S. ANDRYUSHIN
Doctor of Economic Sciences
head of department of IE RAS
Professor of Moscow State University named after M. V. Lomonosov
V. BURLACHKOV
Doctor of Economic Sciences
Chief Researcher, IE RAS
Professor of the Academy of Labor and Social Relations
In the last two decades, the development and implementation of monetary policy (MP) in developed countries is largely determined by the processes of integration within the financial market. The widespread use of derivative financial instruments simultaneously circulating in two or more segments of the financial market led to the reform of market regulation institutions and the creation in a number of countries (Australia, Great Britain, Sweden, Japan) of mega-regulators, functioning in parallel with central banks. Simultaneously in banking intensive securitization of assets took place. A paradoxical situation arose: new loans were secured by securities issued under previously issued loans, which created the risk of collateral depreciation. If the borrower refuses to increase the collateral commercial Bank could resort to selling valuable papers thereby increasing their offer in the market.
With the onset of the global financial crisis, in the face of a lack of liquidity, sales of collateral intensified the decline in the stock market. Banks preferred to refrain from interbank lending and actually hoarded money. The mechanism of money multiplication has stopped. At the same time, it turned out that the central banks of developed countries do not have sufficient and effective tools within the monetary policy framework to deal with the crisis. The monetary authorities were forced to improvise, trying to find adequate instruments to pump liquidity into the economy. From lenders of last resort, central banks have effectively become financial sector sponsors. This trend has not bypassed the Russian financial market either.
The global financial crisis not only led to a reassessment of the functions of the central bank, but also predetermined changes in the instruments, objectives, methods and mechanism of monetary policy. In the current conditions, it became necessary to revise the methodology for its development and implementation.
In the pre-crisis period, the idea was formed that the securitization of assets and the use of financial derivatives provide risk diversification and thus represent an element of self-regulation market system. As another element of it, the multiplication of money as a result of credit operations was considered. But subsequent events showed that both mechanisms of self-regulation of the economy do not work in conditions of a full-scale crisis. Moreover, risk hedging using a wide range of derivatives has created systemic risk affecting the entire financial system.
The global financial crisis that began in August 2007 was triggered by excess liquidity in the US economy. This liquidity entered the stock market and the real estate market as a result of the policy of stimulating aggregate demand. The Fed leadership justified its actions by the need for preventive measures that could reduce the perceived risks of the financial sector. As a result, the attraction of borrowed resources increased rapidly, and hence the use of financial leverage. The high degree of leverage in the financial sector, in our opinion, was not fully taken into account when developing monetary policy in developed countries.
The beginning of the financial turmoil was an unexpected and complete halt in operations in several segments of the financial sector, in particular, the market for commercial paper secured by bank assets (asset-backed commercial papers - АВСР), securities with an auction rate (auction-rate securities - ARS), secured bonds residential mortgage(residential mortgage-backed securities - RMBS), collateralized debt obligations (CDO). This led to a loss of liquidity in the interbank lending market. Later, serious difficulties arose in the market for credit default swaps (credit default swaps - CDS). As a result, the total losses from the fall of all stock markets in the world for the year (August 2007 - August 2008) amounted, according to expert estimates, to about $16 trillion.
Under such conditions, the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, the central banks of Switzerland and Japan actually supported not only the banking sector, but also the stock market, turning from lenders of last resort into market makers of last resort. Thus, the leading central banks assumed responsibility for lending to the economy, for the actions of speculators in the stock market and inflating speculative bubbles. On October 13, 2008, the US Federal Reserve, the ECB, the central banks of England, Switzerland and Japan announced that until the beginning of 2009, unlimited (of course, within reasonable limits) dollar liquidity to the global financial system from the Fed (according to preliminary estimates, we are talking about at least than 600-700 billion euros) (1). The measures taken are of an emergency nature. During their implementation, it turned out that there are no necessary instruments for providing liquidity to the banking sector. They had to be created in a hurry.
Thus, in December 2007, the Fed announced the launch of TAF liquidity auctions, and on October 16, 2008, the ECB announced the holding of LTROs/SLTRO auctions, where banks can receive loans for a period of one to six months. This tool complemented the traditional "discount window" through which banks receive loans for terms ranging from "overnight" to one month. The introduction of TAP and LTROs/SLTRO was intended to provide loans against a list of collaterals, the list of which was expanded to include assets rated from A- to BBB-.
Since March 2008, the FRS began to implement a program to provide primary dealers with US Treasury bonds secured by less liquid securities. This program is called Term Securities Lending Facility - TSLF. Within its framework, the Fed accepts mortgage bonds of various tranches as collateral. In the current situation on the market, their ratings turned out to be conditional. In fact, the Fed has assumed the risk of valuation of these securities (valuation risk). The Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) was also established in March 2008 to provide resources to primary dealers against a wide range of debt securities, including corporate and municipal bonds.
While the TSLF enabled the Fed to provide primary dealers with US Treasury bills as collateral, the PDCF created conditions for direct lending to primary dealers against a wide range of bonds accepted by the Fed as collateral. Obviously, such activity of the monetary authorities exacerbates such well-known consequences of the asymmetry of information in the credit market as false choice and moral hazard.
The ECB also undertook large-scale operations from the very beginning of the crisis to increase the liquidity of the banking sector, establishing a wide range of securities that it accepts as collateral for loans. commercial banks. It included not only asset-backed bonds, including mortgages, but also shares of some corporations. All of them must be denominated in euros. The right to use the "discount window" of the ECB received about 8 thousand banks. The ECB took over the assessment of the collateral in the absence of its market price.
Unlike the FRS and the ECB, at the beginning of the financial crisis, the Bank of England did not carry out extraordinary operations to increase liquidity, but limited itself to supporting the interest rate in the interbank market. But in September 2007, he began to actively conduct repo transactions, accepting a wide range of bonds, including mortgage ones, as collateral. In April 2008, it was announced that the Bank of England would provide commercial banks with British treasury bills secured by bonds, including mortgages. This form of lending is called the Special Liquidity Scheme (SLS). On October 8, 2008, the UK government announced a three-year plan to help the country's financial market. Estimated at 500 billion pounds. Art., it involves the provision of additional liquidity to the banking (50 billion), stock (200 billion) and interbank (250 billion) markets secured by short- and medium-term debt obligations major players financial market (primarily commercial and mortgage banks in the United Kingdom) (2).
The situation in the global derivatives market is also not easy. Its real volumes ($14.5 trillion at the end of 2007), primarily due to the "repackaging" of financial instruments, contributed to the formation of systemic risk and macroeconomic instability during the crisis. This market is still not regulated by anyone in the world. At the same time, the cost indicators of the execution of transactions on derivatives should not be confused with the nominal volume of all mutual obligations existing in this market, which amounted to 692 trillion dollars as of July 1, 2008 (3)
Thus, central banks, firstly, have created additional instruments for providing liquidity to the financial sector; secondly, they began to accept mortgage bonds as collateral in the absence of their real market value. By accepting as collateral the bonds of collapsed, disappeared markets, central banks took on the risks of valuing these securities, effectively subsidizing the financial sector. Such activity is fraught with the threat of an inflationary explosion in the global economy and significantly increases the instability of the world economy. financial system.
The situation that has developed in the sphere of world finance is largely determined by the peculiarities of the monetary policy of the leading countries. Thus, one of the most acute problems of the monetary policy theory is the reaction of the monetary authorities to price increases. financial assets. A steady increase in stock (and OTC) quotes leads to the formation of a speculative bubble in the stock market or in the real estate market. Its collapse may have poorly predictable macroeconomic consequences, in particular, lead to a chain of bankruptcies of financial institutions.
Between 1997 and 2008 world economy experienced several speculative bubbles in the financial markets. But so far, practical methods for their prevention or localization have not been developed. Moreover, the question of a possible strategy of the monetary authorities to prevent the emergence of such bubbles has not been resolved even at a theoretical level. There are two approaches to this problem in the economic literature.
According to the first approach, the monetary authorities should not target the prices of financial assets and use the interest rate to reduce activity in the stock market. In particular, B. Bernanke and M. Gertler note that "within the framework of inflation targeting, an answer can be given to how central banks should react to the price dynamics of financial assets; changes in the prices of these assets should affect monetary policy only to the extent in which they influence the central bank's inflation forecast" (4). A similar opinion is shared by W. Buiter, who believes that the prevention of speculative activity should be ensured not by monetary policy measures, but by regulation of the stock market (5). This position is disputed by supporters of the second approach. Thus, N. Roubini considers the main arguments of the opponents of price targeting of financial assets untenable. He notes that one cannot argue against countering speculative bubbles by the fact that there is significant uncertainty associated with their occurrence (6). According to this logic, monetary authorities can use monetary policy tools to reduce activity in the stock market.
In economic analysis, it is traditionally assumed that the price dynamics of financial assets is determined by the rational expectations of business entities regarding the net present value of future income from financial assets. Accordingly, the emergence of speculative bubbles is caused by incorrect assessments of their risks by investors, insufficient consideration of fundamental market conditions. Obviously, this approach does not take into account the psychology of market players, their belief in the ability to exit the game before others, fixing profits. Therefore, speculative bubbles are not the result of erroneous risk assessments, but an inevitable attribute of the exchange game, the mechanism of which is discussed in detail in the book by the founder of the hedge fund Traxis Partners ( former top manager Morgan Stanley) Barton Biggs (7).
At the same time, in practice, it may be difficult to identify upward trends in the stock market. They are not only speculative, but also reflect fundamental factors in the dynamics of the value of corporations, including the consequences of technological shifts. At the same time, the price dynamics of financial assets may be under pressure from excess liquidity in the global economy. Then the rise in asset prices will take place for the same reasons as the increase consumer prices. In this regard, C. Goodhart proposed to calculate the inflation index taking into account stock quotes (8).
Countering speculative bubbles is, of course, of great importance for ensuring macroeconomic stability. However, the use of the interest rate for this purpose would mean a separation of its dynamics from profitability in the real sector of the economy. A decrease in the money supply would also have negative consequences for him in the event of speculative trends in the stock market. Therefore, the main measures to counteract speculative bubbles should, in our opinion, be carried out by stock market regulators.
At the same time, the negative consequences of speculative bubbles in the stock market for the banking sector are obvious. The depreciation of securities accepted as collateral provokes its crisis. The sale of collateral in the event of default by the borrower increases supply on the stock market. In the situation under consideration, the risks of a systemic crisis are extremely high. That is why this problem requires a strategic solution. It is important to clearly distinguish between the banking sector and the stock market. Banks should set reserve requirements for shares and bonds accepted as collateral. It is necessary to introduce a ban on commercial banks accepting structured financial instruments as collateral, as well as instruments issued during the securitization of assets.
The financial crisis forced attention to an important feature of market processes - their non-linearity, the absence of constants and similarity laws in the time series of economic indicators. As studies of the financial market have shown, the statistical distribution of the return on financial assets is not Gaussian (normal), but is a Pareto-Leavy distribution with infinite variance. This means that there is a high probability of significant and unpredictable fluctuations in market variables that could undermine financial stability.
This circumstance predetermines the need to interpret macroeconomic equilibrium not simply as an interdependence of sectors and markets, but as a balance economic processes. From this point of view, disequilibrium is generated by different dynamics of specific elements of the system. Therefore, the state can be considered balanced economic system, at which a certain ratio of its elements is provided, which counteracts the occurrence of turbulence. In this understanding, a manifestation of disequilibrium, in particular, is the multidirectional dynamics of the value of money in the domestic and foreign economies, that is, a combination of inflation with an increase in the exchange rate. Then the domestic interest rate rises, and it becomes more profitable for corporations to borrow abroad. For example, in Russia (as of July 1, 2008) this led to a sharp increase in external corporate debt - up to 454.8 billion dollars (including the banking sector - up to 191.3 billion dollars) (9). In addition, this manifestation of disequilibrium disrupts the process of transforming income into savings, and the latter into investments.
In recent years, monetary credit policy The Bank of Russia as a whole was characterized by a lack of consistency and clarity of methodological approaches. This was reflected in the vague definition of the main objectives of the interest rate policy, the lack of development of a methodology for assessing the demand for money and conceptual approaches to the formation of the money supply, inefficient management of gold and foreign exchange reserves, and the absence of systemic measures to form Russian territory international financial center, insufficient coordination of monetary policy with the state of the financial market and the banking sector. In particular, when developing the main directions of monetary policy, the Bank of Russia does not determine its objects and features of the transmission mechanism.
It is important to bear in mind that the response of concrete objects of the monetary policy to the actions of the monetary authorities is not the same with a different combination of macroeconomic factors, with the changing dynamics of external economic conditions. Therefore, the choice of a particular object of monetary policy as a priority should be based on an analysis of the entire range of macroeconomic conditions. In world practice, the objectives of monetary policy traditionally include ensuring the main indicators of macroeconomic stability - economic growth, employment, price stability, high financial market conditions. In this regard, it is necessary to distinguish the goals of the MP from the targets for its implementation. The latter include: monetary aggregates; the size of interest rate fluctuations; inflation rates; level of exchange rate support.
For the effective functioning of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the Russian economy, it is necessary to identify its channels, which should be based on an econometric analysis of a wide range of indicators. For example, the use of an interest rate depending on the characteristics of the economy of a particular country can affect different economic indicators. Its growth can lead to an increase in inventories due to higher prices consumer credit. Obviously, such a situation is real for an economy with a developed credit system. But a change in the interest rate may also affect the volume of lending to the real sector and, in addition, cause a decrease in the money multiplier with a corresponding change in the dynamics of monetary aggregates. Therefore, the definition of specific channels of the transmission mechanism should be based on the study of the features Russian economy.
By 2011, the Bank of Russia intends to basically complete the transition to the inflation targeting regime, which assumes the priority of the goal of reducing it. Inflation targeting is usually understood as a type of monetary policy, in which the central bank publicly announces a quantitative indicator of acceptable inflation and undertakes to ensure that prices rise within a specified range. The main mechanism for achieving this goal is to influence the inflation expectations of business entities. But at the same time, a short-term interest rate is used as an instrument of monetary policy.
Thus, the desire of the central bank to exert a psychological impact on economic entities and encourage them to calculate investment projects, taking into account the subsequent reduction in inflation, is based on the regulation of the "price" of money. In other words, inflation targeting is not based on objective interdependencies between macro economic indicators. Its basis is the stability of interrelated and balanced processes that have developed in the economic system in the previous period. Accordingly, the possibility of their change is not taken into account by the central banks that have announced the transition to inflation targeting.
It should be noted that countries using inflation targeting (Austria, Great Britain, Canada, Sweden) achieved in the 1990s the same results in reducing price growth that were achieved by countries that did not rely on this option of monetary policy (USA, eurozone countries, Japan). ). Inflation targeting is not applied in any of the countries with non-diversified exports. This is most likely due to the low degree of predictability of the macroeconomic situation in them, as well as significant fluctuations in the world commodity markets.
The planned transition of the Bank of Russia to inflation targeting may significantly increase the risks macroeconomic instability. Under this version of the monetary policy, a freely floating exchange rate regime is used to mitigate the impact of external shocks on it. But the refusal to support the exchange rate in a certain range will lead to significant fluctuations of the ruble against other currencies and will provoke sharp inflows and outflows of speculative foreign capital. Under these conditions, the ruble exchange rate will have an additional impact. Thus, the task set by the Bank of Russia to complete the transition in 2009-2011. to the inflation targeting regime cannot be considered necessary and justified.
The Bank of Russia has also declared the task of turning the interest rate into the main instrument of monetary policy. It is expected to ensure a gradual narrowing of the range of interest rates on the CBR's own operations and a reduction in the volatility of money market rates. However, the Bank of Russia did not formulate the objectives of structuring the interest rate policy based on the regulation of short-, medium- and long-term interest rates.
We believe that the activation of the interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia, the strengthening of the impact of its credit policy on the real economy, as well as on the formation of the money supply, should consist in ensuring the structuring of interest rates, in the implementation of measures to regulate them. The Bank of Russia should make extensive use of the world's experience in conducting interest rate policy, in particular, the system of regulation of multi-temporal interest rates for: refinancing operations (main refinancing operations); long-term refinancing operations; fine-tuning operations; operations associated with structural transformations (structural operations); operations concessional lending(marginal lending facility).
A prerequisite for ensuring a balance between the demand and supply of money is the existence of a reasonable methodology for assessing the demand for them. In the early 1990s, when assessing it in the Russian economy, a systemic error was made, which consisted in the fact that the demand for money was determined on the basis of GDP dynamics. Accordingly, when this indicator fell, a policy of tightening the money supply was implemented, which led to an increase in the interest rate and a huge budget deficit as a result of the inability of enterprises to pay taxes in cash during the total barterization of the economy. But it should be taken into account that it was during this period that the volume of intermediary operations increased, the stock market developed, as well as the land and real estate markets. Under such conditions, the fall in GDP was accompanied by an increase in the volume of transactions in the economy. Therefore, the demand for money did not fall, but, on the contrary, increased.
