19.1. In line with the Guidelines budget policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019 (hereinafter referred to as the Main Directions) main task for the next three years is to ensure a smooth transition to fully market-based financing of the budget deficit, while it is planned to systematically reduce it in relation to GDP by 1 percentage point annually in 2017-2019. The role of sovereign funds as sources of financing the budget deficit will decrease, and the share of domestic borrowings will increase in the structure of its financing sources. At the same time, the volume of borrowings in foreign markets will be determined primarily by the task of maintaining the liquidity of the sovereign Eurobond market. The Guidelines indicate that the implementation of such a deficit financing strategy will make it possible to maintain the level of public debt in acceptable amounts - up to 17% of GDP.
State debt in 2017 compared to the estimate in 2016 will increase from 13,445.2 billion rubles (16.2% of GDP) before 13,972.2 billion rubles (16.1% of GDP), or by 527.0 billion rubles (by 3.9%), in 2018 - up to 15,177.1 billion rubles (16.4% of GDP), or by 1,731.9 billion rubles (by 12.9%), in 2019 - up to 16,651.9 billion rubles (16.8% of GDP), or by 3,206.7 billion rubles (by 23.9%). Wherein share state domestic debt in the total volume of public debt in 2017-2019 will increase and amount to 74.1%, 76.3% and 76.8% share state external debt decline – 25.9%, 23.7% and 23.2% respectively.
The volume of public domestic debt Russian Federation compared to the estimate of 2016 will increase from 9,867.8 billion rubles to 12,788.4 billion rubles in 2019, or by 2,920.6 billion rubles (1.3 times). The volume of the public external debt of the Russian Federation is projected to increase from 3,577.4 billion rubles in 2016 to 3,863.5 billion rubles in 2019, or by 286.1 billion rubles (by 8%).
The dynamics of the volume and structure of public debt in 2014-2019 (at the end of the year) is presented in the following table.
(billion rubles)
| 2014 report | 2015 report | 2016, law | 2016 estimate | 2017, project | 2018, project | 2019, project | |
| State debt of the Russian Federation | 10 299,1 | 10 951,9 | 12 317,5 | 13 445,2 | 13 972,2 | 15 177,1 | 16 651,9 |
| % of GDP | 13,2 | 13,6 | 15,7 | 16,2 | 16,1 | 16,4 | 16,8 |
| % to previous year | 136,4 | 106,3 | 112,5 | 122,8 | 103,9 | 108,6 | 109,7 |
| % by 2016 | 103,9 | 112,9 | 123,9 | ||||
| including: | |||||||
| Government domestic debt | 7 241,2 | 7 307,6 | 8 817,8 | 9 867,8 | 10 351,6 | 11 580,9 | 12 788,4 |
| % of GDP | 9,3 | 11,2 | 11,9 | 11,9 | 12,5 | 12,9 | |
| % to the previous year | 126,5 | 120,4 | 114,4 | 104,9 | 111,9 | 110,4 | |
| % by 2016 | 104,9 | 117,4 | 129,6 | ||||
| Government external debt | 3 057,9 | 3 644,3 | 3 499,7 | 3 577,4 | 3 620,6 | 3 596,2 | 3 863,5 |
| % of GDP | 3,9 | 4,5 | 4,4 | 4,3 | 4,2 | 3,9 | 3,9 |
| % to the previous year | 167,5 | 119,2 | 98,2 | 101,2 | 99,3 | 107,4 | |
| % by 2016 | 101,2 | 100,5 | |||||
| Reference: | |||||||
| GDP | 77 945,1 | 80 804,3 | 78 673,0 | 82 815,0 | 86 806,0 | 92 296,0 | 98 860,0 |
| Ruble to US dollar exchange rate | 61 | 63,3 | 67,5 | 67,5 | 68,7 | 71,1 | |
| Public external debt in billions of US dollars | 50,0 | 55,1 | 55,1 | 53,6 | 52,8 | 53,6 |
The analysis of the given data shows that in 2017-2019, compared with the estimate of 2016, along with an increase in the absolute volume government debt of the Russian Federation its ratio to GDP increases from 16.2% to 16.8% in 2019, while the public domestic debt will increase from 11.9% of GDP to 12.9% of GDP in 2019, external debt will decrease from 4.3% of GDP up to 3.9% of GDP, respectively.
Passport project state program of the Russian Federation "Public financial management and regulation of financial markets" the value of the target indicator "State debt of the Russian Federation in relation to gross domestic product, no more" was reduced in 2016 from 14.3% to 20%, the same value of the indicator is provided for in 2017 - 2019. Thus, the volume of the public debt of the Russian Federation in the coming period is projected at a level of up to 17% of GDP, that is, it will remain at a relatively safe level.
Data on changes in the volume of public debt in 2008-2019 are presented in the following diagram.
In order to determine safe levels of volumes and structure of public debt in world practice, various indicators of debt sustainability are used. When analyzing debt sustainability indicators from a budgetary standpoint, the ratios of the government's public debt and indicators characterizing the state of the state budget are assessed.
The main indicators used in world practice that characterize the degree of debt sustainability in relation to the Russian Federation in 2014-2019 are shown in the following table.
