“We are hoarding. As long as we have reserves, we are respected in the world"
Tatyana Golikova tells where the pension reform has stalled, how to limit the salaries of managers of state-owned companies and what kind of optimization the state apparatus needs
Tatyana Golikova almost a universal official - she was responsible for the budget in the Ministry of Finance, and then fought with former colleagues, engaged in social policy, worked in the government and the Kremlin. Last years she controls the officials with whom she previously worked. Knowing the problems from the inside, she knows where to look. And he sees the key defect of power. Officials are afraid of responsibility - the main thing is to enlist the support of the leader, and not to offer a solution and be responsible for it, she describes the situation in an interview with Vedomosti.
– Accounts Chamber criticized the project federal budget for 2018–2020 in his conclusion, noting that his foundation - the macro forecast - is very shaky. Is the budget that unrealistic?
– We do not criticize, but assess possible risks. Included in the draft budget GDP growth gave rise to many questions. The government expects the economy to grow by 2.1% in 2017, and accelerate to 2.3% by 2020, counting on investment to be the main driver. Minister economic development Maxim Oreshkin believes that this summer we have been growing due to investment, especially in construction. But Rosstat revised last year's volume of work in construction and increased it by 1 trillion rubles. – against this background, the indicators for the first nine months of 2017 worsened, and it is doubtful that investment in construction will show such an increase, especially if we exclude large construction projects – stadiums, the Kerch bridge, the Power of Siberia gas pipeline.
The Ministry of Economic Development expected the economy to grow by 2.2% in the III quarter, but the preliminary estimate of Rosstat is noticeably lower - 1.8%, for nine months - only 1.6%. In order for the forecast included in the 2017 budget to come true, in October-December the economy, according to our estimates, should grow by 3.6%. Of course, there will be wage increases, payments under contracts, seasonal growth in consumer spending, but this is not enough. But this is the basis for calculating the budget for 2018–2020.
The Ministry of Economic Development expects that investments will grow in the next three years, thanks, among other things, to the infrastructure mortgage program, the “project financing factory” and support for small and medium-sized businesses. But what contribution they will make to growth is not estimated in the forecast. We heard only Oreshkin's assessments in his speeches. At the same time, the program concessional lending small and medium-sized businesses, according to the forecast, will be completed in January 2019, and the “factory”, which implies state guarantees for 294 billion rubles, given our bureaucracy, will not start working right away. At best, in the middle of 2018, and the effect of it will manifest itself either in the medium or long term. Infrastructure mortgage for three years will give 1 trillion rubles. investments, the ministry is waiting, but it does not disclose how this trillion is formed.
At the same time, although the growth rates in the scenarios (base and target) of the forecast are different, the structural measures in them are the same, and their contribution in the target scenario is for some reason smaller (it provides for higher GDP growth. - Vedomosti) than in the base one. Perhaps just carelessness. We suggested either adding more structural measures to the target forecast or overestimating their impact. Colleagues left it without comment.
- Alexei Kudrin, chairman of the Center for Strategic Research, believes that the budget rule can be relaxed - to set the cut-off price not at $40, but at $45 per barrel. Doesn't the rule seem strict to you?
- It does not seem. Next year will be transitional and we will continue spending the National Wealth Fund (NWF). The strict rule will come into effect in 2019, only then will we start replenishing the NWF. We have significantly eaten up our reserves, and we shouldn't forget that the National Welfare Fund is also intended for the long-term balance of the pension system.
We save because we hedge possible risks with reserves. As long as we have reserves, we are respected in the world. But as soon as they are reset to zero, we find ourselves in an absolutely risky zone, including because of the sanctions imposed against us. In addition, while there are no long-term proposals on the pension system and its balance, the solution of this issue is also constantly being postponed.
- Kudrin believes that a softer rule will give room for budgetary maneuver - an increase in spending on healthcare, education, infrastructure.
