The government of Belarus hopes for GDP growth of at least 3.5% in 2018. Expert forecasts are more modest: The World Bank predicts growth at the level of 2.1%, the IMF - 0.7%. With which all experts agree - the expected growth will not be determined by structural shifts in the Belarusian economy, but by a more favorable external environment.
The government expects at the end of 2017 GDP growth by 2% with a forecast of 1.7%, and by the end of 2018 - by 3.5%, Prime Minister of Belarus Andrei Kobyakov said at a meeting of the Council of Ministers on December 5 . As for inflation, the Ministry of Economy and the National Bank of Belarus expect that it will not exceed 7% in 2017. Initially, the forecast of the Belarusian authorities for 2017 provided for GDP growth at the level of 1.7% with inflation not exceeding 9%.
The World Bank predicts that Belarus' GDP in 2017 will increase by 1.8%, inflation will be 9%, and the current account deficit will be minus 3.2% of GDP.
A moderate recovery of the Belarusian economy in 2017 was ensured by several factors, according to WB experts. Namely: the situation in foreign markets has improved, economic growth has strengthened in Russia, commodity prices have risen, which stimulated the growth of Belarusian exports and supported business activity within the country. Important condition: tough money-credit policy and the fiscal policy that the Belarusian government and the National Bank have been pursuing since 2015.
In 2018, the World Bank expects Belarus' GDP to grow by 2.1%, inflation - within 7.2%. The current account deficit forecast is minus 3.6%.
The bank estimates that a more favorable external economic environment will continue in 2018, supporting a growth rate of 2% of GDP. The recovery of income growth will in turn stabilize the poverty rate (if we consider the poverty rate as spending $5.5 a day, measured in purchasing power parity). The situation on the labor market will be difficult due to severe financial condition state enterprises.
High rates economic growth in Belarus, WB experts do not expect this due to structural weaknesses in the economy. Prices for imported energy resources will not be as favorable for Belarus as before. This means that Belarus will be able to rely less on Russia and on high prices for raw materials exports. Therefore, if a country stops developing, it will fall into the trap of slow growth.
Among the potential factors for the growth of the Belarusian economy, WB experts name the improvement of the business environment for the development of private entrepreneurship and the solution of the problem of inefficient state-owned enterprises. If the combination of these measures works, Belarus could reach higher growth rates in the medium term.
Belarus to pay $3.1 billion in 2018 external debt. To do this, Belarus needs long-term funding. Previous agreements between Belarus and the Russian Federation on refinancing Belarusian debts on Russian loans and issuing Eurobonds will provide only a temporary reduction in pressure on payment balance, but in the medium term, sources of a more sustainable solution to the problem of external financing are needed, WB experts are convinced.
The second group of risks is related to the fact that Belarus is still dependent on oil supplies from Russia and fluctuations in world commodity prices.
Previously, serious growth in Belarus' GDP was provided by oil subsidies. In particular, in 2007 it reached 8%, outstripping all the countries of the region, including Russia. In general, in some years the oil subsidy reached 15% of the Belarusian GDP. The sharp fall in oil reduced the size of these gains. In 2016, the oil subsidy amounted to about 4.6% of Belarusian GDP, down 9 percentage points compared to previous year, which had a negative impact on economic growth rates, WB experts say.
Source: employee calculations World Bank based on Belstat and PMR data.
Another serious risk, which, according to WB experts, may threaten macroeconomic stability in Belarus, is artificial stimulation of GDP growth and administrative wage growth.
Source: World Bank staff calculations based on Belstat data.
The IMF raised the forecast for Belarus' GDP dynamics in 2017 to 0.7% (from minus 0.8% in the April review). At the same time, the fund's experts expect that inflation in Belarus by the end of 2017 will be at the level of 8%, not 9.3%. The current account deficit forecast for Belarus in 2017 has been downgraded to minus 5.3% of GDP (the previous forecast was minus 4.7% of GDP).
According to the Fund's experts, the main stimulus for the growth of the Belarusian economy was the improvement in dynamics in the region and in Russia in particular. At the same time, they especially note the positive impact of the oil and gas agreements signed in April 2017 with Russia.
In 2018, the IMF predicts GDP growth in Belarus by 0.7%, inflation - at the level of 7.5%, the current account deficit of Belarus - minus 4.6% of GDP.