| Name of indicator | year 2014 | 2015 | 2016 (estimate) | 2017 (forecast) | 2018 (forecast) | 2019 (forecast) | Criterion (indicative values) |
| Public debt of the Russian Federation, % of GDP | 13,2 | 13,6 | 16,2 | 16,1 | 16,4 | 16,8 | < 50 % |
| The share of public domestic debt in the total public debt of the Russian Federation, % | 70,3 | 66,7 | 73,4 | 74,1 | 76,3 | 76,8 | > 50 % |
| Share of public debt service expenditures in total expenditures federal budget, % | 2,8 | 3,3 | 3,9 | 4,5 | 5,3 | 5,4 | < 10 % |
| The ratio of the annual amount of payments for the repayment and servicing of public debt to federal budget revenues, % | 5,6 | 10,1 | 9,4 | 11,9 | 11,9 | 11,6 | < 10 % |
| The ratio of the public debt of the Russian Federation to federal budget revenues, % | 80,2 | 100,6 | 103,6 | 108,2 | 112,2 | < 250 % | |
| The ratio of the state external debt of the Russian Federation to the annual volume of exports of goods and services, % | 9,6 | 12,7 | 17,1 | 16,3 | 15,6 | 15,3 | < 220 % |
| The ratio of the annual amount of payments for the repayment and servicing of the state external debt to the annual volume of exports of goods and services, % | 0,8 | 1,7 | 1,3 | 1,9 | 2,3 | 1,6 | < 25 % |
It can be seen from the data in the table that such indicators as the ratio of public debt to GDP, the share of expenditures on servicing public debt in the total volume of federal budget expenditures, the ratio of public debt to federal budget revenues, even taking into account the growth of their values in 2017-2019, do not exceed thresholds. At the same time, the coefficient characterizing the ratio of the annual amount of payments for the repayment and servicing of the state debt to the federal budget revenues, according to the parameters of the draft law in 2017-2019 slightly above the threshold.
The coverage ratio, which shows the ratio of the volume of payments for the repayment and servicing of public debt to the total volume of borrowings, in 2017-2019 will be 84.7%, 92.9% and 91.9%, respectively (in 2015, its value was 195.2% , in 2016 - 104.8%). The decrease in this ratio is mainly due to a significant increase in the volume of government borrowings of the Russian Federation due to the placement of government securities on the domestic market in the period under review. Against the backdrop of a significant increase in the total volume of demand from investors on their terms observed over the past two years, a sharp increase in the volume of government borrowings may lead to a deterioration in the conditions for the placement of government bonds (an increase in yields and a reduction in the terms of borrowings in the context of a limited capacity of the Russian debt market and the investment horizon of its participants ), as well as a significant increase in the volume of the state internal debt of the Russian Federation and an increase in the debt burden on the federal budget in terms of servicing it.
19.2. ceiling on public domestic debt as of January 1, 2018, it is provided in the amount 10,351.6 billion rubles, which is 483.8 billion rubles, or 4.9%, higher than the maximum amount of public domestic debt as of January 1, 2017, established by Federal Law No. 359-FZ, subject to changes.
The dynamics of the volume and structure of public domestic debt (as of the end of the year) in 2015-2019 is presented in the following table.
| 2015 report | 2016 (Federal Law No. 359-FZ as amended) | 2017, project | 2018, project | 2019, project | 2019 to 2016, % | ||||||
| billion rubles | structure, % | billion rubles | structure, % | billion rubles | structure, % | billion rubles | structure, % | billion rubles | structure, % | % | |
| Government domestic debt, total | 7 307,6 | 9 867,8 | 10 351,6 | 11 580,9 | 12 788,4 | 129,6 | |||||
| including: | |||||||||||
| government securities | 5 573,1 | 76,3 | 6 141,1 | 62,2 | 7 205,2 | 69,6 | 8 301,0 | 71,7 | 9 388,8 | 73,4 | 153,7 |
| state guarantees | 1 734,5 | 23,7 | 3 726,7 | 37,8 | 3 146,4 | 30,4 | 3 279,9 | 28,3 | 3 399,6 | 26,6 | 91,2 |
An analysis of the above data shows that the growth of public domestic debt is due to an increase in debt on public securities, the nominal value of which is indicated in the currency of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the share of debt on government securities in the volume of government domestic debt will increase from 69.6% in 2017 to 73.4% in 2019, on government guarantees it will decrease from 30.4% in 2017 to 26.6% in 2019.
The volume of domestic debt denominated in government securities in 2017 will amount to 7,205.2 billion rubles, which is 1,098.0 billion rubles or 18% more than in 2016, and 1,632.1 billion rubles, or 29.3% more than in 2015. In 2017-2019, it will increase by 1.5 times and by the end of 2019 will amount to 9,388.8 billion rubles.
In accordance with the Main Directions, the Ministry of Finance of Russia plans to issue new special government securities for the population in order to attract additional borrowed funds.
In accordance with Article 13 of the draft law and the Program of State Guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the Guarantee Program) for 2017 (Appendix 45 to the Draft Law), the provision of state guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation (hereinafter also referred to as guarantees) is provided for in 2017 in the amount of 190.1 billion rubles.
The planned volume of guarantees in 2017 is significantly lower than the volumes of state guarantees provided for by the programs of state guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation in 2012-2016. Thus, the planned volume in 2017 is 67.9% lower than the total amount of the guarantee in 2016 (592.5 billion rubles), 66.2% lower than the total amount of the guarantee in 2015 (563.3 billion rubles).
At the same time, for a number of years there has been a negative trend in non-execution of Guarantee Programs: in 2011, the volume of actually issued guarantees amounted to 48.1% of the guarantee amount under the Guarantee Program, in 2012 - 67.8%, in 2013 - 68.3%, for 2014 - 77.1%, for 2015 - 37%. In January-October 2016, the implementation of the Guarantee Program is only 0.2% of the established volume (592.5 billion rubles).
