Next year, the government intends to significantly accelerate the pace of economic growth, the authorities plan to continue increasing the incomes of the population. And how feasible are all these plans, taking into account the results of the work of the Belarusian economy in the outgoing year?
What pleased him and what are the main disappointments? Experts BelaPAN summed up the economic results of 2017.
Irina Tochitskaya, Scientific Director of the IPM Research Center:
The positive results of 2017, in my opinion, are associated with the activities of the National Bank, which, thanks to tough monetary policy succeeded in bringing inflation to a historic low.
From a positive point of view, one can probably also characterize the adopted decree. The development of small and medium-sized businesses is of great importance for the country. It is essential that the private sector can absorb labor resources, which will be released from state-owned enterprises.
The positive outcome of the year is that we have come out of the recession. At the same time, it raises concerns that household consumption, that is, domestic demand, is becoming one of the factors of economic growth. Plans to increase wages are a noble task, but its directive solution can unbalance the system. The stability that the National Bank managed to ensure is still rather fragile.
The stormy year of 2017 is also a threat to stability. Undoubtedly, this trend will lead to an increase in consumer imports. All this worries, since such a development of events is fraught with a weakening of the exchange rate and bears the risks of accelerating inflation.
Alexander Shvets, Chairman of the Belarusian Scientific and Industrial Association:
Looking back at the economic results of 2017, one gets a double impression.
On the one hand, government agencies have worked closely with the business community, and as a result, we saw a package of liberal documents to support entrepreneurship.
The adopted documents spell out simple procedures that open up opportunities for self-employment of the population and microbusiness. We also received a simplification of technical regulation entrepreneurial activity- Numerous sanitary and fire requirements have been cancelled.
On the other hand, not all economic results are encouraging. To tell the truth, the recovery of the Belarusian economy in the outgoing year is largely due to a favorable external environment. At the same time, internal structural changes that would increase the potential national economy we hardly saw.
The issue of "disposal" of inefficient enterprises that absorb resources and never become profitable is not being resolved. Significant steps towards improving the efficiency of corporate governance in the public sector have not yet been made either.
Another long-standing unresolved issue is the uneven playing field for private and public companies. This is very clearly seen in the example of the insurance sector, where state-owned companies have obvious preferences.
If we talk about the food industry, it comes to the point that milk is de facto distributed between dairy plants by the head of the department Agriculture regional executive committee. Under such conditions, can there be equal access for enterprises different forms ownership of raw materials?
Unfortunately, the business community did not see positive changes on these issues in the outgoing year and hopes that they will still occur in 2018.
Katerina Bornukova, Academic Director of the Belarusian Economic Research and Education Center (BEROC):
The indisputable positive results of the year are the recovery of the economy and the preservation of financial stability. It is also positive that liberal documents were adopted to support small and medium-sized businesses.
At the same time, it should be understood that liberal documents will have a significant macroeconomic effect only if they lead to an influx of foreign direct investment.
At the same time, attempts by the administrative authorities, the desire to increase them, by all means, are alarming.
The main failure in terms of the economic results of the year is the lack of decisions to be taken. In particular, in 2017, no serious steps were taken towards reforming the state-owned enterprise sector. We did not see any results not only on the issue of privatization, but also on the topic of reforming the system of corporate governance in the public sector.
Reforms do not appear to the authorities as an urgent task, and this suggests that next year we will not see any serious changes in the direction of reforming the public sector. Such an approach is fraught with the fact that slow economic growth will become chronic for the country.
In these conditions, it remains for Belarusians to wish that in the new year they strive to be competitive in the labor market and rely primarily on themselves, and not on the state.
Kirill Gaiduk, country economist World Bank in Belarus:
The key positive results of the outgoing year are known - the reduction of inflation to minimum levels, the exit from the recession and the restoration of economic growth. However, there are fears that it will be slow.
Key events of the outgoing year in economic sphere- liberal decrees and decrees on the development of entrepreneurship, as well as negotiations between Belarus and the IMF, which did not lead to the signing credit program. The announced pause in negotiations with the IMF certainly did not please. The Monetary Fund Program, if it could be concluded, could give impetus to long-term positive changes in Belarusian economy.
Nevertheless, I would like to see that, despite the lack of agreements with the currency fund, the tasks laid down in the five-year program of socio-economic development of Belarus would be solved. We are talking about improving the efficiency of management of state-owned enterprises, reducing cross-subsidization and developing the private sector.
Zhanna Tarasevich, director and co-chairman of the Business Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers. Kunyavsky:
The most important result of the outgoing year, in our opinion, is the adopted Decree No. 7 on the development of entrepreneurship - it gives hope that in 2018 a process of reforms will begin that will benefit the private sector.