Assessment of the current demand for money in terms of turnover payment system, adequate to the volume of transactions in the economy, is able, in our opinion, to correctly reflect the needs of economic entities in money. Over the past eight years, the growth rate of payment turnover in Russia has outpaced the growth rate of real GDP by almost seven times. The use of a rational methodology for assessing the demand for money based on the indicator of the dynamics of the volume of transactions (payment turnover) will make it possible to conduct an effective and reasonable monetary policy and avoid the mistakes of the 1990s, which had catastrophic consequences for the Russian economy.
The accumulation of significant international reserves by the Bank of Russia and the prospects for their subsequent growth in the event of a strong global energy market make it possible to form an international financial center in Russia as a tool to increase the efficiency of investing these reserves through Russian financial institutions, bypassing foreign intermediaries (10). In this regard, the following measures should be implemented: the development of large bank holding companies (with the active participation of the state) and the restructuring of most commercial banks into other forms of activity, including credit cooperation institutions; formation of a large stock exchange with a single depository; development of the national market for gold (platinum and diamonds) with quotations in rubles; adoption of transparent legislation in the field of regulation of the financial market (stock, banking, insurance and pension savings); introduction of lending practices foreign countries, including members of the CIS and countries of Eastern Europe, in rubles; stimulating the transition of state-owned companies to settlements in rubles for export deliveries.
Effective management of international reserves should ensure both their safety and high profitability. In this case, first of all, it is necessary to minimize investment risks. The investment in 2007 of a significant amount of the Bank of Russia’s reserves in bonds of companies with non-diversified businesses – the American mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were actually nationalized later during the crisis – predetermined the high risk of such investments and created a situation of uncertainty regarding the safety of invested funds.
In September-October 2008, amid the instability of the interbank lending market, the Bank of Russia took a number of measures to create new instruments to increase liquidity in the economy. But it would be a big mistake to allow investment and management companies to join the central bank's refinancing system. This would lead to the uncontrollability of the process of liquidity formation and would create the risk of on-lending to the financial sector.
Monetary policy can be defined as the activity of an authorized state structure to ensure the implementation of the functions of money. This approach makes it possible to link the functions of money with the objects of monetary policy.
The functions of money are not abstract concepts, as is commonly assumed, but can have a statistical interpretation. Thus, in the function of a measure of value, money interacts with price dynamics. Excess money supply over the commodity leads to inflation, and the opposite situation - to deflation. Accordingly, inflation and deflation are two consequences of the process of mutual coordination of money and commodity masses.
For the purposes of our analysis, we combine the functions of money as a means of circulation and a means of payment, since these functions are closely interrelated. The first ensures the sale of goods and services on the market, the second - the receipt and repayment of loans. As a result of credit transactions, monetary aggregates are formed that are used to support the purchase and sale of goods and services. Under the foreign economic function of money, we understand their ability to ensure the conduct of international economic transactions.
The essence of comparing the functions of money and objects of monetary policy, in our opinion, is the ability to identify the inconsistency of both the first and second. In particular, the impact of the monetary policy on the stability of money as a measure of value by raising the interest rate actually means that depreciating assets become more expensive. Money. However, an increase in the interest rate may indeed lead to an increase in bank deposits of households and thereby reduce demand pressure on the consumer market. In this regard, an important problem of inflation targeting should be noted: manipulating the short-term interest rate to stabilize money as a measure of value disrupts the mechanism for accumulating money and turning it into capital.
A certain paradox lies in the fact that the dynamics of the value ("price") of money in relation to goods is determined by inflation, and the "price" of money in relation to money capital is the interest rate.
The choice of the exchange rate as an indicator of monetary policy leads to a multidirectional cost of money (currency) in the domestic and foreign economies. The increase in this imbalance threatens macroeconomic stability.
Violation of the correspondence between economic indicators occurs under the influence of certain information. It affects the intensity of the processes that form economic variables. Consequently, information processes affect the behavior of economic entities. Therefore, the potential difference behind each of the indicators can become critical and lead to turbulence.
The main monetary indicators corresponding to the objects of monetary policy are interconnected non-linearly. This means that it is impossible to influence all indicators with a sufficient degree of predictability by affecting only one of them. In the general case, the choice of one of the indicators for conducting monetary policy naturally leads to fragmentation of the policy as a whole.
Ensuring the integrality (integrity) of the DCT involves making significant changes to the methodology for its development and implementation. It is advisable to move from the formation of the monetary policy according to the scheme "goals - quantitative guidelines - channels of the transmission mechanism - methods - tools" to the scheme "object - goal - indicator - channels of the transmission mechanism - tools". Moreover, indicators directly related to the functions of money should be chosen as objects of monetary policy. This approach makes it possible to take into account the relationship between the objects of the DCT during its implementation.
The set of variables that determine a specific monetary indicator partially coincides with the set of variables that affect other indicators. This makes it possible to isolate the invariant (unchanging) component of such sets.
In our opinion, at present it is important to overcome the current orientation of monetary policy towards the financial market and ensure its connection with the state of the real sector of the economy. Therefore, as the invariant basis of the variables that determine the four objects of monetary policy, one should choose those that affect the dynamics of the profitability of companies in the real sector. At the same time, it should be taken into account that its profitability is related to the bank interest rate through the indicator of net profitability of entrepreneurial activity (NRR). This indicator is determined by the difference between the profitability in the real sector and interest rates on attracted loans. If entrepreneurial activity is carried out without attracting bank loans, NPV coincides with profitability.
NPV determines the supply of entrepreneurial activity. The ratio of NPV and bank rate on deposits connects the real and monetary sectors of the economy. The growth of the difference between the profitability and the interest rate increases the use of loans and leads to an increase in the money multiplier. Conversely, a fall in NPI causes a curtailment of business activity.
The profitability of the real sector and the interest rate on loans are determined by a partially coinciding set of variables. But the first ultimately depends on the technological level of the economy, its ability to produce competitive products, and the second - on the volume of the money supply, as well as the institutional foundations of the economic system, in particular, its ability to ensure the repayment of borrowed funds.
With mathematical formalization, we can designate the DCT function as F(x1, x2, x3, x4, x5), where: x1 - NPV; x2 - interest rate; x3 - money supply; x4 - inflation; x5 - exchange rate. In turn, each of the DCT objects is determined by a set of variables from y1 to yn. Moreover, some of these variables are common for each of the DCT objects, and some are specific. That's why:
F(x1, x2, x3, x4, x5) = F[x1(y1...yy) x2(y*...yy) x3(y1...yy) x4(y*...yy) x5 (y*...yn)]. (one)
This dependence can also be formalized using set theory. Let the BHPD belong to some set As with dimension s, which is a set of the space E: As [belongs to] E. Then As [belongs to] Am [belongs to] Ak [belongs to] A, [belongs to] Ap [belongs to] An, (2)
where: As - a set of variables NPPD; Am - set of variables of the interest rate; Ak - set of money supply variables; Al - set of inflation variables; Ap is a set of exchange rate variables; An is the set of DCT variables.
When developing and implementing monetary policy, one should take into account a refined interpretation of the efficiency of markets and the rational behavior of economic entities. In the traditional sense, markets are considered efficient if they ensure that all incoming information is taken into account in prices. In our opinion, this approach ignores the fact that the complication of information processes constantly creates new risks. Accordingly, financial markets operate under the constant threat of the emergence and realization of new risks. Therefore, these markets are characterized by a high probability of strong and unforeseen market fluctuations, and risks cannot be measured by the variance of the probability distribution, since there is no statistics on their manifestation. In particular, such risks were created by the securitization of bank assets and collateral transactions with structured financial instruments.
Business entities tend to take into account in their activities only those risks that they have faced before. Therefore, they do not behave rationally in relation to new risks. Thus, the risk of a systemic crisis was not correctly assessed as a result of the widespread use of hedging instruments. In this case, the risk is not eliminated, but moves between market participants along the boomerang trajectory. Overcoming the global financial crisis requires the monetary authorities to implement new methodological approaches to monetary policy, improve its tools, methods and mechanisms. Moreover, it is important to draw clear conclusions from the theoretical and practical mistakes made in the pre-crisis period. We must not allow excessive interweaving of the banking sector and the stock market, the widespread use of financial instruments as bank collateral, and reduce the ability of central banks to control the formation of liquidity.
Taking effective measures to prevent future global financial crises will require active international cooperation, on the same scale as the holding of the Bretton Woods and Jamaica international conferences. This will solve a number of problems that have not been given due attention until recently. For example, control over the formation of international liquidity as a result of the multiplication of reserve currencies should be ensured. This will most likely necessitate the elimination of banking offshore zones (such proposals have already been made by a number of developed countries, in particular Germany and France). Their activity not only weakens control over international liquidity, but is, in fact, unfair competition in the field of taxation. It is also necessary to unify the requirements for the quality of bank collateral and prevent the use of securities issued during the securitization of loans issued to secure new loan obligations.
*The work was financially supported by the Russian Humanitarian Foundation, project No. 08-02-91205a/U.
3 www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qa0809.pdf.
4 Bernanke W., Gertler M. Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices? // www.princeton.edu/~bernanke/currentpapers.htm.
5 Buiter W. Central Banks and Financial Crises // www.federalreserve.com.
6 Roubini N. Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles // www.rgemonitor.com.
7 Biggs B. Hedger came out of the fog ... / Per. from English. M. - SPb., 2007.
8 Goodhart Ch. What Weight Should Be Given to Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation // Economic Journal. 2001 Vol. III, June. P. 335.
10 See, in particular: Rozinsky I. International financial centers: world experience and opportunities for Russia // Questions of Economics. 2008. N 9.
A comparison of these two mechanisms is shown below:
Cheap money policy Dear money policy Issue: Unemployment and recession Issue: Inflation Central bank buys bonds Central bank sells bonds lowers reserve ratio increases reserve ratio lowers discount rate increases discount rate Money supply Money supply
increases decreases
Interest rate falls Interest rate rises Investment costs Increase Investment costs decrease
Real NNP increases by Inflation decreases by a multiple of the increase in investment
There is an inverse relationship between these two mechanisms. The growth in NNP caused by the cheap money policy, in turn, increases the demand for money, partially slowing down and blunting the efforts of the cheap money policy to lower interest rates. Conversely, a dear money policy lowers NNP. It is not this, in turn, that reduces the demand for money and weakens the original result of the policy of dear money, which was to raise interest. This feedback forms the core of the political dilemma of goals - the impossibility of simultaneously controlling both the money supply and the interest rate by means of monetary policy.
Thus, one should distinguish between short-term and long-term effects of monetary policy on the national economy. If in the short term the Central Bank, pursuing a policy of cheap money, stimulated the growth of NNP, then in the long term the effect of injections into the national economy is noticeably reduced.
On the issue of the consequences of monetary policy, the positions of neo-Keynesians and monetarists differ. Neo-Keynesians proceed from the premise that wages and prices are inflexible instruments, relatively stagnant, and NNP growth in the short term can be achieved by increasing the money supply; in the long run, such a policy will only lead to inflation. Monetarists, on the other hand, rely on the position that prices and wages are flexible instruments and believe that the policy of control over the money supply, both in the short and long term, can only affect the rate of inflation.
Faculty of Economics and Management Department of State and Municipal Management
COURSE WORK
in the discipline "Economics of the public sector"
State monetary policy
Head of work Senior Lecturer
Comptroller
Executor
student of group "_"_20_g.
Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
FEDERAL STATE BUDGET EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION OF HIGHER PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION
Faculty of Economics and Management
Department of State and Municipal Administration
State monetary policy
Initial data:
Legislative and regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation, statistical data from Rosstat, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Finance, as well as publications of domestic and foreign economists on the problem under study.
List of issues to be developed:
a) reveal the essence of monetary policy;
b) analyze the implementation of Russia's monetary policy;
List of graphic material:
Tables, diagrams, figures reflecting the main aspects of monetary policy.
In this term paper"The monetary policy of the state" considers the issues of monetary policy on the example of the Russian Federation.
The structure of this work is as follows.
The first chapter discusses the theoretical foundations and features of monetary policy, tools and objectives of monetary policy, models, as well as world experience in implementing this policy.
The second section analyzes the monetary policy for the period from 2008 to 2011, discusses the features of the implementation of monetary policy in the Russian Federation.
The work was printed on 44 pages using 26 sources, contains 5 tables, 7 figures and 1 appendix.
One of the necessary conditions for the effective development of the economy is the formation of a clear monetary policy mechanism that allows the Central Bank to influence business activity, control the activities of commercial banks, and achieve stabilization of monetary circulation.
Monetary policy is a very effective tool for influencing the country's economy, which does not violate the sovereignty of the majority, the subjects of the business system. Although this limits the scope of their economic freedom(without this, any regulation of economic activity is generally impossible), but the state influences the key decisions made by these entities only indirectly.
Ideally, monetary policy is designed to ensure price stability, full employment and economic growth - these are its highest and ultimate goals. However, in practice, with its help, it is also necessary to solve narrower tasks that meet the urgent needs of the country's economy.
We must not forget that monetary policy is an extremely powerful and therefore extremely dangerous tool. With its help, it is possible to get out of the crisis, but a sad alternative is not ruled out - the aggravation of the negative trends that have developed in the economy. Only very balanced decisions made on top level after a serious analysis of the situation, consideration of alternative ways of influencing monetary policy on the economy of the state, will give positive results. The central emission bank of the state acts as a conductor of monetary policy. Without the correct monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank, the economy cannot function effectively.
Today, in Russia, an effective monetary policy is designed to minimize inflation, promote sustainable economic growth, maintain exchange rate ratios at an economically justified level, stimulate the development of export-oriented and import-substituting industries, and significantly replenish the country's foreign exchange reserves. The task is quite difficult.
In this paper, the theoretical foundations of monetary policy will be considered, the monetary policy pursued by the Bank of Russia for the period from 2008-2011 will be analyzed, and a forecast for 2013-2015 will be given. and proposed the main ways to improve its efficiency.
Introduction ................................................ ................................
1 Essence, goals, instruments and models of monetary policy
states ................................................. ...............................
1.1 Essence, goals and instruments of monetary policy
states ................................................. ...............................
1.2 Models of the government's monetary policy...............................................
1.3 World experience in the implementation of monetary policy..................................
2 Analysis of the effectiveness of monetary policy in the Russian
Federation at the present stage .............................................................. .....
2.1 The role, functions and tools of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation ..............................
2.2 Characteristics of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia,
carried out in 2008 - 2009 .............................................. ..........
2.3 Monetary policy in 2010-2011 ..............................................
3 Prospects for Development and Measures to Improve the Monetary Policy of the Russian Federation..................................................................................
3.1 Macroeconomic development scenarios, goals and instruments for
2013 and the period of 2014 and 2015 .............................................. ......
3.2 Measures to improve Russia's monetary policy...
Conclusion................................................. ................................................. .......
List of sources used ..............................
Appendix A - Structural subdivisions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation .............................................. .........................
The monetary policy of the state is understood as a set of measures economic regulation money circulation and credit aimed at ensuring sustainable economic growth by influencing the level and dynamics of inflation, investment activity and other important macroeconomic processes.
The monetary, or monetary, policy of the state is a set of government measures in the field of money circulation and credit in order to regulate the supply of monetary resources to ensure non-inflationary economic growth.
Monetary policy is part of the overall macro economic policy, which affects the monetary factors of instability.
Monetary policy is to change the money supply in order to stabilize aggregate output (stable growth), employment and price levels.
The fundamental objectives of the state monetary policy are:
Sustainable growth rates of national production;
Stable prices;
High level of employment of the population;
Equilibrium of the balance of payments.
Also, the objectives of monetary policy can be divided into primary, intermediate and tactical. Figure 1 demonstrates this.
Figure 1 - Objectives of monetary policy
Monetary policy is carried out by the Central Bank of the country.
The effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the choice of instruments (methods) of monetary regulation.
The main general instruments of monetary policy are:
Establishment of a mandatory reserve ratio;
Regulation of the official discount rate;
Open market operations;
administrative measures.
The discount rate policy (discount policy) is expressed in the regulation of the rediscount rate in the Central Bank of bills (written obligations of debtors to pay a certain amount within a predetermined period within designated place) received from commercial banks. Those, in turn, receive bills of exchange from industrial, commercial and other companies. When defining your loan interest commercial banks are guided by the discount rate of the Central Bank.
The change in the value of the discount rate depends on the state of the economic situation: in a recession, the rate decreases and credit expands, and when the economy rises and there is a threat of overheating of the economy (that is, the threat of production going beyond effective demand in the market), the rate increases, and the volume of lending decreases.
According to the system of required reserves, commercial banks are required to keep a certain part of their credit resources in interest-free accounts of the Central Bank. The amount of reserves is set by the Central Bank in relation to deposits of commercial banks and ranges from 5 to 20%. Like the discount rate, the amount of reserves is adjusted depending on the economic situation. In an economic recovery, an increase in the reserve ratio limits credit opportunities commercial banks and, consequently, their credit expansion. A decrease in the reserve ratio during an economic downturn means an expansion of the credit resources of banks and the volume of their credit operations, commercial banks are the main object of regulation of the required reserve ratio, and other institutions usually follow the interest rate policy of commercial banks.
