The calculation of the population of the city is carried out according to the formula:
The total population of the city, people;
The size of the city-forming group, people;
Specific gravity service group, %;
Share of non-active population, %.
The size of the city-forming group is defined as the total number of workers in industry, external transport, construction organizations, research institutes and design institutes, as well as 25% of the number of full-time students of universities and 15% of the number of students of technical schools and vocational schools.
Thus, the size of the city-forming group is:
The proportion of the service group is, as a rule, 18-25% (we accept 25%), and the proportion of the non-active population, taking into account the expansion of the city's territories, is 40-46% (we accept 44%). So the total population is:
According to the data of the individual task, we calculate the population living in areas with different building heights:
The size of the main areas of the city (according to the preliminary balance) is calculated by the formula:
Where is the area of the territory, ha;
Population depending on the number of storeys of the building, people;
HC - specific size of an element of the territory of a residential area, m 2 / person.
Based on table 2 of the guidelines, we determine the areas of the elements residential areas, city-wide centers, green spaces, storage areas, enterprises and structures of the communal farm, forest parks, etc.
For example, the area of residential blocks is for a 4-storey building:
The area of the territory of residential streets and roads takes 16-18% (we accept 16%) of the total area of the residential area and is respectively:
The area of territories of universities, technical schools and vocational schools is determined depending on the number of students according to table 3 guidelines. All results obtained are recorded in Table 1.
Table 1 - Preliminary balance of the city territory
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Territories |
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1. Residential areas residential areas; institutions and pr th service; Green spaces; residential streets and squares; Kom.-khoz. Ave and garages. 2. Citywide centers 3. Green spaces 4. Territories of streets and roads |
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5. Industrial 6. Construction organizations 7. Research institutes and design institutes 8. Universities, technical schools and vocational schools 9. Warehouse 10. External transport 11. Sanitary protection zones 12. Enterprises and facilities of the KP Water intake and treatment facilities Plumbing; sewerage treatment facilities; Landfills for household waste; Flower and greenhouse economy; Nurseries of green spaces; KP service establishments. 13. Forests and forest parks 14. Agricultural land 15. Cemeteries 16. Reserve For residential area; For the industrial area. |
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Total in the city according to preliminary calculation: |
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Total for the city according to the project balance: |
Agricultural lands make up 20% of:
residential area + industrial area + sanitary protection zones + external transport area.
Biysk was located near the Altai Mountains and its minerals. The development of Biysk was also influenced by trade with Mongolia after the construction of a horse-drawn road through Kosh-Agach. The growth of Irkutsk was especially favorably influenced by the proximity to Baikal, the presence of rich hunting grounds and fertile lands, as well as deposits of salt and iron.
The discovery of Siberian gold deposits in the first quarter of the 19th century was a powerful impetus for the development of Tomsk, Krasnoyarsk, Mariinsk, Yeniseisk, and Chita. There were offices of gold miners, workers were hired, supplies and tools were prepared, commission agents, contractors associated with the mines acted. Cities experienced periodic influxes of mining people. For example, in the official report on Chita in the middle of the 19th century, it was noted: “There is a large confluence of workers in the city in the autumn, precisely in October, after the workers leave the mines, but they are immediately hired again at the gold mines and their smallest number remains in Chita. ". It was gold, before running out, that built and adorned these cities. In the development of the urban economy under the influence of gold mining, activation began construction activities. Capital began to flow here, the population began to arrive and vigorous trade rushed. However, the same gold industry led to the complete decline of handicraft production in Yeniseisk. The city turned into a supply center for taiga mines. Wealthy citizens furnished their houses beautifully. But even today we have a lot of options on how to create comfort in the house. For example, you can buy glossy furniture for your rooms. Even the provincial Krasnoyarsk, despite the fact that it was the seat of many gold miners and the center of management of the fields, over the years was decorated with only "a few churches and private buildings, but far from received the development that could be expected from the confluence of favorable circumstances."
The gold mining industry caused a new upsurge in practical research on the territory of Siberia. Simultaneously with the search for gold, there was an accumulation of information about the presence of other natural resources. In the taiga regions, remote from the established framework of settlement, numerous mining settlements were formed, which were connected by a new network of roads with the central settlements of the regions. At this stage of the formation of a network of settlements, simultaneously with the process of accumulating socio-economic potential in the main urban centers, there was a process of dispersal of settlements along new, secondary planning axes directed from the main strip of settlement to the hinterland.
The proportion of the urban population of Siberia, which, however, had a constant growth trend, was at the level of the outlying regions of the European part of Russia: 7.2% in 1858, 8.5% in 1897, 11% in 1914. At the end of the 19th century, the city had an average of 8.2, and in 1917 12.2 thousand inhabitants. Almost until the end of the 19th century, urban growth was moderate. Even a city like Irkutsk, which played the role of a leading center, grew slowly. In 1836, its population was about 20 thousand people, by the time of the reform of 1861 - 25, and by 1897 - 51.5 thousand inhabitants.
One type of arithmetic mean is the chronological mean. Calculated from the totality of the values of the attribute at different moments or for different periods of time, it is customary to call average chronological used to find the average level in time series.
