The types of forecasts are distinguished according to various criteria depending on the goals, objectives, objects, subjects, problems, nature, lead time, methods, etc.
The problem-target criterion is fundamental: what is the forecast for? According to this criterion, two types of forecasts are distinguished. : search engines(research, trend, genetic) and normative(program, target).
Search (research) forecast It is forecasting from the present to the future. The content of the search forecast is to determine the possible states of the object of forecasting in the future, without human intervention. Such a forecast answers the question: what is most likely to happen if the existing managerial influence is maintained.
The search forecast is based on information about the trends in the development of the forecasting object, on the relationship between indicators and factors, obtained as a result of a retrospective analysis.
Since this approach is based on analytical research, it is also called scientific, and research, and descriptive(descriptive). genetic this forecast is called because it involves the development of the object of forecasting in accordance with its "genetics" - the potential inherent in the object itself.
Search forecasting is divided into two types:
1) traditional or extrapolative;
2) innovative or alternative.
Traditional the method assumes that the development of the object takes place and will take place in accordance with the existing trend. In this case, the forecast can be a simple projection (extrapolation) of the past into the future. If, at the same time, this forecast is not based on an analysis of the influence of various factors on development indicators (on a multivariate analysis), but takes into account the dependence of indicators only on time (builds indicators trends), then such a forecast is called “naive”. It is mainly used to predict macroeconomic indicators (GNP, NNP, NI, inflation, employment) in stable economic systems.
For example, to describe the future, regression equations are used, obtained on the basis of information about the development of an object in the past (retrospective analysis) without changing the coefficients of efficiency of factors (regression coefficients). If the input-output balance is used, then the technological coefficients remain unchanged.
Innovative approach proceeds from the fact that the development of the object occurs spasmodically and intermittently, that the object of forecasting can be influenced by new factors. This approach is called alternative by some authors, since it assumes that there are many options for the future development of the object.
Normative forecast It is forecasting from the future to the present. The content of the normative forecast is to determine the ways and timing of achieving the possible states of the object of forecasting in the future, taken as a goal.
Normative forecasting is in some respects very similar to normative planning, programming, and engineering. But the latter imply a directive establishment of measures for the implementation of certain norms, while normative forecasting is a probabilistic description of possible, alternative ways to achieve these norms.
Sometimes normative forecasting is called target, normative-target, program.
In normative forecasting, the desired final state of the development of the object is established, then the measures that can ensure this state are determined, the necessary financial, material and labor resources. The goals set are often based on norms, for example, the achievement of specified levels of well-being and quality of life of the population, per capita income, average wages. The calculation of the necessary resources in the absence of retrospective information on the progressive rates of their use can also be made according to the predicted (desired) rates.
For example, various versions of the search forecast give a decrease in the unemployment rate over ten years from 10 to 7%. Forecasters, using the methods of normative forecasting, set a goal (standard) - to reduce the unemployment rate to 5%. Calculations show that this requires the creation of a certain number of jobs in the public and private sectors, the more active development of small business, the service sector, and so on.
A comprehensive forecast can be built on the basis of search and normative forecasting.
According to the size of the confidence interval interval and point forecasts.
Interval forecast— prediction, the result of which is presented as a confidence interval of the characteristics of the forecast object for a given probability of making the forecast.
Point forecast— forecast, the result of which is presented as a single value of the characteristic of the object of forecasting without specifying a confidence interval.
According to the lead period - the period of time for which the forecast is calculated - operational (current), short-term, medium-term, long-term and long-term forecasts.
In socio-economic forecasting, the following classification is accepted:
- Operational forecast— forecast with a lead time of up to 1 month.
- Short term forecast— forecast with a lead time of 1 month to 1 year.
- Medium-term forecast— forecast with a lead time of 1 to 5 years.
- Long term forecast — forecast with a lead time of 5 to 15 years.
- Long-range forecast— forecast with a lead period of more than 15 years.
Operational the forecast, as a rule, is designed for the future, during which no significant changes in the object of forecasting are expected - neither quantitative nor qualitative. Short- for the prospect of only quantitative changes, long-term - not only quantitative, but mostly qualitative .
medium term the forecast covers the prospect between the short and long term with the predominance of quantitative changes over qualitative ones, long-term- a prospect when such significant qualitative changes are expected that, in essence, one can speak only of the most general prospects for the development of nature and society.