The regulation of the money supply through operations on the open market is expressed in the sale and purchase of government bonds by credit banking institutions. By selling bonds on the open market, the Central Bank thus reduces the credit resources of commercial banks and other credit institutions. These operations of the Central Bank reduce the supply of credit by banks and, therefore, contribute to an increase in interest rates in the market. And vice versa, by buying up part of such securities, the Central Bank expands the credit resources of commercial banks and other lending institutions.
The direct administrative influence of the state on the credit and banking system is one of the main means of monetary regulation carried out by the Central Bank. In practice, it finds expression in direct instructions to credit institutions in the form of various directives, instructions, as well as the application of sanctions. These measures mainly apply to commercial and savings banks.
The Central Bank controls the activities of commercial banks (especially suspicious transactions), conducts regular audits of credit institutions. Of great importance in credit regulation is the legislative and regulatory practice carried out by public authorities - parliament, government, local administration.
FROM credit regulation closely related is the regulation of the cash supply in circulation, also carried out by the Central Bank. His policy in this area is closely linked with the above four methods of credit regulation, and consequently, the sphere of circulation of credit (deposit) money. There are complex relationships between credit regulation and regulation of the money supply. For example, if the Central Bank carries out active operations for the sale of securities, then this action leads to a reduction in the supply of deposit money, and vice versa, the purchase of such securities is tantamount to expanding the deposit part of the money supply in circulation. The influence of the interest rate policy of the Central Bank and the system of required reserves is similar. Modern macroeconomic theory includes several concepts competing with each other, trying to explain the mechanism of the functioning of the market system and give recommendations on the management of the national economy, including in the field of monetary relations.
Representatives of various economic schools offer different ways to influence macroeconomic parameters with the help of monetary policy. The most famous are the Keynesian and monetarist concepts of monetary policy.
The Keynesian concept arose in the 1930s. In practice, it was applied in the United States by the administration of President F. Roosevelt to overcome the economic crisis, which was called the Great Depression. This kind of policy after World War II was also widely used in Western European countries.
The Keynesian concept provides for the active role of the interest rate in stimulating investment and entrepreneurial activity. J.M. Keynes proposed to use the "policy of cheap money" during periods of economic recession by lowering the discount rate of interest. Conversely, during periods of economic recovery, he proposed using a "dear money policy" by raising the discount rate in order to prevent the overheating of the economy and high inflation, which, as a rule, accompanies an economic boom.
Thus, according to Keynesian theory, monetary policy should be carried out in connection with certain phases business cycle and promptly respond to the state of the national economy. However, it should be noted that although the Keynesians consider the possibility of the impact of the interest rate on the size of investment and on real GDP, they simultaneously point out the possibility of the so-called "liquidity trap". The meaning of the “liquidity trap” is that in the face of an increase in the parameters of the money supply (that is, with a large scale of liquidity offered) and, consequently, with a decrease in the interest rate, investors still do not have a desire to expand the demand for money. This situation occurs when investors have no expectation in profits.
In this case, the causal relationship between the lowering of the interest rate and the increase in the money supply, on the one hand, and the expansion investment activity, business activity and the scale of GDP, on the other hand. Therefore, Keynesians believe that monetary policy is still not as effective as fiscal policy.
In the 70-80s of the twentieth century, almost all countries with market economy faced the phenomenon of stagflation, when the economic recession and stagnation in the economy were accompanied by high rates of unemployment and inflation.
In such a case, an active policy of cheap money, which was directed against recession and unemployment, led to the fact that inflation was even more exacerbated. In turn, high inflation hindered the desire to expand investment activities, and investors refrained from realizing investment projects. Consequently, the policy of cheap money did not achieve its goal.
At the same time, an anti-inflationary policy of expensive money could further exacerbate the recession and unemployment, as high interest rates curbed investment demand.
Under these conditions in economic theory the positions of neoclassicals begin to strengthen. In particular, there is an expansion of the influence of such a trend in neoclassical economic theory as monetarism. The most important representatives of the monetarist trend in economics are the American economists Irving Fisher and Milton Friedman.
Monetarists believe that active state intervention in the economy is inappropriate and should be limited only to the regulation of the money supply. Justifying their opinion, monetarists draw attention to the existence of so-called time lags in the economy. Time lags are periods of time between the adoption of certain economic decisions, including by the government and the central bank, and changes in the real situation in the economy. The time lag can be 6-9 months long. This is the period when economic actors will respond to the actions of government bodies. It is quite possible that the measures taken by the state will be belated.
Monetarists argue that monetary policy should not be associated with the phases of the economic cycle and it is necessary to move to a long-term policy of influencing the parameters of the money supply. In their opinion, there is a closer relationship between the amount of money in circulation and GDP parameters than between investment and GDP, and the dynamics of GDP follows the dynamics of changes in the money supply. The relationship between the parameters of nominal GDP and the amount of money in circulation in economic theory is described using the equation of exchange, the author of which, as noted earlier, is I. Fisher. According to monetarists, changes in the scale of the money supply can play an active role in influencing the price level, investment, unemployment, and GDP parameters.
In order to keep the country's economy in the mode of economic growth, it is necessary to annually increase the money supply in circulation, regardless of the phases of the cycle, by the value of the average annual rate at GDP growth calculated over a long period of time.
M. Friedman calculated that for the United States this average annual increase over a period of about a hundred years was equal to three percent. He substantiated and formulated the monetary rule, which found expression in the Friedman equation.
M - the average annual growth rate of money, calculated over a long period of time.
Y is the average annual GDP growth rate calculated over a long period of time.
P is the average annual growth rate of expected inflation.
The monetary rule assumes a strictly controlled increase in the money supply in circulation within 3-5% per year. With an increase in the money supply in excess of the specified parameters, inflation will “unwind”. Therefore, monetarists believe that inflation is the result of an ill-conceived policy of the state. If the rate of injection of money into the economy is less than 3% per year, then this will lead to a slowdown in the growth rate of real GDP, or even negative growth may be observed.
In turn, if the state adheres to a constant rate of growth of the money supply in the indicated parameters, then entrepreneurs in the money market will always find the money they need for investment, to replenish working capital, to pay wages. If at the same time the price of money (interest rate) is relatively high, then this will cut off a significant part of speculative transactions. According to monetarists, in order to fight inflation, it is necessary to make the monetary unit steadily expensive in order to prevent the expansion of speculative demand and make savings efficient. Entrepreneurs, knowing that the interest rate will be stable over a long period of time, and being sure that they will always find the amount of money they need in the money market, will be able to more accurately calculate their income from investment projects. Therefore, the higher price of money will not distract them from actions in favor of the implementation investment investments and enable economic growth.
Modern theoretical models of monetary policy are a synthesis of different approaches to the impact of monetary instruments. At the same time, the monetarist approach prevails in long-term policy. At the same time, in order to quickly maneuver, the state does not refuse to influence the interest rate.
The world economy has accumulated vast experience in the functioning of monetary and financial institutions, which makes it possible to assess their role in general monetary regulation economy, maintaining market liquidity, efficient payments, and the transfer of savings into investments. In the conditions of Russia, the country is of particular interest in familiarization with foreign experience in solving a number of problems of financial and economic stabilization, in particular, on the example of the most developed
countries of the world - Great Britain, Germany, Japan, USA and Mexico, which is one of the most developed countries in Latin America.
The Central Bank of Great Britain (Bank of England) is the government's adviser on monetary policy and its conductor. In the postwar years, he used almost all the main methods of monetary policy. In the 1940s monetary policy in accordance with the Keynesian recipes was seen as an addition to the financial one and was aimed mainly at maximizing the cost of public debt: a policy of "cheap money" was carried out, i.e. keeping interest rates low. The main instruments of monetary policy were the establishment of a fixed ratio of cash reserves to bank deposits and open market operations.
In the 1950s-1960s. monetary policy was carried out on the basis of neo-Keynesian concepts of counter-cyclical regulation. The features of the monetary regulation mechanism were frequent changes in the official discount rate, tightening or loosening of direct restrictions on bank loans depending on the state of the economic environment, the state of the balance of payments, the scale of inflation, as well as the use of operations with government bonds to stabilize their rates and lower the price of public debt. .
In 1971 the conservatives who came to power proclaimed a "new approach" to monetary regulation, based on neo-conservative concepts. Direct credit restrictions were noted and measures were taken to increase competition in the banking sector. This was accompanied by a sharp increase in the money supply and prices. Since the mid 1970s. there was an increase in the influence of neoconservative concepts on monetary policy: limits were set for the growth of the money supply, a number of measures were taken to stimulate the placement of government debt obligations outside banking system, financial policy began to be considered primarily from the point of view of its influence on the money supply.
Since coming to power in 1979. conservative government of M. Thatcher, the direction of monetary policy began to be determined by the deviation of the growth rate of the money supply from the established limits. The main method of control of the Bank of England over the growth of the money supply was its operations for the purchase and sale of bills, and mainly commercial, not treasury ones, and the placement of government obligations outside the banking system.
In the 1990s The main instrument of monetary policy in the UK, as in other developed countries, has become open market operations.
Since January 1, 1999 The Bank of England is a member of the European System of Central Banks, which is headed by the European Central Bank, being a member with a special status: it does not have the authority to participate in decision-making on issues of a single monetary policy.
Great Britain uses its own currency and pursues an independent monetary policy.
As part of the conduct of monetary regulation, the German Federal Bank, like other central banks of the world, uses certain methods, among which a special place is occupied by the policy of reserve requirements. The Federal Bank, in accordance with the Central Bank Law, may establish interest rates on obligations on demand deposits in the amount of not more than 30%, on term deposits no more than 20, for savings - no more than 10%, and for obligations to foreign institutions, the bank can set an interest rate of up to 100%. The real change in the norms of required reserves is carried out by the Federal Bank if it is necessary to increase or decrease the money supply in the country, however, this can only be carried out in agreement with the European Central Bank and within the framework of the common monetary policy of the EU. In particular, the minimum reserve ratio at the beginning of the third stage of the economic and monetary union was 2.0%. Subsequently, this norm changed within the limits of 2-2.07% (January 2007).
Equally important is such an approach as an accounting or discount policy, which is used to pursue a policy of "cheap" and "expensive" money in accordance with the economic situation of the country. For example, in recent years, central bank monetary policy has focused on stimulating economic activity by setting low interest rates. Therefore, the policy becomes more aggressive, which led to a reduction in the discount rate in 2009 from 2.75 to 2%. In European countries, the possibility of a decrease in interest was due to the obligation of central banks to strive to achieve the benchmarks set for the growth of domestic consumer prices. In particular, in accordance with paragraph 247 of the Federal Law, such approximate rates were: as of January 1, 2009 -1.97; as of July 1, 2009 - 1.22; January 1, 2010 - 1.14; . -1.13 and as of January 1, 2011 - 1.21%. In this regard, there was an increase in the M3 aggregate by 8.7%, and loans - by 5%. When pursuing an open market policy, the Federal Bank carries out the purchase and sale of government securities.
The Federal Bank also uses in its arsenal such a method of regulation as targeting. Every year, he publishes a target corridor for a year to increase the amount of money. The basis for establishing the quantity of money is the assumption of an increase in production potential, the normative development of prices and changes in the velocity of money. Having information about the amount of money, the German economy is provided with benchmarks, within which the bank considers it appropriate, on the one hand, to allow for possible growth, and on the other, to severely limit inflation. At the same time, given that the currency is also in circulation in other EU countries, all this is carried out on the basis of the developments of the European Central Bank.
Turning to the experience of Japanese economists in the field of monetary regulation, it is necessary to note the following points that could be useful for solving our problems in the field of monetary regulation.
Manufacturing corporations in Japan had weak financial capacity in the early post-war decades, so the banking system played a huge role in creating the conditions for accelerated industrial growth in the 50s and 60s.
It should be noted that main feature functioning of the banking system in Japan for almost the entire post-war period was a high degree of government control. Relying on such an instrument as Central Bank loans to the private financial sector on preferential terms, the state bureaucracy actually regulated both interest rates and lending directions, which made it possible to relatively successfully implement state priorities. At the same time, the mechanism of such regulation was based on the extremely high demand for money from the non-financial sector and the constant excess of loans over the amount of funds in bank deposits. Subsequently, the gradual increase in the role of self-financing and, accordingly, the lesser dependence of industrial corporations on bank lending eventually undermined the possibilities of administrative management on the part of the Central Bank and became one of the reasons for the liberalization of the monetary market.
In the past ten years, the main feature of the modern Japanese capital market has been an artificial structure and strict regulation of interest rates. At the same time, the liberalization of interest rates in the last decade was determined not so much by considerations of efficiency as by the need to place a huge number of government bonds on the market and pressure from outside, and long-term loan rates are not quite marketable to this day.
As for the tools of the monetary policy of the Central Bank, such classical means as manipulating the discount rate and reserve ratios, as well as operations on the open securities market in Japan, during several post-war decades, were of very little importance, yielding in this capacity to direct quantitative rationing of credit in conditions of an artificially low level of interest.
Recently, however, the situation has changed somewhat: the easing of tension in the loan capital market, its internationalization, as well as the emergence of alternatives in the form of a growing stock market, to a large extent eliminated the objective economic basis of administrative regulation and forced the Bank of Japan to reconsider its attitude to traditional, classical instruments. . Interest rate flexibility has increased and the discount rate has been raised to market levels. Since 1971, the Bank of Japan began operations in the bill market, and later proceeded to active operations with government bonds, switching to an open subscription system for them. Finally, a market for short-term government securities was formed and massive operations began in other short-term capital markets. All this indicates a qualitative change in the model of regulation of the credit and financial sector with an emphasis on indirect methods of such regulation, mediated by the liquid positions of banks, acting as direct subjects of credit expansion.
Consider the specific goals and mechanism of monetary policy. The approach to this policy was based on the idea of selective support - a kind of "artificial selection of enterprises". The initiative in carrying out reforms in this area was taken by the government. And here it actively used the double effect of lowering interest rates: on the one hand, the administrative setting of interest rates at an extremely low level (from 1962 to 1977) artificially exceeded the rate of accumulation, redistributing funds in favor of the banking sector, and on the other hand, the regulation of lending rates and the shortage of loan capital thus created allowed the Central Bank and the government, in essence, to direct it to the largest corporations in the field of heavy industry and export industries. The main thesis of the policy pursued is that neither the Bank of Japan nor the government considered it possible to leave the decision on the direction of the redistribution of funds, and, accordingly, the scarce resources available, to the spontaneous market process. It was precisely the ability of the highest state apparatus to avoid excessive dependence on the momentary interests of initial accumulation and to use all the power of state coercion to comply with the established "rules of the game" that apparently became one of the reasons for the country's rapid and healthy economic recovery in the 50s and 70s. years.
Similar features can be found in the mechanism of control over the money supply by the Bank of Japan. Without relying on indirect control, the Bank resorted to direct intervention in the processes in the bank lending markets, primarily in the short term. "The Bank of Japan directly controlled the formation of the bulk of the money supply. Attempts to influence investment demand through money supply regulators have a limited effect when they lowering interest rates or liberalizing the supply of credit cannot, in and of themselves, stimulate productive investment. In Japan, the high level of investment demand was based on "business confidence in the future of the economy, which determined a high rate of return on capital. Therefore, the policy of lowering the interest rate in the market of credit resources and the rationing of credit had as their main goal the redistribution of funds from the population and small businesses in favor of the largest corporations capable of making effective investments.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia) is the main bank of the Russian Federation. It was created and operates on the basis of the Federal Law of July 10, 2002 No. 86-FZ “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)” (as amended on 10.01.0E) [SZ RF. 2002. No. 28. Art. 2790; 2003. No. 2. Art. 157.], his property is federal property. The Bank of Russia exercises the authority to own, use and dispose of its property, including its gold and foreign exchange reserves.
The development of monetary policy by the Bank of Russia is carried out in accordance with Art. 45 of the Federal Law "On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)". The Bank of Russia annually no later than August 26 submits to the State Duma a draft of the main directions of the unified state monetary policy for the coming year and no later than December 1 - the main directions of the unified state monetary policy for the coming year. The project is preliminary presented to the President and the Government of Russia.