Data on the volume of provision of state guarantees in the currency of the Russian Federation in 2017 - 2019 by guarantee purposes are presented in the following table.
| Purpose of the guarantee | The volume of provision of state guarantees in 2017, million rubles | Share in total volume, % | The volume of provision of state guarantees in 2018, million rubles | The volume of provision of state guarantees in 2019, million rubles |
| For loans or bonded loans attracted by legal entities selected in the manner established by the Government of the Russian Federation for the implementation of investment projects or for other purposes, established by the Government Russian Federation | 100 000,0 | 52,6 | 100 000,0 | 100 000,0 |
| For loans or bonded loans attracted by subsidiaries or affiliates of the State Corporation for Assistance in the Development, Production and Export of High-Technological Industrial Products "Rostec", as well as by subsidiaries and affiliates of these legal entities for the purpose of acquiring blocks of shares of Russian joint-stock companies or shares in the authorized capital of limited liability companies owned by RUSNANO JSC | 6 400,0 | 3,4 | not provided | not provided |
| For loans attracted by organizations of the military-industrial complex for the implementation of projects carried out within the framework of the federal target program "Development of the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation for 2011 - 2020" | 43 724,7 | not provided | not provided | |
| For loans or bonded loans attracted by legal entities registered and carrying out their main statutory activities in the territory of the North Caucasus federal district, for the implementation of investment projects to create a tourism cluster in the North Caucasus Federal District | 8 000,0 | 4,2 | 9 000,0 | 9 000,0 |
| For loans or bonded loans attracted joint stock company RUSNANO for the implementation of investment projects in the nanoindustry, financing investment funds nanotechnologies, as well as to repay loans or bonded loans attracted by RUSNANO JSC earlier to achieve the goals specified in the charter of RUSNANO JSC | 21 100,0 | 11,1 | 13 400,0 | not provided |
| For loans raised by legal entities registered and carrying out their main statutory activities in the territory of the North Caucasus Federal District, for the implementation of investment projects in the territory of the North Caucasus Federal District | 10 000,0 | 5,3 | 10 000,0 | 10 000,0 |
| For loans attracted by the United Engine Corporation OJSC to finance work on the organization of mass production of engine parts and engine nacelles of advanced engines for civil aviation | 899,2 | 0,5 | 1 115,6 | 726,9 |
| Total | 190 123,9 | 133 515,6 | 119 726,9 |
The main volume of guarantees planned to be issued in 2017 is for the purpose of guaranteeing “loans or bonded loans attracted by legal entities selected in the manner established by the Government of the Russian Federation for the implementation of investment projects or for other purposes established by the Government of the Russian Federation”. In accordance with the draft law, in 2017, for the specified purpose of guaranteeing, it is planned to provide state guarantees in the amount of 100.0 billion rubles, which is 52.6% of the total volume of provision, provided by the Program.
The volume of guarantees for this purpose in 2016 is 175.3 billion rubles, or 29.6% of the total amount of guarantees; in 2015 - 297.5 billion rubles, or 52.8%; in 2014 - 97.5 billion rubles, or 14.1%; in 2013 - 97.5 billion rubles, or 15.9%; in 2012 - 128.5 billion rubles, or 26%.
It should be noted the insufficient level of execution of the Guarantee Programs for the specified purpose of guaranteeing for last years. Thus, in 2012, out of the envisaged volume, state guarantees were actually provided in the amount of 67.6 billion rubles, or 52.6% of the established amount of guarantees, in 2013 no guarantees were provided, in 2014, 44.0 billion rubles were actually provided, or 45.1%, in 2015 - 50.9 billion rubles, or 17.1%. As of October 1, 2016, according to the State Debt Book of the Russian Federation, no guarantees were provided for this purpose.
Also, for a number of years, the main volume of state guarantees was for the purpose of guaranteeing "on loans attracted by organizations of the military-industrial complex for the purposes of fulfilling (implementing) the state defense order." Thus, in 2012, the volume of guarantees for this purpose amounted to 40.4% of the total volume provided for by the Program of State Guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation for 2012; in 2013 - 65.2%; in 2014 - 71.8%; in 2015 - 4.6%; in 2016 - 35.3%. In 2017, the provision of state guarantees for this purpose is not provided.
In 2017, a significant amount of state guarantees is planned for the purpose of guaranteeing "on loans attracted by organizations of the military-industrial complex for the implementation of projects implemented under the federal target program "Development of the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation for 2011-2020", which is 23 % of the total amount provided for by the draft Guarantee Program.
It should be noted that there are risks of non-fulfillment of the planned volumes of state guarantees provided for by the Guarantee Program for 2017. Thus, as of October 1, 2016, only 2 state guarantees were provided in the amount of 1,072.0 million rubles, or 0.2% of the volume provided for by the Program of State Guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation for 2016. Wherein Accounts Chamber repeatedly noted the uneven provision of state guarantees during the year. Thus, the bulk of the provision of state guarantees falls annually in December.
The main volume of state guarantees of the Russian Federation planned to be issued in 2017 in the currency of the Russian Federation falls on guarantees with the right of recourse or with the assignment of rights of claim to a person for whose obligations a state guarantee of the Russian Federation is presented - 83.6% of the total volume. The provision of a state guarantee without the right of recourse is planned by JSC RUSNANO in the amount of 21.1 billion rubles (the volume of state guarantees of JSC RUSNANO in 2016 is 35.5 billion rubles) and for loans attracted by legal entities registered and performing its main statutory activities in the territory of the North Caucasus Federal District, for the implementation of investment projects in the territory of the North Caucasus Federal District - in the amount of 10.0 billion rubles.
Draft Guarantee Program for 2017 for possible performance State guarantees of the Russian Federation provide for budget appropriations:
at the expense of sources of financing the federal budget deficit under guarantees provided with the right of recourse - 80,573.4 million rubles;
for federal budget expenditures on guarantees provided without the right of recourse and without assignment of rights of claim - 11,169.9 million rubles.
According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, the volume of planned budget allocations for the possible execution of state guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation in 2017 increased due to an increase in the volume of obligations compared to the Federal Law No. 359-FZ established for 2016: by sources of financing the federal budget deficit - by 39,635.2 million rubles, or 2 times, for federal budget expenditures - by 6,479.2 million rubles, or 2.4 times.
An analysis of the actual use of budgetary allocations provided for the execution of state guarantees for possible warranty cases showed that in 2014-2015 the execution of state guarantees was not carried out, in January-September 2016 the guarantor fulfilled obligations in the amount of 133.84 million rubles.
To date, the Ministry of Finance of Russia has not taken measures to implement budgetary powers to organize the drafting of the federal budget in terms of implementing methodological guidance in the formation of the draft state guarantee program. Normative act Ministry of Finance of Russia on approval of the procedure for the formation of a draft program of state guarantees of the Russian Federation (including the goals and scope of guarantee, the presence or absence of the right of recourse claim of the guarantor against the principal, as well as the presence of other conditions, including the implementation of the analysis financial condition principal when providing a guarantee) is not accepted.
