The global financial system is economic relations associated with the functioning of world money and serving various types of economic relations between countries (foreign trade, capital export, investment of profits, loans and subsidies, scientific and technical exchange, tourism, public and private transfers, etc.). ).
The relevance of the research topic is determined by the fact that in modern conditions of deepening the integration of the economies of industrialized countries, the world monetary system plays an increasingly important and independent role in world economic relations. In addition, it has a direct impact on the determining economic situation country factors: the growth rate of production and international exchange, on prices, wages etc.
The purpose of the study is to study the development trends of the global financial in the XXI century.
To the development trends of the world financial system can include the following.
Regulation of financial markets and investment institutions, namely:
1) strengthening the financial system and reforming local financial institutions through the development and dissemination of international principles and standards for the regulation and supervision of banking system, the stock market and various financial institutions.
2) identification of ways to strengthen prudential supervision in both developing and developed countries;
3) creation of mechanisms for market regulation of the derivatives market and investment activity with active use of borrowed resources;
4) stimulating the introduction international standards activities in offshore financial centers.
Well-established economic policy:
1) determining the conditions for liberalizing the domestic market and introducing an adequate foreign exchange regime in countries with emerging markets, developing ways to control the movement of international capital;
2) improving the efficiency of mechanisms state support the private sector and the distribution of social benefits;
3) finding ways to minimize population losses as a result of crises and developing policies that would better protect the most vulnerable segments of the population;
4) increasing transparency in private and public sector and in the activities of international financial institutions.
Creation of new international structures:
1) create a separate supranational institution or give new powers to one of the existing international organizations to coordinate directions macro economic policy leading developed and developing countries, especially in the field of suppression of inflation and employment of the population;
2) create a system of international financial regulation to develop common international standards and oversee the activities of institutions conducting operations on a global scale. An important step in this direction could be regular meetings of representatives of the financial authorities of the G-7 countries, leading countries with emerging markets and international financial institutions within the framework of a special forum on the implementation of regulatory policy.
The goals of improving the global financial system at the present stage are:
1) restoration of economic activity and investor confidence in countries that have survived the financial crisis;
2) preventing further spread of the crisis to developed countries;
3) minimizing the risks of future crises, limiting their depth and scope;
4) limiting the financial costs of overcoming crises and reducing the time to overcome them;
5) limiting possible losses of investors during future crises;
6) creation of a financial system that would use all the advantages of global markets and capital mobility with minimal risk of destruction and effective protection of the most vulnerable social groups of the population;
7) increased oversight by the IMF of the policies pursued by member countries, especially in the financial sector and in the field of capital movements;
8) improving the efficiency of macroeconomic policy at the international level.
Thus, the development and stable functioning of the international financial system is due to the growth of productive forces, the creation of a world market, the deepening of the international division of labor, the formation of a world economic system, and the internationalization of economic relations.
Literature:
1. Noskova I.Ya. International financial and credit relations: Proc. allowance. - M.: UNITI, 2010.-346 p.
2. Fedorov B.G. Modern currency and credit markets. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2008. - 345 p.
As already noted in Chapter 1, the sphere of implementation of the processes of financial globalization in the world economy is the global financial market.
In its own way economic essence the global financial market is a system of monetary relations that redistributes the world's financial resources between economic agents, sectors of the economy, countries and regions of the world. From an institutional point of view, the global financial market can be viewed as a system of financial and credit institutions and regulatory bodies that ensure the circulation of financial resources in the global economy by creating international chains of "investor - borrower". From a functional point of view, the global financial market is a set of market segments that ensure the accumulation and redistribution of funds between the subjects of the world economy through financial institutions for the purposes of reproduction and achieving a normal balance between demand and supply of capital.
The formation of the global financial market began to be felt in the early 60s of the twentieth century. and took place on the basis of the internationalization of international operations of national markets for loan capital. Until that moment, due to a number of historical reasons - the global economic crisis of 1929-1933, the Second World War, the existing currency restrictions, strict market regulation - the financial market was practically paralyzed.
At present, integration processes in the global financial market actually form a single system of interest rates and contribute to narrowing the range of currencies circulating on it. Leading national companies and banks are turning into transnational ones. It is they who, in view of the need to obtain additional profit, contribute to the fact that free assets are invested in production and financial structures abroad, and, if necessary, additional capital is borrowed on the world market. Thus, there is a significant impact on the development of operations related to the movement of capital, and sometimes on the state of individual national economies. It should be noted that the processes of development of the global financial market, on the one hand, lead to convergence and unification individual markets, and on the other hand, there is a desire to isolate them in order to protect national economies from the harmful effects of processes associated with the free movement of capital. In modern conditions, the desire to isolate national economies conflicts with the process of internationalization of the world economy and does not bring the desired results.
An important condition for the functioning of the world economy is freedom in the field of movement of capital in the world market. In this regard, throughout the entire post-war period, a policy of gradual removal of foreign trade and foreign exchange restrictions was pursued. The type and degree of government intervention in financial market operations varied depending on the monetary position of individual countries and the state of their economies. Gradually, as a result of internationalization, the world economy takes on a qualitatively new content, a global integrated financial market is being formed, within which there is a constant mutual flow of capital, short-term investments are transformed into medium and long-term loans, the issue of securities replaces conventional bank loans. The total volume of securities in the world today is calculated by astronomical indicators. Thus, there is a trend of exceptional rates of development of the world financial market, both in general and its individual elements.
The global financial market includes various types of markets:
over-the-counter unregulated foreign exchange markets that bring together financial institutions different countries. Trades on them are carried out by electronic transfers through global computer networks;
exchange and over-the-counter bond markets, allowing foreign issuers to issue their securities on large national markets. The financial centers of these markets are such countries as the USA, Great Britain, Japan, Germany, Switzerland and Luxembourg;
The market for syndicated euro loans allows international borrowers to fund in the form of bank loans from several countries at once. Financial centers are London, Frankfurt, Zurich, New York, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc.;
markets for Eurobonds and Eurocommercial and other debt securities. International borrowers get access to credit resources investment funds, hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, treasury departments of large corporations, private banks in other countries;
derivatives markets that ensure the movement of financial capital across national borders and transactions between economic agents resident in different states.
At the same time, the global financial market is a system of interrelated markets: the money market, where transactions are made with debt instruments for a period of 1 day to 1 year; credit, servicing the provision of loans for a longer period; securities (issue and purchase and sale of the latter).
Among the main trends in the global financial market are:
More high level diversification.
International investors and borrowers today face a huge choice between markets, financial products, currencies, risks, and so on. Active participants in the global financial market receive an additional overview of markets, products, capital flows and the competitive situation. The global pressure of competition also keeps the pace of innovation, usually faster than in a market protected by national protectionist policies.
Higher liquidity.
Due to the large number of participants, the financial products of the global financial market are characterized in most cases by improved liquidity. This primarily applies to formally organized financial markets.
Increased attention to the risk management process.
Globalization, information technology, financial innovation and modern theories of asset portfolio management have made it possible to develop in a short time special system risk management and optimization: risks are subdivided, assessed, reassembled, eliminated and limited. Thus, the risk losses that a company inevitably faces when operating in a global financial environment are minimized.
It is known that transnational corporations in the course of their activities operating in a global environment often face various types of financial risks. One of these methods is hedging with financial instruments.
Diagram 2.1. Volumes of the derivatives market in trln. dollars in 1998-2007 Source: Ershov M. Crisis of 2008: "Moment of Truth" for the Global Economy and New Opportunities for Russia. - Issues of Economics No. 12, 2008
More efficient capital allocation.
Globalization and information technology have brought the possibility of a more efficient allocation of investment capital, at least in the medium term.
At its core, globalization encourages mutual understanding on the part of the investor and the borrower.
Increasing Crisis Phenomena
The existing flows of information, available simultaneously to everyone, can lead to global processes characterized by overreactions and a sharp change in mood. All this contributes to the strengthening of the negative consequences of crises, and as a result, the difficulty of getting out of them. The losses from financial crises are also getting bigger.
Diagram 2.2. Losses of countries from financial crises (billion dollars) Source: Ibid.
Speculations of global participants in regional markets.
The globalization of financial markets often leads to a difference between global and domestically oriented participants. So, regional or national markets capital having importance for listed SMEs, can be used to generate margin. At the same time, it is small and medium-sized exchanges that are supposed to be assisted in building their competitiveness as members of integrated global markets. In this process, globalization can positively affect pure domestic markets, if not by revolutionary measures, then at least by evolutionary ones.
Growing international competition.
As a result, markets become more efficient, many restrictions and barriers are removed, and market equilibrium is established. On the other hand, growing competition significantly increases the requirements for financial institutions and corporations in terms of their economic efficiency, as well as to governments in terms of improving the investment climate, ensuring the political and economic stability of national economies that are forced to compete with each other for credit resources on a global scale.
8. Growth of the information and analytical component.
Large banks organize powerful information structures connecting clients with financial, investment and commodity markets. At the same time, all possible channels for obtaining information are used. Having information, banks provide a wide range of consulting services, provide data on the state of the market and enterprises operating in it. Moreover, they deploy active consulting in the field of internal and external management of their clients - predetermining their economic policy and internal structure.
There is an opinion that over the past 30 years the market has been developing in the direction of what it was about 90 years ago. And the main difference between globalization then and now is the nature of the capital that serves trade and investment flows.
On the one hand, a significant part of it is criminal cash, i.e. those that are used to finance the shadow economy, organized crime groups and the corrupt part of the state apparatus. According to UN statistics, about $300 million is legalized every day in the international financial system. The annual turnover of drug trafficking ($400 billion) is the third largest after oil and arms trade Source: Moiseev S.R. Globalization of financial markets: myth or reality? "Finance Digest" - No. 3, 2002.
On the other hand, with the inclusion of an increasing number of countries in market system farms, most of them become recipients of mainly speculative capital. As a result, they suffer from a sharp discrepancy between the speed of its movement and the timing of the creation of traditional, material technologies, in which they specialize. Large-scale investments of speculative capital, which are encouraged by government policies aimed at premature liberalization of financial transactions, are ineffective for countries with underdeveloped economic structure and export base. Capital leaves without having time to create anything real and leaving behind only destruction.