The Central Bank is vested with the right to monopoly issue banknotes, regulate money circulation and the exchange rate, and store gold and foreign exchange reserves. The most important function of the Central Bank is the development of a common monetary policy. Its strategic task is to create conditions for non-inflationary development of the economy /
The Bank of Russia has three main objectives of its activities, enshrined in the Law "On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)":
1) protection and stability of the ruble;
2) development and strengthening of the banking system of the Russian Federation;
3) ensuring the efficient and uninterrupted functioning of the payment system.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation performs the following functions:
In cooperation with the Government of the Russian Federation develops and implements a unified state monetary policy;
Monopoly issues cash and organizes cash circulation;
Is a lender of last resort for credit institutions, organizes a system of their refinancing;
Establishes the rules for making settlements in Russia;
Establishes the rules for banking operations;
Maintains accounts of budgets of all levels of the budget system of the Russian Federation by carrying out settlements on behalf of authorized
executive authorities and state off-budget funds responsible for organizing the execution and execution of budgets;
Carries out effective management of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Russia;
Makes a decision about state registration credit institutions, issues licenses to credit institutions to carry out banking operations, suspends their validity and revokes them;
Supervises the activities of credit institutions and banking groups;
Registers the issue of securities by credit institutions;
Carries out all types of banking operations and other transactions necessary to perform the functions of the Bank of Russia;
Organizes and implements currency regulation and currency control in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation;
Determines the procedure for making settlements with international organizations, foreign states, as well as with legal and individuals;
Establishes accounting and reporting rules for the banking system
Establishes the procedure and conditions for the implementation by currency exchanges of activities to organize the conduct of operations for the purchase and sale of foreign currency;
It analyzes and forecasts the state of the Russian economy, publishes materials and statistical data.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is a single centralized system with a vertical management structure. The system includes: the central office, territorial offices, settlement
cash centers, data centers, field offices and educational establishments, vaults, as well as other enterprises, institutions and organizations, including security units, necessary for the successful operation of the bank. The structure of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is clearly shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2 - Scheme of the structure of the Central Bank of Russia
National banks republics that are part of the Russian Federation are territorial institutions of the Bank of Russia. They do not have the status of a legal entity and do not have the right to make decisions of a regulatory nature, as well as issue guarantees and sureties, promissory notes and other obligations without the permission of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia.
The tasks and functions of the territorial institutions of the Bank of Russia are determined by the Regulations on these institutions approved by the Board of Directors. Currently, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is considering the possibility that they can be created according to economic regions uniting the territories of several subjects of the Russian Federation. According to the Regulations of the Bank of Russia, “a territorial institution of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (TU) is a separate subdivision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which performs part of its functions on the territory of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation.”
The territorial institutions of the Bank of Russia are its main departments in the territories, regions and autonomous districts of the Russian Federation, the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg, the National Banks of the republics within the Russian Federation. The territorial institutions of the Bank of Russia do not have the status of a legal entity. By decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank
In Russia, territorial institutions can be created for economic regions that unite the territories of several constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
The supreme body of the Bank of Russia is the Board of Directors. This is a collegial body that determines the main areas of activity of the Bank of Russia and manages it. The Board of Directors includes the Chairman of the Bank of Russia and 12 members of the Board.
Members of the Board of Directors work here on a permanent basis. They are approved by the State Duma on the proposal of the Chairman of the Bank, who is also the Chairman of the Board of Directors.
The Board of Directors, in cooperation with the Government, develops a unified state monetary policy and ensures its implementation.
Structure and states central office The Bank of Russia, as well as the charters of its other structural divisions, are approved by this Council. The Board of Directors not only heads and organizes the work of the Bank of Russia, but also regulates the activities of the country's commercial banks.
Along with it, the National Banking Council functions outside the bank. It includes representatives of the President, representatives of the highest bodies of legislative and executive power, and experts. The total number of the council does not exceed 15 people. Council members are approved by the State Duma on the proposal of the Chairman of the Bank of Russia.
The functional structure implies the existence in the bank of separate divisions (departments, departments) that implement the functions of the bank in accordance with the division of its activities into separate parts. If the volume of tasks solved by these departments is large enough, then additional, smaller structural units - departments - can be created inside them. This functional structure is presented in Appendix A.
For the normal functioning of the monetary system, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation uses the following tools and methods of monetary policy:
Interest rates on Bank of Russia operations;
Required reserve ratios deposited with the Bank of the Russian Federation (reserve requirements);
Open market operations;
Bank refinancing;
Currency regulation;
Cash management;
Direct quantitative restrictions;
Issue of own securities.
The form of monetary emission of the Bank of Russia - foreign exchange interventions - is closely tied to the foreign currency entering Russia. The recipients of such "emission" non-cash rubles are mainly large resident exporters who are obliged to sell part of their foreign exchange earnings, who become owners of excess amounts of money in rubles. Such resident organizations and lending institutions servicing them experience certain difficulties in placing on the monetary market or reinvesting their free ruble resources. With the monetary regulation mechanism that has developed in Russia, they cannot receive the necessary funds for a period sufficient to carry out the investment process. The rubles emitted by the Bank of Russia in the process of foreign exchange interventions do not reach them, and the imperfection of the banking system, distrust between credit institutions and small enterprises, the high cost of bank loans do not allow them to acquire the necessary credit funds in the banking services market.
As a result of the low capitalization of the banking system, reliance on self-financing, and insufficient development of the corporate bond market, there was no active use of national savings. Therefore, both public and private savings went abroad, including in the form of accumulated state reserves, which were subsequently borrowed to invest in Russian companies. Those. due to the fact that the domestic interbank market was focused on external refinancing (the share of loans from non-resident banks exceeded 70% of the total volume of loans received by banks from other credit institutions), an almost complete suspension of the provision of external loans Russian banks as a result of the global financial crisis had a negative impact on the functioning of the entire money market.
As a result, a low level of confidence in the ruble was formed due to a decrease in the inflow of foreign currency into the country and a significant, comparable to our reserves, level of external corporate debt of companies and banks, which, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as of 01.10.2008, amounted to. about $388.9 billion in foreign currency and the equivalent of $108.7 billion in rubles. In the 4th quarter of 2008 Russian companies and banks had to return to non-residents on previously taken loans about 47.5 billion dollars (42.5 - debt, 5 - percent), but in 2009. - already 115.7 billion dollars (100.1 - debt, 15.6 - interest). Therefore, the money that in the fall of 2009. were allocated to support the banking system, largely ended up in the foreign exchange market, not reaching the economy, reducing the country's reserves. (The gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation for the period from 08/01/2008 to 10/24/2008, i.e. for almost 3 months, decreased by 18.6% - 111.2 billion dollars (from 595.9 to 484.7 billion dollars) .
However, in general, the level of monetization of the Russian economy is low (about 40%). Therefore, the main problem, and, in fact, the cause of the crisis is the shortage of rubles. At the same time, one of the most important economic parameters is the volume and dynamics of the money supply (M2), which represents the volume of cash in circulation (outside banks) and balances in national currency on the accounts of legal entities (except banks) and individuals, which largely determines demand in the economy. As of September 1, 2008, the growth of the M2 money supply just before the development of the crisis amounted to only 9.5% (with benchmarks of 30-35%), with inflation over the same period of 9.7%. By the beginning of September, the real volume of the money supply practically did not increase. As of September 1, 2008, M2 amounted to 14,530.1 billion rubles, and its growth in September as of October 1, 2008, under the influence of capital outflow, became negative - 1.1%, amounting to 8.3% since the beginning of the year (M2 as of October 1, 2008). .2008 - 14,374.6 billion rubles).
Table 1 - Money supply in 2009 (billion rubles)
According to Table 1, during 2009, the money supply was declining for almost the entire period compared to the beginning of the year, and the growth for the year was 16.3%.
At the same time, as can be seen from Table 2 and the diagram built on its basis (Figure 3), until 2008. there was a constant increase in the money supply. In 2000
2008 the seasonal growth of the M2 aggregate averaged about 19.7%, and also about 44% per year. Therefore, the reason for the reduction in the money supply during the period
The crisis was caused by the chosen direction of monetary regulation and, to a large extent, “savings” of budget expenditures in order to combat inflation. At the same time, the experience of 7 years of economic growth showed the absence of a direct dependence of consumer price growth on the rate of increase in the money supply (M2) (as well as the opposite trend) and that the growth of the money supply with an increase in the degree of monetization contributed, along with the strengthening of the ruble, to a decrease in inflation.
Table 2 - Main parameters of the monetary policy and economy of the Russian Federation in 2000
Figure 3 - Dynamics of money supply and inflation in 2000-2008
As can be seen from Table 2 and the diagram built on its basis (Figure
3), until 2008 there was a constant growth in the money supply. In 2000-2008 the seasonal growth of the M2 aggregate averaged about 19.7%, and also about 44% per year. Therefore, the reason for the reduction in the money supply during the crisis was the chosen direction of monetary regulation and, to a large extent, the "savings" of budget expenditures in order to combat inflation. At the same time, the experience of 7 years of economic growth showed the absence of a direct dependence of consumer price growth on the rate of increase in the money supply (M2) (as well as the opposite trend) and that the growth of the money supply with an increase in the degree of monetization contributed, along with the strengthening of the ruble, to a decrease in inflation.
In addition, one of the weaknesses of the Russian monetary system is the revaluation of the ruble against other currencies, including dollars (the “currency band” problem). Due to the serious revaluation of the ruble in the face of falling oil prices and a reduction in the inflow of foreign exchange earnings into the country, it became necessary to go for a significant weakening of the ruble against foreign currencies. This weakening caused a trend towards dollarization of the country, partial abandonment of the ruble due to its depreciation in calculations, and other undesirable phenomena. Over the past 4 months of the crisis, the population has acquired 70 billion dollars, and 1/4 of deposits in banks have become foreign currency. Attempts to contain such a depreciation of the ruble led to the cost of large amounts of gold and foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, it is necessary to gradually and carefully bring the ruble to the market exchange rate and avoid strong distortions in the future.
The most important problem of the Russian financial system is its small scale. The ratio of banking system assets to GDP as of 01.01.2008 is about 61%, while in developed countries it is over 100%. The banking system is not sufficiently developed, the reasons for this are the personal poverty of a significant part of the population (about 30-40%), which contributes to a decrease in savings, as well as enormous regional development disparities, in which about 60% of all financial resources concentrates in Moscow. A significant reason for the backwardness of the economy and financial markets- lack of market capitalization of a significant amount of the country's resources, which creates the need to develop the country's financial infrastructure, send money to the most backward regions, increase the money supply and government spending adequately to economic growth, lend against assets, and create effective mechanisms for refinancing the banking system.
Based on the foregoing, we can conclude that a serious reason that gives rise to problems in the monetary sphere of Russia is the lack of high-quality legal norms that establish an interconnected system of institutions that form a single agreed mechanism for regulating monetary relations, delimiting their competence, determining the order of interaction and distribution of responsibility between them.
Let us consider in more detail the directions of monetary policy during the financial crisis and the measures to overcome it.
At the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008, the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia as a whole was characterized by a lack of consistency and clarity of methodological approaches. This was expressed in a vague definition of the main objectives of the interest rate policy, the lack of development of a methodology for assessing the demand for money and conceptual approaches to the formation of the money supply, inefficient management of gold and foreign exchange reserves, the absence of systemic measures to form an international financial center on the Russian territory, insufficient policy coordination with the state of the financial market and banking sector. In particular, when developing the main directions of monetary policy, the Bank of Russia does not determine its objects and features of the transmission mechanism.
During the period when Russia entered the global recession, the Bank of Russia, in cooperation with the Government, developed various measures taken to ensure the stability of the financial system, which can be divided into two groups: interest rate policy and other measures.
The activation of the interest rate policy was one of the first measures taken by the Bank of Russia in response to the changed conditions for the development of the economy and the high level of inflation. Interest rate policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 2008-2009. can be divided into two stages. At the first stage, the Bank of Russia raised the refinancing rate six times. At the same time, prior to the first rate hike during the crisis, the RF Central Bank lowered rates on a number of instruments for providing liquidity to credit institutions without changing the refinancing rate. This measure was designed to facilitate banks' access to liquid resources. As a result of the increases, the refinancing rate increased from 11% to 13% per annum, and the rates on CBR loans to commercial banks increased by a comparable amount. The main reason for the increase in interest rates was the desire of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to increase the cost of resources attracted from it by credit institutions and then invested in foreign exchange assets.
As the situation on the financial markets stabilized, the Bank of Russia began to gradually ease its monetary policy. In April-December 2009, the RF Central Bank reduced interest rates seven times. During this period, the refinancing rate was reduced from 13 to 8.75% per annum (see Table 3, Figure 2), and the rates on Bank of Russia operations - by 3.5-4.5 percentage points. However, as the Bank of Russia itself admits, its interest rate policy does not yet have a decisive impact on the structure of market rates, and, consequently, on the real terms of borrowing in the Russian economy, which is due to the presence of excessive and diverse rates on transactions with banks and the absence of clearly defined benchmarks. in interest rate policy
Table 3 shows the refinancing rates of the Central Bank for different periods of time.
Table 3 - Dynamics of the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of Russia
|
Validity |
Refinancing rate, % |
Figure 4 - Dynamics of the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of Russia
With the help of the instrument of reserve requirements, the Bank of Russia gave a quick response to the need to expand the money supply. In conditions when bank liquidity had to be quickly adjusted, and the financial market did not allow it, reserve requirements proved to be especially useful. For these purposes, the Bank of Russia has decided to temporarily reduce from September 18, 2008 reserve requirements by 4 percentage points for each category of reserve liabilities. From October 15, 2008, reserve requirements amounted to 0.5% for all types of liabilities with their subsequent increase starting from May 1, 2009 to 1%, from June 1, 2009 to 1.5%, from July 1, 2009. up to 2%, from August 1, 2009 to 2.5%.
Changes in the conditions for the implementation of monetary policy determined the need for the Bank of Russia to increase the priority of achieving the goal of maintaining banking stability through open market operations. On September 18, 2008, the Bank of Russia lowered fixed interest rates on its 1-day liquidity provision operations (direct REPO, "currency swap", Lombard loans) from 9% to 8% per annum, and the minimum interest rate on Lombard credit auctions for a period of 2 weeks has been changed from 8 to 7.5% per annum. Interest rates on loans from the Bank of Russia secured by non-marketable assets or guarantees were also reduced: for up to 30 days - from 10 to 9.5% per annum, for up to 90 days - from 8 to 7.5% per annum, for a period of 91 up to 180 days - from 9 to 8.5% per annum.
In addition, the Bank of Russia softened the conditions for receiving funds using certain types of collateral: abolished 1.25% discounts on direct REPO operations with OFZ and OBR, increased the values of the Bank of Russia adjustment coefficients used to calculate the value of Bank of Russia bonds, as well as the adjustment coefficients of the Bank of Russia used to calculate the value of collateral for Bank of Russia loans secured by non-marketable assets and guarantees from credit institutions were increased by 0.2.
In order to reduce the volatility of short-term interbank lending rates, since September 2008, the Bank of Russia began to set a limit on the amount of funds placed at the first direct REPO auction. In order to restore the efficiency of the bond market and provide additional liquidity to credit institutions in October 2008, direct REPO operations were restored for a period of three months without setting the lower and upper limits of the discount, which implies the absence of pre-compensatory contributions.
However, it was not possible to keep the rates in the indicated sizes for a long time. On February 9, 2009, in order to take additional measures to contain inflationary trends and ensure the stability of the ruble exchange rate, the Bank of Russia decided to raise interest rates on credit transactions and direct repo transactions.
For direct REPO operations (at fixed interest rates)
for a period of 1 day - 11% per annum, for a period of 7 days - 11% per annum;
The minimum interest rate on Lombard loan auctions for a period of two weeks is 9.5% per annum;
For loans secured by non-marketable assets or guarantees for up to 90 calendar days - in the amount of 11% per annum, for a period of 91 to 180 calendar days - in the amount of 11.5% per annum.
Despite the active use of the refinancing instrument, the use of its types provided for by law in the crisis phase was not enough, and therefore, on October 20, 2008, the Central Bank tested a new tool to support the financial system - providing Russian credit institutions with loans without collateral for a period of not more than six months, and from December 30, 2008 for a period not exceeding one year. According to experts, this kind of refinancing was urgently needed by credit institutions to combat the liquidity crisis. According to a review of the banking sector, in the worst month of 2008 - October - credit institutions had to borrow from the Central Bank an unprecedentedly large amount - 1.2 trillion. rubles, which in terms of volume corresponds to about a third of the equity capital of all Russian banks. These borrowings allowed credit institutions to compensate for losses incurred due to the revaluation of the securities portfolio and the outflow of deposits, as well as the costs of issuing loans.
Given the active withdrawal of funds by investors from Russian assets and the associated increase in demand for foreign currency, the actions of the Bank of Russia were aimed at preventing an excessive weakening of the ruble and maintaining the value of the dual-currency basket. In this regard, in August-December 2008, the Bank of Russia sold foreign currency on the domestic market. As a result, the volume of international reserves dropped sharply and their total volume as of January 1, 2009 fell to $427.1 billion. Many experts assessed the spending of international reserves to support the ruble as an "inadequate policy." However, this policy continued until January 2009 in order to avoid sharp fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. In order to avoid devaluation, on January 23, 2009, the upper limit of the currency band for the value of the bi-currency basket was set at 41 rubles. The results of the devaluation became noticeable already in the first quarter of 2009. Since the beginning of February, the Bank of Russia has not sold foreign currency on the foreign exchange market. Moreover, in order to prevent strong fluctuations in the exchange rate on certain days, he had to buy foreign currency. Thus, according to the data in Table 4 and Figure 5, the value of foreign currency by 2009 for seven years (since 2003) reached its maximum value: 30.24 per dollar and 43.39 per euro (at the end of the year) .
