Total! The total population of the Khabarovsk, Primorsky Territories, the Amur Region and the Jewish Autonomous Region (about 5 million) cannot be compared, of course, with the border province of Heilongjiang (38 million), but still.
However, the Mongols are sleeping peacefully (the Chinese and Russians in Mongolia combined 0.1% of the population - about 2 thousand somewhere), the Kazakhs are also not very tense.
It seems to me that Burma, with its 50 million population and a fairly large territory of 678 thousand square meters, needs to be afraid. km. The same South China billion hangs over it, it is in Myanmar that the dictatorial regime is, they are the villains of the Chinese minority (1.5 million !! people) oppress. And, most importantly, the equator is near, the sea coast is huge and warm, warm.
But even the Burmese comrades, as they say, do not worry, and we are in a panic.
Well, okay, the Chinese communists are afraid of the Americans to put things in order in Taiwanese affairs, but Vietnam frankly runs up, shouting that it is not afraid, it constantly reminds of the last scuffle, Laos and Cambodia undertook to supervise, the newly minted Big Brother. China and Vietnam are arguing about the oil islands, and so is the world.
Weird Chinese. The people are already sitting on each other's heads, and they are not even developing their vast territories, not to mention weak neighbors such as Burma and Mongolia. But Buryatia will definitely be attacked, the 150,000th expeditionary force has already been sent out, half of them got stuck in Moscow for some reason, someone in warm Vladivostok, but this is nonsense, at the first call - to Siberia.
Well, perhaps that's all, as a first approximation.
The world's population is rapidly declining. This reduction can be estimated at least by the real population of China. Victor Mekhov wrote a very interesting article in which he argues that the population of China is 3-4 times smaller than we were taught to think (there is a very interesting video there). Surely the same can be said about India, and about other obviously poor countries, with an unaffordable "large" population ...
Checking this is easy enough: you need to go to Wikipedia and sum up the population of the 20 largest cities in China. And it will turn out to be an impressive number of about 230 million people (taking into account the population of the districts). Where do the rest of the people live? Where does the rest of the billion live? AT countryside? Do you live in cottages? Where do they grow their food then? In the mountains of Tibet, which occupy almost half of the country? But they need a lot of food, if you believe that 1 billion 340 million people live in China!
Let's look further. Duropedia reports that in 2010, China produced 546 million tons of grain, despite the fact that the sown area in China is 155.7 million hectares. And to ensure the normal nutrition of the population, the country needs to grow an average of about 1 ton of grain per year per person. Part of this grain is used to feed livestock, and part is used to make bread and other needs. So China is clearly not providing itself with grain, if you believe that it has such large population. Or it provides if the population there is 3 times less than it is considered.
By the way, this can be easily verified by the US indicators. And immediately everything will be clear and understandable! Look: the US harvests an average of about 60 million tons of wheat per year from an area of about 20 million hectares. In addition, 334 million tons of corn are harvested there from 37.8 million hectares, and 91.47 million tons of soybeans from an area of 30.9 million hectares. Thus, the total grain harvest is about 485 million tons from an area of about 89 million hectares. And the US population is only about 300 million people! Surplus cereals are exported.
This immediately shows that the shortage of grain production in China is about 800 million tons per year, which is practically nowhere to buy, if you believe that the population is 1.4 billion people. And if you do not believe in this fairy tale, then everything falls into place, and the population of China should be no more than 500 million people!
And one more clue: Wikipedia reports that the proportion of the urban population in 2011 was 51.27% for the first time, which also confirms the hypothesis that the real population of China does not exceed 500 million people.
The same is happening with India! Let's count the population of the 20 largest cities in India. The answer will surprise you very much: it is only about 75 million people. 75 million people! And where do the other billion two hundred million live? The territory of the country is a little more than 3 million square meters. km. Apparently, they live in nature with a density of about 400 people per 1 sq. km. km.
The population density in India is twice that of Germany. But in Germany - continuous cities throughout the territory. And in India, about 5% of the population lives in cities. For comparison: in Russia, the share of the urban population is 73%, with a population density of 8.56 people / sq. km. But in the United States, the share of the urban population is 81.4%, with a population density of 34 people / sq. km. km.
Can official information in India to be true? Of course not! The population density in rural areas is always only a few people per sq. km. km, i.e. 100 times lower than in India. And this is a clear confirmation that the population in India is 5-10 times less than what is written in official sources.
In addition, according to Wikipedia, almost 70% of Indians live in rural areas, so our estimated 75 million urban residents make up about 30% of India's population. Consequently, the total population of this proportion will be about 250 million people, which is much more true than the fairy tale about a billion.
Data on the number of countries of the world on the planet can be found on official resources via the Internet, and they are provided by leading analysts of specialized world organizations. Given this nuance, it is worth noting that this information is quite accurate and with their help you can see the whole picture of the population on the globe.
A natural question arises: how is the analysis of this kind of data carried out. Statistics are compiled by means of a population census, accounting for registration information and using other available information sources. They can be used as civil and legal acts. The maximum accuracy and reliability of the data is achieved by mathematical calculation of the average life expectancy for each individual state. This indicator is also estimated.
