The schematic diagram of forecasting any object includes the following main tasks, which are presented in Figure 1.1.
Rice. 1.1. Object prediction scheme
This is simple theoretically, but much more difficult methodically.
The reality of budget indicators largely depends on the methods of budget forecasting used, on their combination, taking into account the specifics of each.
The use of several methods of budget forecasting at the same time is explained by the versatility of this process, the complexity of the tasks to be solved, its dependence on the nature and methods of developing forecasts of social economic development.
The educational literature on budget planning and forecasting recommends the use of the following methods:
➢ Economic Analysis. This method is applied at all stages of the budget process. It allows you to determine the degree of implementation of budget indicators for the past period by comparing the actual data with the planned ones (updated on a specific date). When developing a draft budget, the emphasis in analytical work is on identifying reserves for increasing budget revenues, identifying measures to improve the efficiency of using budget funds, calculation of the expected budget execution for the current year.
➢ Extrapolations. The extrapolation method consists in determining budget indicators on the basis of establishing a stable dynamics of their development. The calculation of the indicators of the draft budget is made on the basis of adjusting the level of indicators achieved in the base period by a relatively stable rate of their growth. Usually used as an aid to initial estimates, as has a number of shortcomings: it does not focus on identifying additional reserves for the growth of budget revenues; does not contribute to the economical use of budgetary funds, tk. the amount of appropriations is planned from the achieved level; does not take into account changes in individual factors in the planned year compared to the base period for calculations. The extrapolation method is based on using the results of trend analysis.
➢ Normative. Its essence is that planned budget figures are calculated on the basis of established norms and financial and budgetary standards. The normative method presupposes the existence of progressive norms and financial and budgetary norms, which are a qualitative basis for budget planning, a prerequisite for complying with the austerity regime. In addition, norms and standards serve as a prerequisite for the introduction of economic and mathematical methods in budget planning.
➢ Balance. This method allows you to link the financial resources of public authorities with the needs for them arising from the forecast of socio-economic development, budget expenditures with their incomes, establish the proportions of the distribution of funds between budgets of different levels, distribute revenues and expenses by quarters. Its use contributes to the sustainability of the budget.
➢ index. It involves the widespread use of a system of various indices in the calculation of planned budget indicators. Its use is due to the development of market relations, the presence of inflationary processes. Currently, macroeconomic indices-deflators of the dynamics of economic objects are used.
➢ Program target. The program-target method allows you to evaluate and select the preferred options for socio-economic development in the target, sectoral and territorial aspects. Programs are a means of solving, first of all, intersectoral, interterritorial fundamentally new problems. Programs are characterized by the presence of a goal specified in several tasks, a combination of various sources of financing for its implementation.
Budget forecasting is carried out by developing various options for the development of the budget, their analysis and justification, assessing the possible degree of achievement of certain goals, depending on the nature of the actions of state authorities and local self-government. Thus, budget forecasting is probabilistic in nature, therefore it is based on the use - in addition to those used in the budget planning process - such methods as:
1. Math modeling- allows you to take into account many interrelated factors that affect budget indicators, choose from several options for the draft budget the most appropriate to the adopted concept of socio-economic development and goals budget policy;
2. Method of expert assessments- involves the generalization and mathematical processing of assessments of specialist experts on a particular issue. The effectiveness of this method depends on the professionalism and competence of the experts. Such forecasting can be quite accurate, however, expert assessments are subjective, depend on the "feelings" of the expert and are not always amenable to rational explanation;
3. Scripting- the development of scenarios is not always based on scientific and objectivity, they always feel the influence of political preferences, but this allows us to assess the consequences of the implementation of certain political promises;
4. econometric forecasting- based on principles economic theory and statistics, allows you to consider the simultaneous change in several variables that affect budget performance. The results of forecasting based on this method can be analyzed using statistical methods;
5. trend method- assumes the dependence of some income groups only on the time factor, therefore, it proceeds from constant rates of change (constant growth rate) or constant absolute changes (linear time trend). The disadvantage of this method is ignoring economic, demographic and other factors. It is used, as a rule, for short-term forecasting of revenues to the budget.
The main task of forecasting and planning budget revenues is to determine the planned fiscal year economically justified amount of tax revenues and other obligatory payments.
The income planning methodology is not legally established and therefore there are no uniform methods, planning principles, formulated requirements for input information sources; there is a weak organization of interaction between public authorities in the process of developing tax forecasts, that is, there is no clear organizational and economic mechanism for forecasting and planning tax revenue in the system of state budget management.
State budget management system define as a set of interacting public authorities that perform the functions of ensuring the formation of budgetary and financial policy, organizing the budget process, managing finances and coordinating activities in this area.
Specified system includes :
- people united in management bodies and carrying out the management process using a combination of management methods;
- organizational and information support used in the management process for information processing;
‒ communications, which are determined by the agreed methods of interaction and established flows of management information;
‒ workflow developed to fulfill the tasks and responsibilities of management bodies.
All this set of elements and connections is created to achieve the goals of the organizational system as a whole, that is, to manage the state budget.
tax revenue- the amount of revenues from taxes and fees collected on the territory of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, including all types of taxes, taking into account their subsequent redistribution by levels of the budget system in accordance with the law. Tax revenues include those provided for by the tax legislation of the Russian Federation, federal, regional and local taxes and fees, as well as penalties and fines.
The organizational and economic mechanism of tax forecasting and planning in the state budget management system is a multi-level hierarchical system of the main interconnected elements (public authorities) and their typical groups (subjects, objects, principles, methods and tools for forecasting and planning tax revenues), and also the ways of their interaction, including integration and disintegration, during and under the influence of which the forecast of tax revenues is developed.
In modern conditions, when the problems of controlling the state budget deficit, choosing a reasonable financial policy and reducing the share of public sector in the economy, the governments of many developed countries, as well as regions and large cities, have significantly reformed the budget process. One such reform in many countries has been the transition to a multi-year financial plan.
In world planning practice, the budget is a plan for the financial activities of public authorities (on a country, region, individual municipality) for a certain period, presented in the form of an inventory of income and expenses. In almost all countries, the budget is prepared for the year. At the same time, over the past 30 years, in advanced economies, there has been an active process of transition to longer-term budget planning based on the formulation of financial and economic strategy development of the territory, mutual linkage of the annual budget with long-term financial plans and forecasts. To date, this practice has already become quite widespread throughout the world, essentially becoming a generally recognized standard in the field of public finance management.
Medium-term forecasts for a period of two to five years - are made primarily to predict financial deficits or lack of income. Based on certain assumptions, independent forecasts of income and expenses are made. If revenues are forecast to be insufficient to cover expenditures, steps can be taken to balance the budget. Medium-term forecasting also plays an important role in the development of policy decisions for a period longer than the current budget period (for example, the impact on the budget of the costs associated with the implementation of capital investment programs, borrowing, etc.). Thus, medium-term forecasts can help avoid crises in local finances, leading to the need for urgent measures to reduce spending and increase taxes at the local level.
The process of budget forecasting helps to improve the efficiency of the region's management. Compilation of medium and long-term forecasts forces the leaders of the territories to consider the long-term consequences of their decisions, not limited to the framework of one budget year.
In Austria, multi-year financial plan indicators are built separately, outside the preparation process annual budget. If before 1994 multi-year budget estimates in this country were built in order to predict the consequences of current fiscal decisions in a few years, now multi-year estimates have been transformed into a strategic financial plan. Thus, the Austrian approach simultaneously provides a system for early detection of undesirable consequences of current fiscal decisions, and provides a system of guidelines for the medium-term fiscal strategy of the state.
Germany builds a multi-year budget in the context of an integrated medium-term financial plan in order to achieve certain strategic fiscal policy goals.
In Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, the multi-year fiscal plan is used primarily as a means to increase transparency and efficiency in the allocation of budgetary resources, but the approaches used by these countries also allow for a medium-term fiscal strategy and ensure the stability and continuity of the budget process.
The UK, like Germany, also forms a multi-year spending plan. However, unlike Germany, it does not build a multi-year income plan. Although the revenue plan covers only one year, revenue projections are built for the entire four-year period that constitutes the multi-year budget horizon in this country. This allows the government to view both sides of the budget in a multi-year context. Based on the medium-term economic outlook and the government's fiscal strategy, the UK Treasury sets aggregate spending limits for a multi-year period (the coming year plus three more) and limits by ministry for the same period. Within these multi-year limits, line ministries develop their multi-year spending plans. These spending plans are "rolling". A year later, they are used as a starting point in the process of preparing the budget for the coming year, i.e. on their basis, they develop spending limits in the budget process of the next year.
The approach used in Canada is very close to that used in England. The Canadian government's "Expenditure Management System" promotes fiscal discipline and helps the federal government achieve its fiscal policy objectives. In the Canadian approach to multi-year budget planning, the Treasury Board determines the medium-term objectives of the fiscal strategy, as well as ministerial spending limits for the multi-year period. Within these limits, line ministries develop so-called “multi-annual business plans” covering a three-year period. Ministerial business plans in the Canadian approach specify the strategy of the relevant ministry or department, activities and expenditures for the coming period, and they also contain definitions of indicators by which the ministry intends to measure the results of the implementation of certain programs and their effectiveness (i.e. measure, how efficiently the funds are spent). Within the limits set by the Treasury Board, the ministries themselves determine their priorities and allocate resources in such a way as to ensure that the highest priority programs are funded. Ministries' business plans are included in the federal budget document.
Australia exemplifies the British Commonwealth approach to multiannual budgeting in that it uses an incremental approach to budgeting to encourage fiscal discipline, with line ministries responsible for developing fiscal initiatives (spending proposals). However, unlike in England and Canada, where multi-year spending limits are set and multi-year spending plans are developed, in Australia the “spending ceiling” (which is an updated version of last year's spending estimates) becomes the basis for developing incremental budget proposals for the coming year. For future years (beyond the coming year), Australia's multi-year spending estimates reflect future costs, assuming that all decisions budgeted for the coming year remain unchanged. The distribution of responsibilities among the participants in the budget process in Australia differs from the practice of other countries of the British Commonwealth. In Australia, expenditure estimates are prepared by the Treasury rather than line ministries, and these estimates are continually updated during the budget process.
