Budget Analysis includes:
1) analysis of budget execution;
2) analysis financial condition territory.
Objectives of budget analysis:
Evaluation of the final results of the preparation and execution of the budget;
Rationale fiscal policy territorial administrations;
Justification of the parameters of indicators in the formation of budgets;
Identification of factors and causes that influenced the non-fulfillment of planned budget indicators;
Identification of reserves in the preparation and execution of the budget;
Ensuring the full, timely and stable implementation of the revenue mobilization plan and the plan for financing the activities provided for in the budget;
Determination of economic and social efficiency of budget expenditures.
Analysis of territorial budgets allows you to determine:
the level of financial self-sufficiency of the territory;
· level of stability of the territorial budget;
factors affecting the financial position of the territory and the degree of influence of these factors on the budget;
Financial and regulatory authorities carry out:
· analysis of the state of provision and repayment of budget credits, loans;
· analysis of the state of provision and fulfillment of obligations under state guarantees;
· Analysis of the state of provision of budget investments.
Methods and tools for budget analysis:
1.Comparison Method
The budget indicators of the reporting period are compared either with the planned ones or with the indicators for the previous period (basic). When comparing indicators for the previous period, it is necessary to achieve their comparability.
2.Group method
The indicators are grouped and summarized in tables. This allows you to carry out analytical calculations, detect trends in the development of individual phenomena and their relationships, factors that affect the change in indicators.
3.chain setting method, or elimination, consists in replacing a separate reporting indicator with a basic one, while all other indicators remain unchanged. This method allows you to determine the impact of individual factors on the total budget indicator.
4. Budget ratios- relative indicators of the financial condition of the territory, which express the ratio of some absolute budget indicators to others. The coefficients can be used to compare indicators of the financial condition of a particular territory with similar indicators of other territories, to identify the dynamics of development of indicators and trends in the financial condition of the territory.
Budget analysis can be carried out on the basis of the results of both the preparation and execution of the budget. Budget analysis should be conducted separately for income and expenditure.
For budget analysis can be used:
1) horizontal analysis- current budget indicators are compared with indicators for the previous period, as well as planned indicators with actual ones;
2) vertical analysis- the structure of the budget, the share of individual budget indicators in the final indicator and their impact on the overall results are determined;
3) trend analysis- is carried out in order to identify trends in the dynamics of budget indicators. Planned or reported indicators for a number of years are compared. Based on a retrospective analysis, it is possible to forecast budget indicators for the future;
4) factor analysis- identification of the influence of individual factors on budget indicators.
Methods for analyzing the stability of the territorial budget
The level of sustainability of the territorial budget may be determined by the amount of funds needed to ensure minimum, deterministic budgetary spending. Minimum budget spending- these are the funds provided in the budget for financing constitutionally guaranteed measures for the life support of the population, that is, these are budgetary funds allocated for the maintenance of institutions, enterprises and organizations that are on the budget and provide free or preferential terms services and goods to the population.
The stability of the budget can be characterized by four types of its state:
1) an absolutely stable state of the budget;
2) the normal state of the budget;
3) unstable state of the budget;
4) the crisis state of the budget.
I.
1) An absolutely stable state of the budget is possible provided that
Rmin< Дс + Дп, (16.1)
where Rmin - minimum budget expenditures;
Ds - own budget revenues;
Dp - redistributed budget revenues.
Own income- revenues received by the territorial budget: from regional or local taxes corresponding to the level of the territorial budget; deductions as a percentage of taxes from higher budgets transferred on a long-term basis (for a period of more than three years); from non-tax revenues.
Redistributable income- the amount of funds received in the revenues of territorial budgets, in the form of: financial assistance(gratuitous and irrevocable transfers); deductions as a percentage of taxes from higher budgets transferred on a short-term basis (for a period of one to three years).
2) Normal state
Pmin \u003d Ds + Dp (16.2)
3) Unstable state
Pmin \u003d Ds + Dp + Dd. (16.3)
where Dd - additionally attracted financial resources(free balance budget funds and etc.).