Operational forecasts contain, as a rule, detailed quantitative assessments, short-term - general quantitative, medium-term - quantitative-qualitative, long-term - qualitative-quantitative and long-term - general qualitative assessments.
Forecasts differ on the object of forecasting. The most significant methodological differences between natural sciences and technical(in the narrow sense) and social(in the broad sense of the word) forecasts.
The main difference between them is that the objects of natural science and technical forecasts develop according to laws independent of the will and actions of man, while the objects of social forecasts are created and changed in the course of human activity.
Social and natural science and technical forecasts (in the narrow sense) differ significantly in the ratio of predictive and predictive aspects. Social forecasts themselves program the behavior of the object, i.e. have predictive power.
When predicting objects in the natural or technical sciences - for example, when predicting the weather or predicting the strength of materials - the programming (preindicative) power of the forecast is close to zero. In most cases, the forecast and the decision made on the basis of it cannot change the behavior of the forecast object (for example, the behavior of celestial bodies).
In social forecasting, the predictive power of the forecast is very high. The fact is that the object of the forecast here are people endowed with consciousness and will. The very knowledge of the forecast can change the behavior of these people - and, therefore, the object of the forecast. As a result, there is a "self-destruction" or "self-fulfillment" of the forecast. The effect of changing the behavior of the forecast object under the influence of knowledge of the forecast information is called the "Oedipus effect"
In its turn natural sciences forecasts are divided into:
Objects of scientific and technical forecasts narrowly (or engineering), are the states of materials and the mode of operation of mechanisms, machines, devices, electronic equipment, all phenomena of the technosphere. The predictive power of such forecasts is also low; in this sense, they are close to natural science forecasts.
However, scientific and technical forecasting in a broad sense- as forecasting the prospects for the development of scientific and technological progress, the development of science and technology as social institutions - refers to social forecasts.
Its objects are the problems of the development of science, its structure, the social aspects of functioning, the comparative effectiveness of various areas of research, the development of scientific personnel and institutions, as well as the promising problems of technology (the “man-machine” system), more precisely, the controlled aspects of scientific and technological progress in industry, construction, urban and agriculture, transport and communications. Obviously, the forecast of these objects will have the property of self-fulfillment or self-destruction, i.e. when predicting them, the "Oedipus effect" will appear.
Sometimes social forecasts are called social science or socio-economic. In the latter case, all forecasts except economic ones are called social. We will use the notion social forecasts in the broad sense of the word.
Social (in the broad sense of the word) forecasts include:
Despite the marked difference between the forecasts of natural and social phenomena, it is, to a certain extent, conditional. A person, mastering new knowledge, learns to control the development of natural objects, therefore, forecasts for the development of these objects can stimulate activity to change their state in the desired direction (within the existing possibilities), i.e. in forecasting, the effect of self-fulfillment or self-destruction is manifested.
It should be noted, - they write, for example, I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada and G.A. Namestnikov, that there is no blank wall between natural science and social science forecasts, since theoretically the relationship between prediction and prediction is never equal to zero. A person begins to influence the weather (dispersion of fogs, hail clouds), productivity (production of fertilizers), etc.
It is likely that over time he will learn to control the weather, regulate sea disturbances, prevent earthquakes, obtain predetermined crops, program the physiological and psychological development of man, change the orbits of celestial bodies, etc. Then the difference between these types of forecasts will gradually disappear completely.
Make predictions and in scale prediction object:
So, the typology of forecasts can be built according to various criteria depending on the goals, objectives, objects, objects, problems, nature, lead time, methods, etc. There are search and regulatory, operational, short-term, medium-term, long-term and long-term forecasts. By the value of the confidence interval, interval and point forecasts are distinguished.
According to the object of forecasting, natural-science and technical and social forecasts are distinguished. There is a typology based on the criterion of the scale of the forecasting object.
! Task 2. What is the difference between exploratory and normative forecasting? On what basis is this distinction made?
! Task 3. Define and give an example of the Oedipus effect.
Types of plans are also distinguished depending on one or another sign.:
By degree of coverage or by level can be distinguished social planning (planning the development of society as a whole) and planning at the enterprise.
Social planning is defined as a form of regulation of social processes in society related to the life of the population. The main task social planning is to optimize the processes of economic and social development, increase socio-economic efficiency.
On the same basis social planning is different:
- Social planning at the national level
- Social planning at the regional level.
- Social planning at the local level
In turn, social planning at the state level (national and regional) is divided according to planning principles on the directive and indicative.
