The topic of building a digital economy in Russia has recently become a top topic at the suggestion of the President.
This is talked about at the highest level (at a meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and Priority Projects under the President of Russia, an ambitious (?) program for digitalization of Russia until 2024 was adopted), and at the expert level (here, many knowledgeable people doubt ambitions), and at the household level ( skepticism prevails here).
Why do the seemingly obvious advantages of the “digital perspective” confuse citizens? Why does the very understanding of the term "digital economy" in Russia and in the West not coincide? And the main question remained unanswered: will hopes for digitalization save the largely archaic post-Soviet domestic basis?
The topic of the digital economy has become fashionable, but who knows how long the “digitalization of the whole country” will last in the news headlines? However, in any case, for the next three or four years, attention, finances and solutions at the highest level are guaranteed to her. So what are we going to develop?
The question is not idle: the problem is that the authorities - not only in Russia, but also in the West - themselves do not fully understand what they expect from the digitalization of their economies. But one thing is already clear for sure: it is impossible to catch up and overtake “in terms of indicators” in this race.
Why has there been such an interest in this topic? Has Russia become a technologically advanced and innovative country? Probably, this should have been the case, since the president and the prime minister, having forgotten about modernization, innovation and other words, hoisted a new banner during the election race - they are building a digital economy!
N. Negroponte
In 1995, the American computer scientist Nicholas Negroponte (University of Massachusetts) coined the term "digital economy" (Negroponte N. Being Digital / N. Negroponte. - NY: Knopf, 1995.).
This concept is associated with the intensive development of information and communication technologies (ICT), the beginning of the process of informatization of the second generation, which, according to many, is the basis of the emerging VI technological order.
The scheme was prepared by the organizers of the Technoprom-2013 forum
Now this term is used all over the world, it has come into use by politicians, entrepreneurs, and journalists.
The digital economy is not an idea born in the minds of Russian officials. It was announced by the World Bank in 2016 in the World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends. True, there the concept of the digital economy and the priority steps in this direction differed from what the Government of the Russian Federation understands by this.
If a The World Bank pointed to such signs of digitalization in Russia as open data, the e-government system, the work of domestic digital giants such as Yandex, Kaspersky, online ordering services, reducing the period for registering property rights using information technology to 10 days, then in The Government of the Russian Federation did not stop at this final state program. Considering that the term itself is vague, the digital economy will obviously have Russian specifics.
To begin with, it is worth remembering the definition of the usual "analogue" economy- this is economic activity society, as well as the totality of relations that develop in the system of production, distribution, exchange and consumption.
The use of a computer, the Internet, mobile phones can already be considered "consumption", in this case, the digital economy can be represented as that part of economic relations that is mediated by the Internet, cellular communications, ICT.
Doctor economic sciences, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences - Vladimir Ivanov gives the broadest definition:
“The digital economy is a virtual environment that complements our reality.”
Recently, a new interpretation has emerged: the digital economy as an addition to the analog economy, which can push the development of real sectors. The turn is amusing: a couple of years ago, the West tried by all means to “disperse” the digital segment so that it would become comparable in volume to the real economy, but now many experts note its stagnation that has begun in terms of reduced growth rates.
“Great Britain is one of the leaders in the digital economy, but last year this sector “weighed” only 12 percent of their GDP,” Jomart Aliyev, chairman of the Moscow International Higher School of Business MIRBIS, explained to Ogonyok. “And I have no data that this the figure is cleared of material goods supplied in this segment of the economy. In any case, 12 percent is not much.”
Jomart Aliyev is convinced that the level of development of the digital economy "directly correlates with the level of development of the material economy: where it is high in real life, the development of the digital segment is most appropriate there."
“For me, the digital economy does not exist as an independent one: there is a digital segment of the real economy,” says Jomart Aliyev. People are material beings that do not live in a virtual world. So, the existence of digital contracts for the supply of oil is still based on the fact that oil is needed for sale in physical terms. Like food, clothes, etc. Of course, there are already a certain number of people (such as gamers) who spend more on “life in digital” than on “life in real life”, but they are few and do not set trends in the economy.”
The main conclusion: the digital economy is not a recipe for all troubles and “a well-developed digital segment of the economy is just support for the economy as such.
Scientists have already determined that the more processes in production are digitized, the more active impetus to development is received by analog types of services and production. Moreover, when the effect of digitalization ends (and this inevitably happens), the activation of the analog economy is indispensable. In Russia, it seems that they decided not to consider digital and analog in conjunction at all, which is at least strange.
So, the Russian economy will not be raw or industrial, but digital. The government of the Russian Federation surprised new program, which contains mainly sectoral goals: to create at least 10 high-tech IT enterprises, 10 "industrial digital platforms for the main sectors of the economy" (education, healthcare, etc.), 500 small and medium enterprises in the field of digital technologies.
And also ensure the annual graduation of 120 thousand certified IT specialists, provide 97 percent of Russian households with broadband Internet access at a speed of at least 100 Mbps (in 2016, the average speed was 12 Mbps).
And make sure that 95 percent of network traffic goes through domestic networks.
Establish stable 5G coverage in all million-plus cities and ensure that Russia's share in the global market for information storage and processing services is 10 percent (now less than 1 percent). All this by 2024 with annual funding of 100 billion rubles from the state budget.
The result of the implementation of the program should be a reduction in the share of foreign computer and telecommunications equipment purchased by government agencies, up to 50 percent, and software - up to 10 percent.
The goals outlined by the program clearly indicate that the government expects to receive from digitalization, first of all, a solution to the issue of national security. Meanwhile, experts warned against this mistake last fall-winter. World Bank, who stressed that digitalization is a broader concept than the development of information and computer technologies (ICT). They can be understood - to be afraid of our independence as the devil incense. But even here it seems that they do not yet understand the full breadth of digitalization technologies, but in vain.
As you can see, the bet is made, in fact, on achieving certain digital indicators, and not on creating an environment. Let's explain. Broadband Internet, number of programmers and data transfer speed - rather specifications. They are certainly needed, but they do not solve the main problem. And it is that in Russia the most serious lag behind the countries that are leaders in the digitalization of this area is in the field of management.
Western experts - whether they are from McKinsey or the World Bank - are unanimous that digital technologies do not work without adjusting the relationship between the subjects of the economy and management in general.
The digital revolution died down in the West 10-15 years ago: there, business was the first and very actively mastered new means of communication, digitized everything that was possible, got the authorities to legislate the electronic signature, established digital communications not only within the business community, but also state, and government departments have gradually integrated their information systems.
marginal notes
The authors of the WB report only casually notice that in the economically developed countries The contribution of ICT to raising economic growth rates has so far been extremely modest. According to them, in the period 1995-99, the contribution of the entire digital economy to the economic growth of developed countries was equivalent to 3% of GDP; in the period 2005-2009 - 1.0%; in the period 2010-2014 - 1.8%.
However, they immediately acknowledge that the bulk of this contribution comes from the growth in the capitalization of companies in the ICT sector. Approximately 20% of all GDP growth driven by the digital economy in the 20-year period 1995-2014 was provided by industries and companies that were ICT consumers.
It turns out, that the main dividends from the digital economy are received not by society, but by IT companies. First of all, American IT companies.
According to the World Bank, 8 of the 14 largest high-tech companies in the world are located in the United States. And the contribution of the digital economy to US GDP, estimated at 7% of GDP, is the total capitalization of the promoted giants of the ICT sector. By the way, we remember the bubble that was inflated in 1999-2000 on the American stock exchange NASDAQ, where securities of high-tech companies were traded.
Then there was a lot of talk about the fact that “a new era is coming”, the era of high technologies and communications. It was then that the term "digital economy" went beyond the walls of Harvard and Massachusetts universities to enter the everyday life of American stock speculators and associated journalists.
We also remember that back in the 1960s and 1970s, American sociologists L. Thurow, E. Toffler, and D. Bell began to introduce the term “post-industrial society” into circulation and sum up their theories under it. So: at the turn of two centuries, the armchair, semi-utopian idea of a “post-industrial society” was concretely embodied in the concept of a “digital economy”.
