An excerpt from “Scenario conditions, the main parameters of the forecast of social economic development Russian Federation and marginal levels of prices (tariffs) for the services of companies in the infrastructure sector for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019"
… The base case was developed based on moderate Urals price dynamics at $40/bbl. in 2016 - 2019.
Against the background of low consumer demand, inflation will slow down to 6.5% in 2016 against 12.9% in 2015, with a further slowdown in its growth to 4% by 2019.
During the entire forecast period, the policy of restrained growth of regulated tariffs in the infrastructure sector, especially for utilities, will continue. Annual cost increase utilities will not exceed inflation of the current year.
Gas The price of gas is one of the key factors determining the growth in electricity prices, since the share of gas in the final price of electricity in the forecast period will be approximately 30% with minor fluctuations from year to year. In 2016, gas price indexation for all categories of consumers will be 2% (in July). In the period 2017 - 2019 wholesale gas prices will be indexed: for all categories of consumers, excluding the population, by 2% annually; for the population - 3% annually. Indexation of tariffs for gas transportation through main gas pipelines will be carried out in the same amounts as for wholesale gas prices.
Power industry In 2016, the average annual growth in final electricity prices for all categories of consumers compared to the previous year is expected to be 7.5–8.2%, or approximately 0.5 percent. points lower than previously forecast, due to lower demand from consumers, as well as changes in the structure of consumption in the real sector. According to preliminary estimates, in 2017, the final prices for electricity in the retail market will increase for all categories of consumers by 7.1% on average per year, in 2018 - by 5.4–5.9%, in 2019, an increase in electricity prices will be 5.1-5.6 percent. The growth of regulated tariffs of grid organizations for consumers other than the population (others) on average for 2017 will be 6.3% (indexation in July by 5.0%), in 2018 - 4.5% (4.0%), in 2019 year - 4.0% (4.0 percent). At the same time, the amount of indexation of tariffs for individual network organizations can be differentiated in order to ensure their break-even. In order to reduce the volume of cross-subsidizing in the power grid complex, the indexation of tariffs of grid organizations for the population will be: in 2017 - 7.0%, in 2018 - 6.0%, in 2019 - 6.0 percent.
On the wholesale market price growth is forecasted: in 2017 - at the level of 7.5%, in 2018 - 5.5-6.5%, in 2019 - 5.5-6.5%. The increase in prices on the wholesale market exceeded the level of inflation in 2017 mainly due to the continued commissioning of new capacity under capacity supply agreements.
Department of Housing and Utilities The marginal indices of changes in payments by citizens for public utilities (excluding services for the removal and disposal of household waste included in utilities from 01/01/2017) will be: from July 2017 - 4.8%, from July 2018 - 4.3%, since July 2019 - 4.0 percent. Heat tariffs will be indexed from July 2017 by 4.1%, from July 2018 by 3.9% and from July 2019 by 3.7%. Tariffs for water supply in this period will be indexed by 6.2%, 6.0% and 4.7% respectively. The key factors in changing the cost of utilities are the indexation of gas prices and the increase in electricity prices, which, in turn, are the input costs of heat and water supply organizations.
By the end of 2016, the formation of a regulatory framework for a phased transition to a new method of regulating the heat energy market based on the price limit (alternative boiler house) will be completed.
Assessing the growth in the welfare of the country's population is not an easy task. The incomes of citizens are growing, but at the same time prices are also rising. Which country boasts higher income growth - Russia or, say, Switzerland?
To answer this and many other questions, economists and statisticians use the so-called. index consumer prices- one of the most important economic indicators, which estimates the rate of inflation in the country for a certain period. It is sometimes referred to as the inflation index. Using this indicator in calculations, you can find out how much richer or poorer the inhabitants of a particular country or region actually became over a certain period of time.
In Russia, the CPI values for years, months and in the regional context are published on the official website of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation. Currently, statistics have been kept since 1991. This data can be used to estimate how much the final prices of goods from consumer basket in the current period differ from the cost of the same goods in an earlier (base) period.
CPI price index, CPI) is calculated as the ratio of the cost of goods and services in billing period to the prices for the same goods and services in the base period, taking into account the share of these goods and services in the consumer basket, or according to the so-called. Laspeyres formula.