- The devil is in the details. Aleksey Leonidovich, apparently, proposes to cut "unproductive" spending on defense and security in favor of "productive" spending on education and health care. But I do not agree that spending on defense and security is unproductive. There are purchases, construction, social support, military pensions, healthcare, education. Many defense enterprises are city-forming. Products of the military-industrial complex make up 5.4% of our exports, although not much, but there is an upward trend. This is a high-tech production.
If we redistribute money in favor of health care and education, then which ones - the federal or the consolidated budget? Health care is financed by the federal compulsory medical insurance fund and regional budgets, education - budgets of all levels: higher - the Federation, secondary special - regions, general - municipalities. Should powers be redistributed by raising them partially to the federal level? And from whom to take away - from the defense?
- Yes, and to stretch the armaments program, as suggested by Kudrin.
- They stretched it out even under Kudrin [he was the Minister of Finance until September 2011], they gave state guarantees to defense enterprises. And in 2016-2017. they were executed ahead of schedule so that in the future not to spend federal budget resources on subsidizing interest rates on commercial loans attracted under state guarantees.
- So you think the cost structure is optimal?
- I don't think so. I'm talking about something else. It is impossible to solve the problems of pensions and health care only by increasing funding. System social insurance not yet ready for modernization.
Most of Alexey Leonidovich's proposals are correct. Both in the strategy-2020 and in the main directions of the government's activities, everything is written well and correctly. But there can be no proposals without implementation mechanisms. Because of this, it is not possible to fully implement these programs already in the first year of their implementation.
Any program requires answers to difficult questions: for example, whether to raise the retirement age, whether to introduce co-payments for certain services.
The pension law does not work
- The pension system was reformed five years ago. What is the result?
- The new procedure for calculating the insurance pension (point formula), with the introduction of which the latest pension reform was largely associated, did not work. This procedure formally entered into force on January 1, 2016, but the indexation of pensions in accordance with the new formula has never been taken, there have always been one-time decisions. This will also be the case in 2018. The procedure for calculating the pension coefficient (point) has not yet been approved, although such a requirement is established by law.
I stand on a formal position: the law was written, it is not being implemented. Either adopt the Retirement Point methodology, or abandon the formula that doesn't work and come up with a new one.
The same applies to the reform of early pensions. A special assessment of working conditions did not cover the bulk of jobs with harmful and difficult working conditions. The idea to shift the responsibility for early pensions from the state to employers, formalized by law, has not been implemented.
There was another good idea: to evaluate the effectiveness of all benefits in the pension system and social insurance. Reduced tariffs are offset by an interbudgetary transfer from the federal budget to the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation, the Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund and the Social Insurance Fund (FSS). There is an opinion that benefits work in some industries, but not in others. But their effectiveness has not yet been evaluated.
And most importantly, it was not possible to solve the main strategic task: to achieve a long-term financial stability pension system. The pension system cannot be developed in isolation, in isolation from the entire system compulsory insurance and labor relations systems.
- And what options are there to balance the pension system? Is it possible to hang a fixed part of the pension on the budget, as was the case in the 2000s?
I was an opponent of that system, and at one time I convinced Alexei Leonidovich [Kudrin] and Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin] to abandon it. In the legislation then in force, the pension was divided into three parts: basic, insurance and funded, each of which was assigned its own source. The insurance premium was deducted from the single social tax(UST), which was collected by the tax service, and insurance premiums- FIU. The basic part was provided by UST receipts, insurance and funded - by insurance premiums. And then the UST was lowered, and the basic pension turned out to be in deficit: it was unnoticeable, because the deficit was within the federal budget. The basic pension was supposed to be no less than the average Russian subsistence minimum for a pensioner. Each time it was calculated, and the deficit within the federal budget grew.