Recall that in 2015-2016 Belarus negotiated with the IMF on new program cooperation, involving a loan of about $ 3 billion at 2.28% per annum for 10 years, with the conditions that Belarus will carry out reforms in the payment of housing and communal services and the public sector in a short time. The Belarusian authorities did not dare to reform. They found alternative sources of external loans, although more expensive. In June 2017, Belarus placed 7- and 10-year Eurobond issues totaling $1.4 billion and received 3 tranches of a Eurasian loan in the amount of $800 million. And in August, she attracted a 10-year loan from the Russian government in the amount of $700 million.
Negotiations on a new program with the IMF stalled. In November 2017, another IMF mission to Belarus ended. The consultations were predominantly technical in nature.
Director of the IPM Research Center Alexander Chubrik at the conference " Economic environment for business development” on December 20 noted that in 2017 the Belarusian economy began to recover, which was facilitated by the cyclical component, the growth of domestic demand and exports. According to his estimates, in 2017 the GDP of Belarus will grow by 2.3%, and in 2018 by 2.5%.
The expert emphasized that in 2017, the growth of non-oil exports of Belarus was facilitated not only by the recovery of the Russian economy, but also by the weakening of the real effective exchange rate Belarusian ruble. “The ruble is gradually depreciating, and the competitiveness of Belarusian goods does not seem to be deteriorating – of course, this primarily concerns Russian market”, he noted.
The expert predicts that the role of non-oil exports of Belarus will decrease. By the end of 2018, the growth of oil exports will be about 40%, and this is a fairly significant contribution to GDP.
Real GDP growth in Belarus will begin to slow down in the first quarter of 2018, A. Chubrik believes. According to him, in 2018 the growth money supply in Belarus will slow down, there will also be some weakening of the Belarusian ruble following the Russian ruble. The exchange rate in the fourth quarter of 2018 will be 2.07-2.08 rubles to the dollar. Will remain tough monetary policy. Some acceleration of inflation is expected by the end of 2018, which will lead to a revival of the consumer market and a possible increase in housing and communal services tariffs.
Senior Research Fellow, BEROC Dmitry Kruk believes that the growth of the national economy that emerged in 2017 should hardly be considered a recovery of growth - rather, it is an exit from a long recession and a return to a period of stagnation, the end of which is not yet visible.
“The key problem is that all of our growth has been based on capital accumulation. We accumulate capital and continue to do what we can, in large volumes. But such a model is exhaustible. We have an acute shortage of productivity,” the expert stated.
For this reason, the possible growth of the national economy is 2.5% - 3.5%. “At the same time, growth may sink to minus 5% if the load of accumulated debts or some other problems affect it,” D. Kruk believes.
According to his estimates, in the coming years, Belarus will lag behind the countries of the region, with the exception of Ukraine. “The economy does not cope with its mission - to increase incomes and ensure the growth of well-being,” D. Kruk emphasized.
As a result, low productivity within the Belarusian economy leads to depreciation national currency. Productivity is essential to competitiveness. “If technological advantages do not allow for an advantage, price factors come into play. We can see a steady trend towards the depreciation of our currency. It is predetermined by the fact that we do not have enough productivity,” said D. Crook.
If performance is lacking, then obviously the real exchange rate should continue to depreciate. The average annual rates for the last 15 years were about 3 p.p. in year. “My conservative estimate is that the trend will continue, and the depreciation will go at a slightly slower pace. A depreciation of about 2% per year may be enough to compensate for the loss in productivity, ”the expert believes.
According to his calculations, taking into account the expected inflation of 6% per annum, the depreciation of the real exchange rate at 2% and inflation in neighboring countries at 2%, to maintain competitiveness Belarusian economy devaluation will be needed, proportional to inflation - that is, approximately 2%.
“What does this lead to? We will continue to depreciate. This means that in dollar terms, nominal figures will be the barrier we hit. We have a very small real growth - 2%, and devaluation, albeit small, eats it up. This growth regime leads to a lack of competitiveness and conservation of real growth. Such a growth scenario is not acceptable,” D. Kruk stated.
Foreign currency payments of Belarus on the state debt in 2018 are estimated in total at more than 3.7 billion dollars: 2.5 billion dollars are needed to repay the principal debt, more than 1.2 billion dollars - to service it.
To do this, in 2018 Belarus plans to attract 1.2 billion dollars of loans in the foreign and domestic markets. This includes receiving the 6th and 7th tranches of the EFSD loan by the end of the first quarter of 2018 (note that the only international financial institution, with which Belarus now has loan program, is the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development), as well as Eurobonds worth $600 million on the external market and attract $400 million on the domestic market, said the Minister of Finance of Belarus Vladimir Amarin December 18th. In the first case, these will presumably be new Eurobonds, in the second case, foreign currency long-term bonds of the Ministry of Finance with circulation in Belarus.
