Index consumer prices for goods and services (CPI) is one of the main indicators that characterize inflationary processes in the country. The CPI is applied in the recalculation of macro economic indicators from current prices to comparable prices. This indicator is also used to characterize changes in household consumer spending on goods and paid services in the current period compared to the previous (base) period under the influence of price changes for these goods and services in individual subjects of the Russian Federation and in the country as a whole. Based on the CPI, in particular, the value per capita and for the main socio-demographic groups is calculated. Using CPI indicators, employers can produce a mandatory one (Letter of Rostrud dated April 19, 2010 No. 1073-6-1, Definition of the Constitutional Court dated November 19, 2015 No. 2618-O).
The CPI characterizes the change over time in the general level of prices for goods and services purchased by the population, and is calculated as follows:
CPI \u003d C 1 / C 0,C 1 - the cost of a fixed list of goods and services in the prices of the current period;
C 0 - the cost of a fixed list of goods and services in the prices of the previous (base) period.
The set of goods and services on the basis of which the CPI is calculated is the same for all constituent entities of the Russian Federation and represents a selection of groups of goods and services most frequently consumed by the population developed by Rosstat. Such a set consists of food products, non-food products and services.
The CPI is calculated on a monthly basis within the framework of the Federal Statistical Work Plan, approved by Government Decree No. 671-r of May 6, 2008. The methodology for calculating the CPI was established by the Order of Rosstat dated December 30, 2014 No. 734.
Information about the approved CPI is posted on the Internet on the official website of Rosstat gks.ru.
The CPI value in 2017 can be found on the website in the "Indices" section or in the ATP ConsultantPlus.
Consumer price indices for 2018 will also be posted on the Rosstat website as such coefficients are approved; for January 2018, such coefficients will be available no earlier than February 2018.
The change in prices in the economy is given by various price dynamics indicators— producer price indices, gross domestic product deflator, consumer price index. When people talk about inflation, they usually mean the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the change over time in the cost of a set of food, non-food goods and services consumed by an average household (i.e., the cost of " consumer basket"). The choice of the CPI as the main indicator of inflation is related to its role as an important indicator of the dynamics of the cost of living of the population. In addition, the CPI has a number of characteristics that make it convenient for widespread use - the simplicity and clarity of the construction methodology, the monthly frequency of calculation, and the speed of publication.
The periods for which the CPI is measured can vary. The most common comparisons are the level of consumer prices in a certain month of the year with their level in the previous month, the corresponding month. previous year, December of the previous year.
Statistical monitoring of prices, necessary calculations and publication of data on CPI in Russia is carried out by federal Service state statistics.
In Russia, as in emerging markets in general, feature the consumer basket is a fairly high share of food products (in 2014 - 36.5%). Their prices are highly volatile. To a large extent, inflation fluctuations in the food market are determined by changes in supply volumes, primarily the crop yield in our country and in the world, which is significantly dependent on weather conditions. Since the share of food products in the consumer basket is high, price fluctuations for them can have a significant impact on inflation in general.
Another feature of the Russian consumer basket used to calculate the CPI is the presence in it of goods and services, prices and tariffs for which are subject to administrative influence. Thus, the state regulates tariffs for a number of services public utilities, passenger transport, communication, some others. In addition, prices for tobacco products, alcoholic products significantly depend on excise rates.
Consumer demand is satisfied by goods and services of both domestic and foreign production. Statistical data on the share of imports in the CPI are not available, but an idea of it in terms of goods can be given specific gravity imports in the structure of commodity resources of retail trade (in last years- about 44%). A significant share of merchandise imports in the consumer basket determines the significance of the impact on inflation of changes exchange rate ruble.
Prices may rise faster or slower. In the first case, they speak of an increase in inflation, in the second, of its decrease. There are various reasons for the change in inflation. Let's consider them on the example of accelerating price growth. If the level of demand for goods and services exceeds the supply capacity to satisfy it, they speak of a pro-inflationary effect. demand side factors. AT individual cases the outpacing growth in demand can be affected too available loans, accelerated growth of nominal incomes of economic entities. These sources of excess demand are often referred to as "monetary factors of inflation"- pressure on prices due to the creation of an excess amount of money.
Inflation can also grow when an imbalance in the market for a good or service arises due to insufficient suggestions, for example, due to crop failure, restrictions on the import of products from abroad, the actions of a monopolist.
