AGE PYRAMID, pyramid of ages, age-sex pyramid, graphic. image distribution of people by age and gender. It is a two-way directional chart, on which the number of people of each age and gender or their proportion in us. shown as a horizontal bar. scale. The bars are arranged one above the other in order of increasing age values, usually from 0 to 100 years, on the left - for men, on the right - for women. Since the number of people tends to be smaller due to mortality at older ages, the image for the full set of ages is pyramid-shaped.
V. p. is usually built on the basis of data from censuses or surveys. by one-year or 5-year age groups so that the area of the steps of the pyramid corresponds to the number of people (thousands) of each age and sex, or, in comparison, to their share in us. (%). The length of the step in this case corresponds to the density of a given age group, i.e., the number of people per unit of age. If the initial data with the age structure are presented in unequal age intervals, then for larger groups the length of the steps of the VP is determined by dividing the number of people in the group by the length of the interval, expressed in age units accepted for the entire VP. So, when constructing V. p. according to 5-year groups of numbers. The 6-year-old age group should be divided by 6/8, and the 10-year-old by 2. If the oldest age group includes people, for example, 70 years and older, then this interval is considered to extend up to 100 years, i.e. . is equal to 30 years, however, for every 5 years it depicts not cf. density (which can be obtained by dividing the number of groups by 6), and gradually decreasing to zero by the age of 100 years. V. p. depicts the age-sex structure of us. at one time or another, i.e., fixes a certain state of it in the course of a continuous process of reproduction of the population. Compar. the length of the steps from the oldest ages (people born a long time ago) to the youngest (those born recently) gives an idea of the effect on the age composition of us. birth and death processes over a long period of time. time, as well as the influence of the current age composition on the growth prospects of us. In the beginning. 1930s the concept of three types of the age structure of the population was introduced, to which the forms of V. p. correspond: in the young us. it has the shape of a regular pyramid, in the aged us. - the shape of a bell, in a very old one - the shape of an urn (see Fig. 1), and determines, ceteris paribus fast growth, slow growth or decline us.
If us. and the mode of reproduction of the population, i.e., the levels of fertility and mortality, did not experience k.-l. ext. perturbing influences, then the V. p. has relatively even edges, and with a long-term high birth rate and a relatively high death rate, it has a wide base and a narrow top (for example, the population of Mexico, see Fig. 2), and with low levels birth and death rates - a narrow base and a wide top (for example, population of Sweden, see Fig. 3). These two V. p. correspond to the types of age structure of a growing and almost stationary population, and the second clearly reflects the process of aging of us. 20th century and "demographic. echo" of this phenomenon. distribution of us. shown in fig. 2 and 3 as a percentage, and therefore V. p. are completely comparable, although us. Mexico in 1970 was 48 million, and us. Sweden - 8 million
Under the influence of violations in number. and age structure of us. or in the intensity of its reproduction, caused, for example, by war, which leads to a drop in the birth rate and to a decrease in men of military age, or by constant immigration, which usually increases the number of men in working age, the boundaries of V. p. become uneven, on them previous changes in the nature of the increase and decrease in us are reflected. Such violations leave traces in the age structure of us.
For example, on V. p. us. The GDR as of December 31, 1970 (see Fig. 4) clearly shows signs of a sharp decline in the birth rate and, accordingly. numbers born during the 1st World War 1914-18 (1) during the years of the economy, the crisis of 1929-33 in the pre-war. Germany (3) and during the 2nd World War 1939-45, unleashed by Nazi Germany (4), as well as traces of the loss of adult men in the military. years (2). The "preponderance" of the number of women over the number of men over the age of 70 is caused not only by the death of men during the war, but also by their higher mortality in peacetime. The "demographic, echo" of the decline in fertility can be traced through the generation: smaller generations born in 1930-33 (at the end of 1970 they were aged 37-40 years), reaching reproductive age, gave birth to relatively fewer children (at the end of 1970 these children were 11-15 years old) than neighboring generations. More means. the flaw is shown by the generations born in 1941-46 (at the end of 1970 they were 23-28 years old): the tapering base of the pyramid (ages 0-5 years) is a consequence of the small number of births to a small number of parents belonging to these generations (5). The "preponderance" of the number of men in younger ages is explained by the predominance of children by husbands. sex among births (see Sex ratio). This preponderance persists until almost 40 years of age, despite the higher mortality of men. Thus, the analysis of V. p. allows us to visually characterize the sources of deformations in the age structure of us.
