Stop tap from the Central Bank
The sharp weakening of the national currency forced the financial authorities to suspend foreign exchange interventions. As a result, from 68.6 rubles (the maximum rate was on Monday, August 13), the dollar went down to 66-67 rubles. The restoration of the Turkish lira also helped the ruble in part. Plus, oil prices started to rise. On August 14, a barrel of Brent was trading at $73.4.
However, by and large, the situation is now developing not in favor of the ruble. Sale of assets on emerging markets continues: the MSCI EM index lost 1.5% at the beginning of the week. Non-residents, who own a third of the public debt, continue to sell OFZ. At the beginning of the week, the yield of the RGBITR index reached a yearly high of 8.28%. “There are no fundamental reasons for such a weakening of the ruble - investors react to the news background, they usually need time to reassess the risks,” says Darya Zhelannova, an analyst at Alfa Capital.
Plus sanctions are ahead, and no one can predict whether the US will limit itself to a ban on the supply of electronics or come up with more painful ways to reason with the Kremlin. According to Sabina Khasanova, director of the analytics and content department at Banki.ru, the US authorities may aggravate the situation in August. “If the sanctions really turn out to be tough, the ruble will roll down again and will win back the rest of the year for the rest of the year,” she says. With this development of events National currency is unlikely to return to the values of 61-64 rubles per dollar and 72-75 rubles per euro.
In addition, the Central Bank may start buying up foreign currency again as soon as the situation stabilizes a bit. The regulator himself stated that so far we are talking about a temporary reduction in interventions. “Over a longer period of operation within the framework of budget rule will be implemented in full," the Central Bank warned. In total, this year it is planned to spend 2.7 trillion rubles on the purchase of foreign currency.
“No one expects that the budget rule will be cancelled. This can happen if new sanctions are imposed or if a chain reaction starts in emerging markets,” comments the head of foreign exchange and money market Metallinvestbank Sergey Romanchuk. Some market participants suggest that the pause may last until August 22, when new US sanctions should come into force.
Who benefits
Despite the assurances of First Deputy Prime Minister Anton Siluanov that the authorities are ready to use the entire arsenal of means to ensure financial stability, until the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance are ready to abandon the budget rule. According to Romanchuk, if this happened, then at the current oil price, the dollar would cost 62-63 rubles.
A smooth weakening of the ruble is beneficial to the state and is even included in the forecasts of the departments of the economic bloc. Thus, in the conservative scenario of the Ministry of Finance until 2035, it is assumed that the dollar in 2017-2020 will cost more than 68 rubles (the base forecast is 64.8 rubles), and in the early thirties - 84.2 rubles (the base forecast is 77.1 rubles) . The Ministry of Economic Development is also betting on the devaluation of the national currency: at the end of this year, they expect the dollar at 61.7 rubles, and in 2020 - already at 64.8. True, 68 rubles per unit of American currency should, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, be given only at the end of 2024. Not August 13, 2018.
Devaluation is beneficial to any other state, since the depreciation of the national currency reduces liabilities in it
The reality is ahead of officials' forecasts. However, so far the state only wins. “Currency devaluation can be beneficial for the state from two positions. The first is if the country has a significant export of liquid goods (oil, gas, metals) or a powerful industry. In the first case, the budget will be replenished more actively, and in the second case, we will talk about the general recovery of the economy by increasing competitive advantage industry,” says Andrey Kochetkov, an analyst at Otkritie Broker. For the budget, this is a plus. In addition, Aleksey Skaballanovich, asset manager of Region Asset Management Management Company, notes that devaluation is beneficial to any other state, since the depreciation of the national currency reduces liabilities in it. “And the losses associated with the depreciating national currency are passed on to the population,” he notes.
Alpari analyst Natalia Milchakova recalls that the Ministry of Finance also forms savings in dollars, so it is directly interested in the weakening of the ruble. “These funds can later be used for the implementation of large production projects, including those under the May decree,” she says.
