In working with people, you are an investor. It is necessary to sell those shares that are falling in price, and buy those that have growth potential. In this case, you are investing your time. You create your team and invite people to your business who will be your deputies and leaders in your sponsored structures and head your branches in different regions. But if these deputies are weak, then nothing will work. If you want to build large structures, you must select strong leaders, and not waste time training weak workers.
If you give your distributor a task and he doesn't complete it, and this is repeated regularly, you should get rid of such an employee and no longer waste your time on him. In no case should you persuade, offer to do something for him, etc. You persuaded him at the presentation, when he doubted whether to cooperate with you, you persuaded him to call friends, you persuaded him to buy a product, etc. All this does not apply to leaders. Leaders become in difficulties, and not in greenhouse conditions.
It is enough for someone to show the mechanism of work once - and he will immediately get to work, for someone you can not show anything - and he will do everything himself, but for someone you can show it several times, but this will not give any positive results.
1. The site of freelancers fiverr.com, where you can order any service for $5.
2. We must try not to get subscribers as cheaply as possible, but to sell for the largest possible amount. If you can sell each subscriber a product of your company for a large amount, it will not matter to you at all how much this subscriber cost you.
3. Conducting a one-minute presentation: "I help my target audience get results, even if ...". That is, you need to be able to sell yourself - this is an opportunity to briefly tell about yourself so that a person becomes interested in you and wants to communicate. For example: "I help my networkers start recruiting online, even if technically they are still at level zero." This is a kind of twisting (reinforcing) option.
4. Many networkers have their own "promoted" channels on Youtube. You can visit their channels, rewrite the titles of the most popular videos, and record your own videos with the same titles, filling them with your own content. You will know for sure that these topics are of interest to people, your videos will be shown in the search among similar ones, that is, your video will have an increased chance of being viewed.
6. All these techniques can also be used in other social networks.
TASK FOR THE LESSON
Answer the following questions:
1. Do you have a personal history? (In a written form).
2. Do you continue to attract new members every month?
3. How many active first lines do you have?
4. How many of them are in leading positions (director, leader, supervisor, etc., usually 5,000-10,000 points).
5. Do you hold planning meetings with your first lines?
6. Do you run regular schools for the structure?
7. Do you visit your regions at least once a year?
8. Do you have a clear work system?
9. Are you in control of your finances?
10. Do you do time planning?
11. Do you have a planned plan for the years ahead?
12. Do you have financial plan for 10-20 years?
13. Do you have insurance and savings programs?
14. Do you have investments?
15. Do you have goals that motivate you?
16. Do you find time to relax?
17. Do you find time to communicate with loved ones (with your family)?
18. Do you go abroad at least 1-2 times a year?
19. Can you delegate?
20. Can you say "no"?
21. How do you respond to difficulties?
22. How do you feel about public speaking?
23. Do you know how to "resolve" conflicts?
24. Do you have advantages and achievements that make you interesting to people?
25. Can you go against the opinion of the majority if you are sure that you are right?
Many people have situations when some acquaintance meets on a social network, a conversation starts, and he asks about your field of activity. Or, for example, a person whom you recently added as a friend is interested in why you offered him your friendship. It happens that on your page they saw a photo from some presentation or awards and ask you to tell about this event.
How is it necessary to communicate with these people in order to competently interest them in your offer and attract them to work in your company?
1. You can send this person an email with your marketing plan or commercial proposal.
2. You can send him a video lasting no more than 2-3 minutes with a recording of some seminars, trainings, conferences.
3. Invite him to chat on Skype or by phone, that is, try to switch to more convenient communication and make a presentation online.
4. You can invite a candidate to a presentation webinar / program.
6. If you live in the same city, you can try to make an appointment right away.
WHICH OF THESE OPTIONS IS BETTER AND MORE EFFECTIVE?
About 10-20 years ago John Kalench's book "The Best You Can Be in MLM" was very popular. According to the principle of John Kalench, the most effective formula was "Yes - No - Next". Over the past years, the modern market has changed a lot, and this formula, alas, is no longer relevant. It just doesn't work, as the network marketers themselves admit. We used to invite an interested person to a meeting, make a presentation and ask if he wants to work with us. Now people can subscribe, agree to cooperate only at the second, third meeting, but not at the first. Therefore, none of the proposed options is effective.
It is necessary to conduct a whole series of calls, meetings, letters, videos, webinars, presentations, each time promising to tell something even more interesting at the next contact. That is, a multi-stage system of meetings should be built.
You can choose one option that is most suitable for you to attract people to your business and use it while it is most effective.
For example, let's take a look at one of the proposed recruiting options - a series of videos so that it can be effectively implemented.
WHAT SHOULD BE DONE TO IMPLEMENT THIS RECRUITTING METHOD?
1. Create a landing page with a subscription to four useful videos.
Landing(from English. landing- "landing, landing, subscription") is useful content consisting of one page, to which it is possible to subscribe by entering your registration data.
The number 4 is a symbol. There may be more or less of them. The main thing is that it should be a video cycle where you offer some useful content. For example, the first three videos are with a presentation, and the fourth is with an invitation to join your company or an invitation to a webinar.
Elite recruitment systems have a great influence on the social composition and quality characteristics members of the elite. There are two main recruiting systems: 1) the guild system; 2) entrepreneurial system. The main features of the guild system are as follows:
closeness;
Slow way up;
Many intermediate levels in career growth;
A large number of institutional filters (formal requirements for holding a position - party membership, age, education, work experience, social origin, positive characteristics of leadership, etc.);
A narrow circle of the selectorate (as a rule, members of a higher body who carry out selection - selection of candidates);
The tendency to reproduce an already existing type of leadership.
An example of this recruiting system is the Soviet nomenklatura system of the 1960-80s.
The entrepreneurial system is in many respects the opposite of the guild system and is characterized by higher competition, an increase in the importance of personal qualities, a small number of institutional filters, and a wide range of electors (electorate). This system prevails in all developed democracies.
Each system has its own advantages and disadvantages. It is believed that the entrepreneurial system is more flexible, open to innovation, well adapted to dynamism modern life. But it makes the political course of the state less predictable, increases the risks associated with a possible radical change in the course of the government (after the elections, the course of the government may turn 180 degrees). The guild system makes the behavior of the new leadership more predictable, reduces the likelihood of internal conflicts, but it can lead to bureaucratization, gerontocracy (the power of the elderly), the formation of "families", "compatriots" and "clans". The process of formation of the power of the "Kremlin elders" in the USSR can be seen by referring to the table. At the same time, it must be borne in mind that the occupation of lower nomenklatura positions did not yet make a person a member of the political elite. The nomenklatura was a kind of ruling class and a source of personnel for the formation of the political elite. During this period of Soviet history, people often reached political heights when they were already over 60 years old. M.S. Gorbachev, who became General Secretary of the Central Committee of the CPSU at the age of 54, was perceived as a very young man.