Among other things, one should not miss the fact that the population on earth is constantly undergoing transformation: countries can appear, disappear or unite. In some territories, it is simply not possible to carry out an accurate count of citizens. And this is due to the process of their growth and migration of the population. Until now, such a phenomenon as the emergence and disappearance of new uncontrolled territories has been observed on the globe.
For example, in Brazil there are entire settlements of unregistered citizens. The same can be said about Bhutan.
Not less than important indicator is the population density. This value represents the number of inhabitants per 1 sq. km. km. The calculation of the population density of each country in the world is made with the exception of uninhabited territories, as well as minus vast expanses of water. In addition to the general population density, its individual indicators can be used, both for rural and urban residents.
Given the above facts, it should be borne in mind that the population on the globe is unevenly distributed. The average density of each country differs quite significantly from each other. In addition, within the states themselves there are many deserted territories, or densely populated cities, in which one square. km may account for several hundred people.
The most densely populated territories of South and East Asia, as well as countries Western Europe, while in the Arctic, in deserts, tropics and highlands, it is not at all dense. absolutely independent of their population density. Exploring the uneven distribution of the population, it is advisable to highlight the following statistics: 7% of the globe occupies 70% of the total number of people on the planet.
At the same time, the eastern part of the globe is occupied by 80% of the world's population.
The main criterion that acts as an indicator of the distribution of people is population density. The average value of this indicator is currently 40 million people per square meter. km. This indicator can vary and is directly dependent on the location of the area. In some areas, its value may be 2 thousand people per square meter. km, and on others - 1 person per sq. km.
It is advisable to single out countries with the lowest population density:
Greenland is one of the countries with the lowest population density
As well as countries with low density:
There are countries with medium density population, among them are:
In addition, there are areas on the globe that are classified as territories unsuitable for life.
As a rule, they represent an area with extreme conditions. These lands account for approximately 15% of all land.
As for Russia, it belongs to the category of low-populated states, despite the fact that its territory is quite large. Average population density in Russia is 1 person per 1 sq. km. km.
It is worth noting that the world is constantly undergoing changes, in which there is a decrease in either the birth rate or the death rate. This state of affairs indicates that the density and size of the population will soon be kept at about the same level.
China is the largest country in the world by population.
The number of people currently in the state is 1.349 billion people.
Next comes India with a population of 1.22 billion, followed by the United States of America with 316.6 million people. The next place in terms of number belongs to Indonesia: today 251.1 million citizens live in the country.
Next comes Brazil with a population of 201 million, then Pakistan with 193.2 million citizens, Nigeria with 174.5 million, and Bangladesh with 163.6 million citizens. Then Russia, with a population of 146 million people, and finally Japan, whose population is 127.2 million.
For a more detailed understanding of the issue, it is advisable to study the statistics regarding the smallest countries in the world in terms of population. In this scenario, it will suffice to consider the gradation of several independent states, which also include associated countries. The number of people in countries, in descending order, is as follows:
The smallest country in terms of population is considered to be the Vatican.
At the moment, only 836 people live in the country.
The world population table looks like this.
No. p / p | Countries | Population |
1. | 1 343 238 909 | |
2. | India | 1 205 073 400 |
3. | USA | 313 847 420 |
4. | Indonesia | 248 700 000 |
5. | Brazil | 199 322 300 |
6. | Pakistan | 189 300 000 |
7. | Nigeria | 170 124 640 |
8. | Bangladesh | 161 079 600 |
9. | Russia | 142 500 770 |
10. | Japan | 127 122 000 |
