Traditionally, when talking about real estate, it is customary to divide it into two large sectors: commercial real estate and residential real estate. Residential real estate includes apartments (primary and secondary housing), private houses and cottages (townhouses). To commercial real estate include office space, warehouse space, retail space and hotel space. Often, the behavior of prices in these markets does not coincide, due to the correlation of factors affecting prices in these market segments.
If the residential real estate market is mainly formed only by supply and demand, then in the commercial real estate market, many more factors are added to this: the impact of inflation on the consumption of services, changes in government policy, and the dependence of owner companies on other companies.
To better understand the commercial real estate market, you need to analyze economic situation. During the first 8 months of 2008 throughout Russia, there has been a steady increase in the main indicators that affect the purchasing power of the population. 
According to the already established trend, office space makes up a large part of the commercial real estate market, and every year there is an increase in demand. In addition, according to market participants, the demand for the quality of offices is constantly growing. Offices in large business centers are in increasing demand. But unlike Western business centers, the price of renting offices in Russia is not calculated according to special methods, but is set by the owners of business centers, who are guided mainly by average prices for similar areas. According to experts, in the first 8 months the volume of free office space amounted to 7.2%, which in terms of square meters is about 0.6 million. When considering the history of office space, it is clearly seen that just two years ago, there was no more than 1 square meter of office space per 1 employed resident of Moscow, and today this figure has reached almost 2 square meters. In addition, by the end of this year it is planned to commission another one million square meters of office space, and in 2009 - two more. It would seem that with such a large amount of space, office rental prices should decrease, however, on average, the price of office rental for the first 8 months of 2008 increased by an average of 15% ten%). The main reason for this increase in the price of class A offices was the statement by the Moscow authorities about a ban on the construction of offices in the center. 
Retail premises represent an increasingly attractive area for investment every year due to the increase in purchasing power mentioned above. In addition, an increasing part of the population prefers large shopping centers to small shops. The main reason for this is the ability to buy a large number of different goods at once in one place, high quality service and lower prices. In addition, now more and more large shopping centers provide entertainment services. The first centers of this type began to appear in Moscow in 1998 on the Moscow Ring Road. However, today the situation is somewhat different. The construction of such centers is limited by high land prices in Moscow, which could not but arouse desire in the Moscow suburbs, thanks to low land prices, one can earn income approximately equal to Moscow, and sometimes even exceeding it. At the moment, there are three main types of buildings: the intersection of the Moscow Ring Road with transit routes passing through the capital; roads passing through large cities of the Moscow region; remote from the Moscow Ring Road. If we analyze each type separately, then we can say that the first type is aimed mainly at buyers from Moscow, the second type is aimed at buyers from large cities near Moscow, and its benefit lies in the low cost of land, low competition, ease of setting up logistics in areas for companies from Moscow. Regarding the third type, according to experts, the most popular (and therefore profitable) will be regional shopping centers, the area of which ranges from 50 to 70 thousand square meters. The modern commercial real estate market dictates its own standards for shopping centers. Shopping centers should be spacious enough, located in a convenient area, have parking and ample parking. In addition, each center should be based on a few elements from a number of basic store types: furniture, grocery, electronics, children's, or home. In addition, the shopping center should have space for office rent, an entertainment area, and a food area. 
The commercial real estate market has common trends for all its segments. Thus, the warehouse market largely repeats the features of the office market. The main centers for the formation of this market are Moscow, the Moscow region and St. Petersburg. Unlike most European countries, where the development of such a market takes place throughout the country, in Russia the regions are reluctant to develop. A very important event that affected the rental rate of warehouse premises took place last year when the construction of a large number warehouse premises. Having deceived the expectations of many, only half of the declared objects were commissioned. 
Of course, it is impossible to predict with 100% certainty what will happen in the commercial real estate market. However, among experts there is an opinion that the market is waiting for an early stagnation. Among the reasons for such thoughts were the statements of a number of large retailers (retailers) about the sale of their commercial real estate. One of the reasons given by retailers was the reduction in consumption of products by the population due to the high level of inflation. In addition, it should be noted that Russian retail companies are highly overvalued compared to Western ones. In general, there will be an increase in prices and rental rates in each segment of the commercial real estate market, the influx of Western capital will also support upward price trends. Many companies will attempt to move to regional markets in order to take a high position on it. The conducted one shows that it is not worth expecting sharp changes in the market yet. Research provided
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Analysts of the international consulting company Knight Frank noted that the provision of Russians with outlet format stores is at the lowest level in Europe - 1.1 sq. m /1000 people against 9.2 sq. m/1000 people on average in European countries and 90 sq. m/1000 people in the USA. There are more than 200 outlets in America, about 150 in Europe, and only 6 in Russia.