The “length” of a nomenklatura career in different periods of Soviet history (the average number of years of work before taking up the first nomenclature
positions)
By the mid 1970s. career variability was reduced: a certain checkpoint (“asset”) appeared, through which it was necessary to pass in order to be admitted to high-status positions. The role of such a "waiting room" was played by the position of the middle manager: deputy director, chief engineer, secretary of the party committee. By the mid 1970s. vertical mobility finally acquired the character of slow progress along a strictly adjusted career ladder. It became impossible to make a career without being a leader. The society became more and more closed. Unfulfilled mobility was a serious depressive factor, especially significant for career-oriented people. The higher their own social resources, the stronger the frustration. Any opportunity to change the situation had a special attraction: all expectations were refracted through the prism of upward mobility. In the 1970s and 80s "old" and the Komsomol. So, one of the last leaders of the Komsomol, Boris Pastukhov (the first secretary of the Komsomol from 1977 to 1982), took this post at the age of 44. In 1966, the average age of members of the Politburo was 58 years, and in 1981 it already exceeded 70. The average length of stay in the ministerial chair in 1980 exceeded 13 years. Another feature of the Soviet nomenklatura system was its clan structure, which took the form of compatriots. Around L.I. Brezhnev, the Dnepropetrovsk and Moldavian fraternities were formed, whose representatives once worked with him in Ukraine and Moldova, and after Brezhnev became General Secretary of the CPSU Central Committee, they took key positions in the party and government.
M.S. Gorbachev, having started perestroika (including the political system), failed to create his own team, made a lot of mistakes and, ultimately, lost power. An attempt to rely on the individual merits of the nominees in matters of personnel policy, ignoring their devotion to the head of state, turned out to be unsuccessful. Constantly changing personnel, M.S. Gorbachev never managed to form a team around himself. Under him, the transition from the system of guilds to the entrepreneurial system of recruiting elite members began, which was clearly demonstrated by the results of the elections of people's deputies of the USSR in 1989. In these elections, some of the deputies were elected, having gone through a real competitive struggle of candidates. The transition to the entrepreneurial system was finally carried out under B.N. Yeltsin. Free elections of parliamentarians and regional leaders in the 1990s. radically changed the very system of recruiting the elite. Under B.N. Yeltsin, the political elite became "younger" (this was especially noticeable in the Government of the Russian Federation, when people under the age of 40 often found themselves in ministerial posts). Along with the pluses (energy, willingness to build market economy) such a sharp "rejuvenation" had many disadvantages. In power often turned out to be inexperienced, incompetent people.
During the presidency of V.V. In general, Putin still retains the entrepreneurial system, but there are already signs of a return to the guild system. It is no coincidence that political scientists begin to talk about a pronounced clan system, as in the Brezhnev era, about the dominance of the so-called "St. Petersburg", which are represented by associates of V.V. Putin for work in the mayor's office of St. Petersburg and in the state security agencies. The St. Petersburg community became more numerous than the community in the period of L.I. Brezhnev. In principle, the entrepreneurial system does not exclude the existence of the President's team, whose members are selected by him personally, taking into account, among other things, the previous experience of joint work. But when the team has been in power for decades, when access to the elite for new people is reduced to a minimum, and instead of personnel rotation, top officials are “transplanted” from one chair to another, and when personal loyalty completely replaces business qualities, then there is a clear threat of a return to the guild system. Moreover, top management modern Russia tende are noted nci and, not peculiar even to the nomenklatura era. We are talking about family and marital ties, which are associated with some members of the government. This kind of "nepotism" was unusual for the Soviet elite. Nor is it characteristic of developed democratic states with an entrepreneurial system of recruiting the elite.
26. Political leadership: essence, theories and typologies.
The issue of political leadership richest history research. Already in ancient mythology, leaders were endowed with supernatural qualities. The view of history as the result of the actions of rulers has long been dominant in historiography. These positions were held by the thinkers of antiquity (they endowed the ruler with various extraordinary qualities), noble historiography (change of ruler - change of era), medieval theologians (history is created by God through the actions of kings), etc. Similar views were also held by bourgeois thinkers: N. Machiavelli, recognizing the role of the masses, he left the leading positions in politics to the leader. Hegel wrote that the goals pursued by great people contain the moment of the universal. T. Carlyle believed that the leaders lead the "stupid crowd." G. Tarde emphasized that all the achievements of civilization are the result of the activities of great leaders. Although ideas were expressed about the growing role of the masses in history (G. Lebon), but the masses in this case were presented as "a crowd following the leader." Similar views were expressed by the Russian Narodniks.
The modern concepts of political leadership were most influenced by the Marxist approach to the problem of the individual and the masses in history, the idea of leadership developed by 3. Freud and his followers. In modern political science, there are many approaches to understanding the essence of leadership. The most common are:
Theory of traits (E. Bogardus). Leadership is seen as a purely socio-psychological phenomenon. A leader is a person who has a special combination of such traits as intelligence, character, organizational skills, sociability, tact, a sense of humor, the ability to attract attention, etc. The social nature of leadership is ignored here, it is argued that a set of these traits makes a person leader automatically.
2. Situational approach (E. Fromm, D. Riesman). Leadership depends on the specific situation. Given the current situation, a person with certain traits can become a leader. In another situation, he will never become one. Accordingly, the leader develops in himself qualities that meet the conjuncture or “situational demand”, and is a kind of weather vane that acts according to circumstances. Rejecting the independence of the individual, the leader is doomed to passivity, submission to conditions in order to preserve his career.
3. Functionalism (D. Edinger). Leadership is a position in society that is characterized by the ability of one person to direct and organize the collective behavior of all its members. The leader, by virtue of his abilities, assumes a number of important functions in society: management, regulation, control of political relations. This theory does not take into account the fact that certain conditions and opportunities are needed to realize the abilities of an individual.
4. The theory of the determining role of followers (F. Stanford). A leader always has followers. The nomination of a leader depends on the support of the group. A leader is a tool in the hands of a group that put forward him to protect their interests and turns him into a puppet, acting to the needs of the crowd and according to its criteria. It is not the analysis of the active leader that acquires the main significance, but his followers. Without revealing the essence of leadership, this theory reveals quite fully the main reason for the weakening of leadership.
5. Compensatory theory of politics Rasma! solves the problem of leadership on the basis of psychoanalysis (A. Adler, G. Lasswell). Leadership, or rather the desire for leadership, is presented as a desire to compensate for one's personal inferiority in some area (physical, mental, moral, etc.). The struggle for power (respectively, for leadership) is seen as a struggle for self-affirmation, for achieving leading positions in society in order to compensate for all one's experiences. History knows such examples, but they do not follow from an objective pattern.
6. Psychological interpretation (3. Freud). At the heart of social life lies the psyche, and any person strives for power. But this desire of people manifests itself in varying degrees. Leaders are obsessed with the will to power. And leadership is a certain kind of insanity, as a consequence of neurosis. A number of political leaders were neurotic, but this does not yet follow a pattern. Society is divided into mentally normal people and leaders (neurotic).
7. The "synthetic" approach to leadership in Western political science comes down to overcoming the one-sidedness of previous concepts. However, by combining various points of view and refusing to analyze them objectively, his followers cannot create a single, internally consistent theory of leadership. Combining sometimes opposite approaches, they get only an eclectic concept that does not give anything new.
