Expert of the Center, Kravchenko L.I.
Occupying the first place in the world in terms of area, Russia is rapidly losing its position in the demographic field. If in 1991 the Russian Federation was in 6th place in terms of population, then in 2012 - 10th place, by 2050 Russia will take 14th place. The reduction in the population in such a vast territory creates a threat, first of all, to the territorial integrity of the state. The situation is obvious: the country is going through a demographic crisis. But the question remains open: by what factors and causes is it caused and does it affect the entire population or is it selective?
This study is devoted to the analysis of this problem.
The demographic problem in Russia has been discussed for a long time. Since the mid-90s, the country has experienced a decline in population. In 2010, the process of population decline was stopped. According to Rosstat, in 2012 the population of Russia increased for the first time and in the first half of 2013 amounted to 143.3 million people. (Fig.1).
Fig.1. Population of Russia 1990-2013, in millions
The increase in the population with the continued natural decline was ensured by the migration balance. In 2013, according to Rosstat, Russia for the first time overcame the natural population decline. However, the dynamics of change natural increase demonstrates the excess of births over deaths in only a few federal districts of Russia. Remains open question– at whose expense did this “demographic miracle” happen? Does it have ethnic and confessional roots or is it due to material factors (the economic well-being of the regions)?
Until 2009, the North Caucasus remained the only federal district with a positive birth rate. In 2012, the number of such federal districts increased to four: North Caucasus, Urals, Siberian and Far East. The increase in the Far Eastern Federal District is due to an increase in the increase in the Republic of Sakha (ethnic composition: Yakuts - 49%, Russians - 30%). In the Siberian Federal District, a 44% increase is provided by population growth in the republics of Buryatia, Tyva, Khakassia, Altai, by 56% due to regions with a share of the Russian population of 83-88%. In the Urals Federal District, the positive balance was achieved mainly due to the Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs (the share of the Russian population is 63.5% and 59.7%, respectively). (Fig.2). AT In the first half of 2013, the dynamics continued.
Fig.2. Dynamics of natural population growth by federal districts, pers. (according to Rosstat)
In the next two years, natural population growth is expected in the Volga and Southern Federal Districts. At the moment, in the Volga Federal District, there is a positive balance in five national republics (Tatarstan, Chuvashia, Mari El, Bashkortostan and Udmurtia), as well as in the Orenburg region (75% of Russians) and the Perm Territory (83% of Russians). In the Southern Federal District, there is a positive balance in Kalmykia and the Astrakhan region (61% of Russians). The growth in the district will be achieved due to the excess of births over deaths in the Krasnodar Territory (approximately in 2013) and the Republic of Adygea (approximately in 2014).
Most demographically disadvantaged Central federal district will enter positive dynamics not earlier than 2017. According to the data for the first half of 2013, natural population decline has been preserved in all regions of the Central region, while Moscow is the leader in terms of the positive balance of the natural population movement.
Table 1. Forecast of natural population growth by federal districts
|
Cent- |
North- |
North Caucasus- |
Volga- |
Uralic |
Siberian |
Far Eastern |
||
|
Year of achievement |
forecast - 2017 |
forecast - 2015 |
forecast - 2014 |
always gain |
forecast - 2014 |
|||
|
Subjects that will provide positive |
Moscow, Moscow region |
Republican- |
Kalmykia and Astra |
6 res- |
Tatarstan, Mari El, Bashkortostan |
Khanty- |
Republic of Altai, Buryatia, Tyva, Khakassia, Zabai- |
Sakha (Yakutia) |
The current state of natural population growth is characterized by a steady increase in the birth rate and a slower decline in mortality. This is most likely due to the transfer increased fertility a generation earlier (the years of perestroika) in the USSR.
The coefficient of increase in the birth rate, showing how many times the birth rate has increased by districts, indicates an accelerated growth in the North Caucasus (by 1.7 times), the Urals and the Central federal districts. (Fig.3).
Fig.3. The ratio of the 2012 birth and death rate to the 2000 birth and death rate
With regard to the growth rate of mortality, there is a slowdown in all districts, except for the North Caucasus.
In absolute terms, the birth rate in the North Caucasian Federal District is significantly inferior to the birth rate in other districts. However, in terms of relative indicators (birth and death rate per 1,000 people), the North Caucasus region demonstrates the best indicators - high birth rate and low mortality. On average, the birth rate in this district is higher than the average Russian birth rate by 4.1 units. , in terms of mortality lower by 5 units. The most disadvantaged region in terms of demography - Central District- in terms of birth rate 1.5 times and in terms of mortality 1.7 times worse than the indicators of the North Caucasus Federal District. (Fig.4).
Fig.4. Birth and death rates per 1,000 people by federal districts
The birth-to-mortality ratio in this okrug exceeded 2, while in the Urals, Siberia, and Far East only in last years only 1 was achieved. And although each federal district in dynamics shows an increase in the gap between births and deaths, the highest rates are in the North Caucasus region. (Fig.5).
Fig.5. Birth to death ratio by county
In recent years, the top ten leaders in terms of natural population growth have not changed. So, growth in the Republic of Dagestan outstrips this indicator in all federal districts with positive dynamics (except for the North Caucasus), and growth in the Tyumen region and the Chechen Republic in 2012 outstrips the positive balance in the Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts.
The greatest decline in population was noted in a number of regions of the Central Federal District. The absolute leader in this indicator is the Moscow region, while Moscow is in the top ten in terms of natural growth. St. Petersburg and Leningrad region have the same dynamics.