The stock quotes of many IT companies in 2000 fell to a level below nowhere. Many then "ate" this very hi-tech. A few years later, speculators again began to inflate bubbles, but this time in the market mortgage lending and mortgage papers. It ended with the most severe financial crisis of 2007-2009.
According to experts, today we are witnessing a new round of stock exchange speculative game, the participants of which began to recklessly play the already forgotten card of the digital economy.
It would be a mistake to assume that Russia is 10 years behind the West in terms of the pace of digitalization: in some industries and sectors, it runs almost on a par with the leaders, for example, in the field of telecommunications and the distribution of broadband Internet, not to mention the development of the notorious 5G standard or in the scope of Internet banking.
It is another matter that the approaches of the authorities to solving a technological problem are the approaches of yesterday: to create a state corporation or a special project, or a high-tech platform is certainly under the control of authorities. Such institutions are emerging, but for some reason, neither Rosnano, nor the National Technological Initiative, nor Skolkovo have yet produced breakthrough projects and ideas.
If we study the experience of the West in this matter, then we can safely say: they won’t give it - for several years now, small teams of talented like-minded people have been breakthrough there, capable of making a breakthrough and opening a new horizon with meager means. That is why the West, on a new round of digitalization, relies on human capital— hence the attention to digital healthcare, the development of all types of services, and education.
For the appearance of such teams, an environment is needed, which, alas, does not exist in Russia yet. And it is worth understanding: it cannot be created by the positions prescribed in the program. Another attempt to catch up with the West in number (of IT companies, the speed of information transfer, an increase in the staff of programmers, etc.) will leave Russian economy in the usual position - always lagging behind. To overcome the gap, we need not a “rolling plan” to fixed indicators on the shaft, but a different approach to the problem of numbers, for unclear reasons not taken into account— the relationship between the digital economy and the real one.
But that's another story. And sad. The real economy in Russia is as follows. Labor productivity is 3.5-4 times lower than in developed countries. According to this indicator, in 2016 we ranked 32nd among OECD countries. The degree of depreciation of fixed assets over the past three years is 48-49 percent, these are the highest figures since 1990 (data from the SSC).
Completely depreciated fixed assets of enterprises at the end of 2015 - 15.8 percent. The largest wear and tear is at enterprises producing machinery and equipment (24 percent). Of the 75.3 million people working in the real sector, more than 20 million are over 50…
Older people may know how to handle a computer. But digitalization is not only about ICT…
In general, to paraphrase the hero of the famous film, according to this program, there will no longer be “one continuous television”, but “one continuous computer”. But will it improve the lives of our citizens?
What do experts think about this?
“This will not only not raise the standard of living of the people, but will also finish off the remnants of industry! - the head of the Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development is sure Yuri Krupnov. — The program prioritizes certain consumer needs, smartphones and iPhones, without offering to build airplanes, turbines, ships, and so on. In that sense, this is an outstanding anti-industrial program!”
Krupnov states that the entire program is based on Western theses for the development of communications and Internet technologies 30 years ago:
“Our government just sat down and rewrote what it could. But the main thing is not this, but the fact that all this exists in the West in a different industrial system, where there are airbuses and so on. And smartphones and mobile phones are one hundredth of a percent. We have no planes, no machine tools, nothing! And instead of increasing our production, we fall into some childish fantasies about high-speed Internet and mobile phones. This is a question of the colossal inadequacy of the authors of the program!”
The subway train must arrive on time. And is it controlled by a machinist or artificial intelligence - is it really that important? A doctor should be able to treat, a teacher should be able to teach, not use a computer.
“Approximately the same thing was already promised to us many years ago by Anatoly Chubais - nanotechnology and other breakthroughs. But in the end, one “virtual reality” turned out, and billions of budget money fell into it, ”recalls the sociologist Roman Zavarishyn.
According to statistics, Russians eat meat, vegetables and fruits and drink less milk than Westerners. They are treated worse, they spend less on clothes, they travel less often. Every fifth Russian complains that he does not have enough money for food. And almost no one complained during opinion polls that he lacks artificial intelligence, virtual reality, 5G Internet and a robot - a tram driver.
“Our native government already lives completely in virtual reality,” Zavarishin comments.
And it's hard to disagree with that.
Indeed, if you believe the statistics published in the government program itself, things are going well with digital technologies in Russia without a program. Thus, for every hundred people we have 160 mobile phones, 71.3% of the population use mobile access to the Internet. The average network speed in Russia is 12.2 Mbps, and according to this indicator, Russia is on the same level with France, Italy and Greece!
So what's the problem? Should the government be concerned about this? Isn't it better to think about production, agriculture, and not swim in "virtual reality"?
No, Dmitry Medvedev is sure that the happiness of the people depends entirely on the transfer of Russia to the "figure". A “digital environment” should be formed in Russia, which is now at the stage of development, the prime minister said:
“This movement needs to be seriously accelerated, the existing obstacles for the successful development of digital infrastructure will have to be removed.”
Economists, meanwhile, are surprised: yes, there are small countries, offshores, the basis of the economy of which is financial services, remote registration of legal entities and other “numbers”. In principle, such an economy can be called digital. But there are no large countries with the dominance of electronic products in the economy in the world!
“In the field of digital technologies, we are already not in last place,” comments the head of the Rossiyskoye Pravo agency. Alexey Samokhvalov. Why is this program needed? With us, you can pay for most services via the Internet - buy air tickets, pay for utilities, etc. Banks provide loans using Internet banking, etc.”
BUT Alexey Voronin, co-founder investment fund ICO Lab doesn't understand:
“Does it make sense to digitize all paper documents? This is the weakest point in the program - the direction of "State regulation".
However, with state regulation in Russia, things are not only in the program, but in general, the situation is rather bad. But it's good - with virtual reality.
IAC
***
The end follows.
The topic of building a digital economy in Russia has recently become a top topic at the suggestion of the President.
This is talked about at the highest level (at a meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and Priority Projects under the President of Russia, an ambitious (?) program for digitalization of Russia until 2024 was adopted), and at the expert level (here, many knowledgeable people doubt ambitions), and at the household level ( skepticism prevails here).
Why do the seemingly obvious advantages of the “digital perspective” confuse citizens? Why does the very understanding of the term "digital economy" in Russia and in the West not coincide? And the main question remained unanswered: will hopes for digitalization save the largely archaic post-Soviet domestic basis?
The topic of the digital economy has become fashionable, but who knows how long the “digitalization of the whole country” will last in the news headlines? However, in any case, for the next three or four years, attention, finances and solutions at the highest level are guaranteed to her. So what are we going to develop?
The question is not idle: the problem is that the authorities - not only in Russia, but also in the West - themselves do not fully understand what they expect from the digitalization of their economies. But one thing is already clear for sure: it is impossible to catch up and overtake “in terms of indicators” in this race.
Why has there been such an interest in this topic? Has Russia become a technologically advanced and innovative country? Probably, this should have been the case, since the president and the prime minister, having forgotten about modernization, innovation and other words, hoisted a new banner during the election race - they are building a digital economy!
N. Negroponte
In 1995, the American computer scientist Nicholas Negroponte (University of Massachusetts) coined the term "digital economy" (Negroponte N. Being Digital / N. Negroponte. - NY: Knopf, 1995.).
This concept is associated with the intensive development of information and communication technologies (ICT), the beginning of the process of informatization of the second generation, which, according to many, is the basis of the emerging VI technological order.
The scheme was prepared by the organizers of the Technoprom-2013 forum
Now this term is used all over the world, it has come into use by politicians, entrepreneurs, and journalists.
The digital economy is not an idea born in the minds of Russian officials. It was announced by the World Bank in 2016 in the World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends. True, there the concept of the digital economy and the priority steps in this direction differed from what the Government of the Russian Federation understands by this.
If the World Bank pointed to such signs of digitalization in Russia as open data, the e-government system, the work of domestic digital giants such as Yandex, Kaspersky, online ordering services, reducing the period for registering property rights using information technology to 10 days , then the Government of the Russian Federation did not stop at this in the final state program. Considering that the term itself is vague, the digital economy will obviously have Russian specifics.
To begin with, it is worth remembering the definition of the usual "analogue" economy- this is the economic activity of society, as well as the totality of relations that develop in the system of production, distribution, exchange and consumption.