11. | 115 075 406 | |
12. | Philippines | 102 999 802 |
13. | Vietnam | 91 189 778 |
14. | Ethiopia | 91 400 558 |
15. | Egypt | 83 700 000 |
16. | Germany | 81 299 001 |
17. | Turkey | 79 698 090 |
18. | Iran | 78 980 090 |
19. | Congo | 74 000 000 |
18. | Thailand | 66 987 101 |
19. | France | 65 805 000 |
20. | Great Britain | 63 097 789 |
21. | Italy | 61 250 001 |
22. | Myanmar | 61 215 988 |
23. | Korea | 48 859 895 |
24. | South Africa | 48 859 877 |
25. | Spain | 47 037 898 |
26. | Tanzania | 46 911 998 |
27. | Colombia | 45 240 000 |
28. | Ukraine | 44 849 987 |
29. | Kenya | 43 009 875 |
30. | Argentina | 42 149 898 |
31. | Poland | 38 414 897 |
32. | Algeria | 37 369 189 |
33. | Canada | 34 298 188 |
34. | Sudan | 34 198 987 |
35. | Uganda | 33 639 974 |
36. | Morocco | 32 299 279 |
37. | Iraq | 31 130 115 |
38. | Afghanistan | 30 420 899 |
39. | Nepal | 29 889 898 |
40. | Peru | 29 548 849 |
41. | Malaysia | 29 178 878 |
42. | Uzbekistan | 28 393 997 |
43. | Venezuela | 28 048 000 |
44. | Saudi Arabia | 26 529 957 |
45. | Yemen | 24 771 797 |
46. | Ghana | 24 651 978 |
47. | DPRK | 24 590 000 |
48. | Mozambique | 23 509 989 |
49. | Taiwan | 23 234 897 |
50. | Syria | 22 530 578 |
51. | Australia | 22 015 497 |
52. | Madagascar | 22 004 989 |
53. | Ivory Coast | 21 952 188 |
54. | Romania | 21 850 000 |
55. | Sri Lanka | 21 479 987 |
56. | Cameroon | 20 128 987 |
57. | Angola | 18 056 069 |
58. | Kazakhstan | 17 519 897 |
59. | Burkina Faso | 17 274 987 |
60. | Chile | 17 068 100 |
61. | Netherlands | 16 729 987 |
62. | Niger | 16 339 898 |
63. | Malawi | 16 319 887 |
64. | Mali | 15 495 021 |
65. | Ecuador | 15 219 899 |
66. | Cambodia | 14 961 000 |
67. | Guatemala | 14 100 000 |
68. | Zambia | 13 815 898 |
69. | Senegal | 12 970 100 |
70. | Zimbabwe | 12 618 979 |
71. | Rwanda | 11 688 988 |
72. | Cuba | 11 075 199 |
73. | Chad | 10 974 850 |
74. | Guinea | 10 884 898 |
75. | Portugal | 10 782 399 |
76. | Greece | 10 759 978 |
77. | Tunisia | 10 732 890 |
78. | South Sudan | 10 630 100 |
79. | Burundi | 10 548 879 |
80. | Belgium | 10 438 400 |
81. | Bolivia | 10 289 007 |
82. | Czech | 10 178 100 |
83. | Dominican Republic | 10 087 997 |
84. | Somalia | 10 084 949 |
85. | Hungary | 9 949 879 |
86. | Haiti | 9 801 597 |
87. | Belarus | 9 642 987 |
88. | Benin | 9 597 998 |
87. | Azerbaijan | 9 494 100 |
88. | Sweden | 9 101 988 |
89. | Honduras | 8 295 689 |
90. | Austria | 8 220 011 |
91. | Switzerland | 7 920 998 |
92. | Tajikistan | 7 768 378 |
93. | Israel | 7 590 749 |
94. | Serbia | 7 275 985 |
95. | Hong Kong | 7 152 819 |
96. | Bulgaria | 7 036 899 |
97. | Togo | 6 961 050 |
98. | Laos | 6 585 987 |
99. | Paraguay | 6 541 589 |
100. | Jordan | 6 508 890 |
101. | Papua New Guinea | 6 310 090 |
102. | 6 090 599 | |
103. | Eritrea | 6 085 999 |
104. | Nicaragua | 5 730 000 |
105. | Libya | 5 613 379 |
106. | Denmark | 5 543 399 |
107. | Kyrgyzstan | 5 496 699 |
108. | Sierra Leone | 5 485 988 |
109. | Slovakia | 5 480 998 |
110. | Singapore | 5 354 397 |
111. | UAE | 5 314 400 |
112. | Finland | 5 259 998 |
113. | Central African Republic | 5 056 998 |
114. | Turkmenistan | 5 054 819 |
115. | Ireland | 4 722 019 |
116. | Norway | 4 707 300 |
117. | Costa Rica | 4 634 899 |
118. | Georgia | 456999 |
119. | Croatia | 4 480 039 |
120. | Congo | 4 365 987 |
121. | New Zealand | 4 328 000 |
122. | Lebanon | 4 140 279 |
123. | Liberia | 3 887 890 |
124. | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3 879 289 |
125. | Puerto Rico | 3 690 919 |
126. | Moldova | 3 656 900 |
127. | Lithuania | 3 525 699 |
128. | Panama | 3 510 100 |
129. | Mauritania | 3 359 099 |
130. | Uruguay | 3 316 330 |
131. | Mongolia | 3 179 917 |
132. | Oman | 3 090 050 |
133. | Albania | 3 002 497 |
134. | Armenia | 2 957 500 |
135. | Jamaica | 2 888 997 |
136. | Kuwait | 2 650 002 |
137. | West Bank | 2 619 987 |
138. | Latvia | 2 200 580 |
139. | Namibia | 2 159 928 |
140. | Botswana | 2 100 020 |
141. | Macedonia | 2 079 898 |
142. | Slovenia | 1 997 000 |
143. | Qatar | 1 950 987 |
144. | Lesotho | 1 929 500 |
145. | Gambia | 1 841 000 |
146. | Kosovo | 1 838 320 |
147. | Gaza Strip | 1 700 989 |
148. | Guinea-Bissau | 1 630 001 |
149. | Gabon | 1 607 979 |
150. | Swaziland | 1 387 001 |
151. | Mauritius | 1 312 100 |
152. | Estonia | 1 274 020 |
153. | Bahrain | 1 250 010 |
154. | East Timor | 1 226 400 |
155. | Cyprus | 1 130 010 |
156. | Fiji | 889 557 |
157. | Djibouti | 774 400 |
158. | Guyana | 740 998 |
159. | Comoros | 737 300 |
160. | Butane | 716 879 |
161. | Equatorial Guinea | 685 988 |
162. | Montenegro | 657 410 |