It should be noted that the Accounts Chamber, in its opinion on the report on the execution of the federal budget for 2015, noted that normative document The Ministry of Finance of Russia, which determines the procedure for the formation of draft programs of state guarantees of the Russian Federation, including in the currency of the Russian Federation, has not been approved.
19.3. According to article 1 of the bill upper limit of the state external debt of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2018, it is provided in the amount US$53.6 billion, or 48.7 billion euros, which is 1.5 billion US dollars, or 2.7%, less than the upper limit of external debt as of January 1, 2017, established by Federal Law No. 359-FZ, as amended.
The dynamics of the volume and structure of the state external debt (at the end of the year) is presented in the following table.
(million US dollars)
| 2015 report | 2016 estimate | 2017, project | 2018, project | 2019, project | |||||||
| sum | structure, % | sum | structure, % | sum | structure, % | sum | structure, % | sum | structure, % | ||
| Public external debt of the Russian Federation - total | 50 002,4 | 52 803,0 | 53 558,8 | 52 806,8 | 53 585,9 | ||||||
| including: | |||||||||||
| loans foreign countries, including target foreign loans(borrowings), MFIs, other entities international law, foreign legal entities in foreign currency | 2 209,9 | 4,4 | 1 693,3 | 3,2 | 1 529,6 | 2,9 | 1 317,1 | 2,5 | 1 093,7 | ||
| government securities of the Russian Federation, the nominal value of which is indicated in foreign currency | 35 916,6 | 71,8 | 37 653,8 | 71,3 | 37 373,3 | 69,8 | 35 633,8 | 67,5 | 35 436,3 | 66,1 | |
| state guarantees of the Russian Federation in foreign currency | 11 875,9 | 23,8 | 13 455,9 | 25,5 | 14 655,9 | 27,4 | 15 855,9 | 17 055,9 | 31,8 |
When calculating the volume of the state external debt of the Russian Federation for the indicated dates, the following forecast exchange rates were used: 64.9 rubles per 1 US dollar for calculating the debt as of January 1, 2017; 67.6 rubles per 1 US dollar for calculating the debt as of January 1, 2018; 68.1 rubles per 1 US dollar for calculating the debt as of January 1, 2019; 72.1 rubles per 1 US dollar for calculating the debt on January 1, 2020. A factor of 1.10 was used to convert debt denominated in euros into dollars, except for debt as of January 1, 2017, calculated using a factor of 1.11.
The most significant part of the state external debt of the Russian Federation falls on government securities of the Russian Federation, the nominal value of which is indicated in foreign currency. As of January 1, 2017 and January 1, 2018, it will be 71.3% and 69.8%, respectively, of the amount of the state external debt denominated in US dollars, which is somewhat lower than on January 1, 2016 (71.8%). In 2018 and 2019, the share of government securities of the Russian Federation denominated in foreign currency will decrease slightly and amount to 67.5% and 66.1%, respectively.
It is predicted that the share of debt under state guarantees of the Russian Federation in foreign currency will be 25.5% and 27.4% as of January 1, 2017 and January 1, 2018, respectively (compared to 23.8% as of January 1, 2016), by January 1, 2019 and January 1, 2020 - 30% and 31.8%. The share of debt to IFIs, foreign governments and under a deposit agreement with central bank Libya will continue to decline: from 4.4% on January 1, 2016 to 2% on January 1, 2020.
As of January 1, 2016, the state external debt on bonds of external bond loans of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as OVOS) amounted to 35,911.2 million US dollars (2,617.3 billion rubles). In 2016, OVOZs were placed in the amount of USD 3,000.0 million, and taking into account the repayment in the amount of USD 1,273.1 million as of January 1, 2017, the debt on Eurobonds will amount to USD 37,650.5 million (2 443.5 billion rubles).
Managed by public debt refers to a set of government measures to pay income to creditors and repay loans, change the terms of already issued loans, determine the conditions and issue new government securities.
Public debt management is carried out by the Government of the Russian Federation within its powers.
Management Goals public debt are:
The payment of income on loans and their repayment are usually made at the expense of budget funds. However, in the context of a significant increase in public debt and growing budgetary difficulties, the country may also resort to refinancing public debt.
Under refinancing refers to the repayment of old government debt by issuing new loans.
For example, our country used refinancing to pay off the debt on the state 3% domestic winning loan of 1966. After the expiration of this loan, the bonds were exchanged within one year for bonds of a new loan - the domestic winning loan of 1982 without paying the exchange rate difference.
Refinancing was also used in the issuance of government treasury bills. As the implementation proceeded, additional funds were allocated to repay the loans of 1955-1956, which were placed among the population by subscription.
Refinancing is actively used in the payment of interest and repayments on the external part of the public debt. An indispensable condition for the provision of new loans is the reputation of the debtor country in the circles of the international financial market, its economic and political stability.
Loans are repaid by drawing winnings (when the face value of the bond is paid along with the winnings), as well as redemption drawings on winning and interest-bearing loans, or by buying government securities from creditors. The payment of income on loans is made by holding drawings of winnings, annual payment of coupons by banks or transferring the amount of income in a non-cash manner to the accounts of enterprises and organizations. A non-cash procedure for obtaining income was provided for the state internal five-percent loan of 1990, placed among enterprises, as well as banks, insurance and other financial and credit institutions.
payout of winnings, annual interest, loan repayment amounts account for the bulk of public debt management costs. The latter also include the costs of manufacturing, sending and selling state securities, holding draws of winnings, redemption runs and some other expenses.
The state should take care of efficiency state loan. A superficial idea of the effectiveness of borrowing operations can be obtained from a comparison of the amounts of annual receipts from the public credit system. A relatively complete picture of the effectiveness of public credit operations is given by the ratio of the amount of excess receipts over expenditures under the public credit system to the amount of expenditures, expressed as a percentage.