New Zealand has been a supporter for several years budget reforms setting an example for other countries. For a number of years in New Zealand, budget execution was not all right. In 1994, in order to strengthen fiscal discipline and enhance the transparency of the budget adopted in this country, the law "On Fiscal Responsibility" was adopted. The peculiarity of this law is that it requires the central government to adhere to responsible budgeting practices, but does not imply the setting of any specific fiscal or budgetary goals (targets). Although the law does not provide for the setting of specific goals, it provides for extremely strict reporting requirements (submission of information). Even before the next year's budgeting process begins, the New Zealand Government submits a Fiscal Policy Statement to Parliament. This document formulates the government's fiscal plan for the coming year, as well as the objectives of the medium-term fiscal strategy. Simultaneously with the official submission of the budget to the parliament, another document is published - the regulation "On fiscal strategy". This document provides updated (refined) medium-term revenue and expenditure estimates and explains the reasons for the discrepancies (if any) between the proposed budget and the objectives and strategies formulated in the Budget Policy Regulation. New Zealand also periodically releases multi-year government fiscal and economic forecasts that are compared with similar forecasts made by independent (non-government) agencies. The New Zealand approach allows for a high level of transparency in the budget process, a strong focus on justifying decisions and a highly efficient allocation of budgetary resources.
An important component of the multi-year budget planning process is the ability to forecast revenues for the time period covered by the multi-year financial plan. The multi-year income forecast provides baseline information that can be used to judge the feasibility of spending plans given the medium-term objectives of public financial policy. Multi-annual income forecasts can also serve as an early warning system for impending income shortfalls, so having them in place is essential to enable timely review of strategies and tax reforms. For short-term income forecasting, econometric models can be used, in particular, time series models (single-factor) and multi-factor models that include one or more equations estimated simultaneously. The use of such models, which have well-studied statistical properties, makes it possible to have a reliable source of short-term (up to a year) income forecasts. Medium-term income forecasts are based on a medium-term macroeconomic model. Such forecasts, by their nature, tend to be less accurate than short-term forecasts.
There are four main methods of medium-term forecasting of budget revenues and expenditures. These methods differ from each other in complexity, the amount of initial data required, the time and money spent, the usefulness of the information obtained as a result of their use for choosing various policy options for local authorities. When choosing one or another forecasting method, one should proceed from the scale this region and the complexity of the financial problems it faces.
Methods for medium-term forecasting of budget revenues and expenditures are schematically presented in Figure 1.2.
Method efficiency expert forecasting is determined by the qualifications of the expert involved in the preparation of forecasts. Such forecasting does not require large expenses and can be quite accurate, however, expert assessments are subjective, depend on the “feelings” of the expert and are not always amenable to rational explanation.
Method of determination often used for cost forecasting. Unlike the trend method, which provides only one variable - time, the determination method takes into account other variables. Most often, a pre-designed formula is used to predict income and expenses. The cost forecast is obtained by multiplying the volume of costs by the unit price of these costs.
econometric forecasting based on the principles of economic theory and statistics. Being conceptually more complex than the above methods, econometric forecasting provides more valuable information. The most commonly used technique is statistical regression analysis. Econometric forecasting is increasingly being used to forecast earnings. It can also be used to forecast costs that are sensitive to changes. economic conditions.
Rice. 1.2. Medium-term forecasting methods for budget revenues and expenditures
Time series forecasts based on their own dynamics (trend method) assumes the dependence of some groups of income and expenses only on time. It assumes constant rates of change (constant growth rate) or constant absolute changes (linear time trend). Its essential shortcoming is ignoring economic and demographic conditions.
With regard to the comparative advantages and disadvantages of various medium-range forecasting methods, the advantage of the econometric method is its solid theoretical background, the ability to determine the statistical significance of the considered relationships between different variables, the simultaneous use of several independent variables. The main disadvantage of this method is its high cost.
There is no medium-range forecasting method that is equally suitable for forecasting all types of local revenues and expenditures.
The econometric method is most suitable for forecasting those local revenues that are particularly sensitive to changes in local economic conditions. Trend and expert forecasts are most suitable for forecasting those local revenues that are insensitive to local economic conditions or are so unstable that it is not possible to identify any causal relationships. For forecasting local costs, it is best to use the method of determination.
The level and structure of local government spending is determined both by economic and demographic factors, which are largely beyond the control of local governments, and by local policy choices. Even in conditions where the main influence on local spending comes from high level inflation, local authorities are left with some choice. They can - depending on their preferences and the preferences of voters - increase taxes or reduce the amount of services provided.
Factors affecting local government spending should be considered in the context of supply and demand. After all, the annual budget is nothing more than an attempt by local authorities to balance demand (the quantity and quality of public services that local residents want to receive) and supply (the quantity and quality of services that the local government can provide at a given level of local income).
Demand for local services is determined by four main factors: changes in the size of the population and its structure (due, for example, as a result of migration), the rate economic growth in the country, changes in the relative price of public services, shifts in the structure of incomes of local residents (as you know, with the growth of personal incomes of the population, the demand for local services increases even more). Under the influence of these factors, the demand for local goods and services changes, and, ultimately, the costs of local government.
The level of local government spending is also determined by supply-side factors. The price of providing various local services depends on local government spending on labor and capital costs, exploiting opportunities for economies of scale, indexation of social security costs and health insurance, from long-term capital costs, from the productivity of those employed in the provision of local services.
In addition to these supply and demand factors, external factors, such as a decline in production in a country or region, can also affect local spending.
For example, in the United States in the 70s and early 80s, the following five factors had a great influence on local finances: the state of the national economy, regional economic shifts, demographic changes, adopted in various states, legislative restrictions on the growth of local taxation, federal policy towards local governments (reduction of federal subsidies to states and local authorities since the early 80s had a negative impact on the revenue side of their budgets).
The most important requirement for income forecasting models is that they provide sufficiently accurate, consistent forecasts for the short to medium term. Short-term forecasts are usually referred to as those that look no more than a year ahead, so the models used for short-term forecasting must have an increased ability to capture high-frequency information contained in time series, while the structural parameters that determine the process of generating income are given, in short-term forecasting, usually less attention.
The main reason why it is necessary to develop statistically rigorous forecasting models is that as the economy moves from the previous system of central planning to market system, the power of expert analysis and deterministic forecasts will decrease.
Unlike the previous economic system, where prices, resource costs and results were all known, in the new market economy none of these economic parameters is known a priori. The more explicit the relationship between budget revenues, on the one hand, and the level of economic activity and the complex interaction between supply and demand, on the other hand, becomes, the ability to parameterize the process of generating budget revenues will weaken more and more. At the same time, the potential and scope of statistical methods will increase.
The basis of any empirical analysis is the accuracy of the source data. Given this, it seems logical to build statistical models using monthly income data from various sources. Data on monthly budget revenues can be obtained in a ready-made form from the accounting department of any financial authority, and these data are as reliable as possible, unlike other statistical data. In its original version, the short-term forecasting methodology relies mainly on two classes of models: time series models and econometric forecasting models. Both of these classes of models are based on the use of a statistical technique known as regression analysis.
Time series analysis methodology (single-factor models) uses the past values of a modeled variable to predict future values of the same variable. For example, a time series model might use monthly past receipts income tax and based on the past patterns in the behavior of this variable, it will predict the future values of receipts from this source. Thus, to use time series models, it is necessary to have only the past values of the predicted variable itself.
It is clear that the patterns of the past behavior of a variable can say a lot about how it will behave in the future. Time series analysis allows you to find such patterns and, on this basis, predict the future behavior of the variable. Shifts in the dynamics of time series associated with a change in the structure of the tax ( tax legislation) or with some other major reforms, can be taken into account in the model using a special statistical technique of the so-called "dummy" variable. The essence of predicting a variable based on its past dynamics can be formulated as follows. The value of budget revenues (in the present or future period) is somehow connected (correlated) with the past values of these revenues. If we can detect such a correlation and decompose it into its components, giving it structure, we can often make remarkably accurate predictions.
The second way to apply regression analysis to budget revenue forecasting is to evaluate econometric models. Econometric forecasting uses one or more explanatory variables (called "explanatory variables") to predict the behavior of the dependent variable, which in this case is government revenue. It is clear that knowing the dynamics of variables related to the tax base (for example, if we are talking about corporate income tax, wages, profits, interest rates can be used as variables related to the tax base), it is possible to predict the dynamics of tax revenues. . In econometric forecasting of tax revenues, it is often necessary to first forecast the explanatory variables using the same statistical methods, and only then to forecast the tax revenues themselves. For the same purpose, you can use the forecasts of explanatory variables built by other (external) organizations.
In most cases, it turns out that by combining econometric modeling methods with time series analysis, it is possible to achieve very good results and achieve high accuracy of forecasts. In such mixed models, the explanatory economic variables show the impact on the dependent (simulated) variable of changes in the tax base, and the variables drawn from the analysis of the time series itself allow to take into account the impact of other innovations in this time series. Such mixed models also typically use dummy variables that take into account the impact of major structural reforms in the tax system.
Medium-term forecasting models differ significantly from short-term models because medium-term models must be able to capture the relationship between financial policy (financial decisions) and macroeconomic conditions over the medium term. Medium-term models for revenue forecasting (2-4 years ahead) provide management with strategic information about available financial resources. Such forecasts are the first serious step towards creating the infrastructure for making informed decisions necessary to achieve the medium-term goals of the territorial Administrations.
It is possible to state when the object of the forecast is a separate type of income. Analysis causation carried out not in a generalized way, at the level total income, but differentiated by types of sources of income. Income detailing has the effect of increasing the explanatory power of the models.
This idea - increasing the completeness of the explanation of the behavior of income by deepening the detail of their structure - is not limited to the level of types of income. Each type of income can be divided into small components according to some significant value for it, which, in turn, can be divided into even smaller ones, etc.
But along with the increase in the number of equations and variables, the volume of all work related to the forecasting procedure increases. In this regard, another approach to the formation of the general structure of the model deserves attention.
The power of influence on the total income of its individual component is equal to the part that this component represents in the total income. It is known from practice that the parts of budget revenues by sources of income in total income, that is, parts of the components, as a rule, are significantly different. Therefore, the strength of their influence is equally different. Therefore, it is advisable to revise the structure of total income, namely, to leave its significant components as independent units, so that together they cover approximately 85-90% of all income, and combine the rest of the components into “other income”. At the same time, it is desirable that “other income” be the smallest component in the new structure in terms of size.
Such a technique makes it possible, without prejudice to explanatory possibilities, to reduce the number of equations, remove insignificant exogenous variables, and, finally, significantly reduce the amount of work on the forecasting procedure. When asked to forecast budget receipts by source of income, the forecast of income classified as "other" is made as usual - separately for each type of income.
In general, several different models can be used simultaneously. This makes it possible to cross-check the prediction.