The opposite view of globalization is expressed in American financier circles, who believe that the world is living in a period similar to that of the Industrial Revolution. Only today we are talking about computers and telecommunications, a revolution in technology that increases productivity, economic growth, promotes global financial and technological integration, under the influence of which competition intensifies and the pricing mechanism that operates in corporations is destroyed, which restrains inflation. And when inflation is under control, the possibility of increasing people's living standards increases.
The development of the American economy over the past decade confirms this optimism. While many economists doubt that the rebound in productivity growth in American economy will continue, and they fear that it is caused by a speculative boom, as was already the case in the mid-80s in the economy of Great Britain, and somewhat later in Japan, to deny the leading position of the United States in the creation and dissemination of high information technologies and the role of these technologies in increasing the dependence of various financial markets among themselves and all together from the economic and financial influence of the United States is not necessary.
The pioneers in the development of these technologies - the United States - attract the most mobile form of financial capital - speculative capital. The short period of its circulation corresponds to the speed of development of information technologies and is of a production nature for their recipient.
Therefore, globalization as a reflection of the strengthening of American influence in the world and their desire to ensure information transparency of all countries through the use of standard methods of statistics, accounting, reporting, auditing, techniques for performing commercial and financial transactions, as well as methods of macroeconomic regulation adequate for analysis and forecasting, is a convincing reality. .
In modern conditions, it is interesting to pay attention to the trends in the development of the global financial market and its main indicators in a crisis.
What is happening today in the United States and in the global economy as a whole is not a "normal" recession, but a combination of an unusually large-scale "deleveraging" (deleveraging - reducing the debt burden) and deflation associated with a sharp reduction in liquidity due to the cessation of lending by everyone to everyone. Such processes occur less frequently than recessions - one can only cite the examples of the "Great Depression" in the United States, the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s and Japan of the 1990s. The slowdown in lending in Russia is presented below.
Diagram 2.3. Slowdown in the growth of loans to the population and enterprises (in % to the previous month)
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As a manuscript
Arkhipova Violetta Valerievna
dissertations for a degree
candidate economic sciences
Moscow - 201
The work was carried out at the Center for International Macroeconomics Research of the Federal State budget institution Science Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Scientific Doctor of Economics Supervisor: Golovnin Mikhail Yurievich Official Butorina Olga Vitalievna opponents: Doctor of Economics, Professor, Deputy Director for Research, Chief Researcher of the European Integration Research Department of the Federal State Budgetary Institution "Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences"
Khudyakova Lyudmila Semyonovna Candidate of Economic Sciences, Head. Global economic problems and Foreign Economic Policy of the Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science “Institute of World Economy and International Relations named after E.M. Primakov of the Russian Academy of Sciences"
Leading Federal State Educational Budget Organization: Higher Education Institution "Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation" (Financial University), Moscow
The defense of the dissertation will take place on March 15, 2016 at 14:00 at a meeting of the dissertation council for the defense of doctoral and master's theses D 002.009.0 at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences at the address: 117418, St.
Moscow, st. Novocheremushkinskaya st., 42a.
The dissertation can be found in the library of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences at the address: 117418, Moscow, st. Novocheremushkinskaya, 42a., as well as on the website of the organization http://inecon.org/docs/Arkhipova_dissertation.pdf.
http://inecon.org/dissertaczionnye-sovety/.
Scientific secretary of the dissertation council D 002.009.02 candidate of political sciences Kuzmina Elena Mikhailovna
Relevance research topics. The role of the world financial system (MFS) in the modern conditions of globalization has changed radically.
On the one hand, international financial relations (IFIs) throughout history have been of key importance for the world economy, being, in fact, the vital circulatory system of its "organism". On the other hand, at the previous stage of development, the defining attribute of the global financial sector was the service of production and trade chains and cycles, i.e. it played a secondary role in relation to the so-called real sector of the world economy.
In the 1970s
mechanisms are launched for the IFS to enter the next - global - stage of development, during which, up to the present day, its predominant role in relation to the production and trade sector in the global economy, the ability to self-develop and generate new financial phenomena is manifested:
interconnected financial bubbles and global imbalances. Thus, in the modern world, the natural processes of systemic financial and economic development are violated (MFS plays not a secondary, but a primary role). This leads to the fact that in the global economy as a whole there are functional disorders. As a result, in modern conditions, the IFS is acquiring hypertrophied dimensions, internal systemic contradictions are growing, which manifested themselves in full during the long global financial and economic crisis (GFEC), the acute phase of which falls on 2007–2009. Among the features of this crisis, its systemic nature and large-scale geographical coverage in terms of the number of countries affected stand out.
The crisis stimulated a reassessment of a number of basic provisions of economic theory, increased attention to heterodox directions of economic thought (especially to the hypothesis of financial “fragility” by H.F. Minsky, the theory of financial “bubbles”, developed by Ch. focused on the analysis of the development of systemic instability and its devastating impact on the economy), as well as the search for new theoretical approaches to the study of MFIs.
Awareness of the need for changes in the IFS to address the consequences of the global economic and financial crisis and the possibility of its recurrence led to the launch of the processes of global financial reform initiated by the G20. Reform activity at the supranational level has been actively carried out since 2008 and has affected international standards banking, the functioning of systemically important financial institutions, the market for over-the-counter financial instruments and other areas.
However, the key problems of financial globalization remain unresolved and continue to destabilize the system.
The theoretical basis of the research and the degree of scientific development of the dissertation topic. The theoretical base of the dissertation is based on the works of leading scientists and researchers of IFIs and specific problems related to the development of the global financial system.
A special role is played by the works of the classics of general economic theory: M. Allais, J. M. Keynes, F. Quesnay, N. D. Kondratiev, K. Marx, L. Mises, H. F. Minsky, W. K. Mitchell, A Müller-Armac, V.Euken, F.Perroux, P.Samuelson, M.Friedman, F.Hayek, J.Hicks, I.Schumpeter.
The author also relied on works devoted to the study of various aspects of the functioning of the global financial system. Among the foreign researchers of the analyzed problems are R. Aliber, P. Atkinson, O. Blanchard, K. Borio, E. Brown, J. K. Galbraith, P. Disiatat, R. Cardarelli, Ch. Kindlberger, Gzh. .M.Coase, P.Krugman, R.Mundell, K.Medlen, Fr.S.Mishkin, M.Obstfeld, M.Pebro, K.Perez, E.Prasad, K.Reinhart, K.Rogoff, J.Sapir , J. Soros, J. Stiglitz, M. Terrons and others.
The dissertator actively used the developments of domestic researchers:
A.V. Anikin, O.T. Bogomolov, B.E. Brodsky, O.V. Butorina, N.A. Volgina, M.Yu. Golovnina, V.P. Gutnik, S.S. A.Drobyshevskaya, V.R.Evstigneev, G.B.Kleiner, I.S.Korolev, L.N.Krasavina, V.B.Kuvaldin, V.E.Manevich, A.D.Nekipelov, Yu.Ya. Olsevich, V.M. Polterovich, S.N. Silvestrov, D.V. Smyslov, B.A. Kheifets, A.G.
The above researchers managed to comprehensively study the factors and stages of development of the world monetary system, analyze production and financial cycles, assess the causes and consequences international movement capital, justify the emergence of financial "bubbles" and crises in various countries, etc. Despite the importance of the results of research conducted by the aforementioned theorists and practitioners, the problems of developing and reforming the global financial system remain relevant. However, questions about the search for universal indicators of the development of the IFS, about improving the methods for diagnosing the problems of financial globalization of the 21st century, analyzing the phenomenon of the global financial “bubble”, defining criteria for effective global financial reform, and developing a theoretical basis for systemic transformation remain open.
The purpose of the study is to search for patterns in the development of the IFS, as well as to assess the prospects for the functioning of the system and develop specific proposals for its transformation.
formulate the most complete definition of the global financial system, 1.
highlight the prerequisites and specific historical stages of the emergence and development of the IFS;
identify and compare character traits systems at each stage of its evolution;
identify and analyze the problems of the current stage of development of the IFS;
evaluate the role of the global financial and economic crisis in the history of the IFS;
analyze theoretical and practical approaches to transformation 5.
global financial relations and reforming the MFS;
offer their own approaches to reforming the IFS.
The object of the study is the global financial system and its development in the 1980s–2010s. Subject of study became the functioning of the IFS, the problems of its development at the present stage and possible ways of global reform.
The chronological framework of the dissertation research covers the period from the 1860s to the 1860s. until 2014, with a particular focus on the period of financial globalization (1990–2014).
The methodological basis of the study as a whole is based on the scheme of D.N. Keynes’s positive-normative analysis: a positive assessment of the actual situation is formulated, a fundamentally different normative formation of the ideal takes place (a departure from the philosophy of neoliberalism), previously proposed ones are considered and new practical recommendations are developed, again of a normative nature.
The study is based on the principles of formal logic, statistical methods, econometric (including work with time series, the Granger test), network and comparative analysis. The internal logic and history of the development of the IFS are revealed in the dissertation with the help of the basic philosophical laws of Hegel-Engels and tectology of A.A. Bogdanov. The author of the dissertation also relies on modern theories of the world economy and financial macroeconomics. Thus, a methodological (in the narrow sense) and ontological (as a certain picture of reality) representation and study of the problem under consideration is proposed.
The empirical basis for the dissertation research includes statistical data provided by the International Monetary Fund and published for various years in the World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Reports. In addition, the author mainly used the historical databases Historical Statistics for Economy by A. Maddison and the Historical Dataset of the Institute for International Integration Studies, specially designed Becker-Bloom-Davis indices, financial statistics and reports of the Bank for International Settlements on the functioning of global markets, World Development Indicators Database and Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association Data, Bloomberg analytical materials, The Banker ratings and estimates, International Trade and Market Access Data from the World Trade Organization, data from the annual reports of the McKinsey Global Institute and UNCTAD, the UN Regional Commissions, and also databases of national statistical offices, ministries of finance, systemically important banking and non-banking financial intermediaries, hosted on websites and provided on the basis of official requests.