Rice. Fig. 4. The age pyramid of the population of the GDR as of December 31, 1970: 1 - the deficit of births in 1914-1918; 2 - military losses of men in 1939-1945; 3 - deficit of births in 1929-1933; 4 - shortage of births in 1939-1945; 5 - "demographic echo" of the deficit of births in 1939-1945.
Superimposed on each other V.p. according to two censuses of us. (the difference in the length of each step should be clearly marked at the same time) show shifts in the age-sex structure, caused by the fact that different generations are at the same age in different years, the number of which may also be different. For example. V. p. us. USSR for 1926 and 1970 (see Fig. 5) illustrate the war-induced violations in the sex ratio, the decline in the birth rate in the military. years and their consequences in the beginning. 70s Thus, V. p. facilitates the demographic forecast. It is significant to compare V. p. also in space, for example, pyramids for mountains. and sat down. us.: in the village. areas are dominated by children and the elderly, and in the mountains. settlements - us, of working age. V. n also help to assess the accuracy of census data on age. For example, extremely long steps of the pyramid at round ages in us. Mexico (see Fig. 2) and too short at adjacent ages indicate a signifi- cant. age accumulation.
For the purpose of analysis, V. p. groups of us. - migrants, people with employment, otd. ethnic groups or us. otd. regions.
V. p. are also used in the study of the reproduction of us. using demographic models. Comparing the outlines of B, n. real us. and stationary population or stable population, respectively. modes of reproduction, you can visualize the nature of the influence of modern. birth and death rates on the age-sex composition and number. the real us. Such an analysis, turned to the past, helps to capture the stages of transition from one mode of reproduction to another, to set the time of such a transition in different countries and in different eras.
V. p. for the future allow you to see decomp. demographic options. forecasts for both countries, and for groups of countries (eg, economically developed and developing), as well as the world as a whole. Futurologists often resort to the image of V. p. to compare the prospects for changes in the age and sex composition of us. countries with "young" and "old" us. until the state of stationarity is reached.
V. p. are also used in economic and demographic. studies, where their steps are not represented by numbers. generation (age group), but the number of people employed in production, the volume (usually in monetary terms) of the production and consumption of people at each age or period of their life, hours worked, etc. For a conditional generation, such characteristics are obtained by construction of the so-called. economic V. p.
Boyarsky A. Ya. Shusherin P. P., Demographic statistics, 2nd ed., M. 1955, Gerchuk Ya P, Graphic. methods in statistics, M. 1968; Valkovich E. Ekon. age pyramids, in the book: Marxist-Leninist theory of population, 2nd ed., M. 1974, Kalinyuk I.V., Age structure of us. USSR, M. 1975; Arab-Ogly E. A., Demographic and environmental forecasts, M. 1978.
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1.2. Age periodization Passport age, where the inter-age interval is one year, differs from biological (or anatomical and physiological) age, covering a number of years of a person's life, during which certain biological changes occur.