4) Crisis state
Rmin > Ds + Dp. (16.4)
II. Territorial budget sustainability analysis method
The following quantitative criteria are possible to determine the degree of budget sustainability, presented in Table. 16.1
Table 16.1
Coefficients for determining the sustainability of territorial budgets
|
Odds |
Level of budget sustainability |
||
|
absolutely steady state |
normal condition |
unstable state |
|
where D - total amount budget revenues;
P is the total amount of budget expenditures;
3 - budget debt.
Based on the economic and tax potential of the territories, the above ratios of own and redistributed income may be different for different regions, so these ratios should be determined based on their analysis for each subject of the Russian Federation.
III. Territorial budget sustainability analysis method
In budget analysis, budget ratios can be used as tools. They can be used to compare the characteristics of the budget for different periods of time, to compare the budget indicators of a particular territory with similar indicators of the budgets of other territories. These criteria can be developed on the basis of the most successfully drawn up and executed budgets, on the basis of groups of budgets formed on a territorial basis, etc.
Budget ratios:
1) ratio of redistributed and own budget revenues:
Kp / s \u003d Dp / Ds
2) autonomy coefficient:
Ka = Ds / D
3) coefficient of external financing:
Sq.f. = Dp / D
4) security ratio minimum expenses own income:
Ko.r = Ds / Rmin
5) budget coverage ratio:
Kb.p \u003d D / Rmin
6) tax coverage ratio:
Kn.p. = Dn / Rmin
where Dn - tax revenues of the budget
7) non-tax coverage ratio:
Knn.p \u003d Dnn.p / Rmin
where Dnn.p - non-tax budget revenues
8) transfer coverage ratio
Kt.p. = Dt.p./Rmin
where Dt.p - budget revenues received in the form of transfers (gratuitous, non-refundable receipts)
9) budget deficit ratio
Kd \u003d DB / R,
where db is the budget deficit
10) budget debt ratio
11) coefficient of budget performance of the region:
Kb.R \u003d Dt: H,
where Dt - the total amount of budget revenues created in the relevant territory and received by all links budget system; H is the average annual population of the region;
12) coefficient of budgetary provision of the population
Kb.o. = R / H.
Holding complex analysis The budget allows to obtain the necessary information for representative and executive authorities to make decisions in the formation and implementation of financial policy, identify reserves in mobilizing funds to the budget, improve the efficiency of their use, and strengthen control over their development.
According to the “Nomenclature of works and services in healthcare” approved by the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation in 2004, 1 c.u. = 10 minutes of medical staff work.
"Budget", 2014, N 9
The relevance of the issues of factor analysis of income, the effectiveness of managing assets that generate future income, and the use of systems for early detection and prevention of structural risks that arise in the process of planning and executing the budget and are significant from an economic point of view have increased significantly over the past few years.
Modern economic situation contributes to the growth of interest in high-performance solutions for automating the processes of risk analysis, control and monitoring in real time. The need for advanced forecasting functions becomes a priority, and the tasks of identifying factor dependencies in the process of income analysis become of paramount importance to ensure the timeliness and validity of managerial decisions.
Today, most software companies have a wide enough product line to provide A complex approach to the automation of analysis functions. The use of such software as a tool for effective revenue management allows you to implement the required risk management methodology and at the same time helps to increase the degree and completeness of the coverage of the analyzed information and ensures the effectiveness of the subsequent use of the analysis results.
The effectiveness of revenue management largely depends on the accuracy of the predictive assessment of budget revenues. At the same time, one of the key tasks is not only the construction accurate forecast, but also the identification of factors that have the most significant impact on the value of the predictive estimate.
Building a model of factor relationships, as a rule, is based on basic economic concepts, such as, for example, the concept of primary income, one of the main components of which is income individuals received in exchange for their labor participation in production processes. Thus, the dynamics of the indicator of receipts from personal income taxes is one of the most telling and accurate indicators of changes in the process of generating income from the production of products (services).
The high frequency of available information on the indicator of personal income tax revenues makes it possible to use it as an influencing factor with a significant weighting factor. In addition, the change in the values of the indicator of receipts from the personal income tax is of a leading nature and allows you to track changes in the policy in a timely manner. tax planning and optimization of the cost structure of organizations paying income tax.