Field of study. The topic of the dissertation work corresponds to the Passport of the chosen specialty scientific works nicknames 08.00.14 – World economy, in particular p. 2 (“Theories of the development of the world economy and international economic relations. Analysis and evaluation of modern concepts”), p. 4 (“Internationalization of economic life. Globalization economic activity, its factors, stages, directions and forms. Interaction between regional integration and economic globalization”), p. 9 (“International economic organizations, their role in regulating the world economy. Russia’s participation in them”), p. 12 (“The world monetary system, trends in its further evolution. Currency zones. World reserve and regional currencies”), paragraph 14 (“The world stock market, its mechanisms and role in the development of individual countries and the world economy as a whole. Internationalization of activities stock exchanges”), p. 15 (“International flows of loan capital, direct and portfolio investments, problems of their regulation at the national and supranational levels”), p. 24 (“International activities of banks, investment and insurance companies, pension funds and other financial institutions” ) passports of this specialty.
The most significant results of the study, reflecting its complex nature, scientific novelty, are summarized and presented in the key provisions submitted for defense:
The development of the IFS occurs in stages and is cyclical, it is possible 1.
identify 4 qualitative stages in the development of the IFS;
the modern stage of development of the IFS is characterized by an increase in internal 2.
the contradictions that led to the emergence of the global financial and economic crisis and have not yet been overcome;
The key problems of the current stage of development of the IFS include 3.
the formation of a global financial "bubble" and the global spread of "contagion effects";
ongoing reforms of the MFS, mainly aimed at 4.
on improving the legal and regulatory framework at all levels, implementing effective financial supervision, solving the problems of systemically important financial institutions and increasing the transparency of financial markets and relevant international assessments, have not led to the elimination of threats to financial globalization;
successful reform of the IFS should be based on the principles of gradualism and 5.
heterodox theoretical foundations ah, it is aimed at "removing" the global nature of crises and maintaining the MFS's serving role in the global economy.
Scientific novelty thesis lies in the fact that this paper made one of the first attempts to identify the key features of the functioning of the IFS during the global financial and economic crisis, which the author dates from 2007 to the present.
to the present, in the context of its continuous formation and transformation. In particular, at work:
Applied A complex approach to the definition and identification of historical 1.
periods of development of the IFS, based on 1) the author's interpretation of the philosophical tektological concept of A.A. Bogdanov, 2) analysis of the dynamics of the Obstfeld-Taylor mobility index of international capital, and 3) the generally accepted chronology of the transformation of the world monetary system. Bogdanov's tektology is used in the work for the methodological substantiation of the periodization of the development of the IFS and the determination of the objective factors of the systemic formation of modern MFIs. As a result, 4 qualitative stages and 8 sub-periods in the development of the IFS were identified.
A new classification of existing in the global financial 2.
system (GFS) of types of “contamination” effects. The author highlights the global intermarket effect associated with the "infection" of systemic components (global financial markets); global network effect, reflecting the transfer of financial problems from one systemically important financial intermediaries to others (thus, the destabilizing role of large financial speculators, who deliberately unbalance the MFS in order to obtain short-term profits, is emphasized); cross-country "wave" and "monsoon" effects arising from the transfer of financial "infection" in the first case from developed countries to developed countries, in the second case - from developed countries to developing countries and countries with economies in transition. The interpretation of the “monsoon” effect has been expanded beyond the scope of exclusively foreign trade aspects.
Based on a variation of schematic network analysis and econometric test 3.
Granger, a study of the concentration observed in the sphere of interaction between banking and non-banking financial intermediaries was carried out, and elements of the system were identified that are areas of increased financial risks (global credit and derivatives markets).
An analysis of the factors that caused the formation of a system-wide risk allowed 4.
identify specific sources of its concentration (“nodes” of the network of global financial players, separate areas). In addition, the paradoxical nature of the activities of large financial intermediaries, which artificially create various risks (including systemic ones) as a result of their own functioning, and at the same time, trying to reduce them, form a system of excessive global insurance (reinsurance) is revealed.
Analyzed the systemic relationship between different types of financial 5.
"bubbles" and provides evidence of the existence of a global financial "bubble" (GFP) as an object of generating the IFS at the stage of the global stage of its development, the result of the process of international movement of financial capital under the influence of the work of negative financial effects and the state of its increased concentration.
It is shown that the GUF is a single set of both systemically related geographic (with the allocation of affected regions and countries) and transnational agency "bubbles" (mainly global banks-"bubbles" with artificially increased assets), and their structural chains passing through global financial markets. The period of the emergence of the GUF (1980s) is revealed, the features of this financial phenomenon, which is a confirmation of systemic self-development and one of the consequences of the aggravation of system-wide risks, are given, the cause-and-effect relationships between the global financial “bubble” and the GFEC are determined.
Suggested comprehensive assessment of the results carried out for the period 2008–2013.
global financial reforms from the standpoint of a heterodox gradualist approach and the tasks of ensuring sustainable development of the global and national farms systems. A "tree" of scenarios for the systemic transformation of the IFS was built and specific practical recommendations for its successful reform were outlined. A comprehensive algorithm for the transformation of the IFS has been proposed: 1) fundamental reforms that require global cooperation (creation of a common theoretical and ideological setting, a supervisory and regulatory global network, a system of adaptation measures, and reforms in the tax and monetary spheres); 2) supporting measures that support fundamental reforms and accompanying transformations that go beyond the scope of global finance, based on international initiatives (the measures identified and recommended by the author for continuation, initiated by the G20); 3) transformational changes implemented at the regional and national levels (solution of internal problems and transplantation of international standards). The specifics of the global financial reform strategy proposed by the author is their emphasis on the financial rather than on the monetary sphere.
The scientific and theoretical significance of the study lies in the improvement of general scientific ideas about the development and reform of the IFS, as well as the application of non-standard theoretical approaches to its analysis. The results of this study can find their practical application in the field of activity of international monetary and financial organizations, central banks of various countries (including the Russian Federation), transnational companies, financial institutions - commercial banks, hedge funds, stock exchanges, etc., actively operating in the global financial markets. The author's ideas, developments, methods and results of the research presented in the dissertation were successfully applied in the course of industrial practice in the Analytical Department of the Administration of the Council of the Federation (2012) and in the work of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation (2013-2014).
Basic provisions dissertation research can be used when reading the courses "International Monetary, Financial and Credit Relations", "World Economy", "Applied Macroeconomics", "Philosophy and Methodology of Economic Science" in universities.
Approbation of the dissertation work took place in the form of participation in scientific conferences and seminars, writing analytical notes and reports for the Center for Globalization Problems Russian economy FGBUN of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Research results were used for the report on the topics of the state task “The influence of external factors on the monetary and foreign exchange spheres of the Russian economy” (2012) and “Instability of the world economy and its impact on Russia” (2013–2014). The issues considered in the dissertation were raised by the author in the framework of reports at the I and II Russian Economic Congresses (Moscow-2009, Suzdal-2013);
international conference of students, graduate students and young scientists "Lomonosov"
(Moscow, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013); 2nd student conference “World Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Russian Economy” (Moscow, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
M.V. Lomonosov, 2009); 10th annual Russian-German seminar (Germany, Frankfurt am Main, Goethe University, 2009); seminar of young scientists on international economic and political research (Moscow, IE RAS, 201); conference of young scientists "Russia and the world: the search for new models of economic development" (Moscow, IE RAS, 2011); seminars “Numerical Methods and Optimization in Finance” (Switzerland, Geneva, University of Geneva, 2011); I Scientific and Educational Conference "Energy Economics as a Research Area: Advanced Frontiers and Everyday Reality" (Moscow, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 2012); conference of young scientists "World economy: modern challenges and their impact on Russia"
(Moscow, IE RAS, 2013); III International youth forum of financiers (Moscow, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 2013).
Publications. Based on the results of the dissertation research, scientific papers were published with a total volume of 4.2 p.p., including 4 articles with a total volume of 2.7 p.p.
The structure and scope of the dissertation. The dissertation consists of an introduction, 3 chapters, a conclusion, a list of references, an appendix. The volume of the main text of the work consists of 203 pages, the list of references contains 325 items. The main text of the thesis includes 5 tables and 28 figures.
INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………………………
1.1. Theoretical foundations for the development of the global financial system……………….10
1.2. Characterization of the main stages of the emergence and evolution of the IFS (1860 - end.
1970s)……………………………………………………………………………..33
1.3. The process of development of the IFS into a global form of financial interaction……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
2.1. The contradictory nature and features of the development of the global financial system………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….73
2.2. Financial “bubbles” and global imbalances…………………………………………………………104
2.3. The financial crisis at the present stage of development of the IFS……………….....134
3.1. Principles of reform and assessment of the initial stage of the global transformation of the IFS…………………………………………………………………….154
3.2. Development of transformation scenarios and a long-term strategy for the development of the IFS………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… …………………………………………………………..195 LIST USED LITERATURE…………………………………………...204 APPENDIX………………………………………………………………………… ………..225 Content and main problems of the study II.
In accordance with the goal and key objectives of the research, the following groups of scientific problems are analyzed and developed in the dissertation.
The first group of problems considered within the framework of this dissertation is related to the definition of the theoretical foundations of the functioning and historical stages of the development of the IFS.
The basic financial theories identified by us were combined into 3 large blocks. The first contains the ideological framework of the IFO, the main principles of which are set out in the works of the followers of neoliberalism, Western Marxism, institutionalism, dirigisme and post-Keynesianism.