Usually, when calculating, the cost of the consumer basket in the annual period is taken as the base value, for example: in September 2015 - for September 2014, in October 2015 - for October 2014, in November 2015 - for November 2014. , etc. However, depending on the area of application, this indicator can also be calculated to the level of December last year and (for macroeconomic research and long-term planning) to the price level for years and even decades in the past.
The value, to some extent the inverse of the CPI, is called the GDP deflator, or the Pasche (Paasche) index. It is also used to assess the level of inflation and is defined as the ratio of the size of the GDP of the reference period in percent to the GDP of the base period. It's not the same thing. Unlike the inflation index, the deflator is based not on the cost of the consumer basket, but on GDP as a whole; the CPI takes into account the value of imported goods, but not the GDP deflator.
In addition, a third approach can also be applied - the Fisher formula, a cross between the CPI and the GDP deflator, but now it is rarely used (Wikipedia will help how the indicator is calculated using this complex formula).
The indicator calculated according to the Laspeyres formula shows how the cost of goods and services included in the consumer basket has changed in relation to the base period. If it is more than one (100%), then there is an increase in prices (inflation), if less - a decrease (deflation). So why is this indicator needed?
The CPI allows you to adjust the final income of the population for the period by the general price level and show how much they increased or fell real income population, i.e. have we become richer or poorer, and by how much. It influences interest rates and courses on stock market and the bond market, is used by the Ministry of Economic Development to index the salaries of state employees, pensions and benefits.
The forecast average annual inflation rate is taken into account when developing the budget for the next year. The productivity of labor in the economy is also measured taking into account the dynamics of the price level. The CBR inflation forecast is used to calculate the average annual exchange rate against the ruble, so the CPI has a big impact on forex trading. How does this factor affect exchange rates? High inflation indicates a low purchasing power of the ruble; the higher the predicted CPI, the weaker the exchange rate of the national currency today.
The value of the indicator for the Russian Federation for 2017 was 112.9%. Based on reports in the context of the regions of the Russian Federation published by Federal Service state statistics on its website, the difference in inflation by region was insignificant.
Thus, in 2017 Moscow showed an increase in the cost of living at the level of 114.1%, in St. Petersburg the index increased compared to previous year up to 113.2%, in Nizhny Novgorod region- 112.2%, in Rostov - 112.1%, in Samara - 112.7%, in Chelyabinsk - 112.0%, in the Altai Territory - 112.4%, in the Krasnodar Territory - 112.7%. The Volgograd region showed an increase of 113.2%, Yaroslavl - 113.9%. The highest inflation was recorded in the Republic of Crimea - 27.6%,
In the context of product groups, the indicator also fluctuated slightly last year and amounted to:
Price growth in the first two months of 2017 was 1.6%, which means an average monthly increase of 0.8%, or 9.6% year on year. There are several resources on the Internet that offer a very convenient calculator for calculating the inflation index for different periods.
The consumer basket used by Rosstat to calculate the inflation rate, unlike the minimum basket, includes a wide range of goods and services (396 items in total), including such unusual ones as foreign tours and funeral services. The main problem in calculating the indicator is how to determine the basic set of products and services included in the consumer basket. How to calculate the value of an indicator for a product or service that did not exist yesterday? How to apply in calculations the data that a particular product or service in one social group or region occupies a large share of expenditures, and in another - a minimal one? The inflation index underestimates structural shifts in consumption (the effect of replacing expensive goods with cheap ones) and ignores variations in the cost of goods depending on their quality, so it is believed that real inflation is lower than the value of this indicator.
The Federal Budget Law for 2018 provides for an inflation rate of 6.4%, and this, despite average cost a barrel of oil around $50. It is already clear that the price of oil will be below this level, and inflation in Russia will be higher, which will affect the consumer price index. Representatives of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation believe that this figure will be around 7 percent by the end of the year.
The head of the Ministry of Economic Development A. Ulyukaev has already named different figures since the beginning of the year, and based on recent statements, the department expects price growth in 2018 to be less than 8%. The UN measures a possible increase in the cost of living in Russia at 10.5%. The actual value is likely to be in the region of the average of these forecasts.
According to Rosstat, according to the results of the first two months of 2018, the CPI in annual terms amounted to 109.8% in January, 108.1% in February, and 101.6% in February compared to December 2017. The dynamics of the indicator values gives reason to believe that the annual value will be in the region of 7.5 - 9%. However, the analysis of such a short horizon is unlikely to be useful in a practical sense, since too superficial data are accepted.