Table 2. Leaders in population growth in 2012
Table 3. Leaders in population decline in 2012
Traditionally, population decline is observed in regions with a predominantly Russian population. This is the most important effect. Among the demographic leaders are the national republics with a low proportion of the Russian population, as well as the Tyumen region and the city of Moscow, in which growth was achieved through immigration and a high standard of living for citizens.
Based on the hypothesis that the natural decline directly depends on the share of the Russian population, let us consider the dynamics of the natural population movement in 20 regions with a share of the Russian population above 90% and 9 regions with a share from 1 to 31%.
Regions with maximum percentage of the Russian people in ethnic composition show a decreasing natural population decline, but the prospect of achieving an excess of birth rates over death rates in the coming years is unattainable. (Fig.6).
Fig.6. The balance of natural increase in 20 subjects of the Russian Federation with a share of the Russian population over 90%, in persons.
At the same time, in 9 subjects with a share of the Russian population from 0.7% up to 31%, the birth rate significantly exceeds the death rate, with the leaders being the Islamic republics of the North Caucasus. (Fig.7).
Fig.7.Balance of natural increase in 9 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, pers.
In 2020, 2025 and 2030, the so-called "baby boom" will affect only national republics. In the Chechen Republic, Ingushetia, Tyva, Dagestan, the Republic of Altai, Yakutia and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, a population explosion will be observed every year.
Table 4. Regions with the highest expected birth rate
|
Chechen Republic |
Chechen Republic |
Chechen Republic |
|
The Republic of Ingushetia |
The Republic of Ingushetia |
The Republic of Ingushetia |
|
Tyva Republic |
Tyva Republic |
Tyva Republic |
|
The Republic of Dagestan |
The Republic of Dagestan |
The Republic of Dagestan |
|
Altai Republic |
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) |
Altai Republic |
|
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) |
Altai Republic |
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) |
|
Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
|
|
Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
The Republic of Buryatia |
|
|
Kabardino-Balkarian Republic |
Republic of North Ossetia-Alania |
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug |
|
Republic of Kalmykia |
Republic of Kalmykia |
Karachay-Cherkess Republic |
The worst birth rates in these years will be demonstrated by regions with a Russian population. In 2030, another Orthodox nation, the Mordvins, will also be far from the baby boom. The top ten regions with the lowest birth rates in 2020-2030 include mainly the regions of the Central Federal District.
Table 5. Regions with the lowest expected birth rate
|
Moscow city |
Moscow city |
St. Petersburg |
|
St. Petersburg |
St. Petersburg |
Moscow city |
|
Moscow region |
Leningrad region |
Leningrad region |
|
Tula region |
Moscow region |
Tula region |
|
Murmansk region |
Tula region |
Smolensk region |
|
Leningrad region |
Smolensk region |
Voronezh region |
|
Yaroslavl region |
Yaroslavl region |
Moscow region |
|
Ivanovo region |
Murmansk region |
Ryazan Oblast |
|
Kamchatka Krai |
Vladimir region |
The Republic of Mordovia |
|
Magadan Region |
Ivanovo region |
Tambov Region |
Thus, the demographic crisis is mediated by ethnic selectivity. The decline of the Russian population continues and has already led to its reduction by more than 8 million people since 1989. Since 2002, the number of ethnic groups professing Islam has increased. The number of Uzbeks increased by 2 times, by 1.6 times Tajiks, which is explained by migration flows. The number of the Russian Islamic population has increased, while the peoples living on the territory of the North Caucasus Federal District have demonstrated high growth rates. Of the Orthodox peoples, the number of Armenians and Ossetians increased. There was a reduction of such Orthodox ethnic groups like Russians, Udmurts, Mordovians, Chuvashs, Maris. Since 2009, the population of Udmurtia began to grow due to natural increase, in the republics of Mari El and Chuvashia - since 2012, in Mordovia, the decline is still preserved, the number of the Russian population continues to decline due to the natural decline in the population.
Table 6. Ethnic composition of Russia according to the census, in million people
|
1989 |
2002 |
2010 |
|
|
All population |
147,02 |
145,16 |
142,8565 |
|
Russians |
119,87 |
115,87 |
111,0169 |
|
Tatars |
5,52 |
5,56 |
5,310649 |
|
Ukrainians |
4,36 |
2,94 |
1,927988 |
|
Bashkirs |
1,35 |
1,67 |
1,584554 |
|
Chuvash |
1,77 |
1,64 |
1,435872 |
|
Chechens |
1,36 |
1,43136 |
|
|
Armenians |
0,53 |
1,13 |
1,182388 |
Based on the 2010 census data on the share of the Russian population in the population of the subjects, one can speak of a reduction in the Russian population in 2012 by 88,000 people, while the population of other nationalities increased by 108,000 people.
The rapid decline in the proportion of the Russian population in the national republics creates threats national security countries: the connecting role of the Russian people is lost, regions appear that do not identify themselves with Russia, there is a rupture of ties between peoples in the spatial field of Russian civilization. Demographic situation in the region becomes an indicator of separatist sentiments. The most unstable in this regard are such regions as Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya, with a share of titular peoples over 90%, as well as the Republic of Tyva. These republics also have the lowest proportion of people who speak Russian. Potential hotbeds of tension can be those regions where the share of titular peoples exceeds 50%, and this share is increasing due to natural growth.
Table 7. Regions with the greatest potential threat of nationalist discord with the Russian people and separatism
|
Subject of the federation |
Share of the titular people |
Share of Russians |
Share of those who speak Russian |
|
The Republic of Dagestan |
|||
|
The Republic of Ingushetia |
|||
|
Chechen Republic |
|||
|
Tyva Republic |
|||
|
Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria |
|||
|
Chuvash Republic |
|||
|
Republic of North Ossetia |
|||
|
Republic of Kalmykia |
|||
|
Republic of Tatarstan |
|||
|
Republic of Karachay-Cherkess |
Let us introduce for further analysis the concept of the “demographic stability” coefficient, allowing cluster analysis.
du 
, where
N(t ) - the number of people for the corresponding year (the years of the census are selected), P / C - the ratio of the total birth rate to the total death rate. The introduced coefficient indicates population growth due to the current natural increase and the demographic result of a long-term previous increase.