Sacred North: Pyramid of the Sun and Pyramid of the Moon Finally, we leave the southern part of the ensemble and move up the Road of the Dead, north to the sacred part of Teotihuacan. Approximately in the middle of more than four kilometers of avenue on the east side rises
Age Regression Those of you who would like to know the details of a previous abduction and make contact with the chrononauts can try the following simple self-hypnosis exercise. (For convenience, you may want to record the following text on an audio cassette.) "Now
Age Progression When it comes to time travel under hypnosis, I prefer the term "age progression" to "foresight". Many consider precognition to be a unique mystical experience and also find the term "age progression" more
Age spirituality Turning to the age scale of ordinary human life, we must note that, no matter what marriage a person is, he, one way or another, goes through all the stages of marriage stereotypes. Until the age of 30, romantic illusions disappear; at 40, there is no hope that
From the book Your body says "Love yourself!" by Burbo LizHyperopia AGE Physical blockage Age-related farsightedness is a lack of vision in which, due to poor accommodation of the eye, a person cannot clearly see objects at close range. Emotional blocking In modern medicine, deterioration
50. Age stratification Periodization of the life path and ideas about the properties and capabilities of individuals of each age are closely related to the age stratification existing in society, that is, the system for organizing the interaction of age strata (strata). Between
AGE REGRESSION It was not long ago... It was a long time ago. Song In hypnotic orthodoxy, age regression is almost a complete immersion of a person in childhood or another period of the past. As if "re-living" of that time. We don't need such frills. Just
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"Small Russian Pyramid" ("Pyramid") The game is played with 16 balls: 15 aiming balls and a cue ball. The balls played are numbered from 1 to 15. "Own" ball can be striped or colored. Hits on object balls are carried out only with a cue ball. For hitting when playing "Little Russian
The age-sex pyramid is a graphic representation of the distribution of people by their sex and age at some point in time. This is a two-sided chart in which the number of people of each age and sex (or their proportion in the population) is represented by a horizontal bar of the same scale. The bars are arranged one above the other in order of increasing age values (usually from 1 to 100 years), on the left - for men, on the right - for women. Age-sex pyramids are built according to censuses and surveys. The area of the steps of the pyramids corresponds to the number of people of a given age and sex or their share in the population (while the length of the steps corresponds to the density of a given age group - the number of people per unit of age).
When analyzing the pyramid, 2 points are taken into account: Tikhomirova N.P. Demography. Methods of analysis and forecasting. Proc. allowance for universities. - M .: Exam, 2205. - 256 p.
The composition of the population by sex is usually considered together with age composition as the age and sex composition of the population. It is expedient to do this because of differences in age-specific mortality of men and women. For every 100 girls born in Russia, an average of 105-106 boys are born; it is a biological constant among those born alive. It can be expressed in another way - for every 1000 newborns, there are an average of 512 boys and 488 girls. There are certain patterns of the sex of the born child, depending on the status of the marital status, age, living conditions of his parents, especially his mother. Married parents have more boys, and illegitimate children have more girls. The greater the age of the mother and the greater the serial number of births, the lower the proportion of boys among those born. That is, for older mothers, the youngest children tend to be girls. During the period of difficult living conditions (war, economic crises etc.) more among born girls. After leaving these difficult living conditions, there are already more boys among those born. This is due to the conditions of gestation and gender differences in intrauterine mortality. It should also be taken into account that the biological resistance of men (boys) is lower than that of women (girls); the mortality of male embryos and fetuses is also higher, this is especially acutely felt in difficult periods in the life of the country and family. The behavioral factor of the population also affects the sex ratio of babies born. At the end of the 20th century, the practice of prenatal diagnosis of the sex of an unborn child appeared and expanded. The desire of parents to have a child of a certain gender and the use of prenatal diagnostics to a certain extent contribute to an increase in the frequency of artificial terminations of pregnancy (abortions). Due to the mortality of men by adulthood, the ratio of men and women is gradually leveling off, and at older ages the number of men is much less than women. Russian statistical yearbook. 2005: Statistical Sat. / Rosstat, 71p.
In 1894 the Swedish statistician and demographer A.-G. Sundberg proposed to distinguish three types of age structures of the population: progressive, stationary and regressive.
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In accordance with three types of age structure, population reproduction modes can be distinguished: Andreev E., Vishnevsky A. et al. Weekly "Demoscope Weekly" // Russian Age and Gender Pyramid. No. 215 - 216 of September 26 - October 9, 2005, 479s..
Age-sex pyramid
Age-sex pyramid of the population of Russia, 2009
Age-sex pyramids- a graphical representation of the distribution of the population by sex and age, which is used to characterize the sex and age composition of the population.