Inflation can be caused by growth costs for the production and sale of a unit of output - due to the rise in the cost of raw materials, materials, components, the increase in the costs of enterprises for wages, taxes, interest payments and other costs. Rising costs may also lead to lower production volumes and, further, to the formation of additional pro-inflationary pressure due to insufficient supply.
The rise in prices for imported cost components may be due to both an increase in world prices and a depreciation of the national currency. In addition, the weakening of the national currency can directly affect the prices of final products imported from abroad. The overall effect of exchange rate changes on price movements is called "transfer effect" and is often considered as a separate factor of inflation.
Economic theory highlights as a special factor inflation expectations— Assumptions regarding the level of future inflation, formed by the subjects of the economy. The expected level of inflation is taken into account by producers when making decisions regarding the setting of prices for their own products, rates wages, determining the volume of production and investment. Households' inflationary expectations affect their decisions about how much of their funds to save and how much to consume. The decisions of economic actors affect the supply and demand for goods and services and, ultimately, inflation.
High inflation means a decrease in the purchasing power of the incomes of all economic entities, which negatively affects demand, economic growth, the standard of living of the population, the mood in society. The depreciation of income reduces opportunities and undermines incentives to save, which hinders the formation of a sustainable financial basis for investment. In addition, high inflation is accompanied by increased uncertainty, which makes it difficult for economic actors to make decisions. All together, this negatively affects savings, consumption, production, investment, and, in general, the conditions for sustainable economic development.
Price stability means maintaining low rates of growth in consumer prices, such that economic entities neglected in decision making. In conditions of low and predictable inflation, the population is not afraid to save in the national currency for long terms, because it is sure that inflation will not devalue their contributions. Long-term savings, in turn, are a source of investment financing. In conditions of price stability, banks are ready to provide resources to borrowers for long periods at relatively low rates. Thus, price stability creates conditions for the growth of investment and, ultimately, for sustainable economic development.
The value of which reflects the average prices for services and goods in the consumer basket for a certain time period. It is calculated using the ratio market value a pre-selected set of products in the current year to the base. In Russia, it is headed by public service Rosstat. The consumer price index according to this method includes the price of the consumer basket last month as the base period. In January, the data for December of the previous year is used. However, the basis for this indicator may differ from country to country.
AT general view The CPI is the quotient of the sum of the products of the current prices for the output of the base year and the previous one included in the methodology. total cost baskets. The calculated consumer price index will be an indicator of changes in the standard of living in the country. If Q 0 is the volume of products included in the consumer basket, and P 0 and P t are the base and current prices, respectively, then the formula should look like this:
The result is written as a percentage. If it is more than 100, then inflation is observed in the economy, as evidenced by the increasing cost of goods.
The consumer price index shows the change in the exchange rate of the national currency. An increase in its growth rate indicates an increase in inflation in the economy and the need to tighten monetary policy regulatory body. At the same time, when choosing its strategy of behavior in the market, the Central Bank should focus not only on the actual indicator, but also on its expected level. If workers believe in higher prices, they will start demanding higher wages. This will lead to the fact that manufacturers will increase the cost of production. On the other hand, high inflation expectations increase investment flows as current consumption becomes more profitable than saving free funds.
The monetary policy of the Central Bank is often aimed at reducing the rate of inflation, as it indicates an overheating of the economy, which hinders its sustainable growth. However, low consumer prices are also dangerous. Low inflation expectations deprive households of an incentive to invest free funds, gradually stopping the growth of the economy. To prevent this situation, the Central Banks reduce interest rates.
Many items in the consumer basket are subject to price spikes, making the resulting simple calculation the value of inflation is unstable. Therefore, in many countries, the core index is additionally analyzed. It includes about a quarter of the goods and services in the basket, excluding everything that is subject to sharp price changes as a result of seasonal or weather factors. On the one hand, this makes it a more stable indicator. On the other hand, it leads to the fact that it less fully reflects the depth of the processes taking place in the economy.
The Federal State Statistics Service calculates all major economic indicators. The consumer price index is analyzed in accordance with the Decree of the State Statistics Committee No. 23 of March 25, 2002. In March 2015, it amounted to 101.2% compared to February and 107.4% - to December 2014 and 116.9% - to the corresponding month of 2014. Commodity prices increased by higher percentage than for the provision of services. At the same time, the budget includes a value of 111.4%, which makes the cost of the pension coefficient from February 1, 2015 equal to 71.41 rubles.
