Forecast of the main budget parameters budget system Russian Federation is based on the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators taken into account in the relevant forecast options. The budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation in the medium term are financially balanced for all options: expenditures are fully covered by revenues and sources of financing the deficit.
Oil and gas revenues of the federal budget in relation to GDP in the base version of the forecast will decrease and is at the level of 5.4-5.8% of GDP in 2016-2019 annually. In the "base+" option, federal budget oil and gas revenues will be 0.7% of GDP higher in 2017 and by about 1.3% of GDP in 2018-2019 compared to the baseline due to higher oil prices. In the target scenario, the deviation will not be so significant due to a stronger exchange rate national currency. Non-oil and gas revenues will be at the level of 9.2 - 9.7% of GDP annually with small deviations between forecast options.
In the "base+" and target options, due to the higher nominal value of GDP, federal budget expenditures relative to GDP will be lower by 0.4 - 0.5% of GDP and 0.5 - 1% of GDP, respectively. At the same time, the structure of federal budget expenditures will be more favorable compared to the base case - a smaller amount of debt service expenditures and interbudgetary transfers to state budgets will be required. off-budget funds due to their greater provision with insurance premiums, which in general frees up additional resources that can be directed to the development of the economy.
For the period 2017 - 2019 federal budget will be deficient in the baseline forecast. Financing the federal budget deficit will require the use of oil and gas funds and a significant positive balance of government borrowings. securities. In addition, privatization should become an important source of covering the deficit. state property. A smaller deficit in the "base+" and target options relative to the baseline forecast option allows a more restrained pace to increase the volume of government borrowing until 2018, and from 2019 the federal budget for these options will be deficit-free.
The primary task of the budget policy is to continue the work on prioritization and optimization of federal budget expenditures, which is necessary for the transition to the optimal structure of public expenditures with an emphasis on areas that most favorably affect the economic growth. Changes in the expenditure part of the federal budget will affect the issues of increasing efficiency budget spending, revision government programs Russian Federation, change of targets and indicators of social economic development Russian Federation. At the same time, one of the criteria for reviewing expenditures on state programs should be the efficiency of their implementation, including macroeconomic efficiency. As a result, an increase in the share of productive expenditures in the structure of the budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation will be ensured.
The government commission for budget projections has approved a draft freeze on the funded part of the pension for 2017-2019, the head of the pension fund Russian Anton Drozdov.
"The budget commission today agreed with the parameters of the federal budget and our budget (PFR budget - RNS), in which the accumulative fund is frozen," Drozdov told reporters.
The Ministry of Finance has already sent a draft law on freezing the funded part of pensions to the Ministry of Labor.
“We received the day before yesterday or yesterday from the Ministry of Finance a project for...
18:58
The Ministry of Finance will work on the issue of taxation of self-employed citizens following the results of the proposed three-year tax holidays, however, the department is not aimed at fiscal fees, but at the official registration of the self-employed to legalize this sector, Deputy Finance Minister Ilya Trunin told reporters.
“We want the self-employed to be in conditions no worse than foreign workers, who can now pay a patent of 1,000 rubles. per month and within a certain amount, do not submit declarations, (for them. - RNS) only migrants need accounting ...
18:19
The documents that are submitted to the State Duma along with the three-year budget will be considered at a government meeting not only on October 13, but also on October 20 and, possibly, October 27, Labor Minister Maxim Topilin said at a meeting of the tripartite commission on Friday.
Earlier, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that by October 28, the entire budget package should go to the State Duma.
“Let's go through some of the remaining forks, work with those documents that form the basis of the budget ideology and are traditionally submitted together ...
16:35
The Russian Ministry of Finance considers that the most likely scenario for the development of events in the oil market is the stabilization of prices at the level of $40-50 per barrel.
“Stabilization of oil prices in the long term at $40-50 per barrel in constant prices (2016) seems to be the most likely scenario,” says the draft Guidelines for Budget Policy (ONBP) for 2017-2019, published on the website of the State Duma Committee on budget and taxes.