The age-sex composition of the population represents the ratio of age-sex groups - populations of people of the same age. This is the main element of the age structure of the population. Depending on the objectives of the study, one-year and enlarged age groups are distinguished: five- and ten-year-olds. However, larger age groups are also used to assess general structural shifts.
Age-sex pyramids are diagrams in which the number of people of each age (or their proportion in the population) is depicted as a horizontal bar of a certain scale. The bars are located one above the other in order of increasing age values, on the left side of the diagram - for men, on the right - for women. Age-sex pyramids are usually built according to one-year or five-year age groups, and sometimes even ten-year groups. However, age-sex pyramids built according to large age groups do not reveal the detailed features of the age and sex composition of the population.
The composition of the age-sex structure of the population is primarily the result of the evolution of population reproduction. The type of population reproduction, formed by the processes of fertility and mortality in the present and past periods, determines the ratio of the population of different age groups.
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Glossary of terms on social statistics
AGE (AGE-SEX) PYRAMID- graphical distribution of the population by age and sex. It is a two-sided directional chart in which the number of people of each age and gender, or their proportion in the population, is depicted as a horizontal bar of a certain scale. ... ... Social statistics. Dictionary
PYRAMID OF AGE-SEX- graphic image of the age and sex structure of the population. P.v. p. is constructed as follows. Age groups are plotted along the vertical axis, and on the horizontal axis, the number of men on the left, women on the right (instead of the population, they can ... ... Russian sociological encyclopedia
AGE PYRAMID- AGE PYRAMID, pyramid of ages, age-gender pyramid, graphic. image distribution of people by age and gender. It is a two-sided directional chart, for which the number of people of each age and sex or their share in ... ...
KOREA- (cor. Joseon, lit. Country of morning freshness), located in East. Asia, on the Korean Peninsula (incl. Islands) and on the adjacent part of the mainland. Pl. 221 t. km2 (including the demarcation zone of 1.3 t. km2). Since 1905, K. protectorate, then (since 1910): colony ... ... Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary
ZIMBABWE- (Zimbabwe), Republic of Zimbabwe, state in South. Africa. Pl. 390.6 tons km2. Us. 7.74 million hours (1983, census). Capital of Harare (ex. Salisbury; 656 vol., 1982). Included in the Commonwealth. Since the 1880s 3. possession of the UK (up to ... ... Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary
FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY- FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY, Germany (Bundesrepubhk Deutschland), state in the Center. Europe. Pl. 248 tons km2. Us. 59.7 million hours (1983) Capital Bonn (292t. f., 1982) Highly developed Germany industrial country. Germans make up 92.6% of all of us. (1983).… … Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary
BULGARIA- (Bulgaria), People's Republic of Bulgaria (People's Republic of Bulgaria), NRB, state in the V. Balkan Peninsula, washed by the Black m Pl. 110.9 tons km2. Us. 8949 vol. (1983). Capital Sofia (1179 vol., 1983). B. socialist. state in, developed industry. ... ... Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary
GERMAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC- (Deutsche Demokratische Republik), East Germany, state in the center. parts of Europe. Pl. 108.3 tons km2. Us. 16.7 million hours (1983). Capital Berlin (1173 vol., 1982). GDR highly developed industry. country. GDR socialist. state in, formed on the territory. east Germany... ... Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary
GREECE- (Hellas), Hellenic Republic (Hellenike Demokratia), state in South. Europe, on the Balkan Peninsula and my number. o vakh (the largest Crete, Euboea, Rhodes, Lesvos). Pl. 131.9 tons km2. Us. 9.8 million hours (1982). The capital of Athens (over 3 million, with suburbs, ... ... Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary
The sex and age pyramid is one of the main tools of sociology, which is used to study the composition of the population and its well-being. In this article we will talk about what it is, what are its advantages and what types it is divided into. We also consider the gender and age indicator of Russia.
The sex and age pyramid is a two-sided bar chart that reflects the age and sex composition of the population of a certain area.