The second block covers key financial concepts, among which we have chosen hypotheses about efficient markets and financial “fragility”, macroeconomic models with financial “bubbles”, several generations of models of financial crises and “contagion” effects as representative ones. The third block includes the main postulates of the theory of the international movement of capital, formulated within the framework of various economic schools. Thus, the proposed scheme for reviewing an array of theoretical works provides an opportunity for a comprehensive study of the IFS. The analysis of the threats of financial globalization and the construction of the vector of global financial reforms are based on the ideas of late monetary post-Keynesianism shared by the author of the thesis about the effectiveness of the functioning of the IFS and the positive effect of the international movement of capital only if there is a necessary level of control and management of financial processes.
Multivariate analysis of the global financial history based on 3 classifiers:
systemic (in terms of A.A. Bogdanov), statistical (in terms of Obstfeld-Taylor) and formal (structural) or by phases of development of the world monetary system1.
According to Bogdanov's tectology2, the IFS has gone through 4 important stages:
pre-launch stage, or the formation of prerequisites for the birth before 1860
(major events - the emergence of money, banks, fractional reserve technology and credit, bonds, joint-stock companies and the "embryonic" version of derivative securities);
2, 3. mechanical complexion with the formation of systemic elements and conjugation (or the emergence of structural bonds) 1860–1914. with the first "wave" of financial globalization 1870–1914. (time lags between the periods of complexion and conjugation for the system are small and are not separated by us in time);
ingression, or system-wide changes:
non-cardinal (that is, without the emergence of new progressive quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the system) 1914–1945. with World Wars I and II as external circumstances that intervened in the natural course of the development of the IFS and subjected it to survival tests, as well as with the global financial and economic crisis of 1929–1933;
1 The structure and analysis of the study is built on the basis of sl. Materials: Bogdanov A.A. Tectology: General organizational science / ed. V.V. Popkova, G.D. Gloveli, V.D. Mekhrekov. M.: "Finance", 2003. S. 20Obstfeld M., Taylor A.M. Globalization and Capital Markets // NBER. March 2002 Working Paper 8846. P.
16-58; Taylor A.M. External Imbalances and Financial Crises // INF Conference. 2012. August-September. P. 2-5;
Reinhart K.M., Rogoff K.S. This time everything will be different. The mechanisms of financial crises have been the same for eight centuries. M.: Career Press, 2012. S. 392-394; Volgina N.A. International economics: tutorial. M.: Eksmo, 2006. S. 560-581.
2 See: Bogdanov A.A. Decree op. pp. 20-367.
non-cardinal 1945–1970 with the temporary loss and subsequent return by the financial markets of their reputation and post-war financial and economic recovery;
cardinal with the formation of prerequisites for the emergence of the second "wave"
financial globalization of 1970–1980, the period of transformation of the IFS into the global financial system of the 1980s - con. 1990s and rapid generation system development in 2000–2007.
Since 2007, the IFS has been at the stage of a radical ingression with the global financial and economic crisis.
The complexion, conjugation and ingression stages of the development of the object of study account for about 5-6 clearly defined zones (containing 8 phases), with frequent changes in the Obstfeld-Taylor mobility index of international capital - two with low and moderate capital mobility (periods 1860–1880 and 1945– 1980), two - with a high index (periods 1880-1914 and from 1980 to the present) and two (according to Obstfeld-Taylor's studies, one - for 1914-1945) - special (1914-1945 and 1980–2014), called “cyclical” due to the corresponding bends of the curve and the presence of upward and downward trends in the sections of the chart under consideration, as well as 4 evolutionary “steps” of the MVS from the Parisian from 1867 through the Genoese (1922–1931) and Bretton Woods (1944–1971) to Jamaican (since 1976).
The used set of classifiers also makes it possible to single out two major qualitative periods in the development of international financial relations in the form of the following system “shells”:
The initial phase of systemic evolution is the formation of the global financial I.
systems (1860s-1980s) as simultaneously: an integral complex of 3 components, namely the world financial markets (currency, stock and banking services), and their structural links (an important role for world intermarket cooperation is played by the world monetary system and international monetary and financial organizations); forms of organization of MFIs, the main participants of which are commercial banks, states, international monetary and financial organizations; serving and backbone element of the world economy; special education that emerged in the course of development and close interaction of national financial systems.
of the global financial system (the period of the IFS transition to this stage of development - II.
1980s - 1990s) as at the same time: an integral object, which is a unity of 4 components homogeneous in terms of tasks, closely related and comprehensively interacting with each other (global markets for currency, securities, banking services and financial innovations); a complex of the listed system elements with an increasingly complex internal structure and their emerging global financial architecture (GFA is a structural category that includes formal and informal ties and institutions, guiding rules and standards applied by the subjects economic activity in the financial sector of the global economy3); historically the 2nd after the IFS stage of evolution and forms of systemic organization of synchronized processes of financial development and MFIs, the main participants of which are international and regional monetary and financial organizations, international integration groups, TNCs, as well as global banks and non-banking financial intermediaries, infrastructure organizations ( exchanges); a particularly dynamic and expanding subsystem of the global economy; stage of development of the IFS, the emergence of which is associated with the emergence of financial innovations, the movement of large-scale flows of "hot" money.
The second group of problems analyzed in the dissertation is due to the study of the correlation of system-wide and conditional national benefits4 and the threats of modern financial globalization, for which they were identified, grouped into homogeneous classes, and a schematic comparative analysis was carried out. The shortcomings of the GFS include non-financial threats of globalization associated with the psychological and historical features of the development of the system (“collective irrational”, “unfavorable selection” of financial institutions), theories and ideological attitudes created (neoliberal teleology, the dominance of “mainstream” theories), mainly financial difficulties of the GFS and negative consequences of domestic generation, negative transformation of production processes (financialization of the global economy, threats of transnationalization, negative changes in pricing processes for a number of commodities)5.
3 By analogy with the definition of A.V. Anikin, see Anikin A.V. History of financial turmoil. Russian crisis in the light of world experience. M.: CJSC "Olimp-Business", 2009. P.327.
4 Identified by the author based on: Prasad E.S., Rogoff K., Wei S.-J., Kose M.A. 1) Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence // IMF. 2003. Occasional paper 220, p. 13; 2) Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal // IMF. 2006. August. Working Paper WP/06/189. P. 5-6, 34-35.
5 Identified by the author based on: Borio, C., Disyatat, P. Global imbalances and financial crisis: Link or no link // BIS. May 2011 Working Papers No. 346; Kheifets, B.A. Global imbalances and reform of the global financial system // Money and credit. 2012. No. 7. pp. 48-56; Stiglitz, J.E. Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability // World Development. Washington, D.C. 2000 Vol. 28. No. 6. P. 1075-1086.
As a result of the study, it was possible to establish that the internal contradictions and problems of the IFS at the stage of financial globalization turn out to be disproportionately greater than the advantages of the system and threaten the normal functioning of its own internal structure and components. The impact of financial globalization on the global economy is determined by the net negative effect. The presented conclusion is substantiated, on the one hand, by the conventionality prevailing over the system of obtaining positive effects from financial globalization, on the other hand, by the fact that the shortcomings of the SFS manifested themselves in the form of an increase in systemic contradictions and led to the emergence and development of the GFEC.
In addition, the validity of the ratio of threats and benefits of the SFS that we have determined is evidenced by its fundamental problems: the existence of a global financial “bubble” and global imbalances, which are both negative objects of system generation and new threats to financial globalization that have arisen in the course of its self-development. GFP is an object of negative generation of GFS, the result of the process of international movement of financial capital (through the work of negative financial effects) and the state of its increased concentration; a single set of both systemically connected geographic and transnational agency "bubbles" and their structural "chains". In accordance with the above definition of HFP, the following features were identified. First, the emergence of a global financial “bubble” in the GFS dates back to the 1980s. XX century. It is from this time that there has been an active increase in the threats of the second “wave” of financial globalization that have taken root in the systemic “organism”. In other words, HFP arose in a system with unstable internal development. In order to identify the most advanced period in the development of the GUF, when this financial phenomenon becomes the most dangerous for the functioning of the global financial system, we have specially used a general aggregate indicator of cross-border capital flows, including the volume of direct foreign investment, loans and deposits, purchase of foreign shares and bonds for 1980–20126. It turned out that 2003-2007. turn out to be the most saturated interval in the history of the system, which includes a surge in the activity of the GFP, its partial collapse in a number of segments of the GFS and the beginning of the global financial and economic crisis.
McKinsey Global Institute analysis (2013), IMF Balance of Payments, IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 2013).
Secondly, HFP has the ability to move in the system due to the presence of various negative financial effects7:
spillover effect (negative spillover effect-1, NSE-1) associated with the development of 1) fundamental intermarket financial relations based on the interaction of financial players both at the level of the GFS components and in the intercountry (geographical) financial space;
spillover effect (NSE-2), which creates a negative qualitative and 2) quantitative impact of the GFS on the real sector of the global economy;
side effect (NSE-3), which is usually associated with a cardinal 3) transformation of fundamental financial relations and is expressed in the form of a transfer of financial problems that arose at time t–1 from one financial actor or group of them to another / them, i.e. in geographic and intermarket spaces.
A feature of this financial effect is that it is regarded as a response of financial players to expected events or processes and is observed with a pronounced time lag;
effect of "infection" (contagion effect). Like a side effect, financial 4) “infection” is directly related to the fundamental transformation of fundamental financial ties and is the transfer of financial problems (stresses, crises) from one financial player or group of them to another/them. However, the characteristic feature of "contagion" is that it is an unexpected, almost instantaneous chain reaction that propagates in the system with great speed and leads in the short term to a "leap" into a new equilibrium set.
This effect has several variations:
the global intermarket effect associated with the "infection" of various o segments of the global financial markets;
the global network effect is an agency and intermarket financial phenomenon, o reflecting the negative results of a high degree of concentration of banking and 7 Effects were defined taking into account the following. works: Forbes K.J., Rigobon R. Measuring Contagion: Conceptual and Empirical Issues. 1999. http://web.mit.edu; Claessens S., Dornbush R., Park Y.C.
Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads. // World Bank Research Observer. 2000 Vol. 52. No. 2. P. 177-197;
Kaminsky G.L., Reinhart C.M., Vegh C.A. The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion // Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2003 Vol. 17. No. 4. P. 51-74; Bickhandani S., Hirshleifer D., Welch I. A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades // The Journal of Political Economy. 1992. October. Vol.
100. No. 5. P. 992-1026; Stiglitz J.E. Contagion, Liberalization, and the Optimal Structure of Globalization // Journal of Globalization and Development. 2010 Vol. 1. Issue 2. Article 2. R. 1-39; Financial Contagion in the Era of Globalized Banking? // OECD Economics Department Policy Notes. June 2012. No. 14. R. 3-8; Glasserman P., Young H.P. How Likely is Contagion in Financial Networks? // Office of Financial Research. June 21. 2013.
Working Paper #0009. R. 1-28.
non-bank backbone intermediaries in the GFS and representing an almost instantaneous "chain reaction" of financial problems and hard-to-prevent cascading fiascos of global players;
the global “wave” effect is a geographical financial phenomenon, o associated with the spread of the “contagion” effect from a developed country (group of countries) to developed countries through all existing financial channels;
global "monsoon" effect or geographical financial phenomenon, o arising from the transfer of financial "infection" from a developed country (group of countries) to developing countries and countries with economies in transition.
Thirdly, the main financial intermediaries of the global financial network act as the “engines” of the GUF, which allows the financial capital directed by them to overcome spatial boundaries and minimize travel time.
The results of the functioning of a number of banking and non-banking intermediaries have led to the formation of entire agglomerations of financial activity or global financial centers (GFCs), operating in several GFS segments at once and uniting countries and continents. The GFCs were called “global financial hubs” and the established network of global financial players8. According to steel "knots"
According to experts from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the highest market share of hubs in the global financial sector is registered in the UK (22%), the USA (13%) and France (6.6%)9. These three countries also lead in terms of the quality of the network “nodes” listed above.
Fourthly, there are several types of HFP manifestations:
global intermarket (movement through system components). A comprehensive 1) study of these processes is significantly simplified and accelerated by using the methodology of the Basel Committee, based on the construction and monitoring of the dynamics of 3 classes of global financial indicators in key segments of global financial markets10;
The network diagram is built in the work on the basis of the following. Sources: Nagurney A., Wakolbinger T. Supernetworks: An Introduction to the Concept and its Applications with a Specific Focus on Knowledge Supernetworks // International Journal of Knowledge, Culture and Change Management 4, 2004. P. 1523-1530; Markose S.M. Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives: A Network Analysis of Contagion and Its Mitigation with Super-Spreader Tax // IMF.
2012. Working Paper Draft.
9 BIS banking statistics 2012-2013; Research on global financial stability: the use of BIS international financial statistics // BIS. June 2010. CGFS papers #40. P. 74-79.
global intermediary network (the transformation of global financial TNCs into 2) transnational "bubbles" is studied by analyzing market capitalization by "backbone" financial intermediaries in dynamics);
a set of systemically interconnected serial and parallel 3) regional geographical episodes within the HFP:
hidden11 Hispanic (1977–1981);
complete Japanese and Scandinavian: Norway, Finland, Sweden (1985–1989);
hidden Latin American (first half of the 1990s, followed by crises in Mexico in 1994, in Argentina in 1995) and full Asian (Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines, 1992– 1997);
hidden Latin American and European in emerging markets (con.
1990s - early. 2000s, among the most affected countries are the Czech Republic 1997, Russia 1998, Ecuador 1998-1999, Brazil 1999, Turkey 2000, Argentina 20001-2002, Uruguay 2002. );
full American plural (US, 1995–2008) and interrupted Chinese #1 (2007–2008);
interrupted Chinese #2 (2009–2010).
Finally, the study found that often various “harmful” global imbalances (sectoral, trade, funded, cross-country income and sectoral, reformatory) are of a financial “nature”, arise and / or intensify as a result of the development of the GFP.
As a result of the growth and aggravation of internal systemic threats to financial globalization and generation, as well as problems and features of the development of the economy of a number of countries and regions, a global economic crisis, the acute phase of which occurred in 2007–2009. A feature of the GFEC was the system-wide nature and the duration of its manifestation. The GFEC originated in the US financial system and spread to other states mainly through the financial channels of "contagion", while all the components of the GFCS were involved. The “wave” type of the “contagion” effect was clearly manifested in the system, spreading to European countries. The global crisis penetrated into developing countries and countries with economies in transition through, mainly, trade and financial “transmission lines” and purely financial “monsoons” (close credit relationships with banking and banking). attempts by investors to get rid of money by investing in illiquid assets) the geographic “bubble” cycle in terms of Kindleberger-Aliber.
non-bank intermediaries from developed countries, elasticity stock markets, "sudden stop" and subsequent outflow of portfolio investment).
The third group of problems, which the dissertation is aimed at, is connected with the global financial transformation of the 21st century. and development of specific proposals to improve the effectiveness of SFS reforms.
First of all, using the Granger mutual causality test for a multidimensional system of equations for various financial and economic indicators, we determine those elements and structural "links" of the GFS that are the most active sources and distributors of systemic problems and, accordingly, need to be transformed the most. . The analysis carried out shows that the main systemic threats are concentrated in the work of the global markets for credit and derivative financial instruments.
By reforming the IFS at the present stage of evolution, we mean transformations that will solve existing systemic problems and improve its functioning in such a way as to achieve a general “recovery” and a gradual, stable, sustainable progressive12 development of the entire system. In practice, the G-20 stands out as the leading reformer at the global level.
Specific areas of reform initiatives for MFS at the current stage of development relate to the sphere of GFAs, the global market for financial innovation and securitized products, credit rating agencies, systemically important financial institutions, hedge funds, short selling, reporting standards, remuneration systems and taxes13. Based on the analysis of cause-and-effect relationships based on the Granger test, the proposed directions for transformation are adequate to reality.
However, a review of the G-20's chosen global reform agenda and proposed initiatives found the following shortcomings:
The absence of a theoretical basis and algorithm for reforms, a built-in system of accountability and responsibility of authorized institutions.
Within the framework of this study, the concept is adopted, according to which the development of the system occurs through creative crises. It is assumed that the stage of progressive development of the system will last from the period of overcoming the existing contradictions of the State Fiscal Service and several years after the end of the SFEC.
Sources: Zhukova T.V., Levchenko A.V., Bakhtaraeva K.B., Loginov A.A. Modern trends in reforming the global financial architecture / ed. prof., doctor of economics Mirkina Ya.M. M.: Ministry of Education and Science of Russia, 2011. June; Basel III: A global Regulatory framework for more resilient banks and banking systems // BCBS. December 2010 (rev June 2011); Global Regulatory Reform Proposals. Side-by-side Comparisons and Timelines // GFMA Matrix. March 31, 2013.
The "anti-crisis" summits and action plans for them were not aimed at eliminating the causes of the GFEC, but at stopping it and leveling the consequences. As a result, the so-called “preparatory” reforms were counteracted by the internal negative forces of the State Fiscal Service.
Periods life cycle The State Fiscal Service is defined incorrectly, therefore, there is a threat of separation of phased tasks and plans for further reform from reality.
The transition from the preparatory stage to the fundamental reforms of the State Fiscal Service was not implemented in practice. First, a number of ongoing reforms did not bring significant changes. For example, the actions taken to level the problem of "systemically important financial institutions" do not make fundamental changes in the topology of the network of financial intermediaries. The postponed adoption of global tax measures in relation to financial transactions, in our opinion, delays the decision on the issue of increased financial concentration. Second, the full implementation of some reforms requires a long adjustment period for business entities.
Finally, a number of specific financial threats are ignored or deserve closer attention on the part of reformers, namely the problem of SFG and the effects of "contagion", the accumulation of crisis phenomena in the SFS, the preservation of systemic monocentrism, network concentration and financial hypertrophy, the expansion of shadow banking (including the activities of mutual and pension funds, offshorization, etc.).
The risk of falling into an investment trap remains: the greater the cost of implementing an action plan, the less likely it is to be abandoned, even if it turns out to be untenable.
Global financial reforms have a clear bias towards changes in the financial architecture at various levels, i.e. are, for all their scope, limited. At the same time, no emphasis is placed on improving and strengthening international financial and economic relations proper as an act of public will.
There is a threat of creating a systemic “overregulation”. It is imperative to determine the degree of freedom left for the participants in the system.
The start of the transformation of the SFS from transformations into the SFA, in which one of the key roles is assigned to the IMF, did not strengthen the overall positive perception of the reforms due to the negative image of this organization.
Can't run at the same time a large number of reforms, it is necessary to achieve the emergence of a natural positive spillover effect.
The absence of large concentrated and organized groups of economic players that will support global financial reforms, as well as the lack of an active and continuously working professional PR company in favor of system-wide financial transformation.
Legally indeterminate global reformer status (G-20 is not subject to international law and exercises only advisory influence) and an indefinite system of relationships between institutions that direct the processes of global transformation.
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Introduction
At present, almost all countries use the advantages of the international division of labor, specialization and cooperation. The increasing internationalization of production is forcing enterprises, government banks and individuals enter the world market.
Work principles economic entity in the foreign market in many respects differ from the principles of its work in the domestic market. That is why, when entering international market a huge number of economic and political circumstances must be taken into account. In particular, in the foreign market, an enterprise is faced with a large number of currencies, the need to pay its obligations with acceptable means of payment, assess all kinds of risks arising from the implementation of foreign economic activity, as well as follow the requirements and recommendations of international institutions, conventions and treaties.
The purpose of the work is to determine the prospects for the development of international monetary and financial relations. In accordance with the goal, the following tasks were set and solved in the work:
1. To study the essence and structure of the World Monetary System.
2. Explore the features of the formation and stages of development of the World Monetary System.
3. Determine the prospects for the development of the World Monetary System.
The relevance of this topic is due to the fact that currency systems mediate currency relations that provide the necessary conditions for the implementation of reproduction within the world economy. The theoretical basis of the work was the works of domestic scientists-economists: Krasavina L.N., Avdeeva E.G., I.P. Nikolaev and others.