In particular, we hope that in connection with the adopted decree, the amount of penalties that are currently applied to entrepreneurs will be reduced. The number of inspections should also be reduced, and this will help businesses to work more calmly and plan their activities.
What disappointed? In Belarus, two thirds of business entities operate at a loss, with zero or low (up to 5%) profitability. Such financial results do not allow the development of either enterprises or the economy as a whole. Therefore, we hoped that in 2017 measures would be taken to reduce the fiscal burden on enterprises. Unfortunately, this did not happen.
Fiscal policy should promote economic growth, so in the spring of 2018 we will organize an international conference on this topic with the participation of experts from the IMF and the World Bank. We hope that our proposals in this part will be supported at the state level.
Daniel Krutzinna, Managing partner of the international consulting company Civitta in the CIS:
The main economic successes of the year are obvious to everyone - the way out of the recession, the decline in inflation, the stability of the exchange rate. We also saw some decline in the share bad debts in the banking sector - all of the above points can be attributed to the positive results of the year.
The main personal disappointment of the year concerns asset management. In Belarus, at the state level, there is a belief that the current system of public sector management is effective, and the state can manage property as efficiently as a private owner.
Of course, if we are talking about the industrial giants of Belarus, it is difficult to say to what extent privatization can help them now - the situation there is not always unambiguous. However, as for medium-sized state-owned enterprises, many of them do not bring dividends to the state, and their privatization in most cases is justified.
There are two ways to change the situation in the public sector, and in the economy as a whole, for the better. The first one is privatization, the second one is increasing the efficiency of corporate governance. To implement the second path, it is necessary to change the motivation. Efficient managers, top managers who can increase the profitability of state-owned enterprises should earn decent wages. No one will save the country for a penny.
Another disappointment of the year was the failed program with the IMF. The Monetary Fund could help Belarus to carry out reforms and improve the efficiency of the real sector. Other lenders from which Belarus continues to borrow money do not have such competencies.
Valery Polkhovsky, Senior Analyst at Forex Club Forex Broker:
In 2017, the concept of "crisis" began to disappear from the verbal circulation of people, and this is certainly a sign of improvement. economic situation in the country.
Rising oil prices, recovery Russian economy allowed Belarus to emerge from recession in the past year.
I would like to hope that, which is planned to be adopted by the end of 2017, will allow the formation of new points of growth for the national economy.
At the same time, the negative result of the outgoing year is that the country is moving too slowly along the path of structural reforms, and we would like to see an acceleration in this direction. The country emerged from recession in 2017, but qualitatively new sources of economic growth have not yet emerged.
Independence Square in Minsk
Belarus ended the past year with growing problems. In 2017, the country's authorities expect a powerful impetus for the economy. Experts talk about groping for the bottom. collected forecasts for Belarus.Belarus ended the past year with a stagnant economy and an ongoing oil and gas conflict with Russia. In his New Year's address, the President Alexander Lukashenko stated that he has high hopes for 2017: "It should become a turning point and give a powerful impetus to the development of the country." Analysts polled by DW look to the future with noticeably less optimism. They made their forecasts for the coming year for DW, outlining the main trends in the economy and domestic politics of Belarus.
1. Groping for the bottom in the economy
"Most of the measures planned by the government for 2017 were promised several years ago. Even if they are implemented, they are already too late", - the editor-in-chief of "Economic newspaper" noted in an interview with DW Leonid Fridkin. He believes that Belarusians should not expect economic growth in the coming year.
Project Manager "Kosht Urada" Vladimir Kovalkin in an interview with DW suggested that 2017 "preparing the end of the period of macroeconomic stabilization and groping for that very cherished bottom". However, the expert points out that it is more likely "the leadership of Belarus will be able to keep the economy within the parameters that are included in the budget."
2. Return to the promise of $500 salaries
In his New Year's address, Alexander Lukashenko promised: "Whatever the cost, we will significantly increase the incomes of citizens in the coming year." December 21 upon appointment Natalia Kochanova As the new head of the presidential administration, Lukashenka announced a more specific goal: "$500 next year average salary. No matter what the cost, steal, dig, find, whatever, but $500 must be done."
According to Belstat, in November the average accrued salary in Belarus was 717 rubles ($366). The fulfillment of a similar demand by Lukashenka before the 2010 presidential campaign led to a threefold devaluation of the ruble the following year after the elections. Economists polled by DW do not see a repeat of that crash likely.
Expert of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky suggested that no one would seriously carry out this verbal instruction of the President: "As far as I understand, this (average salary of $500 - ed.) is not written anywhere in the target indicators of program documents. This means that there will be nothing to ask officials for.". The expert stressed that in order to achieve $500 salaries, one would have to turn on the printing press again, start inflation and reduce the stability of the ruble exchange rate, "and they have already burned themselves many times on this."