The use of a computer, the Internet, mobile phones can already be considered "consumption", in this case, the digital economy can be represented as that part of economic relations that is mediated by the Internet, cellular communications, ICT.
Doctor of Economic Sciences, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences - Vladimir Ivanov gives the broadest definition:
“The digital economy is a virtual environment that complements our reality.”
Recently, a new interpretation has emerged: the digital economy as an addition to the analog economy, which can push the development of real sectors. The turn is amusing: a couple of years ago, the West tried by all means to “disperse” the digital segment so that it would become comparable in volume to the real economy, but now many experts note its stagnation that has begun in terms of reduced growth rates.
“Great Britain is one of the leaders in the digital economy, but last year this sector “weighed” only 12 percent of their GDP,” Jomart Aliyev, chairman of the Moscow International Higher School of Business MIRBIS, explained to Ogonyok. “And I have no data that this the figure is cleared of material goods supplied in this segment of the economy. In any case, 12 percent is not much.”
Jomart Aliyev is convinced that the level of development of the digital economy "directly correlates with the level of development of the material economy: where it is high in real life, the development of the digital segment is most appropriate there."
“For me, the digital economy does not exist as an independent one: there is a digital segment of the real economy,” says Jomart Aliyev. People are material beings that do not live in a virtual world. So, the existence of digital contracts for the supply of oil is still based on the fact that oil is needed for sale in physical terms. Like food, clothes, etc. Of course, there are already a certain number of people (such as gamers) who spend more on “life in digital” than on “life in real life”, but they are few and do not set trends in the economy.”
The main conclusion: the digital economy is not a recipe for all troubles and “a well-developed digital segment of the economy is just support for the economy as such.
Scientists have already determined that the more processes in production are digitized, the more active impetus to development is received by analog types of services and production. Moreover, when the effect of digitalization ends (and this inevitably happens), the activation of the analog economy is indispensable. In Russia, it seems that they decided not to consider digital and analog in conjunction at all, which is at least strange.
So, the Russian economy will not be raw or industrial, but digital. The government of the Russian Federation surprised with a new program that contains mainly sectoral goals: to create at least 10 high-tech IT enterprises, 10 “industrial digital platforms for the main sectors of the economy” (education, healthcare, etc.), 500 small and medium enterprises in the field of digital technologies .
And also ensure the annual graduation of 120 thousand certified IT specialists, provide 97 percent of Russian households with broadband Internet access at a speed of at least 100 Mbps (in 2016, the average speed was 12 Mbps).
And make sure that 95 percent of network traffic goes through domestic networks.
Establish stable 5G coverage in all million-plus cities and ensure that Russia's share in the global market for information storage and processing services is 10 percent (now less than 1 percent). All this by 2024 with annual funding of 100 billion rubles from the state budget.
The result of the implementation of the program should be a reduction in the share of foreign computer and telecommunications equipment purchased by government agencies, up to 50 percent, and software - up to 10 percent.
The goals outlined by the program clearly indicate that the government expects to receive from digitalization, first of all, a solution to the issue of national security. Meanwhile, it was precisely this mistake that experts from the World Bank warned against this mistake last autumn and winter, emphasizing that digitalization is a broader concept than the development of information and computer technologies (ICT). They can be understood - to be afraid of our independence as the devil incense. But even here it seems that they do not yet understand the full breadth of digitalization technologies, but in vain.
As you can see, the bet is made, in fact, on achieving certain digital indicators, and not on creating an environment. Let's explain. Broadband Internet, the number of programmers and the data transfer speed are more technical conditions. They are certainly needed, but they do not solve the main problem. And it is that in Russia the most serious lag behind the countries that are leaders in the digitalization of this area is in the field of management.
Western experts - whether they are from McKinsey or the World Bank - are unanimous that digital technologies do not work without adjusting the relationship between the subjects of the economy and management in general.
The digital revolution died down in the West 10-15 years ago: there, business was the first and very actively mastered new means of communication, digitized everything that was possible, got the authorities to legislate the electronic signature, established digital communications not only within the business community, but also state, and government departments have gradually integrated their information systems.
marginal notes
The authors of the WB report only casually notice that in economically developed countries, the contribution of ICT to increasing economic growth rates is still extremely modest. According to them, in the period 1995-99, the contribution of the entire digital economy to the economic growth of developed countries was equivalent to 3% of GDP; in the period 2005-2009 - 1.0%; in the period 2010-2014 - 1.8%.
However, they immediately acknowledge that the bulk of this contribution comes from the growth in the capitalization of companies in the ICT sector. Approximately 20% of all GDP growth driven by the digital economy in the 20-year period 1995-2014 was provided by industries and companies that were ICT consumers.
It turns out, that the main dividends from the digital economy are received not by society, but by IT companies. First of all, American IT companies.
According to the World Bank, 8 of the 14 largest high-tech companies in the world are located in the United States. And the contribution of the digital economy to US GDP, estimated at 7% of GDP, is the total capitalization of the promoted giants of the ICT sector. By the way, we remember the bubble that was inflated in 1999-2000 on the American stock exchange NASDAQ, where securities of high-tech companies were traded.
Then there was a lot of talk about the fact that “a new era is coming”, the era of high technologies and communications. It was then that the term "digital economy" went beyond the walls of Harvard and Massachusetts universities to enter the everyday life of American stock speculators and journalists associated with them.
We also remember that back in the 1960s and 1970s, American sociologists L. Thurow, E. Toffler, and D. Bell began to introduce the term “post-industrial society” into circulation and sum up their theories under it. So: at the turn of two centuries, the armchair, semi-utopian idea of a “post-industrial society” was concretely embodied in the concept of a “digital economy”.
The stock quotes of many IT companies in 2000 fell to a level below nowhere. Many then "ate" this very hi-tech. A few years later, speculators again began to inflate bubbles, but this time in the mortgage lending and mortgage securities market. It ended with the most severe financial crisis of 2007-2009.
According to experts, today we are witnessing a new round of stock exchange speculative game, the participants of which began to recklessly play the already forgotten card of the digital economy.
It would be a mistake to assume that Russia is 10 years behind the West in terms of the pace of digitalization: in some industries and sectors, it runs almost on a par with the leaders, for example, in the field of telecommunications and the distribution of broadband Internet, not to mention the development of the notorious 5G standard or in the scope of Internet banking.
It is another matter that the approaches of the authorities to solving a technological problem are the approaches of yesterday: to create a state corporation or a special project, or a high-tech platform is certainly under the control of authorities. Such institutions are emerging, but for some reason, neither Rosnano, nor the National Technological Initiative, nor Skolkovo have yet produced breakthrough projects and ideas.
If we study the experience of the West in this matter, then we can safely say: they won’t give it - for several years now, small teams of talented like-minded people have been breakthrough there, capable of making a breakthrough and opening a new horizon with meager means. That is why the West, on a new round of digitalization, relies on human capital - hence the attention to digital healthcare, the development of all types of services, and education.
For the appearance of such teams, an environment is needed, which, alas, does not exist in Russia yet. And it is worth understanding: it cannot be created by the positions prescribed in the program. Another attempt to catch up with the West in numbers (of IT companies, the speed of information transfer, an increase in the staff of programmers, etc.) will leave the Russian economy in its usual position - always lagging behind. To overcome the gap, we need not a “rolling plan” to fixed indicators on the shaft, but a different approach to the problem of numbers, for unclear reasons not taken into account— the relationship between the digital economy and the real one.
But that's another story. And sad. The real economy in Russia is as follows. Labor productivity is 3.5-4 times lower than in developed countries. According to this indicator, in 2016 we ranked 32nd among OECD countries. The degree of depreciation of fixed assets over the past three years is 48-49 percent, these are the highest figures since 1990 (data from the SSC).
Completely depreciated fixed assets of enterprises at the end of 2015 - 15.8 percent. The largest wear and tear is at enterprises producing machinery and equipment (24 percent). Of the 75.3 million people working in the real sector, more than 20 million are over 50…
Older people may know how to handle a computer. But digitalization is not only about ICT…
In general, to paraphrase the hero of the famous film, according to this program, there will no longer be “one continuous television”, but “one continuous computer”. But will it improve the lives of our citizens?
What do experts think about this?