The consumer price index is based on a predetermined set of products. It is to the contents of the basket used that often the most questions arise. In order to reproduce the state of affairs in national economy, it should reflect the real structure of consumption. But often countries do not change its composition for years, which leads to the exclusion of a number of services that are part of Everyday life. In particular, in the basket in many developing countries mobile communication does not turn on, but only wired. On the other hand, if you change the set of goods and services, then this will make the new consumer price index incomparable with the previous one. If we compare the obtained indicators, then they can differ by a fairly large amount.
Therefore, for the purposes economic analysis and planning, it is important to carefully approach the structure of the basket, changing it in case of significant shifts in the structure of consumption. In general, the PPI reflects market conditions quite effectively.
At the end of 2018, the Russian economy set a record for inflation - however, a positive one. The indicator for the year was equal to 2.5% (previously, the government predicted an inflation rate of 4%). Such low inflation is good for the consumer, who is no longer too surprised by the increase in prices in stores. But it is also a reflection of the crisis in the Russian economy, a sign of weak economic activity. What is inflation in Russia in 2019 - the official data of Rosstat reflect this figure today.
First of all, it is worth starting with this very question - is Rosstat engaged in calculating the level of inflation in Russia in principle. The fact is that this department provides somewhat different information - Rosstat calculates the consumer price index. Although this value is one of the most important indicators in calculating inflation in Russia, it is not the only one. Periodic reports on inflation in Russia are made by another agency, namely the Ministry of Economic Development.
In particular, on April 16, 2018, the Ministry of Economic Development presented its forecast for annual inflation for April.
The consumer price index in 2018, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, in May amounted to 100.4%, from the beginning of the year - 101.6% (in May 2017 - 100.4%, from the beginning of the year - 101.7%).
| May 2018 to | January-May 2018 to January-May 2017 |
|||||||
| April
2018 |
May
2017 |
|||||||
| Consumer price index | 100,4 | 102,4 | 102,3 | |||||
| including on: | ||||||||
| products | 100,4 | 101,9 | 101,8 | |||||
| food products |
99,9 | 100,4 | 100,9 | |||||
| food goods without fruit vegetable products |
100,1 | 100,8 | 100,7 | |||||
| non-food products |
100,9 | 103,4 | 102,7 | |||||
| services | 100,4 | 104,0 | 103,9 | |||||
| Base index consumer prices |
100,2 | 102,0 | 101,9 | |||||
In May in 23 subjects Russian Federation the increase in consumer prices amounted to 0.5% or more, of which in the Novosibirsk region - 0.9% as a result of an increase in prices for non-food products by 1.3% and in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug - 0.8% as a result of an increase in prices for non-food products and services by 1.9% and 1.0% respectively.
In Moscow and St. Petersburg, the consumer price index for the month amounted to 100.4% (since the beginning of the year - 101.8% and 102.0%, respectively).
A significant impact on the dynamics of consumer prices for food products had a reduction in the cost of fruits and vegetables. Thus, cucumbers fell in price by 16.9%, bananas - by 12.4%, tomatoes - by 10.5%, garlic - by 4.1%, grapes - by 2.2%, oranges - by 1.4%. At the same time, lemons became more expensive by 19.9%, fresh white cabbage - by 16.6%, table beets - by 11.7%, carrots - by 7.3%, onions - by 4.7%, apples – by 2.9%.
The consumer price index for 2018, according to Rosstat, recorded a decrease in prices for most observed types of pasta and cereals. Thus, buckwheat became cheaper by 2.9%, semolina - by 0.6%, peas and beans - by 0.5%, Hercules oatmeal - by 0.4%. At the same time, millet has risen in price by 2.0%.
Prices for live and chilled fish, frozen squids, chilled and frozen cut salmon fish increased by 1.0-1.3%, pork, chilled and frozen chickens, long leaf black tea, fish ice cream fillets, bakery products made from premium flour piece - by 0.6-0.8%
Annual inflation is the rate of inflation over the past 12 months. That is, not for the calendar year as such, but for the past 365 days. Annual inflation at the end of April 2018 will reflect how much the ruble depreciated between May 1, 2017 and April 30, 2018.