It has two axes:
This population counting system is very ancient - it was already used in ancient China. The scale of that time was divided into six periods, starting with the oldest: old age, desired age, last creative age, age of knowing one's delusions, age of fulfilling duties to society, time of marriage, youth.
This shows that even in those years the significance of age for the social activity of the population was clear. In modern sociology, it is customary to distinguish the following stages:
However, these indicators may vary depending on the purpose of sociological research. Today, scientists can easily talk about the structure and level of development of the population of various countries, comparing them with each other, revealing certain dynamics of demographic processes from the data obtained.
The very concept of the age structure of the population arose in the 19th century. And it began to reflect the distribution of the population of various age groups on the territory of a particular country or our planet as a whole.
The gender and age pyramid is based on the principle of dividing the entire population by gender. It is worth noting that according to sociological data, there are more men on our planet than women. However, this is a general figure, which owes its appearance to Asian countries. But the situation in Europe is completely opposite. This confirms the view that different countries in terms of gender are very different from each other.
There are three main types of such pyramids that describe different scenarios of population reproduction. Let's list them.
The first primitive type, which also bears the name "Eiffel Tower", is characterized by the expansion of reproduction. There is more young growing population here. It has a very high birth rate, but death rates are also high, life expectancy is extremely short. Outwardly, the diagram has a wide base, the sides can be flat or even concave, the height of the pyramid is small.
Sex and age pyramids (the types of which are presented here) can be easily distinguished from each other by appearance. But back to our description of their varieties.
The second type, also known as the “bell” or “shock”, is also called the “zero growth” pyramid or the stationary type of reproduction. This species is characterized by a decrease in fertility. On average, one woman has no more than two children. On the other hand, the mortality rate is decreasing, life expectancy is increasing, and there are more elderly people. Outwardly, the diagram looks like a bell with a narrowed base. This type is characteristic of the usual type of reproduction. Often seen in some European countries. If we take into account the need to compensate for the decrease in the population that died due to accidents, as well as to compensate for the absence of children in some families, then in order to maintain the population at the same level, it is necessary that there be 2-3 children per woman. Consequently, this type of development of society will lead to the gradual extinction of the population.
The third type, another name is "burial urn". This pyramid reflects the rapid decline in population. In a country with such a gender and age pyramid, a degrading situation is noted. The population is rapidly decreasing, there are more old people than young people. It has a low birth rate - about one child per woman, which cannot even ensure simple reproduction. Mortality is at a low level. According to the UN classification, a country is considered old if the proportion of the elderly population exceeds 7%. This situation is typical for many industrial countries. Therefore, many developed countries are forced to spend huge amounts of money on demographic policy.
The sex and age pyramid is used to study a huge number of social processes. In addition, population control is necessary to track the dynamics of socio-economic processes based on the demographic situation.
Information about changes in the structure of the population makes it possible to determine the reasons for the decrease or decrease in mortality and fertility. And as a result, look for ways to solve these problems. To begin with, you only need to determine what the gender and age pyramid will be built for, then it will be possible to extract the maximum benefit from it.
If there is information about the composition of the population, then it is possible to plan and predict the socio-economic consequences of the development of a particular business or state law. Such studies are of great importance for marketers, as they provide information about what services will be in demand in a certain time period.
An analysis of the age-sex pyramid, as well as its comparison with previous data, makes it possible to anticipate progress or regression in the size of the population and its well-being. We can find out if there is an increase or decrease in the population, determine the death rate and much more. This data can provide researchers with a wealth of information.
Typically, such pyramids are analyzed in three aspects: migration, mortality and fertility. The most important parameter in this case is the level of life expectancy. This indicator makes it possible to judge the degree of social well-being of the state. In addition, the analysis of the pyramid allows you to identify the main problems associated with demography, and outline ways to solve them.
The sex and age pyramid of the population is necessarily tied to a specific territory. It can be a separate area, a country or the whole planet. And in the analysis, this parameter must be taken into account.