163. | Solomon islands | 583 699 |
164. | Macau | 577 997 |
165. | Suriname | 560 129 |
166. | Cape Verde | 523 570 |
167. | West Sahara | 522 989 |
168. | Luxembourg | 509 100 |
169. | Malta | 409 798 |
170. | Brunei | 408 775 |
171. | Maldives | 394 398 |
172. | Belize | 327 720 |
173. | Bahamas | 316 179 |
174. | Iceland | 313 201 |
175. | Barbados | 287 729 |
176. | French polynesia | 274 498 |
177. | New Caledonia | 260 159 |
178. | Vanuatu | 256 166 |
179. | Samoa | 194 319 |
180. | Sao Tome and Principe | 183 169 |
181. | Saint Lucia | 162 200 |
182. | Guam | 159 897 |
183. | Netherlands Antilles | 145 828 |
184. | Grenada | 109 001 |
185. | Aruba | 107 624 |
186. | micronesia | 106 500 |
187. | Tonga | 106 200 |
188. | US Virgin Islands | 105 269 |
189. | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 103 499 |
190. | Kiribati | 101 988 |
191. | Jersey | 94 950 |
192. | Seychelles | 90 018 |
193. | Antigua and Barbuda | 89 020 |
194. | Isle Of Man | 85 419 |
195. | Andorra | 85 100 |
196. | Dominica | 73 130 |
197. | Bermuda | 69 079 |
198. | Marshall Islands | 68 500 |
199. | guernsey | 65 338 |
200. | 57 700 | |
201. | American Samoa | 54 950 |
202. | Cayman islands | 52 558 |
203. | Northern Mariana Islands | 51 400 |
204. | Saint Kitts and Nevis | 50 690 |
205. | Faroe islands | 49 590 |
206. | Turks and Caicos | 46 320 |
207. | Sint Maarten (Netherlands) | 39 100 |
208. | Liechtenstein | 36 690 |
209. | San Marino | 32 200 |
210. | British Virgin Islands | 31 100 |
211. | France | 30 910 |
212. | Monaco | 30 498 |
213. | Gibraltar | 29 048 |
214. | Palau | 21 041 |
215. | Dhekelia and Akroiti | 15 699 |
216. | Wallis and Futuna | 15 420 |
217. | England | 15 390 |
218. | Cook Islands | 10 800 |
219. | Tuvalu | 10 598 |
220. | Nauru | 9 400 |
221. | Saint Helena | 7 730 |
222. | Saint Barthelemy | 7 329 |
223. | Montserrat | 5 158 |
224. | Falkland (Malvinas) Islands | 3 139 |
225. | Norfolk Island | 2 200 |
226. | Svalbard | 1 969 |
227. | Christmas Island | 1 487 |
228. | Tokelau | 1 370 |
229. | Niue | 1 271 |
230. | 840 | |
231. | coconut islands | 589 |
232. | Pitcairn Islands | 47 |
The Berlin Institute for Population and Development published a comprehensive report in German on the state of demography in Russia. The title - "The Disappearing World Power" - contains the main conclusion. Experts note that back in 1960, Russia (excluding other republics of the USSR) ranked fourth in the world in terms of population. In 2010, it dropped to ninth, behind Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nigeria. And by the middle of the 21st century, our country, according to German demographers, will lose another 25 million people, and will cease to be among the ten most populated countries in the world.
However, not only Russia is having a hard time, an unenviable fate awaits other countries as well. Experts from the SKOLKOVO Institute for Emerging Market Research (SIEMS), comparing the situation in the BRIC countries, came to the conclusion that in the next 20 years, only India has a chance to rise economically due to a favorable demographic situation.
Thomas Malthus knew that the prosperity of a country is directly related to demography. In 1798, he published the book Essay on the Principle of Population (“Experience on the law of population”), where he outlined the apocalyptic theory that uncontrolled population growth should eventually lead to famine on Earth. This idea has been alternately supported and refuted for two hundred years. Finally, in the "noughties" of the 21st century, economists recognized that Malthus was right - in the sense that the population size still matters for the prosperity of the state.
It's about population structure. If young people predominate among citizens, the country has a unique chance to convert “demographic dividends” into economic growth. Unique because fertility is a cyclical thing. In the history of every nation, the moments when the majority of the population is of working age are one or two and counted. And if the moment (it is called the demographic transition) is missed, the large working-age generation becomes old, becomes a huge collective dependent, and pulls the economy to the bottom.
In the 20th century, there were many examples when the demographic transition turned the run-down countries into the engines of the world economy. Thus, according to SIEMS experts, the Japanese “economic miracle” after 1945 is largely due to a decrease in the relative number of dependents (adults who would have become old people died in the war, and a large pre-war generation took their place).
