The Government and the Ministry of Finance, having analyzed the experience of previous periods, decided to return to a three-year budget planning, as indicated by the adopted bill "The main directions of budget policy for 2017 and the planning period of 2018 and 2019." But, despite all the advantages of this approach, it is difficult to predict whether it will be possible to follow the parameters originally laid down in the project and whether such a policy will be perceived by private business as a signal that indicates the stabilization of the situation in the country's economy and investment security.
The budget policy of the Russian Federation for 2017-2019 provides for a deficit in revenues, which will be due to a reduction in demand for Russian exports, a decrease in oil prices and a number of other external factors. To cover the deficit, the government plans to fill the budget by mobilizing additional income by taking the following steps:
Expenses will be formed within the framework of the budget policy for 2017-2019 and rules designed to reduce the sensitivity of the system to price volatility in global oil markets. In full force budget rules will earn in 2020, while the period 2017-2019. recognized by the government as transitional to avoid the shock of a sharp cut in government spending.
In accordance with the proposal of the Ministry of Finance, by 2020 expenditures will be formed from three components:
Based on this construction, it can be concluded that budget policy for 2017-2019 is designed not only to solve the problem of monetary regulation, but also to reduce the share of direct participation of the state in the economy, for which a phased stabilization is planned tax burden and massive privatization.
Over the past few years, spending has been growing in three main areas (non-productive), which only contributed to the “eating up” of the budget: social policy (primarily pension payments), national defense and debt servicing. The new approach assumes a reduction in the volume of expenditures with an increase in their efficiency for a more rational use of the funds received.
Depending on the market situation, external factors and growth indicators Russian economy, the government and the Ministry of Finance may revise the main directions of the budget policy for 2017-2019, which may be due to such factors:
The main tasks of the budget policy for 2019 that need to be addressed are:
At the same time, in 2019, the government rejected the introduction of a sales tax, the abolition of preferential rates with VAT, etc.
Chairman Accounts Chamber harshly criticizes the budget of the Russian Federation 2017-2019 video:
Publication date: 26.10.2016
Date of change: 26.10.2016
Attached file: pdf, 6.03 MB
MINISTRY OF FINANCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
PROTOCOL No. 11
open meeting of the Public Council
under the Ministry of Finance Russian Federation
| Voting date: | October 11, 2016 |
| presiding | - S.G. Sinelnikov-Murylev |
| Executive Secretary | - A.N. Deryugin |
| Participated | |
| Members of the Public Council | A.G. Aksakov, S.A. Vasiliev, E.E. Gavrilenkov, E.T. Gurvich, A.N. Deryugin, S.M. Drobyshevsky, A.B. Zabotkin, B.I. Zlatkis, A.S. Kalinin, V.A. Mau, A.V. Murychev, V.S. Nazarov, S.G. Sinelnikov-Murylev, A.V. Timofeev, K.S. Ugryumov, A.N. Shokhin, M.A. Eskindarov |
| Responsible employees of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation | A.G. Siluanov, T.G. Nesterenko, I.V. Trunin, M.S. Oreshkin, Yu.I. Zubarev, S.A. Storchak, A.V. Moiseev A.A. Afanasiev, S.V. Barsukov, S.V. Yachevskaya, A.A. Popov, S.V. Romanov, E.P. Yakovleva, G.G. Gesuinov, V.I. Brodsky, A.R. Gaskarov, T.I. Maksimov, S.A. Nikitina, R.E. Artyukhin, R.R. Fedorova, D.S. Khvorostukhin |
| Invited | A.V. Glagolev, A.N. Popov, D.S. satin |
| AGENDA: | |
| 1. Discussion of the draft main directions of the budget policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019. 2. Discussion of the draft guidelines tax policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019. report (20 min.) |
|
| LISTENED | |
| 1. M.S. Oreshkin - with a report on the issue "The main directions of budget policy for 2017 and the planning period of 2018 and 2019". 2. I.V. Trunin - with a report on the issue "The main directions of tax policy for 2017 and the planning period of 2018 and 2019". S.G. took part in the discussion of the reports. Sinelnikov-Murylev, A.G. Siluanov, A.S. Kalinin, A.N. Shokhin, E.T. Gurvich, M.A. Eskindarov, V.A. Mau, K.S. Ugryumov, E.E. Gavrilenkov, A.V. Timofeev. |
|
| DECIDED: | |
| 1. Approve in general the draft main directions of the budget policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019. 2. Approve in general the draft main directions of the tax policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019. The dissenting opinion of the members of the Public Council is presented in the Appendix. |
|
V.A. Mau, S.G. Sinelnikov-Murylev, A.N. Deryugin, S.M. Drobyshevsky, I.A. Sokolov, S.S. Shatalova:
Experts of the RANEPA, the Institute economic policy them. E.T. Gaidar” and VAVT considered the draft main directions of the budget and tax policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019 (hereinafter referred to as ONBP and ONNP) and report the following.
