Recently, the Belarusian ruble has been behaving unstable.the site, together with an expert, figured out how to save money and where it is better to invest personal savings.
The photo is illustrative. Photo: Vadim Zamirovsky, TUT.BY
If the amount of savings is less than 10 thousand dollars, there are two options: choose currency deposit or buy a bond with a small face value, the entrepreneur believes Victor Podgaisky.
- These options are better than keeping money at home in a stocking. They don't make any money there. The deposit will help not to lose funds and earn a little, bonds can bring 6-7 percent per annum. The main thing is to find a security with a small denomination, for example, a thousand dollars, says the entrepreneur Victor Podgaisky.
In Belarus, savings funds are still investments in foreign currency, the expert notes. With regard to deposits or bonds in Belarusian rubles, then here "it is impossible to predict whether it will work out."
- Let's suppose that in January we used a ruble deposit with a rate of ten percent. To date, the dollar has gained six percent since the beginning of the year. Experts predict that in December this figure will be eight to ten percent. If the exchange rate reaches the predicted value, in the end we will earn only two percent, as well as on a foreign currency deposit.
For passive investments, you need an amount of 10 thousand dollars. The optimal portfolio will consist of four instruments - a foreign currency deposit, foreign currency bonds, real estate and cryptocurrency.
— We can consider any amount and, if necessary, refuse some instruments. Forming an optimal portfolio, I would give 60% for bonds, 20% for real estate, 10% for foreign currency deposits and cryptocurrency, respectively.
The expert warns that this is the most high-risk investment.
Since January, the cryptocurrency has fallen in price against the dollar by about 40 percent. That is, the person who invested in it at the beginning of the year lost almost half of the money. On the other hand, there has already been a sharp drop, and today the cryptocurrency has found its niche, below which it is unlikely to fall. Most likely, it will either grow or be in such a state,” Viktor Podgaisky explains.
The expert advises a person who decides to invest in cryptocurrency to choose five different currencies (bitcoin, ether, etc.) and invest in them evenly.
- It is pointless to look for the most profitable option and choose only him. At the same time, in order to look for an unknown but profitable cryptocurrency, you need to be a professional in this topic and understand the intricacies. If we are talking about the top five, no global changes are taking place with it.
A foreign currency deposit will help you get up to two percent of the profit.
— Since the beginning of the year, this instrument has not changed in any way. There may be some growth ahead. As soon as the economy begins to grow more actively, additional finance will be needed for it. Then there will be a slight rise in the price of the credit resource, and after it, interest on deposits will rise by a few tenths,” the expert explains.
Since the beginning of the year, real estate has grown in price by about five percent, so this year the investment in this tool is justified, the expert notes. However, in most cases, it requires a certain amount, from one hundred thousand dollars.
- For 20 thousand you can buy a trading place or a small room in a business center. Some people do just that - they take 50 thousand, buy a "one-room apartment" and rent it out. But in the long run, it is not worth investing in one tool. In addition, real estate in terms of riskiness is in second place after cryptocurrency.
To get the required yield, it is also worth considering more long term investment - from a year.
- If the term is shorter, it will not give the expected effect. At a minimum, you need to complete the transaction itself and register the property, which incurs certain time and money costs. You may have to pay for outside help. If these costs are put in for a short period, they will eat up almost all profits.
An increase of about 5-6% is obtained under the condition that a person bought a property in January at an average price and sold it at the end of the year also at an average price. At the same time, income consists of two components - the growth in cost and money for renting out housing. From the amount received, you need to subtract the operating costs and tax burden for the amount of income.
Currency bonds bring income of 6-7% per annum. To date, this is the most profitable investment tool, the expert notes. In terms of reliability, it ranks second after the deposit. If a total amount savings up to one hundred thousand dollars, best solution will form a portfolio consisting of 20-30% of deposits and 70-80% of bonds.
— Since the beginning of the year, the stable situation with regard to bonds has hardly changed. The issuers are the state, banks and the corporate sector, therefore securities can be found for every taste. Government and bank bonds will bring 3.5-4% per annum, corporate - 6-7% per annum.