The threshold value in the case of a harmonious combination of positive signs of demographic stability (previous growth and current growth) is 2. If the coefficient is less than two, then the conclusion follows that something is wrong. Either before or now. It is from here that the possibility of a semi-quantitative assessment of "stability" follows. The calculation takes into account those peoples who do not have statehood outside of Russia (to eliminate the error associated with migration flows). (Fig.8).
Fig.8. Coefficients of demographic stability of the peoples of Russia
This figure shows that there is also a confessional feature "responsible" for demographic success. The coefficient of demographic stability has a pronounced confessional character: for peoples professing Islam it is equal to 3.85; for Buddhists and shamanists - 2.86, for Orthodox peoples - 1.83. Ossetians are the only Orthodox people with a coefficient higher than 2. The peoples of the Islamic area, Buddhist and other beliefs are demographically reviving more actively. Orthodoxy, for some reason, is still combined with the worst indicators of demographic development. Probably, the ideological mission of Orthodoxy has not yet become an effective factor influencing the reproductive tradition. Mordovians and Russians, who have not yet reached the level of self-reproduction of the population, have the worst indicators.
Thus, the problem of the demographic crisis in Russia is mediated not only by ethnicity, but also by a mental factor, in particular, the role and significance of the ideological function of religion. The problem of the revival of Orthodoxy is most acutely reflected in the Russian people. Therefore, indeed, one can speak of an ethno- and confessional electoral demographic crisis.
In the work "State policy of withdrawing Russia from the demographic crisis" a four-factor model is given to explain the demographic situation in the country. It includes the material factor, the ideological and spiritual state of society, civilizational identity Russian state and the role of state policy in managing demographic processes.
Usually, the excessively exaggerated importance of the material factor actually affects the results of the natural movement of the population only to some extent. The emphasis of government demographic policy on maternity capital does not particularly affect demographics and does not explain the observed positive phenomena in the current birth rate. More important is the psychological state of the population. Thus, the stress of the 1998 default led to an increase in the population decline in 1999, while the 2009 crisis slowed down the process of reducing the population decline.
Improvement in fertility rates depends on the number of people entering childbearing age. correlation between those born and those who have entered childbearing age is greatest when the childbearing age is 30 years, as well as 25 and 29 (the birth rate of one year was compared with the birth rate of the year equal to the difference between the compared year and the childbearing age). This correlation coincides with the actual data on the distribution of births according to the age of the mother. (Fig.9).
It follows that the current improvement in fertility rates in Russia is due to the high birth rate growth in the 1980s. This was a short-lived psychological effect of perestroika. In the future, the birth rate should slow down, as the new generation of people of childbearing age are the children of the 90s, when there was a sharp drop in the birth rate. If we take 25 years as the average childbearing age, then starting from 2013 the growth rate will slow down, however, if the childbearing age is 30 years, then over the next five years we can still expect an increase in the birth rate, but from 2017 it will begin to decline steadily. (Fig.10).
The material factor does not explain anything at all in terms of successful natural movement in national regions where the standard of living is low. Fig. 11 reflects the slowdown in the decline in 2010 as a consequence of the 2009 crisis for the subjects with the largest share of the Russian population. (Fig.11).
In this way, the demographic problem is only to a small extent determined by the material factor, the ideological and spiritual state of society has a significant influence.
The manifestations of the decadent ideological and spiritual state of the Russian and other Orthodox peoples are the following:
value crisis;
Late marriage: decline in the number of people married at the age of 18-24 and growth in the range of 25-34 years (Fig. 12);
Divorces. The number of divorces per 1000 people in the regions with the greatest population decline is 3.9-4.8, in the republics of the North Caucasus 0.9-3;
The sexualization of youth;
extramarital reproduction;
Nuclearization of the family;
The problem of lonely people;
Abortions. Since 2000, there has been a trend towards a decrease in the number of abortions, which is largely due to the practice of widespread use of contraceptives. But Russia still has the highest abortion rate in Europe. AT absolute terms the number of abortions in 2012 amounted to 1.06 million (for comparison, in 2000 - 2.13 million);
Alcoholization, drug addiction, substance abuse;
suicide;
Gender gap and specifics of family relations;
Confessional basis of demographic variability.
The government refuses to notice the fact that the low birth rate and high death rate in our country are connected primarily with the spiritual state of society. Yes, in Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of October 9, 2007 N 1351 "On approval of the Concept of demographic policy Russian Federation for the period up to 2025" it is written, that "the current demographic situation in the Russian Federation is largely determined by the socio-economic processes that took place in the 20th century."
The main reasons for the low birth rates are named: “the low monetary income of many families, the lack of normal living conditions, modern family structure (focus on small families, an increase in the number of single-parent families), hard physical labor of a significant part of working women (about 15 percent), working conditions that do not meet sanitary and hygienic standards, low reproductive health, a high number of abortions (abortions) ". However, if you look at the statistics, you can see that it is in the national republics, especially the North Caucasian Federal District, that the population with the lowest income lives, whose birth rate is not affected by either the income level or the 2009 crisis.
A new problem exacerbating the demographic crisis in the country is the immigration challenge to national identity. At present, the stabilization of the population in Russia has been achieved due to the migration balance (in 2012, the number of remaining migrants was 294,930 people).