The main directions of the budget policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019
1. The section “Main results of the implementation of the budget policy in 2015-2016” contains a description of what the external conditions were and what happened in the area related to budget policy in recent years. At the same time, there is no analysis of the extent to which all this is related to the achievement of the previously set goals of the budget policy (formulated in similar documents recent years), which of the previously stated succeeded, and what failed to be done and for what reason. As a result, it remains unclear whether this document guide to action, or is rather declarative.
2. In recent years, there has been a lack of continuity in the goals and objectives of the ONBP. Taking into account the fact that the annual ONBP determine the main directions of the budget policy for 3 years, that is, they apply to overlapping time intervals, it can be stated that despite the predominantly medium-term nature of budget planning (with the exception of 2016), the priorities of the budget policy remained short-term , and, moreover, unsustainable, which largely offsets the benefits of adopting a budget for 3 years.
3. The deadline for submitting the ONBP in the current year is almost a week before the consideration of the project itself at a meeting of the Government federal budget greatly devalues the significance of this document, making it an element explanatory note to the budget bill.
4. The goals and objectives of the budget policy formulated in the document often go far beyond the competence of the budget policy itself, and therefore cannot be achieved solely through the use of its tools.
5. The new budget rule raises certain questions, which does not contain any instructions regarding the filling and spending of the Fund national welfare. It seems appropriate to further consider the parameters of the fiscal rule, rather than hastily approving it by the Government within the framework of the ONBP.
6. The document does not at all touch upon the issue of managing the resources of the Reserve Fund and the National Wealth Fund, which is directly related to ensuring budgetary stability and reducing dependence on the situation in the world commodity markets.
7. One of the tasks of the budget policy in the field of interbudgetary relations in the ONBP is “to promote the balance of the budgets of the subjects and local budgets". At the same time, the main share of the reduction in the total revenues of the consolidated budgets of the regions from 11.6% of GDP in 2016 to 11.0% of GDP in 2019 will be due to a reduction in interbudgetary transfers from the federal budget (from 1.8% to 1.4% GDP for the same period). At the same time, this decrease is in no way connected with the reduction of delegated powers, but will affect financial support own regional and local powers. It is also worth noting that this reduction in transfers will be accompanied by a reduction in the revenue base of the regions due to the transfer of a 1% income tax rate to the federal budget. In the absence of a planned change in the delimitation of powers between the federation and the regions, which could lead to a reduction in the spending obligations of regional and local budgets, if necessary, the execution of the May presidential decrees, the main burden of which falls on the regions, the planned reduction in the real volume financial assistance regional budgets is at odds with the solution of this problem.
8. In the field of improving state programs, it is necessary to note the relevance of the proposed measures. At the same time, several fundamental issues remain without consideration, without the solution of which a qualitative change in the efficiency and effectiveness of budget expenditures is impossible:
When declaring the need to transfer greater freedom of action to responsible executors of state programs in exchange for increasing their responsibility for achieving results, government programs and accompanying documents to them acquired a large number of requirements for their detail, which turned them into a heavy add-on, duplicating the functions of strategic documents. This has deprived this tool of flexibility and the ability to keep up with the budget process.