The development of oil production technologies has led to a change in the mechanism ...
16:30
The federal budget deficit during the transition period should be consistent with the target consolidation trajectory of reducing the deficit by 1 percentage point of GDP per year, with stable oil prices at $40 per barrel. This is stated in the draft of the main directions of the budget policy for 2017-2019 prepared by the Ministry of Finance, published by the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes.
In accordance with the draft document, in 2017 the federal budget deficit will be 3% of GDP, 2% of GDP in 2018 and 1% of GDP in 2019.
16:28
The results of 2015–2016 demonstrated a high ability Russian economy to adaptation follows from the draft "Guidelines for the budget policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019". The document was sent by the Ministry of Finance to the State Duma.
“Despite the “rigidity” inherent in the domestic economy, the results of 2015-2016 clearly demonstrated its high ability to adapt with relatively modest transformational output losses: GDP in 2015 decreased by 3.7% compared to a fall of 7.8% in 2009 ...
16:17
Russia's economic policy should provide macroeconomic balance, which implies a low dependence on external factors, follows from the draft Guidelines for the budget policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019 sent by the Ministry of Finance to the State Duma.
The document notes that the first economic policy ensuring a balanced development of the country and expanding the potential domestic economy in difficult conditions of increased mobility of the external conjuncture.
<...>15:57
In 2017, the share of defense spending will decrease to 3.3% of GDP, follows from the draft Guidelines for Budget Policy for 2017-2019. The document was published by the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes.
“In the structure of expenditures of the budgets of the budget system by sections of the functional classification in 2017, the main share of expenditures are expenditures on social policy (13.5% of GDP), national defense (3.3% of GDP), national economy(4.4% of GDP), education (3.6% of GDP), national security and law enforcement...
15:54
The moratorium on the transfer of the funded part of the pension will be extended for the three-year period 2017-2019, follows from the draft Guidelines for the budget policy for 2017-2019. The document was published by the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes.
“The transfer for compulsory pension insurance is established taking into account the decision to extend for 2017–2019 the moratorium on contributions to the funded component of the compulsory pension insurance", the document says.
Previously, about the planned extension of the freeze...
14:07
A package of draft laws on the federal budget for 2017 and the planning period of 2018-2019 should be submitted to the State Duma by October 28, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at a meeting on Friday.
This year, in connection with the elections to the State Duma, the deadline for submitting the budget to the lower house of parliament was postponed a month later - until November 1, 2016.
“We will go through some of the remaining forks, work with those documents that form the basis of the ideology of the budget and are traditionally submitted to the State Duma along with it. This Forecast is social...
14:05
The draft federal budget for 2017 and the planning period of 2018-2019 has been drawn up taking into account the preservation of anti-Russian sanctions throughout the entire period. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced this at a meeting on Friday.
“When forming the project, we proceed from a cautious assessment economic situation in world markets, from a conservative estimate. In particular, from the rather low trajectory of oil prices within $40 per barrel of Urals oil for all three years and from the possible continuation of sanctions until the end of the forecast...
The Government and the Ministry of Finance, having analyzed the experience of previous periods, decided to return to a three-year budget planning, as indicated by the adopted bill "The main directions of budget policy for 2017 and the planning period of 2018 and 2019." But, despite all the advantages of this approach, it is difficult to predict whether it will be possible to follow the parameters originally laid down in the project and whether such a policy will be perceived by private business as a signal that indicates the stabilization of the situation in the country's economy and investment security.
The budget policy of the Russian Federation for 2017-2019 provides for a deficit in revenues, which will be due to a reduction in demand for Russian exports, a decrease in oil prices and a number of other external factors. To cover the deficit, the government plans to fill the budget by mobilizing additional income by taking the following steps:
Expenses will be formed within the framework of the budget policy for 2017-2019 and rules designed to reduce the sensitivity of the system to price volatility in global oil markets. The full force of the fiscal rules will come into effect in 2020, while the period 2017-2019 recognized by the government as transitional to avoid the shock of a sharp cut in government spending.