Table 4 - Dynamics of foreign exchange rates against the ruble for the period 2000-2009
Figure 5 - Dynamics official courses foreign currencies against the ruble for 2000-2009.
Such an instrument of monetary regulation, as the establishment of benchmarks for the growth of the money supply, manifested itself during the crisis in the following. The processes of transformation of ruble savings into foreign exchange assets, the decline in the money supply, influencing the dynamics budget revenues, which are the source of the formation of the reserve fund and the sovereign wealth fund, determined the need to clarify the net credit to the general government before the end of 2008. Other indicators were also clarified monetary program(including net credit to banks and other net unclassified assets), taking into account measures taken by the Government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia to support the financial sector.
In addition, the Bank of Russia issued bonds on its own behalf. In September 2008, a new OBR issue was placed, however, due to the fact that during the indicated period credit institutions began to experience a lack of liquidity, the volume of OBR placements at the auction was two times lower than the volume of purchases by the Bank of Russia of its bonds in the secondary market. In October 2008, the debt of the Bank of Russia to credit institutions practically did not change. Only the auction held on October 2 was recognized as successful, with the placed volume of only about 10 million rubles. on weighted average rate 6.3% per annum. In November 2008-February 2009, the instruments of the Bank of Russia for absorbing liquidity also remained of little demand.
As a result of the measures discussed above, the situation in the banking sector has stabilized: it has been possible to avoid the bankruptcy of many banks, to stop the outflow of household deposits, and to continue lending to the economy. The outflow of household deposits from banks peaked in October (then it amounted to 6% and practically stopped in November). In December, the inflow of funds from the population into deposits resumed. The liquidity situation has normalized.
Thus, the package of anti-crisis measures implemented by the Bank of Russia at the height of the crisis, as a whole, corresponded to the standard scheme of foreign authors, but was to a certain extent inconsistent. In general, it was possible to prevent the spread of "banking panic" and partially restore the confidence of economic entities in the national banking system. Among the stabilization anti-crisis measures, it is necessary to single out: strengthening the resource base of banks and saturating the banking system with additional liquidity, increasing the capital of systemically important banks, increasing to 700 thousand rubles. state guarantee of the safety of deposits of individuals, the decision to prevent the bankruptcy of banks through reorganization, merger and other measures, the implementation of a "smooth" devaluation national currency, permission not to temporarily revalue bank assets at current market value, strengthening the protection of the legal rights of creditors.
In 2010-2011 The Bank of Russia pursued its monetary policy based on the need to create favorable conditions for the long-term economic development of the country. The low level of inflation and the stability of the national currency were the basis for making effective decisions in the field of savings, investments and consumer spending - the basics for sustainable economic growth. Therefore, the main goal
the unified state monetary policy pursued by the Bank of Russia jointly with the Government of the Russian Federation for this period was a steady decline in inflation and maintaining it at a low level, while it was supposed to reduce inflation to 8.7-9.2% in 2010 and 78 .5% in 2011.
To achieve its goals, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation used all the monetary policy instruments available to it, which made it possible to quickly respond to changes in the intensity and direction of movement. financial flows within the set goals of monetary policy.
The system of monetary policy instruments was supposed to ensure the stability of the money market and, at the same time, encourage credit institutions to manage their own liquidity more efficiently.
If banks needed additional liquidity, they could use the set of instruments offered by the Bank of Russia for these purposes. During the day, these could be secured intraday loans provided by the Bank of Russia without charging a fee, as well as auctions of one-day direct REPO held in the morning and afternoon. In addition, on a weekly basis, the Bank of Russia carried out operations to provide liquidity to banks for more than long terms. At the end of the trading day, credit institutions had access to standing instruments of the Bank of Russia - overnight loans and FX swaps, the interest rates for which were set at the level of the refinancing rate.
The Central Bank of Russia regulated refinancing rates taking into account the real state of the economy, inflation dynamics, the situation in various segments of the money market and was focused on consolidating the emerging positive trends.
Since the beginning of 2010, the Bank of Russia has twice decided to reduce the refinancing rate on January 15, 2010 from 16% to 14% per annum, and on June 15, 2010, from 14 to 13% per annum. Its next decrease occurred only at the end of December 2011 - it was lowered to 12%.
When managing liquidity, in Q2 2011, credit institutions actively used the mechanism of intraday lending and overnight loans of the Bank of Russia, the largest volume of which fell on April 2011. In general, the volume of intraday loans provided by the Bank of Russia increased from 2.3 trillion. rub. in the first quarter of 2011 to 2.6 trillion. rub. in the II quarter, and overnight loans - from 5.9 to 14.3 billion rubles. respectively. At the end of each calendar month, there was a traditional increase in demand for intraday loans from credit institutions and the volume of "overnight" loans provided.
Against the backdrop of a downward trend in inflation dynamics, from 06/26/2010 the Bank of Russia reduced the refinancing rate and interest rates on overnight loans and FX swap transactions from 12 to 11.5% per annum, and from 23 October - to 11%. However, the refinancing rate in the period 2010-2011 did not have a significant impact on monetary indicators, primarily due to the fact that, in conditions of excess liquidity, commercial banks did not experience a significant need for borrowing from the Central Bank.
In 2010, the decision of the Bank of Russia to reduce the required reserve ratios, which were adopted in order to gradually level out competitive conditions for Russian and foreign credit institutions, played a major role in resolving the problem of shortage of ruble liquidity in the money market in 2010.
On July 8, 2010, the required reserves ratio for deposits of individuals in the currency of the Russian Federation was reduced from 7% to 3.5%, as a result of which the amount of released funds amounted to more than 150 billion rubles. In addition, since July 1, 2010, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation granted the right to average the required reserves to credit institutions within the averaging ratio of 0.2 established by the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia. The use of this mechanism also contributed to the increase in the liquidity of credit institutions.
The required reserves ratio for liabilities to individuals in the currency of the Russian Federation and the required reserves ratio for other liabilities of credit institutions in the currency of the Russian Federation and liabilities in foreign currency did not change in 2011. During this period, credit institutions actively used the averaging of required reserves, that is, they fulfilled a part of the required reserves by maintaining the corresponding average monthly balance of funds on the correspondent account and correspondent sub-accounts of the credit institution with the Bank of Russia. The number of credit institutions that were granted the right to average the required reserves constantly increased and in June 2011 reached 681 (or 55.2% of the total number of operating credit institutions).
Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the period from 2010-2011. gradually reduced the norm of mandatory requirements for credit institutions so that they began to lend more extensively to the real sector of the economy and, above all, to the manufacturing sector. However commercial organizations they were not particularly eager to lend to the domestic industry due to the high risk and complexity of assessing the economic situation. Thus, the reservation itself is an ineffective instrument of monetary policy, since there is little, which adds to the existing persistent reluctance of banks to funnel money into the economy.
In 2010, the situation on the domestic foreign exchange market was formed under the influence of an increase in the supply of foreign currency from exporters as a result of the continuing rise in oil prices, as well as an increase in the investment attractiveness of ruble assets against the backdrop of a weakening US dollar on the world market. In this situation, the Bank of Russia sought to maintain the balance of supply and demand in the domestic
foreign exchange market, carrying out large-scale purchases of foreign currency during periods of increased upward pressure on the ruble exchange rate. Based on the results for the Russian Federation on foreign currencies, from February 1, 2010, the Bank of Russia switched to using as a new operational benchmark the cost of a dual-currency basket denominated in rubles, consisting of US dollars and euros in proportions established by the Bank of Russia. At the same time, the formation of the US dollar exchange rate against the ruble in the domestic foreign exchange market during the day and a period of several days acquired a freer character, and operations to limit intraday and short-term fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate against the ruble were carried out by the Bank of Russia based on the boundaries of fluctuations in the value of the dual-currency basket. Since August 1, the bi-currency basket consisted of 0.35 euros and 0.65 dollars. USA. Over 10 months, the volume of purchases of foreign currency by the Bank of Russia amounted to more than 11 billion dollars.
In July-September 2010, the Bank of Russia carried out both the sale of government bonds from its own portfolio and the purchase of government securities. In general, the volume of net sales of government securities by the Bank of Russia for the third quarter remained at the level of the previous quarter (2.6 billion rubles) .
In the first half of 2011 The Central Bank of the Russian Federation continued to conduct monetary policy within the framework of the managed floating ruble exchange rate regime.
In order to keep the volatility of the ruble exchange rate against foreign currencies significant for the Russian Federation at a relatively low level, in 2011 the Bank of Russia continues to use the ruble value of the basket of euros and US dollars as an operational benchmark.
In 2011, the ratio of supply and demand in the domestic foreign exchange market was determined by the high level of positive current account balance of the balance of payments, due to the inflow of significant additional export earnings into the Russian economy due to the favorable external economic situation, as well as cross-border capital flows. Under these conditions, the operations of the Bank of Russia in the domestic foreign exchange market were mainly aimed at preventing an excessive appreciation of the effective ruble exchange rate under the influence of an excess supply of foreign currency. The result of these transactions was a net purchase of foreign currency. In particular, in January-September 2011. The Bank of Russia acted as a net buyer of foreign currency.
The growth rate of deposits in foreign currency (in dollar terms) in the first half of 2011 amounted to 10.2%, which is two times lower than the growth rate of deposits in the national currency.
The dynamics of net foreign assets of the banking system was an important source of the increase in the money supply, taking into account deposits in foreign currency. With an increase in the total volume of this monetary aggregate by 1083.7 billion rubles. net foreign assets increased by 1,366.8 billion rubles, while domestic credit to the economy decreased by 204.6 billion rubles. (in 2010 - an increase of 717.2 and 1169.7 billion rubles and a reduction of 857.9 billion rubles, respectively).
For the period 2010-2011. The increase in the nominal effective exchange rate of the ruble played a significant role in reducing inflation. Last year, the nominal effective exchange rate appreciated by 3.2%. In the first five months of this year, it increased by another 1.5%. In early June, the Bank of Russia raised the ruble exchange rate against the dual-currency basket by about 0.6% more.
In order to absorb free liquidity, the Bank of Russia continued to carry out operations with its bonds in the quarter of 2011.
OBR was sold mainly at auctions. The largest investments in OBR (80.2 billion rubles) were made by credit institutions at the auction on June 15 (after the buyout of the third OBR issue under the offer), while the total volume of OBR sales at auctions in April-June 2011 amounted to 108.2 billion . rub. at market value. The weighted average yield formed at OBR auctions in April-June 2011 ranged from 4.53% to 5.20% per annum (in Q1 - from 4.60% to 5.14% per annum). According to daily quotations issued by the Bank of Russia, the volumes of purchases by OBR credit institutions in the secondary market significantly exceeded the volumes of their sales.
In 2011, the Bank of Russia also sold government bonds from its own portfolio without an obligation to repurchase in the amount of 0.43 billion rubles.
In general, from 2010-2011. the operations of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the open market contributed to a gradual increase in the liquidity of the OBR market and, as a result, to the expansion of the sterilization capabilities of the Bank of Russia.
The monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the period from 2010-2011 turned out to be relatively ineffective in its goal, which is clearly seen from Table 5.
Table 5 - Forecast and actual inflation indicators for 2010-2011
It should be noted that since 2010, the banking system has been receiving funds mainly through foreign exchange interventions, but their inflow was so large that the Central Bank had to sterilize part of these receipts, and mainly through operations on the open market.
In general, speaking about the effectiveness of monetary policy in Russia in the period from 2008-2011, we can say that it still remains at a low level, since the declared targets do not coincide with the actual results, but there are prospects.
As part of the forecasts of the IMF and other international organizations, which assume a slight increase in global economic growth in 2013, a moderate acceleration of economic growth in the countries that are Russia's main trading partners is possible, with a similar trend continuing in 2014-2015. According to the IMF forecast, the growth rate of production of goods and services in the world will increase from 3.5% in 2012 to 3.9% in 2013. In 2013, inflation is forecast to continue declining in foreign countries ah, including Russia's main trading partners. Its acceleration is not expected in 2014-2015 either.
The projected increase in business activity in the world will support the current level of consumption of oil and other Russian exports, which reduces the risks of a deterioration in the country's balance of payments.
Key interest rates in the leading economies will remain low in 2013, which will help create conditions for capital inflow into the Russian economy. The movement of cross-border capital flows will depend on the state of foreign financial systems and the conjuncture of the global financial market, the mood of global investors. Risks of capital outflow will remain.
The Bank of Russia considered three options for the conditions for conducting monetary policy in 2013-2015, one of which is in line with the forecast of the Government of the Russian Federation. Scenarios are based on different dynamics oil prices.
Under the first option, the Bank of Russia assumes a reduction in 2013 of the average annual price for Russian Urals oil on the world market to $73 per barrel. This is shown in Figure 6.
Figure 6 - Urals oil price (US dollars per barrel)
Under these conditions, in 2013 the real disposable money income of the population may decrease by 0.4%, investments in fixed assets - by 2.1%. The decline in GDP may be 0.4%.
As part of the second option, the forecast of the Government of the Russian Federation is considered, which is the basis for the development of parameters federal budget for 2013-2015. It is assumed that in 2013 the price of Russian oil may reach 97 US dollars per barrel.
This option reflects the development of the economy in the context of the implementation of active public policy aimed at improving the investment climate, increasing competitiveness and business efficiency, stimulating economic growth and modernization, as well as increasing the efficiency of budget spending. Under this option, in 2013 the increase in real disposable cash income population is projected at 3.7%. The volume of investments in fixed assets may increase by 7.2%. Under these conditions, the volume of GDP may increase by 3.7%.
Under the third option, the Bank of Russia assumes an increase in the price of Urals oil in 2013 to $121 per barrel.
In the context of increasing income from the export of Russian goods in 2013, an increase in investment activity is expected. The growth rate of investments in fixed assets may accelerate to 7.6%, and real disposable money income of the population - up to 4%. The increase in GDP is expected at the level of 4%.
In 2014-2015, the increase in GDP, depending on the forecast option, may be 2-5%.
The forecast of the balance of payments shown in the figure for 2013-2015 according to the second option is based on the assumption of an insignificant change in the price of Urals oil on the world market (from 97 to 104 US dollars per barrel). In the first and third options, oil prices are expected to deviate from the specified range by a quarter up and down.
Figure 7 - Forecast of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation for 2013-2015
In accordance with the scenario conditions for the functioning of the economy of the Russian Federation, the Government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia have set the task of reducing inflation in 2013 to 5-6%, in 2014 and 2015
Up to 4-5% (on the basis of December to December of the previous year). The specified target for inflation in the consumer market corresponds to core inflation at the level of 4.7-5.7% in 2013, 3.6-4.6% in 2014 and 2015.
Calculations under the monetary program for 2013-2015 were made on the basis of indicators of demand for money that correspond to inflation targets, the forecast dynamics of GDP and other macroeconomic indicators, as well as the balance of payments forecast and the parameters of the draft federal budget .
Depending on the forecast options, the growth rate of the M2 monetary aggregate in 2013 may be 9-18%, in 2014 and 2015 - 14-19% per year.
The Bank of Russia has developed three variants of the monetary program. The second version of the program is based on macroeconomic indicators used in the formation of the draft federal budget for 2013 and the planned period of 2014-2015. The growth rate of the monetary base in a narrow definition, corresponding to inflation targets and estimates of economic growth dynamics, can reach 7-14% annually in 2013, in 2014-2015, 11-14% in 2014-2015 .
The first version of the program assumes an increase in net credit to the enlarged government by 0.5 trillion. rubles in 2013, by 0.4 trillion. rubles - in 2014, by 0.3 trillion. rubles - in 2015. According to the calculations under the program, if this scenario is implemented in 2013-2015, the increase in net credit to banks may amount to 1.0-1.6 trillion. rubles per year due to the activation of the operations of the Bank of Russia to provide liquidity to the banking sector. Under these conditions, by the end of 2015, the volume of gross credit to banks may exceed 60% of the monetary base.
The second variant of the monetary program assumes moderate dynamics of world oil prices within the forecast period. In 2013, the increase in NIR, corresponding to the indicators of the forecast of the balance of payments, will amount to 0.6 trillion. rubles, in 2014 - 0.5 trillion. rubles, and in 2015 - 0.3 trillion. rubles.
Under the third option of the monetary program, based on the scenario of high oil prices, the projected increase in NIR in 2013 will be 2.9 trillion. rubles, in 2014 - 2.7 trillion. rubles, in 2015 - 2.4 trillion. rubles.
Under this scenario, in 2013 net credit to banks is expected to decrease by 0.2 trillion. rubles.