The high share of non-program expenses (about 45% in 2016) and the absence of any prospects for full coverage of the federal budget by program-target principles will not allow them to take advantage of them, and will remain a significant brake on improving budget efficiency.
The main directions of the tax policy of the Russian Federation for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019
1. Like the ONBP, the ONBP is presented in a new format, and like the ONBP, the document does not contain an analysis of the extent to which the previously set tax policy objectives have been achieved. Moreover, in the presented form, it does not contain a description of previously implemented activities in this area. In order for the document to be not declarative, but effective, it seems appropriate to include in it an analysis of the achievements of the previously declared goals and objectives.
2. Among the proposed measures in the field of tax policy, we consider it necessary to support the following:
Introduction of value added tax (VAT) in oil industry for pilot fields (both new and already developed);
Continuation of the “tax maneuver”, including a reduction (up to the abolition in 2018-2020) of export duties on oil, an increase in the mineral extraction tax and a change in the scheme of excise taxes on petroleum products;
Small business support (tax holidays, reduction of tax on expenses for the purchase of cash registers, etc.);
Consideration of the issue of exemption from taxation of coupon income on tradable bonds;
Inventory of non-tax payments and the introduction of those that are essentially taxes into the Tax Code;
Introduction of restrictions on the possibility of offsetting the losses of unprofitable companies as part of a consolidated taxpayer group (CGT) against the profits of profitable participants;
Working on amendments to double tax treaties, as well as from 2018 - the start of automatic exchange tax information with foreign tax authorities.
3. At the same time, the UNPO contains a number of proposals that have either not been widely discussed or have not been sufficiently elaborated measures for their implementation:
Regarding income tax:
i. change in the procedure for carrying forward losses;
ii. change in the proportion of distribution of income tax revenues in favor of the federal budget: 3% in the FB and 17% in the Republic of Belarus (instead of 2:18);
iii. providing income tax incentives to companies that invest in infrastructure facilities in the Far East (until taxes pay off the investment).
Collection, starting from 2018-2019, in the Russian Federation of VAT on imported goods sold by foreign suppliers to Russian individuals using Internet sites (no real mechanism has been proposed to ensure the payment of tax and not allow to circumvent this rule).
Increase in excise taxes on non-alcoholic beer (with an alcohol content of less than 0.5%).
In view of the close relationship between the ONBP and the UNOP, we also suggest that consideration be given to combining these documents in the future into single document“The main directions of fiscal policy for the next fiscal year and planning period.
In view of the foregoing, we consider it possible to agree on the submitted drafts of ONBP and ONNP, taking into account the existing comments.
ME AND. Kuzminov:
National Research University Higher School of Economics, Center for Development Institute, N. Akindinova, A. Chernyavsky
Comments on the Main Directions of the Budget Policy for 2017-2019
1. Assessment of external conditions.
Assessment by the Ministry of Finance of external conditions for the implementation of budget policy in 2017-2019 (in terms of terms of trade) looks reasonable. The short investment cycle and high price elasticity of US shale oil supply, along with other factors, will keep the oil price in the range of $40-50 per barrel in the coming years. (in constant 2016 prices).
2. Assessing potential growth .
On page 23 of the draft ONBP, the rationale for the potential economic growth in Russia, expected in the medium term. It is indicated that this assessment was made on the basis of the Harrod-Domar approach (main works 1948, 1973), which assumes that the level of savings (and investment) is a key factor in economic growth. This approach is contrasted by specialists of the Ministry of Finance with the approach that goes back to the Solow model (1956), which, in addition to the dynamics of factors (labor and capital), explains economic growth by changes in total factor productivity, which combines the effects of changes in technology, resource savings, and returns on human capital. In calculating potential growth (panel regression based on cross-country data), along with the investment rate, specialists of the Ministry of Finance include such factors as changes in the terms of trade, the ratio of budget expenditures to GDP, and the deviation of the level of GDP in terms of the country's purchasing power parity from the average level for the sample.