8. Domestic political science is characterized by a slightly different approach to the problem of political leadership.
The very concept of "leader" in translation from English means a leading, authoritative member of an organization or a small group. In understanding the essence of leadership, it is important to find out the reasons for the emergence of a leader in the political arena.
First, the traditional functioning of the institution of political leadership in a given society, when another leader comes to replace the leader (due to inheritance, continuity, or other reasons). A democratic society presupposes the existence of a wide circle of leaders who, constantly competing with each other, replace each other.
Secondly, the emergence of a political leader is due to certain socio-political conditions that are developing in the country. This is usually associated with various kinds of social crises and social upheavals leading to a change of power.
The political leader performs a number of functions in society. American political scientist R. Tucker highlights the following:
1. Leaders carry out the function of evaluation, i.e., they provide a timely and comprehensive analysis of the current situation.
2. Leaders develop a line of conduct, develop a program of action to achieve their goals.
3. Leaders perform a mobilizing function, i.e., they seek mass support in the implementation of the planned action plan.
4. The leader makes the decision. Analyzing changes in the political situation, he determines the promising ways of development of the political process and directs the entire social activities in this vein.
Acting as an active subject of politics and being the direct bearer of political power, the leader, in fact, has a huge impact on political life. AT modern society leadership is a way of forming power based on the integration of various groups to solve the problems and tasks of social development through the implementation of the program put forward by the leader.
In accordance with this, we can say that leadership exists at three social levels, where various tasks are solved.
Leadership at the level of a small group united by political interests. It directs and organizes the actions of this group. The personal qualities of a leader are of primary importance here: the ability to make decisions, take responsibility, etc. This leadership is inherent in all societies. The leader performs an integrative function.
Leadership at the level of political movements in the context of the claims to power of specific social groups. It is not narrow group interests that matter here, but the general social status. Significance for the nomination of a leader is already not only his personal qualities, but also the ability to reflect the interests of the social environment that nominated him. The leader performs not only an integrative, but also a pragmatic function, expressed in the development of a program of action. And this level of leadership manifests itself in any society.
Leadership as a way of organizing power within the framework of the whole society, but subject to the existence of civil society, the separation of powers, as well as the social class division of society. This is the most high level leadership and exists only under specified conditions. It presupposes mutual satisfaction of the interests of both the leader and the “followers” (perhaps even illusory, imaginary). After all, there is a belief in the public mind that the actions of the leader bring benefits to both parties. The leader maintains his position not only with the help of legal regulation, but also with the moral and value regulators of his behavior. In addition to the integrative and pragmatic function, here the leader also performs a coordination function.
The considered levels of political leadership reveal the stages of formation of the political leader himself. It is at the third level that the leader becomes the real bearer of power and the creator of policy.
At this level, one can speak of leadership on a national scale, which is characterized by the following signs:
Remote leadership, i.e. the leader and his followers do not have direct contact;
Multi-role leadership, t.s. the leader is guided by the needs of his immediate environment, the political party, the bureaucratic executive machine, the entire population, and his task, therefore, is to maintain these interests in a certain balance;
Corporate leadership, albeit individual. In modern conditions, a leader is a product of "organized activity", a purely symbolic figure, he acts within the framework of certain prescriptions, established norms, and his roles are performed by other people, his headquarters (team), "executive elite". Leaders only personify the solutions developed by a team of people with professional knowledge.
Political leaders are nominated by certain social groups, and their role depends on the position of this group in society and on its support for the leader. A leader cannot make history on his own. Although, of course, political leaders, expressing the interests of certain groups of people, can have a significant impact on the course of events, the role of leaders is especially great in critical periods of development, when quick decision-making is required, the ability to correctly understand specific tasks.
What qualities are necessary for a leader to win and maintain his leading position in society? Without pretending to be complete, we will name only the main characteristics of a political leader. The leader must:
Take into account, express and defend the interests of a particular social group, put the interests of society above personal ones;
Have their own (or express group) political program;
To have the ability to organize the actions of the masses for the implementation of this program, to fight with their political rivals for the upholding and implementation of their program;
To be able to win the masses in order to secure popularity;
Have the time and opportunity to prove your leadership;
Constantly confirm their right to leadership with all their practical activities;
Possess a certain level of political culture;
Maintain your political face regardless of the presence of an official post or the loss of it;
To be an active participant in social relations, to influence their change;
Possess a set of certain personal qualities (erudition, correctness, vocational training, moral stability, will, determination, perseverance, sociability, oratorical skills, etc.).
Real political leaders are formed in political struggle. Each leader strives to have as many supporters as possible, to formalize himself, to enter the existing political system.
Based on the foregoing, a detailed definition of a political leader can be given.
A political leader is a person who leads his followers and exerts a permanent and dominant influence on the whole society or a particular political association when making decisions in order to realize his political interests.
The formation of a political leader in practice can be defined by the following stages:
1) the emergence of social movements and the selection of their leaders;
2) the formation of parties, the development of their program guidelines and organizational principles;
3) the formation of a hierarchy of party political leadership;
4) the struggle for power, the coming of the party to power, participation in government, the delegation of party leaders to senior government positions, the emergence of leadership leaders.
Many different approaches to the problem of leadership have given rise to an urgent need to develop typology leadership. A classic example of such a classification is the typology proposed by M. Weber, who distinguishes three types of leadership:
1. Traditional leadership, which is based on faith in the sanctity of traditions and customs. The authority of the leader is traditional and often inherited. This type of leadership is characteristic of the development of society in the pre-capitalist era.
2. Rational-legal leadership, which is based on faith in the legitimacy of the existing order, its "reasonableness". With this type, the political leader becomes a leader-bureaucrat, performing certain functions in the system. government controlled. Leadership becomes an instrument of law. The leader is nominated not for personal qualities or merit, but with the help of legal bureaucratic procedures, and his replacement is easily carried out. This type of leadership is characteristic of an "industrial" society. Its highest manifestation is the notorious nomenclature. This leadership is impersonal.
3. Charismatic leadership based on the belief in the supernatural features of the leader, his giftedness, uniqueness, the creation of a cult of personality. Endowing a leader with exceptional abilities also requires worshiping him. Unlike the two previous types, charismatic leadership arises during periods of crisis in the development of society, and then, as stabilization progresses, it transforms into traditional or rational-legal leadership.
The original approach to the ls-Areble ^e typology of leadership is offered by the American political scientist ^ I / Herman ^ who distinguishes 4 collective types of leader. /
1. The banner-bearer leader, who has his own vision of reality, puts forward his own Plan of Action. This leader has an idea for the sake of which the existing political system can be changed.
2. A servant leader who represents the interests of his adherents and acts on their behalf. He acts as a conductor of the ideas of his group and the executor of its tasks.
3. Leader-merchant, for whom his ability to convince is important. Thanks to this, the group “buys” his plans and becomes involved in their implementation. The main thing for such a leader is the ability to present his "product" (ie, his program).
4. A firefighter leader who responds quickly and in a timely manner to acute problems. This is a person who captures the needs of the moment, and due to this, takes a leading position.
An interesting approach is Pareto, who divided the leaders according to the methods of activity into lions and foxes.