The analysis of causal relationships aims to determine, from scientific economic positions, at a qualitative level, the range of factors that, according to the logic of economic relationships, can influence budget revenues. The subject of this analysis is the total income and components of the total income. The analysis should answer the question: on what indicators that characterize the state of the region's economy can the size of total income or certain of its components depend? What economic indicators can be considered as exogenous variables, whose impact on income should be tested?
The implementation of this part of the forecasting procedure is associated with overcoming certain difficulties. The problem is that in the economy, the operating factors are closely intertwined and in one way or another influence each other. There are a large number of factors that directly or indirectly affect the amount of income. Enrolling them all as exogenous variables for further processing would be unjustified. Therefore, it is necessary not only to determine the factors of influence as such, but also to distinguish significant ones between them, those that are subject to further processing.
It has been established that two groups of factors influence the size of budget revenues. The first group includes the number and types of taxes, the amount tax rates, the collection of tax payments, the crisis of payments, wage arrears, barter transactions, which together represent a mechanism for extracting part of the generated income to the budget. Budget revenues largely depend on the effective functioning of this mechanism, so it needs to be further improved.
The second group includes the size and efficiency of the use of factors of production, the volume of sales of products and services, the sectoral, cost and regional structure of the economy, the level of profitability of enterprises, inflation, and intensification of production. It is worth emphasizing that it is precisely this group of factors that has a decisive influence on budget revenues and reserves for their increase. At the same time, the formation of revenues is considered as two closely interdependent processes: on the one hand, the formation of revenues for budgets of all levels; on the other hand, the production of income in industries that produce goods and services, its distribution and use for the formation of revenues of the budget system, i.e. production - distribution - expenditures of income producers - incomes of budgets of different levels.
Forecasting future values of income is based on the fact that the general conditions that determined the dynamics of income over the period of time that is the basis for the obtained regression models will not receive major changes in the forecast period and the previous trend described by these models can be continued into the future (extrapolated). The forecast of income is carried out by substituting the values of independent variables into the regression equation, which determine the conditions for which the forecast is made.
2.2 Methods for planning and forecasting budget revenues of local governments
Forecasting and planning methods are expressed in methods and techniques for developing forecast and planning documents and indicators in relation to their various types and purposes.
The basis of the forecasting and planning methodology is the conduct of an analytical study, the preparation of a database, the study and combination of information into a single whole. The future becomes largely predictable if the current situation, factors and trends that contribute to its change in the future are correctly and fully taken into account. Without these prerequisites, forecasting turns into probabilistic fortune-telling.
To solve large complex problems, system analysis and synthesis. The national economy as a whole, its spheres, parts, branches, enterprises act as a system; budget, its income and expenses; the subsystems included in the system of a higher order are distinguished. The system assumes integrity, unity of its elements, which are interdependent and hierarchically subordinated. System analysis exposes problems more sharply and more directly and identifies ways to solve them. The effectiveness of system analysis is due to the fact that the whole is always greater than the sum of its parts.
The following stages of system analysis are distinguished: problem statement; definition of goals and evaluation criteria; structural analysis of factors, trends, their interaction; development of the concept and options for the development of the system. Factors are classified into:
related to the general economic situation in the country;
directly dependent on the activities of manufacturers;
formed under the influence of market relations and state regulation.
Each factor determines a downward, upward or stabilizing trend.
The analysis includes morphological, by analogy, regression, correlation, grouping, index calculation and other research methods. Morphological analysis makes it possible to obtain systematized information on all possible solutions to the problem and assumes complete and universal knowledge about the object. As a result of such an analysis, new information is generated, different combinations of parameters (their variants), alternative ways their achievements.
Forecasting by analogy is based on the laws of formal logic, logical constructions that establish inference schemes. Basic laws: consistency, exclusion of the third, double negation, etc.; logical constructions: “if, then”, “or”, “either”, “it is not true”, etc. Historical analogy is one of the most ancient forecasting methods.
Regression analysis involves the study of the dependences of a certain quantity on other quantities. It is used in forecasting complex multi-factorial objects in the medium and long term in the presence of indicators for a number of years.
Correlation (pair and multiple) establishes relationships between different indicators, trends, their mutual influence. Pair correlation characterizes the relationship between two, and multiple - between several indicators.
The analysis of the situation in the country is carried out using the most important and comprehensive macroeconomic indicators: gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, quality of life, employment, etc.
Gross domestic product serves as a backbone indicator, all other indicators reflect its changes. With a stable GDP growth, the country is not afraid of either a budget deficit or public debt. The economy degrades in the absence of growth, with a constant GDP, state loans are dangerous, since there will be nothing to repay the debts. This should be taken into account in socio-economic forecasting and planning.
The prospects for the operation of such factors as the demographic situation, the state of natural resources, national wealth, scientific and technical potential, the social structure of society, and the external position of the country are also analyzed. A comprehensive analysis of the state of each industry in relation to the general socio-economic situation in the country and region is carried out, stable trends and factors influencing their directions are identified.
The forecast is built on the basis of initial data and assumptions about the future. Its quality is determined by the reliability of information and the validity of upcoming changes in the direction of factors and trends. The initial data must contain facts and statements that are irrefutable from the position of today. Justifying assumptions about the future is the most difficult stage of forecasting. In market conditions, assumptions are not certain and unambiguous.
In order to anticipate possible options and assess the future situation as a whole, appropriate forecasting methods are used.
The extrapolation method is used for the stability of the system, the stability of phenomena, when the dynamics of processes and indicators in the future is determined by the trends in their change in the past period. It is assumed that development proceeds continuously, smoothly, the forces of the past are able to control the future. The forecast becomes a projection of the past into the future.
The future reproduces the past only in cases where there are no factors in the forecast period, the influence of which will change the nature of the trends of past years. Therefore, it is necessary to have information about the stability of trends for a period 2-3 times longer than the forecast period.
An important element of extrapolation is the analysis of time series, the processing of a retrospective series. The time series contains changing, time-ordered indicators and characteristics. The result largely depends on the period for which the series was built, how many years the observation was carried out.
Time series processing includes smoothing and leveling, search for coefficients that minimize deviations. Apply the methods of moving average and exponential smoothing.
The moving average method assumes that the next indicator in time is equal in value to the average for the last months (years), for example, the average for the last 3 months. The forecast for exponential smoothing is defined as the sum of actual and forecast data for the period, weighted using special coefficients determined statistically.
Forecasting and planning in taxation as a single adaptive process for assessing tax potential.
Forecasting is becoming an integral element in the study and use of the entire system of social relations, starting with the functioning of economic entities and ending with society on a global scale. Any component of economic life is in dire need of deep, multi-variant forecasts of its development. These include tax systems.
The classical set of management functions in management theory involves forecasting, goal setting with the formation of a strategy to achieve them, planning, decision making, monitoring, analysis and evaluation of results (when evaluation is introduced as new information into the process of adjusting forecasts, the feedback loop closes and the next cycle begins).
In the abstract model, forecasting precedes planning, but in forecasting tax revenues of the budget, all functions are intertwined and are carried out simultaneously. Therefore, it is legitimate to consider tax forecasting and tax planning as a single adaptive process, within which there is a regular (within a given frequency) adjustment of decisions drawn up as indicators, a revision of measures to achieve them based on continuous control and monitoring of ongoing changes.
Tax forecasting is an assessment of the tax potential and receipts of taxes and fees to the budget system (consolidated, federal and territorial budgets) and is based on socio-economic forecasting of the development of the Russian Federation as a whole and its constituent entities. Tax forecasting includes determining the tax bases for each tax and fee, monitoring the dynamics of their receipts over several periods, calculating the levels of collection of taxes and fees, the volume of shortfalls in income, the state of tax debts, assessing the results of applying tax laws, etc.
Depending on the goals set, tax planning can be carried out in various ways. However, all calculations must take into account the following components:
Background income level;
The seasonal component of their changes;
Event component (for example, options for the development of the political situation, changes in tax legislation);
The residual component, including possible unaccounted for factors.
Forecasting tax revenues of the budget is a forecasting of the development of a complex socio-economic system, which requires a set of consistent and simultaneously implemented interacting measures to solve the problems of a reasonable calculation of the amount of tax revenues to the budget of the appropriate level for a given period. To solve these problems, it is most effective to use econometric methods. One of the most important of them is econometric modeling method . The econometric model (ECM) can have various modifications.
An EKM can consist of a single regression equation with a single factor. For example,
where: A0 - free member;
A1 - regression coefficient.
EKM can consist of one regression equation with several factors, i.e. multifactorial equation. For example,
Y \u003d A0 + A1X1 + A2X2 + . . . + AnXn
where: n is the number of factors.
EKM can consist of several equations of the two above types. These equations are called simultaneous because they form a system of equations. At the same time, they can be interconnected, i.e. the resulting variables of the first equation of the system are used as factors to find the resulting variables of subsequent equations. The equations of the system may be independent of one another. In this case, each equation of the system is solved independently, independently of other equations.
In this ECM, the variables on the left side of the equation (Y) are modeled within this ECM, and the variables on the right side of the equation (X1 ; X2 ; Xn) can be predicted outside this ECM (within another model, statistical or expert methods ).
Econometric methods are used for medium-term forecasting in conditions of unstable economic environment depending on the influence of various factors. At the same time, the effectiveness of these methods increases as the stability of the economic system increases and the tendencies of its development stabilize.
The disadvantage of econometric methods is the increased complexity and high cost of implementation, and the advantage is the ability to predict budget indicators that are most sensitive to changes in economic conditions.
Trend extrapolation method used for short-term forecasting of budget indicators. A trend model is a mathematical model that describes the change in the predicted indicator only depending on time and has the form
This is one of the passive forecasting methods, since it assumes a strict inertia of development, which is presented as a projection of past trends into the future and independence of development indicators from any factors other than time.
It is the ignoring of economic and demographic conditions that affect the change in tax revenues of the budget in the future and is the main drawback of this method. The advantage is that the trend method is the simplest forecasting tool.
The basis for applying this method is information on the receipt of specific taxes and fees for certain periods of previous years, on the volume of shortfall in income, the state of tax debts, analysis of trends in the development of the tax base, the structure of taxpayers, etc. At the same time, in the planning method, the relevant indicators should be brought into comparable conditions. It is especially important to correctly assess the amount of additional revenues from taxes and fees and lost income as a result of certain changes in tax legislation.
Deterministic Methods represent the establishment of the dependence of the predicted indicator on certain factors that dominate among others, affecting the change in the predicted indicator, as a result of which, when applying these methods, uncertainty factors of a random nature are not taken into account.