“This will not only not raise the standard of living of the people, but will also finish off the remnants of industry! - the head of the Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development is sure Yuri Krupnov. — The program prioritizes certain consumer needs, smartphones and iPhones, without offering to build airplanes, turbines, ships, and so on. In that sense, this is an outstanding anti-industrial program!”
Krupnov states that the entire program is based on Western theses for the development of communications and Internet technologies 30 years ago:
“Our government just sat down and rewrote what it could. But the main thing is not this, but the fact that all this exists in the West in a different industrial system, where there are airbuses and so on. And smartphones and mobile phones are one hundredth of a percent. We have no planes, no machine tools, nothing! And instead of increasing our production, we fall into some childish fantasies about high-speed Internet and mobile phones. This is a question of the colossal inadequacy of the authors of the program!”
The subway train must arrive on time. And is it controlled by a machinist or artificial intelligence - is it really that important? A doctor should be able to treat, a teacher should be able to teach, not use a computer.
“Approximately the same thing was already promised to us many years ago by Anatoly Chubais - nanotechnology and other breakthroughs. But in the end, one “virtual reality” turned out, and billions of budget money fell into it, ”recalls the sociologist Roman Zavarishyn.
According to statistics, Russians eat meat, vegetables and fruits and drink less milk than Westerners. They are treated worse, they spend less on clothes, they travel less often. Every fifth Russian complains that he does not have enough money for food. And almost no one complained during opinion polls that he lacks artificial intelligence, virtual reality, 5G Internet and a robot - a tram driver.
“Our native government already lives completely in virtual reality,” Zavarishin comments.
And it's hard to disagree with that.
Indeed, if you believe the statistics published in the government program itself, things are going well with digital technologies in Russia without a program. Thus, for every hundred people we have 160 mobile phones, 71.3% of the population use mobile access to the Internet. The average network speed in Russia is 12.2 Mbps, and according to this indicator, Russia is on the same level with France, Italy and Greece!
So what's the problem? Should the government be concerned about this? Isn't it better to think about production, agriculture, and not swim in "virtual reality"?
No, Dmitry Medvedev is sure that the happiness of the people depends entirely on the transfer of Russia to the "figure". A “digital environment” should be formed in Russia, which is now at the stage of development, the prime minister said:
“This movement needs to be seriously accelerated, the existing obstacles for the successful development of digital infrastructure will have to be removed.”
Economists, meanwhile, are surprised: yes, there are small countries, offshores, the basis of the economy of which is financial services, remote registration of legal entities and other “numbers”. In principle, such an economy can be called digital. But there are no large countries with the dominance of electronic products in the economy in the world!
“In the field of digital technologies, we are already not in last place,” comments the head of the Rossiyskoye Pravo agency. Alexey Samokhvalov. Why is this program needed? With us, you can pay for most services via the Internet - buy air tickets, pay for utilities, etc. Banks provide loans using Internet banking, etc.”
BUT Alexey Voronin, co-founder of the investment fund ICO Lab, does not understand:
“Does it make sense to digitize all paper documents? This is the weakest point in the program - the direction of "State regulation".
However, with state regulation in Russia, things are not only in the program, but in general, the situation is rather bad. But it's good - with virtual reality.
IAC
***
The end follows.
The text of the work is placed without images and formulas.
The full version of the work is available in the "Job Files" tab in PDF format
Introduction.
In the second half of the 20th century, humanity entered an era of global change, it moved to its next stage of development - the information society. Today, information is a key factor in the economy as a resource, service, product, source of added value and employment. Against the background of the penetration and development of information processes in the sectors of the economy, such forms of doing business as online stores, Internet banks, payment systems are gradually beginning to develop, new types of banknotes (virtual currencies) are emerging, an entire branch of the economy is being built - the "digital economy" . An extended approach to this concept determines that the digital economy is an economic production using digital technologies. That is, the digital economy (electronic economy) is an economic activity built on the basis of e-commerce, as well as electronic money exchange. As a rule, these terms mean the work electronic services, focused on the sale of electronic goods and services, often with the exchange of electronic money between participants in electronic transactions.
The purpose of the study is to understand the concept of the digital economy, consider it with examples from different countries and identify more rational methods in the development of the digital economy.
The aim of the study is to study and analyze the available data on the digital economy, which will help to consider in more detail the role of the digital economy in the modern world.
Digital economy. Digital economy concept.
The first concepts, as well as the concept of the modern digital economy, appeared at the end of the last century. In 1995, the American computer scientist Nicholas Negroponte presented it in the form of a transition from the movement of atoms to the movements of bits. N. Negroponte said that material substances, considered in the form of raw materials and products, have their drawbacks, such as: the physical weight of the product, the need for resources for its production, the use of space for its storage, logistics costs and problems associated with the transportation of goods . According to computer scientists, the advantages of the digital economy as a “new” type of economy could be: the absence of the physical weight of products replaced by information volume, lower resource costs for the production of electronic goods, several times smaller area occupied by products (usually electronic media), as well as instant global movement of goods via the Internet.
Stages of development of the digital economy.
The modern e-economy is a product of the development of the information society over the past thirty to thirty-five years. Years of development are divided into stages (Table 1).
The first stage in the development of the digital economy was the emergence of the global computer network Internet. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the network has been constantly growing, increasing the number of connected users. The Internet was originally used to transmit Email, but, expanding, the network acquired more and more data transmission capabilities. This trend could not but affect the existing sectors of the economy, and in 1994 the first online store was opened. This was the beginning of the development of electronic commerce (electronic commerce) in the world. From that moment on, big business began to invest in the development of e-commerce. In parallel, in October 1994, the American bank Stanford Federal Credit Union launched the world's first Internet banking system that allows you to pay bills for utilities, Internet, phone, make payments on loans and make transfers to third parties without leaving your personal computer. The emergence of online stores and Internet banking systems served as the transition of the digital economy to the next stage of development.
Table 1. Stages of development of the digital economy
The second stage in the development of the digital economy was the mass duplication of the existing 4 economic entities (firms, shops, retail chains, banks) into the virtual world. The main process of this stage in the development of the digital economy is the process of creating electronic forms of business by business entities. Due to free access to Internet technology, more and more new forms of economic activity open their "online" representative offices, thereby obtaining additional sales of their products, while increasing their profits. The electronic component begins to appear en masse in almost all major forms of economic activity. Due to free access to Internet technology, more and more new forms of economic activity open their "online" representative offices, thereby obtaining additional sales of their products, while increasing their profits. There are virtual banks, shops, offices, main feature which become the absence of a physical separation.
At the third stage, virtual goods and electronic money appear. Virtual goods are goods that can be purchased in the online store in the form of files, for example, these are various software, e-books, computer games, etc. The increase in sales volumes in the electronic economy led to the emergence of electronic money. Electronic money is understood as storage and transfer systems, both traditional currencies and non-state private currencies. And thus, the digital economy received its own monetary system, different from the real economy, which made it possible to sharply accelerate its growth rates.
Distinctive features of the digital economy.
The digital economy has distinctive features from the real economy:
Virtuality of the digital economy. The digital economy can exist only in the virtual world, representing a set of electrical signals and data stored on various media.
Dependence on telecommunications networks and computer technology. This difference is the key between the digital economy and the real one. With the disappearance of telecommunications networks and computer technology, the digital economy becomes impossible, since all forms of virtual economic activity are built on their basis.
Direct interaction between producers and consumers. The development of information and communication technologies makes it possible to "dock" the manufacturer with each end user. It turns out that it is possible to shorten long chains of intermediaries, including institutional ones.
Personification. The digital economy allows you to produce goods and provide services that meet the requirements and needs not of the average consumer, but of each specific client.
High growth rates. Thanks to the Internet, goods and services have become more accessible. This led to the demand for products and the growth of the development of the digital economy.
Virtual goods and electronic money. They are a unique feature of the digital economy because they cannot exist in the real economy.
There are three basic components of the digital economy:
infrastructure, including hardware, software, telecommunications, etc.
electronic business transactions covering a business process implemented through computer networks within the framework of virtual interactions between the subjects of the virtual market.
e-commerce, which involves the delivery of goods via the Internet and is currently the largest segment of the digital economy.