In 2017, the Ministry of Finance entered the foreign market for Eurobonds - 1.4 billion dollars (Eurobonds were placed in two tranches with a yield of 7.125% and 7.625%). According to V. Amarin, including in order to fulfill obligations in the current year and on the second tranche of Eurobonds in January 2018 in the amount of $800 million.
“Next year we plan to complete our Eurobond placement, total amount which was planned in the amount of 2 billion dollars. Of these, we attracted 1.4 billion dollars this year, there are still 600 million dollars left. I think we will come out with this placement in the first quarter of next year,” the minister said.
In early December, V. Amarin said that in 2018 Belarus does not exclude the possibility of placing bonds on the Russian and Asian markets. According to him, when placing bonds in Russia and in Asia, "the amounts will be incomparable with Eurobonds, because these are different markets and conditions." “Up to $500 million in total in the two markets. But we have not gone deep enough into these processes to know the sums. Still a work in progress,” he said. And he added that Belarus is striving to diversify its borrowing instruments in order to be not only on the European Eurobond market.
The Ministry of Finance notes that the service of the state debt of Belarus is fully carried out at the expense of the general budget revenues. Non-debt sources, that is, export customs duties for oil products ($486.5 million), as well as foreign currency balances of the republican budget in the amount of $850 million, formed from the placement of Belarusian Eurobonds this year.
For 2018, it is proposed to approve the limit of domestic public debt Belarus in the amount of 10 billion rubles, and the limit of the external public debt of Belarus - in the amount of 19.6 billion dollars. “If the specified limits are observed, the indicators economic security on public debt at the end of 2018 will be met. The ratio of public debt to GDP will not exceed 44.5%, and the debt of the public administration sector will not exceed 46.9% with thresholds economic security of 45% and 50%, respectively,” V. Amarin noted.
What can Belarus expect in 2017, will there be changes in terms of policy?And you don't have to wait for anything. Everything is stable to the point of unambiguity. And only external instabilities can somehow influence our "swamp", in terms of shaking it, forcing us to look for a new average-stable state.
How will the year go for the economy, is another devaluation of the Belarusian ruble possible?
And here, on the whole, it is stable ... bad. The crisis is not over yet, oil has not yet decided to steadily rise in price, and the fall in energy prices may well reach $10 per barrel. You know, addiction Russian ruble from oil and gas prices directly affects the Belarusian ruble, which has recently been pegged even more strongly to the Russian one in a basket of currencies. They will have to fall together. It is quite probable that the Russian exchange rate Ruble up to 120-150 per dollar. Well, the creeping devaluation of our new ruble by half. For 4-5 rubles. per dollar. All this is likely next year.
Is there a threat to Belarus of catastrophes, accidents, riots?
Large man-made disasters can not be expected, but rather large accidents are predicted. Primarily associated with the elements of fire: fires, explosions. Specifically, of course, I won’t indicate the time and place, here, as they say, “where it’s thin, it breaks there.” Those. It can happen in any place where prerequisites and conditions are created for the activation and manifestation of the fiery element of the year. Well, the elements of the masses this year are also unstable, unpredictable. Possible, but not required, riots and speeches for unpredictable reasons in advance. The authorities will also not be able to predict what the people will not like to the point of protest. In addition, the protest mood of the year is strange - the energy of the year is similar to the word "show off". And this means some actions will be strange, which in other years the activists of the action would not have dared to do. Yes, and then they will remember themselves according to the type: damn it, what got into me, what fried rooster pecked me?
What actions need to be taken in 2017 to CEO Belarusian company in order for the year to be financially successful?
Something similar to the strange behavior of the protesters should be in the head who can succeed in this stable depression year. Those. unexpected (for others, for the market) actions, moves, innovations and business schemes can make a breakthrough. Creativity, especially paradoxical creativity, is the basis of success in the new year.
Once you made a prediction that the historical mission of Belarus is to become the center of the unification of the West and the East, is this prospect still relevant?
This prospect remains, but it is a prospect of a distant future, not during the lifetime of the current president, not during our lifetime, to be replaced by 2-3 generations. There will probably even Baltic-Black Sea Union (BCS) centered in Belarus or Poland. The reduced EU under the banner of Islam, the Christian center - BChS, and the North from the countries of Scandinavia and the republics in place of the European part of Russia.