It should be noted that this approach does not take into account the results of more recent classic studies of economic growth factors, such as Barro (1991), Barro, Sala y Martin (2004), Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992). According to the results of these studies, in addition to those taken into account by specialists of the Ministry of Finance, among the key factors of economic growth, at least, it is necessary to include indicators of the level of education (human capital), the openness of the economy, the development of state and public institutions, and sociocultural factors.
Like The Finance Ministry's approach to determining potential growth dynamics, in our opinion, overestimates the importance of the investment rate for Russia compared to other factors. Characteristic difference between rapidly growing developing countries that started with a low level of GDP per employed person and a high rate of investment (China, Korea), and countries with high as well as an average level of GDP per employed person (including Russia, Brazil, South Africa), which have more moderate pace growth. Actually, the data provided by the Ministry of Finance (chart on page 23) show that the vast majority of countries with average annual growth rates below 2% have very different investment rates (from 18-19% to 26-27% of GDP), which does not allow us to calculate this factor is an unconditional engine of economic growth, at least for countries with medium and high level income.
Despite these remarks, the estimate of 1.5% average annual growth of GDP per person employed in the medium term, given by the Ministry of Finance, seems quite realistic.
3. Federal budget revenues.
The document rightly notes that in the conditions of low oil prices, the key problem is replenishment of budget revenues.
In the medium term, despite low forecast prices oil and gas revenues continue to provide a third of federal budget revenues. At the same time, the condition for the growth of these revenues in nominal terms, which ensures the balancing of the budget with stable oil prices and predicted restrictions on the growth of production and physical volumes of oil and gas exports, is permanent nominal ruble depreciation .
Potentially, this situation creates risks of increasing tax burden in the next budget cycles.
As the main measure for mobilizing revenues, the Ministry of Finance proposes to collect up to 50% of net profit on state-owned shares of companies and FSUE profits. Without rejecting the idea itself, we consider it necessary to think over a number of questions. Companies with state participation have private owners who also claim dividends. It is necessary to assess how the withdrawal of half of the profits in each case will affect the attractiveness of the company for investors (especially given the expected reduction in state participation) and, accordingly, its development. In addition, the prospect of taking 50% of net profits could encourage companies to cut profits by inflating costs. This implies at least that the state should create an effective system of control over the dynamics and cost structure of state-owned companies.
The proposal of the Ministry of Finance to intensify the fight against "gray salaries" in order to increase the collection of taxes and contributions to off-budget funds from those working in the shade and penumbra, of course, corresponds to the principle of fair taxation. However, it should be taken into account that in the conditions of the expected stagnation in the economy in the coming years, this will greatly complicate the survival of people, especially in the outback. We understand that it will not be possible to bring salaries out of the shadows quickly, and therefore we need a serious program to bring out the shadows, containing conditions, incentives, control measures, stages, and not a hope to quickly and radically change the situation by the tax authorities and the police.
4. Federal budget expenditures and budget system.
The ONBP project assumes a reduction in the volume of expenditures of the budget system in 2017 to 35.6% of GDP against 37.3% of GDP in 2016 (36.5% of GDP, excluding realized federal budget guarantees for defense industry loans). The only section that is expected to grow relative to GDP (from 13.4% to 13.5%) is Social Policy, expenditures for other sections in % of GDP either decrease or remain unchanged.
Table 1. Expenditures of the budgetary system by functional classification, % of GDP.
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Total |
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General government issues |
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national defense |
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National economy |
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environmental protection |
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Education |
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Culture, cinematography |
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health care |
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Social politics |
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physical Culture and sport |
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Funds mass media |
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* The surge in revenues to the National economy in 2014 was explained by the one-time transfer of the DIA OFZ for 1 trillion. rub. (1.3% of GDP)
** The surge in spending on the National Defense in 2016 was due to the early implementation of guarantees issued by the federal budget for loans to defense industry enterprises in 2010-2011, the repayment of which fell on 2017-2018 - about 0.8% of GDP.