12.02.2019According to the international consulting company Knight Frank, the Russian market is currently undergoing the third wave of coffee shop openings. Unlike the first two, since 2013, small author's chains of coffee houses and coffee bars have been actively developing against the backdrop of changes in consumer behavior. However, the coffee shop market is far from saturated. Now there are about 5,000 coffee shops in million-plus cities, while the market size is 130 billion rubles, and the potential, taking into account consumer opportunities, is 1 trillion rubles, which is 7.6 more than the current market saturation. The potential of the Moscow market is more than 120 billion rubles, which is 4 times higher than the current value.
01.02.2019Cushman & Wakefield experts told what awaits the commercial real estate market in 2019. The main challenges for the Russian economy in the coming years will be growing inequality and disparity. The gap between leaders and outsiders will grow in all market segments.
31.01.2019In the retail real estate market in 2019, an increase in construction activity is expected. According to a report by Marketbeat Cushman & Wakefield, new construction in 2019 will amount to 700 thousand square meters. m, which is 45% more than in 2018.
28.01.2019Analysts of the international consulting company Knight Frank summed up the results of 2018 in the Moscow retail real estate market and found out that in 2018 135.1 thousand sq. m. m, which is the lowest figure in the past 10 years. At the same time, the vacancy decreased by 1.5% p.p. up to 7%.
The anti-records in the retail segment did not end there - in 2018, the lowest indicator for the entry of new brands was recorded (22 operators against 37 in 2017) against the backdrop of the highest indicator for the closure of retailers (12 operators left the market). In 2018, 1.5 times more retailers left than in 2017, when 8 brands announced their departure, and this is the most high rate closed since 2012.
25.01.2019At the end of 2018, for the first time since 2014, there was a significant increase in the segment of high-quality retail space. The volume of commissioning amounted to 128,200 sq.m., which is 3% of the total market volume.
24.01.20192018 was characterized by a relative "warming" in the development of retail and Catering. This trend was typical not only for million-plus cities, but also for other regions of Russia. This is evidenced by the results of an industry study conducted by RealJet.
26.11.2018For the second year in a row, international brands of the Economy price category have not entered the Russian market. More than half of the new brands belong to the middle price segment. From the second quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2018, 33 new brands entered the Russian market, and 21 brands left the market. Such data are provided in a study of the company"Shop Store".
20.11.2018Analysts from the international company Knight Frank found out that almost all new shopping centers that entered the market since the beginning of this year and are scheduled to open before the end of 2018 in Moscow belong to the format of small shopping centers (GLA up to 20,000 sq. m.). By the end of 2020, it is planned to bring about 57 new shopping centers to the capital market, of which about 85% of the objects (49 projects) correspond to the regional scale. This largely indicates the transition of the market from the mega-mall format to district-scale shopping centers.
13.11.2018Until the end of 2019, the largest number of outlet openings in the history of Russia is expected: the outlet market will grow by 95,700 sq. m.
16.10.2018According to JLL, by the end of the 3rd quarter, the share of vacant premises on the main shopping streets of St. Petersburg increased from 7.5% to 7.8%. The most significant increase in vacancy is at the level of 1-2 p.p. - occurred on lines 6-7 of V.O., Sadovaya street and Moskovsky prospect. At the same time, the indicator on the main part of Nevsky Prospect for July-September changed slightly and amounted to about 4%.
05.10.2018According to JLL, in the first three quarters of 2018, only 98,000 sq. m of retail space, which is 13% less than in the same period previous year. It should be noted that not a single shopping center was opened in Moscow in the 3rd quarter.
04.10.2018According to JLL, the volume of stores opened or announced for the imminent opening in St. Petersburg shopping centers in the 3rd quarter of 2018 exceeded 83 thousand square meters. m. This is the highest quarterly value in the quality retail real estate market over the past 10 years.
27.09.2018Since the beginning of this year, 17 new international brands have entered the Russian market, which is almost 1.5 times less compared to the same period in 2017 (28 brands), according to a study by the international consulting company Knight Frank.
25.09.2018In three quarters, less than half of the GLA of all areas announced in 2018 were commissioned. A record 59% commissioning was announced for the "New Year's" quarter.
18.09.2018Experts from the international consulting company Knight Frank conducted a study of catering outlets in the 7 largest and most popular Moscow parks according to the Public Opinion Foundation.
11.09.2018| header | the date | segment |
|---|---|---|
| 27.03.2019 | Offices | |
| 10.10.2018 | Offices | |
| 08.07.2018 | Offices | |
| 12.04.2018 | Offices | |
| 15.01.2018 | Offices | |
| 07.11.2017 | Offices | |
| 01.08.2017 | Offices | |
| 25.04.2017 | Offices | |
| 15.02.2017 | Offices | |
| 24.11.2016 | Offices | |
| 16.09.2016 | Offices | |
| 18.05.2016 | Offices | |
| 19.02.2016 | Offices | |
| 02.11.2015 | Offices | |
| 03.08.2015 | Offices | |
| 27.04.2015 | Offices | |
| 30.01.2015 | Retail property | |
| 30.01.2015 | Offices |
The need to analyze the commercial real estate market at the stage of adoption investment decision is beyond doubt. A thorough study of such factors as the location of the object, the level of real estate prices in selected areas, the features of taxation and the intricacies of legislation will determine the feasibility and economic benefits financial investments in real estate. In addition, a well-conducted analysis of the commercial real estate market helps to identify the potential of the selected object, revealing which, you can benefit from your investments in the optimal time frame.