Directive planning involves the establishment of targeted tasks by the planning authorities and the distribution of the resources necessary for their implementation among the executors of the plan and is characterized by the following principles:
Management of the national economic complex from a single center;
Dominance of planning over other management functions;
Hard state control for the production and economic activities of business entities;
Directiveness of planned decisions, etc.
Directive planning assumes the following conditions:
Forecast indicators and trends,
Conceptual algorithms for transforming structural proportions.
The key sections of the plan concern economic growth, investments, financial flows, economic balance, inflation and competition. In most cases, strategic objectives are expressed in specific (quantified) planning targets, but the latter are of secondary importance.
As indicators, indicators characterizing the dynamics, structure and efficiency of the economy, the state of finance, money circulation, the securities market, price movements, employment and quality of life of the population, foreign economic relations, etc. are used.
The plan is used as the main management tool, while changing the set of means for implementing plans. This type of planning involves the use of direct and indirect economic regulators (prices, incomes, taxes, interest rates, loans, etc.), orienting market entities to achieve their goals.
Planning documents contain only the general contours of the forecast regarding the desired development of the economy as a whole, and also fix decisions on public spending and investments, on current expenditures of state-owned enterprises. The direct task of the plan here is to coordinate the use public resources, which do not claim to directly determine the decisions of business entities of the private sector.
The principles for the formation of an indicative plan are:
Participation on an equal footing of representatives of various "group interests": civil servants, entrepreneurs, trade unions, consumer unions, etc.;
Formation as a result of multi-stage iterations, in the process of dialogue and agreement;
Involvement of experts to jointly identify problems in various areas and, if possible, to propose concrete solutions.
Social planning at the local level provides for: involvement of the public in identifying needs and problems, as well as ways to solve them, in many cases - and in the implementation of activities.
It also includes:
Assessment of the needs of the population of the municipality;
Assessing the resources and capabilities of local authorities in general, existing social services and organizations;
Development of plans that meet the key principles of organizing the provision of services in the territorial unit and which are supported by the local government itself;
Social contracting (social agreement) aimed at involving public and private organizations in the provision of services for budgetary funds (in many cases), the client's right to choose a social service.
All stages of work on social planning are coordinated by local authorities, which also implement their functions. For example, I involve non-governmental organizations in social planning, I implement the function of interaction with public associations.
Planning in the enterprise is also divided by scale or scope into:
- General covering the entire scope of the enterprise.
- Private covering certain areas of the enterprise.
- strategic;
- tactical;
- Operational scheduling.
Strategic planning, as a rule, is focused on the long term and determines the main directions for the development of an economic entity. Through strategic planning, decisions are made about, for example, how to expand the business, create new areas of business, stimulate the process of meeting customer needs, what efforts should be made to meet market demand, in which markets it is better to operate, what products to produce or what services to provide. , with which partners to do business, etc.
The main goal of strategic planning is to create the potential for the survival of the enterprise in a dynamically changing external and internal environment that generates uncertainty in the future.
In a planned economy, when the external environment in which the enterprise functioned was not dynamic, strategic planning was not properly developed either in management theory or in practice. And only now the first steps are being taken in the development of a strategic planning mechanism.
Tactical planning, as a rule, covers the short and medium term, while strategic planning is effective in the long and medium term. As for the objects and subjects of tactical planning, they can be very diverse.
One rule to remember here is that the only way to make the tactical planning process controllable is to plan only the main types of products and costs, the most important functions. However, when different structure plans must comply with the relationship: "costs - output - profit - price". Otherwise, tactical planning becomes impractical.
Operational-calendar planning is the final stage in the planning of the company's business activities. The main task of operational calendar planning is to specify the indicators of the tactical plan in order to organize the daily systematic and rhythmic work of the enterprise and its structural divisions.
In the process of operational scheduling, the following planned functions are performed:
Firstly, the time for performing individual operations for the manufacture of parts of assembly units of products and products as a whole is determined by establishing the associated deadlines for the transfer of objects of labor by the supplying workshops to their consumers.
Secondly, operational preparation of production is carried out by ordering and delivering to the workplace materials, blanks, tools, fixtures and other equipment necessary to fulfill the production plan.
Thirdly, systematic accounting, control, analysis and regulation of the production process is carried out, preventing or eliminating its deviations from the planned schedule.
Ultimately, operational scheduling allows you to:
Reduce interruptions in the movement of objects of labor at individual stages of production;
Ensure the uniformity and complexity of loading equipment and areas;
Respond clearly to any deviations that occur during the production process, and thereby create the preconditions for a rhythmic and effective work enterprise and its divisions.