Meanwhile, on December 30, Lukashenka, talking to journalists, returned to the topic of $500 salaries, specifying : "Whoever is called to do this, but does not want to, we will part with them. Whatever it costs us, we will go towards this goal."
3. Reforms and restructuring of state-owned companies
Each pumping of the Belarusian economy with money ended with another crisis and devaluation, driving the accumulated structural problems deeper, reminds Vladimir Kovalkin. "There is a certain risk that the authorities will succumb to persuasion and temptation to solve the problem of growth through emission. But this probability is minimal, as long as there is hope to receive loans from the IMF and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD)", - sure Leonid Fridkin.
Structural reforms, on the need for which independent economists insist, from their point of view, are possible either under the influence of external factors (requirements of foreign creditors), or as a reaction to the collapse of the economy.
Pavel Daneyko, Director General of the Minsk Institute of Privatization and Management, in an interview with DW, called the decision by the Belarusian authorities to restructure state-owned companies the main issue of 2017. Daneyko sees no other way out for the government. By the way, such restructuring is also one of the main conditions for granting a loan to Belarus from the IMF.
Experts interviewed by DW doubt that the authorities in Minsk would dare to bankrupt insolvent enterprises on a massive scale. "Rather, they will try to drag out the rubber and look for ways to correct the situation with the usual administrative measures,"- says Friedkin.
4. Continued oil and gas conflict between Belarus and Russia
Belarus entered the new year with an unresolved dispute with Russia regarding the terms of hydrocarbon supplies. In this regard, the Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of Belarus Vladimir Semashko On December 29, he told the BelTA news agency that "we are not losing our optimism". According to Semashko, the Belarusian government hopes "to reach a compromise solution on the oil and gas issue no later than the first quarter of 2017."
Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky does not share the vice-premier's optimism. According to the BISS expert, 2016 was the last year when Belarus had more or less profitable terms purchases of oil and gas in the Russian Federation. "The profitability of Russian supplies will fall, and it will become increasingly difficult to negotiate,"- the expert predicts.
5. Depression, local elections and the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution
The Belarusian left intends to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution in 2017, and the church and right-wing politicians - to commemorate the victims of communist terror. Head of the Warsaw Center for Political Analysis and Forecasts Pavel Usov In an interview with DW, he noted that Belarusians, on the one hand, are tired of living in a state of constant political depression, and on the other hand, they do not have the strength to change the situation and do not hope for the best.
"Most likely, the population will face new forms of economic coercion (such as a tax" on parasitism ") from the authorities, which will increase protest moods and discontent. But it is unlikely to find expression in open opposition to the authorities, with the exception of local riots," Usov believes.
For the chairman of the United Civil Party (UCP) Anatoly Lebedko 2017 is predominantly a year of risks and challenges: "For citizens - a crisis and a dead end economic policy government. For the authorities - the Russian factor and the final destruction of the social contract with the population. For the supporters of change, it is the West's reset of relations with the official Minsk."
In November 2017, the campaign for elections to local councils will begin. First Deputy Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Oleg Gaidukevich and leader of the "Tell the Truth" campaign Andrey Dmitriev expressed the hope that the elections will be held together with a referendum on changing the electoral system. From the current majoritarian system to a mixed one, which provides for parliamentary elections based on party lists.
The process of Belarusian-Russian integration, which has been going on for 20 years, has allowed the economy of Belarus to maintain the existence of a political regime for many years. Alexandra Lukashenko. During the years of independence, the country has experienced several economic crises, but none of them has caused an increase in social tension in the country. The Belarusian leader has always skillfully used the current situation, and Russia, despite the dissatisfaction with the actions of its ally, has always come to the aid of Minsk. However, what in past years was seen in Belarus as an established system, in which the crisis is replaced by a period of growth and the preservation of Russian subsidies, today, apparently, is becoming a thing of the past. According to experts, at present the Belarusian socio-economic model faces much more serious problems than before, and another crisis is looming on the horizon, the consequences of which can be the saddest.
Analysts have been talking about the fact that not everything is in order with the economy of Belarus for a long time. However, until 2019, despite the decline in the living standards of Belarusians, the decline in GDP, ongoing inflation, production cuts and other clearly negative signals, the authorities of the republic continued to assert that nothing terrible was happening in the country. With the beginning of the process of negotiations on further integration within the framework of the Union State (SU), such rhetoric ceased to withstand any criticism. After the reduction of financing of the local economy by Russia and controlled by it financial structures it turned out that the process of stagnation in Belarus began to gain momentum. It can be recalled that the Russian Federation actually refused to provide Minsk with a previously agreed loan in the amount of $ 600 million, and then the Eurasian Development Fund (EDB) did not transfer the last tranche of $ 200 million to Minsk. Such a serious minus in the republic's finances could not but affect the mood of the Belarusian authorities, where from the middle of the year they began to speak directly that the country would have to tighten its belts. The result of all this was the republican budget for 2020, which was adopted by the parliament of Belarus in November.