With many years of experience in the field, continuous improvement of skills and deepening of the acquired knowledge, Praedium's analytics and research department will help you make the right investment choice. An important advantage of Praedium analytics is high level professionalism of our consultants and experts. We conduct regular analysis of the commercial real estate market, monitor all events in the investment market and study the main macroeconomic trends. The main confirmation of the successful development strategy of Praedium is the numerous positive reviews clients about implemented projects in analytics and interest in reviews of the commercial real estate market.
The Analytics and Research Department regularly releases the following materials:
A quarterly review of the commercial real estate market (analysis), which collects and visually presents information on demand, supply, price and rental rates, as well as data on current trends and recent events in various segments of commercial real estate, collected over the period.
A monthly digest of the main events, which presents the most relevant and notable reviews of the commercial real estate market. It allows our readers to always stay up to date with the most important market events.
Praedium's analytics department also conducts a number of specialized studies at the request of clients. These include:
Analysis of the competitive environment of the real estate object. In the course of this study, the alleged competitors of the client's object are studied in detail, a comparative analysis of the advantages and weaknesses. The information obtained allows us to develop proposals for the most advantageous commercial use object and determine options for development concepts that maximize the full potential of the object.
Calculation of the market rental rate or sale price. This study allows, after conducting a review of commercial real estate, to determine the rate at which the object can be rented out under typical market conditions and the most likely market value property in case of sale. This information will allow a high degree accurately predict the profitability of investments for the client.
Against the backdrop of the absence of serious macroeconomic shocks and the revision of forecast indicators towards improvement, stabilization is observed in the commercial real estate market. Positive trends are the growth in demand for premises recorded since the end of 2015, the decrease in vacancy rates, including in the office market, and the relative stabilization of prices in dollars. Economic growth forecasts remain very conservative, but allow the real estate segment to prepare for recovery, RRG reports.
Main conclusions
The volume of supply in the sales and rental markets in 2016 continued to decline. The trend is due to a reduction in the volume of new construction in all sectors of commercial real estate, the conclusion of transactions, as well as the fact that the owners remove their objects from the exhibition, not wanting to sell at lower prices. The level of decrease in the volume of supply in the sales market turned out to be less than in the rental market.
The volume of supply for sale by total area increased in the retail and industrial-warehouse segment, while the supply of offices decreased by 18%. In the rental market, a decrease in supply in terms of total area was recorded in all segments, but the maximum correction was also observed in the office market - minus 25%. At the same time, offices continue to dominate in the supply structure. Thus, the share of office premises in the structure of the offer for sale is 61%.
The weighted average sale price of commercial real estate for the year in rubles decreased by 10%, in dollar terms - by 20%. A negative correction was observed in all segments, however, free-use premises (minus 10% in rubles) and retail real estate (minus 8%) showed the largest decline. The decline in prices in the context of reduced supply may indicate an oversupply of space on the market against the backdrop of a difficult macroeconomic situation.
The average rate on the rental market from December 2015 to December 2016 decreased by 2% in ruble terms and by 12% in dollar terms. At the same time, a negative trend in rates was observed in the office and production and warehouse sectors, while retail real estate, on the contrary, showed an increase of 8% in national currency. The decrease in rates was observed in the first half of the year, after which a slight increase was recorded. In general, we can talk about relative stabilization in the rental market.
* Research methodology
As objects for the study of the market for the sale of commercial real estate, commercial real estate objects offered for sale in open sources were selected - office, production and warehouse premises (PSP) and free commercial premises (PSN), as well as retail premises with a total area of more than 100 sq.m. At the same time, in order to analyze price dynamics, the weighted average sale price is used, which is calculated as the ratio of the total cost of objects to the total area of these objects. As objects for the study of the commercial real estate rental market, commercial real estate objects offered in open sources were selected - retail, office, production and warehouse premises (PSP) with a total area of more than 50 sq.m. In order to analyze price dynamics, the average rental rate is used, which is calculated as the arithmetic average of the prices of all objects, as well as the total annual rent(GAP), which is calculated as the sum of the rent for the year.
Sale
Market as a whole
Supply volume
The volume of market supply in 2016 fluctuated significantly. Without taking into account monthly fluctuations, we can say that until the middle of the year there was a decrease in the volume of supply, after which the volume of supply slightly increased.