It became obvious that it was no longer possible to keep such a deficit within the budget and that the pension system needed to be balanced. We decided to make the pension unified and raise the insurance premium. As an alternative, they considered the temporary fixing of some federal tax so that part of it goes to replenish the pension system during a period of demographic failure. After all, the basic pension within the federal budget has already increased the deficit, which means it was covered by other federal budget revenues, and not just the UST. They refused to fix the tax, insurance rates in certain areas - IT, agriculture, and other areas - they reduced it, and an inter-budget transfer had to be introduced. It seemed right then.
If we return to such a mechanism, and we index the basic pension not according to the formula, but according to living wage pensioner or inflation - it must somehow be called. Social? But the social pension is assigned 5 years later than the insurance one and is not paid during the period of work. Break the pension - pay one like this, the other that way? Nobody answers these questions. And they are sensitive to the population.
Let's decide what decision we are ready for. After all, you still have to optimize something. Let's define in the economic development program: this is what we do as a priority and we spend resources on it, but somewhere we will have to tighten up. And we will begin to explain in advance, without scaring people with the fact that tomorrow they will raise their retirement age or take something away. On such sensitive issues it is necessary to be in a public dialogue.
Okay, what to change? Officials are discussing an accelerated increase in seniority instead of retirement age. Will this help solve the problems of the pension system?
The design of the previous pension formula assumed mechanisms for stimulating later retirement without changing the generally established retirement age. But as we said earlier, now the formula has been changed.
In my opinion, an increase in the duration of the insurance period is not a way to long-term balance the PFR budget. This indicator should correspond to the life cycle of the majority of the Russian population (duration of working age and working career).
We must not forget that an increase in the retirement age and seniority will also entail a larger amount of pension rights formed upon retirement, so the sources of new payments in the long term should be clearly defined.
But some solution is needed.
Social benefits and payments need systematization - so far there is no exhaustive list in this part. Individuals may be eligible for both federal and state benefits. The regions "adapted": if there is a duplicate federal benefit, they shift the responsibility to the center. This is very common in pharmaceuticals. So in the regions, optimization of social support has taken place.
A unified accounting system will make it possible to understand how many types of social support an individual person receives - no matter if it is regional or federal, how much medicine he receives, how much he pays for housing and communal services, etc. Without knowing this, it is wrong to cancel or upgrade benefits.
- How could the costs be redistributed?
- Now expenses are planned from the base - you need to take courage and abandon this principle, for example, in 2019 with the adoption of 83 federal law, the term “state task” appeared in the budget legislation - the formation of the volume of budget allocations based on determining the cost of public services (work) and the number of such services. The state task has replaced the budget estimate. At the same time, the state task does not include expenses for the purchase of equipment, major repairs and investments.
As a rule, the transition to the state task, in terms of determining the cost of services, is carried out using the reverse counting method, from the already achieved level of appropriations divided by the number of services. This has led to different cost of services for identical events and disruption of competition in the public sector.
In the structure of the state task, the largest amount of expenses falls on wages, therefore, as a rule, despite the existing distortions, when optimizing costs, the state task is not subject to reduction, but the amount of funds for equipment decreases, overhauls which ultimately leads to non-compliance with the modern requirements of the infrastructure of the educational process, the process of providing medical care. Obviously, this needs to be changed, confirmation of this is the depreciation of fixed assets for 2016 in education - 47.9%, in healthcare and the provision of social services - 56%. The renewal rate is at a low level and has been declining over the past three years. The share of investments in education decreased from 2.2% in 2007 to 1.4% in 2016, in healthcare - from 2.7% in 2006 to 1.2% in 2016.
Almost 5 years have passed since the regional healthcare modernization programs ended in 2013. Statistics for 2016 show that 31% of medical organizations do not have running water, 35.5% - sewerage, 40.5% - central heating, 10,900 buildings are rented. 33% of X-ray machines in Russian clinics have been operating for more than 10 years and need to be replaced, the same applies to 24.6% of ultrasound machines and 52.7% of equipment for laboratory diagnostics. Today it is the powers of the regions. The MHI tariff provides for current expenses - salaries, utilities, communication, transport, equipment no more than 100 thousand rubles, medicines. Everything that costs more than 100,000 rubles should be financed from the budget.