According to the plans of the Belarusian government, for the first time in the past six years, the budget of the republic will become deficit - minus 995.1 million Belarusian rubles (about $ 475 million), or 0.7% of GDP. At the same time, the document was calculated not according to a pessimistic, but according to the basic scenario of economic development: GDP growth was set at 1.9%, inflation - 5%, refinancing rate - 9.5%, oil price - $ 60 per barrel. The government does not hide why next year the republic will be forced to spend more than it earns. Unresolved problems in Belarusian-Russian relations were named as the main factors negatively affecting income. For example, the impact of the "tax maneuver" in oil industry RF (minus 537 million rubles, or about $255 million), the cessation of "re-customs" of Russian oil (minus 951 million rubles, or more than $450 million), as well as rising prices for gas, which also comes from Russia. In total, the total budget losses associated with the unresolved issues with Moscow may amount to 1.9 billion rubles, or more than $ 900 million.
A few days before the celebration of the 20th anniversary of the creation of the Union State, neither Minsk nor Moscow still can answer the question of whether it will be possible to solve at least half of the problems of bilateral cooperation that have accumulated in recent years. As the Prime Ministers of Belarus and Russia noted Sergei Rumas and Dmitry Medvedev after the meeting held on November 19 in Gorki near Moscow, the parties are still on the way of agreeing on road maps in the field of the economy. At the same time, the main problems, primarily in the oil and gas sector, should be completely solved Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin at the upcoming December Supreme state council SG. However, as was later stated by the State Secretary of the Union State Grigory Rapota no meeting date has been set for the end of November. Although it was originally assumed that it would take place on the 20th anniversary of the signing of the Union Treaty - December 8th.
Against the backdrop of uncertainty about how the countries will continue to cooperate on oil and gas supplies, as well as compensation for the "tax maneuver", many economists said that in 2020 the events of eight years ago may repeat. In 2011, one of the most serious economic crises broke out in Belarus, when the Belarusian ruble devalued three times, inflation for the year amounted to 108.7%, and the standard of living of ordinary citizens fell by almost half. At the same time, the recent actions of the Belarusian authorities indicate that they have begun to intensively prepare for the development of just such a situation.
If you look back at the past "top ten", it seems that all this did not happen to us. It was as if we weren’t standing in line for TVs, refrigerators and sweeping buckwheat off the shelves, someone else, despite the risk of getting into the police, was buying the miserable $100 at the black rate on the website prokopovi.ch. The ban on the word "crisis", the historical phrases of Petr Prokopovich and the world's largest devaluation - all this seemed to take place through the looking glass. But make no mistake: if Netflix suddenly wants to make a series about that time, each of us can be its main character. Onliner.by presented the Decade project, in which it recalls the brightest events of the past 10 years.
A decade of crises and upheavals was preceded by "honey years". Yes, yes, there was a short time when the country's economy grew by leaps and bounds.
Since 2004, Belarus' GDP has been adding 20% or even 30%. Salaries increased by 11-20%. If in January 2004 the average accrued wages amounted to 299,859 rubles ($139 at the then exchange rate), then in December 2008 the pay of Belarusians tripled and exceeded one million rubles ($464 in equivalent).
Inflation slowed down, and in 2006 it reached a record low of 6.6%. Even then, the goal was to reach a salary of $500, in the middle of the “honey years” figures of $700 and even $1000 by 2015 were announced.
The dollar exchange rate was then superbly stable and was in the region of 2100-2180 non-denominated rubles (now it would be 21 kopecks). At that time, we were ahead of China in terms of growth rates. Our neighbors started talking about the “Belarusian economic miracle”.
One reason for this miracle was the price of oil. In peak years, a barrel broke through $140. We made money on customs clearance of black gold, buying it from Russia at domestic prices and selling it at world prices. In addition, Russia itself grew rich on petrodollars, so it gave us loans and a growing sales market.
The “Belarusian economic miracle” began to falter at the end of 2008, when the US mortgage bubble burst and the world was gripped by a financial crisis. Our country asked for a loan from the IMF, to which the fund put forward a demand for devaluation national currency. The Belarusian authorities said that this is an optional condition, and they did not call it very important. December 31 it became known: the IMF has allocated a loan.
On the morning of January 1, 2009, having barely recovered from champagne and Olivier, we were all taken aback by the news from the National Bank. The regulator announced an increase in the dollar from 2189 rubles to 2650. It was planned that the currency basket would be stable, and fluctuations would not exceed 5%.
It was a completely unpredictable step for ordinary Belarusians. A new reality has come. We have all dramatically lost 20% of our ruble stash, and in terms of wages in dollar terms, we have rolled back a year.