Among the deterministic methods, the most common are: conditional method of forecasting tax revenues and the method of "tax calculator" .
Conditional Method is used to obtain forecast values of aggregate revenues and is based on obtaining estimates of the elasticity of tax revenues with respect to the tax base. Exists two types conditional forecasting methods: statistical and dynamic models for forecasting tax revenues.
Statistical models for forecasting tax revenues are focused on taking into account the direct effects of the impact on the tax base, in particular, changes in the structure of taxes. To make forecasts using statistical models, data on tax revenues and tax bases for each of the taxes considered are needed. This data already reflects that part of the change in tax revenues that was caused by the corresponding changes in total income or expenditure and that was due to changes in tax legislation and tax administration. The differentiation of these effects is decisive for statistical models of forecasting tax revenues. These effects can be separated in various ways.
Thus, one of the approaches is based on the construction of corrected time s x series of tax revenues, taking into account changes in tax legislation and tax administration that have arisen throughout the about m interval. With this approach, to build adjusted tax bases, only information on the volume of taxes and fees received is needed. These adjusted tax revenues will generally change only with changes in the amount of taxable income (or expenses), since the taxation system remains unchanged in the study period.
Estimation of the elasticity of tax revenues with respect to the tax base for any t- of the periods under consideration is carried out according to the formula:
et = [(NP"t - NP"t -1) : (NBt - NBt -1)] * (NBt: NP"t)
where: t = 2, . . . n.
NP "t \u003d NPt *
where: NPt and NPt+1 are tax revenues in t-volume and (t+1)-th periods, where t = 1, 2, . . . n;
NP "t - the volume of adjusted tax revenues in the t-th period, where t \u003d 1, 2, . . . n-1;
NBt and NBt-1 - tax bases for the corresponding tax in the t-th and (t - 1)-th periods, where t = 1, 2, . . . n;
NP^t+1 is the volume of tax revenues as a result of changes in tax legislation and tax administration in the (t+1)-th period, where t = 1, 2, . . . n.
Under elasticity refers to the percentage change in tax revenues, provided that there have been no changes in tax legislation and tax administration.
Along with elasticity is calculated flexibility tax revenue, which refers to the percentage change in tax revenue as a result of a one percent change tax base regardless of what caused it. Flexibility is calculated in a similar way to the elasticity of tax revenues.
With the help of dynamic models, not only the direct effect of the impact of the tax base on the volume of revenues is taken into account, but also indirect effects, such as the reaction of the tax base to changes in the structure of the tax system, etc. Dynamic models consider the expected response of economic sectors to changes in tax legislation. Because of this, tax bases are not fixed when forecasting tax revenues, and they reflect changes in the tax system.
Tax calculator method as one of the methods of a deterministic approach to building a forecast of tax revenues, it is used when a database with tax reporting of taxpayers is available. It is especially common when modeling personal income tax and corporate income tax. When building tax calculators, one usually uses typical taxpayer model and aggregation model.
Application typical taxpayer models involves, firstly, the search for a typical representative for each grouping category; Secondly, on the basis of individual tax return calculation of current tax liabilities. This model allows us to consider the impact of changes in tax legislation on various categories of taxpayers.
By using aggregation models possible if there is an individual base tax reporting for several years, the values of economic growth rates and the deflator to predict the total tax revenues. The application of this model involves, firstly, the breakdown of taxpayers into several groups, each of which is assigned a certain weight; secondly, the calculation of tax liabilities separately for each taxpayer; thirdly, building a forecast of tax revenues for the next period based on the values of economic growth rates and the calculation of individual tax liabilities for groups of taxpayers.
Deterministic methods are used for short-term forecasting of budget tax revenues and medium-term planning in a relatively stable and predictable economic environment. The advantage of these methods is simplicity, information flexibility and sufficient accuracy of forecasts for a certain category of indicators. The main disadvantage is the impossibility of predicting complex phenomena.
Deterministic methods assume the established dependence of the predicted value on known variables. These methods can also be called index methods, since they involve the widespread use of a system of various macroeconomic deflator indices when forecasting tax revenues. Due to their simplicity and information flexibility, these are the most relevant methods for forecasting the budgets of territories and obtaining forecast values of aggregate revenues. However, these methods imply the rejection of forecasting such complex phenomena as tax benefits, tax debts, the size of the tax base, etc. To take into account the impact of various changes in tax and budget legislation on tax revenues, correction factors are introduced.
Methods of expert assessments- these are forecasting methods that use as a source of information the processed judgments of experts obtained during special consultations.
These methods are used for short- and medium-term budget forecasting and planning in the following cases:
Absence or insufficient amount of statistical data about the object;
If the forecasting object is extremely difficult to formalize, large-scale, or the lead time of the forecast is large enough;
If the uncertainty factor associated with the future state of the forecast background is large enough;
Acute shortage of time to develop a forecast due to an extreme situation.
Expert assessment methods are usually used in combination with other methods and are most effective in a relatively stable economic environment.
The disadvantages of these methods are considered to be subjective nature and dependence on the qualifications of experts, while the advantages are low cost and sufficient accuracy of forecasts with the appropriate competence of experts.
The increase in the reliability of expert forecasts and estimates is facilitated by the involvement of highly qualified experts in solving non-standard problems, for example, those associated with forecasting in unstable conditions, who are able to assess hidden factors and the possibility of new trends.
Assessment of the level of competence of experts can be carried out in the following areas:
By the frequency of citation or the number of publications of the expert;
According to the results of the evaluation of previously made forecasts;
According to the results of self-assessment and mutual assessment;
According to the results of the control examination.
In general, with the involvement of experts of appropriate qualifications, the methods of expert assessments provide the possibility of analyzing and forecasting the development of an object that does not have a history, as well as predicting qualitative (jump-like) changes. These methods are widely used in forecasting tax revenues of the budget to monitor the dynamics of taxes and fees for several periods, identify the volume of shortfalls in income, assess the state of tax debts as a result of changes in legislation, etc.
Method of mathematical modeling- the most complex method of forecasting, consisting of a variety of approaches to forecasting complex systems, processes and phenomena. Mathematical modeling of the process of receipt of tax revenues of the budget is to build an integrated model of the economy that takes into account economic ties between the most important groups of economic entities.
The modeling method is based on the use of economic and mathematical models and the corresponding software product, it allows considering both optimistic and pessimistic forecasts in the economy and tax forecasting. In modern automated systems a number of macro and micro subsystems are used economic analysis, a number of subsystems for forecasting and planning tax payments.
The main types of modeling are:
Functional-hierarchical modeling;
Network modeling;
Matrix Modeling.
This method is used for medium- and long-term forecasting of budget tax revenues in the face of uncertainty about the future development of the economy. The advantage of this method is the consideration of many interrelated factors and the possibility of developing several options for the development of the economy. The disadvantages are the increased complexity and high cost of implementation, as well as the need a large number initial statistics.
It should be noted that regardless of the method used, the initial component of tax forecasting and planning is the determination of the tax base for each type of tax at the federal level and in the regional context. Regional tax planning, in turn, is based on the results of the analysis of the fulfillment of current tax obligations and the forecast of the macroeconomic situation in the regions.
Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Federal Agency for Education
State educational institution
Higher professional education
Izhevsk State Technical University
Department of Finance and Credit
coursework
in the discipline "Financial planning and forecasting"
on the topic: "Methods of financial planning and forecasting"
Option 24
Completed by: student of group 4-52-1
Smirnova V.V.
Checked by: Ph.D., Associate Professor
Zemtsova N.V.
Izhevsk 2009
Introduction
1.Planning and forecasting federal budget revenues
1.1. Essence of the state budget. State budget revenues.
In modern economic literature and periodicals, issues devoted to individual problems of budgeting and execution, most often related to taxes, as the basis of the budget revenue base, are widely discussed.
The state budget is the most important planning and control instrument, through which the state redistributes more than a third of the national income and more than half of its Money. Through the state budget, the government implements economic and social, domestic and foreign policy. The size of the state budget, the composition and ratio of its revenues and expenditures depend on the implementation of economic and social development, the stability of the social situation of the country. It can influence economic activity, investment policy, improvement of the structure of the economy, the development of priority sectors and the social sphere.
The central indicator of the state budget is the amount of its revenues. The amount of income determines the state's expenditures on the development of the economy, the rate of economic growth and the level of welfare of the country. Comparison of state budget revenues with its expenditures makes it possible to determine the amount and level of the deficit. Such a role of state budget revenues in the life of society and the state necessitates the improvement of the methodology for their formation and forecasting the development of new approaches in this direction. The purpose of this course work is to acquire theoretical and practical skills in the field of financial planning and forecasting, in particular to study the methodology of financial planning of state budget revenues, and to gain practical skills in the field of enterprise planning using the budgeting method and forecasting using the method of proportional dependencies.
To achieve this goal, it is necessary to perform the following tasks:
· study the concept of budget revenues, budget planning and forecasting;
· to study the methodology of income planning;
· consider a debatable issue in the field of planning and forecasting budget revenues;
· planning of activity of the enterprise by a method of budgeting;
· Forecasting by the method of proportional dependencies.
The object of research in term paper is an enterprise JSC "Leader". Planning and forecasting is carried out on the basis of available information about the activities of the enterprise, on the basis of the existing accounting and financial reporting. Planning the activities of the enterprise according to the method of budgeting is carried out for a period of 1 year, forecasting according to the method of proportional dependencies is made for another year. In total, the activity of the enterprise is planned for the next two years.
1. Planning and forecasting of federal budget revenues.
1.1. Essence of the state budget. Budget revenues
Central to the system public finance occupies the state budget – the financial plan of the state having the force of law for the current financial year. The Budget Code of the Russian Federation defines the budget as "a form of formation and spending of a fund of funds intended for financial support of the tasks and functions of the state and local government" .
The state budget consists of 2 complementary interconnected parts: revenue and expenditure. The revenue part shows where the funds come from to finance the activities of the state, which sections of society deduct more from their income. The structure of income is not constant and depends on the specific economic conditions of the country's development, market conditions and ongoing economic policy. Any change in the structure of budget revenues reflects changes in economic processes. The expenditure part shows for what purposes the funds accumulated by the state are directed. It should be noted that the budget, as a fund of funds, never exists in its entirety; as incomes are received, they are used to cover expenses. It is only a plan for the formation and use of a nationwide fund of funds, that is, a list of state revenues and expenditures, agreed with each other, both in terms of volume and timing of receipt and use.