The only threat is that the country is expected to ban the issuance of such bonds, Viktor Podgaisky explains.
— Information that it is planned to ban the issue of foreign currency bonds appeared in the media at the end of July. Literally at the beginning of August, the Chairman of the Board of the National Bank said that a position had been worked out to limit emissions for all business entities, including banks.
That is, from all this it can be understood that there will definitely be a ban. When this will happen, we do not know exactly, the expert explains.
- Suppose we can hear on any day that from such and such a date, for example, from January 1, 2019, a ban on the issuance of foreign currency bonds is introduced. If we are tied to this date, it turns out that we have only three months left if we want to purchase the most highly profitable instrument in foreign currency that the republic currently has in our portfolio.
The bonds that are issued before the ban will not change in any way - the owners will still receive income from them. However, it will be impossible to issue new currency bonds.
- Only Belarusian rubles will remain. But if we want to save our funds and earn some money, only currency instruments allow us to do this. I am not a supporter of sudden movements, but in connection with the expected ban, I would take a closer look at the bonds of banks and commercial companies and give them 60% of my portfolio in order to receive these 6-7% per annum for a long period.
If a person decides to invest his money and form a portfolio after the ban on foreign currency bonds, it will be necessary to evaluate “a lot of factors,” the expert explains.
- most likely the most simple method there will be a purchase of bonds in Belarusian rubles. But everything will depend on the dollar exchange rate and its stability. From currency instruments there will also remain deposits or government securities with a yield of 2-3 percent.
Analyst's advice will help you not to get confused
Belarusians, who were looking forward to the end of a difficult and nervous 2016, could not breathe a sigh of relief. New Year came into his own, but ... it didn’t make anyone feel better. Position in Belarusian economy has not improved, has not become more calm and predictable in world markets. The Eurozone is still in a period of protracted risks, and in the United States, after winning the presidential election, Donald Trump and his administration are “turbiding the waters”.
World oil prices have turned up, but it is also not necessary to stay in confident invariance, perking up the spirit of the barrel. Accordingly, it is impossible to remain calm for firmness Russian currency, in close relationship with which is the native Belarusian "bunny".
In such a situation, how can the Belarusian population, whose savings have already been pretty depleted over the past two years, not be left without a “last shirt” and not make a mistake with a personal basket of currencies? In a difficult question - what is the best way to keep savings in 2017 - we tried to figure it out together with well-known domestic analysts Vadim Iosub and Zhanna Kulakova.
Here is how Vadim Iosub, a senior analyst at Alpari, comments on the situation and what ways out of it are offered:
Obviously, the world's hard currencies, from the point of view of savings, are a more reliable instrument than the Belarusian ruble. When deciding what to save personal savings in, it would be worth stopping at foreign currencies. From foreign currencies i would prefer US dollar .
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the future economic policy Donald Trump, there is a separation of powers in the United States, the Fed has a very high independence from the executive branch, from the President's administration. The long-term dynamics of the dollar largely depends on the decisions that the Fed will take.
In particular, in terms of the rate of increase in the interest rate. As it is now seen, the interest rate will rise, the only question is how many times the Fed will raise it - two or three before the end of the year. At the same time, in other regions, in particular in Europe, interest rates are at zero levels, and the printing press(the so-called quantitative easing operation is carried out).
I expect that the dollar will go up to the euro and other world currencies. Therefore, the dollar, from the point of view of savings, is the most reliable way out today. Especially when it comes to cash. You won’t earn much on a dollar deposit, but you can sleep peacefully.
Euro now, from my point of view, is not the strongest and most attractive currency. However, the issue of the collapse of the eurozone, and after it - single currency- not worth it. I think that political factors are traditionally overestimated - not the risk of Brexit, not the risk of some marginal forces coming to power in France, in fact, they will not affect the fate of the euro so much.