Without waiting for a new surge, people rushed to round-the-clock exchangers in order to have time to buy dollars at the old rate. Dollars and euros were searched everywhere, even on forums.
And then the Belarusians ran to the shops to save their ruble savings and buy goods before they were revalued. In the first week of 2009, 3.4 times more Vityaz TV sets and DVD players were sold in the country than in the whole of 2007.
Following the growth of the dollar rose in price imported goods, Belarusian products began to accumulate in warehouses, problems began for those who took foreign currency loans(then they were good, more favorable rates), increased rental prices and so on.
Queues at exchange offices and panic led to the fact that President Alexander Lukashenko said during the congratulations of Orthodox Christians on Christmas:
“We should not give up, as they do in other states, referring to the crisis. There is no crisis in the country.”
A couple of days later, the president explained the one-time devaluation by the crisis in Russia and the requirement of the IMF, which allocated a loan to the country.
“I'll be honest: the devaluation of the national currency by 20% occurred for two reasons. Firstly, Russia is our major trading partner, and with the strong Belarusian ruble, our exporters began to suffer heavy losses when trading on its markets. So we had to take this step. And it would have been better to devaluate at once,”- he said.
“Secondly, the International Monetary Fund offered Belarus good credit, even better than Russia gave. But there were two requirements: not to raise wages, not to hand out Belarusian rubles, because people will go to exchange them for dollars in exchange offices (although we did not quite agree, but found a compromise), and secondly, that we devalue the ruble by 20%. It was the requirement of the IMF.
And for almost $3 billion that they offered us, we had to go for it. Moreover, we had to carry out the devaluation anyway due to our export-oriented economy.”
The President also stated that “it was necessary to collapse the Belarusian ruble by 20% in the middle of 2008”, but “it was my iron position: to keep the corresponding corridor in 2008. And we kept him."
Later there were rumors about the transition to the Russian ruble, the printing of new money and denomination. Photos of supposedly new samples even began to appear on the network.
As we found out later, the rumors about the denomination were not really rumors. The current banknotes and coins were already ready at that time and were about to go into circulation. And if not for the crisis, they would have been introduced.
Now it's hard to imagine that in 2010 a dollar could be bought for 3,000 old rubles, or 30 kopecks with today's money - almost 7 times cheaper! Now it seems incredible, but at that time the numbers looked frightening.
How many dollars we could buy now at the rate of 2010
Petr Petrovich, who then headed the National Bank for 12 years, confidently stated that the devaluation of 2009 was a necessary measure. There is no need to further devalue the Belarusian ruble. Oh, in vain we believed him.
Rumors about the upcoming sharp one-time increase in the dollar began to soar at the end of February 2011. They were not groundless: critical public debt, inclusion printing press and advice from the IMF to tighten monetary policy. From mouth to mouth, Belarusians passed various dates of the collapse: March 9, 14 and 16. Problems began with the purchase of currency. Dollars, euros, and then Russian rubles disappeared from exchangers. Threads with discussions have appeared on the Onliner forum, where to get hold of at least some currency, except for the "bunny".
On March 17, the head of the National Bank, Piotr Prokopovich, complained to the president about the Belarusians buying up foreign currency and urged not to believe in provocations. Just then Pyotr Petrovich said his famous phrase: “As long as I am the chairman of the board of the National Bank, there will never be any one-time one-time devaluation.”
“We have enough experience that we have accumulated over 15 years, and this experience suggests that this is a bad decision for Belarusians. If it’s a bad decision, we won’t implement it.”- he said and confidently declared that there would not be a collapse not only by 20-30%, but even by 5%.
Exactly five days later, the regulator suspended the sale of foreign currency to banks so that they could sell it to the public through exchangers.
The excitement intensified: people stood in queues at the exchangers, kept a record of the queue, set rules like “do not take more than $ 200 in one hand” and almost fought for the coveted “hundred” for 3155 old rubles.
Like a phoenix from the ashes, currency traders have risen from the nineties. They began to stand near the exchange offices, where the unfortunate Belarusians came for dollars and euros. The people began to change dollars in a black way, despite the threat of a fine of up to 100 base.
No wonder we have become an IT-country. Just at that time, a symbol of the crisis in Belarus appeared - the site prokopovi.ch, named after the then head of the National Bank. On the site it was possible to leave orders for the purchase and sale. The black rate, of course, was higher than the official one at 3,155 rubles. At first, the difference was not very big - 3500-3900.
On May 23, contrary to all Prokopovich's promises, the National Bank announced a one-time devaluation. The dollar exchange rate rose from 3,155 rubles to 4,930 in one day. Belarusian investors lost more than $1.35 billion in one day.
True, even at the new rate it was impossible to buy currency in the exchanger. On the black market, the dollar crept up - the rate reached 6000-7000 rubles, and abroad - even up to 6500-9000. It became impossible to withdraw money abroad or pay with a card, there were problems with issuing currency deposits. Enterprises went to a reduced working day, the business suffered fabulous losses. The panic began.