On the other hand, the fall in real incomes of the population will hit the sectors that are oriented towards domestic demand - food, manufactured goods, durable goods, construction, lending. The latter is especially likely if the Central Bank decides to raise the key rate. Although experts estimate the probability of this event as low. Denis Poryvay, an analyst at Raiffeisenbank, believes that the regulator can resort to such a measure only if the dollar exchange rate goes beyond 100 rubles or more. Binbank analyst Anton Pokatovich does not exclude that by the end of the year the regulator will still raise the rate by 0.25 percentage points to 7.5%.
Not all resources are good
An increase in the Central Bank rate and, consequently, an increase in the cost of loans will do a disservice to the Russian economy and, in particular, the financial sector. “If interest rates on loans rise, this will slow down the lending market and provoke problems with the profitability of banks,” Khasanova said.
Skaballanovic believes that this could lead not only to a slowdown in growth, but even to a decrease in GDP. Which directly contradicts the May decree of the President, who demanded from officials that by 2024 the country enter the top five largest economies in the world, the growth of the Russian economy exceeded the growth rate of the world, and real income citizens have steadily increased. According to Pokatovich, while maintaining a weak ruble near current levels, we can only talk about maintaining the stability of the economy, but not about accelerating economic growth.
However, the majority of experts interviewed by Banki.ru believe that there is no need to raise the key rate now to support the ruble. Most likely, the Central Bank uses other mechanisms - currency REPO or a reduction in the swap rate. While on the whole, considers Break to keep on foreign exchange market status quo, it will be just enough to suspend intervention in the market. The inflow of currency into the country is enough to keep the ruble. Especially if the government does not exempt exporters who have fallen under the sanctions from the mandatory repatriation of capital (so far this only applies to Rosneft).
The state needs a cheap, but not too much, ruble. Such as not to cause panic among the population and at the same time ensure high revenues to the budget
“The state needs a cheap, but not too much, ruble. Such as not to cause panic among the population and at the same time ensure high revenues to the budget. The state will act very prudently in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid further aggravation of the situation,” Alexander Bakhtin, BCS Premier strategist, is sure.
Life after sanctions
In favor of the ruble - the high price of oil. Even if it drops to $65 per barrel, this is quite a comfortable level for Russia both from the point of view of the budget, which includes the price of oil at $40 + two percent indexation, and for the ruble exchange rate, notes Daria Zhelannova from Alfa Capital Management Company. Therefore, analysts do not expect a strong fall in the ruble. At the same time, they believe in Alpari, the dollar and the euro will gradually continue to rise in price. By the end of the year, the American currency may reach 70 rubles, and the euro will cost 80 rubles. The approaching tax period can give a small respite.
Denis Poryvay from Raiffeisenbank recalls that at the end of July, when companies paid taxes, the dollar fell to 62-62.5 rubles. “Now we are unlikely to see such courses, especially if the intervention of the Central Bank begins. But still, it will be the most favorable time to buy foreign currency,” he said. Raiffeisenbank predicts that by the end of the year the dollar will cost around 67-70 rubles. This is with the expectation that foreigners will be banned from buying OFZ. However, if sanctions are imposed against the largest Russian companies and state-owned banks, according to Breaking, what happened at the end of 2014 will be repeated.
Estimate:
67 23
Russians are characterized by a stable interest in the exchange rate of international currencies. Especially such large and important for the economy of the whole world as the dollar and the euro. These indicators not only economic policy within the state. fluctuations on international markets significantly affect the wallets and purchasing power of the people. Citizens are anxiously watching how the dollar behaves: whether the US currency will rise or fall. It depends on the course how expensive and interesting the vacation will be. Is it worth it to buy foreign goods abroad, how much prices will rise in stores and wages will fall. After all, there are organizations that pay their employees salaries in dollars. Situation recent years showed that the bank mortgage market also strongly depends on these indicators. After another jump in the dollar, many people were unable to pay their loan installments.
The foreign exchange market is highly active. It is influenced by numerous factors, so forecasts for long terms are not always correct. It is required from time to time to adjust them in accordance with the current situation.