Budget revenues- funds received free of charge and irrevocably in accordance with the current classification and existing legislation. In the process of formation of budget revenues, there is a forced withdrawal in favor of the state of a part of the GDP created in the process of social reproduction. On this basis, there are financial relationships between the state and taxpayers.
Budget revenues have significant differences in their payers, objects of taxation, methods of withdrawal, terms of payment, etc. But at the same time, they are distinguished by unity, because pursue one goal - the formation of the revenue side of the budgets of different levels. They are characterized by a monetary form and impersonality.
Budget revenues can be tax and non-tax nature. The revenue part of the budget is formed mainly from taxes. VAT occupies the leading place among the tax revenues of the federal budget. Together with customs duties and income tax, it exceeds 2/3 of tax revenues. Also, a significant share of revenue comes from excise taxes and user fees. natural resources, tax on the purchase of foreign banknotes. Non-tax budget revenues are formed as a result of either economic activity the state itself, or the redistribution of income already received by the levels of the budget system. Among the non-tax revenues of the federal budget, one can single out income from the sale of property located in state property, income from the sale of state reserves and from foreign economic activity, as well as income from property owned by the federal government, incl. profit of the Central Bank of Russia. In addition, funds from target budget funds are taken into account in federal budget revenues. Taxes received by the relevant budgets are called fixed income.
The content of budget planning also includes issues of theory and methodology of budgeting and other financial plans. Budget planning includes not only budgeting for all parts of the budget system, but also its execution. Such a definition of budget planning follows from the very definition of the budget given in the Law
“On the fundamentals of the budget structure and the budget process in the RSFSR.
The direct preparation of the budget for the coming year takes place on the basis of its execution for the current year and those financial norms and standards that are communicated to the territories, sectors of the economy, budget institutions.
Revenue budgeting should take into account the current tax system in the country, a real opportunity to mobilize revenues for each type of taxes and fees.
With the help of budget planning, the movement of budget funds is determined in accordance with the goals and objectives established in the Budget Address of the President of the Russian Federation, the main directions of the country's socio-economic development and forecast calculations for the respective territories, budget planning is designed to show real allowable costs and justify a strategy for solving priority sectoral, regional and municipal tasks. Budget planning includes: determination of the total volume and sources of budgetary funds at the federal, regional, and municipal levels; formation of budget expenditures based on unified methodology calculation of the minimum budgetary security, norms and standards of financial costs for the provision of state and municipal services; establishing directions for the use of budgetary funds that contribute to the implementation of forecast plans for the socio-economic development of the country and lead to an increase in the efficiency of societies, production, saving material, labor and financial resources. Budget planning links macroeconomic revenue projections to government spending proposals.
Before budget planning, the following main tasks
:
- establishment of the total amount of financial resources and their distribution in certain areas, national-state and administrative entities of the Russian Federation, identification of the size of the direction of the economy's own resources;
- organization of work to mobilize cash savings and other financial resources of the state, financial support development of the economy, science and social sphere;
Implementation financial control over the implementation of the budget.
Principles budget planning:
Regulation budgetary matters unified legal norms;
Address and targeted nature of the direction of budget funds;
Continuity of annual budget planning;
Stability financial indicators(norms, tax rates, estimates); balance method.
In the context of the transfer of the Russian economy to a market economy, the content, methodology and methods of budget planning have changed significantly. Quantitative benchmarks used in budget planning have changed from directive to indicative (recommendatory); it became possible to use other indicators instead of gross cost indicators, aimed at the final qualitative and quantitative results; there was a need to use different options for predictive calculations; great importance was given to the choice of optimal solutions.
The most common budget planning methods are methods: economic analysis; extrapolation; mathematical modeling; index, balance, etc.
Budget planning is carried out in several stages: drafting budgets by financial authorities of different levels; consideration of draft budgets in the executive authorities; consideration of draft budgets and approval of budgets in legislative (representative) bodies of state power at different levels and in local governments; quarterly distribution by the financial authorities of the federal, regional and municipal levels of income and expenditure, as well as the preparation of consolidated budget lists.
Budget planning consists of two stages: preparatory (consolidated budget planning, organizational and methodological measures are being taken, the expected budget execution for the current year is determined, norms and standards are being developed, the main directions, ways and means of mobilizing financial resources are being determined, opportunities are being sought to link planned revenues and expenses for the coming year, etc.) and specifically targeted (the types and amounts of revenue receipts are planned, specific directions for spending budgetary funds by sectors, departments and intended purpose) are established. At the second stage, revenues to the budget for each type of taxes and fees are determined. All further organization and methodological work on drafting budgets of different levels is also carried out by the relevant financial authorities.
Budget planning is directed, ultimately, to the drafting of the budget. All bodies of state power and administration take part in the preparation and execution of the budget. Budget planning is directly carried out by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the ministries of finance of the republics within the Russian Federation, and the financial departments of the administrations of other territories in accordance with the rights granted to them.
Reasonable, based on real calculations, assumption about the directions of budget development, possible states of its income and expenses in the future, ways and timing of achieving these states; an integral part of the budget process, the basis of budget planning. The forecast is based on a careful study of information about the state of the budget at the moment; determining, in accordance with the identified patterns, different options for achieving the expected budget indicators; finding, as a result of the analysis, the best option for the development of budgetary relations.
Budget forecasting focuses on finding the optimal solution to problems, on choosing the best of options. In the process of budget forecasting, various options for the budget policy of the state, different concepts of budget development are considered, taking into account a variety of economic and social, objective and subjective factors operating at the federal, regional and local levels. Unlike financial planning, which is carried out, as a rule, for a longer period, budget forecasting is targeted and is designed for a budget period, that is, no more than a year.
Two approaches are used to make forecasts: genetic and normative-target.
With a genetic approach forecasting is carried out from the present to the future on the basis of establishing causal relationships; at normative target the future goal and guidelines for moving towards it according to the standards are determined, possible events and measures that need to be taken to achieve the desired result in the future are investigated.
When developing a budget development forecast, various methods can be used. Different authors distinguish different groups of methods or only some specific methods. 1) The method of extrapolation, i.e., drawing up a perspective based on the practice of previous periods. However, this method is suitable for forecasting only certain items of budget expenditures and revenues that are more or less stable.
2) The method of expert assessments, i.e., a forecast based on assessments made and substantiated by competent specialists in certain branches of science and the national economy, is also not without drawbacks, since it has an element of subjectivity. 3) Application of these two methods at the same time; at the same time, both objective development trends and expert opinions are used.
I.M. Aleksandrov highlights more methods budget forecasting: mathematical modeling; index; normative; expert assessments; balance, etc. The method of mathematical modeling, based on the use of economic and mathematical models, allows you to take into account many interrelated factors that affect budget indicators, and choose from several options for the draft budget the most appropriate one corresponding to the accepted concept of the country's socio-economic development and the ongoing budget policy.
At index method various indices are used to reflect the dynamics of prices, standard of living, real income population, etc.
The instruments of the normative method are progressive norms and financial and budgetary norms, which are necessary for calculating budget revenues on the basis of established tax rates and taking into account certain macroeconomic guidelines.
The method of expert assessments is resorted to when the patterns of development of certain economic processes have not yet been identified, there are no analogues, and it is necessary to use specially performed calculations by top-class experts.
The balance method, in which comparisons are made (assets with liabilities, the whole with its parts, etc.), allows you to link the costs of any budget with its income, to identify the proportions in the distribution of funds between budgets.
Budget forecasting comes down to calculating probable budget revenues, determining the volumes and directions of spending budget funds, and establishing possible changes in interbudgetary relations.
In the course of forecasting budget revenues, the following tasks are solved: the amount of financial resources in the country is calculated; the level and size of their possible centralization at the disposal of the state and local self-government are determined; the most effective forms and methods of withdrawing funds to the budget are identified; explores the possibility of influencing through the taxation system on the development of production and services, the introduction of new technologies, etc.; the optimal proportions of income distribution between the budgets of different levels (federal, regional, local) are determined.
1.4. Methodology for budget revenue planning.
Income planning – essential element tax and budget policy of the state, in the process of which the relevant government bodies make decisions on amending tax legislation, reducing the share of public spending; develop measures to improve the general economic situation in the country and create the necessary conditions for the development of the economy.
Budget revenue planning is a formalized sequence of actions of all branches of government related to the development of forecast data on the collection of tax and non-tax payments, their consideration, approval and distribution by levels of the budget system, that is, it covers the scope of revenue planning on the scale of the federal, regional and local budgets.
The work on income planning includes three major areas:
1) Calculation of the projected amounts of mobilization of contingents of all types of income.
2) Distribution of regulatory revenues by levels of the budget system.
3) Determining the relationship between the budgets of various levels in terms of granting subventions, subsidies.
Planning methodology is a set of research methods for the purpose of cognition and transformation of reality. Planning methodology includes logic, methods and principles. However, the planning methodology is based on both general and specific economic laws reproduction of the social product. The main principles of budget planning are the continuity of planning the annual budget, the balance method, unity legal regulation, the principle of highlighting the leading link, the principle of scientificity, marginality, etc.
For budget planning, and in particular budget revenue planning, mainly interscientific planning methods are used, in particular the extrapolation method and the method of expert assessments. The extrapolation method involves drawing up a perspective based on the practice of previous periods. The method of expert assessments is a forecast based on assessments made and substantiated by competent specialists. The use of these two methods at the same time allows you to create a more realistic picture when determining one or another predicted indicator.
The income planning methodology is not legally established and therefore there are no uniform methods and principles of planning. However, the public authorities responsible for drafting the budget apply general principles and planning methods.
Income planning is carried out in accordance with the forecast of the most important macroeconomic and socio-economic indicators, such as:
· gross domestic product;
· gross national product;
net national product
The national income
· population;
· personal income population and so on.
Each of these indicators serves as the basis for calculating both the total amount of budget revenues and individual groups, types of taxes and other non-tax revenues to the budgets.