Until we establish the correct proportion and structure of expenses, we do not interest businesses in investing in these areas, the quality of public services will not increase.
Elusive state companies
In your conclusion to the budget, you pointed out that the government overestimated by 700 billion rubles. income from dividends of state-owned companies. The budget includes revenues based on the fact that state-owned companies will direct 50% of their profits to dividends. Why do the estimates of the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Property Management Agency diverge, and why is it not possible to achieve this from state-owned companies?
The budget is formed on the basis of the current legislation, in which there is a norm - at least 25% is directed to dividends net profit. The 50% requirement was an anti-crisis measure of budget consolidation, which the Ministry of Finance included in the Main Directions of the Budget, Tax and Customs Tariff Policy for 2018-2020, which were approved by the government.
Of course, deductions in the form of dividends in the amount of 50% of the net profit of enterprises should be assessed positively for the budget, but we must not forget about the need for the development of companies. As practice has shown, on the basis of certain decisions of the Government, it was allowed to reduce the norm for transferring dividends, in 2016 - by 12 joint-stock companies, in 2017 - by 9.
Need to define new order, which sets the range and criteria for changing the volume of dividends. For example, while a state-owned company is implementing a large investment project, it pays reduced dividends for the first two or three years, then the standard increases.
Maybe the Accounts Chamber should focus on checking state-owned companies, not ministries? After all, both dividends and tariffs depend on them.
We include annual checks in relation to our companies, but we cannot include all of them. This requires a very large human resource. It is necessary to throw a huge number of people to check the same Gazprom, and my constant control is needed.
- Are there any political obstacles?
There are no political obstacles to inspections of state-owned companies. We have inspections of state-owned companies, but not total, but in certain areas, primarily when it comes to the allocation of budget funds.
The salaries of managers of state-owned companies are very high - we are talking not only about management, but also about middle managers. And these companies say that they do not have enough money for dividends, and sometimes they ask for budget money.
Companies must limit the amount of remuneration - either based on KPI or directive from the board of directors. Of course, we see that salaries are high. We invite profile officials who are members of the boards [of directors] of these companies - they themselves do not always see this. Somewhere we even managed to influence the situation through them. By the way, in a huge number of cases, hired auditors do not notice the increase in salaries.
Escape from responsibility
Various concepts of economic development are being discussed - Kudrin, Oreshkin, Titov, [Presidential Aide Andrei] Belousov - but they will not develop a unified one. When will the final document be discussed, and will there be one at all?
In any case, there should be such a document. After all, it will form the basis of the strategy of the president elected for the future term and the new government.
But everyone seems to be running from it.
Probably because along with good decisions it will be necessary to accept difficult ones, yes, and the views on economic policy of the listed authors do not always coincide.
- Can the project approach change the work of the state apparatus?
The idea is correct. The issue is implementation - state programs were also the right idea, but it was so bureaucratized that it turned out to be impossible to implement. Until you go through all the circles of hell fiscal year ended, amendments are made to the budget and everything starts all over again.
- Do you need a reform of the state apparatus or political will to make unpopular decisions?
The state apparatus must be optimized - not only officials, but also institutions, off-budget funds. Where is superfluous, and where is not enough, is already clear. Many are afraid of responsibility: for them, the first task is to enlist the support of the leader, instead of offering solutions and being responsible for them.
My approach: first I try to solve the problem myself, and only then, when I understand that I need more will high level I go to management. And I solve problems not because I was instructed to do it, but because I see that it is impossible to postpone.
Tatyana Lomskaya, Elizaveta Bazanova, Margarita Papchenkova, Philipp Sterkin
The interview was published in the Vedomosti newspaper on November 30, 2017
Head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov / Photo: Ministry of Industry and Trade
The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov gave an interview to the Vedomosti newspaper.