Unlike the variational series, which characterizes the change in phenomena in space, the dynamic series is a series of numbers that characterizes the change in phenomena over time. Sometimes they are called temporal or chronological. Depending on the type of time series, appropriate methods for calculating the average chronological value can be applied to determine their average levels. So, when an average level is generated in a periodic series of dynamics, it is possible to use an arithmetic mean, simple or weighted. If it is necessary to calculate average level moment series of dynamics with equal time intervals between moments, it is advisable to use the technique average chronological moment series at equal intervals:
where are the ordinal levels of the moment series; n is the number of moments in the series.
For example, in an agricultural organization (ACO) at the beginning of each month in 2010, there was the following number of pigs:
Conventionally, it is considered that the intervals (intervals) of time between the initial moments (dates) of each previous and subsequent month are equal to each other. Therefore, formula (6.5) can be applied to calculate the average quarterly number of pigs.
Substitute the corresponding data and get:
This means that on average monthly in the first quarter of 2010 there were 717 heads of pigs in agricultural enterprises.
In cases where it is necessary to determine the average level of the moment series of dynamics with at irregular intervals between moments, the weighted arithmetic mean formula (6.4) is usually used.
For example, the number of employees in the SHO team was: on April 1 - 20 people, on April 11 -25, on April 30 - 36 people. It is necessary to calculate the average monthly number of employees in the brigade for April.
As can be seen from the given data, the time intervals between the indicated moments (dates) are not equal to each other: it can be assumed that there were 20 people in the brigade for 1 day, 25 people for 10 days, 36 people for 19 days. Therefore, to calculate the average monthly number workers in the brigade, we use the formula (6.4) and get:
Thus, in April there were an average of 32 workers in the SHO brigade.
In the system of the agro-industrial complex, the average chronological value can be used in calculating the average annual, quarterly, monthly number of employees, the number of different types and groups of farm animals, the presence of various types of machine and tractor fleet, and in other cases.
(at the beginning of 2000)
Even higher differences in the degree of concentration of the urban population in the subjects of the Federation. More than 90% of the urban population in the Magadan region (92.0%), in the Murmansk region (91.9%), in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (91.2%); the minimum indicators are in the Chechen Republic (23.5%), in the Republic of Altai (25.5%), in the Komi-Permyak Autonomous Okrug (25.8%).
The process of increasing the role of cities is called urbanization. Urbanization entails suburbanization - growth and development around large cities and their satellite cities, which form agglomerations.
At present, the process of urbanization is going on more and more intensively - the spread of urban forms and living conditions to the countryside. In the broad sense of the word, urbanization is integral part urbanization.
Rural population Russia is 27%.
Accommodation rural settlements depends on natural and geographical factors, primarily on soil and climatic conditions. The highest concentration of the rural population is in the North Caucasian (45.1%) and Central Black Earth (37.4%) economic regions, where there are the most favorable conditions for agricultural production.
Urban and rural populations differ in demographic characteristics. AT countryside lower average life expectancy, higher birth and death rates, a higher proportion of the elderly population, which affects the increase in mortality and the decrease in average life expectancy (Table 5.4).
Table 5.5.
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The chronological average is the average level of a series of dynamics, i.e.
e. average, calculated on the totality of the values of the indicator at different moments or periods of time.
Depending on the type of time series, various methods of its calculation are used, namely, the calculation of the average chronological interval series and the average chronological moment series.
The average chronological interval (more common) series is the average value of the levels of the interval series of dynamics, which is calculated by the formula:
where is the average level of the series;
- the level of a series of dynamics;
- the number of members of the series
For example, consider data on children's health facilities in Pskov and the region.
Table. Children's health institutions
The series under study is an interval one, using the chronological average formula, we can calculate the average number of health facilities:
institutions.
The average chronological moment series is the average value of the levels of the moment series of dynamics. If there is a function expressing the change in the moment indicator over time, then for the time from to the average chronological moment series is equal to:
However, as a rule, there are no data on continuous observation of the value at the disposal of statistics. Therefore, depending on the nature of the change in the indicator and the available data, different methods of calculation are used.
With equal time intervals between the dates for which data are available, and a uniform change in the size of the indicator between dates, the chronological average of the moment series is usually calculated by the formula:
where is the level of the series;
is the number of all members of the series;
- average level.
If the time periods separating one date from another are not equal to each other, then the average chronological moment series is calculated using the weighted arithmetic average formula, the weights of which are taken as time intervals between dates, i.e., according to the formula:
where is the time during which the given level of the series remained unchanged.
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The subject and main tasks of socio-economic statistics
The subject of socio-economic statistics (SES) is the quantitative side of mass social and economic phenomena inextricably linked with their qualitative content in specific conditions of place and time
the main tasks of SES.
1. Statistical observation of the activities of all subjects of the country's economy at all stages of the reproduction cycle (production of goods and services; formation and distribution of primary income; redistribution of income; use of income for final consumption and formation of savings; use of savings for accumulation).