The US dollar has been the national currency of the United States of America since 1785. Since the end of the Second World War, it has acquired the status of a reserve currency and has been able to influence world economic activity. Established to help countries in need, the IMF operates with amounts in dollar terms. Governments that borrowed from the International Monetary Fund became debtors to the United States.
The dollar is the world currency
The US has created a demand for its currency by securing vast markets for its printed money. However, there are a number of other factors that contribute to the change in the dollar exchange rate on the currency exchange:
The important thing to note international trade oil and oil products. Oil, after the release of the dollar from the "gold dependence", has become the indicator that most actively affects the general state of the world economy and the state of the economy of the states exporting this valuable resource. The fall of the dollar as a result of a decrease in oil production and an increase in prices for it was quite significant. Exchange rates are influenced by political stability in a number of states, the relationship between the United States and these economies: the more confidently a power behaves in the political arena, the more difficult it is for the United States to influence its domestic market by organizing dollar expansion. All this, together with the growth of production and the growth of the share of exported goods, leads to the strengthening of national currencies and the depreciation of the dollar.
International and national conflicts contribute to the appreciation of the course. When the share of domestic production falls in a country, economic activity tends to a minimum, the population increases the demand for a stable foreign currency. Such confidence in the currency is pursued by the following: saving and increasing one's own funds, increasing guarantees for traveling abroad.
There is an international level of factors influencing the value of the dollar, there is a national one. Own economic indicators The US also counts.
2018 was not the easiest year for the Russian ruble. Everything indicated that the US dollar would strengthen its position at the auction. And if at the beginning of the year people were wondering if the dollar would rise, then towards the end of the year it can be said with certainty that it has grown by 8.5 rubles per 1 US dollar.
In January, the dollar was worth 57.0463 rubles. And if at the beginning of the year the dollar fluctuated slightly, within 2-3 rubles, then after April there was a rapid growth and more active fluctuations, sometimes exceeding 6.8 rubles. This was especially true during the summer period. By September, the dollar had reached its annual maximum of 69.97 rubles per $1. For six months, the American currency showed a positive growing trend against the ruble.
The autumn and winter months do not promise a positive end to the year for the ruble. The ruble will not only not strengthen against the dollar, but may also lose a few more points in the wake of the next package of sanctions. According to InvestFuture Editor-in-Chief and stock analyst Kira Yukhtenko, the likely scenario at the end of the year is that the ruble will face increased volatility. The elections to the US Congress and Trump's meeting with Putin on November 11 will bring the American side back to the topic of discussing the next sanctions package. At this time, the dollar can reach 70 and even 75 rubles. The sanctions themselves may not end up being so harsh. And if the price of Brent oil stays above $70 per barrel until the end of the year, there will be a chance for the ruble to strengthen.
Expert Mikhail Poddubsky, chief analyst at Promsvyazbank, believes that now there are no reasons for a strong weakening of the ruble. The movement of the dollar / ruble pair will take place in the range of 67-68 rubles / $. If the sanctions risks turn out to be not so severe, then the ruble will have the position of an undervalued currency.
According to the forecasts of financial experts, the dollar rate will grow in the near future. The year may end at 68.25 rubles per dollar.
Long-term currency forecasts are rarely accurate. So in 2018, none of the experts expected such a sharp jump in the dollar in the spring. Therefore, forecasts for 2019 vary.
The main predicted indicators that affect the value of the currency in Russia include:
However, there are also unpredictable factors that can have a serious impact on the exchange rate. These include:
Do not underestimate the policy of the Central Bank, this regulator has a significant impact on many economic indicators. While maintaining and even raising the key rates of the Central Bank at the current level, the average price for oil at $60, as well as reducing the sanctions burden, we can expect the dollar to fall to 60 rubles per unit within six months. However, this forecast is positive.
The neutral forecast from the Economic Forecasting Agency (APEKON) assumes an average annual exchange rate of 70 rubles per dollar with a decrease to 62 rubles by the end of the year. This scenario will work while maintaining oil prices and a stable world situation.