Operational scheduling links all elements of an enterprise into a single production organism, including the technical preparation of production, the logistics of production, the creation and maintenance of the necessary stocks of material resources, the marketing of products, etc.
It is customary to single out typical systems of operational scheduling: order-by-order, complete, detailed. Accordingly, typical stages of operational planning are distinguished.
Depending on the period for which the plan is drawn up, and the degree of detail of planned calculations, it is customary to distinguish between:
- long-term (perspective),
- mid-term
- short-term (current) planning.
Forward planning covers a period of more than 5 years, for example, 10, 15 and 20 years. Such plans are designed to determine the long-term strategy of the enterprise, including social, economic, scientific and technological development.
Medium-term planning is carried out for a period of 1 to 5 years. At some enterprises, medium-term planning is combined with the current one. In this case, the so-called moving five year plan, in which the first year is detailed to the level of the current plan and is essentially a short-term plan.
Current planning covers a period of up to 1 year, including semi-annual, quarterly, monthly, weekly (ten-day) and daily planning.
According to the subject of planning, they are divided into:
- Target (determination of goals).
- Planning funds ( material resources, labor resources, finance).
- Software (planning of production and marketing programs).
- Action planning (special sales, multi-level marketing).
Depending on the areas of functioning (or the content of economic activity):
- Production planning.
- Sales planning.
- Personnel planning.
- Advanced general planning.
- Social planning.
- Financial planning.
- Planning the promotion of goods and services.
- Planning of payroll fund.
- Organizational planning.
So, for example, social planning at enterprises has as its content the planning of the social development of labor collectives and constitutes the third level of social planning. Different types of production teams require different methods when planning their development.
Depending on the direction and nature of the tasks to be solved, there are three types of planning:
- Regular (systematic), including strategic (long-term), medium-term and tactical (current, budget);
- Target complex programs.
- Business planning for individual projects.
According to the depth of planning, there are:
- Aggregate planning, limited to given contours, for example, planning a workshop as the sum of production sites;
- Detailed planning, for example, with a detailed calculation and description of the planned process or object;
By coordinating private plans in time:
- sequential planning, in which the process of developing various plans is one long, consistent, sequentially implemented process, consisting of several stages;
- simultaneous planning, in which the parameters of all plans are determined simultaneously in one single planning act;
Where possible, data changes:
- rigid planning;
- flexible planning;
In order in time:
- ordered (current) planning, in which, upon completion of one plan, another plan is developed (plans alternate sequentially one after another);
- rolling planning, in which, after a certain scheduled period, the plan is extended for the next period;
- extraordinary (eventual) planning, in which planning is carried out as needed, for example, during the reconstruction or rehabilitation of an enterprise
The concepts are also used contractual and entrepreneurial planning. Contract planning regulates the interaction of market entities, which are built on a voluntary and mutually beneficial basis between enterprises, associations, banks, authorities and management.
Contractual relations form stable production and economic ties, mutual obligations, conditions for their implementation and create a guarantee economic mechanism maintaining consistency in market conditions. Contractual plans are implemented in the form of agreements, supply contracts, participation systems and other forms. To ensure contractual planning, there are appropriate economic and legal prerequisites: legislative norms, independent judicial system and etc.
Thus, relations arising in the process of prospecting, exploration, extraction of mineral raw materials, distribution of manufactured products, their transportation, processing, storage, and sale are regulated by a production sharing agreement. The parties to the agreement are Russian Federation, on its behalf, the Government of the Russian Federation and the executive authority of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, on whose territory the subsoil plot submitted for use is located, and investors - citizens and legal entities, including foreign ones.
Entrepreneurial planning is a function of enterprises, firms, all subjects of production, economic and financial activities aimed at substantiating and choosing the ways of effective development. It is based on intra-company plans of various urgency, designed to solve operational, current and strategic tasks.
So, the types of plans are distinguished depending on the degree of coverage or level, on the principles, content and subject of planning, the scope of operation, the timing of the implementation of plans, the focus and nature of the tasks to be solved, etc. The most significant for today's management situation is the distinction between directive and indicative social planning.
! Task 4. Give examples of plans that differ in areas of operation.