A comprehensive study of the state and development of the economy of the country and its regions (reproduction of fixed assets, investment activity, dynamics of national wealth, characteristics of the labor market, rates economic growth, growth rates of labor productivity, price indices and inflation rate, deficit (surplus) of the state budget, level public debt and etc.).
3. A comprehensive study of the state and development of the social sphere of the country and its regions (vital population, infant mortality, life expectancy, household income and consumption, nominal and real wage indices, real disposable cash income, social stratification of society, the dynamics of poverty, etc.). 4. Analysis of macroeconomic proportions (for example, between production and consumption, accumulation and consumption, growth in labor productivity and growth in the average wages and etc.).
5. Analysis of trends, patterns throughout the country and individual regions (decrease in the death rate, growth in the birth rate, dynamics of employment and unemployment, dynamics of inflation, growth in labor productivity and consumer prices, dynamics of poverty level, etc.), as well as types of economic activity (dynamics of the number of enterprises and organizations, including small and medium-sized enterprises, dynamics of production volume and turnover of goods and services, reduction material costs and energy intensity, profit growth and reduction of unprofitable production, growth in labor productivity and average wages, rising producer prices, etc.).8
6. Improvement of systems of indicators that characterize socio-economic phenomena and processes, classifications (classifiers), their consistency and interconnection, methods for evaluating individual indicators.
7. Improving the methodology for analyzing socio-economic phenomena and processes, including the methodology of national accounting.
8. Providing authorities government controlled demanded information on the socio-economic development of the country and its regions for taking measures to reduce their intensity).
9. Providing heads of enterprises and companies, managers, organizers of production and businessmen with information about the development of the economy and the social sphere, necessary for studying the external environment in which their companies or enterprises operate, when making decisions on investments, expanding production , sales organizations, etc.
10. Informing the public, educational and research institutions and other organizations and individuals on the main results and trends of the socio-economic development of the country and its regions.
11. Providing information on the state and development of the Russian economy to international organizations: the UN, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), The World Bank and etc.
12. Introduction of new technologies for the collection, processing, transmission and dissemination of statistical information, etc.
Methods for calculating the average annual population.
the choice of the method of its calculation depends on the initial data.
1. If data are available at the beginning (S1) and the end of the period (S2), then the average population is determined by the simple arithmetic mean formula:
3. If the intervals between the dates are not equal, then the calculation by the weighted arithmetic mean method:
To characterize the change population in time are used:
1. population growth rate:
2. population growth rate:
Having determined the population size, the SES studies its composition using the method groupings which is carried out on:
the social composition
areas of activity and sectors of the economy,
professions
age,
marital status,
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Basic concepts and indicators
| Basic concepts of demographic statistics | |
| Census | Demographic qualification intended to characterize demographic situation in the country. In Russia, continuous population censuses were conducted in 1920, 1926, 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989 and 2002. |
| Microcensus | Conducted between population censuses, usually covers 5% of the population (for example, the census in Russia in 1994) |
| Age-sex pyramids | Graphic image that allows you to visually display the age and sex composition of the population |
| Vital movement of the population | Population change due to births and deaths |
| natural growth(decrease) population | Positive (negative) difference between the number of births and deaths:  , where N- the number of births; M- number of deaths |
| Mechanical increase (decrease) of the population (balance of migration) | Positive (negative) difference between the number of arrived and departed population:  , where P AT |
| Migration | The movement of people (migrants) across the borders of territories with a change of residence forever or for a certain time. Migration can be internal and external |
| Internal migration | Movement of population within a certain territory |
| External migration | Movement of population across territorial boundaries |
| Gross migration (gross migration) | Shows the total number of migrating residents: P + V. This indicator is also called migration turnover. |
| Balance of migration | The difference between the number of arrivals and departures: P - V |
| Immigration | Entry of a population into a particular area or country |
| Emigration | Departure of the population from a given area or country |
Continuation of the table. 3.1
| Population indicators (categories) in censuses | |
| Current population (HH) | Category of the population that unites people actually located at the time of the census in this locality: NN \u003d PN - VO + VP, where Mon- permanent population IN- temporarily absent; VP - temporary residents |
| Permanent population (PN) | Category of the population that unites people for whom this settlement represents their place of usual residence, regardless of their actual location at the time of registration (census): PN \u003d NN - VP + VO |
| Temporarily absent (VO) | These are persons who permanent place residence in this locality, which are not available at the time of registration. Their absence should not exceed 6 months |
| Temporary residents (TP) | These are persons who are at the time of registration in this locality, but have a permanent place of residence in another locality |
| Population figures | |
| Population at the end of the year | , where S n.g N- number of births; M- the number of deaths; P- the number of arrivals in this settlement; AT- the number of those who left the given settlement |
| Average annual population | For a certain date for equal periods is calculated by the formula  , where n– number of levels (dates); S 1…
P is the population at a certain date. At the beginning and end of the year is defined as the arithmetic mean:  , where S n.g– population at the beginning of the year; S k.g is the population at the end of the year.
In an interval series with unequally spaced levels, it is determined by the formula , where is the average population i-th period; – duration i-th period |
Continuation of the table. 3.1
Continuation of the table. 3.1
The end of the table. 3.1