Credit Efficiency (E) is determined by the formula
E \u003d ((P-R) / R) x 100,
where P - receipts from the state credit system; Р - expenditures under the system of state credit.
However, the amount of receipts from the state credit system and the excess of receipts over expenditures under credit transactions do not give an exhaustive description of their effectiveness. It should also take into account the positive impact of the state loan on the state budget and monetary circulation countries, strengthening public confidence in financial activities government structures and, as a result, favorable trends in economic development society.
According to the external public debt is determined coefficient his service. It represents the ratio of all debt payments to the country's foreign exchange earnings from exports of goods and services, expressed as a percentage. A safe level of public debt service is considered to be its value up to 25%. In our country, the external debt service ratio significantly exceeds the permissible limits.
Such measures in the field of public debt management as conversion, consolidation, exchange of bonds according to a regressive ratio, deferral of repayment and cancellation of loans are aimed at achieving the effectiveness of public credit.
Under conversion refers to the change in the yield of loans. In order to reduce the cost of public debt management, the state most often reduces the amount of interest paid on loans. However, an increase in the yield of government securities for creditors is not ruled out.
Under consolidation refers to a change in the terms of loans associated with their terms. The state is interested in obtaining loans for long periods. An increase in the duration of loans already issued can be achieved through the consolidation of public debt.
Unification Loans is the combination of several loans into one, when bonds of previously issued loans are exchanged for bonds of a new loan. The unification of government loans is usually carried out along with consolidation, but can be carried out outside of it.
Such a measure provides for a reduction in the number of types of securities circulating simultaneously, which simplifies work and reduces government spending on the state credit system. In exceptional cases, the government may exchange of bonds on a regressive ratio, those. when several previously issued bonds are equated to one new bond.
Deferral of loan repayment or all previously issued loans is carried out in conditions where the further active development of operations for the issuance of new loans is not financially effective for the state. This happens at a time when the government has already issued too many loans and the terms of their issue were not sufficiently favorable for the state. In such cases, most of the proceeds from the sale of bonds of new loans are used to pay interest and repayments on previously issued loans. To break this vicious cycle, the government announces a deferral of loan repayments, which differs from consolidation in that the deferral not only delays the repayment period, but also stops the payment of income.
Conversion, consolidation, unification of government loans and the exchange of government bonds are usually carried out only in relation to domestic loans. With regard to postponing the repayment of obligations, this measure is also possible in relation to external debt. Postponement of repayment of external loans, as a rule, is carried out in agreement with creditors. At the same time, the delay in repayment of the debt may not entail the suspension of the payment of interest on it.
Under cancellation of public debt is understood as a measure, as a result of which the state completely refuses obligations on issued loans (internal, external, or for the entire public debt).
Cancellation of government securities can be carried out for two reasons. First, the cancellation of the public debt is announced in the event of the financial insolvency of the state, i.e. his bankruptcy. Secondly, debt cancellation may be the result of the coming to power of new political forces that, for certain reasons, refuse to recognize financial obligations previous authorities. It should be noted that at present the Government of the Russian Federation has recognized a part of the external pre-revolutionary debt.
Important is the area of public debt management, associated with the definition of conditions and the issuance of new loans. When determining the conditions for issuing loans, the main of which are the level of return on securities for creditors, the duration of loans, the method of paying income, the state must be guided not only by the interests of achieving maximum financial efficiency of loans, but also take into account the real situation on financial market. The success of new loans can only be ensured if the situation in the economy, the state of money circulation, the level of profitability and terms of existing loans, the benefits provided to creditors and many other factors are correctly taken into account.
When managing public debt, it is also used restructuring - repayment of debt obligations with the consent of creditors, with payment by installments (i.e. acceptance of other debt obligations) in the amount of debt obligations to be redeemed with the establishment of other conditions for servicing debt obligations and repayment terms (revision of payment terms, write-off of part of the debt).
In world practice, there are four main schemes for restructuring sovereign debt:
In order to manage the public debt and reduce it, Russia is developing a program of state external borrowings of the Russian Federation for the next fiscal year indicating the purpose, sources and volumes of borrowings, as well as the terms of repayment. As a result of the management procedure, the debt decreases, and in some cases increases. If the debt or part of it is written off, then subject to taking new loans.
A program of state internal borrowings of the Russian Federation to cover the deficit is also being developed.
All funds coming to the budget from borrowing, including funds spent on servicing and repaying the public debt, are reflected in the budget as sources of financing the budget deficit.
The public debt management system is an interconnection of budgetary, financial, accounting, organizational and other procedures aimed at the effective regulation of public debt and reducing the impact of the debt burden on the country's economy.
The public debt management system is directly related to the budget process, since the debt policy and the public debt management system directly affect the formation of budget policy. With this in mind, public debt management policy and the debt management system are necessary conditions for the formation of a sound budget policy and the normal functioning of the budget process.
Within the framework of public debt management, two separate public debt books:
The methodology for accounting for debt obligations varies significantly in various departments of the Ministry of Finance of Russia, which record not only by category of debt, but also by type of debt obligations, which makes it difficult to determine the exact amount of debt and long-term budget planning in terms of servicing and repaying public debt and attracting borrowings.
Interest payments for a long time, and the gradual repayment of the principal amount of the debt is called debt servicing.
Excessive enthusiasm of the Government of the Russian Federation at the beginning of market reforms with loans had a negative impact on the budget, and, consequently, on the financing of sectors of the economy and the social sphere.
With a lack of tax and non-tax funds for the formation of budget revenues, the state uses its capabilities to attract additional financial resources by borrowing funds, accumulating debt, which ultimately leads to an increase in public debt.
The policy of the Russian Federation in the field of public debt. In accordance with the principles of debt policy in 2005 and 2006. The Russian Federation has been early repayment government external debt obligations. In January 2005, the balance of debt obligations to the IMF was repaid ahead of schedule in full. In June 2006, the Russian Federation fully repaid its debt to the Paris Club of Creditors.