The first years after the collapse of the USSR were characterized by two streams of migration: the Russian population from the former Soviet republics to Russia and the Russian population from Russia to European countries, the USA and Israel. At the first stage, there was an inflow and outflow of highly qualified personnel (Fig. 13).
A noticeable decrease in the outflow of the population by the end of the 1990s. In the 2000s, the outflow of skilled labor is decreasing, but there is an increase in labor immigrants from a number of CIS republics. The coincidence of the dynamics of migration inflows of the population from the CIS republics (Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, the republics of Central Asia) testifies to their labor quality. The exception is migrants from Kazakhstan, who are most likely the Russian population or assimilated Kazakhs who moved to Russia not for labor, but for permanent residence. (Fig.14).
In 2012, 91% of the total migration increase was in the CIS countries, of which 50% - these are representatives of the republics professing Islam (Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan), together with Kazakhstan - 63.5%. The influx, on the one hand, of a low-skilled workforce, on the other hand, an increase in representatives of other religious faiths, raises the issue of an immigration challenge to national identity.
In the Concept of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025, one of the tasks in the field of demographic policy sounds like “attracting migrants in accordance with the needs of the demographic and social economic development, taking into account the need for their social adaptation and integration”. This means that the current migration situation in the country is a consequence of the implementation of a specific task, which clearly does not correspond to the national security of the country.
Further, the concept states that measures in the field of migration policy will be: assistance in the voluntary resettlement of compatriots living abroad; attracting qualified foreign specialists, attracting young people from foreign countries (primarily from the member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Republic of Latvia, the Republic of Lithuania and the Republic of Estonia) for education and training in the Russian Federation with the possible provision of advantages in obtaining Russian citizenship upon graduation, creating conditions for the integration of immigrants into Russian society and the development of tolerance in relations between the local population and immigrants from other countries in order to prevent ethno-confessional conflicts. It was not possible to attract qualified foreign specialists, a small number of compatriots returned from abroad, but instead of the declared attraction of skilled labor, labor migrants went to the country, who turned out to be called upon to solve the demographic problem.
Finally, when deciding demographic problem the instrument of migration policy was used, which in turn led only to visible improvements in the demographic situation and created more serious problems related to the immigration challenge of Russian identity and the integration of a new ethnic community into the multinational Russian people.
Solving the problems of demographic policy by attracting migrants and raising the standard of living of the population is not effective, because it completely ignores the fact that the current demographic situation is caused by a spiritual crisis, especially of the Russian people. The crisis, which is already obvious, is of an ethno-selective nature, but this fact is hushed up or not noticed, in any case, there is no adequate state political reaction to it.
Table 8. Peoples of Russia. Ranking by population (largest to smallest)
Note:
* Data on fertility, mortality and natural increase are estimated or not available.
** Peoples of the Republic of Dagestan
Color designation (column peoples) according to confessional characteristics.
Table 8 presents data on the demographic state of the peoples of Russia with more than 100,000 people in 2010. Based on these data, the following conclusions can be drawn.
In general, such peoples as Chechens, Armenians, Avars, Ossetians, Dargins, Buryats, Yakuts, Kumyks, Ingush, Lezgins, Tuvans, Karachays, Kalmyks, Laks, Cossacks, Tabasarans, Uzbeks, Tajiks do not need additional measures to stimulate the birth rate. , Balkars. Their number and share in the population of the country has increased, the birth rate is above the national average, the death rate is below the national average, the number of births exceeds the number of deaths. These peoples have retained their spiritual identity, have not accepted the pernicious values of the consumer society and demonstrate a high potential for further demographic growth.
An effective state policy of stimulating the birth rate is carried out in relation to the Tatars, Bashkirs, Chuvashs, Udmurts, Kabardians and Komi. Although their number and share in the population of the country has declined, the peoples have been able to achieve natural growth, the potential for their further demographic recovery is high birth rates and low death rates. These peoples demonstrate cohesion, national self-identification, which is largely due to the presence of their own public education within Russia. They also retained traditional moral and spiritual values to a greater extent.
It is necessary to take additional measures to stimulate the birth rate for Russians, Mordovians and Adyghes. An analysis of the situation of the Russian people speaks of an electoral policy of reducing its numbers: it is the only people in Russia that does not have its own statehood - it is Russian statehood, the birth rate remains below the average for Russia, mortality rates exceed the average, the number and proportion of the population continues to decline steadily. The borrowed values of the consumer society, which decompose the spiritual basis of the Russian people, the lack of cohesion that unites national ideas and feelings of pride in one's country lead to the loss of original spiritual guidelines, which finds its physical expression in the natural decline of the Russian population and the reduction of its numbers.
But it is the Russian people that is the bond of all Russian peoples, Orthodoxy is the spiritual base that can unite different confessions on the principle of peaceful coexistence and harmonious development. An awareness of the described threat and an adequate state policy are required.World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision// United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2013
The nations are listed, the number of which, as of 2002, exceeded 100,000 people, and which did not have statehood outside the Russian Federation.
State policy of Russia's withdrawal from the demographic crisis / Monograph. V.I. Yakunin, S.S. Sulakshin, V.E. Bagdasaryan and others. Under the general editorship of S.S. Sulakshina. 2nd ed. - M.: CJSC ≪Publishing house ≪Economics≫, Scientific expert, 2007. - 888 p.
Of course, it is far from last. However, this does not mean that there are no problems. Consider next what is natural population decline.
If in Russia at the current moment, even with the existing number of births, there were deaths per 1 thousand people. as much as in the Western European states, the demographic situation would be much better. Natural population decline is one of the most actual problems today in the country. It arises as a result of the excess of deaths over births.