You can classify leadership in terms of the mechanism of power or the role of the leader in the transformation of society (R. Tucker).
1. A copyservative leader opposes changes, slows down development, referring to traditions and established norms.
2. A reformer leader who believes in existing social ideals, sees a contradiction between them and practice, therefore calls on people to change their behavior.
3. A revolutionary leader not only rejects stereotypes, but also the ideals themselves, affirmed in society. These are leaders who call for and carry out changes in the socio-political system. At the breaks of society, the populist type of leader is activated.
G. Lasswell proposed his own classification based on the tendency of leaders to a certain model of behavior and singled out leaders - agitators, organizers and theorists.
Leadership can also be classified according to the degree of institutionalization: formal and informal.
The most extreme, perverted form of manifestation of leadership will be the cult of personality.
An expanded system of political leaders makes it possible to more fully elucidate the essence of leadership, to understand its features.
At its core, leadership is associated with the desire for power, and the way the leader disposes of this power largely determines the development of political relations in society, the formation of a certain type of political system.
The study of objectively existing connections between phenomena is the most important task of the general theory of statistics. In the process of statistical study of dependencies, causal relationships between phenomena are revealed, which makes it possible to identify factors (signs) that have a major impact on the variation of the studied phenomena and processes. Causal relationships are the connection of phenomena and processes, when a change in one of them is the cause. Leads to a change in the other - a consequence.
Of particular importance in the study of cause-and-effect relationships is the identification of a temporal sequence: the cause must always precede the effect, but not every previous event should be considered a cause, and the subsequent event should be considered a consequence.
In real socio-economic reality, cause and effect must be considered as related phenomena, the appearance of which is due to a complex of accompanying simpler causes and effects. Between complex groups of causes and effects, multi-valued relationships are possible, when one cause will be followed by one or another action or one action has several different reasons. Each phenomenon can act in some cases as a cause, and in others as a consequence.
But the more complex the phenomena being studied, the more difficult it is to identify cause-and-effect relationships between them. Mutual interweaving of various internal and external factors inevitably leads to some errors in determining cause and effect. Socio-economic phenomena are the result of the simultaneous influence of a large number of causes. Therefore, when studying these phenomena, it is necessary to identify the main, main causes, abstracting from secondary ones.
At the first stage of the statistical study of communication, a qualitative analysis of the phenomenon under study is carried out, associated with the analysis of the nature of a social or economic phenomenon using economic theory, sociology. The second stage is the construction of a communication model. It is based on statistical methods: groupings, averages, tables, etc. The third and last stage - the interpretation of the results - is again associated with the qualitative features of the phenomenon under study.
Statistics has developed many methods for studying relationships, the choice of which depends on the goals of the study and the tasks set. Signs according to their significance for the study of relationships are divided into two classes. Signs that cause changes in other related signs are called factorial or simply factors. Signs that change under the influence of factor signs are productive.
Connections between phenomena and their features are classified according to the degree of tightness of the connection, direction and analytical expression.
In statistics, a functional relationship and statistical dependence are distinguished. functional they call such a relationship in which a certain value of the factor attribute corresponds to one value of the effective attribute. The functional relationship is manifested in all cases of observation and for each unit of the studied population.
If causality does not appear in every separate case, and in general, the average for a large number of observations, then such a dependence is called statistical. A special case of communication is correlation a connection in which the change in the average value of the effective attribute is due to the change in factor signs.
According to the degree of closeness of the connection, depending on the value of the correlation coefficient, the following criteria for assessing the closeness of the connection are distinguished: the connection is practically absent, weak, significant, close.
In direction, there is a direct and reverse relationship. At direct connection with an increase or decrease in the values of the factor attribute, an increase or decrease in the values of the effective attribute occurs. Thus, the growth of labor productivity contributes to an increase in the level of profitability of production. When feedback the values of the resulting attribute change under the influence of the factor, but in the opposite direction compared to the change in the latter. Thus, with an increase in the level of capital productivity, the cost per unit of output decreases. social economic statistics
According to the analytical expression, connections are distinguished rectilinear(or simply linear) and curvilinear(non-linear). If the statistical relationship between phenomena can be approximately expressed by the equation of a straight line, then it is called linear connection; if it is expressed by the equation of any curve (parabola, hyperbola, power, exponential, exponential, etc.), then such a relationship is called non-linear or curvilinear.
According to the number of factors acting on the effective sign, the connections are distinguished one-factor(one factor) and multifactorial(two or more factors). One-factor (simple) relationships are usually called paired (since a pair of features is considered). For example, the correlation between profit and labor productivity. In the case of a multifactorial (multiple) connection, they mean that all factors act in a complex way, i.e. at the same time and in interconnection, for example, the correlation between labor productivity and the level of labor organization, production automation, worker qualifications, work experience, downtime and other factor characteristics.
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Subject economic analysis are causal relationships economic phenomena and processes.
Factor analysis allows you to establish cause-and-effect relationships of individual elements of these processes and to determine with sufficient certainty their possible consequences. This method has become quite widespread in economic research and is extensively covered in the literature. However, in works on forecasting institutions chemical industry it is used so far in extremely limited areas.
When developing the classification system, causal relationships between the factors of soil formation, on the one hand, and the structure and properties of soils, on the other hand, were taken into account.
There are causal relationships between the values of this section.
In economics, it is sometimes difficult to recognize cause and effect relationships. Consider two logical fallacies.
When in different countries the same causal relationships operate, then different methods from one country can be transferred to another.
Subject of analysis economic activity are causal relationships of economic phenomena and processes.
It should be borne in mind that causal relationships in economics are by no means self-evident, and the economist must substantiate the assertion that event A caused the subsequent event B.
They also lengthen the lag and weaken the causal relationship between changes in demand and price fluctuations.
Essential in cybernetics are only those causal relationships that are important in solving a given problem; the rest we have the right to ignore.
Therefore, geofiltration schematization should take into account the main causal relationships between the patterns of variability of the main factors in the formation of reserves and the features of the hydrodynamic and hydrochemical household flow structure. Identification and disclosure of these relationships is the key to the correctness of the transition from the natural to the geofiltration model of the field, as well as the fact that the schematization will not exclude any significant factors in the formation of reserves. In some cases, the exclusion of certain significant factors from the calculation models is carried out purposefully due to their insufficient knowledge, but at the same time, such an exclusion can be carried out only with an understanding and, if possible, at least a qualitative assessment of how such a simplification will affect the results of the forecast. In the general case, such simplifications are aimed at creating a certain safety margin in engineering solutions and, in principle, can be allowed only when they do not lead to distortion of other elements of the margin assessment when designing one of them with an engineering margin.
In general, factor models of profitability reveal the most important cause-and-effect relationships between indicators financial condition and financial results, they are used in forecasting financial stability organizations.
The subject of the analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise are cause-and-effect relationships of economic phenomena and processes. Objects - the economic results of financial and economic activities, namely: the volume of production and sales, the cost of products, services, financial results etc. The objectives of the analysis determine the structure and essence of the methodology as a research system used to study a particular object.