From December 2015 to December 2016, the volume of supply decreased by 13% in terms of quantity, and in terms of total area it increased by 10%, amounting to 1,609 objects with a total area of 2,646 thousand square meters. m.
Total area, thousand square meters m
Number of objects, pcs.
Price indicators
It can be noted that prices have been decreasing throughout the year. The decline in ruble prices over the year was 10%, and in dollar prices - 20%. The weighted average price in December 2016 decreased to 187,275 rubles/sq.m., or $3,016/sq.m. m. The decline in prices in the context of reduced supply may indicate an oversupply of space on the market against the backdrop of a difficult macroeconomic situation.
The total volume of supply in terms of value in December decreased by 22% and amounted to 495 billion rubles.
Supply volume
In 2016, the volume of supply in terms of total area increased by 23% for retail and 56% for industrial and warehouse premises and decreased by 18% for office and 51% for free-use premises.
The volume of offers in December 2016 amounted to 305 retail facilities with a total area of 245 thousand square meters. m., 997 office buildings with a total area of 1617 thousand sq. m. m., 107 production and storage facilities with a total area of 515 thousand square meters. m. and 200 free-use premises with a total area of 269 thousand square meters. m.
In the market structure in terms of total area, the leading position in December 2016, as before, was occupied by office premises, whose market share amounted to 61%, the second place with a share of 19% belongs to production and warehouse premises. The share of free-use premises in the total supply amounted to 11%, and the share of retail premises - 9%. The share of office premises decreased by 3% over the year, the share of retail premises increased by 2%, the share of free-use premises decreased by 7%, and the share of industrial and warehouse premises increased by 8%.
Total area, thousand square meters m
Judging by the decrease in the average area of office and free-use facilities by 29% and 42%, large-sized premises are leaving the market, while the situation was opposite for retail facilities and industrial and warehouse facilities, the average areas of which increased by 5% and 45%, respectively. .
Price indicators
The decrease in prices was observed in all segments and amounted to: 8% for retail facilities, 3% - for offices, 4% - for production and storage facilities, and 10% - for free-use premises.
The volume of supply in value terms for retail facilities increased by 13%, for industrial and warehouse premises - by 50%, for office premises decreased by 20%, and for free-use premises - by 56%.
Total cost, million rubles
Retail property
Supply volume
In December 2016, the total area of supply of retail real estate in the center compared to December 2015 increased by 30%, and outside the center - by 23%.
In total, in December 2016, 30 objects were put up for sale within the Garden Ring and 275 objects outside it with a total area of 17 and 228 thousand square meters. m respectively.
The total supply of retail premises in December amounted to 305 objects with a total area of 245 thousand square meters. m with an average building area of 800 sq. m.
Dynamics of indicators for retail premises
Price indicators
The price of retail facilities in the center from December 2015 to December 2016 decreased by 16% to RUB 720,703/sq. m, and outside the Garden Ring - by 7% to 214,948 rubles / sq. m. m. A more significant decrease in prices for objects in the center may be the result of a more significant price correction, since in 2015 a more significant increase in prices was observed for objects in the center than for objects outside it.
The price for all retail premises in 2016 decreased by 8% to RUB 249,112/sq. m.
The cost volume of supply of retail premises for 12 months in the center increased by 9%, and in the periphery - by 14%.
street retail
The volume of supply of street-retail format objects for 2016 in terms of total area decreased by 3% and amounted to 23 thousand square meters. m. In the center, the total area decreased by 27% to 3 thousand square meters. m, and outside increased by 3% and amounted to 19 thousand square meters. m.
The weighted average price in the city as a whole decreased by 19% and amounted to 443,142 rubles per sq. m. m/year. In the center, prices increased by 1% to 1,161,727 rubles/sq.m./year, while outside it, on the contrary, they decreased by 21% to 313,467 rubles/sq.m. m/year. As can be seen from the price dynamics, the demand for objects in the center is higher than in the peripheral ones, which confirms the traditionally higher investment attractiveness of these premises.
Office real estate
Supply volume
The supply of offices in the center decreased by 21% in total area and increased by 22% in number, while outside the center decreased by 18% in total area and increased by 13% in number.
In total, in December 2016, 201 objects with a total area of 185,000 sq. m. were put up on the market. m. within the Garden Ring and 796 objects outside it with a total area of 1432 thousand square meters. m. The total supply of office space amounted to 997 objects with a total area of 1617 thousand square meters. m with an average area of 1,622 sq. m.
Dynamics of indicators for office premises
Price indicators
For 12 months from December 2015 to December 2016, the weighted average price for office properties in the center increased by 13% to 429,637 rubles/sq.m, and outside the Garden Ring it decreased by 6% to 186,270 rubles/sq.m. m.