According to statisticians, if the number of deaths today remained at the level of the 80s. of the last century, with the current rate of births, then the position of our country in terms of population would be much higher. At the same time, it should be emphasized that this is not about reproduction, which forms the future dynamics. It is determined by the total birth and death rates. Their difference, in turn, reflects coefficient of natural increase/decrease in population.
I must say that the low level of reproduction for the state is no less dangerous than is confirmed by statistical data. In the previous 13 years, 20.4 million people died in Russia, and from 1992 to 2004 - 28.2 million. The contribution of the increase in the mortality rate was four times higher than the decrease in the birth rate. Despite the fact that different sources of Rosstat contain different indicators, it is quite possible to analyze the general trends of depopulation using them.
First year in recent history, in which it was recorded natural population decline is 1992. From the next, 1993, its figure is below 750 thousand people. didn't go down. In 1994, for the first time in the post-war period, the death rate exceeded 2.3 million people. Accordingly, increased natural population decline. it It wasn't a one-time outburst. A new negative trend has emerged. This is confirmed by statistical figures: from 1993 to 1996 it amounted to more than 3250 thousand people, and in the following years it increased to 3350 thousand people. In the 21st century (from 2001 to 2004), the figure exceeded 3550 thousand people.
Population decline compensated to some extent by the influx of migrants. In 1994, their number was 846 thousand people. Due to this, 95% of the natural loss was compensated. At the same time, the analysis of information for all other years indicates a systematic decrease in the compensatory role of the migration process. In general, over 13 years of the depopulation situation, about 35.2% (3.6 million people) were compensated. In 1992-1996, the country received more than 2325 thousand people through migration, and from 2001 to 2004 - only 282 thousand. At present, in fact, they do not compensate for the increasing natural decline.
Experts associate the reduction in the number of migrants with a decrease in the so-called migration potential in the states in the post-Soviet space. Throughout the 90s. people from neighboring countries continuously came to Russia. At the same time, Russians prevailed among them. To a lesser extent, among the visitors were people from Kazakhstan, Transcaucasia, Cf. Asia. In general, about 370 people returned to Russia for every 1,000 Russians who arrived in 1989-2003 in all neighboring countries.
Most of the people left the country went to Belarus, least of all - to Azerbaijan. Due to the influx, the number of Russians decreased not by 7, but only by 4 million people. According to the 2002 census, about 1.5 million people were added additionally due to the change of some Belarusians and Ukrainians of their nationality.
Meanwhile, experts say that the main reason for the reduction in the flow of people from neighboring countries is not a decrease in the scale of potential, but a change in migration attitudes among those who could not return to their historical homeland during the first few years after the collapse of the Union. This, in turn, was influenced by the policy pursued by the Russian authorities.
The country's leadership, in particular, was unable to take advantage of the favorable situation. In connection with discrimination, expressed in the adoption of laws on language, citizenship, suffrage, etc., in some states the Russian-speaking population was ready to return to the country. However, on their way, citizens encountered obstacles created by the authorities. Accordingly, all their impulses to return back to Russia quickly faded.
In the postwar years, France, despite no less difficulties in economic sphere, was able to repatriate from Sev. Africa is about 1.5-2 million people, that is, almost all compatriots. Germany returned about 10-12 million people, Japan - 4.5 million. This allowed countries to increase their population by 5-6%. The post-war situation in these states indicates a colossal economic and political gain. Finding itself in a similar situation, Russia almost until the end of the 90s. pursued a policy contrary to their national interests. This is indicated primarily by the adoption immediately after independence of the law "On Citizenship". This normative act established a number of obstacles for persons returning to Russia after 1992.
However, it is worth saying that until 1999, even with a natural decline, migration flows held back the decrease in the population in Russia. From 1992 to 1998 the figure was 279 thousand people per year (total value - 1950 thousand people). In the next 6 years, the reduction was already impressive - 4785 thousand people. Thus, during the period of depopulation, the number of citizens decreased by 4.9-6.8 million people.
Unlike other developed countries, depopulation in Russia has a number of features. What explains the natural decline in the population? In Russia, the decline in the birth rate to such an extent that descendants are able to replace only 3/5 of the parental generation is supplemented by increased mortality. The latter, in turn, reduces life expectancy by 12-15 years, in comparison with other states. This led to the neighborhood in the ratings with countries such as Vietnam, Guatemala, Honduras, Egypt, etc. There is no state in Europe in which the life expectancy of people would be less than in Russia.
It must be said that natural decline is not something new for the world community. Even at the turn of the 19th-20th centuries. France was in a state of depopulation. In the second half of the 20th century, some European states faced such a situation. In the early 70s. Against the background of quite favorable conditions for development in the post-war period, for the first time the number of deaths exceeded the number of births. This situation continues to this day.
A natural decline has been observed since 1975 in Austria. Over the next two decades, there has been a meager increase in the population (1 per 1,000). A similar situation was in Belgium and Italy, and in the 90s. - in Sweden, Spain, Greece. In the second half of the 80s. natural decline was noted in the Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, and some other states of Eastern Europe.
From 1999 to 2004 in Russia, the number of deaths annually exceeds those born by 800-950 thousand people. At the same time, the total number is reduced annually by 750-900 thousand. The situation is complicated by the fact that migration has lost its compensatory role. This means that the rate of population decline in Russia is determined solely by natural decline. Thus, it can be stated that the state is in the deepest
Historian Jack Andrew Goldstone, in his book Revolution and Revolt at the Beginning modern world» (Revolution and Rebellion in the Early
Modern World) proves that the great European revolutions, the English and French, have something in common with the great Asian uprisings that destroyed the Ottoman Empire and removed the ruling dynasties of Japan and China from power. All of these crises arose when political, economic, and social institutions faced the simultaneous pressures of population growth and shrinking available resources.