In order to save their savings, Belarusians began to buy equipment and other large goods in stores at the old prices. Then they rushed for food: sugar, sunflower oil, buckwheat. It got to the point that the products were bought up and exported abroad to be resold. Then the authorities introduced "export" duties on the export of goods.
Huge queues, crowds of people around shopping centers- such a country saw only in the nineties. And there was reason to worry: private traders rewrote prices every day several times. Almost everyone pawned space dollar rates for insurance. 9000, 10,000 - it seemed to be unstoppable.
The price of fuel increased especially strongly - by almost 40%. In June, Belarusian motorists staged a stop-gasoline action, which ended with the fact that price growth slowed down.
The President expressed confidence that the situation with the currency will be resolved in the next couple of weeks. But the problems continued until September. It was clear to everyone that the country was in crisis. True, officials avoided this word. It was recommended to use the phrase "certain difficulties of a temporary nature". On this topic, by the way, there were a huge number of jokes.
Meanwhile, Nadezhda Ermakova replaced Pyotr Prokopovich, who had taken to the hospital. She admitted: there are problems, high inflation is inevitable - it will be 120%. At the same time, Nadezhda Andreevna sincerely wondered why Belarusians need a dollar.
“Well, I don’t have it, and I don’t go to the exchanger, I just don’t need it, she said. — I didn’t have it in the nineties, and I don’t have it today. Yes, shoes are imported, yes, they will become a little more expensive. Well, it's okay: instead of two shoes we take down one.
Gradually official exchange rate dollar reached 5,000 rubles. It was below the black market rate by 50-70%. Then the Deputy Chairman of the Board of the National Bank Taras Nadolny said that the official rate "is mathematically verified and economically justified."
The phrase went to the people and was transformed into "matsematical verified."
In mid-September, additional trading in the dollar was held for the first time on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange in order to determine its real market rate (the official one at that time was 5,700 rubles). Exchange trading ended at 8600, which was one and a half times higher than the "mathematical value".
From November 21, single trading began to be held on the stock exchange. The dollar for all began to cost 8680 rubles. In November, the average salary in dollar terms was $280. At the end of the year, it reached the level of $380. Belarusians received less than this amount only in 2016.
The World Bank then called that Belarusian devaluation the largest in the world over the past 20 years. By the way, in the same year, from November, Belarusians were obliged to buy foreign currency with a passport. This law was canceled not so long ago - on June 1, 2017.
In October 2014, the head of the National Bank, Nadezhda Ermakova, stated that exchange rate, included in the budget, will be 10,800 - 10,900 rubles, but it may be otherwise.
Ermakova noted that only a significant devaluation of the Russian ruble against foreign currencies. Like looking into the water.
On December 15, 2014, Russia experienced "Black Monday" - a one-time collapse of the Russian ruble. The next day was "Black Tuesday" - an even greater fall in the neighboring currency. During these days, the dollar rose from 58 Russian rubles up to 80.
On December 18, the President of Belarus said that the country would not "run after Russia and devalue the national ruble."
“The question of devaluation is not for me. But if you believe me, then it will not be, ”- he said.
And just a couple of hours later National Bank announced the introduction of a 30 percent fee for the purchase of foreign currency from December 20. In fact, it was a devaluation.
At that time, the dollar exchange rate was at the level of 10,900 rubles, and when buying in exchange offices, it grew to 14,170. Belarusians, remembering the last crisis, rushed to exchange offices. Dollars and euros again became scarce. People again went to the shops: TVs, refrigerators, microwave ovens - as in 2011, people bought everything.
On the same day, the first deputy head of the National Bank, Taras Nadolny, said that the regulator was solving the issue of a shortage of foreign currency.
“Many complain that there is not enough currency in the exchangers. Now we are solving these issues, it is ordered in foreign banks, it will become more Nadolny said. — Planes with currency are already on the way.”
This phrase of Nadolny again went to the people. It looks like the second main meme of the year was born then.
In December 2014, the official rate was 11,900 rubles, and the actual rate reached 15,470. The rate was lower on the black market, so the currency traders returned again, as did the Petr Prokopovich website.
The currency boom continued into 2015. The notorious planes from Nadolny arrived only after the New Year. The collection was canceled on January 9, but the rate did not fall. For two days of trading after the cancellation, the rate immediately jumped to 14,060 rubles. Then the dollar had an arrhythmia: a week later it cost 14,900 rubles, and then exceeded 15,000. Until August, the US currency fluctuated at this level. And then the ruble began to rumble again.
On August 24-25, the dollar exceeded the mark of 17,000 rubles and by the end of the year it was only growing. At the same time, prices crept up again, enterprises entered the four-day period and did not massively renew contracts with unnecessary workers.