A negative outlook suggests economic crisis next year. Under it, the Russian economy is expected to fall and the value of the dollar from 125 rubles at the beginning of the year to 500 at the end. This could lead to a sharp drop in oil prices and a serious tightening of sanctions.
What will happen next with the dollar, the upcoming 2019 will show. Russian economy by the end of the year was in a wait-and-see position. So far, the country's most reliable instruments of regulation remain internal resources. Thus, the firm policy of the Central Bank, and further strengthening of the economy within the country with GDP growth and the average level of inflation, contribute to the fact that the state currency will strengthen its global position.
Well Russian currency strengthened in about six months. Wages will rise, inflation will remain low, but the share of the middle class will shrink. This forecast is made by Russian economists.
According to them, there are no fundamental grounds for further weakening of the ruble: over the year, oil prices have grown by almost one and a half times, and the ruble has slightly fallen in price, although it should have been growing. This suggests that the ruble in its current borders is under geopolitical pressure and the state is buying up foreign currency.
The threat of imposing new sanctions against the Russian Federation remains. It is this circumstance that can affect the depreciation of the ruble. “The main intrigue now is whether a restriction will be introduced on the Russian public debt and how this will affect the foreign exchange market. I think the probability of this is minimal, which gives reason not to expect a significant weakening of the ruble. Since it is precisely such a package of restrictive measures and sanctions that could greatly weaken the ruble,” - said the managing director of the National rating agency Pavel Samiev.
However, even if foreign investors decide to withdraw their money from federal loan bonds, this will be an advantage for Russia: it will be possible to redeem the state debt for next to nothing.
Experts note that the policy of the Central Bank keeps the ruble from strengthening, because for some reason the regulator considers it dangerous for the economy. They do not agree that a cheap ruble is definitely good for Russia.
“It’s good for those who export ferrous metallurgy products. But the entire industrial assembly will collapse. The weight of components is much greater than the weight of labor. Those who planned to modernize, purchase imported equipment postponed everything, because it is not clear at what rate to conduct transactions ", - said Alexei Vedev, director of the Center for Structural Research at the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, an expert at the Center for Strategic Research.
The depreciation of the ruble does not threaten strong inflationary shocks. Most likely, the rise in prices will remain at an acceptable level. However, changes in the exchange rate will affect the structure of consumption. "Leisure abroad will fall by 30-40 percent. The devaluation will also affect the overall consumption of paid services. Industrial assembly, industries with high added value will suffer," predicts Vedev.
Economists advise Russians to keep their savings in different currencies, but still give preference to the ruble, since it is in it that most of the expenses are carried out. Much also depends on the timing of savings.
"If we are talking about fairly short-term savings - up to a year, the ruble instrument is probably better. If we are talking about savings for a period, noticeably more than a year, you need to look towards hard currencies, since the risks of devaluation on the long horizon grow noticeably. So far, there is not even a shadow of hope that the sanctions pressure will decrease. And any pressure is a weakening of the ruble,” said Sergey Khestanov, Associate Professor of the Department of Stock Markets and Financial Engineering of the Faculty of Finance and Banking of the RANEPA, Advisor for Macroeconomics to the General Director of Otkritie Broker.
By autumn, the ruble should be fairly stable. “He will return after the hysteria to the 57-58 corridor, oil will not be lower than $65, and these positive expectations will give us no worsening of the situation. Disposable incomes will not fall. Wages will grow by about 3% above inflation,” believes Alexey Vedev. Sergey Khestanov expects that the dollar will cost 62-64 rubles.
“Real disposable incomes of the population may not stagnate, but even grow slightly. Another issue is the distribution of the population structure by income. I think we should expect a decrease in the share of the middle class. public sector and the public sector," concluded Pavel Samiev.
At the moment, the US dollar is worth 61.67 rubles on the Moscow Exchange. (5 kopecks more than the day before). The euro continues to fall. At the moment, 75.21 rubles are offered per unit of euro. (17 kopecks less than yesterday).