Most likely, the euro will gradually decline against the dollar . This will happen to a greater extent because the ECB continues to pursue a super-soft monetary policy, and most likely will continue to implement it at least until the end of 2017. These policies matter more to the euro than potential but, in my opinion, unlikely political upheavals. A portfolio of dollars and euros to store savings still doesn't look so bad.
The Russian ruble since last year - as oil prices rise - has shown a serious strengthening and has already returned against the dollar to the level of mid-2015. However, dependence Russian ruble oil has not disappeared.
No one can guarantee that oil will continue to grow. That's why the acquisition of the Russian ruble in order to store savings carries, from my point of view, high risks , Related possible fall oil prices. The Russian ruble, on the one hand, is a potentially highly profitable currency, on the other hand, it is a rather risky investment.
If oil prices start to rise, or at least feel stable, the Russian ruble will feel good. But, if oil goes down, the Russian ruble will go there as well. That's why National currency Russian Federation, from my point of view, the investment is more risky than the euro and, especially, the dollar.
Regarding the Belarusian ruble : the fact that our national currency is pegged to the Russian ruble is half the problem. How much worse that domestic economy rather directly depends on oil prices (not only through fluctuations of the Russian ruble).
Firstly, a significant part of Belarusian exports is the export of refined oil products, the prices of which are strongly linked to oil prices. The higher the oil prices, the higher the profitability of Belarusian oil refining, and vice versa.
Secondly, if we take Belarusian exports that are not related to the sale of oil products and potash fertilizers, then, again, they are closed to neighboring Russia. The main market for Belarusian exports is our neighboring federation. When oil falls in price, the Russian economy experiences problems - purchasing power decreases Russian enterprises which, in turn, are forced to reduce the demand for Belarusian products.
In this way, the Belarusian national currency, along with the Russian ruble, carries the risk of falling oil prices . If such a fall takes place, the Belarusian ruble will weaken, first of all, against the dollar and the euro. And taking into account our inflation rates, potential risks of devaluation, there is no point in keeping the Belarusian ruble “under the pillow” .
At the same time, a slightly different picture is observed with deposits in Belarusian rubles. Taking into account the fact that the rates on deposits in Belarusian rubles are significantly higher than the rates in foreign currency, and previous year profitability of deposits in Belarusian rubles confidently outpaced inflation , and the profitability of deposits in foreign currency, such an instrument as deposits in Belarusian rubles, I would still consider for savings.
A savings portfolio could look like this: 50% - a deposit in Belarusian rubles, another 50% - a deposit in dollars. Of foreign currencies, the most reliable - American dollar, in terms of profitability - deposits in Belarusian rubles are the most interesting.
And here is what Zhanna Kulakova, an expert analyst at TeleTrade in Belarus, thinks about the behavior of currencies in 2017:
If we are talking about long-term savings, then I recommend dividing the savings approximately equally between 3-4 currencies. It can be the dollar, the euro and the Belarusian ruble, in addition, the Russian ruble can also be added to this “basket”. Practice shows that at different times different currencies show the best performance.
If we recall 2016, the first quarter turned out to be unsuccessful for the Belarusian ruble, but in the second or third quarter the national currency looked very attractive. The Russian ruble felt confident for almost the entire year, with the exception of the first quarter. The euro showed good dynamics in the first half of the year, the dollar - in the fourth quarter.
It is unlikely that there will be many people who would be able to predict all these changes in a timely manner and carry out the conversion at the most opportune moment. And those who kept their savings in different currencies did not exactly lose out. Especially if these different currencies were not kept “under the pillow”, but on deposits or in other investment instruments.
It is difficult to single out a clear favorite or a clear outsider among currencies in 2017 . This year is notable for the fact that the dynamics of currencies will be largely determined by political rather than economic factors. From a macroeconomic point of view, the outlook for the euro is unlikely to look worse than that for the dollar.
It is unlikely that the Fed will implement the promised cycle of three key rate hikes, but the ECB, although it has not made loud statements, may begin cautious tightening in the foreseeable future monetary policy. The "soft" measures of the European regulator are practically exhausted, and economic indicators are improving: according to the latest data, inflation in annual terms reached 1.8%, and the growth rate of the EU economy outpaced that of the US economy (1.7% vs. 1.6%). What is not a reason to slowly curtail the quantitative easing of the economy?