Currently, the level of public debt remains at a safe level of less than 9% of GDP (the volume of external debt by the end of 2010 amounted to 2.8% of GDP), which ensures the stability of the budget system and contributes to strengthening the international authority of Russia as a state with a significant stock of financial and debt capital. reputed to be a bona fide borrower and committed to improving the investment climate in the country through concrete policies.
State Debt Policy of Russia for 2008-2010. did not provide for attracting financial unrelated loans in the external market.
Principles of the state debt policy of the Russian Federation:
In the field of domestic borrowing, the debt policy in 2010-2013 will proceed from the goals of developing the government securities market. The key tasks will be to increase the liquidity of the market part of the state domestic debt and maintain optimal duration and profitability in the government securities market.
During this period, a positive balance of borrowings in the domestic market is planned, which does not lead to an increase in interest rates. Borrowings in the domestic government debt market will mainly be medium- and long-term.
Restrictions on domestic borrowing, with an almost complete cessation of external borrowing, coupled with the early repayment of a significant portion of external debt from the Stabilization Fund, has led to public debt falling to around 7% of GDP, well below most developed countries and transition economies. The burden on the debt service budget has been significantly reduced.
Consideration of the state of the state debt of the Russian Federation allows us to highlight the following main points:
The reduction of the debt burden and the country's exit from the "debt trap" is possible only with a significant sustainable growth of national production and the implementation of social economic policy providing the necessary conditions for the rise of business and investment activity. Average pace GDP growth should not fall below 4% per year. The budget surplus should be directed to the planned and early repayment of the debt.
Following the results of the Toronto summit in late June 2010, the leaders of the G20 states came to a common understanding that budget deficits should be reduced by at least half by 2013, and the ratio of public debt to GDP should be stabilized by 2016 Russia also assumed such obligations.
In 2010, the sources of covering the federal budget deficit in Russia were funds reserve funds and borrowing. However, as early as next year, borrowings will become the main source of covering the deficit, which, given the continuing deficit, means a significant (more than 1.5 times) increase in debt servicing costs - approximately from 300 billion rubles. in 2010 to over 500 billion rubles. in 2013
According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, if Russian economy in the next decade will grow by 4% annually, and the federal budget deficit will be maintained at the level of 3%, then by 2020 the public debt will reach 33% of GDP against the current 10%. At the same time, interest expenses of the federal budget will grow to 3-4% of GDP at borrowing rates of 6-8%.
The need to repay the public debt requires finding additional resource revenues to the budget, and they can be obtained (except for new loans) only with the help of taxes. In addition, the repayment of debt obligations and the payment of interest on them distracts part budget revenues from productive use, reduces the possibility of increasing the production and intellectual potential of society, for which future generations are already paying. Its maintenance sometimes took almost a quarter of the budget.
Optimization of public debt management and financial assets is the goal of the Ministry of Finance of Russia. This problem remains relevant, despite the fact that in the previous period, the volume of Russia's public debt was systematically declining. Its achievement involves the solution of a number of key tasks, namely:
The Ministry of Finance of Russia manages public debt, including maintaining public debt books, developing programs for state internal and external borrowing, programs for state guarantees in the currency of the Russian Federation and in foreign currency, and also carries out a number of other procedures (budget, financial, accounting, organizational, etc. .), aimed at inefficient regulation of Russia's public debt and reducing the impact of the debt burden on the country's economy.
An important direction in improving the public debt management system of the Russian Federation is the transition to modern methods of active debt management in order to minimize the cost of servicing and the risks associated with it, to conduct an effective public debt policy and improve the debt instruments of the Russian Federation1.
If the authorities pursue a competent economic policy, which they carried out at the beginning of the second millennium, then the problem of our country's external debt in the coming years can be completely resolved.
Public debt: concept, types
The existence of public credit leads to the emergence of public debt.
Public debt is the sum of the state's debt to domestic and foreign creditors.
The total amount of public debt consists of all issued and outstanding debt obligations of the state, interest on them, including issued guarantees for loans provided to foreign borrowers.
Causes of public debt:
Chronic state budget deficit;
Exceeding the growth rate public spending over growth rates government revenue;
Discretionary fiscal policy aims to reduce tax burden without a corresponding reduction in public spending;
Extension economic function states;
Attracting funds from non-residents to support stability national currency;
The influence of political business cycles (excessive increases in government spending on the eve of elections in order to gain popularity with voters);
Militarization, warfare and others.
current debt- this is the amount of debt due in the current year, and payable during this period of interest on all loans issued to date.
Capital debt- this is total amount debt and interest that must be paid on loans.
Depending on the sphere of placement of loans, public debt can be internal or external.
domestic debt- the totality of the state's obligations to residents;
External debt- a set of obligations of the state to non-residents.
The total amount of domestic debt of the state can be divided into two parts:
1. Monetized debt - the amount of issued and outstanding debt obligations of the state, including issued guarantees for loans provided to foreign borrowers, local authorities, state enterprises.
2. Non-monetized debt - these are financial obligations not fulfilled by the state provided for by the current legislation (arrears in the payment of pensions, scholarships, wages and other types of social payments); debt on government orders, provision of services government agencies and others.
The state internal debt is guaranteed by all property that is in national ownership.
Servicing the public debt- this is a set of state measures for the placement of bonds and other securities, the repayment of loans, the payment of interest on them, the clarification and change in the terms of repayment of issued loans, the determination of the conditions and terms for the issuance of new government securities.
Servicing of the public debt is carried out by the Ministry of Finance through the banking system.
To finance the costs of placement, payment of income and repayment of government debt Ukraine a public debt service fund shall be created as part of the State budget. Funds in the amount of 50% received from the privatization of property of state enterprises are credited to this fund.
The amount of the principal amount of the public debt should not exceed 60% of the actual annual gross domestic product of Ukraine. In case of exceeding limit value debt The Cabinet of Ministers is obliged to take measures to reduce the amount of public debt to 60% or less.