The price for all office premises in 2016 decreased by 3% and amounted to 214,089 rubles/sq. In 2015, there was a more significant decrease in prices for office properties in the center than for objects outside it, so a significant increase in prices for objects in the center in 2016 may be the result of a correction and equalization of demand.
The decrease in the volume of supply in value terms amounted to 10% to 79 billion rubles. within the Garden Ring and 23% to 266 billion rubles. outside it, and in general, the cost of office facilities in 2016 decreased by 20% to 346 billion rubles.
Rent
Market as a whole
Supply volume
There were several stages in the development of the rental market during 2016.
From January to April, the volume of supply changed insignificantly;
From April to August, its level decreased;
From August to December - grew.
The total decrease in the volume of supply in terms of space for 12 months amounted to 20%.
In December 2016, 2,748 objects with a total area of 1,572 thousand sq.m. were put up on the market.
Price indicators
In the dynamics of rental rates during 2016, 2 periods can be distinguished:
January to June average level rates fell;
From June to December - just slightly increased.
The average rate on the rental market from December 2015 to December 2016 decreased by 2% in ruble terms and by 12% in dollar terms. In December 2016, the average rental rate was RUB 18,099/sq. m/year, or $291/sq. m/year.
The decrease in the rate both in ruble and dollar terms, as well as prices on the sale market, indicates that negative trends in the market continue.
Segment Benchmarking
Supply volume
In 2016, the rate of decrease in the volume of supply in terms of total area in various segments in the rental market amounted to 14% for retail real estate, 25% for office real estate, and 13% for industrial and warehouse real estate.
The volume of supply for the total area in December 2016 amounted to: 212 thousand sq. m. m for retail facilities, 791 thousand sq.m. - for office and 569 thousand sq. m. m - for production and storage facilities.
During 2016, the average area for retail premises decreased by 18%, for production and warehouse premises - by 10%, while for office premises - increased by 13%.
The average rate for retail premises from December 2015 to December 2016 increased by 8% to RUB 32,255/sq. m / year, for office - decreased by 6% to 16,705 rubles / sq. m. m / year, for production and storage facilities - by 4% and amounted to 6,425 rubles / sq. m. m/year. The greatest demand, judging by the growth of the rental rate, was used by retail premises.
The decrease in the annual total rent from December 2015 to December 2016 amounted to 21% for retail, 31% for office space and 16% for industrial and warehouse space.
Retail property
Supply volume
The volume of supply in terms of retail space in December 2016 in the center decreased by 22%, while outside the Garden Ring - by 13%. The decrease in quantity was 5% and 18%, respectively.
In total, in December 2016, 62 objects with a total area of 15 thousand square meters were exhibited. m within the Garden Ring and 530 objects with an area of 197 thousand square meters. m outside. The total supply of retail premises amounted to 592 objects with a total area of 212 thousand square meters. m with an average area of 358 sq. m.
Price indicators
The average rate for objects in the center for 2016 increased by 19% to 63,771 rubles per sq. m. m / year, and for objects outside the Garden Ring - by 4% to 28,569 rubles / sq. m. m/year. Judging by a more significant increase in rates, the demand for objects in the center is higher.
The annual rent for objects within the Garden Ring decreased by 17%, and outside the Garden Ring - by 22%.
street- retail
The volume of supply of street-retail objects for 12 months in terms of total area decreased by 6 %, incl. in the center - on 37 %, and outside it grew by 1 % and amounted to 31 object with a total area 8 thousand sq.m. in the center and 206 objects with an area 53 thousand sq.m. outside of it.
The average rental rate for 12 months increased by 1 % before 37 378 rub./sq. m/year, while in the center it increased by 22 % before 74 192 rub./sq. m/year, and outside it decreased by 4 % before 31 838 rub./sq. m/year.
Office real estate
Supply volume
The volume of offers of offices by total area from December 2015 to December 2016 decreased by 38% in the center and by 23% outside of it. The decrease in the number of premises amounted to 25% and 19%, respectively.
In total, in December 2016, 240 objects were exhibited within the Garden Ring and 1393 objects outside it with a total area of 103 and 689 thousand square meters. m respectively. The total supply of office space in December amounted to 1,633 objects with a total area of 791 thousand square meters. m with an average area of 485 sq. m.
Price indicators
The average rate for office properties for 2016 as a whole decreased by 6% to RUB 16,705/sq.m./year. Within the Garden Ring, the average rate decreased by 2% and amounted to 25,569 rubles per sq. m. m/year, and in the periphery - by 6% to 15,178 rubles/sq. m/year.
Given the significant reduction in supply, the total annual rent for office facilities in the center decreased by 45%, and outside the Garden Ring - by 27%.
RRG conducted a study of the commercial real estate market in the capital region in the third quarter of 2017. Information for the study was obtained from more than 30 specialized and thematic sources on the Moscow commercial real estate market. Among the sources - electronic bases real estate, print and electronic media, real estate agencies and consulting companies.