The oil market is stabilizing Russian economy go foreign investment, so the Russian ruble also feels good. In addition, there are prerequisites for the strengthening of the Russian ruble exclusively on Belarusian market even if the global market trends are different.
But politics can interfere in the matter: in 2017, presidential elections will be held in France and parliamentary elections in Germany, a start will be made practical implementation Brexit. It is still not clear what to expect from Trump. The first reaction of the markets to his victory was optimistic, but now this optimism has subsided. Investors are wondering if Trump's protectionism will harm the US currency? Moreover, the new president has already managed to express his dissatisfaction with a too strong dollar against the backdrop of a too weak euro.
For all three of the above currencies, growth factors are visible, but there are also risk factors. I think that in relation to foreign currencies the best solution would be to split the savings between them approximately in equal shares and follow the news so that in the event of an exacerbation of certain risks, “leave” for a more reliable currency.
The trade dependence of Belarus on Russia has not decreased over the past few years, so the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble still depends on the situation on foreign exchange market Russia. The situation there is stabilizing, and external risks for the ruble are becoming less. It cannot be said that they do not exist at all - after all, the oil market can still surprise us, especially in the second half of the year, when the OPEC agreement on production cuts expires.
Another potential risk to the oil market is Trump's policies. It is possible that he will be engaged in the revival of the shale industry in the United States, as a result of which the world will once again face an excess supply of oil. But in the coming months, external risks for the ruble are still small.
As for internal Belarusian risks, they are connected with the high demand of the state for foreign currency. Every year, several billion dollars are required to service the foreign currency public debt. At the moment, one of the main donors for this is the population, which actively sells the currency.
Foreign trade actually does not bring foreign exchange earnings - at the end of 2016, the balance of goods and services was negative at the level of $50 million. Minus is small, but still not a plus. There is another important source of currency - this is borrowing in the domestic and foreign markets.
This year, it is important for the Belarusian ruble that the population remains a net seller of currency, and that all planned borrowings can be carried out - these are EFSD credit tranches, as well as the placement of government bonds on the domestic and foreign markets. If everything goes according to plan, the ruble promises to remain relatively stable, it is unlikely to weaken more than 5-8%. If the plans do not come true, the ruble will weaken faster.
At the moment, the planned increase in salaries to $500 and political tensions in relations with partners in the EAEU inspire concern. The first factor may lead to an increase in the demand for foreign currency on the part of the population, the second - to make it difficult to obtain credit tranches.
The opinion of analysts was prepared for you by Elena Kovaleva
Suppose a person has the equivalent of $1,000. Based on what criteria should he decide where it is better to keep this money - at home under his pillow or in a bank?
The first question that a person needs to answer is in what currency he wants to keep his savings: in foreign or in Belarusian rubles. If he decides to keep in foreign currency, then now the rates for foreign currency deposits are not much higher than half a percent per annum. Therefore, such a contribution will bring a fairly modest income. In this case, there is no fundamental difference where to keep the money - at home under the pillow or in the bank. It's actually a matter of taste.
If a person decides to keep savings in rubles, then leaving serious amounts under the pillow has never made much sense and does not have now. Rates on ruble deposits are consistently decreasing, but they are still quite interesting. They are almost twice the current inflation.
At the same time, in each specific case, it is necessary to analyze how long a person can freeze money on a deposit. The most interesting maximum rates are for long-term irrevocable deposits. If a person knows that he can afford to put money in the bank for the next two years and he will not need it, then you need to opt for such a deposit.
If a person is not sure that he can freeze such an amount for a long time, then he must remember that for short-term and revocable, and even more so for short-term and revocable deposits, the rates are not so interesting. They hardly exceed the existing inflation.
The question of what currency to keep savings in is a matter of preference only, or can experts advise which currency to choose?
No expert can see into the future. He predicts it, but does not know for sure. Therefore, I think any normal experts would agree that the best principle is diversification. That is, part of the savings can be stored in foreign currency, part - in Belarusian rubles.
