The dollar exchange rate forecast for 2017 in Belarus, as well as in other countries, depends on many indicators and factors, thereby affecting the economic development of the country and the well-being of the population. At present, the situation in the country relative to this direction is more stable than the rest, but, nevertheless, it causes some excitement, since everyone agrees with the opinion that vital priorities and aspects directly depend on the dollar exchange rate. That is why, currently in the means mass media You can hear quite important, and sometimes completely contradictory opinions. But, nevertheless, first of all, one should pay attention to the most important forecasts, on the basis of which and from which politicians are based in their decisions.
One of the most important and leading opinions, perhaps, is that in the next few years, starting from 2016 and up to 2020, we should expect nothing more than a gradual increase in the value of the Belarusian currency basket. It should be noted that it is this scenario of the development of the situation that is laid down and is the main one in the program of social economic development.
What is this program, and what does it consist of? If you carefully study and consider this program, then you should highlight the following figures and statistics embedded in it and presented in it, relating to the value of the currency basket.
This is what concerns Russian ruble. But, it should be noted that if the stability of the ruble exchange rate remains, then the weakening of the national currency against the dollar will be significantly observed. In other words, the following picture of prices relative to the dollar is assumed.
But, slight fluctuations in the numerical parameters of the exchange rate are possible and likely. Belarusian ruble to the dollar, since everything depends on external factors that play an important and significant role. It is worth noting that, according to the statement of the National Bank of Belarus, throughout this period of time, the authorities will try to adhere to a tight monetary policy, which, if successful, will help to restrain the rate of devaluation of the Belarusian ruble against the currency basket. But we should also not forget about the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against the US dollar, which is also of significant importance.
Today it is well known that the program of the National Bank of Belarus is designed and aimed at solving the next very significant and weighty task. In other words, all actions will be aimed at moving away from the previous regime of targeting the dollar exchange rate and, as a result, gradually moving to the use and application of the mechanism of pegging the Belarusian ruble exchange rate to a basket of currencies.
But, this is not the one that exists today, but, a completely new model, where specific gravity occupies the Russian ruble in the amount of 40%, but the share of the US dollar together with the euro is only 30%.
It is this policy, if successful, that will make it possible in the future to become independent of the US foreign exchange rate.
This is another issue that deserves special attention. Although, it’s worth saying right away that there are actually no reasons for worries, since in this direction there is a relative balance and calmness. But, according to the statements of the National Bank, the exchange rate of Belarusian rubles and the dynamics of their development also directly depends and is determined in accordance with world oil prices, supply and demand in the domestic market, and the exchange rate of the Russian ruble. And, therefore, it is not worth giving any accurate forecasts regarding the "bunnies", because the situation is still developing and moving along the optimal and most favorable path for the development of the country's economy.
The forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2017 in Belarus, if you know it exactly and to the smallest detail, will help many to decide and understand that it is best to give priority in choosing a currency to a more stable currency, therefore it will help Belarusians to make the right choice regarding deposits, thereby avoiding unnecessary hype around this currency.
Given the relative stability of external factors, the dollar in Belarus in 2017 should not cost more than 2 rubles 22 kopecks.
The population this year, which was not observed before, massively sells foreign currency. A significant excess of the supply of foreign currency over the demand for it ensured the stability of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate. And what will happen next? The authorities have prepared two scenarios for the development of events on foreign exchange market, write Naviny.by.
Course at the end of 2017: the authorities have made bets
The Belarusian parliament has already started considering forecast documents for 2017. From the announced budget parameters, it is clear that the authorities do not officially predict a large devaluation of the Belarusian ruble next year. However, options are possible.
When assessing the dollar exchange rate for 2017, the authorities proceeded primarily from external conditions. Internal factors on exchange rate Belarusian ruble in the near future should have, judging by the plans of the authorities, an exceptionally beneficial effect.
According to BelaPAN, National Bank in 2017 plans to maintain the current monetary policy aimed at limiting the money supply. It is assumed that the average wide money supply will grow by 14%. Accordingly, there is no reason to expect that uncontrolled emission will lead to a sharp weakening of the Belarusian ruble.