How will the economies of Europe, China, and the USA develop in 2017? Should we be afraid of the disappearance of the euro as a currency (you made such a forecast in 2011), the fall of the dollar?
The end of December is a traditional time for summing up and making plans for the future.
“After celebrating the New Year according to Western custom - January 1 - we will meet the Eastern (Chinese) New Year: it will begin on the "Aquarius" new moon (the Fire Rooster will come into its own on January 28). On March 21 - on the day of the spring equinox - the astrological, or natural New Year will come. These dates with their rhythms have a positive impact on our lives: they are the harbingers of spring. Indeed, after the winter solstice on December 21, daylight hours began to grow, and the sun began to give more and more light and heat. In March 2017, a new 36-year cycle begins, which means that in the coming year we will see the emergence of new trends in the economy, politics, technology, and consumer priorities. Time for a change - that's what to expect. It is difficult to “catch” a new wave in time, but those who can do it will feel the taste of victory,” she said. Galina GAYDUK, astrologer of the AstroGEO laboratory of the Avestan School of Astrology.
Let's start with the most important astronomical events that will set the tone for the main rhythms of the year. These include four eclipses: two solar and two lunar. They will occur in pairs - February 11 and 26, August 7 and 21 with a certain sequence: first - a lunar eclipse, and then - a solar one. Please note that for one month before and after the eclipse, there is a zone of both geoclimatic and geopolitical instability. An example is the earthquake in Italy on August 24, 2016 and a number of subsequent seismic disturbances. Recall that long-distance travel is not recommended at this time, especially to seismically active zones. During this period, there is an increase in the number of man-made disasters and more frequent cases of inadequate behavior of people with a mobile psyche. Observations show that for people born on dates shortly before or after which eclipses occur, the year can be busy, but not necessarily negative. This is especially true for those born in 1941, 1960, 1979 and 1998 under the signs of Aquarius and Leo, as well as Scorpio and Taurus. During the period of eclipses, the likelihood of cardiovascular diseases and strokes increases. Although these tendencies are strictly individual, try not to overexert yourself during this period.
Countries with economies oriented towards the domestic market will be in the most advantageous position. World currencies will be in a fever. Warning signs will appear from March to May, but this is only a harbinger of the coming systemic crisis. The eurozone is at particular risk. In August-September, events in the United States may develop according to an unexpected scenario: the August eclipses resonate with geographic location country and the horoscope of the new president. The most difficult period is the end of next year. Periods of currency fevers are possible before or shortly after February 6, March 4-15, June 9 and December. It is unreasonable to spend money on things of expensive brands, it is more expedient to take care of a practical and rational investment of finances. Do not forget to replenish food supplies: the harvest year will not be everywhere. Strengthening the borders is another important task that should not be neglected. The ability to trade by barter will come in handy. The main thing is prosperity in the country, and not only money. Sharp turns can play a cruel joke: the weakest will become the strongest and vice versa.
February, April, July, August, December will be problematic months of the coming year in geoclimatic terms. The calmest months are May, June, October, November. It is important to note that policies depend on general trends in the economy and climate. Geopolitical instability is expected in February, March, April, July, August, December. May, June, November will be relatively calm.
The regions of tension in the first half of the aura of the February eclipses will be Central and South America, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Australia, the Caucasus, etc. And in the second half - Central and North America, the Arabian Peninsula, Turkey, central Russia, Caucasus, Krasnodar Territory, Crimea, Ukraine, Malaysia, China, Bangladesh, Burma, Thailand, etc.
August eclipses will determine stress zones: in the first half - South and North America, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, North and Western Europe, Siberia, etc.; in the second half - Central and South America, Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, Algeria, Libya, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Nepal, Bhutan, Mongolia, etc.
According to other indicators, significant events can occur in the following places: in North America, Alaska, the Pacific Ocean, the European part of Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Belarus, Spain, Italy, Egypt, Iraq, Thailand, Mexico, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Serbia, Canada, Ethiopia.
There is still a possibility of major earthquakes in the United States, in the waters of the Black and Mediterranean Seas, the echoes of which can reach Belarus. Unfavorable resonant dates, before and after which geoclimatic revolutions and man-made accidents can occur: January 1, March 3 and 30, April 6-10, 20, 28, May 3, 25, June 9, July 1, 3-4, 13, August 25, September 9, 16, 28, November 22, December 3-4, 19, 23.