As objects for researching the market for the sale of commercial real estate, office, production and warehouse premises (PSP) and free commercial premises (PSN) worth at least 36 million rubles, as well as retail premises worth at least 26 million rubles or premises with a total area of at least 100 sq. m.
As objects for the study of the commercial real estate rental market, objects offered in open sources were selected - retail, office, production and warehouse premises (PSP) with a total area of at least 50 sq. m. m.
The volume of offers of real estate objects in both segments - sale and lease - decreased.
Sale
Market as a whole
Supply volume
In 3 sq. 2017, the volume of supply decreased by 1% in terms of quantity and by 4% in terms of total area. For the year, compared to the 3rd quarter. 2016, supply decreased by 5% in quantity and decreased by 28% in total area.
A total of 2,164 properties with a total area of 2,960,000 sq.m. were put up for sale in the 3rd quarter.
Price indicators
The weighted average price in 3 sq. m. 2017 decreased by 1% and amounted to 176,936 rubles/sq.m. Taking into account the fact that the dollar exchange rate increased by 3% over the quarter, and decreased by 9% over the year, the price in dollar terms increased by 2% over the quarter, and decreased by 19% over the year and amounted to $2,998/sq.m. The total value of commercial real estate decreased by 5% over the quarter, and by 35% over the year, and amounted to 523 billion rubles.
The decrease in prices both in rubles and in dollars over the year indicates a decrease in demand. At the same time, the decline in the supply of vacant space, their withdrawal from the market gives hope that a new equilibrium point in the market will soon be found.
| All segments | Quantity | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq.m | Average area, thousand sq.m | |
| meaning | 2 164 | 523 699 | 2 960 | 1,37 | 176 936 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 1% | − 5% | − 4% | − 3% | − 1% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | − 5% | − 35% | − 28% | − 24% | − 10% |
Supply volume
The volume of supply in terms of total area in the 3rd quarter compared to the 2nd quarter for retail real estate decreased by 14%, for office real estate - by 5%, for production and warehouse premises - by 5%, and for free-use premises - increased by 14%.
The volume of supply in terms of total area per year compared to 3 sq. 2016, for retail real estate decreased by 29%, for office - by 35%, for industrial and warehouse - increased by 17%, and for free-use premises decreased by 35%.
There have been changes in the structure of segments by area. The share of office objects was 59%. Next come premises for free use (21%), production and storage (13%) and retail premises (7%).
Price indicators
For the 3rd quarter of 2017, the price for retail real estate increased by 2% to 245,510 rubles/sq.m., for office real estate decreased by 4% and amounted to 202,521 rubles/sq.m. 63,439 rubles/sq.m., and for free-use premises - by 5% to 210,068 rubles/sq.m.
Compared to the 3rd quarter of 2016, the weighted average price decreased by 9% for retail real estate, by 4% for office real estate, by 17% for industrial and warehouse real estate and increased by 1% for free-use premises.
The only segment where prices decreased in Q3 2017 was office real estate, however, the price increase in other segments was insignificant, and over the year prices decreased in all segments except for industrial and warehouse premises.
| Trading | Quantity | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq.m | Average area, thousand sq.m | Weighted average price, rub./sq.m. |
| meaning | 348 | 45 738 | 186 | 0,54 | 245 510 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 15% | − 12% | − 14% | + 1% | + 2% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | − 7% | − 35% | − 29% | − 23% | − 9% |
| Office | Quantity | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq.m | Average area, thousand sq.m | Weighted average price, rub./sq.m. |
| meaning | 1 341 | 347 182 | 1 714 | 1,28 | 202 521 |
| to Q2 2017 | + 4% | − 9% | − 5% | − 9% | − 4% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | − 3% | − 38% | − 35% | − 33% | − 4% |
| PSP | Quantity | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq.m | Average area, thousand sq.m | Weighted average price, rub./sq.m. |
| Meaning | 160 | 39 688 | 626 | 3,91 | 63 439 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 18% | − 2% | − 5% | + 16% | + 4% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | − 15% | − 3% | + 17% | + 38% | − 17% |
| PSN | Quantity | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq.m | Average area, thousand sq.m | Weighted average price, rub./sq.m. |
| meaning | 315 | 91 091 | 434 | 1,38 | 210 068 |
| to Q2 2017 | + 11% | + 20% | + 14% | + 2% | + 5% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | − 4% | − 35% | − 35% | − 32% | + 1% |
Retail property
Supply volume
In the 3rd quarter, 348 retail objects with a total area of 186 thousand square meters were exhibited, of which 32 objects were inside the Garden Ring and 316 objects outside it.
Over the quarter, the volume of supply of retail facilities in the center decreased by 9% in terms of number, and remained unchanged in terms of total area. The volume of supply of retail facilities outside the center decreased by 16% in terms of quantity and by 15% in terms of total area.