According to the forecast for 2016-2018, published by the government at the end of 2015, the final income of the population, adjusted for inflation, will continue to decline in 2016 and will decrease by 0.7% compared to 2015. The reasons are the reduction in expenditures of budgets of all levels for wages and social benefits. However, the inflation rates included in this forecast are lower than the actual ones, which means that the real incomes of the population are likely to decrease by several percent in 2018, which is directly related to how this will interact with the consumer price index.
February 2017 year-on-year inflation rate in Russia and some foreign countries made up:
Based on the data in the table, we can conclude that prices are stable over the medium term in the main economies of the world (China, the USA, the Eurozone countries), and in some places even deflation is observed.
On the contrary, the highest rates of price growth are in countries that have experienced or are experiencing periods of political instability or falling energy prices (Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Russia).
Considering that the Minsk authorities are very likely to put some pressure on Belstat, the statistics for Belarus do not reflect the real state of affairs about the consumer price index.
The level of prices for goods and services is always of interest to Russians, because only very rich people can afford not to keep track of the cost of clothing, food, utilities and the like. Ordinary citizens, faced with new numbers on price tags, are forced to revise their budget, commensurate income with expenses. In the context of a protracted crisis, deflator indices are becoming an important measure of Russia's well-being, as they allow experts to judge the real income level of citizens.
The recent, tax maneuver in the oil sector and the rapid pace will no doubt have a negative impact on the performance of the retail market. All these factors will affect not only the goods of the consumer group, but also the cost of fuel, electricity and freight at enterprises, and this will lead to an increase in the cost of all types of services and goods - from the already mentioned food products to real estate.
The deflator index will show what the purchasing power of the ruble will be
Forecasting price dynamics is an important stage in planning, so experts must calculate deflator indices. Ordinary citizens are also interested in this forecast - it will allow them to make a shopping plan, especially when it comes to large acquisitions. Let's figure out together what this price indicator can become in 2019!
talking plain language, the deflator index is a coefficient used to determine the final price of a certain set of goods and services. These indicators should be calculated for a couple of years ahead, as this allows the Ministry of Economic Development to develop measures to improve the social and economic life Russians, as well as to consider measures to curb negative financial processes. Thus, deflator indices are the basis for predicting prices for the next year.
In fact, economists compare prices for commodity groups in the current time period with basic price values. If we talk about the economic content of this indicator, then it resembles the consumer price index - only the deflator is calculated not just for individual consumer goods, but for a full range of products from the commodity and service sectors, including those that were not previously presented on the market.
Having understood the specifics of the calculations of this indicator, one can notice its main drawback - deflators reflect the economic situation in such a way that the value of inflation turns out to be underestimated. According to independent experts, this is precisely why government economists are actively using deflators - because they need to show that life in the country is going well.
After determining the deflator indexes, experts reduce the calculations into a single forecast, taking into account the medium and long term. As a result, the Ministry of Economic Development publishes probable scenarios that take into account not only the manifestations of certain internal factors, but also the conditions of external markets. This helps the country's leadership to choose goals, the achievement of which will improve the standard of living in the state, as well as to develop scenarios for their implementation, taking into account the positive and negative forecasts.
The Ministry of Economic Development uses the deflator index when creating forecasts The forecast assumes the implementation of one of 3 scenarios. In Russia they are known as:
The forecasts take into account that: a) Russia will continue to be affected by sanctions from Western European states and the United States; b) the government of the Russian Federation is implementing a set of retaliatory anti-sanction measures; in) international economics is gradually stabilizing, and global crises and shock situations will bypass the world community. In this case:
This forecast is based on the following assumptions:
Taking into account the above theses, the following changes in the economy of the Russian Federation are possible:
The target calculations are based on the same set of assumptions as the basic economic development scenario, however, its calculations include additional positive factors:
According to the target scenario, the growth of oil production will significantly strengthen the position of the Russian Federation This forecast assumes that financial system The Russian Federation will suffer from a number of crisis phenomena:
According to the most expected scenario (which, however, has not yet been adjusted for tax and social innovations, such as raising the retirement age, fiscal maneuver in oil industry and an increase in the excise tax on fuel in 2019), the Ministry of Economic Development is counting on the following figures:
Experts from the main bank of the Russian Federation say that oil prices, according to their calculations, will grow much stronger in 2019 than the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development. According to Elvira Nabiullina, who is the head of the department, the average price of black gold will reach $55. per barrel. And since the ruble exchange rate has become less dependent on oil prices, the scale of the influence of this factor on a number of consumer prices will noticeably decrease.