For example, the demographic situation in rural and urban areas will be very different, even if both settlements are in the same area. And the statistics confirm this. Thus, in cities there are more young men than women of the same age. But in the countryside, the situation is different. Here, the number of men exceeds the number of women only in groups over 50 years old. This is due to the laws of population migration from countryside. And such patterns can be traced in different territories.
Sex and age pyramids of countries with a high level of development, of course, have their own distinctive features. The main parameter here will be the indicator of population aging. Due to the high standard of living and the high quality of medical services, life expectancy in such states only increases over time. Interestingly, the leading place here is occupied by Japan, where the number of people over 80 years old is very large. However, the birth rate in these countries is falling sharply. Even the age indicators of the United States, where there has always been a large number of babies, today are frozen in place. And this is a very disturbing fact. What saves the United States, however, is a constant wave of young people emigrating from other countries. Worse is Europe, whose population is gradually dying out.
The characteristics of the gender and age pyramid of third world countries are completely different. Here everything is exactly the opposite. The birth rate is at a very high level, especially in the Asian region. But the mortality rates here are rather high. And life expectancy is much less than in Europe. In this regard, in third world countries there are problems with good housing, qualified personnel and well-paid work. There are too many young people, there are not enough jobs for everyone.
Africa is the youngest continent today. Here the death and birth rates are the highest.
We note right away that the diagram of Russia belongs to the second type, but there are trends that indicate that it will soon move to the third type. However, it differs from the pyramids of other countries in the presence of some characteristic "scars". For example, a sharp decline in the population in the post-war period, as well as a decrease in the birth rate in the 90s and other times of crisis.
The gender and age pyramid of Russia today allows us to make not particularly optimistic forecasts. Despite all the efforts of the state and the reforms being introduced, there is practically no growth in the birth rate. The life expectancy of the older generation is not increasing either.
Nevertheless, approximately 60% of the country's population are people of retirement age. Such a situation can lead to dire economic consequences, because young people simply cannot physically provide for the elderly. Sociologists hope that emigrants, who will be attracted by a large amount of empty land, will be able to save the day. But how these expectations will be justified and what the consequences will be is still unclear.
With regard to the gender situation, the number of births of boys and girls is approximately the same. But at an older age, there are many more women.
The sex and age pyramid of the population of Russia includes such an indicator as “the load of able-bodied citizens”, but what does this mean? This coefficient is derived from the ratio of working and non-working population. A good indicator is only when the number of the first is twice the number of the second. That is, 70% of the employed should account for 30% of the unemployed. Only such a ratio can ensure a decent quality of life for children and the older generation. As noted above, in Russia this indicator is extremely unfavorable due to a large number pensioners and a small number of young people.
As we can see, the current demographic situation in Europe, the USA and Russia indicates the presence big problems in these countries. Due to the high life expectancy of the population and low birth rates, a socio-economic crisis may arise that will affect the most developed world continents. And it won't lead to anything good. On the other hand, the analysis data age and sex pyramids allow you to make not only a forecast, but also outline ways to solve future problems. Perhaps this is what will help save the civilized world from extinction.
For a visual and joint representation of the age and sex structures of the population, the so-called. age-sex pyramids. The age-sex pyramid is a two-sided bar chart of the distribution of the population by age, with the female population on one side of the graph (on the right) and the male population on the other side (on the left). The vertical axis of the histogram represents the age scale, expressed in one- or five-year intervals, starting from 0 years and ending with the age limit or open age interval. And the total population of a given sex and age, or its share in the entire population or in the population of a given sex, is depicted as horizontal stripes, the area of \u200b\u200bwhich (or length in the case of equal intervals) is proportional to the named indicators. For the purposes of comparing different populations and obtaining comparable information about their age structure, pyramids are built using the proportions of a given age and sex group in the entire population and taking the total population as 100, 1000 or 10,000.
The diagram obtained in this way was at one time called a pyramid for the simple reason that, due to the influence of mortality, the number of persons in older ages is usually less than in younger ones. At least, this was the case in those years when this tool for visual representation of the age and sex structure of the population was proposed. At present, in countries with low fertility, the shape of the population distribution diagram by sex and age does not at all resemble a pyramid, but rather, some kind of inverted urn.