Textbooks were used to complete the work. study guides on economic theory, macroeconomics, international monetary and financial relations and international economic relations, articles in periodicals, monographs of theoretical economists.
1. Essence, tasks and functions of the world monetary system
Before trying to give a reasonable and clear definition of the MVS (World Monetary System), it is necessary to correctly define international monetary relations, that is, those relations that underlie this system. However, it is impossible to define relationships without considering key concepts such as "currency" and "currency relations".
Currency (from Italian valuta - price, cost, English currency) - the country's monetary unit used in international transactions. Accordingly, the national currency is the currency established by the legislation of this state.
Due to the appearance of currencies, certain relations have developed, called currency relations. Currency relations are activities related to the functioning of international (world) money.
International monetary relations are a set of social relations that develop during the functioning of the currency in the world economy and ensure the mutual exchange of the results of the activities of national economies. The creation of an effective monetary mechanism for the uninterrupted implementation of world economic relations has become the central task of the international financial system.
Thus, having explained a little the meaning and features of international monetary relations, we can define the monetary system.
currency system- a form of organization and regulation of foreign exchange relations, enshrined in national legislation or interstate agreements. There are national, world and regional currency systems.
Historically, in the beginning, national currency systems arose, fixed by national legislation, taking into account the norms of international law. The national monetary system is integral part the country's monetary system, although it is relatively independent and transcends national boundaries. The national monetary system is inextricably linked with the world monetary system.
The world monetary system is a historically established form of organization of international monetary relations fixed by interstate agreements. MVS was formed by the middle of the 19th century. the main task international monetary system - regulation of the sphere of international payments and currency markets to ensure sustainable economic growth, curbing inflation, maintaining the balance of foreign economic exchange and payment turnover of different countries. At this stage of the development of the MCS, the main functions that it performs are the following:
1. Mediation of international economic relations, that is, ensuring cooperation between states in economic matters, their cooperation in solving certain problems and achieving specific goals.
2. Ensuring payment and settlement turnover within the world economy. This function defines the AIM as a universal set of tools for financial agreement between countries, since it is the AIM that allows countries to conduct settlements with different monetary units.
3. Providing the necessary conditions for a normal reproduction process and the uninterrupted sale of manufactured goods.
4. Regulation and coordination of regimes of national currency systems, namely their successful interaction.
The nature of the functioning and stability of the WIM depend on the degree to which its principles correspond to the structure of the world economy, the alignment of forces and the interests of the leading countries. When these conditions change, a periodic crisis of the MVS occurs, which ends with its collapse and the creation of a new monetary system.
2. Features of formation and stages of development of the world monetary system
2.1 From gold coin to gold exchange standard
The world monetary system is a historically established form of organization of international monetary relations, fixed by interstate agreements. That is, monetary units different countries, each of which has its own national "uniform", mediate the process of international movement of goods, services, capital and labor.
The first world monetary system spontaneously formed in 1816 in Great Britain. Legally, it was formalized by an interstate agreement at the Paris Conference in 1867. In the book of A.V. Anikin's "Gold" says that, according to J. Galbraith, "legally, gold was recognized as the only form of world money at one rather little known conference in Paris in 1867." This organization the system of monetary circulation and international settlements assumed the attachment to gold monetary functions and the official establishment of a fixed gold parity of the national currency. The established gold parity was also the official price of gold. Gold coins were in circulation and had the force of legal tender. Central banks were required to exchange paper money for gold at par. Free import and export of gold in any form was allowed. The exchange rates of countries were fixed on the basis of gold parities of national monetary units and fluctuated only within the narrow limits of “gold points”, which were determined by the costs (mainly for transportation and insurance) associated with the movement of gold between countries.
Under the gold standard, the balance of payments was regulated largely spontaneously through the transfer of gold from one country to another through private channels. The state practically did not participate in the process of regulating international payments, and the official gold reserves were the main regulator of the imbalance in the balance of payments.
After the currency chaos that arose as a result of the First World War, a gold exchange standard was established based on gold and the leading currencies convertible into gold. Payment means in foreign currency, intended for international payments, began to be called mottos. The second world monetary system was legally formalized by an interstate agreement reached at the Genoa International Economic Conference in 1922. Its basis was gold and mottos - foreign currencies. After the First World War, the monetary and financial center moved from Western Europe to the United States. This was due to the following. The monetary and economic potential of the United States has increased significantly, and the export of capital has increased. In 1924, there was a redistribution of official gold reserves: 46% of the gold reserves of the capitalist countries were concentrated in the United States. The United States launched a struggle for the hegemony of the dollar, but it received the status of a reserve currency only after the Second World War.
The achieved currency stabilization was blown up by the world crisis of the 1930s.
The gold standard system corresponded to the conditions of the market of free competition. The functioning of the mechanism of international monetary settlements, based on the gold standard, was of great importance for the expansion of international economic relations, the formation of a single world economy. At the same time, the monetary system of the gold standard began to oppose the concentration and centralization of capital, create obstacles to the practice of pricing, prevent the covering of sharply increased domestic and external government spending by issuing paper money, and finally, hinder international trade and the export of capital abroad. Manipulating the exchange rate by devaluing or revaluing the currency, changing the discount interest rate, pursuing an inflationary or deflationary policy to regulate the movement of goods, services and capital. The use of international loans and credits - all this made it possible to maintain the balance of payments to a certain extent temporarily balanced and to postpone the repayment of the negative balance (at the expense of gold reserves) indefinitely. As a result, it became clear that the regular resumption of economic relations between partners of different countries makes it possible and necessary for them to accumulate foreign currency both in cash and in non-cash forms as a kind of reserve for the quick repayment of their obligations to partners of the country with this national currency. Hence the emergence of a structural crisis, and then, during the world economic crisis of 1929-1933, the destruction of the mechanism of the gold standard.
2.2 Bretton Woods monetary system
The development of a project for a new world monetary system began as early as April 1942, as countries feared shocks similar to the currency crisis of the First World War in the 30s. At an international conference held in 1944 in Bretton Woods (USA), the basic principles of a new international monetary and financial structure, which became known as the Bretton Woods system, were agreed upon. These principles were codified in the “Articles of Agreement” (charter) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adopted at the Bretton Woods Conference. The main characteristic features of the Bretton Woods monetary system were: gold retained its monopoly on the implementation of the final monetary settlements between countries, that is, on the performance of the function of a universal means of payment; however, the scale of the use of gold for the actual servicing of international circulation and its regulatory role in this area has significantly decreased. Along with gold, two national paper monetary units, the American dollar and the British pound sterling (in a much smaller amount), were widely used as international credit means of payment, instruments for calculating the balance of payments and reserve currencies in world circulation. Reserve currencies could be exchanged for gold.
The exchange rate ratio of currencies and their convertibility began to be carried out on the basis of fixed currency parities, expressed in dollars. Market exchange rates were not supposed to deviate up or down from the fixed official dollar parities of these currencies by more than 1%, that is, all capitalist currencies were rigidly “pegged” to the dollar. Devaluation over 10% was allowed only with the permission of the fund.
State bodies exercised a certain control over the functioning of the mechanism of international settlements and private currency turnover. Plus to this government bodies regulated the gold market, supporting by selling the metal from their reserves or buying it, the currency price of gold on the market, preventing its significant deviation from the official price.
At the same time, for the first time in history, international monetary and credit organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) were created. Interstate regulation of currency relations, coordination of monetary policy was carried out through the IMF. The IMF also provided loans in foreign currency to cover the deficit of balance of payments in order to support unstable currencies, and ensured foreign exchange cooperation between countries. The IMF ensured that member countries adhere to the unified code of principles of "international monetary cooperation", maintain their official currency parities, rates and free convertibility of currencies. A change in the parity or the establishment of currency restrictions was required in each separate case consent of the IMF management.
So, under pressure from the United States within the framework of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar standard was established - a world monetary system based on the dominance of the dollar. The dollar, the only currency convertible into gold, has become the base of currency parities, the predominant means of international settlements, the currency of intervention and reserve assets. This position of the dollar determined the economic superiority of the United States and weakened its competitors. The backbone of the dominance of the dollar was an acute shortage of dollars caused by a deficit in the balance of payments, especially in settlements with the United States, and a lack of gold and foreign exchange reserves.
The economic, energy and raw material crises of the 1960s destabilized the Bretton Woods system, and the change in the balance of power against the world background undermined its structural principles. Since the end of the 1960s, the economic, financial, monetary, and technological superiority of the United States over its competitors has gradually weakened. Western Europe and Japan, having strengthened their monetary and economic potential, began to push the American partner. Because the US used the dollar to cover its balance of payments deficit rather than gold, this led to a huge increase in short-term external debt in the form of dollar savings from foreign banks.
The crisis of the Bretton Woods system culminated in the spring and summer of 1971, when the main reserve currency was at its epicenter. The dollar crisis coincided with a long depression in the United States after the economic crisis of 1969-1970. The crisis of the American monetary system was expressed in its massive sale for gold and for stable currencies, as well as in the depreciation of the dollar. The most stable was the currency area of the French franc, which still exists today, uniting a number of Central African countries.
The search for a way out of the crisis culminated in the G-10 Washington Agreement on December 18, 1971. An agreement was reached on the following points:
1. Devaluation of the dollar by 7.89% and an increase in the official price of the dollar by 8.57% to 38 dollars. per ounce.
2. Revaluation of a number of currencies.
3. Expansion of limits for fluctuations in exchange rates from +/- 1% to +/- 2.25% of their parities and the establishment of central rates instead of currency parities.
4. Cancellation 10% customs duty USA.
The Washington Agreement temporarily smoothed over the contradictions, but did not eliminate them. In February-March 1973, the currency crisis hit the dollar again, and the price per ounce fell to 42.22%.
It can be concluded that the collapse of the second world monetary system was the lack of reserve funds (dollars, pounds sterling, gold), which led to a slowdown in world trade, while the excess led to the destabilization of the system of fixed exchange rates.