At the same time, Hume believed that the causal relationships of the real world cannot exist either a priori or a posteriori, which indicates the weakness of his methodological position. He believes that the subject takes for cause-and-effect relations at best only connected and, moreover, repetitive relations of contiguity and succession; he ascribes the necessary connection only to the relations between events.
This is expressed in the fact that causal relationships of change productive forces and production relations are increasingly determined consciously, on the basis of scientific substantiation of their development trends. In addition, the operation of this law is increasingly connected with the laws in force under socialism. This is manifested in the fact that planning encompasses not only the economic but also the social processes of the development of mature socialism.
The study of objectively existing links between socio-economic phenomena and processes is the most important task of the theory of statistics. In the process of statistical study of dependencies, causal relationships between phenomena are revealed, which makes it possible to identify factors (signs) that have a major impact on the variation of the studied phenomena and processes.
causal relationship- this is a connection of phenomena and processes, in which a change in one of them - the cause - leads to a change in the other - the effect.
Socio-economic phenomena are the result of the simultaneous action of a large number of causes. Therefore, when studying these phenomena, it is necessary to identify the main, main causes, abstracting from secondary ones.
HS based first stage The statistical study of relationships is based on a qualitative analysis based on the study of the nature of a social or economic phenomenon by the methods of economic theory, sociology, and concrete economics.
Second phase - building a communication model based on statistical methods: groupings, averages, correlation and regression methods of analysis, etc.
Third stage - interpretation of the results is associated with the qualitative features of the phenomenon under study.
Statistics has developed many methods for studying relationships between features. The choice of a specific method depends on the cognitive purpose and objectives of the study.
According to their essence and significance for the study of the relationship, signs are divided into effective and factorial.
Effective are called signs that change under the influence of factor signs, and factorial - signs that cause changes in other related signs.
In statistics, functional and stochastic dependencies are distinguished.
functional they call such a dependence in which a certain value of a factor attribute corresponds to one and only one value of the resultant attribute.
Stochastic dependency manifests itself not in each individual case, but in general, on average, with a large number of observations.
correlation is a special case of a stochastic relationship, in which the change in the average value of the effective feature is due to the change in factor features.
Relationships between phenomena and their features are classified according to the degree of tightness, direction and analytical expression.
The degree of closeness of communication estimated using correlation coefficients (Table 7.1).
Table 7.1. Criteria for assessing the closeness of the connection
In direction, there is a direct and reverse relationship.
Straight A relationship is called a relationship in which with an increase or decrease in the values of one attribute, an increase or decrease in the values of another attribute occurs. In this case, there are two options for interpreting the direct relationship between features. For example, an increase in the volume of construction and installation works by type economic activity"Construction" increases profits construction company; reducing the material consumption of products helps to reduce its cost.
Reverse A relationship is called a relationship in which with an increase or decrease in the values of one attribute, a decrease or increase in the values of another attribute occurs. For example, a decrease in the cost of a unit of manufactured products entails an increase in profitability.
According to the analytical expression, rectilinear (or simply linear) and non-linear relationships are distinguished.
If the statistical relationship between features is described by a straight line equation
then they call her linear connection.
If the statistical relationship between features is described by any non-linear function, such as a parabola
or hyperbole
then such a connection is called non-linear.
To determine the relationship between features in statistics, methods are used:
Parallel data reduction method based on a comparison of two or more series of statistical values. Such a comparison allows you to establish the presence of a connection and get an idea of its nature.
Example. Data are available on local budget revenues and the number of municipalities subjects of the Far East federal district(Table 7.2). Using the method of bringing parallel data, we will determine the relationship between these indicators.
Table 7.2. The main indicators of municipalities in the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2010
Based on the data in Table. 7.2 we will build a series of data given by ranking (ordering) the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District by the number of municipalities. Accordingly, we put down the values of local budget revenues (Table 7.3).
Table 7.3. The given data on the main indicators of municipalities in the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2010
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Subject |
Number of municipalities X. |
Local budget revenues wow mln rub. |
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1. Sakhalin region |
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2. Jewish Autonomous Region |
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3. Magadan region |
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4. Chukotka Autonomous Okrug |
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5. Kamchatka |
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6. Primorsky Krai |
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7. Khabarovsk Territory |
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8. Amur Region |
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9. Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) |
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According to Table. 7.3 it can be observed that with an increase in the number of municipalities, local budget revenues generally also increase. The exceptions are the Sakhalin Oblast (25 municipalities account for 27,211 million rubles of local budget revenues) and the Amur Region, the least profitable (316 municipalities account for 14,921 million rubles of local budget revenues). It can be assumed that the relationship between the studied features is direct.
Method of analytical groupings allows you to identify the direction of the relationship between features. A factorial attribute acts as a grouping attribute. Each selected group is characterized by a change in the average value of the effective feature.
Graphic method used to depict the relationship of two features using the correlation field. In the coordinate system, the values of the factor attribute are plotted on the abscissa axis, and the resulting attribute is plotted on the ordinate axis. Each intersection of lines drawn through these axes is indicated by a dot. In the absence of close connections, there is a random arrangement of points on the graph. The stronger the connection between the signs, the more closely the points will be grouped around a certain line expressing the shape of the connection (Fig. 7.1).
Correlation - this is a statistical relationship between random variables that does not have a strictly functional character, in which a change in one of the random variables leads to a change in the mathematical expectation of the other.
Rice. 7.1.
In statistics, it is customary to distinguish between the following types of correlation:
Correlation method of analysis used to quantify the tightness and direction of the relationship between two features (with a pair relationship) and between the resultant and a set of factor features (with a multifactorial relationship).
The tightness of the connection is quantitatively expressed by the value of the correlation coefficients. The signs at the correlation coefficients characterize the direction of the relationship between the features.
Regression is closely related to correlation and allows you to explore the analytical expression of the relationship between features.
Regression method of analysis consists in determining the analytical expression of the relationship, in which a change in one value (called a dependent or effective feature) is due to the influence of one or more independent quantities (factorial features).
When building regression models, the following requirements must be met:
Compliance with these requirements makes it possible to build a model that best describes real socio-economic phenomena and processes.
ECONOMIC THEORY
Gasanov G., Gasanov T.A.
CAUSE AND EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS IN THE DOCTRINE OF A. MARSHALL
Annotation. The article explores cause-and-effect relationships in economic processes through the mechanism of new emerging and isolated categories - demand, supply, market equilibrium, as well as plotting graphs for these categories, which were proposed by Marshall. The impact of consumption statistics has a great impact on the socio-economic well-being of society.
Key words: demand, supply, market equilibrium, public welfare, graphs, dialectic of interests interaction.
Gasanov G.A. , GASANOV T.A.
CAUSAL-CONSEQUENTIAL CONNECTIONS IN STUDYING A.MARSHALL
abstract. The article studies causal-consequential connections in economic processes through the mechanism of newly formed and separated categories of demand, supply of market equilibrium, as well as of building graphs based on stated categories that were suggested by Marshall. Consumption statistics impacts the social-economic welfare of the society a lot.
Keywords: demand, supply, market equilibrium, public welfare, graphs, dialectics of interest interaction.