The age-sex pyramid depicts the state of the population at some point in time (at the time of the census or on January 1), i.e. in fact, it is, as it were, a stop in the continuous process of population reproduction. Therefore, by the comparative length of the bands, one can judge the influence of birth and death processes on the age structure of the population (and over many decades), as well as future trends in population reproduction and possible prospects for changes in its size in the future. If, for example, in a certain year and period of time, the number of births noticeably differs in one direction or another from neighboring ones, then this will be reflected in the age-sex pyramid in the form of either a ledge (if the number of births is greater than in neighboring years), or a failure (if this number is correspondingly less). And this deformation, passing through more and more older ages, will persist for almost a whole century, until this set of births dies out. And it will have an impact both on demographic phenomena and on phenomena of a completely different kind, changing in waves, for example, the number of births, mortality, demand for certain goods and services, etc. etc. The age-sex pyramid also makes it possible to judge the impact on the reproduction of the population of various historical events: wars, epidemics, revolutions, certain legislative acts and other actions that can somehow affect the processes of fertility and mortality.
The sex and age pyramid is similar to real pyramids, since with increasing age the number of people in age groups decreases and the stripes become shorter. The age structure of an ideal population, in which fertility and mortality would remain unchanged for a long time, would look like an almost isosceles triangle with straight sides (but still with some skew to the right, i.e. towards the “female half”). However, this does not happen, because both the number of births and the number of deaths fluctuate over time, sometimes very sharply.
Borisov V.A., Delyugraphy: Textbook for universities. M., 1999. S. 88.
With the help of age-sex pyramids, other demographic and socio-economic phenomena can also be explored. So, demographers build pyramids by gender, age and marital status. Widely known are the economic-demographic age-sex pyramids used to analyze economic activity by age and measure the balance of production and consumption by generations 28 .
An important aspect of the use of age-sex pyramids is the analysis of the relationship between the age structure and population reproduction. The connection between the age structure and the reproduction of the population was noticed relatively long ago. Even at the end of the XIX century. Swedish demographer A.G. Sundberg introduced the concept progressive, stationary and regressive types of age structure. They were named so because with a progressive age structure, the population increases and, moreover, quite quickly, with a stationary one, it does not change its numbers, and with a regressive one, it decreases.
They differ from each other in the shares of children aged 0-15 years and "old people" aged 50 years and older. In the progressive age structure, the proportion of children is, according to Sundberg, 40%, and "old people" - 10%; in the stationary, respectively, 27 and 23%, and in the regressive, 20 and 30%).
These types of age structure correspond to the types of age pyramids proposed in the 1930s. 20th century German statistician F. Burgdörfer. The progressive age structure (young population) corresponds to a regular pyramid; a diagram depicting a stationary age structure resembles a bell; the regressive age structure corresponds to a figure called (perhaps not without some irony) an urn. These figures are shown in Fig. 3.1.
The above can be illustrated by the example of the age-sex pyramids of the Russian population. Below (graphs 3.8 - 3.10) shows the pyramids for 1939 (population census 1939), for 1998 (estimated data) and for 2050 (UN forecast 1998, lower version). The first of these pyramids is that of a typical young growing population with a high birth rate and a relatively high but declining death rate. The length of the stripes decreases relatively evenly, however, deformations caused by sharp events are already noticeable on this pyramid. Russian history early 20th century First of all, attention is drawn to the “pit”, located in the region of ages from 15 to 25 years. This "pit" is the result of a decline in the birth rate during the First World War, the 1917 revolution and the civil war that followed. These events left their mark on the population, which in 1939 crossed the age limit of 35 years (especially on age group 35-39 years).
Rice. 3.1. Types of age structure according to F. Burgderfer 29
Chart 3.8
Age pyramid of the population of Russia, 1939
A rather sharp narrowing of the pyramid in these segments is a consequence of population losses from military operations, epidemics and other adverse events of that time. The diagram also reflected the compensatory increase in the birth rate in the 1920s. (protrusion at the age level of 10-15 years), some of its growth in connection with the ban on abortion in 1936, as well as its sharp drop in the early 30s, caused, no doubt, by those socio-economic and political events that were happening in the country at that time.