There were moments in our history when it was natural to completely get rid of the Belarusian ruble, when the ruble was constantly falling against foreign currencies, there was inflation. Now the ruble is strengthening against the dollar more than a year, since January 2016. Therefore, the tactics of completely avoiding the ruble has lost its relevance.
Given the relatively high interest rates on the ruble, in general, it would be possible to recommend the Belarusian ruble at this stage as the predominant savings currency. But remembering how many times in history people have been burned by the collapse of the ruble, it is hard to advise them to get rid of the currency in favor of the Belarusian ruble, despite the fact that such behavior might be rational from an economic point of view. Such behavior is difficult psychologically.
Therefore, in order to maintain a balance between profitability and psychological comfort, it is reasonable to divide savings into ruble and currency parts.
According to the National Bank, in April 2017, the average rates on ruble deposits of the population reached a historic low. What does it mean? For ordinary person who has a ruble contribution, is that bad?
This means that rates are consistently decreasing and have reached a minimum. Most deposits have floating rates, which decrease following the refinancing rate. But I would like to draw your attention to the fact that it is not the nominal, but the real interest rate that matters for the depositor.
The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate adjusted for inflation. A simple question: is the 20% deposit rate good or bad? If the deposit rate is 20%, and inflation is 30%, then it's bad. If the deposit rate is 20%, and inflation is 10%, then it's good.
Since the beginning of the year, the National Bank has been reducing the refinancing rate, which means that deposit rates have been reduced. But at the same time, inflation was falling rapidly. Therefore, real yield, that is, how much a person actually earns on deposits, does not decline as fast as nominal rates decline.
- What should you pay attention to when choosing a bank? How to decide on an investment?
In Belarus, there is a rather unique situation when deposits in banks are guaranteed by the state. Therefore, from my point of view, unlike Ukraine, Russia, we have practically no risk of this or that bank. We, roughly speaking, have a common risk banking system, which rests on the solvency of the state itself.
Based on this, Belarusians are in a unique comfortable situation. It seems to me that now it is not worth analyzing the solvency of a particular bank, you can concentrate on choosing the maximum profitability.
- And if a person has not 2,000 rubles, but only 200, does it make sense to carry them to the bank?
In simply taking 200 rubles, taking them to the bank and leaving there, probably, a large economic sense no. But if a person has a regular income and it is such that it allows not only to eat up all the money, but also to save monthly, it makes sense to start. Take 200 rubles to the bank and then replenish the account monthly. If a person has chosen such a tactic, he should pay attention to whether it will be possible to regularly replenish the account.
So, let's say that we are the happy owners of several hundreds/thousands/tens of thousands (underline as appropriate) of brand new denominated Belarusian rubles smelling of paint. This is money that we are guaranteed not to need in the near future.
In my opinion, they usually make up somewhere between 10-50% of all available. How best to manage them? I have my own opinion on this matter.
As strange as it may sound, money is like food. Both those and others can be in excess or in short supply, can bring benefit or harm to a person, and also have a bad property - to deteriorate over time.
In order to prevent food from spoiling, people came up with refrigerators and a cookbook. With money, the situation is much more complicated. Therefore, we will consider this issue in more detail. In order for the money not to deteriorate, it must either be used (spent) or conserved in order to be used in the future to buy something big and valuable or during a period when difficult times come.
American entrepreneur and millionaire Robert Kiyosaki said: "Take care of your money and they will take care of you."
Let's define the main types of care, conservation and increase of money available to the absolute majority of our citizens:
Other types, including various bonds, trust management of funds, opening your own business, playing on the Forex exchange and others that require certain knowledge and skills, are not massive.
And the sums of the majority of our fellow citizens, unfortunately, are too modest for such investments. For this reason, we will not consider them.
Keeping money in a safe / jar / glass jar- the easiest way, but it is also the most irrational. Keeping money at home is not safe, experienced criminals will find our hiding place in a closet or under a mattress in two minutes. We will have to pay for the rent of a safe deposit box at the bank.