The Budget Code has introduced appropriate restrictions for the subjects RF(municipalities):
1) the maximum amount of public debt of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation (municipality) should not exceed the amount of revenues of the corresponding budget, excluding financial assistance from the budgets of other levels of the budget system;
2) the maximum volume of expenses for servicing the debt of a subject of the Russian Federation (municipality) should not exceed 15% of the volume of expenses of its budget.
The representative body of government must also decide on the advisability of targeted loans for the implementation investment programs, financing social and other events. At the same time, an obligatory condition for issuing loans is the registration of the prospectus for the issue of securities in federal commission on the securities market of the Russian Federation. The issue prospectus reflects the amount of the loan, maturities, terms of circulation of securities and other provisions.
Repayment of loans is carried out at the expense of budgetary funds.
In conditions of significant public debt, the state resorts to refinancing of public debt, i.e. debt repayment by issuing new loans.
Refinancing can also be used to service external debt, provided that the country's reputation in the international financial market, as well as economic and political stability, will not be in doubt.
When servicing external and internal debt, the service ratio is determined.
For external debt, it is calculated as the ratio of all debt payments to the state's foreign exchange earnings, expressed as a percentage.
A favorable level of service is considered to be the value of the service factor at the level of 25%.
The limiting size of the state internal debt of Ukraine, its structure, sources and repayment terms are established by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine simultaneously with the approval of the State Budget of Ukraine.
Sources of external debt repayment:
Gold reserves;
Funds received from the privatization of state property;
New loans.
Stages of the public debt management process:
Raising funds;
Placement of borrowed funds;
Repayment of debt and payment of interest.
Public Debt Management Methods:
Conversion- change in the yield of the loan (usually in the direction of decreasing interest).
Consolidation- increasing the terms of previously issued loans.
Unification of loans- Consolidation of several loans into one, when bonds of previously issued several loans are exchanged for bonds of a new loan.
Bond exchange by regression ratio- several previously issued bonds are equated to one new bond.
Deferral of loan repayment- is carried out when the issue of new loans is used only to service previously issued loans. To overcome such financial situation, The government announces a delay in repayment of the loan. This method differs from consolidation in that not only maturities are postponed, but the payment of income is also stopped (during consolidation of loans, bondholders continue to receive their income).
Cancellation of debts- the state completely renounces obligations on debts, which may be due to its financial inability (bankruptcy or political motives).
The Russian Federation has a unified system of accounting and registration of state borrowings of the Russian Federation. Subjects of the Russian Federation, municipalities register their borrowings with the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation maintains state books of internal and external debt of the Russian Federation (State Debt Book of the Russian Federation).
Information on debt obligations is entered by the relevant authorized bodies into the State Debt Book of the Russian Federation, the state debt book of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation within a period not exceeding three days from the moment the corresponding obligation arose.
Information entered in the municipal debt book is subject to mandatory transfer to the body maintaining the state debt book of the relevant subject of the Russian Federation, then this information is transferred to the body maintaining the State debt book of the Russian Federation, in the manner and within the time limits established by this body.
Information on the volume of debt obligations (including guarantees) of the Russian Federation, on the date of occurrence of obligations, forms of securing obligations, on the fulfillment of these obligations in full or in part, as well as other information shall be entered into the State Debt Book of the Russian Federation. The composition, procedure and terms for submitting information are established by the Government of the Russian Federation.
The costs of placement, payment of income and repayment of debt obligations of the Russian Federation are carried out at the expense of the federal budget. Servicing of the state internal debt of the Russian Federation is carried out by the Bank of Russia and its institutions, by carrying out operations for the placement of debt obligations of the Russian Federation, their repayment and payment of income in the form of interest on them or in another form. The Bank of Russia performs the functions of a general agent (agent) for servicing the state internal debt free of charge.
Payment for the services of agents for the placement and servicing of the public debt is carried out within the limits approved by the Government of the Russian Federation, at the expense of federal budget funds allocated for servicing the public debt. Servicing of the state internal debt of the subject of the Russian Federation, municipal debt is carried out in accordance with federal laws, laws of the subject of the Russian Federation and legal acts local authorities.
Thus, the volume of the public debt of the Russian Federation in 2010 compared to 2009 increased by 40.2%, by the end of 2012 it will more than double and amount to 15.4% of GDP. The volume of public domestic debt increased in 2010 compared to 2009 by 31.2%, by the end of 2012 it will increase by 1.7 times and amount to 8.1% of GDP.
With the growth of public debt, the federal budget expenditures for servicing it (interest expenses) increase, in 2010 they were 1.5 times higher than in 2009, in 2012 - 2.8 times.
In 2012, budget allocations for servicing the state internal debt of the Russian Federation will increase by 121,396.7 million rubles compared to 2011 and amount to 314,096.7 million rubles, which is due to the need to ensure financing of the federal budget deficit through the implementation of state internal borrowings and the growth of the absolute value of the state internal debt of the Russian Federation. In 2013-2014, these budget allocations are planned in the amount of 395,766.8 million rubles and 479,420.1 million rubles, respectively.
The calculation of interest payments on the state internal debt of the Russian Federation was made on the basis of:
· the expected volume of the state internal debt of the Russian Federation on securities as of January 1, 2012 in the amount of 3,655,273.1 million rubles and the projected issue of government securities denominated in the currency of the Russian Federation in 2012 in the amount of 1,843,716.2 million rubles, in 2013 - 1,839,600.0 million rubles and in 2014 - 1,919,400.0 million rubles at nominal value;
· planned yield in 2012 - 2014 on short-term instruments up to 4.5 - 5.5% and on medium-term instruments up to 6.0 - 7.5% and long-term instruments up to 7.5 - 8.5%
In 2012-2014, the bulk of budget allocations for servicing the state domestic debt will fall on federal loan bonds with debt amortization (OFZ-AD) and federal loan bonds with a constant coupon income (OFZ-PD). In 2012, 61,557.6 million rubles will be allocated for servicing OFZ-AD, in 2013 - 58,153.9 million rubles, in 2014 - 57,202.1 million rubles. Budget allocations for OFZ-PD servicing will amount to 200,520.5 million rubles in 2012, 281,473.9 million rubles in 2013, and 371,112.6 million rubles in 2014.