In the early 1700s, deaths from epidemic diseases and starvation began to decline throughout Europe, while the birth rate remained the same, which led to an increase in population. A significant excess of births over deaths during a significant part of the beginning of the New Age gave rise to a population boom. Demographer Michael Anderson writes that in 1750-1850, in 100 years, the population of Europe doubled. The "era of democratic revolutions" in the late 1700s, including the French, coincided with an increase in the proportion of young people in the population.
A large, young and violent rural population was the main factor in social tension in France on the eve and during the revolution. During the XVIII century. the population of France grew by 8-10 million people, while in the previous 100 years it had increased by only 1 million. Around 1772, the abbot of Tver began the first thorough census of the population of France. According to him, the population was 26 million people.
It is believed that by 1789, on the eve of the revolution, the number of subjects of Louis XVI reached 30 million people, more than 20% of the total population of Europe, not counting Russia. According to a study published by George Mason University, these numbers should have played a role. There is reason to believe that they changed the political and economic situation in France. And, we may add, cost Louis the throne and head.
Similarly, Russia's population doubled between 1850 and the outbreak of World War I. From 1855 to 1913 population Russian Empire increased from 73 million to about 168 million people. The existing order could not provide food and shelter for so many people. AT countryside the main problem was the lack of land. Rapid population growth has led to the average size land allotment decreased from about 5 hectares in 1861 to less than 3 hectares in 1900.
Too much in the West rural population swallowed up the industry, but Russia was able to place only 1 /3
population growth. There was a growing understanding that if nothing was done, the village would explode. The peasants had a simple solution to the problem - to confiscate all noble lands.
In an article presented at the 2001 European Demographic Conference, Russian historian Lev Protasov suggested that in the period leading up to the Russian Revolution, demographic factors played an important role in fueling popular discontent. It is curious that a strikingly large number of radicals who provoked the onset of the revolution were born in 1880. “The generation of the 1880s,” Protasov says, “produced almost 60% of the radicals and dominated the left factions: 62% of the Socialist-Revolutionaries, 58% of the Bolsheviks, 63 % of "people's" socialists and A7% of Mensheviks. The emergence of a significant number of young radicals at the beginning of the 20th century. been noticed by historians.
The peasants baked the kids like pancakes, which is why the villages were overpopulated and “overheated”. Thanks to advances in medicine, sanitation, and improved nutrition, child and infant mortality was falling. “In Russia, the political upheavals of 1905 and 1917 were “prepared” not only for economic and political reasons, Protasov concludes, but also for the operation of the laws of nature. The population explosion of the last decades of the XIX century. not only exacerbated the problems of modernization, but also accelerated the marginalization of society and created an excess of "human material" for the vanguard of the future creators of the revolution.
In the past, explosive population growth has been a source of problems. But today the population is declining. The result can be just as devastating: since in all developed countries pensions are paid out of taxes collected from young workers, a shrinking and aging population will become a problem just when Western societies will most need young people.
Almost no attention was paid to the problems of population reproduction in Russian textbooks on political economy. Basically, they considered the issues of reproduction of the labor force as one of the factors in the production process. In the research literature since 1959-1960, much attention has been paid to the analysis of the deficit labor resources.
However, statistics on labor resources remained closed, which did not contribute to an increase in the level of scientific development of this problem. Such an attitude to the study of the problem was explained by the lack of demand for practice: in this area of management, the central government, as a rule, made strong-willed decisions.
Western economic science and educational literature are more interested in the problem of population. This is due to the needs of a developed market economy. The number and structure of the population have an impact on consumer demand, determine the strategy of the state in the labor market, investment and social policy. Russia's transition to market economy obliges economic science to change its attitude to the study of the problems of population reproduction both in the country as a whole and in the regional aspect.
Economics views population as the most important factor economic and social development and at the same time as an object of such development. This approach is a reflection of reality: the population is the only source of the country's labor resources, the concern for the reproduction of which is one of the main functions of any state. The more complete and reliable the statistics on the size and structure of the country's population, the more practically useful the recommendations of economists in determining public policy employment, investment, income redistribution, etc.
Considering the practical significance of changes in population size and its structure, almost all economically developed countries are making attempts to plan demographic processes. As the experience of these countries has shown, the success of planning depends on the accuracy of diagnosing the causes of population changes, the quality and timeliness of censuses, on the use of mathematical methods in modeling the behavior of the population, on taking into account key factors - biological, cultural, social and economic, influencing its dynamics.
However, modeling alone cannot reveal the behavioral factors of such dynamics, without which, as well as without taking into account the influence of the environment, it is impossible to carry out a realistic population policy. There is also an inverse relationship: population is a key factor in the economic and social planning at all its stages and levels - international, national, regional. However, population forecasts, as a rule, were not confirmed by life.
In this regard, research into the causes and consequences of population growth and discussions about them are becoming increasingly global. Attention to this problem especially intensified in the second half of the 20th century. This was due to the threat of exhaustion natural resources due to the increase in the pace economic growth in most countries of the world and the accelerating growth of the world's population.
This problem became the subject of consideration at the World Population Conferences in Rome (1954), Bucharest (1974) and Mexico City (1984), during which attempts were made to identify political means to improve the management of population growth and resources in the interests of mankind.
In the 1960s and 1970s there was a “neo-Malthusian fear” of the consequences rapid growth population, especially in developing countries, and growth in personal consumption in industrialized countries. This concern was reflected in the reports of the Club of Rome. Particularly gloomy were the forecasts for the rapid increase in the population of developing countries and the threat of famine.