In November of the same 2015, like a bolt from the blue, there was news about the denomination (the third in the history of the country) and the introduction of new money from June 2016. But the main thing is the appearance of coins in the country.
People confused the denomination and devaluation, just in case they were driven to exchange offices. New Year we met with the American currency at 18,569 rubles. For six years, the dollar exchange rate has grown exactly six times.
But even in 2016, the dollar did not stop. In February, he exceeded 22,000 rubles. The queues at the exchange offices appeared again. True, they are small: people have much less money.
This year, Lukashenka uttered another of the catchphrases, which very quickly went to the people.
“At the same time, I want to emphasize: any talk, excuse me, that has turned into chatter about some kind of crisis is unacceptable! There is no crisis, the crisis is in our head! Conditions have changed, in some areas they have changed significantly. So what? Is this the first time in our history?!”- he said.
“And not only in ours. We know how to work in these conditions, how to respond to them. And I don't need your reforms at all, the ones you propose! We must create a normal life for people, the functioning of the state and our society - that's what we need. Otherwise, instead of bread, you want to give people some kind of reform!”
Thus, a text was born, which later talented Belarusians set to music.
But nonetheless economic situation worsened in the country: internal debt increased, enterprises lost profits, laid off people, for the first time even registered unemployment almost doubled. This crisis differed from the two previous ones in that poor Belarusians suffered more.
Three recent years this decade, we have to fight the consequences of all the crises we have endured. The new team of the National Bank, headed by Pavel Kallaur, managed to finally release the dollar in free swimming. During this time, the refinancing rate decreased from 17% to a historical low of 9%, loans became cheaper, inflation again became single digits and also fell to a historical low, and it was decided not to turn on the printing press anymore.
The economy has revived, wages are slowly increasing. It seems like you can breathe a little and relax. Recently, however, economists are again predicting a global financial crisis. Like, the economy cannot grow indefinitely, as it has done for the last 10 years. These forecasts cause a persistent deja vu for Belarusians.
— If we compare the situation in the Belarusian economy in 2009 with this year, then the final achievement of a floating exchange rate after 2015, as well as the desire for macroeconomic stabilization, became an absolute achievement,- says Vadim Iosub, senior analyst at Alpari. — In other words, such strong devaluations that we had in 2011 or even at the end of 2014 are impossible in principle. Not in the sense that devaluation is impossible at all, but in the sense that a strong devaluation is impossible in a short time.
The main reason for such a strong devaluation was that the Belarusian authorities artificially underestimated the exchange rate and artificially restrained it as much as they could, spending gold and foreign exchange reserves on this. And when there were no forces and reserves to hold on, the course was released - and it fired like a compressed spring.
Now no one is holding back the course. Therefore, when there are some reasons for the Belarusian ruble to strengthen, it strengthens, if there are reasons to become cheaper, it becomes cheaper. We have been observing this for the last three weeks in the foreign exchange market.
Among the positive changes, the expert calls the reduction in the emission of money and the shutdown of the printing press, as well as a decrease in assistance to state-owned enterprises, indulgences for business and other things.
- Our attitude to reforms at the highest political level has not changed, the dominance of state property in the economy has not changed, different rights and different opportunities for private and state enterprises, the analyst says. — Certain moments over these 10 years have even worsened: the state external debt, "bad" debts accumulated by state-owned enterprises have grown, and so on.
The most cardinal tasks remained unresolved. We need to seriously do something with the inefficient state economy, but so far no decisive measures have been taken. Inefficient state-owned enterprises, including industrial and agricultural ones, as well as government assistance that is provided to them in the different form, — all this is putting a burden on our already weak economy.
Like a year and a half ago, on September 19, the head of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, threatened the country's government with resignation if his instructions were not fulfilled. Then such threats were followed by the dismissal of many officials. What will happen this time?
In March 2018, an article was written predicting a government crisis and devaluation Belarusian ruble.
It would seem that the new government should have learned the lessons of its predecessor and a similar situation should not have happened again. But only about a year has passed since his appointment, and the situation is repeating itself, almost copying the events of 2018: Lukashenka again threatens the government with resignation, and, in fact, for the same reason as last time.
Formally, of course, the situation looks different - then the government fell out of favor for sabotaging the order of the head of state to provide wages in the amount of 1 thousand rubles, although the budget was in surplus and there was money for wage growth.
The current government, it seems, is trying to sabotage the order to increase GDP this year by 4% (the budget is still in surplus, but the government does not spend money on economic recovery), which casts doubt on the achievement of our country's GDP growth goal of up to $100 billion. .
However, the situation is complicated by the fact that the budget is in surplus with Lukashenka's approval.
All this became clear after the meeting with the head of state on 19 September. It considered the results of the current year and draft forecast documents for 2020.