In accordance with these components, the following indicators are used to track the process of formation of the digital economy: e-commerce turnover; the number of online stores; the number of people using computers; the number of users with access to the Internet; the level of computer skills of the population; volume of investments in telecommunications, etc.
Branches of the digital economy.
The digital economy is a complex structured object of study. Currently, the following branches of the digital economy are distinguished:
E-commerce is a new type of non-store trading, which is carried out via the Internet in virtual stores. Here the buyer communicates with the seller using a computer and can choose a product from the available catalogs. Almost any product can be the subject of electronic commerce - a product, a service, real estate, a banking product, etc. Today, the main goods purchased via the Internet are food products, industrial products, information products. For the buyer, the value of e-commerce lies in saving time searching for and buying the right product, for the seller - in the potential opportunity to cover as many buyers as possible with their trade.
Electronic money is virtual money.
Electronic marketing - a set of marketing activities of a company associated with the use of electronic means. The object of marketing activity is information-analytical and expert research activities of an enterprise (organization, company) using network information systems and technologies for: choosing a competitive position in this market; determining strategies for promoting and distributing goods; the choice of advertising and pricing policy, taking into account the totality of factors of the external and internal environment in conditions of risk and uncertainty. The subject is the activity of a particular owner.
Electronic banking - provision technologies banking services on the basis of orders transmitted by the client remotely (that is, without his visit to the bank), most often using computer and telephone networks.
Electronic insurance services - insurance services that can be ordered via the Internet.
There are two approaches to building a digital economy: planned and market. At the moment, all the strategies of countries in the development of the digital economy are a combination of these two approaches. Market Approach to building a digital economy suggests that the state creates optimal conditions, primarily a favorable environment for the functioning of the digital economy, which stimulates business to move into this new sector. Planned approach to building a digital economy involves the phased development of infrastructure under the leadership of the state and the targeted "filling" of the relevant sector with various economic entities.
Digitalization of the economy in the countries of the world.
Many developed countries, realizing the inevitability of the upcoming changes, have begun a conscious movement towards the development of the digital economy. The United States and China were the first to take such a course, which are considered the informal leaders of the digital race today. Following them, the corresponding programs were adopted by England, countries European Union, Australia, and others.
Many digital economy programs in different countries (USA, Austria, Australia, England, etc.) focus on social areas, such as "digital medicine" 1 and "smart city" 2 and complexity.
Consider the digital economy on the example of the United States and China. These countries have chosen different ways of digitalizing the economy: the United States declares a market path, while China prefers a planned one.
The US, which is very advanced in terms of a favorable business and innovation environment, has the most developed IT sector. The strategy for the development of the US digital economy includes 4 main points:
creation of conditions for the development of the digital economy, that is, the regulatory framework is improving.
the emergence of new hardware and software systems 3 of the digital economy in the most advanced industries;
competition among software and hardware systems and their gradual integration;
replication of the most successful solutions throughout the economy.
This strategy appears to be the best for the US. It allows the country to have a significant economic and technological advantage over the rest of the world, while using minimal costs from the US point of view. Also, thanks to her, the United States can rely on high-tech transnational corporations such as Google, FaceBook, Amazon, Intel and others. However, this strategy also has obvious drawbacks, the main of which is the duration of the process of forming a “mature” digital economy.
At present, China has peculiar advantages and favorable conditions in the development of the digital economy. This country has chosen a planned path for the development of the digital economy. The strategy declared by China contains two almost unrelated directions:
digitalization of production through the introduction of the industrial Internet of things;
using the possibilities of the Internet for further expansion of sales markets.
The main components of the planned path for the development of China's digital economy are: total digitalization of production and logistics; development of a regulatory framework; digitalization of control systems, creation of digital platforms 4 ; integration of digital platforms and ecosystems into a single space.
The implementation of such a program will certainly bear fruit, such as minimum terms building a technological base. A significant disadvantage is the high financial costs.
Development of the digital economy in Russia.
The modernization of traditional manufacturing and service industries, the organization of trade and procurement procedures, related financial and logistics operations, the change in the structure of consumption against the background of the end-to-end penetration of information technologies and the digitalization of economic processes create the basis for the formation of new markets and new conditions for the functioning of the market, as well as new approaches to analytics, forecasting and management decision making. Formed as a result of the modernization of the economy, "big data", along with technologies for their analysis, are becoming one of the leading assets of the state, business and civil society. At the same time, the absence physical boundaries in the digital space provides access to a significant array of such data to numerous participants in the global economic space. The development of national programs for the development of a new generation economy, including the development and implementation of technologies, the analysis of "big data" and forecasting, the introduction of new methods of management, is becoming a task of strategic importance not only in the context of the socio-economic well-being of states, but also as a condition for maintaining sovereignty against the backdrop of globalization and implementation of digital development programs by other participants in the world market.
Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 9, 2017 N 203 "On the Strategy for the Development of the Information Society in Russian Federation for 2017 - 2030" declares that the development of the digital economy is a strategically important issue for Russia as a whole, which determines its competitiveness on the world stage.
aim national program development of the digital economy is the creation in Russia of favorable organizational and regulatory conditions for the effective development of digital economy institutions with the participation of the state, the national business community and civil society and ensuring rapid growth national economy due to a qualitative change in the structure and management system of national economic assets, achieving the effect of the "Russian economic miracle" in the context of the formation of a global digital ecosystem.
The main objectives of the program:
Ensuring the technological leadership of the country in the conditions of the formation of a global digital space;
Formation of a qualitatively new structure of economic assets that meet the economic priorities of the digital economy;
Formation of approaches to the organization of manufacturing industries, the trade sector, the service sector, taking into account the achievements of the digital economy and effective in the conditions of the formation and development of the global digital space;
Formation of the principles of effective management of the formed and improvement of the management of existing economic assets (resources);
Creating conditions for the active participation of the national business community, including in the MSME sector, and the civil population in shaping the digital economy space by creating attractive organizational and regulatory conditions and a space of trust in the digital environment;
Creation of conditions for improving the quality of life of the population by changing the structure and quality of social services and creating new opportunities for entrepreneurial and labor activities;
Ensuring the security and sovereignty of the national space of the digital economy;
Ensuring effective participation of the country in the processes of formation of the global ecosystem of the digital economy and the global digital space.
For the development of the digital economy in Russia, the most rational step seems to be the creation of a number of industrial digital platforms under the leadership of relevant ministries or state corporations, which will focus efforts on key areas: transport, telecommunications, energy, data processing. Such platforms will create the necessary infrastructural basis for maximum rapid development digital economy and the spread of related technologies, and will allow in the future to build a single digital space that unites all industries and industries. Such an approach will contribute to a significant increase in the transparency, manageability and flexibility of the country's economy.
This strategy has both positive and negative qualities. The advantages of this approach in the development of the digital economy of Russia include: accelerated formation of infrastructure; a single digital space that unites all industries and industries; ease of maintenance, development and integration of digital platforms, etc. The disadvantages include: a high risk of digital monopolization of many sectors of the economy, which will lead to the elimination of competition, which helps to establish an equilibrium price and improve the quality of a product or service. The risk of widening the digital divide between industries is also high.
In order to manage the development of the digital economy, this Program defines goals and objectives within 5 basic directions for the development of the digital economy in the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024.
The basic areas include regulatory regulation, personnel and education, the formation of research competencies and technical groundwork, information infrastructure and information security. The main goal of the direction concerning regulatory regulation is the formation of a new regulatory environment that provides a favorable legal regime for the emergence and development of modern technologies, as well as for the implementation economic activity associated with their use (digital economy).
Given the need for legal regulation of most of the activities that are planned to be implemented in order to achieve the goals set within the framework of the basic and applied areas of development of the digital economy, when developing and implementing the concepts of priority, medium-term and comprehensive measures to improve the legal regulation of the digital economy within the framework of the direction of regulatory it is necessary to fully take into account proposals for the legal regulation of other basic and applied areas, which implies close interaction between the centers of competence created in each direction with the center of competence, which provides monitoring and improvement of the legal regulation of the digital economy.
The main goal of the direction concerning the formation of research competencies and technological groundwork is to create a support system for search, applied research in the field of the digital economy (research infrastructure of digital platforms), which ensures technological independence in each of the areas of end-to-end digital technologies that are globally competitive, and national security .