Also, if the plans of the monetary authorities are implemented, the behavior of the population should have a positive impact on the dynamics of the Belarusian ruble.
According to BelaPAN, In 2017, the authorities expect that the population will maintain a steady excess of the supply of foreign currency over demand, and this, among other things, will contribute to an increase in gold and foreign exchange reserves by half a billion dollars.
At the same time, there are no plans to spend gold and foreign exchange reserves to maintain the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble - the authorities intend to go out with foreign exchange interventions in exceptional cases, to smooth out short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate.
Thus, if the intentions of the monetary authorities are to be believed, there should be no accumulation of devaluation potential as a result of artificially maintaining the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble.
In general, no internal factors for a sharp depreciation of the Belarusian ruble are yet visible.
But external factors, according to experts from government agencies, will have an impact on the foreign exchange market.
According to information BelaPAN, the authorities' estimates indicate that with an average annual world oil price of $35 per barrel, the dollar itself at the end of 2017 could cost 2.21 Belarusian rubles. At the same time, if a more favorable scenario is realized and a barrel of black gold on the world market will give $45 next year, then the dollar exchange rate may reach 2.12 rubles by the end of 2017. Recall that today the dollar costs 1.96 rubles in Belarus.
The population does not threaten the ruble
Deputy Finance Minister Yuri Seliverstov told the House of Representatives this week that next year's budget has been prepared taking into account an average annual oil price of $35 per barrel. Taking this conservative scenario, which is close to a pessimistic one, as a basis, the authorities decided in order not to have to sequester the budget in 2017, as in 2016.
Meanwhile, this week the price of a barrel of oil on the world market exceeded $45 and even approached $50. The rise in world oil prices that occurred in August has already led to the fact that Russia, the main trading partner of Belarus, began to think about revising forecast prices for oil upwards.
Thus, Russian Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukaev said this week that the ministry, along with the base scenario ($40 per barrel), sees another scenario (the “base plus”) of developments in 2017 as realistic, which assumes an increase in oil prices to $50. dollars per barrel.
« If oil on the world market next year rises in price, as some foreign experts expect today, to $50-60 per barrel, then against this background the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble may strengthen”, Valery Polkhovsky, Senior Analyst at Forex Club Forex Broker, believes.
It is known that the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble today is highly dependent on the exchange rate Russian currency. According to the estimates of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, with a world oil price of $40 per barrel, the US currency in 2017 will cost 65 Russian rubles, and with an average annual oil price of $50 per barrel, it will cost 61 rubles.
« If the exchange rate in Russia is about 60 Russian rubles to the dollar, the US currency in Belarus could be even cheaper than it is now. In this case, the official dollar exchange rate may fall to the level of 1 ruble 85 kopecks.", - suggested in an interview with a correspondent BelaPAN Valery Polkhovsky.
Belarusian analysts financial market We are confident that the National Bank will not influence the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, which will be formed under the influence of external factors.
« Until 2014, attempts were made in Belarus to fix the dollar exchange rate at a certain level, which led to the inevitable devaluation of the national currency. Since the beginning of 2015, no one has been targeting the dollar in Belarus, so its dynamics is a reflection of those exchange rates that naturally develop in the market”, Vadim Iosub, senior analyst at the Alpari forex broker, states.
In his opinion, given the relative stability of external factors, the dollar in Belarus in 2017 should not cost more than the above-mentioned 2 rubles 22 kopecks.
« Our presidential and parliamentary elections are over, so for the sake of solving populist tasks, no one will definitely increase the incomes of the population. Accordingly, there are no grounds to expect that the country will form an increased demand of the population for foreign currency, which will have a negative impact on the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble,” believes Vadim Iosub.
He recalled that this year the population is massively selling foreign exchange reserves, and since the growth of real disposable income of the population for 2017 is planned to be only 1.2%, it can be expected that Belarusians will continue to sell foreign currency in 2017 to maintain their standard of living. .