The same can be said about the impressive economic growth of the four "Asian tigers" - South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong. In 1950, women in these countries had six children each. Today, less than two. As a result, from 1965 to 1990, the working-age population of Tigers grew 4 times faster than the number of young and old dependents.
An example from the same series is Ireland. In 1979, contraception was legalized there, which immediately brought down the birth rate - from 22 babies per 1,000 population in 1980 to 13 babies per 1,000 in 1994. The relative number of dependents (we recall that these are not only pensioners, but also children) has sharply decreased because of this. As a result, thanks to reforms aimed at creating a free market, Ireland during this period became the country with the highest rates of economic growth in Europe.
While we are talking about countries that did not miss their chance to use the demographic shift (“shift”, note, some of them were artificially created).
Now let's turn to the BRIC countries. In 2008, these economies accounted for a quarter of global GDP and 42% of the world's population. SIEMS experts tried to answer which of the four countries have a chance to break through on the wave of "demographic shift" into a bright economic future.
So, great and mighty China. SIEMS rightly believes that the Chinese have benefited enormously from their favorable demographic situation over the past 30 years. In the late 1970s, when reforms aimed at creating a free market began in the country, dependents (old and young) made up 70% of the total population. By 2009, this figure had fallen to 39%. And unlike Brazil, China was able to take advantage of the “shift” – between 1980 and 2008, per capita income rose from $250 to $6,020.
The main reason for this breakthrough is a sharp drop in the birth rate. In 1979, the Chinese authorities allowed each family to have only one child (usually 3-6 children). According to the results of 2007, such a policy has reduced the birth rate by 400 million people over the past 30 years. Reducing the number of dependents ideally contributed to economic growth.
China is still a relatively young country today (the average age of the population is 34 years). 70% of Chinese people are between the ages of 16 and 64. The workforce is 800 million, double that of the United States. Despite a birth rate of less than two, China's population continues to grow and will peak at 1.46 billion around 2032.
But from now on, according to SIEMS experts, the good times for China will end. Already, China's population is aging faster than any other country in the world. By 2050, 32% of Chinese people are expected to be over 60 years old. In absolute terms, this is 459 million pensioners. Starting around 2017, the working-age population of China will decline, and by 2050 it will decrease by 115 million - this is almost the population of all of today's Russia.
According to Jonathan Anderson of UBS Bank, this means that China has almost exhausted its demographic resources. For years, a growing working-age population provided Chinese manufacturers with a source of cheap labor. Cheap labor played a decisive role in the creation of China's export machine. But a couple more decades - and everything will be different.
Experts argue only about one thing: whether China will be able to get rich before the population ages. China's aging pattern is similar to that of Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. The only difference is that in China this happens when the country is still poor. Perhaps that is why the Chinese will not be able to get rich.
And here is another leading BRIC country - India - to use demographic shift just to come. India now has a population of approximately 1.2 billion, 175 million fewer than China's. But it is growing twice as fast, as a result, India will overtake China in terms of population by about 2031. Moreover, population growth in India will continue until 2050, when it will reach 1.66 billion (in China - 1.42 billion). That is, modern India is like China of the 1970s, at the start of reforms.
So, in the "zero" in India, the birth rate fell from 3.1 to 2.7 children per family, as a result, the number of dependents decreased from 61% to 55% of the total number of Indians. Moreover, the best demographic times for India are ahead. One third of India's population today are children under 14, half of the population is under 24, and only 5% is over 65. This means that by 2025 the number of dependents among Indians will decrease to 48% (37% young people, 11% - the elderly), and the working-age population will increase by 230 million people (now it is a considerable 750 million).
By the way, to reduce the birth rate in India, there is a government program of voluntary male sterilization. For participation in it, a reward is due - a car, a motorcycle, a TV and a blender or a bicycle. Such a difference in incentive gifts is due to the different solvency of the departments. In total, in India in 2010, about 5 million male sterilizations and about 1 million females were performed. In total, from the 1960s to the present day, about 10% of men have been sterilized in this country.
With such a serious approach to reducing the birth rate, India may well soar upwards - unless, of course, its authorities break firewood in the economy, otherwise India will repeat the fate of Brazil.
Another BRIC country, Brazil, is a classic example of lost demographic opportunities. The number of dependents in Brazil has been steadily declining over the past 40 years, from 85% in 1970 to 49% in 2009. However, this did not lead to an acceleration of the economy. After the explosive short growth in the 1960s-1970s, the Brazilian economy began to chronically lag behind. While the country still has a relatively young population (median age 27.5 years) and a record low of 48% by 2020, Brazil has a low developing country the level of savings and investment is only 18% of GDP (for comparison, in China it is 40%).
Against this background, Russia looks pale. Although for Russian history in general, periods of significant population decline are typical (World War I and Civil Wars, collectivization and repression, WWII), the current decline, according to SIEMS experts, is especially sharp, prolonged and practically irreversible. According to forecasts, by 2050, only 109 million of the current 140 million people will remain in Russia. In addition, people from the generation of the 1990s, when the birth rate fell catastrophically, will replenish the labor force, while the generation born at the peak of fertility will retire.