Despite the new economic decisions in the field of social and economic policy(raising VAT to 20%, raising the retirement age to 63 for Russians and 65 for Russians), the Central Bank promises that inflation will not exceed 4%. However, Nabiullina noted that last news negatively affected the inflation expectations of ordinary Russians - according to polls, now the country is waiting for prices to rise up to 7.8% per year.
Independent experts believe that the joy of the authorities is premature: due to economic innovations, prices for all types of goods and services will begin to rise It should be noted that non-governmental experts refer to financial prospects 2019 with less optimism. Analysts believe that the government will not keep inflation at this level. 4% is an unattainable figure, and it will be good if in 2019 financial injections and tough monetary policy will allow fixing the purchasing power of the ruble at least at the level of 4.5%. Interested in details? Then check out the forecasts from various spheres of the economic life of the Russian Federation!
The deflator index is a coefficient that reflects the change in consumer prices for goods, works and services when recalculating the current value into constant prices. We tell you how to calculate the deflator, how to use it in public procurement, and what are the forecast deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development until 2020.
Price index and deflator are identical concepts that are used by experts to calculate the final cost of goods, works or services. The deflator is the value used to convert current economic indicators to constant prices.
This is a coefficient that is set annually and calculated for several periods in advance, being the basis for state forecasting of economic development in future periods. For example, the 2020-2020 deflator index was predictively calculated back in 2017. The deflator is necessary when calculating key macroeconomic indicators - gross domestic and national product (GDP and GNP), the accumulation fund, the consumer price index (CPI), the dynamics of the physical volume of consumption, and many others.
Specialists of the Ministry of Economic Development calculate sectoral indices taking into account the price level for goods, works and services recorded in the previous period. The coefficient is set annually and fixed by the administrative documents of the ministry. Thus, the indicator for 2020 was determined by the Order of the Ministry of Economic Development No. 579 of October 30, 2017, and the official deflator index for 2020 of the Ministry of Economic Development has not yet been published, but is expected in the near future.
The procedure and methodology for calculating the coefficient is regulated regulations Government of the Russian Federation - the rules for calculating forecast values are specified in Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 1234 dated 11/14/2015, as well as in Order of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia No. 276 dated 06/01/2018, fixing the regulation for the use of cost indices and deflators by type economic activity(in the implementation of the state defense order).
To find out the deflator index, the calculation formula is the result of the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP multiplied by 100.
In turn, the GDP deflator index (calculation formula) is the following mathematical calculation: the value of the basket of GDP at current prices / the value of the basket of GDP at base year prices × 100%.
Since the formula for calculating the coefficient uses data on all goods, works and services produced in the country, the calculated value of the deflator reflects the real dynamics of the price level in the economy. When calculating the index, price movements are also taken into account, taking into account changes in production structure country, actual volumes of GWS output in physical terms and other indicators recorded in reporting period.
The Paasche aggregate index is calculated as follows:
By calculating the value of the Paasche price index, you can analyze the change in price indicators for goods, works and services of the reporting period. compared to the base prices for similar product categories sold in the reporting period. Thus, the Paasche coefficient illustrates the degree of appreciation or, conversely, the reduction in the cost of manufactured products.
With the help of the GDP deflator, calculated according to the Paasche formula, one can also track the inflation rate. In the event that the calculated value is greater than 1 (or greater than 100%, if the calculation is carried out as a percentage), then inflation in the country has increased, but if the calculated indicator is below 1 (or 100%), then the inflation rate has decreased.
The deflator index for 2020-2021 has not yet been officially published by the Ministry of Economic Development, however, forecast values in various production areas have already been presented. At the same time, the specified values of the coefficient for future periods will still be adjusted by the specialists of the ministry, taking into account the recent economic changes and social reforms, such as pension (raising the retirement age) and tax (increasing excise taxes on fuel).