However, in the last decade, the demographic situation has changed: there has been a trend towards a decrease in the birth rate, and, consequently, a slowdown in population growth.
Currently, several patterns have been identified and are operating in changing the dynamics of population growth and its structure, which have to be taken into account when developing economic strategy at the national level.
First, there is a slowdown in the rate of natural population growth as the socio-economic level of the country's development rises. Since the level of economic development of the country is determined by many interrelated factors, the dynamics of population growth is influenced by no less of them. Among the main factors influencing this process is the reappraisal of values due to the growth of incomes of the population, the increase in the cultural level of the population, the improvement of health care, and the conscious regulation of the birth of children in the family.
In the same direction, there is an increase in the employment of women in social production in economically developed countries, which was facilitated by an increase in the educational level of women, the creation of new jobs in the field of social services, and the elimination of discrimination in their wages. Appropriate laws adopted in developed countries and their strict observance were used as tools for realizing women's rights to work.
Secondly, the largest decline in fertility rates and natural population growth throughout the world occurred at the expense of developing countries. The main reason for this trend is the widespread desire of countries with highest level fertility to implement family planning as part national socio-economic policy.
The governments and the public in these countries have abandoned the macro-social model, which denies special population control and is based on the assumption that economic and social changes in the country should themselves lead to a change in population. By the 1990s, the hostility to family planning programs that had prevailed among the leaders of the developing world had subsided. Birth control began to be seen as part of a policy aimed at improving health care, social security, and education.
In developing countries during these years, two models of influence on the reduction of the family size are being implemented. The "instrumental" model considers the entire population from the standpoint of its ability to regulate the family and provides for a set of external measures to influence this process. The model of "disobedience" focuses on deviant groups (teenagers, paupers, etc.), against which a variety of methods are used - psychological, economic (incentives and coercion), etc.
As a result, the last 10-15 years are estimated by experts as a historical turning point in world demographic development, characterized by a reduction in the rate of world population growth. The policy of birth control was especially effective in China and the countries of South America.
Thirdly, there was a reassessment of the importance of the population in the economic development of the country. As follows from the analysis of the economic development of countries with high natural population growth, poverty is partly due to the inadequate use of human and technological resources. Population growth, experts say, is not necessarily an obstacle to development. The productive capacity of human beings as wealth-creators has been underestimated. Population pressure can drive economic growth and social change. This is evidenced by the experience of new industrial countries, China, etc.
Fourthly, in economically developed countries, a tendency towards a decline in the birth rate and natural population growth was clearly revealed. For countries Western Europe characterized by fluctuations in population dynamics since the 1920s. The fall in population growth during the Second World War gave way to the post-war "baby boom" and from the mid-1950s to its further increase due to the policy of stimulating the birth rate. Since the end of the 1960s, these countries have seen a decline in the birth rate, a trend towards zero population growth, and in some of them the death rate exceeds the birth rate, i.e. there is an absolute reduction in the population (Germany, Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Denmark, etc.).
Fifth, all economically developed countries, and primarily European ones, are experiencing an aging process of the population, which will intensify over the coming decades. According to experts, by 2025 a quarter of the population of European countries will be aged 65 years and older. The average age of the population is steadily increasing. This is expressed in the fact that the economically active population is becoming more and more elderly, and among those over 65 years of age, the proportion of elderly people is growing. The fall in natural population growth and its aging have far-reaching consequences for economic growth and production efficiency, which would be a big mistake to neglect.
First of all, one has to take into account that these processes are followed by a slowdown (and in some countries an absolute decrease) in the economic activity of the population. In this situation, the prospects for economic growth in countries with high natural population and labor force growth are more encouraging than in European countries.
Population aging increases economic burden on a relatively shrinking active population. Such a situation (with unchanged socio-economic conditions) can lead to conflicts between generations, hence the need to foresee them and search for means to prevent them.
Among the consequences of aging, economic active population Western researchers point out a decrease in the ability to master new professions and adapt to new technologies (from the point of view of production efficiency, aging has a negative impact, since over time the value wages increases and productivity decreases with age. In this regard, researchers draw far-reaching conclusions about the loss of competitiveness of enterprises and entire countries caused by the aging of the economically active population.
These tendencies cannot be neglected, but there is no need to dramatize them either. As for the conflict of generations, each subsequent one is generally more educated than the previous one and is more fully aware of the continuity of generations. Population aging accompanies countries with an increasing level of economic development, which means that they have more productive and cost-effective economies.
Manufacturers consumer goods and services with the aging of the population must be considered unconditionally: each age has its own characteristics in the structure of consumption.
The trends noted here in the dynamics and structure of the population are characteristic to a greater or lesser extent of all economically developed and developing countries. This does not exclude differences in the course of these processes. Therefore, in order to develop an economically and socially effective policy, an objective and comprehensive study of all aspects of the dynamics and structure of the population of each country is necessary. Moreover, this problem should be studied by regions and social groups.
For example, aging, which is inherent in all economically developed countries, is not the same in them in terms of time, level, rate of occurrence, etc. France is now the most "old" country (14% of its population are over 65 years old; in 1900 they were 8%). Japan, recently classified as a "young" country (from 5% older in 1960), is now experiencing a rapidly aging population as a result of a sharp decline in its birth rate.
A study of the changes taking place in the dynamics and structure of the population in the countries of the world over a long period made it possible to identify a natural trend called the demographic transition, or demographic transformation.