1.5. Planning and forecasting income in the interpretation of various authors.
| The budget system of Russia: a textbook for university students studying in economic specialties / Ed. G.B. Polyaka - 2nd ed., revised. and additional – M.: UNITY-DANA, 2009. | Planning of tax incomes. Tax revenue planning is a sequence of actions of all branches of government related to the development of forecast data on the collection of tax payments. Depending on the level of the economic entity, tax planning is divided into two levels: tax planning at the macro level; · tax planning at the level of an economic entity or organization. Tax planning at the macro level. Covers the scope of planning on the scale of the federal, regional and local budgets. The main task of tax planning at this level is to determine for a given time period an economically justified amount of tax revenues to the corresponding link in the budget system. There are current (operational, short-term) and prospective (medium-term, long-term) tax planning. Operational planning, carried out for a month or a quarter, is designed to provide a realistic assessment of tax receipts in the near future. Short-term tax planning serves as the basis for drawing up the budgets of the respective levels of government for the next year. During current planning, the sizes of both the total set of taxes and their individual types are analyzed in detail and determined. In long-term planning, there is no division by type of tax, it covers the totality of all taxes. Both current and long-term planning are simultaneously based on the forecast of the country's socio-economic development for the corresponding period of time and serve as the basis for determining the main characteristics of this forecast. In general, the tax planning process can be represented as the following scheme of actions: 1. goals are set to achieve which the taxation system is oriented; 2. methods and specific measures for the implementation of the goals are developed; 3. tax powers and revenue sources are delimited between authorities and administrations of various levels; 4. an assessment is given of the dynamics of tax receipts for previous periods in comparable conditions, taking into account changes in tax legislation; 5. the level of collection and debt for each tax is analyzed; 6. an assessment is made of the proposed changes in tax legislation; the tax base is determined for each tax, taking into account the forecast of the socio-economic development of the country and individual industries. The planning of non-tax budget revenues is based on new order– the functions of forecasting these revenues are assigned to revenue administrators. In accordance with the order of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation (No. 114 of December 10, 2004), within the framework of the budget process, administrators of budget revenues monitor, control, analyze and forecast receipts from the relevant source of income and submit projections of revenues for the next financial year to the relevant financial authorities . The revenue administrator is a new concept in financial and budget planning and forecasting of the Russian Federation. Currently, non-tax revenues are forecast by revenue administrators based on data from previous periods (extrapolation method), taking into account the planned changes in legislation, as well as the pace of economic and social development. As part of the non-tax revenues of the federal budget, the largest share is occupied by revenues received by the state from foreign economic activity, the main share in these revenues falls on customs duties. When planning income from foreign economic activity, customs duties and others from foreign economic activity are forecasted separately. Customs duties are planned according to the following formula: Sitog \u003d Item (1) + Item (2) + ... + Item (T), where Sitog - customs duties, fees and other payments, fully transferred to the federal budget; Item - total amount customs payments transferred to the federal budget by one customs point; T - the number of customs points that carry out this species activities on the territory of the Russian Federation. Income from foreign economic activity is planned according to the formula: FEA=SS(1)+SS(2)+…+SS(N), where N is the number of transactions made by the state during foreign economic sphere with the receipt of funds and their transfer to the budget; CC - the amount of funds received by the state from one transaction. Calculation of other non-tax income. Income from the use of property in state and municipal ownership, and income from the provision of paid services, and cost compensation occupy the largest share in the composition of non-tax revenues of the federal budget, as well as in the structure of non-tax revenues of the budgets of the subjects of the Federation and local authorities. |
| Budget planning and forecasting: a textbook for university students studying in economic specialties / Miroshkin N.P., Botkin O.I. – Izhevsk [Yekaterinburg ],2007 | The system of state and municipal revenues together forms budget revenues. AT modern science of financial law, for the purposes of a deeper study of the category under consideration, it is customary to classify budget revenues for a variety of reasons. One of the main ones in this case is the classification of types of income allocated depending on the form of their formation. When using this division, three types of budget revenues are distinguished:
Tax planning is one of the main components of financial planning. Its main task is a preliminary calculation of options for the amounts of direct and indirect taxes. The Budget Code of the Russian Federation defines the unity of the budget system, that is, there must be general order calculation of forecast indicators throughout the country, providing a unified mechanism for determining the profitable opportunities for both subjects of the Federation and municipalities. This approach to reforming interbudgetary relations made it possible to move on to formalized rules for the distribution of financial assistance between the subjects of the Federation. The proposed methodology is based on the use of indicators that objectively measure the income opportunities of subjects, municipalities on the basis of tax bases. The process of tax potential formation includes the following blocks:
Block normative - legislative includes a set of key parameters of tax legislation, reflecting the formation of the taxable base and reflecting the tax burden. At the same time, the normative block is differentiated according to the levels of budgets. Second block - includes the parameters of economic development of the real sector of the economy, which form the tax base and reflect the tax burden in general and by sectors of the economy. Third block - changes in the tax deductions to different levels of budgets that are taking place in the budgetary and tax legislation. Based on the structure of the tax potential of the factors influencing its formation, as well as the requirements and possibilities of the current legislation, the basis for calculating the tax potential is: · indicators of tax bases and tax rates in accordance with the current legislation; · forecast indicators of socio-economic development of the respective territories; indices - deflators (indices consumer prices); An indicator of the level of collection of taxes and fees; An indicator of the level of arrears and overpayments of taxes and fees. |
| Finance and Credit, No. 8, 2008 | Justification of forecasting tax revenues is one of the urgent tasks in the formation of the draft budget. To predict the amount of tax revenues for the next year, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation uses the following scheme: the nominal value of GDP for the next year is predicted and, based on GDP (or taking into account the trend), the expected nominal value of revenues is found. This method has an error in the forecast of nominal GDP and includes an error in the expected annual inflation rate, and the share of individual taxes in GDP varies significantly. That is, the relative error given forecast equals the sum of the relative errors of its components, so its value can reach significant values. Inflation rates significantly affect the amount of tax revenues. Hence, it makes sense to analyze not only the dynamics of nominal, but also real revenues. The calculation methods used by the Ministry of Finance do not provide sufficient accuracy of forecast indicators, and also make it impossible to quantify the error in forecast values and, accordingly, the degree of risk of the proposed forecasts. |
In my opinion, the problem of planning state budget revenues is of particular relevance and importance. Since the budget is the most important instrument through which the state distributes national income and money; and income is its central indicator. The amount of expenses depends on the amount of income. State budget revenues play an important role in the state economy, and the problem of their planning should take one of the central places, since there is no specific methodology, different authors offer different methods of income planning. From the article of the journal "Finance and Credit" (No. 8, 2008) it is clear that the methodology currently used by the Ministry of Finance has large errors, because not only nominal GDP changes, but also the inflation rate and the share of individual tax revenues in the budget. So why plan budget revenues with a large error, if the authors offer much more accurate methods.
2. Planning the activities of the enterprise according to the method of budgeting.
Table 1.1
The financial and economic situation of the enterprise JSC "Leader" in reporting year presented in table. 1.2.
The initial data for forecasting are given in Table. 1.3 - 1.7. It is assumed that the company produces two types of products: "A" and "B". Technological process production of each type of product consists of two sets of technological operations for the preparatory and machine shops of the enterprise.
Two basic materials are used in production: X and Y. Material X is used to produce product A, and material Y is used to produce product B.
In the budgeting process, information on the conditions for the formation of reserves will be needed finished products. Assume that the stocks of finished products at the end of the forecast period at the enterprise JSC "Leader" should be at the level of 50% of the expected sale in the next quarter.
It is known that receipts of sales proceeds usually do not correspond to the shipping period. Accept in the forecast period the following conditions for the receipt of sales proceeds: 50% of sales are paid in the sales quarter, 50% - in the next quarter.
For motion prediction cash flows for the enterprise to accept the following information on payment of cash costs:
1. Production labor, basic production materials and variable overheads are paid monthly;
2. Fixed overheads and selling and administrative expenses are paid quarterly in equal amounts;
3. Taxes payable are N n P t -1 million rubles. and will be paid in equal amounts quarterly during the year;
4. Capital investments are paid quarterly;
5. Accounts payable in this task in the forecast period, K3P t -1 million rubles remains unchanged.
Make a financial forecast for the coming year (t) broken down by quarters.
Table 1.1 Opening balance sheet of JSC "Leader", mln. rub.
| Index | At the end of the year | ||
| ASSETS | |||
| 1. | Fixed assets and others fixed assets- Total,including: |
770 | |
| 1.1. | Equipment and machinery (according to book value) | 875 | |
| 1.2. | Depreciation | 105 | |
| 2. | Current assets - total, including: |
115,5 | |
| 2.1. | Stocks of finished goods | 21,09 | |
| 2.2. | Stocks of raw materials and materials | 5,77 | |
| 2.3. | Accounts receivable | 70 | |
| 2.4. | Cash | 18,64 | |
| Balance | 885,5 | ||
| LIABILITY | |||
| 1. | Sources of own funds - total, including: |
826 | |
| 1.1. | 735 | ||
| 1.2. | Undestributed profits | 91 | |
| 2. | Long-term loans | 0 | |
| 3. | Short-term liabilities - total including: |
59,5 | |
| 3.1. | 36,75 | ||
| 3.2. | 22,75 | ||
| Balance | 885,5 | ||
Table 1.2. Financial and economic situation of the enterprise
JSC "Leader" in the reporting year, million rubles
Table 1.3. Forecast of the implementation of the JSC "Leader" enterprise for the coming period
Table 1.4. Production labor cost standards
Table 1.5. Standards for the consumption of material resources
Table 1.6. Estimate of overhead costs for the forecast period, million rubles
Table 1.7. Volumes of forthcoming capital investments, mln. rub.
2.1. Budgeting
1. Compose direct materials budget- is compiled in physical and value terms and shows the general needs of production in basic materials. The purpose of this budget is: to determine the amount of materials needed to produce the planned output and the amount of materials that need to be purchased during the planning period.
Budgeting procedure:
A. Determining the volume of production (required output), pcs.
Vpr-va \u003d \u003d Z GP on kp + V prod - Z GP on np
B. Determination of consumption of materials
V product ∙ N rm per unit
B. Determining the cost of materials
Cons. mats ∙ C m
Costs c and m = ∑ V product ∙ N rm ∙ C m
Table 2.1. The budget for the purchase of raw materials and materials
| Index | Quarter | In a year | |||
| I | II | III | IV | ||
| Production of finished products, pcs. | |||||
| Products A | |||||
| 450 | 450 | 725 | 725 | 725 | |
| (+) Sales | 1450 | 900 | 900 | 1450 | 4700 |
| 725 | 450 | 450 | 725 | 725 | |
| (=) Required release | 1175 | 900 | 1175 | 1450 | 4700 |
| Products B | |||||
| Stocks at the end of the planning period | 1025 | 1025 | 1025 | 1025 | 1025 |
| (+) Sales | 2050 | 2050 | 2050 | 2050 | 8200 |
| (-) Stocks at the beginning of the planning period | 1025 | 1025 | 1025 | 1025 | 1025 |
| (=) Required release | 2050 | 2050 | 2050 | 2050 | 8200 |
| Consumption of basic production materials by quarters, units | |||||
| Material X | 2702,5 | 2070 | 2702,5 | 3335 | 10810 |
| Material Y | 6970 | 6970 | 6970 | 6970 | 27880 |
| Procurement of basic production materials | |||||
| Material X | |||||
| Procurement cost, million rubles | 4,59425 | 3,519 | 4,59425 | 5,6695 | 18,377 |
| Material Y | |||||
| Procurement cost, million rubles | 6,97 | 6,97 | 6,97 | 6,97 | 27,88 |
| Total cost of materials for the enterprise, million rubles | 11,5643 | 10,489 | 11,5643 | 12,6395 | 46,257 |
RUB 46.257 million the enterprise spends on the purchase of raw materials and materials necessary to ensure the planned output (production volume).