Price indicators
The weighted average price for retail objects in the center for the 3rd quarter of 2017 decreased by 16% and amounted to 824,912 rubles/sq.m. (2,586 sq.m., 2,200,000 rubles/sq.m.), as well as the entry into the market of cheap properties on Raushskaya nab. (398 sq.m, 282,518 rubles/sq.m), Tolmachevsky per. (680 sq.m., 262,500 rubles/sq.m.), Kazarmenny per. (720 sq.m, 305,556 rubles/sq.m).
The weighted average price for retail premises outside the center increased by 4% to RUB 219,283/sq.m. The price increase was associated with the entry into the market in the 3rd quarter of an expensive retail facility on Ryazansky Prospekt (9,747 sq.m., 359,064 rubles per sq.m.) .
Despite the fact that prices for premises in the center decreased over the quarter, and outside, on the contrary, increased, the situation is reversed over the year, so in the medium term we can say that the demand for premises in the center is higher, but until recently such premises were somewhat overrated.
| Trading | Quantity | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq.m | Average area, thousand sq.m | Weighted average price, rub./sq.m. |
| meaning | 348 | 45 738 | 186 | 0,54 | 245 510 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 15% | − 12% | − 14% | + 1% | + 2% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | − 7% | − 35% | − 29% | − 23% | − 9% |
| Trading inside the UK | Quantity | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq.m | Average area, thousand sq.m | Weighted average price, rub./sq.m. |
| meaning | 32 | 6 655 | 8 | 0,25 | 824 912 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 9% | − 16% | 0% | + 9% | − 16% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | − 22% | − 41% | − 48% | − 33% | + 14% |
| Trading outside the UK | Quantity | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq.m | Average area, thousand sq.m | Weighted average price, rub./sq.m. |
| meaning | 316 | 39 083 | 178 | 0,56 | 219 283 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 16% | − 12% | − 15% | + 1% | + 4% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | − 5% | − 34% | − 27% | − 24% | − 9% |
street retail
Supply volume
In the 3rd quarter of 2017, 107 street-retail objects with a total area of 29,000 sq.m. were put up for sale, of which 10 objects are inside the Garden Ring and 97 objects outside it.
The volume of supply for retail facilities in the center decreased by 9% in terms of quantity, and by 10% in terms of total area. The volume of supply for retail facilities outside the center decreased by 14% in terms of quantity, and by 20% in terms of total area.
Price indicators
The weighted average price for street-retail properties in the center increased by 8% to RUB 960,183/sq.m., while the price for old properties decreased by 10%. The increase in prices was due to the entry into the market of an expensive object on M. Kozikhinsky per. (100 sq.m, 1,459,550 rubles/sq.m).
Outside the center, the weighted average price increased by 2% and amounted to 275,718 rubles/sq.m., which was due to a 5% increase in prices for objects that have been on display for a long time.
| street retail | Quantity | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand m2 | Average area, thousand m2 | |
| meaning | 107 | 9 934 | 29 | 0,27 | 343 396 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 14% | − 15% | − 19% | − 6% | + 5% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | + 1% | − 22% | − 2% | − 3% | − 21% |
| Street-retail inside the UK | Quantity | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand m2 | Average area, thousand m2 | Weighted average price, RUB/m2 |
| meaning | 10 | 2 747 | 3 | 0,29 | 960 183 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 9% | − 3% | − 10% | − 1% | + 8% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | − 41% | − 42% | − 38% | + 6% | − 7% |
| Street-retail outside the UK | Quantity | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand m2 | Average area, thousand m2 | Weighted average price, RUB/m2 |
| meaning | 97 | 7 188 | 26 | 0,27 | 275 718 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 14% | − 18% | − 20% | − 6% | + 2% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | + 9% | − 10% | + 5% | − 4% | − 15% |
Rent
Market as a whole
Supply volume
The volume of supply in the rental market in 3 sq. m. 2017 decreased by 7% in number and by 10% in total area. In general, for 4 quarters, the volume of supply increased by 19% in terms of quantity, and by 3% in terms of total area.
In total, 4,452 objects with a total area of 2,260 thousand sq.m. were exhibited in the 3rd quarter.
Price indicators
The average rate both for the quarter and for the last 4 quarters decreased by 3% and amounted to 17,969 rubles/sq.m/year. Taking into account the fact that the dollar exchange rate increased by 3% in the third quarter, the price in dollar terms did not change for the quarter and amounted to $304/sq.m/year. The annual rent for the quarter decreased by 12% and amounted to 32.4 billion rubles.
The decrease in the average rental rate in both dollars and rubles for the year indicates that negative factors still prevail in the real estate market.
| All segments | Quantity | Total gap, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq.m | Average area, thousand sq.m | |
| meaning | 4 452 | 32 416 | 2 260 | 0,51 | 17 969 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 7% | − 13% | − 10% | − 3% | − 3% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | + 19% | − 0% | + 3% | − 13% | − 3% |
Segment Benchmarking
Supply volume
The volume of supply in terms of total area for the 3rd quarter of 2017 in relation to the second decreased by 19% for retail, 11% for office and 4% for industrial and warehouse real estate.