Not less economic interest is a value added tax revenue measure that indirectly measures the value created in production and reflects the contribution to production labor resources and capital. The positive dynamics of the budget revenues from value added tax, as a rule, indicates an increase in final consumption within the state, which, in turn, can be assessed as an increase in the welfare of the country's population. That is, it can be considered as an increase in personal income and, accordingly, an increase in budget revenues from personal income tax. However, when constructing factor models, considerable attention should be paid to existing inflationary processes, which can have a significant impact on the dynamics of budget revenue indicators.
International Management Practice tax revenue often based on the principles of mutual trust and building partnerships with systemically important taxpayer organizations. This mechanism is based on tracking and analyzing tax risks on financial and economic transactions carried out and planned in the process of generating income, and timely response and prevention of risky transactions that may lead to violations of tax, currency and other legislation. Such extended information interaction allows for a more detailed study of dependencies and the determination of influencing factors in the process of formation of primary income, and also allows you to perform procedures for modeling factor interdependencies in real time.
However, the construction of factor models is not limited to the analysis of the composition and structure of individual components of income and expenses that reduce future tax revenues. The composition, structure and quality of assets capable of generating income and ensuring the growth of tax revenues are being carefully studied. At the same time, it should be taken into account that the types of assets, the sources of their formation, the geography of production and consumption can have a significant impact on income indicators.
The capabilities of analytical tools make it possible to provide automatic testing of the built factor models in order to identify potential risks. The main task of scenario testing of the created models is to select the minimum number of the most significant factor dependencies that demonstrate a high value of risk assessment, as well as to identify negative trends in the dynamics of the resulting indicators that have a significant impact on the volume of future tax revenues.
To solve this problem, a wide range of functionality software products for describing the rules and scenarios for testing interconnections and interdependencies. At the same time, for each method used in the test scenario, it is possible to determine individual weight coefficients and thresholds for the purpose of subsequent calibration and simulation of test execution.
Thus, scenario testing makes it possible at an early stage to identify and quantify potential risks that are most significant from an economic point of view. As a result of testing factorial models, alerts are generated, which are sent for a detailed study to a specialist in risk analysis.
Possibilities of integration with systems of planning and execution of budget revenues allow for the analysis of performance indicators and reporting in real time. This increases the validity and timeliness of decisions made, as well as monitors and optimizes the number of cases of identifying potential risks and their further study.
Software products, as a rule, allow for joint rapid research with advanced analysis and workload distribution, taking into account the qualifications of specialists, which ensures target orientation on the study of the most significant risks. At the same time, for a detailed study, a specialist analyst receives a complete picture of the test results for a particular risk identification strategy. In addition, the advanced analysis provides an explanation of why the alert system identified a potential risk occurrence, with a description of the nature of the identified threats.
Support for a variety of test scenarios improves the early warning system and reduces financial losses through early detection (identification) of potential risks, long-term risk reduction, multi-level control of the completeness and reliability of revenue data, monitoring of revenue management performance indicators, as well as automatic logging forecasting results and factor analysis.
M.A. Krasheninnikova
Architect
decision expertise center
for the general government sector
During fiscal year and at the end of its annual cycle, the financial authorities constantly conduct analytical work on the results of the preparation and execution of the budget.
Objectives of budget analysis:
assessment of the final results of the preparation and execution of the budget;
substantiation of financial and budgetary policy;
substantiation of the parameters of indicators in the formation of budgets;
identification of factors and causes that influenced the non-fulfillment of planned budget indicators;
justification for the adoption and verification of the implementation of resolutions and decisions of authorities in the field of management;
identification of reserves in the preparation and execution of the budget;
ensuring full, timely and stable implementation of the revenue mobilization plan;
ensuring the full and timely implementation of the plan for financing the activities provided for in the budget;
identification of shortcomings in the activities of recipients of budgetary funds, leading to irrational, inappropriate and inefficient use of budgetary allocations;
determination of economic and social efficiency of budget expenditures;
identification of deficiencies in the work of financial authorities in the course of the preparation and execution of the budget and preparation of proposals for their elimination;
improvement of the budgetary process and interbudgetary relations.