2. Compose OT direct cost budget- is based on the division of costs into direct and indirect and takes into account the costs of OT of the main production personnel. The purpose of this budget is: calculation of the total cost of attracting labor resources directly employed in production.
W from = Labor costs ∙ FROM for 1 person / hour
Labor costs \u003d V pr-va (Required output) ∙ Labor input per unit
Z from = ∑ V pr-va ∙ Labor intensity per unit of production ∙ FROM for 1 person/h
Table 2.2. production cost budget
labor force (direct wages)
| Index | Quarter | In a year | |||
| I | II | III | IV | ||
| Labor costs, people - h. | |||||
| Preparatory shop | |||||
| product A | 82250 | 63000 | 82250 | 101500 | 329000 |
| products B | 358750 | 358750 | 358750 | 358750 | 1435000 |
| Total | 441000 | 421750 | 441000 | 460250 | 1764000 |
| machine shop | |||||
| product A | 205625 | 157500 | 205625 | 253750 | 822500 |
| products B | 358750 | 358750 | 358750 | 358750 | 1435000 |
| Total | 564375 | 516250 | 564375 | 612500 | 2257500 |
| Production labor costs, million rubles | |||||
| Preparatory shop | 9,261 | 8,85675 | 9,261 | 9,66525 | 37,044 |
| machine shop | 11,851875 | 10,84125 | 11,851875 | 12,8625 | 47,4075 |
| Total for the enterprise | 21,112875 | 19,698 | 21,112875 | 22,52775 | 84,4515 |
RUB 84.4515 million - the costs incurred by the enterprise for direct wages to ensure the planned output.
3. We will draw up an overhead budget. Overhead costs are the costs incurred by a business in production, excluding direct material and labor costs. They are divided into fixed overheads (the value of which does not change with the load production facilities or a change in the volume of production) and variable overhead costs (their value changes). The purpose of this budget is: planning the overhead costs of the enterprise based on the average level of overhead costs per unit of output.
Variable HP \u003d V pr-va ∙ U alternating HP per unit
Table 2.3. Overhead budget, million rubles
4. Determine the value stocks of raw materials and materials and finished products at the end of the planning period. For this we need to calculate average variable costs(calculated data are presented in table 2.4)
Average variable costs:
HP = Variable Overhead Level
Table 2.4. Average variable costs, thousand rubles / PCS.
Table 2.5. Stocks at the end of the planning period, million rubles
5. Calculate cost price of sold products are the current costs of production and sale of products, expressed in monetary terms.
Table 2.6. Cost of goods sold
in the planned period, million rubles
| Index | Meaning |
| Stocks of raw materials and materials at the beginning of the planning period | 5,77 |
| + Procurement of materials | 46,257 |
| Available raw materials and materials for production | 52,027 |
| - Stocks of raw materials and materials at the end of the planning period | 6,31975 |
| The cost of raw materials and materials used | 45,70725 |
| + Production labor costs | 84,4515 |
| + Overhead | 106,69 |
| Production cost | 236,84875 |
| + Stocks of finished products at the beginning of the planning period | 21,09 |
| - Stocks of finished products at the end of the planning period | 22,403625 |
| Total cost of goods sold | 235,5351 |
6. Define the predicted sales proceeds:
BP \u003d (Tsa * V a) + (CB * V b)
- these are funds received as payment for goods and services sold for a month, quarter, year, including funds received from the sale of finished products and semi-finished products of our own production, works and services ... The main source of payment for obligations is, in fact, an impersonal cash receipt , which can be used to reimburse current expenses, be placed in a bank, used on capital construction etc.
7. We predict the amount of cash flows and cash balances, that is, we make budget cash flow is a plan of cash receipts and payments in all areas of the enterprise. Formed by the balance method. The purposes of this budget: 1) to check the reality of the sources of receipt of funds and the validity of expenditures. 2) assess the ability of the enterprise to fulfill its obligations to creditors. 3) to substantiate the analysis of the synchronism of the expressed flows. 4) to determine the needs of the enterprise in short-term borrowed funds.
Remaining ds per kp \u003d Remaining ds per np + Inflows - Disposals
Table 2.7. Cash flow budget of the enterprise, million rubles
| Index | Quarter | In a year | ||||
| I | II | III | IV | |||
| opening balance | 18,64 | 37,647875 | 70,778375 | 104,82125 | 18,64 | |
| Income | ||||||
| Debtors of the previous period | 70 | 74,295 | 65,165 | 65,165 | 74,295 | |
| Realization of the current period | 74,295 | 65,165 | 65,165 | 74,295 | 278,92 | |
| Total income | 144,295 | 139,46 | 130,33 | 139,46 | 553,545 | |
| Payments | ||||||
| Procurement of raw materials and materials | 11,56425 | 10,489 | 11,56425 | 12,6395 | 46,257 | |
| Manufacturing workforce | 21,112875 | 19,698 | 21,112875 | 22,52775 | 84,4515 | |
| Factory overhead (no depreciation) | 17,9225 | 17,455 | 17,9225 | 18,39 | 71,69 | |
| Selling and administrative expenses | 30,5 | 30,5 | 30,5 | 30,5 | 122 | |
| Capital investments | 35 | 19 | 6 | 18 | 78 | |
| Paying off taxes | 9,1875 | 9,1875 | 9,1875 | 9,1875 | 36,75 | |
| Total payout | 125,287125 | 106,3295 | 96,287125 | 111,24475 | 439,1485 | |
| Closing cash balance | 37,647875 | 70,778375 | 104,82125 | 133,0365 | 133,0365 | |
8. Determine the expected profit, that is, draw up form No. 2 financial statements"Report about incomes and material losses"
Table 2.8. Profit (loss) statement, million rubles
9. We draw up a forecast balance sheet of the enterprise.
Table 2.9. Forecast balance of the enterprise, mln. rub.
| Index | Meaning | ||
| ASSETS | |||
| 1. | 813 | ||
| including: | |||
| 1.1. | 953 | ||
| 1.2. | Depreciation | 140 | |
| 2. | 236,054875 | ||
| 2.1. | Stocks of finished goods | 22,403625 | |
| 2.2. | Stocks of raw materials and materials | 6,31975 | |
| 2.3. | Accounts receivable | 74,295 | |
| 2.4. | Cash | 133,0365 | |
| Balance | 1049,054875 | ||
| LIABILITY | |||
| 1. | 978,231705 | ||
| including: | |||
| 1.1. | Authorized (share) capital | 735 | |
| 1.2. | Undestributed profits | 243,2317 | |
| 1.2.1. opening balance | 91 | ||
| 152,2317 | |||
| 2. | Long-term loans | 0 | |
| 3. | 70,82317 | ||
| 3.1. | Tax payables | 48,07317 | |
| 3.2. | Other accounts payable | 22,75 | |
| Balance | 1049,054875 | ||
10. Estimate the effectiveness of the forecast by the indicator net profitability assets.
R= (NP/Assets) *100%
Fact: R=79.8/885.5= 0.09011 (9.01%)
Prediction: R= 152.231705/1049.054875=0.145113 (14.51%)
Net profit assets in the forecast year increased by 5.5% compared to the actual year. Those. in the base (actual) year for 1 rub. assets of the enterprise accounted for 9 kopecks of profit, and in the forecast year this value increased to 14.5 kopecks. An increase in the net return on assets indicates the effectiveness of the forecast, which is also evidenced by an increase in the value net profit in the forecast year.
3. Forecasting by the method of proportional dependencies.
3.1. Initial information.
Determine the need for additional external financing of the JSC "Leader" enterprise for the year following the planned one. The expected increase in sales will be T P =19%. Also assume full utilization of production capacities and the necessary increase in the growth of fixed assets to ensure the new sales volume will also be 19%. In this case, all asset items, including fixed capital and current liabilities, change in proportion to sales. Take the rate of distribution of net profit for dividends ND = 36%.
Table 1. Profit (loss) statement, million rubles
Table 2. Balance sheet of the enterprise, million rubles
| Index | Meaning | ||
| ASSETS | |||
| 1. | Fixed assets and other non-current assets - total, | 813 | |
| including: | |||
| 1.1. | Equipment and machinery (at initial cost) | 953 | |
| 1.2. | Depreciation | 140 | |
| 2. | Current assets - total, including: | 236,054875 | |
| 2.1. | Stocks of finished goods | 22,403625 | |
| 2.2. | Stocks of raw materials and materials | 6,31975 | |
| 2.3. | Accounts receivable | 74,295 | |
| 2.4. | Cash | 133,0365 | |
| Balance | 1049,054875 | ||
| LIABILITY | |||
| 1. | Sources of own funds - total, | 978,231705 | |
| including: | |||
| 1.1. | Authorized (share) capital | 735 | |
| 1.2. | Undestributed profits | 243,2317 | |
| 1.2.1. opening balance | 91 | ||
| 1.2.2. Profit for the planned year | 152,2317 | ||
| 2. | Long-term loans | 0 | |
| 3. | Current liabilities – total, including: | 70,82317 | |
| 3.1. | Tax payables | 48,07317 | |
| 3.2. | Other accounts payable | 22,75 | |
| Balance | 1049,054875 | ||
Estimated increase in sales - 19%.
The rate of distribution of net profit for dividends is 36%.
3.2. Making a forecast.
Sales HR = PR / VR ∙ 100% = 152.2317 / 557.84 ∙ 100% = 27.29%.
Since the level of net sales profitability is set at the level of the previous year, i.e. it does not change, therefore, the amount of net profit changes in proportion to the amount of proceeds from sales, i.e. also increased by 189%.