The development of the digital economy in Russia today is hampered by new challenges and threats, primarily:
the problem of ensuring human rights in the digital world, including identification (correlation of a person with his digital image), the safety of user digital data, as well as the problem of ensuring citizens' trust in the digital environment;
threats to individuals, businesses and the state associated with the trends towards building complex hierarchical information and telecommunication systems that widely use virtualization, remote (cloud) data storage, as well as heterogeneous communication technologies and end devices;
increasing the possibilities of external information and technical impact on the information infrastructure, including critical information infrastructure;
growth of scales of computer crime, including international; behind the leaders foreign countries in the development of competitive information technologies; dependence of socio-economic development on the export policy of foreign states;
insufficient efficiency of scientific research related to the creation of promising information technologies, low level introduction of domestic developments, as well as insufficient staffing in the field of information security.
The goal of the direction concerning information security is to achieve a state of protection of the individual, society and the state from internal and external information threats, which ensures the implementation of constitutional rights and freedoms of man and citizen, a decent quality and standard of living of citizens, sovereignty and sustainable socio-economic development of the Russian Federation. Federations in the digital economy.
Conclusion.
The digital economy is a dynamically developing form of doing business in the information society. It penetrates everywhere and occupies a strong position in the real sector of the economy. The digital economy is rapidly changing the usual forms and methods of doing business around the world.
Bibliographic list.
Matveev I.A. Electronic economy: the essence and stages of development. Management of economic systems: electronic scientific journal.
Vasilenko N.V. Digital economy: concepts and reality. Innovation clusters in the digital economy: theory and practice. Proceedings of the VIII scientific-practical conference with international participation. Edited by A.V. Babkin.
Andieva E.Yu., Filchakova V.D. Digital economy of the future, industry 4.0. Applied mathematics and fundamental informatics.
Introduction to the "Digital" economy under general edition Keshelava A.V. On the threshold of the "digital" future. Book one.
On approval of the program "Digital Economy of the Russian Federation": Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of July 28, 2017 N 1632-r.
Program for the development of the digital economy in the Russian Federation until 2035. http://spkurdyumov.ru/uploads/2017/05/strategy.pdf
Scientific e-library eLIBRARY [Electronic resource]. URL: http://elibrary.ru/defaultx.asp (date of access: 02/16/2017).
1 "Digital Medicine" - the use of digital medical devices in medical practice.
2 "Smart City" - the concept of integrating several information and communication technologies and the Internet of Things for city property management
3 A hardware and software system is a set of hardware and software tools that work together to perform one or more similar tasks.
4 Digital platform - a system of algorithmic relationships of a significant number of market participants, united by a single information environment, leading to a reduction in transaction costs through the use of a package of digital technologies and changes in the division of labor system.
The topic of building a digital economy in Russia has recently become a top topic at the suggestion of the President.
This is talked about at the highest level (at a meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and Priority Projects under the President of Russia, an ambitious (?) program for digitalization of Russia until 2024 was adopted), and at the expert level (here, many knowledgeable people doubt ambitions), and at the household level ( skepticism prevails here).
Why do the seemingly obvious advantages of the “digital perspective” confuse citizens? Why does the very understanding of the term "digital economy" in Russia and in the West not coincide? And the main question remained unanswered: will hopes for digitalization save the largely archaic post-Soviet domestic basis?
The topic of the digital economy has become fashionable, but who knows how long the “digitalization of the whole country” will last in the news headlines? However, in any case, for the next three or four years, attention, finances and solutions at the highest level are guaranteed to her. So what are we going to develop?
The question is not idle: the problem is that the authorities - not only in Russia, but also in the West - themselves do not fully understand what they expect from the digitalization of their economies. But one thing is already clear for sure: it is impossible to catch up and overtake “in terms of indicators” in this race.
Why has there been such an interest in this topic? Has Russia become a technologically advanced and innovative country? Probably, this should have been the case, since the president and the prime minister, having forgotten about modernization, innovation and other words, hoisted a new banner during the election race - they are building a digital economy!
N. Negroponte
In 1995, the American computer scientist Nicholas Negroponte (University of Massachusetts) coined the term "digital economy" (Negroponte N. Being Digital / N. Negroponte. - NY: Knopf, 1995.).
This concept is associated with the intensive development of information and communication technologies (ICT), the beginning of the process of informatization of the second generation, which, according to many, is the basis of the emerging VI technological order.
The scheme was prepared by the organizers of the Technoprom-2013 forum
Now this term is used all over the world, it has come into use by politicians, entrepreneurs, and journalists.
The digital economy is not an idea born in the minds of Russian officials. It was announced by the World Bank in 2016 in the World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends. True, there the concept of the digital economy and the priority steps in this direction differed from what the Government of the Russian Federation understands by this.
If the World Bank pointed to such signs of digitalization in Russia as open data, the e-government system, the work of domestic digital giants such as Yandex, Kaspersky, online ordering services, reducing the period for registering property rights using information technology to 10 days , then the Government of the Russian Federation did not stop at this in the final state program. Considering that the term itself is vague, the digital economy will obviously have Russian specifics.
To begin with, it is worth remembering the definition of the usual "analogue" economy- this is the economic activity of society, as well as the totality of relations that develop in the system of production, distribution, exchange and consumption.
The use of a computer, the Internet, mobile phones can already be considered "consumption", in this case, the digital economy can be represented as that part of economic relations that is mediated by the Internet, cellular communications, ICT.
Doctor of Economic Sciences, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences - Vladimir Ivanov gives the broadest definition:
“The digital economy is a virtual environment that complements our reality.”
Recently, a new interpretation has emerged: the digital economy as an addition to the analog economy, which can push the development of real sectors. The turn is amusing: a couple of years ago, the West tried by all means to “disperse” the digital segment so that it would become comparable in volume to the real economy, but now many experts note its stagnation that has begun in terms of reduced growth rates.
“Great Britain is one of the leaders in the digital economy, but last year this sector “weighed” only 12 percent of their GDP,” Jomart Aliyev, chairman of the Moscow International Higher School of Business MIRBIS, explained to Ogonyok. “And I have no data that this the figure is cleared of material goods supplied in this segment of the economy. In any case, 12 percent is not much.”
Jomart Aliyev is convinced that the level of development of the digital economy "directly correlates with the level of development of the material economy: where it is high in real life, the development of the digital segment is most appropriate there."
“For me, the digital economy does not exist as an independent one: there is a digital segment of the real economy,” says Jomart Aliyev. People are material beings that do not live in a virtual world. So, the existence of digital contracts for the supply of oil is still based on the fact that oil is needed for sale in physical terms. Like food, clothes, etc. Of course, there are already a certain number of people (such as gamers) who spend more on “life in digital” than on “life in real life”, but they are few and do not set trends in the economy.”
The main conclusion: the digital economy is not a recipe for all troubles and “a well-developed digital segment of the economy is just support for the economy as such.
Scientists have already determined that the more processes in production are digitized, the more active impetus to development is received by analog types of services and production. Moreover, when the effect of digitalization ends (and this inevitably happens), the activation of the analog economy is indispensable. In Russia, it seems that they decided not to consider digital and analog in conjunction at all, which is at least strange.
So, the Russian economy will not be raw or industrial, but digital. The government of the Russian Federation surprised with a new program that contains mainly sectoral goals: to create at least 10 high-tech IT enterprises, 10 “industrial digital platforms for the main sectors of the economy” (education, healthcare, etc.), 500 small and medium enterprises in the field of digital technologies .
And also ensure the annual graduation of 120 thousand certified IT specialists, provide 97 percent of Russian households with broadband Internet access at a speed of at least 100 Mbps (in 2016, the average speed was 12 Mbps).
And make sure that 95 percent of network traffic goes through domestic networks.
Establish stable 5G coverage in all million-plus cities and ensure that Russia's share in the global market for information storage and processing services is 10 percent (now less than 1 percent). All this by 2024 with annual funding of 100 billion rubles from the state budget.
The result of the implementation of the program should be a reduction in the share of foreign computer and telecommunications equipment purchased by government agencies, up to 50 percent, and software - up to 10 percent.