In accordance with the proposal of the Ministry of Finance, by 2020 expenditures will be formed from three components:
Based on this construction, we can conclude that the budget policy for 2017-2019. is designed not only to solve the problem of monetary regulation, but also to reduce the share of direct participation of the state in the economy, for which a phased stabilization is planned tax burden and massive privatization.
Over the past few years, spending has been growing in three main areas (non-productive), which only contributed to the “eating up” of the budget: social policy (primarily pension payments), national defense and debt servicing. The new approach assumes a reduction in the volume of expenditures with an increase in their efficiency for a more rational use of the funds received.
Depending on the market situation, external factors and growth indicators of the Russian economy, the government and the Ministry of Finance may revise the main directions of the budget policy for 2017-2019, which may be due to such factors:
The main tasks of the budget policy for 2019 that need to be addressed are:
At the same time, in 2019, the government rejected the introduction of a sales tax, the abolition of preferential rates with VAT, etc.
Chairman of the Accounts Chamber harshly criticizes the budget of the Russian Federation 2017-2019 video:
Vladimir Viktorovich KLIMANOV, Director of the Institute for Public Finance Reform, Head of the RANEPA Department, Doctor of Economics
The beginning of a new financial year always causes a desire to critically evaluate the outgoing year. 2017 for both federal and regional budgets turned out to be difficult, but still more positive than it could have been.
Return to the three-year budget
I remember that the federal budget for 2017 was adopted literally from the wheels. We, members of the Public Council under the Ministry of Finance of Russia, then noted as a wish-comment that we should submit almost simultaneously for consideration the drafts of the Main Directions of the Budgetary and tax policy for the next three years and the federal budget itself is incorrect.
In many respects, the difficulties with the development of new directions of budget policy were then related to the fact that the return to three-year budget planning seemed more important than others, which should have helped reduce the level of uncertainty and ensure greater predictability of macroeconomic and business conditions. After all, the federal budget for 2016, as well as the budgets of 67 subjects of the Federation, due to economic crisis was adopted in a one-year format, but in 2017 all regions (with the exception of Crimea and Sevastopol) returned to planning for a three-year period.
Presenting the draft federal budget for 2017, the Government of the Russian Federation declared that at an oil price of $40 per barrel, the deficit would not exceed 3%, and in 2018 and 2019 it would be only 2 and 1% of GDP, respectively. The goal of the budget policy for 2017 was defined as ensuring a balanced development of the country and expanding the potential of the domestic economy. This would have to happen if the target macroeconomic equilibrium were achieved, including through low budget susceptibility to fluctuations in oil prices and low inflation, and at the micro level, structural imbalances and obstacles to development associated with demographic challenges, competitiveness and resource allocation efficiency.
The federal budget was adopted complex, but realistic. Therefore, amendments to it were made only twice, in July and November. Adjusted volumes of federal budget revenues should eventually amount to about 14.7 trillion rubles, or 16% country's GDP, and expenses - 16.7 trillion rubles, or 18.2% of GDP. That is, even in the current difficult circumstances, it was possible to keep the federal budget deficit in the amount of 2.2% of GDP (less than planned).
Implementation of state programs and project approach
It was necessary to solve various budgetary tasks, as before, through the instrument of state programs, linking strategic planning with budgetary planning. After the federal budget was formed for the first time in 2016 not only in the context of state programs, but also subprograms and main events, there was an expectation that in 2017 the budget would be completely programmatic. But no, in the program context, less than 60% of the expenditures were approved, since both the huge (almost 3.5 trillion rubles) interbudget transfer to the Pension Fund and defense spending, planned as separate state programs, remained in the non-program part. Therefore, the task set earlier as a target indicator for the Russian Ministry of Finance, to increase the share of program spending to 70%, remained unfulfilled and will not be achieved even in 2018.