The scientific novelty of A. Marshall's research, as the founder of the Cambridge school of marginalism, lies in the fact that he proposed to analyze and explore economic processes and phenomena through the prism of developed new emerging economic categories- supply, demand, market equilibrium, as well as using charting and other mathematical methods and models.
From a philosophical point of view, the categories of "demand" and "supply" are the result of deeper causes that form these economic categories. Therefore, it is necessary to start the analysis with the reasons that form the categories of "demand", "supply", as they reveal more deeply the content, the internal structure of these categories.
A. Marshall points out these features of the philosophical approach and scientific novelty in the analysis of economic categories: in the event that the hypothesis is previously accepted, according to which there is no other reason. will not be taken into account. but. is a source of great difficulties in economics. the time it takes for causes to produce their effects.
Consider the category "demand", which is a consequence of important causes. These reasons are of an objective nature and are formed as the need to meet the vital needs of a person: food, housing, clothing, entertainment for the consumer. The next group of causes that give rise to a consequence can be both objective and subjective: the development of new equipment and technologies, fashion, hobbies, institutional features, and so on.
In addition, demand is directly related to profit, the income of any entrepreneur. This is how A. Marshall points out about this: “... Demand is based on the expectation of profits. ...
These profits always depend on speculative risk and other causes ... Therefore, consumer demand is the ultimate regulator of all demand.
Thus, demand is twofold - the demand for essentials (consumer items) and the demand for means of production as a source of profit, income, or, as A. Marshall notes, "consumer demand".
So, demand can only be formed after deep and important causes that form them: accumulating, these causes objectively form the basis of demand and manifest themselves in a full-scale consequence, which is demand. This demand is analyzed by A. Marshall in the full and direct sense of this concept, obviously, as a cause, but not a consequence of the objective causes that give rise to them. In addition, this demand can be analyzed as a function of trading capital and the receipt, respectively, of trading profits, according to the metamorphosis D-T-D, proposed by K. Marx, which then became the general formula of capital.
Now let's analyze the category "offer". The offer is, first of all, the result of production costs, which are the main reason for the formation of the offer. Therefore, this category must be analyzed from the advanced production costs, since these costs for the production of goods create the foundation of the producer for any sector of the economy (objective reason).
Then there are other reasons that form the proposal, such as the development and use of scientific developments and new technologies (STP), the impact and use of STP on the proposal is rather ambiguous. So, if as a result of the use of new technologies the number of manufactured goods increases, while the volume of sales of these goods increases while the price decreases, then the profit margin (P) of producers decreases, but the mass of profit increases.
It is also necessary to indicate such a reason in the formation of the proposal as meeting the needs of people according to the principle of A. Smith's "invisible hand", i.e. manufacturers satisfy the social needs of people not because they want to do a good deed for the buyer, but in order to satisfy their selfish interests - to get a benefit, but at the same time they are forced to hide their true, selfish goals under the guise of caring and satisfying the needs of the buyer.
And, finally, the most important and main objective function of the manufacturer, which forms the proposal, as an important result that stimulates the above reasons, is to maximize profit at a minimum cost.
This reason - obtaining max profit, ultra-high profit is like a sun, around which all other reasons revolve, forming the proposal itself and already manifesting themselves as a consequence of these reasons, in the form of an ascending curve S. If, for example, production costs are somehow limited by the capabilities of the manufacturer and are tied to the factors of production - labor, land, capital, then the receipt of max profit is not limited by anything.
Thus, the movement of the producer is also carried out in one direction, the direction of benefit for the producer himself, no matter how he masks his interests; and this interest is diametrically opposed to the interest of the consumer.
Each cause is built into the system of supply and demand, but depending on the importance of these causes, it forms a supply or demand curve. The direction of this line can be different, indefinite, but gradually, under the influence of other reasons, it begins to build in the form of a curved line, because the indicated reason can increase or decrease depending on its significance for demand or supply as a whole. This line runs in parallel with the line of supply and demand, in the classical sense according to A. Marshall, and already manifests itself as a consequence of the curve of effective causes.
Now we turn to the study of the most complex and most interesting category - market equilibrium. Supply and demand are in dialectical unity. Without demand, there is no consumption, i.e., no supply; and supply becomes meaningless in the absence of demand. The dialectic of the interaction between supply and demand lies in the fact that as a result of this conflict of interests they must intersect at a certain point, it is absolutely indifferent at what point; and such an assumption is a scientific abstraction. At the same time, others market mechanisms- price, competition - will indicate the movement of supply and demand in such a direction that they intersect at a certain level, at a point
equilibrium with an equilibrium quantity and, accordingly, the formation of an equilibrium price; in such a way that a stable equilibrium price would suit both consumers and sellers in the face of competition and diametrically opposed interests.
For the objectivity of the analysis, it is necessary to investigate the movement of the equilibrium point with important reasons for both supply and demand, and then with numerous reasons in their totality and show the impact on the change in the equilibrium point, as well as its movement under the influence of these reasons.
As you know, market equilibrium is the intersection of supply and demand curves, but the causes of demand are fundamentally different from the causes of supply, i.e., the different directions of these curves.
When considering a market equilibrium, several options should be considered, both on the demand side and on the supply side. In determining the equilibrium point and market equilibrium as a whole, based on various reasons for both supply and demand, it is necessary to single out some important reason and show its influence on the change in the equilibrium point, as well as its movement under the influence of these reasons.
The point of market equilibrium can be located anywhere in the graphic plot, depending on what the main reason generates the proposal - obtaining the maximum profit; either the reason for the “invisible hand” of A. Smith or the reduction in production costs with a constant demand curve (Fig. 1).
Consider the movement of the curve, and hence the equilibrium point on the supply side, but on the condition that the demand curve has a constantly acting cause and is stationary.
Rice. 1. Market equilibrium with various supply reasons, where ^ R1, R2 - market equilibrium points for various supply reasons:
The main reason for the proposal is to maximize profit;
The main reason for the proposal is the principle of the "invisible hand" of A. Smith;
The main reason for the proposal is to minimize production costs
If the main reason for supply is to maximize profit, then the equilibrium point will be aimed at maximizing profit at minimum cost and increasing output, and this equilibrium point will be slightly higher than other reasons for supply.
And if the “invisible hand” of A. Smith is an important reason for the proposal, then the balance point will be located a little lower - down to the right compared to the above reason. This reason for the proposal is aimed at satisfying social needs and at the same time achieving a stable average profit and above average profit (although secretly they all expect to receive maximum profit). The equilibrium point will be evenly moving away from the other two reasons for supply, being located between them, as if choosing the gap between two curved lines.
Thus, the equilibrium point depends on the cause that dominates the set of supply-side causes when they intersect with the demand curve. Without such a causal relationship, it is impossible to properly understand market equilibrium and equilibrium prices.
With a reduction in production costs as the main reason for supply, the equilibrium point R2 will move down to the right; at the same time (minimization of production costs) will contribute to an increase in the mass of profit (with a reduction in the rate of profit) by increasing the volume of output, although the market equilibrium point will be located below other reasons.