According to the AstroGEO laboratory of the Avestan school of astrology, general trends will affect Belarus to one degree or another.
Today we will discuss what will happen in Belarus in 2017. As the predictions come true, I will add links to news resources next to the prediction. So add the page to your browser bookmarks ... It will be interesting!
The overall well-being of the country will grow from February 2017, the results of 2017 will be much more fruitful than the last 2.5-3 years. Confirmation #1. This will be especially noticeable after September 22, 2017, when all the planets line up successfully for Belarus.
From September 22, luck will smile on the sphere of domestic trade, media and transport. 2017 will be fruitful and successful for agriculture.
Also, since the autumn of 2017, the birth rate may increase in the country. And the government's patronage of the education system will increase.
So, what exactly can be said about the horoscope of Belarus for 2017.
All in all, the year will bring Big changes in the state apparatus, tangible for officials and those responsible for the internal world order. Forecast confirmation.
Until February 12, 2017, the country can get a good loan. Forecast confirmation. February and early March will be good for the government, which will strengthen its position and be able to show its strength and influence. Confirmation #1.
March 2017 in the horoscope of Belarus for 2017 will be difficult for the economy and the prestige of our country may suffer in the eyes of neighboring countries.
Astrologer, researcher and educator. Author of many successful public forecasts for presidents, politicians, countries and prominent people. A frequent guest of TV shows and radio broadcasts on astrological topics. Author of the book "Astrology of Pregnancy". Over 8 years experience.
Astrologer Tatyana Kalinina
The end of March - mid-May 2017 will give events in the field of foreign partnerships, immigration issues or foreigners. Forecast confirmation.
A period when we can all feel difficulties, dissatisfaction, emotional confusion and displeasure.
From May 18, 2017 to July 3, the situation will improve and stabilize. A favorable period will be created for education, science, sports, culture and creative professions.
August 25 - October 13 will be significant for the President of Belarus. These will be important negotiations on cooperation with foreign partners.
October 13 - November 2, 2017 - important decisions in foreign policy, continuation of the previous topic and getting a result.
In November-December, the issues of lending to the country and obtaining additional profit will again become relevant. The time of changes in the life of the working class, civil servants - the military and doctors.
Next year will begin a period of rethinking and maturation of the nation. The country will develop its clear lines in the field international relations, internal trade, economy and in matters of power.
In general, 2017 will be more successful than the previous period in financial matters, as well as in matters of economic growth and foreign policy. Confirmation .
I hope that the favorable arrangement of stars for Belarus is realized to the maximum for all of us!
Astrologer Tatyana Kalinina.
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Considering the astrological chart of the President of Belarus for 2017, astrologer Svetlana Dragan drew attention to the extraordinary properties of his personality - super-responsibility, thrift, commitment to history, but at the same time, a pronounced independence, which sometimes has a paradoxical character.
“Now our leaders personify historical processes, and here their astrological charts are in some kind of contradiction. As for Alexander Lukashenko, everything in his chart looks like some kind of serious internal metamorphosis. On February 26, we will have a solar eclipse, and this is always a complete radical reversal as internal and external positions," Dragan said.
The astrologer suggested that at the end of February the Belarusian leader could surprise everyone internal transformation and changing political opinions. The same trend will continue in March 2017.
"Somewhere around March 13, there is a possibility of some drastic steps, which in their consequences can quite boldly transform financial and legal relations both domestically and in foreign policy. To this will be added the period around April 8th. And all this will give out a new, extraordinary economic direction in a common chord," the astrologer said.
Dragan noted that Uranus has the strongest influence in the astrological chart of the Belarusian leader for 2017. it revolutionary turning point, which always carries with it unpredictable steps. At the same time, a constructive position is visible in the map of the Russian leader, which does not exclude difficulties, tension and losses during 2017.
“The leader of Russia is forced to preserve his interests. And it may seem to the leader of Belarus that this is a kind of militaristic position. Therefore, the steps that will continue to be taken in Belarus will be more directed towards the West,” the astrologer noted.
The astrologer called the most difficult period of the year June, this month the partner mood of Belarus may be oriented towards Western countries.
"Here is the possibility of some alliances, economic, economic, political. Most likely, Belarus will move in this direction, and move quite actively," the astrologer said.
Listen to a conversation with the popular Russian astrologer Svetlana Dragan about the immediate fate of Belarusian-Russian relations and possible changes in the political moods of Lukashenka and Putin on radio Sputnik Belarus.