“If the plans of the National Bank to limit the money supply are implemented, if wages grow at a slow pace, it is very likely that the devaluation, if any, will turn out to be moderate. This forecast of the authorities looks plausible.”, — summed up Vadim Iosub.
Against the backdrop of the outgoing year, we asked economists to tell us how they see the country's economy next year. Will wages rise? What will happen to the dollar? And how will our lives change?
So, while the preliminary results of the year look like this. On January 1 this year, the dollar at the rate of the National Bank was worth 18,569 non-denominated rubles. official rate today - 1.9577 denominated rubles (up 5.4%). According to Belstat, inflation at the end of last year was 12%, now it is at the level of 10.1%. average salary in October last year was 6.837 million non-denominated rubles. In October, the average accrued earnings in the country amounted to 722.9 rubles.
According to Vadim Iosub, a senior analyst at Alpari, the situation in the country's economy next year will be quite difficult.
- The economy of Belarus will remain in recession. The fall in GDP will be about 1%, this will be the third year of reduction. The protracted crisis is due to the fact that it is not cyclical or opportunistic, but structural. Economic problems are associated with low labor productivity and low efficiency of large state-owned enterprises.
Recent years have shown that most large state-owned enterprises (with the possible exception of refineries and Belaruskali) can only operate in the absence of budgetary restrictions: permanent subsidies, subsidies, concessional loans at negative real rates, debt cancellation, their conversion into an increase in the state's share . However, such a policy of soft budget constraints has led to the fact that for the past two decades Belarus has been a leader in the CIS and Eastern Europe inflation and devaluation.
high rates economic growth depreciated by its low quality, regular currency crises, growth of external debt. At the same time, a sharp easing of monetary policy is unlikely, since the country's leadership does not want a return to hyperinflation and the collapse of the Belarusian ruble. The way out can be found in deep and unpopular structural reforms.
- Belarus has the most undiversified foreign trade, both in terms of geography (almost half falls on the Russian market) and in terms of commodity nomenclature (half is represented by refined products and potash fertilizers). In such a situation, any deterioration in the market Russian economy or prices for fertilizers and oil products hurt the country's economy,- explains Vadim Iosub.
As for the forecast for a slowdown in inflation from 12% to 9% this year, it is possible only if the current monetary policy is maintained. In this case, the growth in the value of the currency basket may be proportional to inflation, that is, the same 9%.
The dynamics of individual currencies against the Belarusian ruble will largely depend on external Belarusian economy EUR/USD and USD/RUB cross rates. Based on the assumptions that by the end of 2017 the euro will reach parity with the dollar and the dollar in Russia will cost 67 Russian rubles, the value of currencies in Belarus at the end of the year may be 2.25 rubles per US dollar and euro, 3.37 rubles for 100 Russian rubles, with the growth of the three-currency basket by 9%.
Economist Anton Boltochko believes that if economic policy next year will remain the same, we can expect a further fall in gross domestic product.
- In other words, the recession in the country will continue, - he notes . - At the same time, I would not pay much attention to whether it will be minus 1% or minus 2.5% of GDP. After all, a few percent of GDP does not radically change the lives of ordinary citizens. Even if we assume that a miracle happens and the economy grows by 1%, as the official authorities predict today, this will not greatly increase our advantages in the race with others. developing countries, which annually add many times more.
Why GDP won't grow? First, for two previous years investments in fixed capital - the key to future economic growth - "dipped" by a significant amount (in 2016, it was almost 20%). The state does not have enough funds to implement large-scale projects, and business is still behaving cautiously against the backdrop of macroeconomic problems in the country.
Secondly, the incomes of the population are declining and it will not be possible to support the economy through consumption. Promised wage at $500, in my opinion, is hardly possible. Therefore, the domestic market will continue to shrink, and this will negatively affect the dynamics of GDP. As a result, we get situations when once again it is worth recognizing that Belarus is at the stage of economic stagnation.