In addition, budget analysis allows you to:
determine the level of financial self-sufficiency of the territory, the state of the base of its own income;
determine the level of sustainability of the municipal budget;
identify factors affecting the financial situation municipality, and the degree of influence of these factors on the local budget;
determine the acceptability and fairness, from the point of view of the population, of the budget policy pursued by the local administration. (19. p. 11)
In the modern practice of the work of financial authorities, it is mainly used analysis of the execution of budget indicators. Issues related to the analysis of the state of budgets, their sustainability, have not yet been sufficiently developed.
For budget analysis, certain methods and tools.
The simplest method is comparison , when the budget indicators of the reporting period are compared either with the planned ones or with the indicators for the previous period (basic). When comparing indicators for the previous period, it is necessary to achieve their comparability, i.e. indicators should be recalculated taking into account the homogeneity of the constituent elements, inflationary processes in the economy, assessment methods, etc.
The next method is groupings when indicators are grouped and summarized in tables. This allows you to carry out analytical calculations, detect trends in the development of individual phenomena and their relationships, factors that affect the change in indicators.
Chain setting method , orelimination , is to replace a separate reporting indicator with a basic one. At the same time, all other indicators remain unchanged. This method allows you to determine the impact of individual factors on the total budget indicator.
As a tool for budget analysis can be used budget ratios - relative indicators of the financial condition of the territory, which express the relationship of some absolute budget indicators to others.
Budget coefficients can be used to compare indicators of the financial condition of a particular territory with similar indicators of other territories, to identify the dynamics of development of indicators and trends in the financial condition of the territory.
Budget analysis should be conducted separately for income and expenditure.
For budget analysis can be used:
1) horizontal analysis, during which current budget indicators are compared with indicators for the previous period, as well as planned indicators with actual ones;
2) vertical analysis, as a result of which the budget structure is determined, the share of individual budget indicators in the final indicator and their impact on overall results;
3) trend analysis, which is carried out in order to identify trends in the dynamics of budget indicators. In the course of this analysis, planned or reported indicators for a number of years are compared. Based on a retrospective analysis, it is possible to forecast budget indicators for the future;
4) factor analysis, the essence of which is to identify the influence of individual factors on budget indicators (for example, the impact on the value of indicators of expenditures on socio-cultural events of such factors as the number of contingent of budgetary institutions, the period of operation of these institutions, the price level, inflation indices, etc.) .
In the course of analytical work, absolute indicators of the revenue and expenditure parts of the budget can be used, relative indicators - budgetary coefficients (budgetary autonomy, self-revenue security, the ratio of own and regulatory income, etc.); identify trends in the development of budget indicators, quantitative and qualitative aspects of the influence of individual factors on the process of formation and execution of the budget.
Sustainability level local budget may be determined by the amount of funds needed to ensure the minimum budget expenditures.
The stability of the budget is characterized by four types of its state:
absolutely stable;
normal;
unstable;
crisis.
The following methods for determining the degree of sustainability of budgets are proposed:
1. Absolutely sustainable condition budget is possible provided that
Expenses< собственные доходы бюджета
Budgeting is one of the most important elements of management accounting, the main tasks of which are the preparation of preliminary budgets, the prompt identification of deviations, factorial analysis of the results obtained and the search for best options management decisions.
Analysis of the company's budget execution is a comparison of actual results with planned ones and identification of the causes of deviations in natural, absolute and relative values.
A company that wants to excel in the competition, especially in a economic instability should pay special attention to the analysis of budget execution, as this allows you to reveal many problems in management, strengthen control over costs, and determine those responsible for performance results.
Preliminary stage. The analysis is carried out at the stage of budget formation in order to substantiate the data.
The current (intermediate) stage. The analysis is carried out at the stage of budget execution. A set of preventive measures to identify unreasonable costs and deviations. Making decisions on the need to make adjustments to the budget or tighten control over budget execution.
The final stage. Analysis of deviations and their causes is carried out based on the results of the period. Development of measures to minimize the impact of negative factors and consolidate positive ones in the future. Formation of conclusions and recommendations for the next planning period
Figure 1. Analysis of deviations on the example of the software product "WA: Financier".