At the same time, when linking the budget with program-targeted instruments public policy In 2017, a completely different challenge arose. Active implementation in the system government controlled The project approach necessitated the presentation of the budget not only in the programmatic, but also in the project context. In February 2017, the Prime Minister set such an operational task for the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia and the Ministry of Finance of Russia at the Sochi Investment Forum. Yes, the distribution of budgetary appropriations for priority programs and projects approved by the government has also begun to be carried out, but even here the process has not yet been completed.
Legislative changes and innovations
Overall, in 2017, budget legislation continued to be highly volatile. The Budget Code alone has been amended and supplemented eight times. They also concerned the formation of a new budget rule related to changes in macroeconomic conditions and the depletion of the Reserve Fund (as a result, it was merged with the Fund national welfare), and the emergence of public law companies in the budget legislation, and the strengthening of positions in some issues Accounts Chamber, and purely technical adjustments that determine the fulfillment of budgetary obligations during the financial year.
Perhaps the biggest changes concerned interbudgetary relations. One of the most significant innovations in 2017 in this matter was the signing of agreements between the Federation and the regions when providing not only inter-budget subsidies, but also subsidies (previously such agreements were concluded only with highly subsidized regions). Even the very concept of subsidies in Article 6 of the Budget Code had to be adjusted, specifying that these uncolored transfers may have “conditions for their provision”. As a result, the procedure introduced only in 2017 has already changed several times. But much remains uncertain so far. First of all, how and to what extent it is possible and necessary to apply rather tough measures of budget coercion to the regions that have not fulfilled the conditions of these agreements. At the end of November, along with the adoption of the budget for 2018, further changes were adopted, including those related to the suspension of a number of provisions regarding the distribution of subsidies to the regions, including the fact that the distribution of subsidies in the federal budget for the next three years is fixed only for one year.
It turned out to be very important to tighten the procedure for distributing subsidies, which formally began to be carried out at the beginning of the financial year, without delaying this process, and to legislate a number of requirements for calculating the subsidies themselves. For example, there was an obligation to take into account the level of estimated budgetary sufficiency of the regions in the methodology for distributing subsidies. Later, clarifications were made on what exactly should not be distributed between the regions until the beginning of February of this year. But more important, perhaps, is something else - experts, and representatives of authorities last years have repeatedly stated the need to consolidate various small subsidies into larger ones. In 2017, this partially happened, but in insignificant volumes. There are still many types of subsidies and other intergovernmental transfers, the administration of which sometimes "eats" all the benefits of their target significance for the region.
Finally, the resounding news of 2017 for many regions was the information from the Presidium of the State Council, held in Ulyanovsk, where the President of the Russian Federation announced the restructuring program public debt regions. The rules for restructuring the obligations (debt) of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation to the Federation for budget loans were approved at the end of September. In fact, the federal center, recognizing that many regions will not be able to cope with the repayment of their public debt on their own, offered them a multi-year program of action, which also implies the improvement of the system public finance, and joint actions to optimize spending commitments. As a result of tough, sometimes even painful measures, the public debt of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation did not increase in 2017, but even slightly decreased. By the beginning of December, it amounted to just over 2.1 trillion rubles, the debt municipalities- 340 billion rubles.
New directions of the three-year plan
As for the budget policy in general, back in the spring of 2017 it was legally established that the main directions of the budget, tax and customs tariff policy would henceforth be presented in one document, this was implemented already in the fall. In this regard, the new main directions have become like a huge analytical document with many terms and principles, which, it seems to me, were not previously used in the vocabulary of financial authorities at all. An entire section of the Focus Areas for 2018-2020 is devoted to, for example, “ensuring inter-regional inclusiveness”. We have learned that the budget rules have a “new design”, and when working with companies with state participation, an “imputed subsidy” arises, which has never been taken into account anywhere before. Actually, the goal of the budget and tax policy for the next three years is again to ensure a balanced development of the country and expand the potential of the domestic economy.