The main objectives of the exchange rate policy for 2013 and the period of 2014-2015 will be to further reduce the direct intervention of the Bank of Russia in the exchange rate mechanism and create conditions for the transition to a floating exchange rate regime by 2015.
In 2013 and 2014 The Bank of Russia will continue to implement its exchange rate policy without hindering the formation of trends in the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate due to the action of fundamental macroeconomic factors, and without setting any fixed restrictions on the level of the national currency exchange rate. At the same time, during this period, the Bank of Russia will increase exchange rate flexibility gradually, softening the process of market participants' adaptation to exchange rate fluctuations caused by external shocks .
After the transition to a floating exchange rate regime, the Bank of Russia intends to abandon the use of operational benchmarks of the exchange rate policy associated with the levels of the exchange rate. At the same time, even after the transition to this regime, the Bank of Russia admits the possibility of conducting interventions in the domestic foreign exchange market, the volume of which will be determined taking into account the situation on the money market.
The system of instruments will continue to take into account the peculiarities of interaction between the Bank of Russia and regional credit institutions, the characteristics of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the state of the Russian financial market.
The basis of the current system of monetary policy instruments - the interest rate corridor of the Bank of Russia will remain in the period under review, while the Bank of Russia will consider the possibility of narrowing it in order to increase the effectiveness of interest rate policy. Deposit operations and standing refinancing operations for a period of 1 day will be used as instruments that ensure that short-term interbank market rates are within the interest band.
The use of refinancing instruments for terms of more than 1 week will be aimed primarily at maintaining financial stability. In order to limit the impact of these operations on the corresponding segment of the market interest rate curve and prevent distortion of interest rate policy signals, the Bank of Russia will consider the advisability of switching to their implementation at a floating rate. In this case, the addition of swaps with foreign exchange and precious metals for a period of up to 1 year to expand the access of credit institutions to refinancing for these periods.
The Bank of Russia will also continue to use required reserve ratios as an instrument of monetary policy, making decisions to change them depending on the macroeconomic situation and the state of liquidity in the banking sector.
In addition to working on improving its own system of instruments, the Bank of Russia attaches great importance to interaction with government bodies on the implementation of monetary policy and the development of financial markets. Cooperation with the Ministry of Finance of Russia will be continued and Federal Treasury on the issue of developing a mechanism for placing temporarily free budget funds in the banking sector, the task of which is to minimize the seasonal impact of budgetary flows on the volume of liquidity in the banking sector .
The main goal of monetary policy within the framework of the financial stabilization program is to maintain low current inflation rates and create conditions for the growth of investments, ensuring favorable dynamics of the national currency exchange rate, contributing to the improvement of the balance of payments.
To achieve this goal, the efforts of the monetary authorities should be focused on solving the following tasks:
Limitation of the money supply to the volume necessary for the implementation of economic activity;
Optimization of the structure of the money supply and its distribution between sectors and subjects of the economy;
Preventing the outflow of capital abroad;
Maintaining foreign exchange reserves at a given level.
The solution of these problems requires the implementation of a set of measures listed below. In order to control inflation and maintain the dynamic stability of the national currency, it is necessary to limit the growth rate of the money supply and fluctuations in interest rates on loans and deposits to the economy. Operational regulation bank liquidity and interbank market rates will ensure the stability of settlements, reduce speculation in the money market. Limiting the growth of the national currency during periods of inflation, direct lending to the state budget deficit, a phased transfer of claims on the government for domestic debt into medium-term government securities and with a positive real interest rate that ensures their yield at the level of government securities should not be allowed.
Short-term lending for the cash gap in income and expenses state budget through the purchase of state short-term securities will create conditions for operational support of the state budget in market forms, and it is also necessary to establish a ceiling for the growth of the money supply and net domestic assets of the Central Bank in order to limit the growth of the money supply - this is a guaranteed limitation of inflation rates and the predictability of its change.
It is necessary to set the discount rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at a level not lower than the standard in force in neighboring countries; this, in the end, should lead to a decrease in inflation, an increase in investment activity, and stabilization of production.
Also, the most important tool for improving monetary policy should be the improvement of the system of refinancing commercial banks to stabilize the supply of money to the country's economy. This can be achieved through the following measures:
1) ensuring the creation of a corridor of base refinancing rates for banks on the basis of auction and pawn loans, which will make it possible to move from quantitative to price methods of regulating bank liquidity and reduce rates on loans to the economy;
2) improving the procedure for quick response to changes in the volume of bank liquidity and fluctuations in interbank market rates through open market operations will ensure fine tuning of the level of interbank market rates in a given corridor of base refinancing rates;
3) streamlining the procedures for providing a standby loan individual banks experiencing a short-term lack of liquidity, will ensure the stability of the banking system during liquidity crises in large banks that have an impact on the economy;
4) limiting the issue of short-term obligations of the Central Bank as the issue of government securities expands, will save public funds for the purpose of regulating the money market (300-400 billion rubles a year). And the last step
improvement should be the improvement of the system of reserve requirements for commercial banks;
5) differentiation of the mandatory reserve systems for bank deposits, aimed at increasing the share of long-term deposits as a resource for increasing investment activity in the country, will increase banking liquidity, stimulate the growth of long-term deposits and reduce the mass of "hot money", increase investment in the economy;
6) the implementation of a phased revision of the mandatory reserve norms towards their reduction as the inflation rate decreases and the demand for credit resources for long-term investments grows, this should result in a balance of business activity and money supply in the economy, increasing the mobility of money supply;
7) creation of a system for monitoring the situation in the money market and the capital market and, on this basis, the implementation of modeling and forecasting of financial flows in conjunction with the processes of the country's macroeconomic development, this contributes to an increase in efficiency state regulation money market.
In order to achieve the goals that the Central Bank has set for itself for 2013-2015, it is reasonable to use the measures described above.
The main conductor of monetary policy in the Russian Federation is the Bank of Russia, which currently most actively uses four main instruments of monetary policy: regulation of the volume of refinancing of commercial banks, changes in the required reserve ratios, open market operations and foreign exchange interventions. With the help of these tools, the Bank of Russia strives to fulfill the main goal of monetary policy - a smooth decline in inflation. The conducted analysis of monetary policy in Russia in the period from 2000-2006. showed an insufficient connection between the policy actually pursued by the Bank of Russia and the goals declared by it in program documents. The deviations of the declared targets from the actual results are too large to speak about the effectiveness of the monetary policy pursued.
The most important way to solve the problem of overcoming inflation in recent years has been the implementation of monetary policy, aimed primarily at limiting aggregate demand by measures designed to limit the possibility of providing loans to commercial banks and thereby have an impact on reducing the volume of effective demand. An active monetary policy has made it possible to achieve certain results in a smooth decline in inflation, however, the price of these successes is very high.
This is, first of all, a huge decline in production, one of the reasons for which is a decrease in effective demand. The ongoing monetary policy had an impact only on the sphere of circulation and did not provide for a direct positive impact on the sphere of production.
In this regard, it is necessary to turn to the use of credit as an important lever for the growth of production and supply of goods, which will help reduce inflation.
Insufficient lending activity of Russian banks makes monetary policy instruments ineffective. In this regard, the Bank of Russia needs to start using them, first of all, not to smoothly reduce inflation, but to increase the investment activity of commercial banks. But before that, the Bank of Russia should theoretically study the influence of each instrument on the regulation of the economic situation, and only then begin to use them in practice.
(mandatory)
Structural divisions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
Currently, the following structural divisions operate in the Central Bank of the Russian Federation:
Consolidated economic department. Department of Research and Information. Department of Cash Circulation
Department for Regulation, Management and Monitoring of the Payment System of the Bank of Russia
Settlement Regulation Department. Department accounting and reporting
Department of Licensing Activities and Financial Recovery of Credit Institutions. Department of Banking Supervision. Department of banking regulation. Financial Stability Department. Main inspection of credit institutions. Financial Market Operations Department
Department for ensuring and controlling operations in financial markets. Department of financial monitoring and currency control. Department of balance of payments
Department of Methodology and Organization of Service of Accounts of Budgets of the Budgetary System of the Russian Federation. Legal department. Department of Field Institutions. Department of Information Systems
Department of personnel policy and ensuring work with personnel. Finance Department. Internal Audit Department
Department of International Financial and Economic Relations. Department of External and Public Relations. Administrative department. Central Real Estate Department of the Bank of Russia
Central Department of Expertise and Planning of Capital Expenditures of the Bank of Russia. Main Directorate of Security and Information Protection
1 The Constitution of the Russian Federation was adopted by popular vote on December 12, 1993 (subject to amendments made by the Laws of the Russian Federation on amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation of December 30, 2008 N 6-FKZ and of December 30, 2008 N 7-FKZ) // "Collection of legislation of the Russian Federation ", 26.01.2009, N 4, Art. 75
2 Russian Federation. Laws. Federal Law On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation: [Federal Law: adopted by the State Duma on July 10, 2002] // Collected Legislation of the Russian Federation. -2001. N 86-FZ
3 Russian Federation. Laws. about banks and banking N 395-1 - Federal Law of December 2, 1990: feder. Law: [Adopted by State. Duma February 7, 1990: approved. Federation Council 21 1990]. -[ Electronic resource]. - Access mode: http: //www. consultant.ru
4 Russian Federation. Laws. Federal Law No. 39-FZ of April 22, 1996 "On the Securities Market" (as amended on December 6, 2007, as amended and supplemented on January 1, 2008) //
The evolution of the activities of central banks over the past 50 years requires close attention, it is necessary to constantly monitor institutional changes both in the internal environment and in the external one. Institutional factors play an important role in the study of the structure and operation of the central bank. At present, central banks have come to greater openness and there is an opportunity to analyze their activities.
Having studied the position and policy of central banks in industrialized countries, we can talk about a number of common features inherent in them. Similarities begin to emerge during the development of central banks in the post-war period: tendencies to keep inflation at a certain level, setting interest rates for decades. Siklos, Pierre L. The Changing Face of Central Banking: Evolutionary Trends since World War II. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003.
Also in the course of the analysis, it became clear that contradictions between central banks and governments of foreign states occurred constantly. The goals and policies of central banks, or both, remained debatable, and the autonomy of central banks remained an important issue. Economic activity has undoubtedly been a direct cause for any conflicts. This was especially acute during periods when the economy was under stress. But even if conflict situations were resolved, the main problem of their occurrence was the lack of clear objectives of monetary policy.
For the past 50 years, at least three "pressures" have been thought to be at work on monetary policy: political pressures associated with elections or covert changes in government; institutional pressure associated with the statutory functions that the central bank describes; state relations and international pressure that stem from political decisions abroad.
Thus, foreign central banks have largely responded to inflation and unemployment shocks by raising and lowering nominal interest rates. But changes in interest rates did not fundamentally change the situation, since there were still many other factors influencing monetary policy.
According to the American economist Siklos, general inflationary trends in different countries were considered in relation to such factors as changes in the exchange rate regime and the widespread introduction of inflation targeting in 1990. In addition, Siklos points out that "average inflation rates across countries are lower in the 1990s than in the 1960s while average nominal interest rates are, on average, higher in the 1990s than in the 1960s. This is not to say that monetary policy has become too tight, Siklos, Pierre L. The Changing Face of Central Banking: Evolutionary Trends since World War II, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003.
Difficulties with the reaction of central banks to changes in the country also arose due to the incomplete use of monetary policy instruments, such as exchange rate policy, as well as the rather slowly changing nature of the government's attitude towards the central bank.
The period from 1960 to 1990 is one of the experimental periods when various monetary policy regimes were applied in many countries. In general, the trend has been towards greater flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy within the limits, in order to meet the set goals and achieve positive economic results, for which central banks were responsible.
Thus, for the greater responsibility of central banks, it was established that they should keep records and disclose information about their activities. This was a key contribution to creating favorable conditions for the development of the monetary policy of central banks.
Thus, monetary policy was the most flexible instrument of economic policy of the governments of various countries, as well as the most powerful one. However, once World War II ended, the experience of the 1920s and 1930s showed a deep distrust of monetary policy, but rather of central banks themselves. Many governments sought stability after decades of fluctuations in prices and other macroeconomic indicators. But there was no coordination in politics. While fiscal policy dominated as the main policy instrument, a new view was put forward that the central bank should take center stage in the implementation of economic policy, since fiscal policy was not proactive in its decisions and actions, and also failed to achieve assigned tasks.
The monetary policy of the Bank of Russia has consistently acquired features characteristic of the policy of the central banks of the countries of the world community, whose economies are developing according to market laws.
As for the current state and changes in monetary policy in the context of financial globalization, which is one of the most important components of the process of globalization of the world economy, it has a significant impact on the development of the national economy and the conduct of national monetary policy. John B. Taylor Implications of Globalization for Monetary Policy. Stanford University. 2006.
Financial globalization has created new challenges for national monetary policy, limiting the space for its independent implementation. Financial globalization is reflected in the emergence of new trends: the emergence of speculative "bubbles", the growth of cross-border flows and financial innovations, disintermediation, untimely reaction of central banks to ongoing changes in the economy, changes within the system of financial intermediaries, multicurrency, changes in the state of the economy. Nazarenko Julia. Impact of globalization on monetary policy in Europe//Relevant issues of development of the world economy. September 2011
First, the growth of cross-border capital flows increases the risks of speculative "bubbles" in asset markets and the scale of their negative consequences. Vivid examples are a series of financial crises in the largest emerging markets from 1994 to 2001 in Mexico, Southeast Asia, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, Argentina; the decline in the stock markets of developed countries in 2001-2003; the recent mortgage crisis in 2007 in the United States, which led to turmoil in global financial markets. Golovnin M.Yu. Financial globalization and restrictions of the national monetary policy//Voprosy ekonomiki №7.2007.
The state of modern financial markets, characterized as metastability (potential instability), determines the predisposition to shocks. The lack of transparency in the application of many market-based instruments has increased the overall risks. Financial institutions did not neutralize the emerging imbalances, but accumulated, strengthened them, transmitted them to the real sector, and, in the end, the risks became systemic. Kryuchkova I.P. Globalization: Risks and Challenges for Monetary Policy // Banking. 2011. No. 7.
Secondly, as a result of globalization processes, under the influence of the growth of financial innovations, the functioning of national financial markets is changing, the uncertainty of the impact of measures taken by the central bank on macroeconomic variables increases.
Globalization has changed world markets, strengthened their interconnections, and the lack of mechanisms for effective monitoring and prevention of systemic risks has become a catalyst for the global financial crisis. It is systemic risks that increase the instability of the global financial system and force central banks and governments of developed and developing countries take steps to prevent them and maintain stability. Kryuchkova I.P. Globalization: Risks and Challenges for Monetary Policy // Banking. 2011. No. 7.
Jean-Claude Trichet, Chairman of the Board of the European Central Bank, noted that the key factors in the formation of such risks were the opacity of financial structures, vulnerability to "contagion" of the domino effect and procyclicality, which acts as a trend enhancer. Jean Claude Trichet. Risk and monetary policy//BIS Review. 2010. No. 29 The need for financial resources increases and decreases in the wake of the phases of the economic cycle. However, the supply of these funds does not simply reflect demand, but often reinforces the cycle.
Thirdly, the decrease in the difference in interest rates between countries leads to a change within the system of financial intermediaries, and institutional investors begin to play an increasingly important role. Okina K., Shirakawa M., Shiratsuka S. Financial Market Globalization: Present and Future // Monetary and Economic Studies. 1999.December. P.6.
Fourth, central banks have in practice responded to large changes in financial asset prices ex post by bailing out financial institutions that are bearing significant costs as a result of stock market downturns. Either there is an incorrect assessment of risks or not fully assessed the consequences of shocks for the financial system, not entirely correct conclusions about the rules for the functioning of modern markets and their self-regulation in a changed global world. Thus, in the context of globalization, national sovereignty in the field of monetary policy is partially lost. Lebedev A.E. Financial globalization: general characteristics and challenges for Russia. M.: IMPEPI RAN, 2003. P. 18. In order for it not to be completely lost, it is necessary to take into account the impact on the national economy of the dynamics and global financial markets in order to build theoretical models for the functioning of the monetary sphere and its regulation in the new conditions.
Fifth, in the context of globalization, important qualitative changes are also taking place within the system of financial intermediaries: the importance of investment banks and institutional investors is growing in the financial markets themselves. These groups of financial intermediaries actually connect economic agents around the world, while traditional commercial banks are expanding globally to a much lesser extent. Golovnin M.Yu. New challenges to monetary policy in the context of globalization: financial crises // International economics. 2009. № 6.
Sixth, multicurrency is noted as one of the problems for the national monetary policy. Multicurrency refers to the absence of a single world currency and a unified monetary policy and the instability and instability inherent in the exchange rates of leading currencies in a liberalized global economy, and for other countries, the dependence of the stability of their currencies on international competitiveness and the monetary policy of countries with "freely usable currencies". ".