Today, portal analysts will try to understand the current situation with the growth of the dollar in Russia and neighboring countries. The impact of sanctions on macro indicators will no longer be so great and will be extremely limited. Bloomberg and S&P even said so. They evaluate all criteria from the external balance to the gold reserves and external debt about 500 markers.
The reason for the failure of the ruble is rather in the economic system and its mechanisms. The state is unable to effectively manage national economy. For it does it according to the recipes and rules established by our "partners". And it has been doing this for decades by building up the meat of clans and groups of influence on the skeleton of enemy methods, which do not allow changing the economic system, introducing the necessary tools of management, control and adopting the necessary laws. Therefore, the efficiency of the state machine is like that of a cart.
In fairness, we note that since 2014 most world currencies have also sank against the dollar by 2 times - these are all the currencies of the CIS countries, Latin America, Turkey, South Africa, even NATO vassals like Norway and Sweden have fallen 1.5 times, but most of all distinguished themselves except perhaps in Ukraine - sifting almost 4 times.
Speculative pumping, long awaited, nothing new. As money is pulled from alarmists in dollars, so it will be lowered back. Look, for example, at how the Sberbank breeds people on gold. With the current price of oil and gold reserves, the real exchange rate is 55-60, or even 50-55. Stock indices have already worked back almost completely. So we are waiting...
Such are our fathers of the people:
Bourgeois, official, oligarch - rotten nobility,
They want the plebs - rogue
Take away the last penny!
All capital has already been withdrawn from the Russian Federation in 2015-16, so there is nothing to fall, 66 rubles per dollar is a trite speculative figure, caused by the fact that hamsters rushed to buy at 70 and sell in half a year at 50, as it was already in 2015- m.
By and large, such a course is beneficial for the state, with high oil prices and the dollar exchange rate, great money goes to the treasury. The real exchange rate can only be determined by PPP (purchasing power parity), as it is equal to 1:36, i.e. for 42,000 rubles you can buy as much goods as in the USA for 1160 bucks.
An export-oriented country cannot be crushed through devaluation, because the lower the ruble, the higher the profit of exporters and, accordingly, tax deductions to the treasury. When the ruble was at 30 and oil at 100, then Russia received 3,000 rubles from a barrel, now oil at 73 at a rate of 66, we get 4,818 rubles from a barrel. To put it mildly, not the best tactic for the United States, in which all Russian goods become more competitive, and imports are constantly becoming more expensive and squeezed out of the Russian market.
Well, over time, the dollar will be under 70. It was 4 years ago 35 rubles. now 66. So what? In the end, it didn't get any worse. It has become worse in the USA, where it is almost impossible for locals to find normal work, factories are moving to Mexico and China. In the EU, too, it is gradually getting worse. The United States every year at the expense of the whole world increases its debt by more than a trillion dollars, soon there will be more than 22 trillion. And it is already impossible to pay for this pyramid - only bring down!
The worst thing for the country is the leakage of not money, but other resources - human capital, if everything goes on like this in the Russian Federation, when we get a multiple of less than in the West for the same work, then this will become an inevitable process. And the same vicious circle of eternal homeless people begins, because all passionate and intelligent people begin to leave in search of a better life abroad, fueling the local economies with their labor and gene pool.
saving. However, judging by how rapidly the dollar is falling, faith in its stability is beginning to waver. But why does it happen, what causes the fall foreign exchange what the experts say. Will the dollar grow or vice versa the Russian currency will be more valuable?
The opinions of currency market experts on the recent fall of the American currency. They clearly answered why the dollar is falling today.
Denis Gorev, who is the head of the asset management department at General Invest, draws attention to the fact that the strengthening of the national currency of Russia against the US dollar is due to the stabilization of the cost of oil. An important role was played by the global fall in the value of foreign currency.