Control questions and tasks:
1. What is the difference between scientific and non-scientific foresight?
2. What is the difference and what is common between the concepts of a program, project, plan?
3. Show the differences between forecast and plan.
4. What concepts characterize the object of forecasting.
5. Give examples of a normative forecast.
6. Give examples of predictive models.
7. What predictions apply to the social group in a broad sense?
8. What type of forecast (social or natural science) does a scientific and technical forecast refer to?
9. Identify types of plans that differ in coverage or level.
10. Show the difference between directive and indicative planning.
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Social economic forecasting It has importance to develop the theory and practice of management. The essence of forecasting reveals Fig.1.
The quality of life, interest in the future stems from the immediate and acute practical needs of today. The need to predict the probabilistic outcome of events in the future has never been as relevant as in a changing environment. This is due to the high uncertainty of events due to the functioning market economy.
Foresight of events makes it possible to prepare for them in advance, take into account their positive and negative consequences, and, if possible, try to anticipate one of the identified future alternatives.
Decisions made today should be based on an assessment of the development of phenomena in the future, in turn, they, to a greater or lesser extent, influence this future. Underestimating the importance of these consequences leads to mistakes that slow down the development of socio-economic systems.
Rice. 1. The essence of forecasting
Thus, the objective need for forecasting in a changing environment and market economy is due to:
activity of the state as a subject of market relations.
When studying the role of forecasting - planning in commercial activities in an unstable economic environment the question arises whether the degree of influence of forecasting on management results changes with a change in the degree of relative provision of commercial activities with resources, or whether this role remains constant regardless of this factor. The degree of relative provision of commercial activity with resources is the ratio of the real volume of the corresponding resources to the minimum volume required by the norms for the implementation of the corresponding program for the creation of goods, the development of production.
Forecasting is the fundamental basis of commercial activity in the performance of any of its inherent functions. Forecasting and planning are a certain system of methodological techniques, the implementation of which in a certain sequence makes it possible to ensure efficiency decisions taken. This is due to the fact that the observance of systemic unity and the established sequence of stages "exploratory forecast - normative forecast - strategic planning - business planning - long-term planning - current planning - operational planning" allows you to consistently disclose the uncertainties of an unstable economic environment, as well as the state of the enterprise itself. Omission of one of the elements of this system can lead to:
Decreased planning accuracy;
Increased risk in decision making.
Therefore, in order to enable practical use forecasts and plans in an unstable economic environment, combinations of the following parameters can be used as parameters for classifying plans:
Planning objects - organizational and production systems, its subsystems, elements, sections, jobs;
Planning periods that are not determined on a calendar basis, but measured in the duration of cycles, their stages or phases of stages life cycle.
Let us introduce a general concept that unites all varieties of obtaining information about the future - foresight. Foresight is divided into scientific and non-scientific (intuitive, everyday, religious).
scientific foresight- based on knowledge of the patterns of development of nature, society and thinking.
Intuitive foresight - based on human premonitions.
Ordinary foresight - based on everyday experience, related analogies, examples, etc.
Religious (prophetic) foresight - based on belief in supernatural powers, superstition, etc.
Foresight affects two interrelated sets of forms of its concretization related to the category of foresight (they are conjugated).
a. Predictive (descriptive, descriptive).
b. Prescriptive (prescriptive, prescriptive).
Prediction - a description of possible or desirable prospects, states, or solutions to future problems.
foretelling- the actual solution of these problems using information about the future for the purposeful socio-economic development of society.
Prediction takes the following forms:
a) premonition;
b) anticipation;
c) prediction;
d) forecasting.
Premonition(simple anticipation) - contains information about the future at the level of intuition, i.e. subconscious.
divination(complex anticipation) – carries information about the future based on life experience, not based on special scientific research.
Forecasting - denotes a special scientific study, the subject of which is the prospects for the development of a socio-economic society.
Forecasting is the process of generating development forecasts based on the analysis of trends in this development.
Predication appears in the following forms:
a) goal setting;
b) planning;
c) programming;
d) design.
goal setting- Establishing the ideal expected result of the activity.
Planning- a projection into the future of human activity to achieve a predetermined goal with certain means, the transformation of information about the future into directives for purposeful activity.
Programming- means the establishment of the main provisions, which are then deployed in the planning or sequence of specific activities for the implementation of the plan.
Design– creation of specific images of the future, specific details, developed programs.
Thus, management as a whole, as it were, integrates the four listed concepts, since each of them is based on the same element (solution).
Forecast- is defined as a probabilistic scientifically based judgment about the prospects, possible states of a particular phenomenon in the future, or about alternative ways and timing of their achievement.