There are also cases of infection of banknotes with mold and various fungi. And to top it all off, our cash inflation will kick in.
You can, of course, convert rubles into foreign currency. But inflation affects her too. Agree, $ 100 now and they are 20 years ago - this is heaven and earth. Purchasing power differs significantly.
Storage on a foreign currency deposit account can rather be considered as a tool for saving the accumulated, rather than for obtaining tangible additional income. On a deposit account, unlike a depository cell, our money is not afraid of any diseases and viruses. No one will steal or eat them (I want to believe in it, because no one has canceled force majeure situations).
The maximum rate on deposits in foreign currency is 4%, for which we will have to say goodbye to money for two whole years! When placed for a period of less than two years, we will definitely be withheld income tax.
And the 4% declared by banks will turn into real ~ 3.5%. And this is somehow not very interesting. Therefore, in the current realities, a deposit in foreign currency can be considered as the safest and most convenient way saving money. Judging by the data of the National Bank, the majority of our compatriots think so too.
Storage on a deposit account in Belarusian rubles- most profitable investment funds today, but it is also quite risky. Unfortunately, rates of 50% per annum have gone into oblivion. But in the old days of such fabulous income on deposits, the risks of “flying like thin wood over the capital of France” were also very high :)
In such cases, intuition was needed.
In the current economic situation in a country when the government predicts that in 2017 the growth rate of the gross domestic product of Belarus will be 1.5%, and inflation will not exceed 9%, one also wants to be an optimist. In the near foreseeable future, analysts and experts also do not predict serious financial cataclysms for us.
Of course, one can be skeptical about these forecasts, but for Last year the government did not give us any reason to doubt our determination to achieve these targets. The refinancing rate is systematically decreasing, followed by a decrease in interest rates on loans and deposits.
Therefore, those adventurous thrill-seekers who have not yet had time to jump into the last twenty percent car of the deposit train should hurry up. More and more offers appear with variable rates, less and less - with fixed ones. And this is no accident...
We didn’t have time to jump into the “30%” car (and in vain, as time has shown), so we’ll throw what we don’t feel sorry for risking, all our temporarily “unnecessary” hundreds and thousands of rubles, into the “20%” car. It remains the case for small: to choose a train.
To do this, we will turn to Infobank for help and study the topic “Top-5 best deposits", or use the search.
We choose a period of 1 year (in order not to pay income tax on interest), the rest of the items can be changed. If we need funds not earlier than in 12 months, then, having studied all the options offered, we can choose the following deposits from the whole variety for our case.
| № p/n |
Name of bank and deposit, interest rate | Term, | Capitalization %, the possibility of replenishment |
| 1 | Belagroprombank OJSC Irrevocable "Standard" in Belarusian rubles (20.5% floating) |
370 days | Yes Yes |
| 2 | MTBank CJSC Irrevocable "MTBelki 12 months" in Belarusian rubles (SR+2% floating) |
12 months | yes, twice a month No |
| 3 | Bank Moscow - Minsk OAO Irrevocable "Capital" in Belarusian rubles for 12 months (CP + 2% floating) |
12 months | Yes Yes |
Revocable deposits were not included in the comparison table, because even in the absence of a reduced interest upon early termination, they are significantly inferior in attractiveness to irrevocable ones.
As can be seen from the table, maximum bet is floating in all banks.
However, we already know that the refinancing rate will soon be reduced, which will lead to lower interest rates on deposits. The only deposit that is not tied to it is in Belagroprombank.
"Experienced depositors" will not lie that the bank, if possible, even tries to maintain a floating rate on deposits at a level not lower than the market. Therefore, I think that the choice should be stopped on it.
Funds that will not be needed in the coming year can be put on the "Standard" deposit for 370 days. More recently, it has become possible to replenish it. I consider this an added plus.
I consider it expedient to place the funds that may be needed during this year on the revocable deposit of the same bank “25 years together”. The deposit rate is 16% fixed for the first 95 days, then floating.