As in China, the period of declining dependency numbers is coming to an end in Russia. He reached minimum level- 39% - in 2010, and now it is increasing, and this process will last another 40 years. As a result, by the middle of the century the number of dependents will be critical 70%. Russia's working-age population is projected to fall by 15 million between 2010 and 2025, and then another 20 million by mid-century.
The only comforting news for Russia in the context of the other BRIC countries is that we have the highest starting GDP per capita ($15,600, 50% higher and 2.5 times more than China). But who and how will manage this money in the future is a huge philosophical question.
There is one significant demographic characteristics characteristic of all BRIC countries. And it is not positive. The BRIC countries will face the problem of an aging population before they enter the ranks of rich countries. Whereas industrial countries had enough time to accumulate wealth and provide high level income of the population before the start of the aging process, then in the BRIC countries the process of population aging will begin much earlier, preventing the population of these countries from providing a high level of income. For example, China's population aging process has characteristics similar to those of Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan today. The essential difference is that in China this process is taking place at a time when the country as a whole is still relatively poor. According to World Bank, the average annual income per capita in China is about 6 thousand dollars (2008, purchasing power parity). In the US in 1990, when the median age population coincided with today's indicators of China, the same indicator of average per capita income was four times higher than the current indicator of China, amounting to 23 thousand dollars.
India is one of the most unique countries in our world. Many religions and cultures are intricately intertwined here. Its history is incredibly rich and has more than 5000 years.
The life of Indians is full of contrasts: wealth coexists with poverty, suffering - with happiness. They believe that God is in the heart of every person. The traditional greeting "namaste" means "I salute the God within you." We have a lot to learn from the Indians. After all, they know how to enjoy every moment of this restless and beautiful life.
The name of the country comes from the word "ind". This is a derivative of "singh", which is translated from Hindi and Urdu as "river". Its area is 3,287,590 km2. The capital is New Delhi. Of the largest cities, Mumba (the cultural center of the country), Calcutta, Madras (now Chennai), Bangalore stand out.
The official language is Hindi, but apart from it, 17 other languages have this status. Currency - rupee.
A huge state has long been in the lead in terms of population. India is second only to China in this. The government has been making fruitless attempts to control the skyrocketing birth rate for a long time.
The reasons for this lie in the fact that most Indians live in extremely disadvantaged conditions and have a low level of education. Early marriages promote active childbearing. At the same time, most often Indian men simply do not have the financial ability to buy contraceptives or pay for abortions for their chosen ones. In addition, religious beliefs do not allow many to do so. Therefore, the number of children every year continues to increase. While China has set strict standards: "one family - one child."
Today, the average Indian family has an average of four children. At the same time, a third of the population lives below the poverty line, which is facilitated by growing unemployment. In a country with such a high population growth rate, lack of work is an understandable problem.
The government even tries to promote voluntary sterilization, but there is little enthusiasm among the people for such an idea.
What is the gender composition of India's population? There are many more men here than women. This is due to the fact that girls are valued less than boys. Due to selective abortions, 816 girls are born per 1000 boys, and every year the situation worsens. Indians think practical: a girl, growing up, goes to her husband's family. She can no longer take care of her parents and help them. In addition, a dowry must be given for a girl when she decides to marry. Therefore, upon learning that a woman is expecting a girl, the family often tries to get rid of her before the birth.
In 2010, according to a UN report, India was missing an average of 43 million women. And this figure can vary from state to state. For example, in New Delhi and Haryana, the difference in sex ratio is even greater. And this trend is spreading to other states.
This structure of the population of India is the cause of regular rape. Previously, the country's government did not focus on this problem, but a terrible incident changed everything. A 23-year-old girl was raped by a group of people on a bus traveling through the streets of New Delhi. She died without waiting for an ambulance. This case has forced the government to take notice of forced sexual contact, which is so common in the country. The punishment for rape is now more severe. However, this did not lead to a significant decline in such cases.
So, let's go directly to the population in India. In 2013, in numbers, it amounted to 1,271,544,257 people. In 2016, this figure increased to 1,336,191,444, taking into account the following factors:
As of December 2016, there are 689,910,921 men and 646,280,523 women in India. The difference in the sex ratio in the country is now less noticeable than a few years ago.
During the year, the population of India increased by 16,822,650 people. At the end of 2017, it amounted to 353,014,094 people. natural growth population positive - 17,370,489 children. But there are far fewer immigrants than emigrants. That is, the number of those who left prevails over the number of those who arrived in the country for permanent place residence.
In terms of population density, India ranks 18th in the world. It is surpassed in this indicator by many states. Monaco is the leader among them - the smallest European principality. The list of leaders includes other mini-states: the Vatican, Nauru, San Marino. However, given that India is in 18th place out of 193, the percentage of population density is huge and amounts to 405 people. on the square meter(as of January 2017). For comparison: in Russia this figure is 8.36.
However, India's population density is very high. Delhi and Mumbai are among the ten most populous cities in the world. Delhi, the capital of India, which is one of the oldest Asian cities, is home to 23 million people (as of 2015), with an area of 1,484 km². Delhi is expected to overtake Tokyo as the world's largest city by 2030. It is noteworthy that Tokyo, with an area of 2,188 km², has a little more than 9 million people.