Taking into account the reductions in 2016, the total level of spending on human capital by 2017 is reduced by 0.5% of GDP and continues to decline until 2019. (Figure 1). In the proposed budget structure, by 2019, expenditures on the economy (government investments and subsidies), as well as expenses on management and the power unit, are cut the most. Keeping the proposed cap on spending on the security bloc is feasible in principle, but will require great political will and the avoidance of new rounds of geopolitical tensions.
raising specific gravity spending on social policy is connected with the unresolved problem of reforming the pension system and will require additional solutions in the coming years.
Figure 1. Enlarged structure of expenditures of the budget system, % of GDP
The spending policy of the federal budget assumes a continued reduction in its participation in health care financing and a minimal increase in education spending (1.8% in 2017), Table 2. Thus, the prospects for financing expenditures on human capital will be in 2017-2019. even more strongly associated with opportunities regional budgets and OMS systems. At the same time, the forecast of the Ministry of Finance assumes a further reduction in both revenues and expenditures of the regions (relative to GDP). The reduction will be associated with a decrease in transfers to the regions in terms of "other transfers". At the same time, the increase in subsidies is supposed to be financed through the “centralization” of 1% income tax, that is, income seized from the regions themselves.
Table 2. Dynamics of federal budget expenditures, billion rubles/% to prev. year
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Index |
2016/ 2015 |
2017/ 2016 |
2018/ 2017 |
2019/ 2018 |
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Total |
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General government issues |
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National Defense* |
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National Security and Law Enforcement |
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National economy |
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Department of Housing and Utilities |
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environmental protection |
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Education |
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Culture, cinematography |
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health care |
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Social politics |
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physical Culture and sport |
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Mass media |
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Interbudgetary transfers of a general nature to the budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation |
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Servicing state and municipal debt |
** The surge in spending on the National Defense in 2016 was due to the early implementation of guarantees issued by the federal budget for loans to defense industry enterprises in 2010-2011, which were repaid in 2017-2018
5. Scarcity.
Starting from 2017, the Ministry of Finance plans to increase net borrowings in the domestic market in 2017-2019 to 1 trillion. rub. This is twice the net borrowings planned for 2016 and significantly exceeds borrowings in the OFZ market over the past five years. In 2014, a sharp increase in domestic debt was associated with the issuance of OFZs to support banking system(OFZs in the amount of 1 trillion rubles were transferred to the DIA). In 2016, for eight months in the OFZ market, net attraction amounted to 226 billion rubles. We know that the increase in spending on the "power block" in 2016 will be fully or partially financed through a special OFZ issue. This means that the Ministry of Finance does not plan to take all 449 billion rubles from the market. specified in the ONBP. This all the more casts doubt on plans to increase borrowing to 1 trillion in the next three years. rub. This strategy also has negative consequences. These include an increase in the cost of borrowing, interest expenses, an increase in the cost of borrowing in the corporate bond market. In all cases, such a decision is associated with risks.
From the ONBP data in the section financing the federal budget deficit, it follows that the Ministry of Finance plans to become a net recipient of budget loans from the regions from 2017. Such loans have been issued since 2008, and the actual balance of the provision and repayment of these loans was negative for the Ministry of Finance from 2008 to 2016. It should be borne in mind that a significant part of the recipients of budget loans are poor regions. It is not clear whether the aforementioned "manoeuvre" with subsidies will be enough to help them.
The main directions of the budget policy for 2018 remain the priorities developed and adopted by the Government of the Russian Federation in 2016. The transition to a 3-year budget planning period is aimed at a consistent and coordinated restructuring of the Russian economy. The task was set to achieve macroeconomic stability independent of fluctuations in energy prices.
In 2016, we managed to cope with the consequences of a sharp drop in oil prices and economic sanctions. For this reason, the conditions of 2016 were taken as the basis for calculating the indicators. In addition, the budget rules by which the ratios are calculated have been changed. The main provisions of the budget rules:
For the entire planned cycle until 2020, the price for Urals oil is set at $40 per barrel. The budget deficit is expected to be reduced by 1% annually.