The same result can be obtained on the graph if the main reason for the proposal is the prestige of the firm or company, i.e. profit is not the only reason entrepreneurial activity and business in modern conditions.
Now let's move on to analyzing the curve and moving the equilibrium point on the demand side, provided that the supply curve can have a permanent reason - maximizing profits and be in a static position.
Consideration of market equilibrium from the side of the main causes of demand shows that opposing interests will act here - the satisfaction of vital human needs, so the equilibrium point will be as high as possible compared to all other reasons. When demand is driven by the desire to gain a benefit or profit, then this reason will approach the curve of human vital needs as the natural desire of the entrepreneur to complete his business and further expand reproduction based on the profits received.
If an important reason for demand is fashion, prestige, then the equilibrium point or equilibrium price can move down to the left, because the interests of a person in pursuit of fashion fade into the background compared to vital reasons, and also if seasonality in consumption is an important reason for demand and other reasons, then the equilibrium point can continue to move down to the left, as seen in Fig. 2.
Rice. 2. Market equilibrium with various main reasons for demand, where E, E1, E2 are market equilibrium points for various reasons for demand: - the main reason for demand is the need to satisfy vital human needs;
The main reason for demand is the expectation of profit;
The main reason for the demand is fashion, hobbies, etc.
For the objectivity of the analysis, it is necessary to consider the market equilibrium with multiple causes of supply and demand, which can act simultaneously and independently of each other. (see Fig. 3) These causes can act in different directions, simultaneously, passing from one cause to another or intertwining with each other, forming a whole system of factors that determine the balance points.
Rice. 3. Market equilibrium with various reasons for supply and demand, where R, R1, R2, are market equilibrium points for various reasons for supply and demand as a result
synchronous impact of diminishing causes: 1,2,3,4,5,6 - possible points of market equilibrium for the indicated reasons of supply and demand, which act in different directions depending on the importance of the reasons for supply and demand
On fig. 3 shows three equilibrium points - R, R1; R2, synchronous impact due to the reasons of supply and demand and the gradual decrease of these reasons, which fall perpendicularly down, approaching the x-axis. Equilibrium points 1,2,3,4,5,6 - for reasons of supply and demand, act in different directions and can move to the left - to the right - down, depending on the importance of the reasons for supply and demand.
Thus, the numerous causes of supply and demand force the equilibrium points to migrate in different directions, depending on the importance of the reasons under consideration, numerous equilibrium points are determined.
Consequently, the cause-and-effect relationships of supply and demand increase the number of market equilibrium options, showing a complex model of economic development and pushing the boundaries of the study.
Literature
1. Marshall, A. Principles economics. T.I. - M.: "Progress", 1993.
2. Marshall, A. Principles of economic science. T.II. - M.: "Progress", 1993.
3. Marshall, A. - Principles of economic science. T. III. - M.: "Progress", 1993.
4. Tsypin, I. S. Economic reforms and modernization of the Russian economy // Regional problems of transformation of the economy. 2012. No. 1 (31). pp. 14-24.
4. Tsypin, I. Economic reform and modernization of the Russian economy // Regional problems of transformation of the economy. 2012. No. 1 (31). S. 14-24.
Learning goals:
Knowledge of socio-economic phenomena involves a comprehensive analysis of the relationships existing between them. The study of relationships is one of the most important cognitive tasks of the theory of statistics. The study of connections is based on the general philosophical concept of the universal connection of phenomena, which is known through the study of cause-and-effect relationships.
cause and effect relationships called such connections between phenomena and processes, when a change in one of them (the cause) leads to a change in the other (the effect).
Statistics is not engaged in finding out these reasons, this is done by special economic disciplines. Statistics reveals the presence and direction of the relationship, quantifies the impact of each cause on the variation of a particular feature, expresses the relationship analytically, which allows you to take into account the specified impact when making management decisions at various levels.
Statistical study of social phenomena makes it possible to quantify complex relationships based on the results of qualitative analysis, which not only precedes statistical research, but is also a criterion for evaluating results.
Theoretical (qualitative) analysis makes it possible to establish economic essence phenomena and processes, reveal their essential properties, as well as similarities and differences among themselves. This is the most important stage in the study of relationships between phenomena and processes.
In the process of studying dependencies, cause-and-effect relationships are revealed, which makes it possible to identify factors (reasons) that have a significant impact on the variation of the studied phenomena and processes. Reason - is a set of conditions, circumstances, the action of which leads to the appearance consequences.
Thus, based on a qualitative analysis, it becomes possible to divide the signs into two classes:
It should be borne in mind that in different cases the same indicator, for example, labor productivity, can act either as a factor or as an effective indicator. For example, labor productivity, on the one hand, depends on the level of automation of production, the length of service and qualifications of workers. Here labor productivity is a productive sign. On the other hand, the profit of the enterprise depends on the level of labor productivity. In this case, labor productivity is a factor sign.
Types of connections. Relationships between phenomena are classified according to different directions: nature, degree of tightness, direction, analytical expression, etc.
The nature dependencies distinguish between functional and stochastic relationships. The relationship between features is called functional (deterministic), if each value of one of them corresponds to one (or several, in the case of multiple connections) well-defined value of the other. Such dependence is strict, precise, complete.
Schematically, the functional relationship can be represented as follows: X=> U.
AT general view functional relationship can be written: y t= /(r,).
This type of connection is quite often manifested in mathematics, physics, and chemistry. In economics, an example of a functional relationship is a directly proportional relationship between features. For example, the labor productivity of a worker and the time spent by him on the production of a unit of output are in a functional relationship, in a strictly inverse relationship.
A characteristic feature of functional connections is that for such connections it is always known:
For socio-economic phenomena, it is characteristic that, along with significant factors that mainly determine the magnitude of the effective feature, it is influenced by many others, including random factors. Therefore, the existing dependence does not appear here in each individual case, as with functional connections, but only in general with a large number of observations. This dependency is called stochastic.
The origin of the stochastic theory of statistics in Russia dates back to 1880. The term "stochastic theory of statistics" (from the Greek stochastikos - to assume) belongs to J. Bernoulli. This term was introduced into scientific circulation by V.I. Bortkiewicz, who pointed out that in real life we almost always encounter events, each of which is the result of several causes. Huge contribution In the development of the stochastic theory of statistics, A.A. Chuprov.
With a stochastic dependence, a change in a factor attribute leads to a change in the distribution law of the effective attribute (Fig. 6.1):
Rice. 6.1
An example of a stochastic relationship is the following relationship: with the same length of service of several workers, their hourly wage is different.
A feature of stochastic relationships is that it is not known for them:
A special case of a stochastic connection is correlation, at which the change in the average value of the effective attribute is due to the change in the factor attribute.
The correlation is incomplete, not strict, and appears only in a sufficiently large number of cases. Schematically, it can be represented as follows: X=> F.
In general, the correlation can be written as: y ( = /(X,).
Correlation does not exist without stochastic and is the most important characteristic of the latter. Obviously, if there is a correlation, then, consequently, it is stochastic, since the presence of averages is a sufficient condition for the distributions to differ. At the same time, in the presence of a stochastic relationship, there may be no correlation relationship, since different distributions may have the same means and differ in other properties, for example, have equal variation.