Upcoming events will directly affect the deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2020. But when developing a budget and planning procurement activities for the next year and planning periods, customer organizations can use the already existing coefficient values calculated by the ministry's specialists.
Let's present the calculated consumer price index, which characterizes the level of inflation, and deflator indices for 2020-2021 in the table.
| Industries | 2018 | 2020 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production, transmission and distribution of electricity, gas, steam and hot water | 109,0 | 107,1 | 106,7 | 106,7 |
| Mining | 108,7 | 106,5 | 106,0 | 106,2 |
| Manufacturing industries | 106,8 | 105,4 | 105,1 | 105,0 |
| Industry | 107,6 | 105,9 | 105,3 | 105,5 |
| Construction | 106,8 | 105,9 | 105,2 | 104,9 |
| Agriculture | 105,3 | 104,2 | 103,9 | 103,8 |
| Freight transport | 107,0 | 106,0 | 105,7 | 105,6 |
| Investments in fixed assets (capital investments) | 106,9 | 105,5 | 105,! | 104,8 |
| Retail turnover | 104,9 | 103,9 | 103,5 | 103,7 |
| Paid services to the population | 106,9 | 106,2 | 105,6 | 105,7 |
| Inflation (CPI) average annual | 104,7 | 104,4 | 104,2 | 104,1 |
The index for consumer goods is planned at 104.2. Retail electricity prices will be indexed at 109.1.
Also on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development are the indices that will be used in 2020 for tax purposes:
Thus, in many industrial and manufacturing sectors, a gradual decrease in the coefficient is observed. So, after calculating the deflator index for 2020 (Ministry of Economic Development), construction and construction works will be calculated with a coefficient lower than in the current year, 2020.
When public procurement is carried out within the framework of Law 44-FZ, indices are used in the calculation and justification of the NMTsK (Letter of the Ministry of Economic Development No. D28i-1688 dated 06/22/2016). The customer calculates the initial (maximum) price of the contract in accordance with the provisions of Art. 22 44-FZ.
When substantiating the NMTsK calculated using the market analysis method, it is necessary to use annual deflator coefficients, since, in accordance with Part 3 of Art. 22 44-FZ, information on the cost of goods, works, services should be analyzed taking into account price and commercial offers comparable with the base period.
When planning the procurement budget for 2020 and subsequent periods and justifying the NMCC, the sectoral deflator is used in accordance with the Forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2024. AT this document contains forecast indicators of the index by type of economic activity both for the next year and for the planning period of 2020-2024.
Indices are also used by customers when determining the initial (maximum) price based on the design and estimate method (part 9 of article 22 44-FZ) when making purchases for construction, reconstruction, overhaul(Letter of the Ministry of Finance No. 24-01-10/72553 dated 11/03/2017). The deflator index for 2020 for estimates is also indicated in the socio-economic forecast. At the moment, the coefficient has a value of 105.0.
When concluding a construction contract with a single supplier, the contracting authority must also calculate the cost of the contract on the basis of Part 9 of Art. 22 44-FZ - by design and estimate method.
Regardless of whether the customer concludes a contract with a single supplier or conducts tenders, the CMP (contract price) is calculated by the specialist in charge of procurement in the institution, taking into account methodological recommendations, approved by the Order of the Ministry of Economic Development No. 567 dated 02.10.2013.
Pricing and estimated rationing in the field of urban planning is regulated by the provisions of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, namely Article 8.3. Deflator coefficients are used in the calculation estimated cost object by years of implementation (as part of the implementation of the federal investment project). The NMCC is determined in accordance with the calculated estimate of construction work (Article 22), while the calculation takes into account the base version of the index from the socio-economic forecast.
In the event that construction is carried out using funds federal budget provided for under the federal address investment program, then when determining the NMCC, it is recommended to set the size of the initial (maximum) price within the volume allocated by the main manager capital investments for the implementation of such an investment project (clause 6.3 of the Methodological Recommendations, approved by the Government of the Russian Federation No. 427 of May 18, 2009).
At the same time, if, according to the results of checking the reliability of determining the estimated cost of such objects, the estimate for the years of construction, calculated in the prices of the corresponding years using deflators, does not exceed the volume of allocated capital investments, then the NMCC for construction work is formed based on the specified estimated cost (clause 6.4 of the Guidelines ).