- In 2016, almost nothing has changed. And in December 2015, on the pages of Onliner.by, I also called the current situation in the country's economy stagnation. However, today is different from yesterday. Increased risks. Main Risk next year - these are difficulties in the banking system,- explains Anton. -Increasing problem assets in banks can lead to serious consequences. That is why the National Bank next year will have to play one of the main roles in the domestic economy.
However, he should not be the only violin in the orchestra. The government should continue to work on improving the real sector (primarily the state sector) in order to prevent an increase in problem assets in the system.
On the demand side for the currency, on the contrary, growth is expected. After all, this year individual state-owned enterprises continued to receive credit support and purchase imported raw materials and intermediate goods. Therefore, the ruble exchange rate in 2017 may well lose a tenth of the current price.
And another risk that is on the surface is the growth of Belarus' external debt. A couple of years ago it was said that we had passed the peak of payments for external debt However, each year our budget provides for record amounts to repay creditors. In 2017, once again, we need to return several billion dollars, which could well remain in the country and work for the good of the motherland.
Therefore, 2017 is a year of difficult economic decisions for the leadership of the country. The question is what will be the solutions.
The dollar exchange rate in Belarus in 2017, as in other countries, is influenced by a lot of specific factors. The country's economy and the prosperous life of citizens largely depend on this currency. Today the situation can be called relatively stable when compared with other areas. Nevertheless, people continue to worry about this and speculate about what the coming day will bring us, because it is on this that the prioritization in many areas depends.
The media is full of conflicting opinions, from which it is sometimes possible to catch really useful information trustworthy. Attention should be paid to the most important forecasts on which politicians decide to base their point of view.
The most common forecasts are now about the growth of the dollar in Belarus in 2017. And this trend will not lose its strength until 2020. A similar scenario is contained in the program for the development of the socio-economic aspects of the state. It is on him that the greatest emphasis is placed.
It is worth understanding in more detail this program itself, considering its components. It contains figures and static data regarding the monetary policy on which the currency basket will be formed:
This applies to the Russian ruble. It should be noted that while maintaining the stability of the exchange rate, the national currency against the dollar will be significantly weakened. That is, the prices per dollar will look like this:
Significant fluctuations of the national currency against the dollar are not ruled out. Outside influences play a big role. The National Bank stated that the authorities will make efforts to ensure that the credit monetary policy remained tough. If success is achieved, the devaluation will be contained. At the same time, it is important to keep in mind the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate in Belarus in 2017.
Today it is known that the National Bank aims to get rid of a rather important and significant problem. This implies a departure from the previous methods of currency targeting. This will help to gradually link the Belarusian ruble to the national currency basket.
This is not about the model of work that is used today, but about a completely new concept, where the share of the Russian ruble will be 40%, while US dollars and euros are given 30%. Only in this way will it be possible to ensure the independence of the country from the dollar.
This issue deserves special attention. There are no particular reasons for concern. There is a relative balance and an atmosphere of calm in this area. The National Bank claims that the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble is directly dependent on the global pricing of petroleum products, supply and demand on the domestic market, and the exchange rate of the Russian currency. That is, to give the maximum accurate forecasts in a constantly changing environment is not so easy.
In addition, the dollar exchange rate in 2017 may have some impact. After the denomination, a lot has changed in Belarus. We can say that the "bunnies" justified themselves and the country followed the most optimal possible scenario for economic development.
Forecast figures for the US currency help people to conclude that it is better to give priority to more stable and stable monetary units. This significantly increases the attractiveness of the Belarusian ruble. It can be used by a larger number of contributors, avoiding excitement and hype.
To get a more complete picture of the economy in the state, it will be useful to read the article about on the website.
At the very beginning, it should be recalled that a denomination is planned for June 1 this year in Belarus, after which the ratio of the national currency to the dollar will no longer be measured in thousands, but it will turn out to be unambiguous. As a result, the designation of the Belarusian ruble should also change - from BYR to BYN. Against the background of such radical changes, I would like to hear the opinions of analysts on the dollar exchange rate in 2017 in Belarus.
In order to at least roughly understand how the national currency of Belarus will behave in 2017 in relation to the dollar, both sides need to make a forecast for the near future.