Analysis of deviations, aimed at developing management decisions and tactics, involves a detailed analysis that reflects the determination of the degree of influence of various factors on performance indicators. The method of factor analysis is as follows:
Analysis of deviations at all stages should take into account both the current and strategic plans of the company. Plan fact analysis of budget execution of income and expenses can be carried out, for example, both for the company as a whole and for individual structural divisions, regions, projects.
Figure 2. Analysis of deviations on the example of the software product "WA: Financier".
Plan-fact analysis of the budget on the example of the WA system: The financier allows you to evaluate deviations in absolute and relative terms by comparing the indicators planned in the budgets with the actual results in any analytical sections.
Thus, budget analysis helps to identify problems, highlights existing opportunities, facilitates decision-making and coordination of activities between company departments.
Analysis structure. During the budget year and at the end of its annual cycle, the territorial financial authorities constantly carry out analytical work based on the results of the preparation and execution of the budget.
Budget analysis includes analysis of budget execution and the financial condition of the territory.
The purpose of the budget analysis is:
assessment of the final results of the preparation and execution of the budget;
substantiation of the financial and budgetary policy of the administrations of the territories;
substantiation of the parameters of indicators in the formation of budgets;
identification of factors and causes that influenced the non-fulfillment of planned budget indicators;
justification for the adoption and verification of the implementation of resolutions and decisions of authorities in the field of management;
identification of reserves in the preparation and execution of the budget;
ensuring the full, timely and stable implementation of the plan for mobilizing revenues to the budget;
ensuring the full and timely implementation of the plan for financing the activities provided for in the budget;
identification of shortcomings in the activities of recipients of budgetary funds, leading to irrational, inappropriate and inefficient use of budgetary allocations;
determination of economic and social efficiency of budget expenditures;
identification of shortcomings in the work of financial authorities in the course of budget preparation and execution, preparation of proposals for their elimination;
improvement of the budgetary process and interbudgetary relations.
In addition to the listed tasks common to all budgets, the analysis of territorial budgets allows:
determine the level of financial self-sufficiency of the territory, the state of the base of its own income;
determine the level of sustainability of the territorial budget;
identify factors affecting the financial situation of the territory, and the degree of their influence on the territorial budget;
determine the acceptability and fairness from the point of view of the population of the budget policy pursued by the local administration.
Financial and regulatory authorities analyze the state of:
provision and repayment of budget credits, loans;
provision and fulfillment of obligations under state guarantees;
provision of budget investments, including concluded contracts, in terms of ensuring public interests.
It is also important for the administration of the territory to obtain, on the basis of analysis, objective information about the state of the financial base of the territory and determine the level of stability of the territorial budget.
In the modern practice of the work of financial bodies, analyzes of the execution of budget indicators are mainly used. Issues related to the analysis of the state of budgets and their stability have not yet been sufficiently developed. At the same time, in the conditions of the unstable state of the economy in Russia as a whole and in the regions, the increasing role of territorial authorities and territorial budgets in solving economic and social problems, the problems of sustainability of territorial budgets, and, consequently, the analysis of these problems are very relevant.
Methods of analysis. Certain methods and tools are used to analyze the budget.
The simplest method is a comparison, when the budget indicators of the reporting period are compared either with the planned ones or with the indicators for the previous period (basic). When comparing indicators for the previous period, it is necessary to achieve their comparability, i.e. indicators should be recalculated taking into account the homogeneity of the constituent elements, inflationary processes in the economy, assessment methods, etc.
The method of grouping indicators into tables makes it possible to carry out analytical calculations, identify trends in the development of individual phenomena and their relationships, factors that affect the change in indicators.
The method of chain substitutions, or elimination, consists in replacing a separate reporting indicator with a basic one. At the same time, all other indicators remain unchanged. This method allows you to determine the impact of individual factors on the total budget indicator.
As a tool for budget analysis, budget coefficients can be used - relative indicators of the financial condition of the territory, which express the relationship of some absolute budget indicators to others.
Budget ratios can be used:
to compare indicators of the financial condition of a particular territory with similar indicators of other territories;
to identify the dynamics of development of indicators and trends in the financial condition of the territories.
The budget should be analyzed separately for revenues and expenditures.