Key parameters for budget appropriations:
2017-2018 are a transitional period for an increase in the share of non-primary industries in the structure of income and a reduction in revenues from the oil sector.
Since the beginning of 2017, income received from the sale of oil above $40 has been sent to the Reserve Fund. The result was a smoother correlation of the ruble exchange rate in response to fluctuations in the world oil price.
In 2017, a mechanism for the project management method should be developed, tested on pilot projects (2018-2019). The concentration of federal budget expenditures in several areas, increased responsibility and control will help avoid the dispersion of financial resources.
For 2018, the main directions of the budget policy remain to reduce inflation, interest credit rate, activation industrial production in terms of import substitution.
Economic forecasts assume the resumption of world economic growth, the preservation of financial and economic sanctions. Under these conditions, the predicted GDP growth in 2018 - 1.5%.
The main indicators of the forecast for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2018:
Structural problems of the economy remain for the entire planning period, including 2018, the main of which is the reduction of the Reserve Fund and the NWF, which cover the budget deficit.
The demographic situation complicates perestroika: an increase in the number of people of retirement age with a natural decline in the population. To ensure pension payments at the same level, there are two ways out: an increase in the tax burden or redistribution budget funds in favor of the FIU. Related problems are the low retirement age, an inefficient system of retraining and retraining, and the lack of conditions for increasing the mobility of labor personnel.
Since 2018, all state-owned companies (including Sberbank) are required to pay dividends of at least 50% of net profit. This will increase revenues to the state budget, make it more attractive stock market for investors.
The administration (control and accounting) of taxes will be improved. The creation of information bases of taxpayers and goods will make fiscal instruments more flexible and efficient.
From July 1, all retail outlets are required to have cash registers connected to the Federal tax service in online mode.
From February 1, a system for tracking the movement of goods from the border to the final consumer in the territory is introduced EAEU countries with the subsequent connection of other importers.
To stimulate investment activity, the following are provided:
At the same time, a moratorium is established on the introduction of new benefits at the expense of local and regional budgets.
Budget allocations for 2018 are reduced by 2%, with the exception of mandatory ones: public debt servicing, transfers, international obligations.
Budget policy for the period 2018-2020 aims to complete the structural transformation of the economy, making it independent of market fluctuations in energy prices, attractive to external and domestic investors, which will create conditions for sustainable growth.
Basic volumes budget financing calculated based on the plan for 2017-2019. Taken as a basis, they will be indexed to the actual level of inflation in the relevant period.
In 2017-2020 base price for oil brand "Urals" is taken equal to 40 dollars per barrel. The limit of budget expenditures by years is determined as the sum of oil and gas revenues, other revenues and the amount of public debt.
The main points of improving the efficiency of budget policy:
Federal budget revenues will decline during 2018-2020 due to continued low oil prices, production cuts, and depletion of reserves. The structure of the revenue side will change: the share of hydrocarbon exports will decrease, revenues from other industries will increase.
The volume of non-oil and gas revenues (64%) is planned to be received at the expense of own production: VAT, excises, income tax. AT total amount NIGD percentage of these payments for 3 years will be 52%:
Stable inflation and prices will create an opportunity to reduce the NB interest rate. In turn, this will expand the possibilities of long-term lending to producers of non-primary sectors, and will become the basis for sustainable economic growth.
The following tasks are set for the budgets of the subjects:
The revenue side will be equalized through transfers from the Federal budget, the source of which will be the redistribution of part of the profit.
Federal benefits are limited in duration (1, 3, 5 years) and will be transferred to the regional level after their expiration.
To stimulate economic growth in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, it is envisaged:
In 2018-2020 a legal framework for doing business is being created:
From 1.01. 2019 new tax rules should come into force:
Data confirm the correctness of the strategic direction statistical reporting for the first half of 2017. Compared to the corresponding period in 2016, GDP growth amounted to 1.7%. The main growth factors are the increase in domestic demand and business activity.
See video on the budget for the period 2018-2020:
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