However, after the specified period, the deposit can be withdrawn at any time without recalculation of interest on reduced rate. In my opinion, due to the absence of any alternatives in the form of previously convenient savings cards also a good option. The deposit can be replenished, and can be terminated, if necessary.
It remains to complete the picture to assess the currency risks and the profitability of the deposit in rubles when the exchange rate changes. Because our deposits are floating interest rate, then it will be problematic to estimate, but we will believe that the rate will remain unchanged for all 370 days. Gotta hope for the best :)
Again, let's use the help of Infobank and compare the "Standard" deposit with its rate of 20.5% and some of the most profitable ones today currency deposit with a rate of 4%. (let's say it's the first of two years).
It turns out:
Now we can only hope that we didn’t jump into this last car in vain, that the train driver knows the way, and that the Belarusian partisans have long been retrained as peaceful bank employees :)
P. S. Request to those who have read until the end, do not take what is written as a guide to action, this is just my opinion, but take note, I think it will not be superfluous;)
If you ask Belarusians what currency they usually keep their savings in, the answer will be “dollar”. Meanwhile, many will note that a few years ago they could buy more for $100 than now: the American currency itself is also gradually depreciating. Maybe you should invest in Swiss francs? Or gold, which skyrocketed in price?
- There are enough reliable currencies in the world that can protect savings from devaluation risks,- Zhanna Kulakova, an expert analyst of the official partner of TeleTrade in Belarus, explains. - Now you should beware of investing in commodity currencies, such as, for example, the Canadian dollar or Norwegian krone, as the commodity market is still unstable.
But the Swiss franc or yen look quite tempting. By the end of this year, the Chinese yuan may become attractive - the inclusion of the yuan in the list of reserve currencies, most likely, will lead to an increase in demand for this currency, since central banks will begin to form foreign exchange reserves in yuan. Against this background, the yuan will strengthen. However, a gradual devaluation of the yuan is not ruled out in the next few months, so now is not a very good time to buy. It is better to do this towards the end of the current year.
- What are the dangers of keeping funds in such, say, exotic currencies for Belarusians?
- Investments in such exotic currencies have a downside - it is not clear where to place the funds. Our banks do not have deposits in yuan or yen, so the money will have to be kept "in a stocking", which means that they will not be protected from inflation. You can try to place them in foreign bank, but it is quite troublesome and costly. These currencies may be of interest to those who are fond of investments and try to use as many different financial instruments to minimize risks. And if a person is faced with a choice - or usual dollar, or exotic yuan - then, of course, it is better to choose the dollar.
With exotic currencies, it's understandable. Now the price of gold has skyrocketed. If last December the price tag was at the level of $1100 per troy ounce, now the price fluctuates at the level of $1280. Is it worth investing in it?
- Investments in gold, in my opinion, may be of particular interest to those who primarily seek to preserve capital, and not to gain additional income. The peculiarity of gold is that it is tangible asset which cannot be completely depreciated under any circumstances. At the same time, investments in gold must be long-term.
The fact is that banks sell bullion for much more than they buy. The difference between the purchase and sale prices often reaches 20-30%, which means that in order for the metal to make a profit, it needs to rise in price by at least the same 20-30%. This is only possible in the long term.
You also need to understand that an investment may not bring profit at all: gold prices can not only rise, but also fall. Since 2011, the metal has fallen in price by 35%, so those who invested in gold 5 years ago now have a significant loss.
On the other hand, gold brought significant profits to those who bought it before the start of the global financial crisis in 2007. During the period from 2007 to 2011, gold has risen in price by almost 3 times. The rise in prices was due to the fact that frightened depositors, who lost confidence in currencies, actively invested in the metal. Gold has the reputation of a "safe haven" that will always protect savings from crises.
Over the past few months, gold has been gradually rising in price, but the prospects for rapid growth I do not see. World economy is recovering from the crisis, currencies look quite reliable, so there is no rush demand for gold on the market. I think that in the next year or two the metal will not bring high profits. However, for long-term investments, gold is an interesting tool in which up to 10-20% of savings can be directed.