The federal budget for 2018 itself was adopted with a deficit of 1.3% of GDP. It is expected that its income will amount to 15.3 trillion, and expenses - 16.5 trillion rubles. The situation with budgets in most regions will be more difficult, but updated rules distribution of interbudgetary transfers, and the launch of a regional debt restructuring program, and the actual expected full-fledged exit from the economic crisis give hope that the 2018 financial year will be more successful than the previous one.
It is too early to talk about how the main directions of the budget policy for 2017 will affect, and what impact they will have on the lives of ordinary citizens, but the picture is already clearing up. Practice shows one thing - the country does not have enough funds to fulfill all the government's promises. Before the elections to the State Duma, Olga Golodets stated, but in the end it was decided to stop at the amount of 7500.
The actual freezing of the minimum wage was done under the pretext of concern for individual entrepreneurs who would have to increase contributions to non-budgetary funds by 38%. But no one remembered the million state employees who did not wait for the promised salary increase. The reason is simple - there is no money. Summing up the results of 2015 showed that the actual budget expenditures amounted to 15,620.3 billion rubles, while revenues were only 13,659.2 billion. The deficit is slightly less than two trillion, that is, about 15%, while the planned figure is 3%.
The reasons for this state of affairs are not only in oil quotes, the methodology for forecasting revenues to the 2017 budget also takes into account the reduction in tax revenues. Index industrial production across the country fell to 98% compared to the previous period. In 2016, the number of small businesses decreased by 70,000 units. An additional concern is the reduction in exports, which has decreased by 15%.
These phenomena led to the fact that the revenue side of the budget will amount to 13.436 trillion. rub. which is lower than last year's figure in absolute terms, even without taking into account inflation. At the same time, expenses are planned in the amount of 16.181 trillion. The deficit is planned to be closed at the expense of the Reserve Fund, which will be exhausted in 2017.
If we consider how the planning of the 2017 budget will affect individual citizens, a very clear picture is visible. The priority remains the poor, pensioners and the military. The rest of the state offers to cope with the problems on their own.
It turned out to be impossible to determine the exact amount that will go to the purchase of weapons, the maintenance of the army, special services and police. Almost a quarter of the budget, namely 24%, is distributed among secret expenditure items. Last year this figure was 20%.
For our strategic "sparring partner" USA, this share is 10% of expenses. Although comparing absolute numbers does not make sense, Russia's GDP is equal to that of one state of California.
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation spoke in favor of reducing military spending by 1 trillion. rub., and his opinion was heard. The nominal amount was reduced from 3.84 to 2.88 trillion, but the increase in closed items by 800 billion almost compensates for this difference. So there is no need to worry about national security, it will be fully funded. It is not excluded that the funds included in the 2017 budget will be paid from other sources. For example, from civil pensions.
The total reduction in medical expenses by 33% does not mean that the government does not care about the health of citizens. No, the plans are to redistribute the burden on regional and municipal authorities. The proposed budget policy for 2017-2019 suggests what exactly local budgets bear the bulk of the costs.
These theoretical studies are poorly confirmed by practice; today the regions are in debt, and some of them are on the verge of bankruptcy. Thus, the debt of the Amur Region almost equaled its annual budget.
Although the growth in absolute figures for social programs shows the government's close attention to the needs of the elderly and the disabled, it is too early to rejoice. About 5 trillion, which are allocated for these purposes, gives an increase of 9% compared to last year's figures. However, for 2016:
Don't expect a good standard of living. The government has replaced indexation with a one-time payment, which will save a lot of money in the future by putting the elderly in the waiting mode for such benefits.
An additional 10 billion rubles were allocated for the purpose of education, an increase of 2%. If we take into account inflation, which in 2016 is approaching 7%, then a clear decline in spending will be visible. Although the preparation of the draft budget for 2017 took place under the talk of the younger generation, in practice the situation is far from rosy. The project for 2018 includes a further increase of 4%, after which a reduction of 3 billion rubles is expected.