NERV forecast.year = PR ∙ (1-ND) = PR of sales ∙ VR pr ∙ (1 - ND) = 0.2729 ∙ 1.19 ∙ 557.84 ∙ (1 - 0.36) = 115.9418 million rub.
Asset: Vn.A pr \u003d VnA f ∙ T r VR \u003d 813 1.19 \u003d 967.47 million rubles.
OA pr \u003d OA f ∙ T r VR \u003d 236.0549 1.19 \u003d 280.905 million rubles.
Total A pr \u003d 1248.375 million rubles.
Liabilities: UK ≈ const = 735 million rubles.
TO ≈ const = 0 mln. rub.
KO pr \u003d KO f ∙ T r BP \u003d 70.82317 ∙ 1.19 \u003d 84.2796 million rubles.
NerPR pr = NerPR ng + NerPR forecast year = 243.2317 + 115.9418 = 359.1735 million rubles.
Total P pr \u003d 1178.4531 million rubles.
A pr - P pr \u003d 1248.375 - 1178.4531 \u003d 69.9219 million rubles. > 0, therefore, there is a need for additional external financing (AFF).
Index |
Base period | Forecast period | |
| 1. | Current assets | 236,0549 | 280,905 |
| 2. | Fixed assets | 813 | 967,47 |
| Total asset | 1049,0549 | 1248,375 | |
| 3. | Current responsibility | 70,82317 | 84,2796 |
| 4. | long term duties | 0 | 0 |
| 5. | Total liabilities | 70,82317 | 84,2796 |
| 6. | Authorized capital | 735 | 735 |
| 7. | Undestributed profits | 243,2317 | 359,1735 |
| 8. | Total equity | 978,2317 | 1094,1735 |
| total liability | 1049,0548 | 1178,4531 | |
| Required external funding | 69,9219 | ||
| Total | 1248,375 | ||
To meet the forecasted sales volume, new capital investments in the amount of 154.47 million rubles.
At the same time, the growth current assets should amount to 44.8502 million rubles.
The increase in funding sources does not cover the growing needs, a deficit in the amount of 69.9219 million rubles is formed.
Thus, to ensure a given volume of sales, the company needs to attract 69.9219 million rubles. own or borrowed funds.
Conclusion.
1. Based on a comprehensive and multilateral study of the organization and planning of budget revenues, it is possible to outline the main directions for the development of the budget in the future, as well as the implementation of a set of measures at all stages of the budget process within the framework of the general concept of its development and reform. In particular, in the area of income generation, the following can be proposed:
1. The use of more advanced methods of planning and
forecasting, providing multivariate calculations based on
economic and mathematical methods and modeling, the choice of the optimal
option; transition to multivariate drafting of the budget.
2. Increasing the validity of macroeconomic indicators as
Fundamentals of income budget planning.
3. Obtaining reliable and objective information about alleged
changes in tax and customs legislation for calculating the base
taxation; development of a legal reform program, including a program
taxation.
4. Restructuring budget revenues. It means the optimal
combination of direct and indirect taxes, taxes and non-tax payments,
budget revenues and trust funds; strengthening the role of market sources in
formation of budget revenues (receipts from privatization
state property, sale of shares owned by the state,
property taxes, etc.).
5. Improving tax planning; tax optimization
loads.
6. Refusal to plan the amounts of fines and sanctions as part of income
7. Gradual liquidation of target budget funds (except for funds
social orientation), the formation of an integrated structure
8. Reforming the mechanism for redistributing budgetary resources
through a system of transfers from the financial support fund for administrative and
territorial units.
9. Strengthening and development of the legislative framework for taxation,
including the delimitation of powers of various branches of government in regulating
taxation.
Having considered in this paper budget planning and forecasting, as well as their methods, we can conclude that the income planning methodology is not legally established and therefore there are no uniform methods and principles of planning, however, public authorities responsible for drafting the budget apply general principles and methods planning. For budget planning, and in particular budget revenue planning, mainly interscientific planning methods are used, in particular the extrapolation method and the method of expert assessments.
2. Budgeting is a system of short-term planning, accounting and control of resources and performance commercial organization by responsibility centers, which allows you to analyze the predicted and obtained performance indicators for the purpose of enterprise management.
The planning of JSC “Leader” activities using the budgeting method showed that the enterprise will not need to raise additional funds, because there is a positive final balance of funds. Net sales margin increased by 5.5% compared to previous year. The value of the company's net profit also increased. All this indicates a fairly stable financial condition enterprises and the effectiveness of the forecast.
3. The method of proportional dependencies is the method of dependence of performance indicators on sales proceeds. When using this method, the ultimate goal is to determine the need for additional external funding.
Forecasting using the method of proportional dependencies showed that new capital investments in the amount of 154.47 million rubles are required to ensure the forecast sales volume. At the same time, the increase in current assets should amount to 44.8502 million rubles. The increase in funding sources does not cover the increase in demand, a deficit in the amount of 69.9219 million rubles is formed. Thus, to ensure a given volume of sales, the company needs to attract 69.9219 million rubles. own or borrowed funds.
Bibliography
1. Budget Code of the Russian Federation (BC RF) dated July 31, 1998 N 145-FZ
2. Alexandrov I. M. The budget system of the Russian Federation, textbook - M .: | "Dashkov and Co", 2007
3. Babich.A.M. Pavlova L.N. Finance, uch. .-M.: ID FBK - Press, 2000.
4. The budget system of the Russian Federation: Textbook for universities, Ed. 5th, corrected, add. / Godin A.M., Goreglyad V.P., Podporina I.V. - M.: ITK Dashkov i K, 2007.
5. The budget system of the Russian Federation. Textbook for universities. Neshitoy A.S. - M.: Dashkov i K, 2008.
6. Finance, money turnover and credit. A. M. Babich, L.N. Pavlova. – M.: UNITI, 2000.
7. Financial libraryhttp://lib.mabico.ru
8. http://www.finam.ru
9. The budget system of Russia: Textbook for universities / ed. Prof. G.B. Pole.-M.: UNITY-DANA, 1999
10. http://www.xserver.ru "The regulatory function of the budget in management" / Yakobson Pavel - 2008.
11. "Budget forecasting in the Russian Federation" / Maslov K.A. – 2006
12. "Methodology of income planning federal budget» / Morina O.M. -2005
Economic fundamentals and organization of budget revenue forecasting.
Forecasting income based on the forecast of the socio-economic development of the territory in the conditions of the current on the day the draft law (decision) on the budget is submitted to the legislative (representative) body of the legislation on taxes and fees and the budget legislation of the Russian Federation, as well as the legislation of the Russian Federation, the laws of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipal legal acts of representative bodies of municipalities that establish non-tax revenues of the budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation.
Methodology for forecasting budget revenues: calculation of basic indicators, the procedure for applying correction factors.
Forecasting tax revenues: federal, regional and local taxes and fees, taxes levied under special tax regimes.
Planning of receipts to the budgets of different levels of non-tax revenues: income from the sale and use of state and municipal property, from foreign economic activity, the provision of paid services by budgetary institutions, license fees, customs duties and customs fees, etc.
Forecasting of tax and non-tax revenues, taking into account the standards established by the tax and budget legislation of the Russian Federation, the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for crediting these revenues to budgets of different levels.
Features of planning gratuitous receipts in the form of grants, subsidies, subventions, other interbudgetary transfers from the budgets of other levels of the budget system.
In accordance with the requirements of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, budget revenues are planned based on the forecast of the socio-economic development of the territory in the conditions of the current on the day the draft law (decision) on the budget is submitted to the legislative (representative) body of legislation on taxes and fees and the budget legislation of the Russian Federation, as well as the legislation of the Russian Federation, the laws of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipal legal acts of the representative bodies of municipalities that establish non-tax revenues of the budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation.
Federal laws, laws of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, decisions of representative bodies of municipalities that provide for amendments to the relevant legislation on taxes and fees, adopted after the date of introduction of the draft law (decision) on the budget for the next financial year and planning period, leading to a change in income (expenses) ) budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation, must contain provisions on the entry into force of these laws not earlier than January 1 of the year following the next financial year.
Features of planning tax and non-tax revenues
Tax and non-tax budget revenues are forecasted according to the enrollment standards approved by the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, taking into account the expected assessment of tax and non-tax payments to the budget in the current financial year, deflator indices for planned periods, arrears of past periods, restructured debt legal entities, based on data from revenue administrators, as well as taking into account measures to further improve the administration of mandatory payments.
There is no legislative requirement for the financial authorities to approve the methodology for planning tax and non-tax budget revenues, but at the same time, the Ministry of Finance recommends doing so. Therefore, the regions and municipalities have their own methods, which differ significantly from each other.
Examples of forecasting tax and non-tax revenues.
Corporate income tax
Calculation of corporate income tax revenues (hereinafter referred to as income tax) is carried out in accordance with Chapter 25 tax code of the Russian Federation and the Law of the Bryansk Region dated November 26, 2004 No. 73-3 “On the reduction of the corporate income tax rate for certain categories of taxpayers”.
The basis for calculating income tax receipts is taxable income, without excluding additional regional benefits, reflected in section 1 (line 1010, column 1) of a report in the form 5-PM (excluding taxpayers registered with the interregional tax authorities of Russia), provided Department of the Federal Tax Service of Russia for the Bryansk region for the last reporting year.
The amount of income tax receipts is calculated according to the formula:
H \u003d [(NB x TR) / 100 - FROM] x C x KS - L + WED x KN + OP + MI,
H - the projected amount of income tax revenues;
NB - the value of the tax base for the reporting period;
TR is the predicted rate of growth of the tax base for the planned year, taking into account the forecast of the socio-economic development of the territory;
IZ - decrease (increase) of the tax base due to changes in tax legislation;
C - the tax rate to the budget (2% - to the federal, 18% - to the regional) in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation for the planned year;
KS - collection coefficient for income tax for the planned year;
L - the amount of income tax benefits that come into force from the planned year in accordance with the regional legislation (according to the calculations of the Financial Department of the Bryansk Region based on the results of the assessment of the effectiveness tax incentives regional budget);
NED - the projected size of the arrears in income tax at the beginning of the planned year (according to the Office of the Federal Tax Service of Russia for the Bryansk region);
КН - predicted coefficient of income tax arrears for the planned year;
OP - the projected amount of income tax revenues for separate subdivisions, the head organizations of which are located outside the Bryansk region (according to the Office of the Federal Tax Service of Russia for the Bryansk region);
MI - the projected amount of income tax receipts for taxpayers who are tax registered with the interregional Federal Tax Service of Russia (according to taxpayers' information);