The volume of supply for the total area of retail real estate decreased by 5% over the year, for office real estate - by 4%, and for industrial and warehouse real estate - increased by 17%.
Office space remains the leader in supply in terms of total area, with a share of 50%. Next come production and storage (38%) and retail premises (12%).
Price indicators
The average rental rate for the 3rd quarter of 2017 for retail real estate decreased by 2% and amounted to 30,808 rubles/sq.m./year, for office real estate - also decreased by 2% to 17,327 rubles/sq.m./year, and for the production and warehouse - increased by 2% and amounted to 6,656 rubles per sq.m./year.
Compared to the 3rd quarter of 2016, the change in the rental rate was -3% for retail, +1% for office, and for industrial and warehouse real estate, the rate did not change.
The change in rates both for the quarter and for the year continues to be insignificant, which is typical for the stage of market stagnation.
| Trading | Quantity | Total gap, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq.m | Average area, thousand sq.m | Average rate, rub./sq.m./year |
| meaning | 922 | 6 660 | 254 | 0,28 | 30 808 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 10% | − 17% | − 19% | − 10% | − 2% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | + 11% | − 3% | − 5% | − 14% | − 3% |
| Office | Quantity | Total gap, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq.m | Average area, thousand sq.m | Average rate, rub./sq.m./year |
| meaning | 2 633 | 19 984 | 1 090 | 0,41 | 17 327 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 7% | − 14% | − 11% | − 4% | − 2% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | + 18% | − 3% | − 4% | − 19% | + 1% |
| PSP | Quantity | Total gap, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq.m | Average area, thousand sq.m | Average rate, rub./sq.m./year |
| Meaning | 897 | 5 772 | 916 | 1,02 | 6 656 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 2% | − 3% | − 4% | − 3% | + 2% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | + 31% | + 15% | + 17% | − 11% | 0% |
Retail property
Supply volume
The volume of supply of retail real estate in the 3rd quarter decreased by 10% in terms of quantity, and decreased by 19% in terms of total area. The volume of supply for the year increased by 11% in terms of quantity, and decreased by 5% in terms of the total area.
In total, 922 objects with an area of 254 thousand square meters were exhibited in the 3rd quarter, of which 51 objects were in the center and 871 premises were outside.
The volume of supply for the total area in the 3rd quarter decreased by 18% in the center and by 19% outside it.
Price indicators
The average rental rate for retail facilities within the Garden Ring in 3 sq. m. 2017 decreased by 1% and amounted to 58,889 rubles/sq.m/year.
The average rental rate for retail properties outside the Garden Ring did not change and amounted to 29,164 rubles/sq.m./year.
The insignificance of changes in rates for retail facilities indicates stagnation in the market in the face of a decrease in supply.
| Trading inside the UK | Quantity | Total gap, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq.m | Average area, thousand sq.m | Average rate, rub./sq.m./year |
| meaning | 51 | 658 | 13 | 0,26 | 58 889 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 30% | − 24% | − 18% | + 17% | − 1% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | − 39% | − 29% | − 26% | + 22% | − 3% |
| Trading outside the UK | Quantity | Total gap, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq.m | Average area, thousand sq.m | Average rate, rub./sq.m./year |
| meaning | 871 | 6 001 | 241 | 0,28 | 29 164 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 9% | − 17% | − 19% | − 11% | 0% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | + 16% | + 1% | − 3% | − 17% | + 2% |
street retail
Supply volume
The volume of supply of street-retail objects in the 3rd quarter of 2017 decreased by 10% in terms of quantity and by 19% in terms of total area. Over the year, the volume of supply increased by 13% in terms of quantity, and by 4% in terms of total area. In total, 353 objects with an area of 76 thousand square meters were exhibited in the 3rd quarter, of which 17 objects were offered in the center and 336 objects outside it.
| Street-retail inside the UK | Quantity | Total gap, million rubles | Total area, thousand m2 | Average area, thousand m2 | Average rate, rub./sq.m./year |
| meaning | 17 | 255 | 5 | 0,29 | 67 263 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 32% | − 28% | − 6% | + 38% | − 13% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | − 51% | − 38% | − 29% | + 47% | − 3% |
| Street-retail outside the UK | Quantity | Total gap, million rubles | Total area, thousand m2 | Average area, thousand m2 | Average rate, rub./sq.m./year |
| meaning | 336 | 2 097 | 71 | 0,21 | 33 343 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 9% | − 19% | − 20% | − 12% | − 2% |
| to III quarter. 2016 | + 21% | + 9% | + 8% | − 11% | − 3% |