The goals outlined by the program clearly indicate that the government expects to receive from digitalization, first of all, a solution to the issue of national security. Meanwhile, it was precisely this mistake that experts from the World Bank warned against this mistake last autumn and winter, emphasizing that digitalization is a broader concept than the development of information and computer technologies (ICT). They can be understood - to be afraid of our independence as the devil incense. But even here it seems that they do not yet understand the full breadth of digitalization technologies, but in vain.
As you can see, the bet is made, in fact, on achieving certain digital indicators, and not on creating an environment. Let's explain. Broadband Internet, the number of programmers and the data transfer speed are more technical conditions. They are certainly needed, but they do not solve the main problem. And it is that in Russia the most serious lag behind the countries that are leaders in the digitalization of this area is in the field of management.
Western experts - whether they are from McKinsey or the World Bank - are unanimous that digital technologies do not work without adjusting the relationship between the subjects of the economy and management in general.
The digital revolution died down in the West 10-15 years ago: there, business was the first and very actively mastered new means of communication, digitized everything that was possible, got the authorities to legislate the electronic signature, established digital communications not only within the business community, but also state, and government departments have gradually integrated their information systems.
marginal notes
The authors of the WB report only casually notice that in economically developed countries, the contribution of ICT to increasing economic growth rates is still extremely modest. According to them, in the period 1995-99, the contribution of the entire digital economy to the economic growth of developed countries was equivalent to 3% of GDP; in the period 2005-2009 - 1.0%; in the period 2010-2014 - 1.8%.
However, they immediately acknowledge that the bulk of this contribution comes from the growth in the capitalization of companies in the ICT sector. Approximately 20% of all GDP growth driven by the digital economy in the 20-year period 1995-2014 was provided by industries and companies that were ICT consumers.
It turns out, that the main dividends from the digital economy are received not by society, but by IT companies. First of all, American IT companies.
According to the World Bank, 8 of the 14 largest high-tech companies in the world are located in the United States. And the contribution of the digital economy to US GDP, estimated at 7% of GDP, is the total capitalization of the promoted giants of the ICT sector. By the way, we remember the bubble that was inflated in 1999-2000 on the American stock exchange NASDAQ, where securities of high-tech companies were traded.
Then there was a lot of talk about the fact that “a new era is coming”, the era of high technologies and communications. It was then that the term "digital economy" went beyond the walls of Harvard and Massachusetts universities to enter the everyday life of American stock speculators and journalists associated with them.
We also remember that back in the 1960s and 1970s, American sociologists L. Thurow, E. Toffler, and D. Bell began to introduce the term “post-industrial society” into circulation and sum up their theories under it. So: at the turn of two centuries, the armchair, semi-utopian idea of a “post-industrial society” was concretely embodied in the concept of a “digital economy”.
The stock quotes of many IT companies in 2000 fell to a level below nowhere. Many then "ate" this very hi-tech. A few years later, speculators again began to inflate bubbles, but this time in the mortgage lending and mortgage securities market. It ended with the most severe financial crisis of 2007-2009.
According to experts, today we are witnessing a new round of stock exchange speculative game, the participants of which began to recklessly play the already forgotten card of the digital economy.
It would be a mistake to assume that Russia is 10 years behind the West in terms of the pace of digitalization: in some industries and sectors, it runs almost on a par with the leaders, for example, in the field of telecommunications and the distribution of broadband Internet, not to mention the development of the notorious 5G standard or in the scope of Internet banking.
It is another matter that the approaches of the authorities to solving a technological problem are the approaches of yesterday: to create a state corporation or a special project, or a high-tech platform is certainly under the control of authorities. Such institutions are emerging, but for some reason, neither Rosnano, nor the National Technological Initiative, nor Skolkovo have yet produced breakthrough projects and ideas.
If we study the experience of the West in this matter, then we can safely say: they won’t give it - for several years now, small teams of talented like-minded people have been breakthrough there, capable of making a breakthrough and opening a new horizon with meager means. That is why the West, on a new round of digitalization, relies on human capital - hence the attention to digital healthcare, the development of all types of services, and education.
For the appearance of such teams, an environment is needed, which, alas, does not exist in Russia yet. And it is worth understanding: it cannot be created by the positions prescribed in the program. Another attempt to catch up with the West in numbers (of IT companies, the speed of information transfer, an increase in the staff of programmers, etc.) will leave the Russian economy in its usual position - always lagging behind. To overcome the gap, we need not a “rolling plan” to fixed indicators on the shaft, but a different approach to the problem of numbers, for unclear reasons not taken into account— the relationship between the digital economy and the real one.
But that's another story. And sad. The real economy in Russia is as follows. Labor productivity is 3.5-4 times lower than in developed countries. According to this indicator, in 2016 we ranked 32nd among OECD countries. The degree of depreciation of fixed assets over the past three years is 48-49 percent, these are the highest figures since 1990 (data from the SSC).
Completely depreciated fixed assets of enterprises at the end of 2015 - 15.8 percent. The largest wear and tear is at enterprises producing machinery and equipment (24 percent). Of the 75.3 million people working in the real sector, more than 20 million are over 50…
Older people may know how to handle a computer. But digitalization is not only about ICT…
In general, to paraphrase the hero of the famous film, according to this program, there will no longer be “one continuous television”, but “one continuous computer”. But will it improve the lives of our citizens?
What do experts think about this?
“This will not only not raise the standard of living of the people, but will also finish off the remnants of industry! - the head of the Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development is sure Yuri Krupnov. — The program prioritizes certain consumer needs, smartphones and iPhones, without offering to build airplanes, turbines, ships, and so on. In that sense, this is an outstanding anti-industrial program!”
Krupnov states that the entire program is based on Western theses for the development of communications and Internet technologies 30 years ago:
“Our government just sat down and rewrote what it could. But the main thing is not this, but the fact that all this exists in the West in a different industrial system, where there are airbuses and so on. And smartphones and mobile phones are one hundredth of a percent. We have no planes, no machine tools, nothing! And instead of increasing our production, we fall into some childish fantasies about high-speed Internet and mobile phones. This is a question of the colossal inadequacy of the authors of the program!”
The subway train must arrive on time. And is it controlled by a machinist or artificial intelligence - is it really that important? A doctor should be able to treat, a teacher should be able to teach, not use a computer.
“Approximately the same thing was already promised to us many years ago by Anatoly Chubais - nanotechnology and other breakthroughs. But in the end, one “virtual reality” turned out, and billions of budget money fell into it, ”recalls the sociologist Roman Zavarishyn.
According to statistics, Russians eat meat, vegetables and fruits and drink less milk than Westerners. They are treated worse, they spend less on clothes, they travel less often. Every fifth Russian complains that he does not have enough money for food. And almost no one complained during opinion polls that he lacks artificial intelligence, virtual reality, 5G Internet and a robot - a tram driver.
“Our native government already lives completely in virtual reality,” Zavarishin comments.
And it's hard to disagree with that.
Indeed, if you believe the statistics published in the government program itself, things are going well with digital technologies in Russia without a program. Thus, for every hundred people we have 160 mobile phones, 71.3% of the population use mobile access to the Internet. The average network speed in Russia is 12.2 Mbps, and according to this indicator, Russia is on the same level with France, Italy and Greece!
So what's the problem? Should the government be concerned about this? Isn't it better to think about production, agriculture, and not swim in "virtual reality"?
No, Dmitry Medvedev is sure that the happiness of the people depends entirely on the transfer of Russia to the "figure". A “digital environment” should be formed in Russia, which is now at the stage of development, the prime minister said:
“This movement needs to be seriously accelerated, the existing obstacles for the successful development of digital infrastructure will have to be removed.”
Economists, meanwhile, are surprised: yes, there are small countries, offshores, the basis of the economy of which is financial services, remote registration of legal entities and other “numbers”. In principle, such an economy can be called digital. But there are no large countries with the dominance of electronic products in the economy in the world!
“In the field of digital technologies, we are already not in last place,” comments the head of the Rossiyskoye Pravo agency. Alexey Samokhvalov. Why is this program needed? With us, you can pay for most services via the Internet - buy air tickets, pay for utilities, etc. Banks provide loans using Internet banking, etc.”
BUT Alexey Voronin, co-founder of the investment fund ICO Lab, does not understand:
“Does it make sense to digitize all paper documents? This is the weakest point in the program - the direction of "State regulation".