The crisis of the Bretton Woods monetary system has given rise to an abundance of currency reform projects. The agreement of countries - members of the IMF in Kingston (January 1976) was called the Jamaica Agreement. This agreement, figuratively known as the "Jamaican rum cocktail", defined the contours of a new international monetary system.
The basis of this system are floating exchange rates and a multi-currency standard. The transition to flexible exchange rates involved the achievement of three main goals:
equalization of inflation rates in different countries;
balancing the balance of payments;
expansion of opportunities for conducting an independent domestic monetary policy by individual central banks.
The novelty and peculiarity of the Jamaican monetary system was as follows: the SDR standard was introduced, or special drawing rights (“special drawing rights”), that is, “this is an international reserve asset, the emission of which is carried out by the IMF and distributed among member countries in proportion to their quotas in the IMF. SDRs do not have a material form of existence and appear only as an accounting entry in the accounts of central banks, as well as in a special account of the IMF. The SDR was introduced instead of the gold exchange standard. The official currency price of gold has been abolished, and it has also been declared that it is inadmissible to establish state or interstate control over the world gold markets in order to artificially freeze its price.
At the same time, decisions were made regarding the use of gold, which was at the disposal of the IMF. One-sixth of the gold reserve (and this amounted to 25 million troy ounces, or 777.6 tons) was returned by the IMF to the old members in exchange for their national currencies at the official price that existed before the Jamaica Agreement (35 SDR units per ounce) in proportion to their quotas in the capital of the Fund.
Thus, central banks were able to freely buy gold on the private market at prevailing prices there and make transactions in gold among themselves on the basis of it. market value. The obligation that existed until that time of the IMF member countries to make a contribution to the Fund's capital in gold was also abolished. The right of the IMF to demand gold from the participating countries on account of their contributions to the capital of the Fund or in the course of any transactions with these countries was eliminated.
One of the main principles of the Jamaican monetary system was the legally completed demonetization of gold. The official price of gold was abolished, gold parities were abolished, and the exchange of dollars for gold was stopped.
The Jamaican agreement finally abolished the gold parities of national currencies, as well as units of the SDR. Therefore, it was considered in the West as the official demonetization of gold, depriving it of any monetary functions in the sphere of international circulation. The beginning of the actual displacement of the yellow metal from the system of international monetary relations was laid.
The internationalization of the system of international liquid assets, the formation of a collective currency unit are designed to have a stabilizing effect on the world economy, mitigate the consequences of imbalances in the balance of payments, and serve as a kind of barrier to the transfer of disturbances caused by such violations to the domestic economy of the country.
In accordance with this provision of the IMF charter, certain changes have been made to the SDR mechanism:
1. The pegging of the value of the SDR to gold ceases to exist.
2. Member countries are given the opportunity to enter into mutually agreed transactions with each other using SDRs without prior adoption by the Fund of any general or special decision on this issue.
3. The IMF may allow member countries to conduct transactions between themselves using SDRs. In May 1979, the Directorate of the IMF adopted a resolution that gave member countries the right to carry out various transactions, such as repaying any contractual obligation without transferring the currency in which the transaction was made, lending in SDRs, using them as collateral when obtaining loans, etc. P.
4. SDRs replace gold and national currencies in payments made by member countries to the Fund and by the Fund to member countries, and their possible use in transactions carried out within the general department of the IMF should be expanded.
But, the results of the functioning of SDRs indicate that they were far from world money. Moreover, there were problems of emission and distribution, collateral, the method of determining the exchange rate and the scope of use of the SDR. Contrary to the plan, the SDR did not become a standard of value, the main international reserve and means of payment.
The introduction of floating instead of fixed exchange rates in most countries in March 1973 did not ensure their stability, despite the huge costs of foreign exchange intervention. This regime turned out to be unable to ensure the equalization of the balance of payments, to put an end to the sudden movements of “hot money”, to currency speculation.
The Jamaican currency reform did not provide currency stabilization. The lending capacity of the IMF, despite the increase in loans, remained modest compared to the huge international financial flows and the deficit in the balance of payments.
Against the backdrop of numerous problems associated with fluctuations in exchange rates, the experience of functioning of the zone of stable exchange rates in Europe is of particular interest in the world, which allows the countries included in this currency group to develop steadily, despite the problems that arise in the world monetary system.
2.4 European Regional Monetary System
Due to the instability of the Jamaican monetary system, Western European countries - members of the EU - could not afford to pursue an autonomous monetary policy without the risk of jeopardizing trade and, in general, the entire system of economic cooperation within the community. In the early 1970s, they introduced a regime called the "currency snake". In practice, this meant the establishment of strict limits on the mutual fluctuations of the exchange rates of the participating countries in relation to each other and their "joint swimming" in relation to the dollar. Soon they created their own international, or rather regional, monetary system in order to stimulate the process of economic integration.
The plans to create the EMU (European Monetary System) were given a direct impetus by the Jamaican agreements on the reform of the EMU (1976-1978), the basic principles of which did not meet the interests of Western European countries. Namely: the countries of the EEC (European Economic Community) were not satisfied with the functioning of the SDR system and its close relationship with the US dollar, in addition, they were dissatisfied with the introduction of floating rates that adversely affect their foreign trade and the functioning of the already established EEC integration processes.
At the end of the 1970s, the search for ways to create an effective economic and monetary union intensified. As a result of protracted and difficult negotiations on March 13, 1979, the European Monetary System was created as part of 8 countries of the “common market” (Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Italy, Ireland, Denmark).
The goals of the new monetary system were the following:
1. Ensure the achievement of economic integration.
2. Create a European stability zone with its own currency, as opposed to the Jamaican currency system based on the dollar standard.
3. Protect the "common market" from the expansion of the dollar.
The European monetary system is a set of economic relations associated with the functioning of the currency within the framework of economic integration; state-legal form of organization of currency relations of the countries of the "common market" with the aim of stabilizing exchange rates and stimulating integration processes.
EMU is a subsystem of the World Monetary System (Jamaican). Features of the Western European integration complex determine the structural principles of the European Monetary System, which differ from the Jamaican Monetary System:
1. The EMU was based on the ECU - the European currency unit. The notional value of the ECU was determined using the currency "basket" method, which includes the currencies of 12 countries of the European Union. The share of currencies in the ECU basket depended on specific gravity countries in the total GDP of EU member states, their mutual trade and participation in short-term loans support. Therefore, the most significant component of the ECU - approximately 1/3 - was the German brand. In September 1993, in accordance with the Maastricht Treaty, the "absolute" weight of currencies in the ECU was frozen, but the "relative" weight fluctuated depending on the market exchange rate. So, in October 1993, the share of the German mark was 32.6%, the French franc - 19.9%, the pound sterling - 11.5%, the Italian lira - 8.1% and the Danish krone - 2.7%.
The difference between the market and central rates of each currency in ECU is determined daily. The market exchange rate can reach the limit of deviations in relation to the ECU, without going beyond its permissible fluctuations in relation to the national currencies of the EMU member countries. This mechanism is designed to warn countries in advance of an impending violation of bilateral exchange rate ratios.
The decision to create the EBU provided that the ECU would become:
The basis for settlement under the mechanism that determines exchange rates.
A means of carrying out foreign exchange interventions, concluding transactions and providing loans.
A means of settlement between the central banks of the member countries, as well as between the monetary authorities of the EEC.
real reserve asset.
2. Unlike the Jamaican monetary system, which legally fixed the demonetization of gold, the EMU used it as a real reserve asset. First, the emission of the ECU was partly backed by gold. Secondly, for this purpose, a joint gold fund was created by pooling 20% of the official gold reserves of the EMU countries.
3. The exchange rate regime is based on the joint floating of currencies in the form of a "European currency snake" - a curve that describes joint fluctuations in the exchange rates of the countries of the European Community relative to the rates of other currencies that are not included in this currency group - within the established limits of mutual fluctuations (+/- 2.25% of the central rate, for some countries, in particular Italy, +/- 6% until the end of 1989, then Spain, taking into account the instability of their monetary and economic situation. fluctuations are extended up to 15%.
The creation of the EMU is a natural phenomenon. This currency system arose on the basis of Western European integration in order to create its own currency center. However, being a subsystem of the world monetary system, the EMU is experiencing the negative consequences of the instability of the latter and the influence of the US dollar.
Despite this, the EMU successfully occupies an important place in the system of international monetary and financial relations. The most real achievements of the EBU are:
The successful development of the ECU, which has acquired a number of features of the world currency, although it has not yet become it in the full sense;
Relative stabilization of currencies, although their exchange rates are periodically reviewed;
Consolidation of 20% of official gold and dollar reserves;
Development of a credit and financial mechanism to support member countries;
A turning point in the development of Western European integration was the program for the creation of a political, economic and monetary union, developed by the committee of J. Delors in April 1989.
The Delora plan provided for the creation of a common market, the promotion of competition in the EU, the coordination of economic, budgetary, tax policies in order to curb inflation, stabilize prices and economic growth, limit the state budget deficit and improve methods of covering.
On the basis of the Delora plan, by December 1991, the Maastricht Treaty on the European Union was developed, providing for the phased formation of a monetary and economic union.
The advance towards union was planned in three successive phases. The first stage ran from 1 July 1990 to 31 December 1993. In the course of it, an end was put to the financing of the deficits of the state budgets of the member countries by increasing money supply and the obstacles to the movement of capital between the countries of the European Union and third countries have been removed.
The second stage - from January 1, 1994 to December 31, 1998 - the establishment of the EMI (European Monetary Institute), the development of the legal framework and procedures for the future ESCB (European System of Central Banks) headed by the ECB (European Central Bank), preparation for the introduction of a single currency euro, close coordination of the economic policies of the member countries.
The third stage - from January 1, 1999 to June 30, 2002 - the beginning of the functioning of the ECB, the implementation by the members of the union of a common agreed monetary policy, the launch of a single European currency - the euro - first into non-cash, and then into cash circulation.