Seventh, according to foreign economist S. Mishkin, the growing integration of global products, labor and financial markets significantly change the state of the economy, which complicates the activity of monetary policy to stabilize monetary circulation. Frederic S Mishkin. Globalization, macroeconomic, performance, and monetary policy. // National bureau of economic research. April 2008 (www.nber.org/papers/w13948)
Having considered the impact of globalization on monetary policy, foreign economist Sutherland A. concluded that although financial globalization affects and changes the external environment within which monetary policy operates, it cannot change the main objectives of optimal monetary policy. Alan Sutherland. Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy// International Monetary Fund. 2007.
Modern theoretical studies of the impact of financial globalization on monetary policy are mainly focused on the issues of its impact on inflation rates within the country and on the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy. The general conclusion of most researchers is that globalization and global trends in the conduct of monetary policy have rather a downward effect on the world inflation rate (this pattern is largely empirical in nature, and its stability still needs to be confirmed) and contributes to the equalization of interest rates. between countries, which limits the ability of monetary policy to influence the state of the economy through this tool.
To improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in the country, it is necessary to solve a number of preliminary tasks:
Meanwhile, it seems important that monetary policy be guided by tracking a number of macroeconomic indicators, including, along with inflation rates, exchange rate dynamics, cross-border capital flows, and economic growth rates, not allowing them to deviate significantly from critical values. Such a regime can be conditionally characterized as limited discretionary monetary policy.
In addition, in the longer term, projects related to the expansion of its role in international monetary and financial relations can help increase the effectiveness of Russia's participation in the processes of financial globalization. This is primarily about the projects of the international financial center and giving the ruble the status of a regional currency.
It is also necessary to abandon obviously unattainable goals, such as the creation of a single currency or a single market. financial services modeled after the euro area and the EU. Monetary and financial interaction can be aimed at solving specific problems: harmonization of monetary policy regimes; facilitating the regulation of the dynamics of exchange rates, including currency swap operations; formation of separate segments of the regional financial market (for example, the market for government or corporate bonds) by removing restrictions that prevent this and harmonizing regulatory norms.
Summing up, we can say that in the current conditions of globalization of the entire economy as a whole, a qualitatively new paradigm of monetary policy is needed, since the results of national monetary policy are becoming less predictable; the degree of predictability of the very environment of its implementation is reduced; national monetary policy faces limitations both in terms of goals and instruments available for its implementation; the degree of responsibility for an insufficiently thought-out monetary policy is increasing, which can lead to an outflow of capital from the country, a financial and economic crisis.
Students, graduate students, young scientists who use the knowledge base in their studies and work will be very grateful to you.
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COURSE WORK
Influence of money-crepolicy on the economy of the Russian Federation
Introduction
The theme of this work is "The impact of monetary policy on the economy of the Russian Federation."
The purpose of the work: improving the impact of monetary policy on the economy of the Russian Federation.
The importance of studying this problem lies in the fact that monetary policy occupies a decisive place in the economic policy of the state. And the process of evolution of the Russian banking system is presented as a gradual restructuring of the monetary policy tools of the Bank of Russia. Obviously, the composition of tools and methods (this is the meaning we put into the concept of tools) should ensure an effective interest rate policy in the future and, through the interbank credit market, influence processes in the non-financial sector of the economy. Modern trends in world economic development and a new stage in the functioning of the Russian economy have necessitated a revision theoretical foundations and practical methods of conducting monetary policy. Monetary policy is a set of measures in the field of monetary circulation and loans aimed at regulating economic growth, curbing inflation, providing employment and equalizing the balance of payments.
Russia has already developed a credit system that is different from the two world models: American and German. There are universal banks in the country (this is how it differs from the American model), as well as a fairly developed sector of specialized credit institutions (this is how it differs from the German model).
It should be noted that the Russian banking system is weakly fulfilling its second main function- lending. As a result, due to the high cost of lending, half of Russian industrial enterprises do not resort to bank loans. Under the current conditions, the issue of restructuring the banking system is acute. In particular, as part of the preparation by the Bank of Russia of the Concept for the Development of the Banking System, it is proposed to adopt the Law “On the Insolvency (Bankruptcy) of Credit Institutions” and the Law “On the Restructuring of Credit Institutions”, as well as ensuring the efficient operation of the Agency for the Restructuring of Credit Institutions (ARCO).
The main carriers of modern monetary policy are: the Central Bank of the country and the Ministry of Finance; the largest commercial banks performing a backbone role in the national banking sector; association of commercial banks; analytical and scientific centers of the national banking system.
Thus, monetary policy is very important for any state, especially today, when the main function of the state is to provide the market economy with a sufficient amount of cash. It is also worth noting that the general state of the economy to a greater extent depends on the state of the monetary and credit sphere. Suffice it to say that from 75 to 90% of the money supply in most countries is bank deposits and only 10 - 25% of the central bank notes. It should not be noted that the views on the regulation of the monetary and credit sphere have changed repeatedly for a long time. The number and quality of state measures regulating monetary circulation increased.
Thus, in this work it is necessary to identify the most relevant and most effective tools for regulating the monetary sphere, which must be used to achieve the main goal of monetary policy.
The objectives of this course work:
Determine the essence of monetary policy
Consider the factors influencing the formation of monetary policy
Reveal the features of monetary policy
Analyze the mechanism of influence of monetary policy on the economy of the Russian Federation
Consider the current state of the state monetary policy of the Russian Federation
To identify problems arising as a result of the influence of monetary policy on the economy of the Russian Federation
Explore the prospects for improving monetary policy in the Russian economy
Assess the effectiveness of the impact of monetary policy on the economy of the Russian Federation
In this work, articles from journals such as: "Economic Issues", "Finance and Credit", "Money and Credit", "Economics", "Economic Science of Modern Russia", as well as economic dictionaries were used. This literature allows you to more accurately analyze the impact of monetary policy on the economy of the Russian Federation, as well as solve the main tasks of the course work.
1. Theoretical aspects of determining the essence of monetary policy
1.1 The essence of monetary policy
credit economy monetary
From the point of view of economic theory, monetary policy is a set of government measures in the field of money circulation and loans. From the position of finance, monetary policy is a set of interrelated measures taken by the central bank in order to regulate aggregate demand through a planned impact on the state of the loan and money circulation.
Monetary policy in the economic literature is most often defined as the policy of the central bank that affects the amount of money in circulation. According to the comments to the federal law "On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)", monetary policy is defined as the main part of the unified state economic policy, manifested in the impact on the amount of money in circulation in order to achieve price stability, ensure the maximum possible employment population and growth in real output. A more accurate interpretation of this category is carried out by Simanovsky A.Yu. Monetary policy is defined by him as "the management of the money supply or the creation of conditions for access to economic entities to loans and (or) at an interest rate corresponding to certain economic goals". Unlike the first definition, the second one emphasizes the possibility of the influence of monetary policy not only on the sphere of circulation, but also on the sphere of production.
The objectives of monetary policy are divided into two groups.
The first group includes economic goals aimed at maintaining economic activity and reducing unemployment:
Regulation of economic growth rates;
Increase GDP;
Mitigation of cyclical fluctuations in the market of goods, capital and labor;
Curbing inflation;
Stimulating the growth of the volume of monetary operations;
Achieving a balanced balance of payments and others.
The second group, respectively, includes social tasks:
Raise the standard of living of the population;
Make various services more accessible and others.
Monetary policy is closely linked to domestic political and economic relations, especially inflation and economic growth. Moreover, it is used not as a separate element of economic regulation, but in conjunction with such instruments as financial policy, income policy, and others. Credit performs primarily redistributive function. With its help, free money capital and incomes of enterprises, households, and the state are accumulated and converted into loan capital, which is transferred for a fee (in the form of interest) for temporary use. Through credit facility loan capital is redistributed on the basis of repayment between sectors of the economy, rushing to those areas that provide greater profits or are given preference in accordance with national programs for the development of the economy.
Yeroshin believes that monetary policy is the course of the state in the sphere of monetary circulation and credit relations.
Monetary regulation is: a) one of the functions of managing the state's economy in an indirect form of its manifestation and is a targeted impact of the state with the help of a special regulatory mechanism on the sphere of monetary circulation and credit relations; b) one of the subsystems for ensuring the implementation of the state course in the economy by monetary methods.
The monetary mechanism is a set of forms, methods, tools and levers of monetary regulation.
Let's compare the goals of monetary policy with the main elements of the system economic security. To do this, first of all, we will identify what threats to the economic security of the state are taken into account when determining the goal of monetary policy. As a rule, the central bank of the state is responsible for setting the goals of monetary policy. These goals are reflected in the relevant regulatory and legislative acts. But price stability is an indisputable goal. At the same time, the desire to maintain price stability is parallel to the desire to ensure full employment and real GDP growth. It should be noted that some economists consider incorrect monetary policy as the main threat to economic development, considering it to be the main cause of economic crises.
This necessitates the introduction of such regulatory mechanisms that can mitigate the negative effects of monetary policy.
1.2 Factors influencing the formation of monetary policy
World experience shows that the main factors determining the formation and implementation of monetary policy include, first of all: the macroeconomic conditions for its implementation; external economic factors; social and economic policy of the country; structural changes in the economy; condition public sector; information uncertainty; state and liberalization of the financial market, its globalization.
When evaluating the effectiveness of monetary policy, one should also take into account the factors that determine its formation and implementation. We propose to systematize them as follows.
Rice. 1. Factors affecting the effectiveness of the formation and implementation of monetary policy
One of critical factors, influencing the monetary policy is the macroeconomic situation in the country, which is confirmed by the experts of the Bank for International Settlements.
Fluctuations in lending and investment, asset prices have become a serious source of macroeconomic instability, both in developing and industrialized countries. As a result, financial crises and existing macroeconomic consequences have become more frequent and deep.
The next factor influencing the implementation of monetary policy is the goals of socio-economic development, which may conflict with the immediate objectives of monetary policy. Often the emergence of such a dilemma between the targets of the economic policy of the state and monetary policy occurs in conditions of crisis processes and social upheavals.
Monetary policy is being carried out in conditions where it is simultaneously required to ensure an increase in the standard of living of the population and structural modernization of the economy. This determines the main limitation - monetary policy must be carried out taking into account the trade-off between consumption and investment. In addition, additional resources are required to pay off the external debt and ensure the country's security, as well as to solve a set of social problems. Significant regulation of prices and tariffs on the consumer price index reduces the effectiveness of using money supply indicators as an intermediate benchmark for monetary policy.
External economic factors that determine monetary policy are mainly related to the uncertainty in the dynamics of world prices for energy resources, which form the basis of Russian exports. A significant decrease in these prices entails a reduction in the trade balance and a decrease in the inflow of foreign currency.
High prices for Russian exports have long been a fundamental factor in the managed floating exchange rate regime, under which the Bank of Russia actively counteracted excessive ruble appreciation by intervening in the domestic foreign exchange market. The change in the terms of trade led to a decrease in the imbalance between supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, the weakening of the ruble and the reduction in the need for the presence of the Bank of Russia on it.
The most important internal factor that influences the implementation of the monetary policy is the change in the principles of formation of the state budget (budget policy):
Planning and approval of the federal budget for a three-year period in the form of a law;
Distribution of revenues (oil and gas and non-oil and gas revenues) with determination of the size of the oil and gas transfer allocated to federal budget expenditures and reserve fund and the National Welfare Fund.
An internal factor that indirectly affects monetary policy is the degree of confidence in the central bank as the body responsible for its implementation. A central bank with low public confidence is forced to pursue a more restrictive monetary policy. Abrupt changes in the central bank's interest rate can be understood by the public as evidence of its errors in economic development forecasts and the inconsistency of monetary policy. This may lead to a loss of confidence in the central bank and reduce the effectiveness of its monetary policy.
Therefore, the central bank should not make adjustments to interest rate policy too often and only when it has sufficient information and a reasonable forecast about current and upcoming macroeconomic shocks.
1.3 The mechanism of influence of monetary policy on the economy
The mechanism of influence of monetary policy on the state of the economy is rather complicated. Therefore, in the process of making decisions regarding monetary policy, central banks consider three groups of indicators: ultimate goals, determined by global macroeconomic indicators; intermediate (operational) goals or benchmarks, as well as methods and tools, which are a set of measures to achieve the goals.
The ultimate goals of monetary policy are directly related to the objectives of economic policy as a whole and represent the maintenance of price stability, the value of the national currency in the domestic and foreign markets, and containment of inflationary processes.
From the point of view of goals, two main types (directions) of monetary policy are distinguished: monetary restriction and monetary expansion.
Restrictive monetary policy is aimed at limiting monetary emission, i.e. to a reduction in the money supply in circulation. This is the so-called dear money policy, which is usually carried out during periods of high inflation.
Expansionary monetary policy is accompanied by an expansion of monetary emission, i.e. an increase in the money supply in circulation. This is the so-called cheap money policy; it is usually carried out during periods of economic recession in order to provide conditions for expanding lending to enterprises and stimulating investment activity. Through credit expansion, central banks pursue the goal of raising production and revitalizing the conjuncture; with the help of credit restrictions, they are trying to prevent the “overheating” of the conjuncture, observed during periods of economic upswing, and to limit inflationary processes.
Thus, situations where a decline in production is accompanied by intense inflationary processes are of particular difficulty for monetary authorities. This situation, which in the economic literature is called stagflation (from “stagnation” plus “inflation”), requires the regulators to choose a system of interrelated instruments of monetary, financial and other areas of economic regulation and clear interaction in the conduct of economic policy in all its aspects.
There are four links in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy:
Change in the value of the real money supply (M / p) S as a result of the revision of the relevant policy by the central bank;
Changes in the interest rate in the money market;
The reaction of total costs (especially investment) to the dynamics of the interest rate;
Change in the volume of emission in response to a change in aggregate demand (total costs).
Between the change in the money supply and the reaction of the aggregate supply, there are two more intermediate stages, the passage through which significantly affects the final result.
A change in the market interest rate occurs by changing the structure of the asset portfolio of economic agents after, as a result of, say, the expansionary monetary policy of the central bank, they have more money than they need. The consequence, as you know, will be the purchase of other types of assets, cheaper loans, i.e. The result is a reduction in interest rates.
However, the reaction of the money market depends on the nature of the demand for money. If the demand for money is sufficiently sensitive to changes in the interest rate, then the result of an increase in the monetary aggregate will be a slight change in the rate. Conversely, if the demand for money reacts poorly to the interest rate, then an increase in the money supply will lead to a significant drop in the rate.
Obviously, disruptions in any link of the transmission mechanism can lead to a decrease or even the absence of any results of monetary policy. For example, insignificant changes in the interest rate in the money market or the lack of reaction of aggregate demand components to the rate dynamics break the link between fluctuations in the money supply aggregate and the volume of money supply. These violations in the operation of the monetary policy transmission mechanism are especially pronounced in countries with economies in transition, when, for example, the investment activity of economic agents is associated not so much with the interest rate in the money market, but with the general economic situation and investors' expectations.
In the context of public administration, it would be more acceptable to perceive politics in the form of a certain state course or general line of the state. Management of the economy should be understood as a conscious purposeful impact on it by government institutions.
In this case, it is logical to name what functions the control contains. BUT economic mechanism is a set of forms, methods, levers and tools by which the economy is managed. Depending on the management model, some functions will have higher priority. Thus, in the conditions of an administrative-command economy, the planning function is a priority, and in a market economy, regulation. It should be taken into account that the process of implementing each of the functions involves the formation of its own control system (subsystem) and the manifestation of elements of other functions. For example, the regulation function can be interfaced with all control functions.
2. The current state of monetary policy inRussian economy
2.1 Assessment of the current statestate monetary policy of the Russian Federation
Monetary policy is integral part economic policy of the state, the main strategic goals of which are to improve the welfare of the population and ensure maximum employment. Based on this long-term strategy, the main guidelines for the government's macroeconomic policy are usually to ensure GDP growth and reduce inflation.
Its ultimate goals are formulated in accordance with the goals of macroeconomic policy adopted for the current year.
The main direction of monetary policy as an integral part of the modern economic policy of Russia is the gradual reduction of inflation and maintaining it at a certain level.
Ideally, monetary policy is designed to ensure price stability, full employment and economic growth - these are its highest and ultimate goals. However, in practice, with its help, it is also necessary to solve narrower tasks that meet the urgent needs of the country's economy.
We must not forget that monetary policy is an extremely powerful and therefore extremely dangerous tool. With its help, it is possible to get out of the crisis, but a sad alternative is not ruled out - the aggravation of the negative trends that have developed in the economy. Only very balanced decisions made at the highest level after a serious analysis of the situation, consideration of alternative ways of influencing monetary policy on the economy of the state, will give positive results. The central emission bank of the state acts as a conductor of monetary policy. Without the correct monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank, the economy cannot function effectively.
The Bank of Russia has prepared a draft unified state monetary policy for the next three years, the priority goal of which will be to maintain the planned inflation rate of 4.5 percent in 2014 and 2015 and 4 percent in 2016. In addition, the Bank of Russia intends to continue increasing exchange rate flexibility, including by reducing the volume of interventions, and by 2015 complete the transition to a floating exchange rate regime.