Target is a decision about the expected outcome of economic activity.
Plan- this is a decision on a system of measures providing for the order, sequence, timing and means of their implementation.
Program - this is a decision regarding the set of measures necessary to solve scientific, technical, social, socio-economic and other problems or their aspects.
Project - it is a decision regarding a specific activity necessary for the implementation of one or another aspect of the program.
Forecasting - scientific discipline about the patterns of development of forecasts.
Forecasting reception - it is one or more logical or mathematical operations aimed at obtaining a forecast of a particular object under certain conditions.
Forecasting procedure - a number of techniques that ensure the performance of a certain set of operations.
Forecasting method - method of studying the object of forecasting, aimed at developing forecasts.
Forecasting technique - a set of original rules for using forecasting techniques in the development of a specific forecast.
Forecasting methodology - field of knowledge about methods, methods and systems of forecasting.
Forecasting method - obtaining and processing information about the future based on homogeneous methods for developing a forecast.
Forecasting system - an ordered set of techniques, technical means, designed to predict complex phenomena or processes.
Predictive system - a set of forecasting methods and means of their implementation, functioning in accordance with the basic principles of forecasting and providing a specific forecast.
Search forecast - a forecast that establishes the possible states of the object of forecasting in the future.
Normative forecast - a forecast that establishes the ways and timing of achieving certain states of the object of forecasting.
Forecast task - a document that defines the goals and objectives of the forecast and regulates the procedure for its development.
Prediction stage - part of the forecast development process, characterized by its tasks, methods and results.
Predictive flashback - the forecasting stage, at which the history of the forecast object and the forecast background is studied in order to obtain their systematic description.
Prognostic diagnosis - the forecasting stage, which examines the history of the forecast object and the forecast background in order to identify problems, trends in their development and the choice of developing models and forecasting methods.
Prospection - the forecasting stage, at which, using the selected models and forecasting methods, forecasts of the forecast object and forecast background are developed and verified.
Predictive model - model of the object of forecasting, the study and use of which allows obtaining information about the possible states of the object in the future and the ways and timing of their implementation.
Diagnostic model- a model of the forecasting object, the study and use of which allows obtaining information about the causes of problems.
Predictive experiment– implementation of the forecast on the object of forecasting or its model.
Forecast option is one of the possible predictions.
Forecast verification– assessment of the functional completeness, accuracy and reliability of the forecast.
Forecast Lead Period- the period of time for which the forecast is developed.
Forecast base period– the time interval on the basis of which the retrospection is built.
forecast horizon- the maximum possible lead time, in which its accuracy and reliability are still ensured.
Characteristics of the forecasting object- a qualitative or quantitative reflection of any property of an object.
Significant variable of the prediction object– variable of the forecasting object, accepted to describe the object in accordance with the forecast task.
Endogenous variable of the forecasting object– a significant variable of the forecasting object, reflecting mainly its own properties.
Exogenous variable of the forecast object– a significant variable of the forecasting object, reflecting mainly the properties of the forecasting background.
dynamic series– temporal sequence of retrospective values of the predicted object variable.
trend- analytical or graphical representation of the change in a variable over time, obtained as a result of the selection of the regular component of the time series.
As relatively independent forms of planning are strategic, business planning, long-term, current, operational-calendar planning.
Strategic planning consists in organizational strategic foresight, internal coordination, distribution of resources between several areas of activity of an enterprise in the sphere of commerce in order to adapt to the external environment. It is carried out after the forecast of possible conditions of the environment, determination of the objectives of the activity of the sphere of commerce, selection of several market segments.
The main tasks of strategic planning:
1. distribution of resources between the following areas: development and prospective, current and operational activities;
2. choice of development directions;
3. distribution of resources between different areas of development;
4. distribution of resources between prospective, current and operational-calendar management.
Business planning differs from strategic planning in that the decision is made on the implementation in one of the market segments of a specific market program for one product or service. The lead time for such planning can be equal to the sum of the estimated development cycle, market cycle, and life cycle estimates.
Long-term planning is planning for a period of advance, close to the duration of one individual product cycle, namely development, market or life cycles, and having as an object of planning the enterprise as a whole, operating in one market segment.
Current planning - planning within one of the stages of the life cycle or the scope of one of the industries or divisions of the enterprise.
Operational-calendar planning is called planning with a lead period not exceeding the duration of one of the phases of one stage of the life cycle, considering an element of a subdivision of the organizational and production system as a planning object.