On September 11, 2018, the ruble was able to consolidate its positions in comparison with the dollar and the euro. The Treasury Department's federal bond sale event has been canceled in light of the upcoming tax period. At the same time, the cost of a barrel of oil is increasing. However, Vadim Kravchuk, an analyst at the sales department of IFC Solid, believes that one should not count on a depreciation of the dollar below 68.7-69 rubles per 1 unit of currency in the light of recent events.
As of September 12, the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange continued to trade in American money for 68.65 rubles, while the euro remains at the level of 80.70 per 1 unit of currency. In turn, Gleb Zadoya, who works as an expert at Analytics Online, notes that sanctions and speculators continue to put pressure on the national currency. The turbulence in emerging markets, the outflow of capital of non-residents do not allow the national currency to rise normally. The dollar exchange rate, which has been established today, is also not interesting for buying the American currency. We need to wait for the course to be adjusted to the mark of 65-66 rubles per 1 unit, the expert believes.
Andrey Kochetkov, leads analytics " Opening Broker», believes that it is too early to talk about the stability of the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar. The analyst confirms significant progress in terms of stabilizing the ruble against major global competitors. But the reason for this was the statement by the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin that the ministry will continue to strengthen the national currency and fix it at the level of 63-64 rubles until the end of the year. Also, more confidence in the words of the head of department was added by messages from the Far Eastern Economic Forum about the agreements reached between the presidents of Russia and China on settlements in the national currency.
Even the American media, in particular, The Wall Street Journal on September 23 contained an article that the dollar was overvalued by 10%. To eliminate America's trade deficit, which has reached 500 billion dollars, it is necessary to significantly depreciate the currency that exists now.
Russian analysts at Prognozex predicted the strengthening of the ruble and the fall of the dollar to the level of 50-55 rubles. And all this despite US sanctions, falling oil prices and other political factors. But by the end of 2018, the dollar will rise again to the level of 58-60 rubles per 1 unit of foreign currency. This is because a strong national currency is not needed at this stage. The dollar will continue to fall only at this stage!
APEKON experts say that Russian ruble only temporarily strengthened his position. In 2018-2019, there will be a gradual depreciation of the ruble and a rise in the dollar again. At the same time, experts note that there will be no sharp ups and downs. All this is associated with the lack of growth in oil prices, possible new sanctions, which does not allow the Russian ruble to take a strong position in the foreign exchange market against the US currency, which is standing firmly and has a gradual upward trend.
Despite attempts by the White House to return the markets to a calm state in relation to the American monetary unit, but the situation is already playing against. Experts have already assessed the position and called the dollar "stably weak".
Added to the downfall was the statement by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that his department fully supports the policy of weakening the positions of the greens. valuable papers. On September 27, there was a slowdown in the fall, but neighboring currencies continued to grow, against the backdrop of a depreciation of the main American competitor.
The first minimum index of 88.87 was noted on the currency exchange, which has not been since November 2014. At the same time, the euro reached its peak readings of 1.2425 dollars, and the yen did not fall behind and increased its yield to 109.105 per US currency.
The commodity market was no exception and picked up an upward trend against the backdrop of a fall in the rate of green securities. There has been no such rise since 2016. On September 27, gold was marked on the stock exchange by a rise in price by $8.6. Silver rose to $17.68 per ounce of the metal.
Currency Strategist Yukio Ishizuki at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo, suggests that the third week of September for the US currency was held against the backdrop of pressure of expectations, the fact that Central banks Europe and Japan will be able to bounce back monetary policy. However, judging by the data of the Interbank Currency Exchange, the bears have begun to act in a completely new phase, especially against the backdrop of statements from the United States Treasury Department.
Now everyone is focused and waiting. What will the head of the European national bank Mavrio Draghi? Most likely, the latter will have to put a foot on the brake and stop the movement towards the normalization of monetary relations and policies. This is necessary to prevent the strengthening of the euro, which can only harm the European currency.Senior currency strategist Yukio Ishizuki says that many players will try to reduce their positions in relation to the European currency. But this will happen if the bank shows concern about the growth of the strength of the national currency. However, even such actions will not help the dollar return to its positions and the fall will continue.
Video "Why is the dollar falling?"