The deflator index for 2020 in construction should also be used when calculating the cost design work(clause 1.7 Guidelines) for correct planning of future capital investments.
Deflators within the framework of 223-FZ can be used for the following purposes: if the value of the contract has been adjusted due to price growth (inflation) in accordance with the forecast indicators of the coefficient, then this is the basis for changing essential conditions contracts. At the same time, the contracting authority is obliged to prescribe such a possibility in its procurement regulations. An example of such a procurement provision can be found below.
The index is also used in the implementation of the state defense order. In the process of planning the budget for the State Defense Order for future periods, setting prices for products, as well as for calculating and justifying the NMCC, sectoral deflator coefficients are used. Deflators in the state defense order in 2020 are normalized by Order of the Ministry of Economic Development No. 276 of 06/01/2018.
The key aspects of using the index in the field of state defense orders are:
The application of the coefficient applies to the formation of forecast prices for the development, manufacture, maintenance, repair and disposal of products supplied under the State Defense Order, as well as goods, works and services included in the lists of products with regulated pricing.
The provisions of the regulatory documentation for the state defense order do not apply to the purchase of food products. NMTsK for the corresponding state order should be determined in accordance with Art. 22 44-FZ. The priority method for calculating the initial (maximum) price is the market analysis method (part 6 of article 22 44-FZ). Based on part 3 of Art. 22, in order to calculate the NMTsK using comparable market prices, the state customer needs to use a deflator to bring data on the prices of goods, works or services to the appropriate values.
Thus, the use of the deflator coefficient is mandatory when justifying the NMCC within the framework of the law 44-FZ.
There are several indicators for measuring inflation, and the most common is the consumer price index, data on which is provided by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. It is calculated as a percentage and reflects the change in the average final price of the basic consumer basket over a certain period of time. The second, the so-called "gross domestic product deflator", which determines the change in prices for the year for all goods and services included in the calculation of GDP, has a number of disadvantages, for example, it does not take into account imported goods.
The undoubted advantage of the CPI is its ability to cover the most popular goods, including imported ones. On the other hand, this indicator has a number of disadvantages. Any change in the composition of the basic consumer basket makes the data for the past and updated periods incomparable. If you do not make such changes, then the selected basket will gradually lose its relevance.
An even more fundamental problem is the essential definition of the composition of the basic consumer basket. AT different countries and even in different regions of the same country, the same goods may have different values and significantly different prices. Changing the geographic sample for the base basket opens up a wide range of possibilities for manipulating the indicator. Another feature of consumer inflation is that it can be calculated different ways even based on the same sample. For example, the average annual index often differs significantly from the index calculated using the "end of period" method (the last quarter or December of the measured year to the last quarter or December of the previous year).
Taking into account all of the above, professional economists are quite skeptical about the officially published data of the consumer price index. The authorities tend to underestimate the real level of inflation for political reasons, using the methodological and technical nuances of calculating this indicator that are obscure to most people.
In the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economic Development and central bank. Their methods are somewhat different. The Government of the Russian Federation regularly publishes a forecast economic situation, including consumer inflation, for the current and next years. This forecast usually contains three possible scenarios. Favorable, unfavorable, etc. "base", based on the continuation of current trends.
In the latest (July 2018) forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2019, the consumer price index is set at 4.3% according to the “baseline” scenario and the “end of period” calculation methodology. The previous forecast was 4.2%. The other two scenarios contain similar numbers. Target, i.e. the government's desired inflation rate is set at 4%.
The actual achievement of these indicators, even according to the official calculation methodology, is a difficult task. Most of the country's population expects price growth in 2018 and 2019 at the level of 7-8% and even more. Among the factors accelerating inflation in Russia are:
However, the main risk for the Russian economy in general and consumer inflation in particular in 2019 remains dependence on global oil prices. Currently, they are stored for enough high level but are subject to sharp and sudden fluctuations. A significant drop in oil prices can lead to dire consequences. Among them, the shock devaluation of the ruble against major world currencies, the explosive growth in prices for imported goods, the growth of tariffs natural monopolies, the growing issue of unsecured money to cover public spending, as well as a significant increase in various taxes and fees.
The Ministry of Economic Development has clarified the wording of the inflation forecast for 2019 - from 4.3% to 5%.