The correlation relationship differs from the stochastic one in the form of manifestation. The relationship between them is similar to the relationship between the mean and series of the distribution. The distribution series gives the most complete characterization of the population. The average does not exist without a distribution series and at the same time serves as its most important characteristic.
Stochastic connection gives the most complete characterization of the relationship of features.
According to the degree of tightness connections are divided into weak, moderate and strong (close). Quantitative criteria for assessing the closeness of the connection are given by statistics.
Towards Distinguish between direct and reverse connections. At straight In connection with the increase (decrease) in the values of the factor attribute, there is an increase (decrease) in the values of the effective one. For example, an increase in labor productivity leads to an increase in profits. At reverse due to the growth (decrease) of the factor sign, the values of the effective one decrease (increase). For example, an increase in labor productivity leads to a decrease in costs.
By analytic expression distinguish rectilinear (linear) and curvilinear (nonlinear) connections. Linear is a statistical relationship, which is approximately expressed by the equation of a straight line. If the relationship is expressed by the equation of any curved line (parabola, exponential hyperbola, etc.), then it is non-linear.
Depending on the number of factors influencing the result, distinguish steam room and multifactorial (multiple) connection. Pair correlation is a special case of reflecting the relationship of some dependent variable, on the one hand, and one of the many independent variables, on the other. Therefore, a pair relationship is a relationship of two features. When it is required to characterize the relationship of the entire set of independent variables with a resultant attribute, then multiple correlation is used. Therefore, if several factors affect the resulting attribute, then the relationship will be multifactorial.
There are also connections direct, indirect and false. In the first case, the factors interact directly with each other. An indirect relationship is characterized by the participation of some third variable, which mediates the relationship between the studied traits.
The sources of false correlation were identified by K. Pearson. A false connection is a connection established between signs that do not have a causal relationship with each other, which is a consequence of the influence of a common cause. This is a relationship that has been formally identified and, as a rule, confirmed only by quantitative estimates. It does not have a qualitative basis or is meaningless. The manifestation of false correlation, which led to meaningless results, was discovered by the English statistician Edney J. Yule when changing the correlation between time series.
The main tasks of statistics to study the relationship of social phenomena are:
Basic methods for studying relationships. The main methods for studying functional relationships include: graphic, index, balance, analytical groupings, etc.
Methods for studying correlations include: graphical, analytical groupings, parallel series, etc., as well as dispersion, correlation and regression analysis, etc.
Parallel row method based on a comparison of two or more series of statistical values. A simple comparison of the values of indicators makes it possible to establish the presence of a relationship and get an idea of its nature.
Method of analytical groupings allows you to establish the presence or absence of the influence of two or more factors on the change in the effective feature, as well as the direction of the relationship. Using this method, you can characterize the general features of the relationship.
The main principle of the study of relationships using the grouping method is that usually a factorial one is chosen as a grouping feature. In the predicate of the table, absolute, relative or average values \u200b\u200bof the effective indicator are placed. Further, it is studied how a change in the factor sign leads to a change in the resultant one. For example, using grouping, it can be established that with an increase in labor productivity, the cost of production decreases, but this relationship cannot be quantified.
The simplest technique for identifying a relationship between two features is to build correlation table(Table 6.1).
Table 6.1
Building a correlation table
 |
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 |
The grouping is based on two traits studied in interconnection - X and Y. Frequencies /, show the number of matching combinations Hee Y. If / are arranged randomly in the table, then we can talk about the absence of a relationship between the variables.
In the case of the formation of any characteristic combination /, it is permissible to assert a connection between X and Y. Moreover, if /; concentrated near one of the two diagonals, then there is a direct or reverse linear relationship. The results of the correlation table for rows and columns show two distributions - one for x, other by Y. The grouping method allows not only to determine the closeness of the relationship, but also to measure its closeness based on the use of variation indicators.
Graphic method allows you to depict the relationship between features using a correlation field ("scattering field"), which is a visual representation of the correlation table. In the coordinate system, the values of the factor attribute are plotted on the abscissa axis, and the resulting attribute is plotted on the ordinate axis (Fig. 6.2-6.7).
By the location of the points, their concentration in a certain direction, one can judge the presence of a connection.
Of all these methods, correlation-regression analysis is the most perfect, since it allows not only to identify, but also to express the existing relationship in the form of a certain mathematical equation that characterizes the mechanism of interaction between factors and effective features.
Rice. 6.3.
Rice. 6.4.
Rice. 6.5.
Rice. 6.7. Correlation field plot Dependence between hee woo missing
The prerequisites for the use of correlation and regression analysis are the following:
Most of the phenomena and processes in the economy are in constant objective communication. The study of dependencies and relationships between objectively existing phenomena and processes plays an important role in economics.
In the course of the research, causally-consecutive relations or connection of objects, phenomena and processes, when a change in one of them (the cause) leads to a change in the other (the effect). Determination of factors that have a significant impact on the variation of the results of socio-economic development, a quantitative assessment of the impact, allows you to determine the main directions for improving the management process.
When talking about the relationship of two or more indicators (not only in the economy, but in general in nature or society), then two forms of relationship are distinguished: functional and correlation.
Functional dependence manifests itself definitely and precisely in each individual case, in each individual observation. For example, the well-known Ohm's law establishes a functional relationship between voltage, resistance and current strength. This law is strictly observed regardless of the type of conductor. Knowledge of functional dependencies allows you to accurately predict events even for the distant future. For example, solar and lunar eclipses.
Correlation dependence, in contrast to functional dependence, is manifested only in general and average, and only in the mass of observations.
In economic research, relationships between random and non-random variables are often studied. Such relationships are called regression, and the method of their study is called regression analysis.
Even before the mathematical calculation, it is considered established that the relationship between the independent indicator-factor x and the dependent variable y exists (at least it can exist) and is characterized by the function y=f(x). An example of the possible application of regression analysis in the economy is the study of the impact on labor productivity and cost of such factors as the value of the main production assets, wages, etc.
Thus, to correlation analysis- this is the definition of the closeness and direction of the connection between two signs (with a paired connection) and between the effective and the set of factor signs (with a multifactorial connection). R regression analysis- establishing an analytical expression (form) of the connection, assessing the reliability and adequacy of the regression to real conditions. That is, in the correlation analysis, the strength of the connection is estimated, in the regression analysis, its shape is studied.
Regression has different types.
Figure - Classification of types of regressions
Paired (simple) regression- regression between two variables: effective and explanatory (effective and factor signs). Multiple regression- regression between the dependent variable y and two or more explanatory variables.
Linear Regression expressed as a linear function. Nonlinear Regression is expressed by non-linear functions.
Positive regression- with an increase (decrease) in the explanatory variable, the values of the dependent variable also increase (decrease) accordingly. Negative regression- with an increase or decrease in the explanatory variable, the dependent variable decreases or increases.
Immediate regression - dependent and explanatory variables are directly related to each other. indirect regression- explanatory regression acts on the dependent through a number of other variables. Spurious Regression arises with a formal approach to the phenomena under study without clarifying what causes this relationship.