As it turned out, three out of seven forecast parameters for the current year have not yet been met: for export growth, for GDP growth and labor productivity. In this regard, the president said that "everything planned must be implemented," and if "the development parameters for 2019 are not met, all those responsible - from the prime minister - will retire."
He also stressed that he was concerned about the fact that the economic growth in the country “is not only modest, but also extremely unstable, to put it mildly. This trend needs to be reversed. Who wants and can, stay and change.
Indeed, according to the results of January-August of the current year, the GDP of Belarus increased by only 1.1%, and this is despite the target indicator for the year of 4% and growth in January-July by 1.3%.
Lukashenka also noted that those officials who know how to listen to him and carry out his instructions will continue to work with him, and suggested that those who disagree with this practice leave: “If Rumas and Kochanova, deputy prime ministers and ministers do not hear me, then you better collect portfolios and leave at once."
Lukashenka also stated that “we cannot take the position of outside observers and be content with balance. Invented, written on paper. People who gave their trust during various kinds of campaigns, including political campaigns, did not vote for this and this is not what is required of us.”
Prime Minister of the Republic of Belarus Sergei Rumas after being criticized on September 19, he showed composure and stated that in the remaining months the government would make every effort to catch up. It can be noted that he did not say that the plans for GDP growth would be fulfilled.
This revealed a fundamental difference in the attitude of officials and the head of state towards his instructions. Officials believe that their job is to try their best, while Lukashenko believes that the result is important. This is a fundamental contradiction of the Belarusian system of government.
How it will be resolved this time is still unknown. On the one hand, despite the promise of Sergei Rumas to do everything possible, the government is unlikely to be able to pick up the pace GDP growth up to 4%.
Thus, the experts of the Eurasian Development Bank believe that there will be no significant and sustainable acceleration of the Belarusian GDP growth rate in the short term. They wrote about this in the monthly information and analytical review of the bank for August 2019.
Experts noted that the acceleration of the growth rate of the economy of the Republic of Belarus in January-July 2019 to 1.3% from 0.9% in the first half of the year was due to short-term factors, in particular, good weather, that is, this process will not continue.
Indeed, in January-July 2019, the GDP growth rate decreased to 1.1%, and this was caused by a decrease in agricultural production.
Even the National Bank believes that GDP will increase by only 2.9% this year. Pavel Kallaur said this in an interview with the British magazine for investors fDi Magazine, where materials were posted on the investment opportunities of Belarus, paid for National agency on investments and privatization of the Republic of Belarus.
The head of the National Bank again spoke about the need for structural changes in the country and called on foreign investors to believe in further improvement of the business climate in Belarus and invest in Belarus.
Of course, one can hope for this, but in the context of the creeping global economic crisis Investors are now more inclined not to invest in Developing markets, and output.
However, while the government is looking for ways to increase GDP and exports. In particular, on September 24, Sergei Rumas held a meeting with transport workers. It discussed measures aimed at increasing the export of transport services.
However, the Minister of Transport and Communications of the Republic of Belarus Alexey Avramenko honestly said that there will be no growth this year, exports will remain at the level of last year and will amount to about 4.5 billion dollars.
Thus, there is no chance of a sharp GDP growth in the coming months. But this does not make the resignation of the government inevitable. There is an important difference between the current conflict and last year, indicating that Lukashenka is unlikely to rush to take drastic measures.
Namely, the government and the president avoid any specific figures. They didn't talk about a $100 billion GDP, they didn't talk about a 4% GDP growth plan this year either. This is done for a reason, but apparently so that later Lukashenka cannot be reproached for not carrying out his threats if he does not dismiss the government.
The fact is that the government has several scenarios for the development of the economy and growth of 4% corresponds to the most optimistic. Therefore, Lukashenka will always be able to say that he did not mean 4%, but growth within the framework of some of the pessimistic scenarios.
That is, while the intentions of the head of state to dismiss the government do not seem very serious. Apparently, the fate of the government largely depends on the mood of the voters during the parliamentary and presidential elections.
If Lukashenka considers the mood negative for himself, then he may well arrange a demonstrative resignation of the government. That is, if the government fails to provide the people with bread, the president will provide the people with the spectacle of the resignation of officials.
As for the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, it can be implemented as one of the measures to support Belarusian exports, and may also be a consequence of the easing of the monetary policy of the National Bank and the government.
This is quite possible, since they do not have much money to accelerate the rate of GDP growth. And so they have already held out for quite a long time without softening (except for the increase in wages at the expense of the budget), as a result of which the GDP growth rates in our country are kept at such a low level.
China and the United States are stimulating their economies with might and main, and they are growing without any foreign investors. At the same time, China is slowly devaluing the yuan, and even in the US, Donald Trump is trying to weaken the dollar, although so far without much success.