Thus, having identified the main categories of forecasting and planning, it seems possible to name the following as the main differences between forecasting and planning:
1. Forecasting is carried out under conditions with a high degree of uncertainty or randomness;
2. the object of forecasting is most often the totality of the service sector and the external environment;
3. forecasting is more focused on the study of the development of the external environment, considers the enterprise or its element as a kind of integrity, is of a systemic nature;
4. Forecasting allows you to determine the possible states of the external environment, the list and probabilities of achieving possible goals, the list of paths and the corresponding probabilities for achieving each of the goals.
5. when forecasting due to a long lead time and uncertainty, more general intersectoral calculation or expert norms are used;
6. Forecasting is mostly informational, advisory in nature, decision making is optional.
Problem. In what cases do exchange reactions proceed irreversibly, i.e., to the end?
This occurs in three cases when substances leaving the reaction sphere are formed as products of the ion exchange reaction:
To resolve the issue of the possibility of a particular exchange reaction, one often has to refer to the table of solubility of inorganic compounds. It is also necessary to remember the most common cases of the formation of gaseous compounds (carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide, ammonia). They are released if the corresponding acids are formed as a result of the exchange reaction (carbonic H 2 CO 3 and sulfurous H 2 SO 3 are unstable, decomposing at the time of formation).
Basic concepts
Full and reduced ionic equations Ion exchange reactions
Questions and tasks
1. Which of the following substances will react with a hydrochloric acid solution: barium hydroxide, silver nitrate, copper (II) sulfate, sodium nitrate, potassium sulfite, ammonium hydroxide, copper (II) oxide, phosphorus (V) oxide? Write the corresponding reaction equations in molecular and full ionic forms.
Purpose of the form
The proposed form should contribute to the improvement of methods for predicting the capabilities of foreign states. To this end, particular attention is drawn to the importance of the following points:
a) Consistent description of favorable 2 and non-
1 This form is a modification of the scheme proposed in Colonel Walter Sewell's "Risk Assessment", Military Review, Command and General Staff College, Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas, Aug. 1953.
2 By “favorable” factors are those that contribute to the implementation of the assumption under consideration. For example, if a five-year forecast is made regarding the development higher education in the USSR or the development of the air force in communist China, then favorable factors will be those that will promote the development of education or the air force. These factors do not necessarily favor the United States. The bottom line is that when making a forecast were equally taken into account arguments for and against.
FORESIGHT
favorable factors with an assessment of the final result of their interaction, approximately as is done when assessing the situation in accordance with the US Army Field Manual FM-101-5.
b) Comparison of position in foreign country with a similar situation known to us in cases where this is possible.
c) A clear formulation of reasonable assumptions, the definition of the upper and lower limits of the development of this phenomenon and the various possibilities in this area. The forecast should contain an indication of some of the main factors that determine the development of the phenomenon under study, as well as an indication of the degree of reliability of the forecast.
Explanations
A consistent description of both favorable and unfavorable factors helps to identify critical factors that determine the development of this phenomenon, and determine what effect they can have in the aggregate - positive or negative. This approach helps comprehensively study phenomenon, to clarify some of the current methods of work and to establish the decisive points on which foresight is based.
By comparing the situation in a foreign country with a similar situation known to us, the operating factors of which are known to us and can be studied, we shed some light on the phenomenon under study, which otherwise would remain obscure.
Reasonable assumptions indicate the possible upper and lower limits of the development of the phenomenon under study and help to better understand the correctness of the quantitative indicators and the accuracy of the estimates made.
All these techniques will be somewhat more useful in the field of intelligence forecasting than the limited usefulness they bring in general, and the noticeable usefulness they bring in some areas, for example, in economic statistics. They will help develop the skills of consistent thinking and make the foundations on which we build our conclusions more clear.
Approximate form of the document
This form should be considered as a guide only and should be used where appropriate. Individual elements that are not applicable should be omitted.
Formulation of the problem
Assumptions
Scope of study and terminology
General consideration of the problem. Indication of the importance of the problem; description of the general situation; a short list of general factors that determine the phenomenon under study. This section of the document provides for consideration primarily of such permanent factors that need to be always take into account when solving this kind of problem, and not private factors associated with a given country or phenomenon. The remaining sections of the document relate only to this particular country and the circumstances of the task, if the latter is necessary.