However, with state regulation in Russia, things are not only in the program, but in general, the situation is rather bad. But it's good - with virtual reality.
IAC
***
The end follows.
The details of the plan became known to the press economic reforms aimed at the transition of the Russian Federation to, which Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to Kommersant, the plan proposed in May to Putin by the head of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) Alexei Kudrin involves the creation of a center for the transformation of state-owned companies under the president and a network of special agencies in the government, two new state programs, and reform of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the university environment.
All this must be done in a short time, as the "door" for industry and other sectors in new type The economy is "rapidly shutting down." However, the rapid transformation from a resource-based economy - the future outsider of the new structure of global industry - into one of the leaders will require considerable funds from the authorities.
The cost of a breakthrough to a new type of economy was estimated by experts of the Center for Strategic Development at 185 trillion rubles, or about 30.8% of GDP per year. At the same time, in order to start the implementation of the "digital revolution", in their opinion, new "May decrees" of the president are needed, similar to the decrees of 2012. It should be noted that some of those instructions of the President have not been fulfilled by the officials so far. Earlier, Kudrin called for postponing the implementation of these decrees to a later date.
In order to receive part of the funding for the "digital economy" program, it is proposed to revive the old idea - however, the bulk of investment in the project should be private: the CSR assumes that the implementation of such a large-scale program in itself will cause a revival of investment, including external ones (recall, one of the ideas The CSR outside this plan is the normalization of the foreign policy of the Russian Federation).
In addition, Kudrin's subordinates proposed to reduce spending on public administration by reducing the state apparatus by about 30%.
So far, the government is discussing the possibility of creating a digital economy fund with a volume of 100 billion rubles. This was announced recently by the assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Andrei Belousov, TASS reported. The official added that this money will help create, in particular, the infrastructure (networks, data centers, hardware) for the digital economy of Russia. According to him, the digital economy development program will be announced on July 5.
Previously, it was assumed that this would be done on June 1. This deadline was set by Russian President Vladimir Putin in his address to the Federal Assembly on December 1, 2016.
In February, 2017 the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications which was engaged in preparation of the program of development of digital economy of Russia announced a possibility of creation of a separate fund for financing of planned reforms. It is assumed that the contributions of operators could be combined into this fund (1.2% of the proceeds now sent to the universal communication service fund, funds from the sale of radio frequencies and other payments, RIA Novosti reported.
In June, the topic of the digital economy became the key topic in the President's speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. As a result of the forum, the head of state instructed the government to finalize the draft Digital Economy program in terms of funding (provide sources, mechanisms and amount of funding for the program) by July 1.
It should be noted that if Kudrin's plan is adopted, then the authorities will have to deal with all this along with the preparation and holding of the presidential elections, which will be held in 2018.
In addition, the media note that the implementation of the digital economy program may be hindered by the so-called Yarovaya law. Most of the amendments proposed by him came into force on July 20, 2016, and the rest should take effect a year later - on July 1, 2018.
The authorities may have to choose between the new economy and the "Yarovaya Law"
Meanwhile, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) previously estimated the costs of market participants for the implementation of the Yarovaya Law until 2019. At the same time, the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications to help operators.
Thus, the upcoming costs will not allow operators to invest in construction for the digitalization of the economy, experts interviewed by Bussiness fm believe. As a result, the state will have to choose what is more important: new economy or the old approach and the total collection of all information. If the choice is made in favor of the economy, the entry into force of the Yarovaya Law may be postponed.
Earlier, Kudrin said that Russia is three to four times behind the leading countries in the digitalization of the economy and is unlikely to overcome this gap by 2024. "Unfortunately, in six years we will not yet catch up with the leading countries," he noted (quoted by Nezavisimaya Gazeta).
According to the head of the CSR, the state should become a kind of locomotive in digitalization. It should run a little bit ahead, serving as a platform where services for the population will be delivered in a new way.
In order to form a digital economy, education will be updated
Note that work in this direction is already underway. Thus, the interim commission of the Federation Council for the development of the information society has begun preparing a concept for updating education in order to form a digital economy, RBC reports.
In their work, the authors of the concept will focus on amendments to the law "On Education", which came into force on new edition in January of this year, and on the "Strategy for the Development of the Information Society in the Russian Federation for 2017-2030", the head of the commission, Lyudmila Bokova, told the publication.
According to her, work on the document will begin in July and last until November 2017, the presentation and public discussion concepts are scheduled for March 2018.
NG writes that now, with the words "digital economy", most Russians think of online purchases and receiving some public services via the Internet. 47.4 million people are registered in the Unified Identification and Authentication System (ESIA). The increase in users of electronic public services in April 2017 amounted to more than 2 million people. Thus, almost a third of the population of the Russian Federation can now receive public services in electronic form.
Every second user of the Russian segment of the Internet is already registered on the Unified Portal of State and Municipal Services. Over the past year, almost 18 million new users appeared, the monthly increase reaches about 2.5 million people.
In 2016, 380 million state and municipal services were ordered. The top five in terms of the share of citizens registered in the ESIA included the Republic of Tyva (70.6%), Tula (65.8%) and Kursk (64.8%) regions, Khanty-Mansiysk (64.0%) and Yamalo- Nenets (66.1%) Autonomous Okrug.
You can now apply for a passport online driver's license, obtain a taxi driver's patent, licenses, permits in the urban field, transfer readings of water and electricity meters, register real estate rights, parents can find out about the student's grades online. Young people can calculate their future pension, and pensioners can find out how their pension accruals are formed.
To pay for housing and communal services, a single all-Russian Information system, which contains information about most houses and personal accounts, from 2018 it will be possible to pay for all utility services.
The total volume of payments through the public services portal amounted to 8 billion rubles in 2016, which is almost three times higher than the result of 2015. The latest innovation was the draft law on the provision of remote medical care.
With regard to Internet commerce, the volume of its market in Russia is growing rapidly. In 2013, it amounted to 544 billion rubles, in 2014 - 713 billion rubles (an increase of 31%), in 2015 - 760 billion rubles (according to eMarketer, in 2015 the market volume in the world amounted to 1.8 trillion dollars) . In 2016, online sales in Russia grew by another 21% and amounted to 920 billion rubles. Analysts expect that in 2017 they will reach 1.1 trillion rubles. In the next four years, the Russian e-commerce market will continue to grow by an average of 20% per year, doubling in 2020 compared to 2016, experts say.
The number of parcels from foreign online stores almost doubles every year. The Association of Internet Trade Companies, which unites 36 Russian retailers and Russian Post, expects that in 2017 Russians will receive 400 million parcels from abroad, having already spent about 420 billion rubles on them. In the domestic market, the number of orders in 2016 increased by only 6%.
"Digital Economy" - from telemedicine to "smart factories"
The term "digital economy" was introduced in 1995 by the American computer scientist Nicholas Negroponte (University of Massachusetts). Now this term is used all over the world. However, the content of this concept is still vague, RIA Novosti reports.
Doctor of Economic Sciences, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Ivanov gives the broadest definition: "The digital economy is a virtual environment that complements our reality."
Roman Meshcheryakov - Professor of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Vice-Rector for Research and Innovation of the Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics, identifies two approaches to the term "digital economy". The first approach is "classic": the digital economy is an economy based on digital technologies, and it is more correct to characterize only the area of electronic goods and services. Classic examples are telemedicine, distance learning, sale of medical content (movies, TV, books, etc.). The second approach is extended: "digital economy" is economic production using digital technologies.
“Currently,” Meshcheryakov explains, “some experts believe that it is necessary to expand this understanding and include in it a chain of goods and services that are provided using digital technologies, including such concepts as the Internet of things, Industry 4.0, smart factory, 5G communication networks, prototyping engineering services, etc."
Alexandra Engovatova, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics of Innovation at the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University named after M.V. Lomonosov, gives the following definition: "The digital economy is an economy based on new methods of generating, processing, storing, transmitting data, as well as digital computer technologies ".
"Within this economic model, - emphasizes Engovatova, - the existing market business models are undergoing a cardinal transformation, the model of formation of added value is changing significantly, the importance of intermediaries at all levels in the economy is sharply reduced. In addition, the importance of an individual approach to the formation of a product is increasing - because now we can model anything."