For budget analysis, you can use:
horizontal analysis, during which current budget indicators are compared with indicators for the previous period, as well as planned indicators with actual ones;
vertical analysis, which determines the structure of the budget, the share of individual budget indicators in the final indicator and their impact on overall results;
trend analysis, which is carried out in order to identify trends in the dynamics of budget indicators. In the course of this analysis, planned or reported indicators for a number of years are compared. Based on a retrospective analysis, it is possible to forecast budget indicators;
factor analysis, the essence of which is to identify the influence of individual factors on budget indicators (for example, the impact on the value of expenditure indicators for socio-cultural events of such factors as the number of contingent budget institutions, period
the functioning of these institutions, the price level, inflation indices, etc.).
In the course of analytical work, absolute indicators of the revenue and expenditure parts of the budget can be used, relative indicators - budgetary coefficients (budgetary autonomy, self-sufficiency in own income, the ratio of own and redistributed income, etc.); identify trends in the development of budget indicators, quantitative and qualitative aspects of the influence of individual factors on the process of formation and execution of the budget.
Example. Let's carry out the budget analysis by the method of the analysis of stability of the territorial budget.
The level of sustainability of the territorial budget can be determined by the amount of funds needed to ensure minimum, deterministic budget expenditures. Minimum budget expenditures - a concept repeatedly reflected in legislative acts Russian Federation. These are the funds provided in the budget for financing constitutionally guaranteed measures for the life support of the population, i.e. directed to the maintenance of institutions, enterprises and organizations that are on the budget and provide free or on preferential terms services and goods to the population.
The stability of the budget can be characterized by four types of its state:
absolutely stable;
normal;
unstable;
crisis.
Let us determine the degree of stability of territorial budgets by the following methods.
1. An absolutely sustainable state of the budget is possible provided
R M<Д С + Д П,
where R M -- minimum budget expenditures;
D C - own budget revenues;
D P - redistributed budget revenues.
Normal condition:
R M \u003d D C + D P.
Unstable state:
R M \u003d D C + D P + Dd,
where D D - additionally attracted financial resources (free balances of budgetary funds, funds of targeted budgetary funds, etc.).
Crisis state:
R m > D s + D r.
The following quantitative criteria are also possible for determining the degree of budget sustainability.
An absolutely stable state of the budget is possible under the following conditions:
D C: D \u003d 60 + 70%;
D P: D \u003d 30 + 40%;
Z: P \u003d 10 + 15%,
where D is the total amount of budget revenues;
Z - budget debt;
R -- the total amount of budget expenditures.
Normal state of the budget:
Ds: D = 40+50%;
Dp: D \u003d 50 + 60%;
Z: P = 30 + 35%.
Unstable state:
Ds: D = 5+10%;
D p: D \u003d 90 + 95%;
Z: P = 40 + 50%.
The above ratios of own and redistributed income may be different for different regions, so they should be determined for each subject of the Russian Federation on the basis of analysis.
When analyzing the budget, budget coefficients can be used as tools. They can be used to compare the characteristics of the budget for different periods of time, to compare the budget indicators of a particular territory with similar indicators of the budgets of other territories. Such coefficients can be used as standards (criteria) for the state of the budget. These criteria can be developed on the basis of the most successfully compiled and executed budgets, on the basis of groups of budgets formed on a territorial basis, etc.
Budget analysis can be carried out on the basis of the results of both the preparation and execution of the budget.
Budgeting analysis includes the following areas of research:
analysis of the financial condition of industries in the sphere of material production;
expected execution of the current year's budget;
indicators of the consolidated financial balance;
the revenue part of the draft budget by source of income;
the expenditure part of the draft budget in the areas of use of budgetary funds.
Budget execution analysis includes:
analysis of the performance of income indicators for individual sources and sectors of the economy;
execution of the plan of expenditures in the areas of financing and branches of the production and non-production sphere;
fulfillment of debt budget obligations;
cash execution of the budget.
Conducting a comprehensive analysis of the budget allows the representative and executive authorities to obtain the necessary information for making decisions in the formation and implementation of financial policy, identifying reserves in mobilizing funds to the budget, increasing the efficiency of their use, and strengthening control over their development.