The Bank of Russia will use the key rate as the main indicator of the monetary policy direction. At the same time, by January 1, 2016, the Bank of Russia will adjust the refinancing rate to the level of the key rate. Until that date, the refinancing rate will be of secondary importance. In carrying out operations to regulate the liquidity of the banking sector, the Bank of Russia will strive to maintain overnight money market rates at the level of the key rate. At the same time, interbank lending should play the main role in the redistribution of liquidity among market participants.
In order to create conditions for a more active redistribution of funds in the interbank market and improve the efficiency of managing their own liquidity by credit institutions, starting from February 1, 2014, the Bank of Russia will stop holding REPO auctions on a daily basis for a period of 1 day and will use REPO operations on an auction basis for terms from 1 to 6 days as a "fine tuning" tool.
Should it become necessary to compensate for the effects of sudden changes in the banking sector's liquidity level due to the action of autonomous factors or changes in credit institutions' demand for liquidity, the Bank of Russia will promptly decide to conduct these operations. It should also be noted that the draft prepared by the Bank of Russia considers 4 options for conducting monetary policy. The options differ in expected external conditions in 2014:
· taking into account the preservation of the average annual oil price at a level close to 2013: option II (b) - investment growth - 3.9 percent, increase in GDP up to 2.8 percent; option II(a) - increase in investments - 3.0 percent, increase in GDP - 2.0 percent.
The prerequisites for external conditions included in the forecast differ between the options. Options II(a) and II(b) assume a gradual improvement in the situation in the global economy and the maintenance of the average annual oil price at a level close to the level of 2013. Options I and III provide for an upward and downward deviation of the average annual oil price by $25 in the context of a slower and faster global economic recovery, respectively.
With regard to internal conditions, it is assumed that the structural reforms outlined by the Government of the Russian Federation will be implemented (it is expected that the announced reforms will be consolidated by the relevant regulatory legal acts and decisions). At the same time, option II(b) proceeds from the premise of a relatively rapid improvement in the business climate and an increase in the competitiveness of the Russian economy, while the Bank of Russia options assume that the impact of structural reforms on the economy will be more extended over time and will not lead to a significant increase in investment activity of the private sector in the three-year period under review. All options take into account the change in the order of indexation of regulated tariffs for goods and services of infrastructure companies: indexation of tariffs for the population in 2014-2016 based on the inflation rate of the previous year with a reduction factor of 0.7; invariance in 2014 and indexation at the level of inflation of the previous year in 2015 and 2016 of tariffs for other categories of consumers.
Relatively budget policy in all options, it is assumed that it will be held in 2014-2016 within the framework of existing budget rules. The forecasts of the Bank of Russia for the main macroeconomic parameters also take into account the impact on domestic conditions from the ongoing monetary policy aimed at achieving inflation targets.
In 2014, the Bank of Russia will continue to pursue an exchange rate policy that does not prevent the formation of trends in the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate due to the action of fundamental macroeconomic factors, without setting any fixed restrictions on the level of the national currency exchange rate. At the same time, during this period, the Bank of Russia will gradually increase the exchange rate flexibility, including by reducing the volume of Bank of Russia interventions aimed at smoothing fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, as well as increasing the sensitivity of the boundaries of the operating interval to the volume of interventions made by the Bank of Russia, thereby creating conditions for market participants to adapt to exchange rate fluctuations caused by external shocks.
By 2014, the Bank of Russia plans to modify the exchange rate policy mechanism, in accordance with which the volume of foreign exchange interventions aimed at smoothing out excessive volatility of the ruble exchange rate will be adjusted by an amount determined taking into account the movement of funds of sovereign funds and the action of factors that form the liquidity of the banking sector. The planned changes will be implemented as part of the work to gradually increase the flexibility of the exchange rate and reduce the presence of the Bank of Russia in the domestic foreign exchange market.
In 2014, work will be completed to create the conditions for the transition to a floating exchange rate regime, which implies the abandonment of the use of operational exchange rate policy targets related to the level of the exchange rate, which will allow the Bank of Russia to concentrate on managing market interest rates to achieve the inflation target. At the same time, the Bank of Russia will continue to carry out operations in the domestic foreign exchange market as part of solving the tasks of regulating the level of liquidity in the banking sector. This practice does not contradict the concept of a floating exchange rate regime and is successfully used by developed countries that have sovereign funds. In addition, this regime does not preclude targeted foreign exchange interventions in order to maintain financial stability in the event of shock events. In the context of increased exchange rate flexibility exchange rate ruble will be formed under the influence of predominantly market factors, including cross-border capital flows, subject to sharp and difficult to predict fluctuations following changes in the mood of financial market participants . This will result in an increase in the uncertainty of the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in the medium term, which will necessitate further development of the market for derivative financial instruments to manage exchange rate risk by economic agents both in the real and financial sectors.
At the same time, the provision of price stability by the Bank of Russia will support the purchasing power of the ruble, which will increase the confidence of economic agents in the national currency and will contribute to its depreciation.
The Bank of Russia will attach great importance to explaining to financial market participants the current operating procedure, as well as the specifics of applying monetary policy instruments. .
2.2 Analysis of the impact of monetary policy on the economy of the Russian Federation
The implementation of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the conditions of instability and variability of the external and internal conditions of the country's economy inevitably faces a number of problems.
First, the very assessment of the state of economic development (which is necessary for the Central Bank to take the most rational measures) is a difficult problem.
Secondly, regulation within the framework of the national economy becomes more complicated due to the influence of external economic processes. The result is that the target orientation of the measures taken can be distorted. When regulating, the Central Bank must take into account not only the interconnections within the world economy, but also the interdependence of the links of the national economy.
The instability of the Russian economy leads to the instability of supply and demand in the credit market, revealing positive and negative sides lending methods National economy. Thus, the relevance of a loan secured by valuables is falling due to the collateral value, the frequent impossibility of a quick sale of collateral, etc.
In addition, the sphere of functioning of the credit market involves the receipt of considerable income by its participants. Therefore, given market mechanism attractive for various kinds of fraud.
It should also be noted the need to develop legislative support consumer lending as an indirect source of lending to the real sector of the economy, which has recently been developing at the highest rates.
Recently, the problem of shortage of cash and non-cash funds has become aggravated in Russia, which manifests itself in the low ratio of the money supply to GNP / GDP. This indicator is called the monetization coefficient. In Russia, this indicator remains quite high in 2014: 16-17% (according to the Bank of Russia). This indicator indicates that the country has a low level of cash saturation of economic turnover and the largest shortage of money, both in cash and non-cash circulation.
The shortage of money supply in circulation and the persistently high state spending lead to an increase in the share of the country's monetary resources allocated to cover budget expenditures.
In addition, the cash turnover in the country is increasing in terms of cost structure. The reasons for the growth of cash turnover are manifold. These include: The economic crisis; Crisis of non-payments; Cash crisis; Poor organization of the system of interbank settlements; Calculation slowdown.
Deliberate reduction of profits and incomes of enterprises in order to evade taxes and expand cash payments outside the banking system.
A sharp increase in cash turnover leads to an increase in the costs of the state for the circulation, transportation, storage of cash, as well as the replacement of worn-out banknotes.
Performing settlement and cash transactions, the banks of the Russian Federation regulate the volume of cash money supply and its circulation. In conditions of limited resources, many commercial banks cannot fully provide cash and non-cash services to the population and legal entities, which leads to a loss of profit from these operations.
The money market for cash is also characterized by increased risk: forgery of banknotes, computational errors of cash services, a significant amount cash transactions etc. Such risks lead to disruption of settlement and cash operations in credit institutions and reduce the efficiency of these operations.
Another negative factor is that the velocity of money tends to change in the opposite direction to the supply of money, thereby slowing down or eliminating changes in the money supply caused by politics, that is, when the supply of money is limited, the velocity of money tends to increase. Conversely, when policy measures are taken to increase the money supply during a recession, the velocity of money is very likely to fall.
In addition, one of the main problems of the money market in any country is inflation. Especially negative factors of inflation are manifested in the depreciation of capital in cash and non-cash forms, in the fall in purchasing power, in the ruin of uncompetitive enterprises, in general economic crisis. The turnover of cash and non-cash funds is always associated with the risk of not getting the expected amount of return both for the state as a whole and for an individual subject. Inflation deprives the Central Bank of effectively conducting monetary policy in the country.
The Central Bank of any state regulates the circulation of money not directly, but through the monetary and credit systems. Influencing credit institutions (banks), he creates certain conditions for their work. To a certain extent, the direction of the activities of commercial banks and other financial institutions depends on these conditions, which influences the course of the country's economic development.
By implementing monetary policy, influencing the lending activities of commercial banks and directing regulation to expand or reduce lending to the economy, the central bank achieves sustainable development internal economy, strengthening monetary circulation, balancing internal economic processes. Thus, the impact on credit makes it possible to achieve deeper strategic objectives for the development of the entire economy as a whole. On the other hand, excess money supply has its drawbacks: the depreciation of money, and, as a result, the decline in the living standards of the population, the deterioration of the monetary situation in the country. Accordingly, in the first case, monetary policy should be aimed at expanding lending activities banks, and in the second case - to reduce it, the transition to the policy of "expensive money" (restriction).
3. Main Directions for Improving Monetary Policy in order to Improve the Economic Condition of the Russian Federation
3.1 Monetary policy as a direction forimprovement of monetary policy in the economy of the Russian Federation
The improvement of the monetary sphere of the Russian economy is carried out with the help of joint actions of the Central Bank and the state. The purpose of the monetary policy of the Central Bank in the monetary sphere is to create conditions in the money market for the economy to constantly have such a mass of money and loans that is necessary for development, and thereby provide the country with a growing number of goods, services, workers. places. To compensate for the loss of purchasing power, lenders must add a certain percentage (corresponding to the rate of inflation) to the rates they would otherwise charge. Therefore, if the growth of inflation is due to the growth of the money supply, it can actually lead to an increase in interest rates.
In the general form monetary policy can be defined as the management of the money supply or the creation of conditions for the access of economic entities to loans in volumes and (or) at an interest rate corresponding to certain economic goals. The components of monetary policy are: monetary (in the narrow sense) policy, as a policy of regulating the amount of money in circulation (money supply); interest rate policy - the policy of regulating the general level of interest rates in the economy; exchange rate policy (currency policy in the narrow sense) - the policy of regulating the level and dynamics of the exchange rate of the national currency against foreign ones (so far, mainly against the US dollar). Raising the issue of activating monetary policy in order to stimulate economic growth makes it necessary to determine the limits and consequences of the possible impact of such activization on the economy, primarily on the dynamics of production and price growth.
It is advisable to analyze the potential impact of monetary policy on the dynamics of production at the micro level (enterprise level).
To conduct monetary policy, the reserve system of the Russian Federation has four main tools:
change in the level of reserve requirements;
· Changes in the interest rates that banks must pay when they borrow from a central institution (discount rate). In general, it is believed that the impact of the interest rate on the economy leads to an increase in economic growth. Thus, a reduction in the average rate by 1% gives an increase in the annual economic growth of the country by 1/3 percent;
purchase and sale of government securities (open market operations);
· definition of conditions for various types of loans (selective credit control).
In addition, to create optimal conditions for the development of the money market in Russia, it is necessary to:
Improving the legislative framework in the field of monetary policy;
Decreased dollarization of Russian money circulation;
Strengthening incentives for investment activity;
Perfection tax system;
Reducing inflation and pursuing a price containment policy;
Introduction and improvement of electronic money circulation;
Development and application of a wide range of forms of non-cash circulation;
Strengthening control over the legality of cash and non-cash transactions to prevent possible illegal actions and others.
To increase the speed and efficiency of cash and non-cash turnover, it is very important to develop a mechanism for providing guarantees. Currently, this is the provision of state guarantees. However, only state guarantees cannot fully meet the needs of commercial structures in guarantees. Thus, the improvement of the money market situation in Russia will lead to the strengthening of the national monetary unit and stabilization monetary system in general, which, in turn, will have a positive impact on the entire range of economic processes in the country.
3.2 Bank refinancing
Refinancing is one of the most important monetary policy instruments used by central banks.
Refinancing is the provision of loans by the central bank to commercial banks when they have exhausted their resources and are unable to replenish them from other sources (for example, in the interbank credit market or the securities market) on acceptable terms.
Refinancing loans are issued, as a rule, only to stable banks experiencing temporary liquidity difficulties. By refinancing banks, the Central Bank performs both the function of implementing monetary policy and the function of a lender of last resort or a bank of banks. At the same time, when issuing loans, as a lender of last resort, the Central Bank sets interest rates, which can be, in fact, penal in nature and be higher than market rates.
Refinancing loans are classified according to:
§ availability and forms of collateral (accounting, pawnshop, without collateral);
§ methods of provision (direct loans and loans provided through auctions);
§ terms of provision (as a rule, short-term and medium-term);
§ target nature (for example, target, settlement).
As a rule, in developed countries refinancing by central banks of credit institutions is carried out against collateral (on the security of securities or by rediscounting bills of exchange), however, during periods of financial and economic crises, unsecured loans can also be provided. Typically, refinancing loans are provided on a relatively short term, since long-term operations would violate the principle of operational, flexible liquidity management.
Bank of Russia from the beginning to the middle of the 90s of the XX century. carried out refinancing of commercial banks by providing direct targeted loans (without collateral) from centralized resources in order to finance individual industries and regions ( Agriculture, commercial and industrial complex, etc.).
For the purpose of short-term refinancing of banks for their settlements and fulfillment of urgent obligations and payments, the Bank of Russia provides the following types of loans (secured by securities from the Lombard List, as well as promissory notes and rights of claim under loan agreements):
§ intraday loans for a period of one business day (without interest),
§ One-day settlement overnight loans at a rate equal to the refinancing rate.
At present, the Bank of Russia has developed and operates mechanisms for refinancing (crediting) banks, which can be divided into two groups, differing in the degree of efficiency of the decision to grant a loan by the Bank of Russia:
§ lending against collateral (blocking) of securities from the Lombard List of the Bank of Russia;
§ lending secured by non-marketable assets (secured by bills of exchange, rights of claim under loan agreements of organizations in the material production and / or guarantees of credit institutions).
In the first case, collateral for loans is standardized (a specific list of securities is defined - the Lombard List of the Bank of Russia), and accounting for ownership of collateral is carried out by authorized depositories. The decision time ranges from a few seconds to one hour.
In the second case, the process of making a decision on issuing a loan, as well as the process of assessing the quality and value of collateral, is longer and ranges from 8 to 20 days, which are necessary for the Bank of Russia to verify the authenticity of the bill pledged, the existence of ownership rights to the bill, or the existence of rights of claim under loan agreement, and also in some cases are caused by the need to assess the level of solvency and financial condition of the organization whose obligations are offered by the bank as collateral for a loan from the Bank of Russia.
As for the operations of the Central Bank for the rediscount of bills for commercial banks, in the conditions of Russia it is complicated by the fact that it is associated with high credit risks. A significant part of Russian enterprises is in a difficult financial situation, some have significant debts. The carrying out by the Bank of Russia of operations to rediscount commercial bills of exchange issued by Russian enterprises, on the one hand, could provoke banks to take on excessive risks when discounting (purchasing) such bills, and on the other hand, could lead to financial losses of the Bank of Russia itself associated with possible non-fulfillment by enterprises of their obligations to repay debts on promissory notes. That is why the main mechanism for transferring additional liquidity to banks in Russia remains the provision of loans. In the conditions of a stable economic situation in countries with a developed market economy, the importance of refinancing operations is gradually decreasing with the development of money and financial markets, the use of more “fine-tuning” tools. However, in conditions of financial and economic crises, accompanied by threatening liquidity crises of banks and their loss of solvency, the role of these instruments of monetary regulation is strengthening.
Conclusion
Thus, the overall goal of monetary policy is to ensure macroeconomic equilibrium at the optimal rate of economic growth for a given country. In accordance with the purpose of the activities of the Bank of Russia defined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation, the national monetary policy is aimed at ensuring the stability of the national currency.
The main problems in the implementation of monetary policy are:
Fiscal problems associated with low tax collection rates; increase in debt wages and social payments;
The growth of mutual non-payments and the actual bankruptcy of many enterprises in the real sector;
Deterioration of the balance of payments due to unfavorable changes in the situation on the world energy markets and the maintenance of an overvalued ruble exchange rate;
Outflow of capital abroad;
The low exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar.
Therefore, to solve these problems in Russia, it is necessary:
improvement of the legislative base in the sphere of monetary and credit policy; decrease in dollarization of Russian money circulation; strengthening incentives for investment activity; improvement of the tax system; reducing inflation and pursuing a price containment policy; introduction and improvement of electronic money circulation; development and application of a wide range of forms of non-cash circulation; strengthening control over the legality of cash and non-cash transactions to prevent possible illegal actions and others.
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