The dynamics of public debt service expenditures in absolute terms and relative to GDP in 2009-2012 is shown in Table 2.
Table 2 Dynamics of public debt service expenditures in absolute terms and relative to GDP in 2009-2012
The main directions of the budget policy for 2011-2012 forecast an increase in interest expenses in 2012 to 561.0 billion rubles, which is 2.5 times more than was approved for 2009. Relative to GDP, interest expenses will increase from 0.5% in 2009 to 1% in 2012, their share in general expenses of the federal budget will grow from 2.1% to 5.8%, respectively.
Chart 4. Expenses for servicing the state debt of the Russian Federation
The process of public debt management is a set of actions related to the preparation for the issuance and placement of government debt, regulation of the government securities market, servicing and repayment of government debt, providing loans and guarantees.
Public debt management covers methods of both direct (institutional, technical, economic proper) and indirect regulation (impact on macro- or microeconomic levers of national economy management).
Public debt management in a broad sense refers to the formation of one of the directions of the state's economic policy related to its activities as a borrower. This process includes: formation of the state debt policy; determination of the main directions and goals of influencing micro- and macroeconomic indicators; establishing the possibility and expediency of financing nationwide programs from the public debt and other issues related to the strategic management of public debt; delimitation of debt.
Debt management in the narrow sense refers to a set of activities related to the issuance and placement of government debt obligations, servicing, repayment and refinancing of government debt, as well as the regulation of the government securities market.
The process of public debt management, both in a broad and narrow sense, requires a systematic approach from the state and determines the multifaceted nature of the regulation of existing debt. In turn, systematic debt management is impossible without a clear classification of debt.
Servicing the public debt is associated with the redistribution of income in the country. To pay off the debt, you can use the assets available to the state by privatizing state property. Another approach is to increase budget revenues by expanding the tax base. The burden of care is shifted to taxpayers. Central Bank loans can become another source of debt repayment. However, in the conditions of the country's main bank independent of the government, it is very difficult to use the issue to reduce debt. Servicing external debt actually means the legal export of capital, which is reflected in a separate line in balance of payments, that is, it leads to the redistribution of part of the national income through the fiscal and monetary system for the benefit of non-residents.
Financing the budget deficit from domestic sources also does not always contribute to the development of the national economy. An increase in domestic debt means an increase in the share of government borrowings in the financial market. This may lead to competition for resources in the domestic financial market, an increase in interest rates and a decrease in the capitalization of the private securities market. In addition, investments are being reduced, as they will remain unrealized investment projects with a return not exceeding the interest paid on government securities, together with a risk premium.
Expenditure on servicing the state debt of the Russian Federation in 2010 is projected at 304.0 billion US dollars. Interest payments (servicing state and municipal debt) in January 2010 amounted to 17.1 billion rubles, their specific gravity in the total amount of federal budget expenditures made was 2.6%.
Public Debt Management Issues
To solve the emerging problems of the federal budget, it is necessary to develop a strategic program for managing public debt as integral part debt of the Russian Federation. At the same time, it should be taken into account that in a developing economy, at the stage of economic growth, debt management is carried out in accordance with the growth rates of GDP, incomes of all sectors of the economy, tax base, and in certain circumstances, a relatively low real rate on debt obligations with long periods borrowing funds.
The public debt management strategy should be based on coordinating the dynamics of debt with the pace of economic growth and reducing the cost of servicing it. Compliance with these conditions, as a rule, allows, with an increase in the absolute scale of borrowing, to maintain the ratio of public debt to GDP at approximately the same level, preventing a situation in which debt begins to negatively affect the economy. The main problems considered in resolving issues of new borrowings are the effectiveness of borrowings, determining the allowable amounts and sources of their coverage, and assessing the impact of borrowing on socio-economic development.
Terms modern economy determine the need to form a special strategic program for monitoring and managing public debt, including loans from constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local governments. At the same time, monitoring of the external debt of banks and enterprises should be ensured. The complexity of the problem lies in the fact that public debt is heterogeneous, and its constituent elements need specific regulation mechanisms using various financial instruments. Many components have a high degree uncertainties and require special analysis to select the most effective regulation methods.
A strategic program for servicing and repaying the public debt should be consistent with management practices state budget in general, the size of its deficit and the regulation of the general economic situation in the country.
The debt management program should include:
ѕ balancing tax and non-tax revenues of the budget and issuing activity with the size of the public debt, its dynamics in order to stabilize and possible reduction public debt, primarily external;
- measures to restructure the public debt and cancel it by creditors;
* the possibility of refinancing the debt of the state;
ѕ decrease in the cost of servicing the public debt, taking into account the inflationary depreciation of the principal amount of the debt and the cost of servicing it;
¾ sources of currency for the repayment and servicing of external debt;
* reduction of public spending;
ѕ control over borrowings of subjects of the Russian Federation;
ѕ control over borrowings by business entities.
The participation of the Bank of Russia in servicing external debt is mainly passive in connection with the formation of foreign exchange reserves, the implementation of foreign exchange policy and policy exchange rate ruble. Ensuring the stability of the national currency is mainly implemented within the regulated foreign exchange market.
The underdevelopment of the institutional framework for state borrowing, determining to a large extent negative trends in this area, manifests itself in the form of a number of circumstances, among which is the existing system of concentrating state borrowing functions in one department, including all stages and elements of this institution. Connection in one financial center of different mechanisms and instruments financial flows with the simultaneous combination of executive and control functions, it carries the danger of serious violations in this area. Solving the problem of separating the functions of public borrowing, including all the structural elements of the process, in particular, determining the strategy of public borrowing, the efficiency and service of both external and internal debts, into an object of relatively independent management is the main task in the field of increasing the efficiency of the institution of public borrowing and preventing threats to national security.