On the pyramid of 1959, deep dips in the numbers of those born in 1916-1918 are visible. (World War I and Civil War), their slight increase in 1919 (it is still difficult to find an explanation), then growth until 1929 and a sharp drop in 1930-1935. ... Then the deepest failure in 1940-1944, i.e. during the hardest war. It is important to pay attention to the still relatively wide and expanding base of the pyramid, which indicates a relatively high birth rate in the country. ...It is easy to notice the numerical superiority of women, especially at the age of over 30 years. In contrast to the birth rate, the fall of which manifests itself in the age structure in the form of depressions, mortality leaves a mark on the pyramid only in the form of gender disproportion and general form its configuration.
Borisov V.A. Demography: Textbook for universities. M., 1999. S. 92-93.
In general, the age-sex pyramid of 1939 is a portrait of a young, growing population with a high birth rate and a relatively high, but declining, death rate.
A completely different picture emerges when looking at the 1998 age-sex pyramid. and during the Great Patriotic War they moved to the upper segments of the pyramid and smoothed out to some extent. But on the other hand, the pyramid clearly reflects the evolution of the birth rate in Russia in the post-war period. This is the time of the modern demographic history of Russia, when the country lived in relatively "calm" conditions, without wars, mass repressions, epidemics and other catastrophic phenomena. Demographic changes during these years were of an evolutionary nature and were determined solely by the restructuring of demographic behavior.
Age-sex pyramid of the population of Russia, 1998
Chart 3.9
It was during this period that the action of global factors unfolded "without interference", which in their totality led to the inevitable offensive already in the 90s. the demographic collapse experienced by our country. Four stages of the demographic evolution of Russia in the postwar years are clearly visible. The first of them is the time before the beginning of the 60s, when the birth rate was practically stable, and fluctuations in the number of births were determined mainly by the influence of changes in the age structure of women of reproductive age. The need for children and the reproductive attitudes of the majority of the population were still relatively high in these years. Then, a “pit” is clearly visible on the pyramid, falling on the period of a sharp drop in the number of births and the birth rate in the 60s. The reason for this decline was a radical decrease in the need for children for most families, which occurred against the backdrop of a relative improvement in the standard of living of the population. The third stage is the 70s - the first half of the 80s. The number of births during this period grew, mainly under the influence of shifts in the age structure of the population and, in part, more complete satisfaction of the need for two children (in the first half of the 1980s), which was reflected in the lengthening of the diagram bars corresponding to these years.
And, finally, the lower part of the pyramid shows a sharp, landslide drop in the number of births and fertility, which began in 1987 and took in the 90s. catastrophic forms. The base of the pyramid is continuously narrowing. Its shape is becoming more and more similar to the type of pyramid corresponding to the regressive type of population reproduction. The age-sex pyramid of 1998 clearly testifies to the entry of our country into a period of deep and long-term depopulation, the way out of which is becoming more and more problematic. Further evolution of the reproduction of the population of our country in this direction will lead to the fact that its age-sex structure will acquire by the middle of the 21st century. the view shown in Graph 3.10 based on the 1998 UN forecast (lower version). We see in front of us an old and dying population, the shape of the age-sex pyramid of which really resembles a funeral urn.
Chart 3.10
Age and sex structure of the Russian population, 2050 t. UN forecast. Bottom option 30
At the same time, the authors of the forecast are actually very optimistic in their predictions. They come from overestimated future fertility trends in Russia. According to the lower version of the forecast, starting from 2000-2005, the birth rate will be fixed at the level of 1.25 children per 1 woman of reproductive age and will remain so until the end of the forecast period, i.e. until 2050. What is this forecast based on? completely incomprehensible and not commented on in any way.
The reality will be much more tragic if, of course, nothing is done to stop the decline in the birth rate and depopulation in our country.