According to Georgy Grits, who occupies a significant position in the scientific and industrial association of Belarus, 
today to make such global assumptions as guessing on coffee grounds. While the dollar exchange rate national currency very strongly tied to political and economic factors. To date, the largest share Belarusian currency depends on the Russian ruble, which, in turn, “cannot live in peace” without a normal price for energy resources. Earlier, the state authorities decided that the dollar to the Belarusian ruble would be equal to 18.6 thousand, but after that there was talk about the upcoming denomination. Most likely, before the end of the year, the set rate for the year will have to be changed to fit the new parameters.
Independent analyst Vladimir Artyugin noted that at the moment only two factors influence the exchange rate in Belarus: the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the main currency, as well as the currency board rule. With the passage of time, only the proportion of these factors relative to course determination can change. True, the first factor, due to the stable level of gold reserves and tough monetary policy reduced to a minimum. Moreover, the state has already decided to fulfill a number of IMF conditions for obtaining a loan. Since next year there are no global changes in local currency it is not to be expected, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar will depend only on external factors: energy prices. If oil prices continue to fall, then the exchange rate will have a ratio of 2.1 to 1. Most likely, at the beginning of 2017, this forecast will be equal to 2:1. 
BEROC expert Katerina Bornukova believes that even now the Belarusian currency is completely dependent on oil prices. For now, one should not be too hopeful that the cost of the energy resource will rise above $40 per barrel. Also, the National Bank of the state will continue to implement a stable monetary policy, thanks to which inflation in the state can drop to 10%. Do not forget that the gold and foreign exchange reserves that exist so far are not unlimited and the situation with 2011 may repeat in any case, but so far there is credit support external "helpers" such an end is unlikely.
According to Minsk-based analyst Vadim Iosub, inflation in 2017 will easily be kept "in check" within the planned 12%. As a result, the dollar will rise in price to the level of the euro, and then both world currencies will become equal. 
According to another analyst Alexander Mukha, in the future all negative factors in the state will only get stronger, therefore, in relation to foreign currency the Belarusian ruble will continue its devaluation. It is worth recalling that at the beginning of 2016, the share of foreign currency deposits in banks reached 79%. As a result, the share of deposits in local currency reached its critical minimum. At the beginning of 2017, the situation will only worsen, and perhaps at this time the share currency deposits will equal 85%. As a result, the flow local ruble in the currency will slow down and only then will the first parcels for the long-awaited strengthening appear. Also, it is in 2017 that the opportunities for individual in the acquisition of currency, which will undoubtedly depend on the unemployment or part-time employment of Belarusian employees. In conclusion, it should be noted that even at the end of this year, the government should do its best to reduce inflationary processes in the economy, for which it is possible to use the monetary targeting regime.
As a result, according to the preliminary forecast, in early 2017 the exchange rate against the Belarusian ruble will be 1:2.33. This will help slightly increase the competitiveness of each Belarusian exporter in the foreign market.
director of one of investment companies Sergey Mukhanov says that if exporters and importers continue to adhere to the inflation targeting course, the situation in the country will only deteriorate rapidly. Even if Belarusian goods sell poorly throughout Europe, Russian buyers always remain in the end. Historically, the exchange rate of the Belarusian currency against the dollar is at the level of 280-290 rubles, but taking into account the future denomination and the situation in the cost of oil, by the beginning of 2017, the price of oil will reach 2.28 rubles per dollar.
According to the director of the Strategy Center Yaroslav Romanchuk, even a denomination will not help the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, so even after the last procedure, the dollar rate in the country will continue to rise. This will be influenced by a number of different reasons, among which it is worth noting the ongoing crisis in the Belarusian industry, which will affect the reduction in foreign exchange earnings. As a result, at the beginning of 2017, the cost of one dollar, at best, will cost 3.2 Belarusian rubles. 
Against the background of the information received, one can logically come to the conclusion that a lot of various factors can influence the exchange rate in Belarus. One of them will be the impossibility of promoting local goods on Russian market, another is the price of oil, and then the crisis of production and the stagnation of many industries.