The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development in this regard is all the more interesting because at the beginning of April 2018, the Russian National currency experienced a serious shake-up when the dollar soared from less than 58 rubles to 64 rubles (and on the stock exchange - up to 65 rubles per dollar). It is clear that the growth of the dollar and the depreciation of the ruble is a serious reason for the growth of inflation in Russia.
Nevertheless, the Ministry of Economic Development is not inclined to exaggerate the significance of what happened to the ruble last week. According to the forecast presented by economists of the ministry, the annual inflation rate in April 2018 will be equal to 2.3-2.6 percent.
As noted in the Ministry of Economic Development, the fall of the ruble in April will have an impact on inflation in Russia only if the effect of it lasts long enough. At the moment, we see that the dollar and euro are declining, the ruble is trying to find a new balance. The only question is how this balance will turn out. If a Russian currency will return to the previous values, what happened will not be reflected in inflation at all.
If we turn to inflation statistics for the first three months of the current year, the data are as follows:
The inflation target set by the Central Bank of Russia for 2018 is 4%.
At the moment, thanks to the regulation of the economy with the help of the key rate, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is successfully coping with this goal. Moreover, at the end of March, when the Board of Directors of the Central Bank was once again reviewing the rate, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, emphasized that so far inflation in the country is growing more slowly than planned. It is possible that the Bank of Russia will even resort to special measures so that inflation accelerates a little and reaches the 4% per annum that is set.
According to bankiclub.ru
DEFINITION
It is an indicator used in statistics to calculate changes (dynamics) in prices for the period under study.
The consumer price index is calculated in the following order:
The CPI formula is calculated using three methods:
Laspereys consumer price index reflects the change in prices for products sold in the base period. In the process of calculating the Laspereys index, the cost of products sold in the past period (in prices of the current period) and the same amount of goods in prices of the past period of time are compared.
The formula for the Laspereys consumer price index is as follows:
Ip=∑p1q0 / ∑p0q0
p0 is the price of the base period;
q0 and q1 are the quantity of goods sold in the respective periods.
Paasche CPI Formula reflects the change in prices of products sold in reporting year in comparison with the price of the base year (period). This comparison is carried out with the quantity of goods that were sold in the reporting year. The formula for the consumer price index looks like this:
Ip=∑p1q1 / ∑p0q1
Here p1 is the price of the reporting period;
p0 is the price of the base period;
q1 is the quantity of goods sold in the base period.
In Russia, in the process of calculating the price index, the Laspeyres index is most often used. The Paasche consumer price index formula does not consider a fall in demand for a product (for example, during a recession in the economy or inflationary processes).
The Paasche consumer price index underestimates the level of inflation, since it does not focus on assortment shifts in the current period compared to the base period. The Laspeyres index, on the contrary, to some extent overestimates the level of inflationary processes, since the effect of replacing an expensive product with a similarly cheap one is not taken into account.
In the process of eliminating these contradictions, the Fisher price index formula is used, which is calculated by the geometric mean of the Laspeyres and Paasche indices:
Ip=√ ∑p1q1 / ∑p0q1 * Ip=∑p1q0 / ∑p0q0
Calculations using the Fisher formula are very time-consuming, so it is rarely used in practice.
Depending on the base object calculation, it is customary to distinguish several types of indices:
EXAMPLE 1
| Exercise | For two periods, there were 3 types of products in consumption, for which the following information is given: Products 1 1 period - 100 pcs. 10 rubles each 2 period - 80 pcs. for 15 rubles. Products 2 1 period - 60 pcs. for 27 rubles, 2 period - 70 pcs. for 24 rubles. Products 3 1 period - 30 pcs. for 655 rubles, 2 period - 50 pcs. for 425 rubles. Determine the consumer price index using the Laspeyres formula |
| Solution | The basis of the formula for the Laspereys consumer price index is the level of the base period: Ip=∑p1q0 / ∑p0q0 Ip=100*15 + 60*24 + 30*425 / 100*10 + 60*27 + 30*655 Ip \u003d 1500 + 1440 + 12750 / 1000 + 1620 + 19650 \u003d 15690 / 22270 \u003d 0.7045 (that is, 70.45%) |