The use of a single currency in many countries has both advantages and disadvantages for member countries. One of the most important advantages of the euro is the reduction of risks associated with exchange rates, which makes it easier to invest between countries. In addition, with the introduction of a single currency, the fees charged for transferring funds from one currency to another, which were previously charged both from individuals and from commercial organizations. Another notable benefit of adopting the euro is the creation of more stable financial markets. Financial markets on the European continent are expected to become much more liquid and flexible than they have been in the past. Companies also have more freedom to borrow money from banks abroad without exposing themselves to exchange rate risks. It makes national banks reduce interest rates to be competitive. The result of all these measures was the allocation of the EMU into an independent, successfully functioning system that continues its effective existence and development at the moment.
3. Problems and prospects for the functioning of the IAM in modern conditions
At the Gaidar Forum 2013, well-known financiers discussed the future of global currencies - the dollar and the euro. Experts agreed that today there is no alternative to the current reserve currencies, as well as the desire of the world community to build a new global monetary system. The Russian ruble, if it can enter the pool of reserve currencies, then only in the status of a regional one, and not soon.
Vice-President of the Association of Regional Banks of Russia (ARBR) Alexander Khandruev believes that the future of global currencies critically depends on how the problem of global imbalances will be solved: “Now there are no mechanisms that would allow this problem to be solved. Against, government intervention into the economy prevents market corrections and, in fact, causes these global imbalances to persist. In my opinion, any attempt to impose on the world some new architecture of the global monetary system is doomed to failure. Claims for the role of a reserve currency, for example, from Russian ruble, the Chinese yuan or the Brazilian real will remain futile until the market itself, the market participants themselves, claim these currencies as reserve currencies. As world experience shows, all global currencies are, first of all, the choice of the market participants themselves, which is fixed by the relevant agreement.”
The market chooses the global currency.
The competition of currencies, Alexander Khandruev believes, is very useful. “In my opinion, the future of global currencies, whether we like it or not, is, of course, the preservation of the tripolar world - the dollar-euro-yen. I do not rule out that the multipolarization of the world in 10-15 years may lead to the fact that a number of other currencies will take their place in the multipolar currency world. But, in any case, it will be a certain family of reserve currencies, which are preferred by market participants in their calculations,” he believes.
Oleg Vyugin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of MDM Bank, notes that the presence of a global currency is an extremely convenient thing, so the world will strive either to maintain the presence of some kind of global currency, or to create a new or several new currencies: “This is convenient because real business, companies, which today form the basis of the world economy, operate globally. And jump to 200 different currencies These are large transaction costs for global players. I am sure that based on these interests, the majority of the world will hold on to the existing global currency - the dollar - until something very terrible happens, for example, the US authorities prove their inability to manage the economy and the financial system, which seems unlikely.
According to Oleg Vyugin, the viability of regional currencies depends on the fate of the global currency. If the global currency as the principle and basis of the world monetary system survives, then regional currencies will not be of great interest, since global companies will still need to go beyond these regional currencies when making transactions, and global currencies always have the best set of financial instruments.
Will there be "girl"? At the forum, there were proposals to construct a currency on the principle of combining the dollar, euro and yen, creating a new reserve currency - “devai” (according to the first letters of these currencies). “It looks like a dream,” says the head of MDM Bank. But I would think about it. An attempt to fix exchange rates actually means the creation of a single currency for the US, EU and Japan. But in this case, full harmonization of fiscal policies should be achieved. This has not been achieved even within the framework of the European Union. Therefore, “devai” is a rather bold dream. ”
The Chinese leadership today does not seek to make the yuan a convertible currency, let alone an international means of payment. But over time, this position may change.
In reality, according to Oleg Vyugin, events will develop as follows: “The world will strive to the last to preserve the dollar as a global reserve currency. And the euro as the second reserve currency. If, nevertheless, trust in the dollar and the euro gradually fades, if the authorities of many countries begin to think about how to act in this changed situation, then swaps between central banks will become a mechanism that will protect against serious critical events. Such a mechanism, by the way, is already being used - to the extent that there is a need for it. The swap mechanism actually allows to reduce transaction costs for companies that operate in the global field, and maintain the relative stability of currencies, and most importantly, this is the very competitive mechanism that, over time, can reveal a new global reserve currency. An attempt to construct a devai as a supranational currency is probably premature. Just any action must have a very strong motivation. So far, there is no such motivation.
“The problems that have arisen today,” continued the head of MDM Bank, “have appeared not because of the imperfection of the world monetary system, but for purely economic reasons. The developed countries assumed very large social obligations through an increase in government spending and, most importantly, through an increase in state obligations. They were put on the shoulders of future generations, but it is not yet clear why these future generations will be many times more productive than the existing ones. What mechanism will provide substantially higher labor productivity that will pay off these obligations? The answer to this question has not been found, and it has nothing to do with currency systems. Whoever finds the answer to this question first will eventually have a global currency. However, the United States still has the greatest chance of success in this matter.”
Yuan does not want to be global. Already today, quite intensive and serious changes are taking place in the mechanism of the world monetary system, believes Sergey Dubinin, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of VTB. Nevertheless, the world monetary system, in his opinion, will be tied to the two largest assets - the dollar and the euro - for quite a long time. Who could enter there on an equal footing? This is the Chinese yuan. With such a balance of payments that China has, the yuan can really become a convertible currency and a solid international means of payment. The Chinese leadership does not want this, and this is their right. They have an undervalued exchange rate to boost exports. China also maintains a system for regulating the movement of capital, despite membership in the WTO and many other international organizations. “The Chinese leadership is currently not seeking to make the yuan a convertible currency, and even more so - an international means of payment. I think that this will happen over time, and the yuan has yet to go this way,” Sergey Dubinin believes.
Prospects for the ruble.
The ruble also claims to be a reserve currency. “I believe that the announcement of the Bank of Russia on the transition to a floating exchange rate (starting from 2015) and recently adopted budget rule- these are the two fundamental pillars on which the ruble can move towards the status of a reserve currency, - Alexei Moiseev, Deputy Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation, is sure. - What is, in fact, a reserve currency? This is the currency in which savings are kept and in which issuers wish to place their securities. For this to happen, two conditions must be met. The first is the predictability of monetary policy, freedom of exchange rate formation (we achieve this thanks to the Bank of Russia). The second is the absence of currency restrictions. We don't have them. We didn't introduce them even with the huge capital outflow in 2009 and I think it's safe to say that none of the potential and existing investors expect Russia to ever introduce them again. currency control. I believe that these two factors - the floating exchange rate and currency restrictions - just do not allow the yuan to become a serious reserve currency for the time being. These are two necessary conditions, without which no currency has a chance to become a reserve. The ruble has such chances.”
In order for issuers to place their assets in foreign currency, a developed securities market is required. This is another condition for the currency to become a reserve. “Some irony is that only those countries in which the market for government debt securities is developed can be issuers of the reserve currency. The large US public debt, denominated in dollars, is one of the reasons for the indispensability of the dollar as a reserve currency. Now it is simply impossible to invest the reserves of even central banks (not to mention the reserves of the private sector) from the dollar, from US Treasury bills into other government securities - there is no such number of liquid government securities anywhere else, - Alexey Moiseev noted. “This suggests that a local securities market must necessarily develop - one in the currency of which investors want to issue their securities.”
So far, Russia has only one precedent - the issue of securities of the Republic of Belarus in rubles. “If it is possible to build an adequate market structure, then issuers from former countries The USSR and some other neighboring countries will actively issue their securities on the Russian site, - the Deputy Minister of Finance believes. - In order for the ruble to become a reserve currency at the regional level, we have two macroeconomic conditions, it remains to build effective financial markets. When they are built in Russia, we will have a real chance to “build” a fairly serious regional reserve currency.”
Conclusion
In this course work, the international monetary and financial system was investigated. The essence was revealed and the functions of its main elements were shown. Based on the above analysis, it can be concluded that the world monetary system has a long history and has gone through several stages of development. Each of the periods of the existence of the monetary system had its own characteristics that met the requirements of a particular era, but a general development trend can also be noted: the gradual demonetization of gold and the strengthening of the US dollar as the main reserve currency, which contributed to the consolidation of the United States on the world economic arena. The modern MVS has gone through three stages, and a new stage has begun: the transition of the world to a three-currency system, where there are three interchangeable currencies - the dollar, the euro and the national currency. The greatest attention is focused on the euro, and it is the introduction of the euro that is a promising step in the development of the IAM.
A lot of time has passed since the birth of the idea of integrating the monetary systems of the participating countries in the EU, and gigantic work has been done. We have witnessed a stage-by-stage, thoughtful and measured movement of Europe towards the intended goal. The peculiarity of this movement was its complete openness and explanation of each step. In the European press, the media, one could always find a lot of operational and analytical information different levels regarding the integration process. For the successful functioning of the EMU, a number of European institutions have been created with equity participation in them all members of the EU.
Officials do not hide their hope that the new currency will replace the US dollar and take over part of its role. The economic potential of Europe is much greater than that of the US and Japan combined. But until now, the pace of development of European industry has been much lower than in these states. It is expected that the introduction of a single currency will remove this problem. However, one should hardly expect an instant effect from the integration process. The world economy is too big a mechanism that reacts very sensitively to mistakes, but it takes too long to confirm the correctness of certain actions. In general, if there was no sharp collapse of the euro in January 1999, this is unlikely to happen in the future. There are objective reasons for that.
Due to the large-scale costs that will need to be made by business entities around the world at the turn of the millennium (and European ones in particular), many small companies are likely to leave the market, or merge them into larger ones. The current time in the European community is a goldmine for the producers of accounting and transaction software. The massive renewal of the computer equipment park also gives impetus to the development of the relevant industries.
But one cannot ignore the dollar, it still remains a strong currency, and a stable position in the MVS is ensured for it for many years, since many countries are in no hurry to part with the dollar as a reserve currency.
international currency gold coin
List of used sources and literature
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