Historical analysis. The development of the phenomenon under study and its trends. Drawing up charts whenever possible. Reasons for the development of the phenomenon under study in this direction. Finding out, on the basis of historical analysis, which principle of foresight should be chosen - a foresight based on taking into account stable trends, the development of events in a certain direction or the cyclical development of events.
The status quo. The study of the present is the starting point for the study of the future. The volume of our knowledge regarding the facts and research methods is determined.
favorable factors. Each significant factor favoring the development of the phenomena referred to in this forecast is considered separately; an estimate is given of the maximum effect that each of these factors can have. The probability of maintaining for a certain time in the future a given degree of effectiveness of each of the factors is determined.
unfavorable factors. Considered from the same positions as favorable.
Similar provisions. The phenomenon under study compares
FORESIGHT
dealing with similar phenomena about which we have more information, for example, with phenomena that occurred in the past in the same foreign country, or with known phenomena in the United States or some friendly country.
Causes, major factors and decisive moments. Each of these factors, which are important, and perhaps even decisive, are studied in depth.
Final consideration of the problem as a whole. The relationship of all the above points is taken into account.
Conclusions. Include an indication of the degree of reliability of the forecast and, where possible, the degree of accuracy of the given numerical data.
PART THREE
INFORMATIONAL
INTELLIGENCE WORK
AS A PROFESSION
To correctly identify risks, it is important to be able to predict. But even if you take a ready-made forecast, you must be able to evaluate its quality. Follow these six rules and your predictions will improve.
Today, many mistakenly believe that the main purpose of forecasting is to predict the future. But reality is so changeable and events can happen so unexpectedly that it is impossible to accurately predict future phenomena. The main thing for a forecaster is to identify uncertainties, because if our actions still influence the formation of the future, then any uncertainty entails some changes.
First of all, it is important to understand how to distinguish a good and high-quality forecast from a bad one and how not to be influenced by false ideas about how they are made. A few simple and reasonable rules will help you learn how to correctly explore scenarios for the future development of your business and independently evaluate the quality of forecasts that have already been made.
Try to be skeptical about visible changes and avoid hasty conclusions, because even if the forecast comes true 100% once, it does not mean that it will always be so.
Rule 1
Define the boundaries of uncertainty. When making a decision, we ultimately rely on common sense and intuition. A good forecast will help you find benchmarks that will show you what conditions are needed to implement the most suitable option for you. Such landmarks simultaneously compress and expand the space within which your intuition can “unfold”. Graphically, a forecast can be represented as an image of a bundle of uncertainties. It is better to build it wider, that is, to assume more probable outcomes of the event and active actions. And later it can be shrunk, abandoning obviously unnecessary scenarios.
Rule 2
Outline the trajectory of future important events. The nature of the most significant changes is usually described by an S-shaped power-type curve: a slow start, a gentle rise, a sudden and rapid rise to the highest point and a decrease or return to the initial level. The art of forecasting is to guess the course of the curve when it first appears, well before the inflection point. The most common mistakes in such cases are miscalculating the speed with which the S-curve will reach the top, or underestimating the pace of events at the tipping point.
Rule 3
Don't forget about things that are out of the ordinary. On a long segment of the curve up to the inflection point, there are always a lot of signals that are barely perceptible individually, but if put together, they may well serve as the basis for making a forecast. The main thing is to take into account factors that do not fit into a single generally accepted classification and therefore are most often discarded.
Rule 4
Don't be afraid to make strong assumptions. The most dangerous thing for a forecaster is to trust one message and ignore all the others. As in navigation, it is important here to consider any information, even if not completely reliable, and not rely on two sources, and even more so on one. Try to quickly form a forecast chain, put forward hypotheses, prove their failure - that is, narrow the bundle of uncertainty until a strategy begins to emerge based on the forecasts inside it.
Rule 5
Don't forget the lessons of history. When studying the experience of the past, remember that it is rarely a reliable indicator of future events. When looking for answers, pay attention to turns, and not to straight sections of calm development, this will help you better understand the logic of events. When looking back for parallels, consider a period twice as long as your current forecast and look for a similar development pattern.
Rule 6
Be able to clearly identify cases when it is not worth taking on a forecast. There are moments in history when it is almost impossible to make a prediction. The bundle of uncertainties either expands or narrows, some possibilities disappear, others appear. Sometimes the uncertainty is the highest degree: then the beam becomes almost limitless, at which point a good forecaster will never dare to make predictions.
Based on Paul Saffo's "Don't Be Precise: Six Rules of Prediction" by Paul Saffo