Demographic transition- this is the period during which the birth rate decreases to a simple reproduction of the population. As the analysis shows, all developed countries have gone through three stages in changing the demographic situation in the country in order to achieve this result. The first stage - for many centuries, modern developed countries had a constant or very slowly growing population, which was the result of a high birth rate and no less high mortality (diseases, epidemics, wars).
The second stage is an increase in the level of economic development, which led to improved health care, nutrition, a decrease in mortality and an increase in life expectancy from 40 to 60 years. But the birth rate at this stage remained high. As a result, a significant excess of births over deaths led to a sharp increase in the population compared to past centuries. However, the third stage has come - a decrease in the birth rate as a result of an increase in the level of socio-economic development. This has led to a convergence of birth and death rates.
Despite the objective nature of the demographic transformation, economists still hold two opposing views in assessing population growth on socio-economic development. Supporters of the need to reduce the rate of population growth prove the existence of negative consequences of population growth on economic, social, and environmental development in the world.
In defense of their position, they cite poverty, malnutrition, ill health in countries with a rapidly increasing population. Proponents of this position present the relationship between poverty and population growth as a "vicious circle".
According to supporters of this position, population growth is an obstacle to development. This point of view is still held by the authors of "limits to growth" (Club of Rome, 1972). In Beyond Growth, published in 1992, the authors argue that despite the decline in population growth, its increase is still exponential, leading to an inevitable global catastrophe on Earth.
In this position, criticism is caused by the assertion that exponential growth is inherent in population and capital. Such a statement contradicts the theory of demographic transition, or demographic transformation, which is a generalization of the practice of world economic development. It is the growth of capital and the resulting growth in income, consumption, education and culture of the population, the employment of women in social production that leads to a simple reproduction of the population.
The example of Japan shows that in order to achieve a demographic transition in the 20th century. it took not centuries, but 30-40 years. This result is a consequence of high effective rates of economic growth and huge qualitative changes in the socio-economic development of Japanese society.
Supporters of the second position believe that fears about population growth are far-fetched. The American economist Simon, during a period of heated debate (80s of the 20th century), stated that free markets and human ingenuity (he considered the genius of people as the main resource) can solve all the problems of population growth. Population growth, according to supporters of this position, is desirable because it stimulates consumer demand by increasing the scale of production and reducing production costs.
The second position finds more confirmation in practice than the first. Japan, China, the Republic of Korea used the human factor to accelerate their economic development, using the third, mixed (extensive-intensive) option, which allows them to employ the able-bodied population using the latest achievements of scientific and technical progress.
The population of the Earth is growing at the expense of poor, economically undeveloped countries. As world experience shows, the main way to reduce the rate of population growth in these countries is the development national economy, allowing to increase incomes, consumption, education and culture of the population of underdeveloped countries. As for environmental catastrophes, to prevent them, the richest countries need to limit their claims to increase profits and increase the cost of preventing the negative consequences of the use of scientific and technical progress.
Countries former USSR differed sharply in terms of natural population growth and labor resources. The republics of Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan had during the entire Soviet period the highest birth rate and, with an average mortality rate in the USSR, high population growth rates. However, these national republics generally did not experience an excess of labor resources due to the redistribution of surplus product, high rates of capital construction and the creation of new jobs in these regions. Center
Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States were characterized by a decrease in the birth rate, natural population growth and labor resources with all the ensuing consequences of these trends.
The industrial regions of the former USSR experienced a chronic labor shortage. The main reason for this deficit was not only economic but also political. The pace of economic growth in the country was ensured mainly through the creation of new jobs, i.e. on an extensive basis. This process was aggravated by administrative methods of restraining internal migration processes of labor resources. Almost all major cities of the country were closed to the free entry of workers, even in the presence of an acute shortage of labor.
In Russia itself, despite the general trend towards a decrease in natural population growth, in a number of national regions there was a noticeable specific gravity families with four or more children.
In the XX century. Russia twice experienced the impact of demographic catastrophes. As a result of the First World War, the pre-war population was restored only by 1926, and after the Second World War - by 1955 (Table 9). For the entire XX century. The world population has increased 4 times, including the developed countries of the West 2.4 times, developing - 5 times. The population of Russia (within its current borders) increased 2.1 times over the same period. In other words, the average annual population growth rate in Russia was lower than in the developed countries of the West.
At present, the analysis of the dynamics of the main demographic data indicates not just a reduction, but a sharp drop in the birth rate and a new surge in mortality.
Over the 100-year period in Russia, an absolute reduction in the population was observed twice: during the Great Patriotic War and during the years of market reforms. According to experts' estimates, Russia's population is doomed to decline.
This conclusion was reached by the authors of all those given in Table. 10 payment options. According to experts, the downward trend will be determined mainly by inertial factors that operated in 1991-2000. - Unemployment, declining incomes, deteriorating healthcare, declining social protection of the population, etc.
At the same time, it should be borne in mind that, as already noted, forecasts for changes in the population often turn out to be unjustified. The downward trend in the population of Russia may not be realized if the country's economy "works" in full measure, the population's income grows, social services improve, and the state will be able to implement an effective demographic policy aimed at the natural and migration growth of the country's population.
Subject, method and functions of economic theory
The process of production, reproduction and its phases
The system of property relations in the modern economy
System economic interests, motives and incentives
System economic laws
Market and market economy: content, functions, types
competition as main element in market model management
Demand, supply and price in the system of market relations
Essence and functions of money
Enterprise (firm) as the main business entity in the market
Capital as a material basis for the development of an enterprise
Production costs: essence, classification and structure
Cash income of enterprises and forms of their manifestation in a market economy
Features of agrarian relations. Land rent. Land price
Bank as a business entity in a market economy. Securities and Stock Exchange
Social reproduction at the national level