Mumbai is somewhat inferior to the capital in the number of inhabitants - 22,800,000 people.
The age structure of India's population is as follows:
The average age of the inhabitants of the country is 27 years. The average life expectancy is 68 years.
The rather high mortality rate (9,778,073 people per year as of 2016) is due to the low level of healthcare in the country.
Wherein age pyramid India has a growing type that is inherent in developing countries.
The ethnic composition of the population of India is very diverse. However, it can be divided into 3 large groups:
1. Indo-Aryans (72%) - one of the two Aryan branches. Its representatives are mostly concentrated in India. This is approximately 900 million people.
2. Dravidians (25%). Indian race, living mainly in the south of the country. Speaks languages of the Dravidian family.
3. Other nationalities (3%).
Today, Hindustanis, Telugu, Marathas, Bengalis, Tamils, Gujaratis, Kannars, Punjabis are distinguished among the largest peoples of India.
India contains all world religions: Hinduism, Christianity and Islam. Hindus are the largest group (80% of the population). Hinduism divides the population into castes. Each of them has its own traditions and customs, which are passed down from generation to generation. Today, according to the country's constitution, all citizens are equal among themselves. At the same time, ancient customs continue to live in the minds of the population even now.
Islam (14% of Indians) was brought into the country by Arab merchants. Most Muslims live in northern India. In the states of Jammu and Kashmir, two-thirds of the inhabitants practice Islam.
Christianity (2.3% of the population) is distributed mostly in the northeast of India. Most often, these are wealthy sections of society - businessmen, landowners, people of free professions.
In fourth place is Sikhism. It is practiced by most of the people of Punjab. Sikhism as a religion originated in the 15th century. Guru (teacher) Nanak became its founder.
In fifth place is Buddhism (0.8% of the population). Once Buddhism was the leading religion of the country. Everyone knows that India is his homeland. But Hinduism and Islam have practically supplanted it.
Finally, Jainism (0.4% of Indians). An ancient religion that originated in the VI-V centuries BC. It is practiced mainly by the middle and upper strata of society. The main tenets of Jainism are truth, the absence of violence, the rejection of earthly goods.
At the same time, it is worth noting that the number of Muslims in India is growing. The share of representatives of other religions either decreases or remains stable.
Indian languages belong to the following families:
India has 18 official languages. Among them are Hindi, English, Konkani, Nepali, Santhali, etc. Hindi is understood by almost the entire population of the country. It is native to 20% of the inhabitants. Muslims living in the north and south of India speak Urdu. Almost every state has its own regional dialect, which often does not have an official status. Of the many regional languages, only 22 are officially registered.
Some of the Indian languages do not have a written language. But at the same time, the number of their carriers can exceed several million.
English in India has a special status. It is official and is used in the judicial and legislative system.
In the next year, the number of inhabitants of India and China will increase so much that it will amount to 40% of the population of the entire planet. In the near future, most Indians will move to cities, given the fact that today two-thirds of the country's inhabitants live in villages. But urbanization will only complicate the country's problems. Indeed, back in 2014, Delhi had the worst air quality in the world. Unfavorable living conditions increase the mortality rate, experts say.
India is believed to be second only to China in terms of population. But in April 2017, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Yi Fuxian, conducted a study in which he found out that India is the most large country by the number of inhabitants. The reason for the error was an incorrect calculation of the population of China. As it turned out, China has 90 million fewer inhabitants. And Fuxian believes that the current Chinese policy ("one child per family") has caused significant damage to the country's population.
India's leading industry is Agriculture. Given that most Indians live in rural areas, this is not surprising. However, due to underdeveloped infrastructure, agriculture is carried out in the traditional way. This slows things down a bit. The average harvest in India is only 30-50% of the world's.
The main crops are rice, wheat, millet. The inhabitants of the country provide many countries with tea, cotton, spices.
Animal husbandry is of secondary importance. For Indians, many animals, especially cows, are sacred. Therefore, they are used only as a draft force.
India has huge deposits of iron ore. It develops industries aimed at the extraction of raw materials and fuel, as well as the electric power industry and heavy engineering.
Most Indians live below the poverty line. Experts believe that if the population in India continues to increase, it will lead to the devastation of the country. Up to the struggle for food and water.
The rather low level of education of the population (slightly less than half of it is illiterate) worsens the situation. However, the government does not yet understand this. Today, the standard of living of the population of India is very modest. Perhaps in the future the situation will change.
Today, India and China occupy the leading positions in the world in terms of population. And these numbers are growing every year. China is in first place. The current population is 1,394,943,000 people.
In India, today the population is 1,357,669,000 people. But according to UN experts, these figures will change in 8-10 years. India will take the first place in terms of population, thereby overtaking the Celestial Empire.
According to the United Nations Department of Statistics, the total area of China is 9,598,089 square kilometers. A number of geographical features of the country do not allow the Chinese to settle evenly. There are sparsely populated areas, and there are regions where there are more than several thousand people per square kilometer of population. What is the reason for this? In the first place - the geographical location and climatic conditions. The Chinese settle where there is fertile land and water. For this reason, the western and northern parts of the territory are sparsely populated. The Gobi Desert, Takla Makan and Tibet do not attract the Chinese. These provinces occupy more than 50% of China's territory, and are only 6% populated. Fertile areas are located along the two main rivers of China, the Zhujiang and Yangtze, as well as the North China Plain. Here the climate is mild, conducive to the active development of agriculture, there is water, and therefore there is no threat of drought. The second reason is uneven economic development regions of China. The Chinese try to settle in large cities. Thus, more than 24 million inhabitants live in the port city of Shanghai.
More than 21 million Chinese live in Beijing, the capital of China. This is due to the fact that it is easier for city dwellers to find work in such large metropolitan areas. Large and densely populated cities in China also include the cities of Harbin, Tianjin and Guangzhou. Over the past century, China's population has increased despite the government's "One Family, One Child" program. Moreover, this program has led to the fact that the people of the Celestial Empire are rapidly aging. Also, there was a gender bias. This is related to the fact that early dates pregnancy, Chinese women, having learned on ultrasound about the sex of the child (girl), had abortions. Today there are 120 men for every 100 women. According to forecasts, in 2019 the number of the Celestial Empire will increase by 7,230,686 people, and at the end of the year it will be 1,408,526,449 people. The population growth rate will be 19,810 people per day.
The rapid growth of the Indian population forced the government to take a number of measures. So India was one of the first to adopt a birth control program. The program has been operating since 1951. Married couples were offered a monetary reward for voluntary sterilization. But the program did not lead to the expected results, and it was decided in 1976 that sterilization should be carried out forcibly if there were more than two children in the family. Today, the average Indian family has an average of four children. Early marriages also contributed to the growth of the Indian population. It was decided to increase the age at which young people could marry from 18 (girls) and 23 (boys) years. The gender bias towards the male population occurred for the same reason as in China, because of abortion. The number of men exceeds the number of women by several times. The Indian population, like the population of China, tends to major cities such as Delhi. More than 23 million inhabitants live in the capital today, this is with an area of 1,484 km². By 2030, this number could rise. The population of Delhi will reach the population of the big city in the world, the Japanese city of Tokyo. The city of Mumbai is not far behind the capital of India. More than 22 million people live in it.
In Kolkata, this figure is over 13 million. Madras was hospitably received by 6 million Indians, and Bombay became home to more than 15 million Indian residents. But the demographic situation in India is strikingly different from that in China. The reason is the socio-economic characteristics of the two countries. The population policy of the Indian government has failed. This was influenced by the monstrous illiteracy of the population, early marriages and strict observance of many religious dogmas. Today, China still ranks first in terms of population. But the Celestial Empire is rapidly developing economically, the standard of living of the Chinese is rising. And the increase in numbers is small, but decreasing. India today does not control population growth, and it is increasing every year. In 2013, the figure was 1,271,544,257 people. Already in 2016, this figure increased to 1,336,191,444 people. The population density per square meter in India today is 2.5 times higher than in China. And this difference will only grow. On average, there are about 140 people per "Chinese" square meter, and more than 360 people per "Indian" square meter. To be fair, India ranks 18th in terms of population density. And many states have surpassed it in this indicator. But at the same time, the density of India is still very high. The capital Delhi and the Indian city of Mumbai are among the ten most populous cities in the world.
In the coming years, the number of residents of India and China will increase. Their population will be 40% of the population of the entire planet. Which of the two countries will come first? Today's data suggests that India is inferior to China in terms of numbers and is only in second place. But in April 2017, a professor at the University of Wisconsin at Madison Y. Fuxian conducted research. During which, it was found out that India still leads in terms of the number of inhabitants. Mistakes were made in counting Chinese residents. As it turned out, there are 90 million fewer inhabitants in China. But the professor's research has not yet been taken into account. It is officially recognized that China is the leader in terms of the number of inhabitants and takes the first position in the table. It is only clear that the population of India is steadily growing. Nevertheless, experts note that there is a positive trend. To date, population growth has slightly decreased. If this continues to happen, then in general, in the future, the population growth of India will decrease.
And maybe even by the end of the 21st century, a reverse trend will occur, and frightening forecasts that the country's population will exceed the threshold of 2 billion people will not come true. And what about the great and mighty China? SIEMS specialists believe that China has practically exhausted its demographic resources. By 2050, 32% of the Chinese will be over 60 years old. In real numbers, this is 459 million pensioners. Since 2017, the number of able-bodied Chinese has been declining. And by 2050 it will reach 115 million people. And this means that China will no longer be able to rely on cheap labor, due to which the development of the Chinese economy takes place. Cheap labor played a decisive role in creating China's exports, but a couple more decades, and the situation will change for the worse. There is only hope that China will have time to get rich before the population of the country becomes disabled. Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea are aging in the same way. But there is a main difference from them, China is still poor and it is unlikely that it will be able to get rich.