- You have just returned from the investment forum in Sochi - what can you say in hot pursuit?
- I think all representatives government controlled attending the forum, a rich and productive dialogue took place with regional authorities and the business community. Quite difficult issues were dissected and submitted for public discussion - for example, tax regulation. An important topic that was raised at the forum, including Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, was the need to fine-tune the schemes of interaction with the regions, which will serve as a significant catalyst for the development of the country's economy. On the part of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, this is primarily the creation of an effective system of industrial enterprises that would meet the needs of both the present and the future of the coming years. Emergence of new industries, improvement of the technological level of enterprises is impossible without sites with prepared industrial infrastructure in the regions. From 2012 to 2017, the number of industrial parks operating and being created increased by more than 2.5 times, from 64 to 166. Now the task is to equalize their number across the country, to help each region create its own competitive advantages.
I will give an example with production building materials. The industry came under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Industry and Trade not so long ago - and passed in a very dramatic state. For a number of positions, production significantly exceeded demand. When we started detailed monitoring, the imbalance became obvious: in some regions, several enterprises producing similar products were found. Now we are creating interactive map construction industries - and this is only one of the measures that will contribute to an adequate recovery of the industry and the harmonization of supply and demand.
Special investment contracts are another example of a successful form of partnership between government and business. At the forum, by the way, a number of such agreements were concluded between regions and large companies. This is a powerful synergistic process. For example, the world leader in the production of wind turbines Vestas signed a contract with the Ulyanovsk region. In addition to investments of 1.4 billion rubles. and more than 200 new jobs is a contribution to the development of green energy in the country. That is, there is an incentive for development in several directions at once. It is important for us not just to solve local problems, but to fit them into global state and world processes. And here we cannot do without the help of business and the regions.
– What is the forecast for growth industrial production in 2018?
- Last year, the index of industrial production was in the positive zone and for the year, according to Rosstat, amounted to 101%. And in our industries, growth is at the level of 2%. Sectors that are not under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, but at the same time have an impact on the manufacturing industry, sank slightly. In particular, the production of beverages has declined and a serious decline in the production of tobacco products.
I think that in 2018 we will see positive dynamics in the main types of manufacturing industry. Growth is expected in the production of medicines, motor vehicles, as well as furniture, leather and leather goods. The short-term negative trend that we observed at the end of 2017 has been reversed, which is already reflected in the statistics for January: the industrial production index amounted to 102.9%, while in manufacturing it reached 104.7%. Of course, we understand that such indicators are largely due to the effect of the low base in December, and we do not focus on them when forecasting the results of the year. But, I repeat, we expect that the result for the year will be positive.
– Is there a need for the devaluation of the ruble?
- Here it is necessary first of all to take into account how the ruble exchange rate affects various industrial enterprises. The overvalued ruble is beneficial for enterprises with a low level of localization, while the priorities of our industrial policy are to deepen it.
The strengthening of the ruble somewhat complicates import substitution, slows down the pace, and there is a certain concern of Russian and foreign investors about this. It also reduces operating profit for exporters selling products for foreign currency. For most industries, in order for import substitution and export projects to be effective, a comfortable exchange rate is at the level of 60–62 rubles/$.
– Do you see an increase in the production of oil and gas equipment? Oilmen fear that the stabilization of oil prices will lead to overinvestment in the industry.
– Having formed with the Ministry of Energy an interdepartmental working group, we have coordinated the work of oil and gas equipment customers, developers, manufacturers. Over the past two years, there has been a steady trend - the growth of both orders and production. Why did this happen? The sanctions spurred our companies to focus on the Russian manufacturer.
Now our task is to effectively master the amount of equipment that we want to replace with a foreign manufacturer. If oil prices remain at the current level with the limitation of production, there will be more and more prerequisites for the development of domestic oil and gas engineering. In 2017, this market grew in the country by 1%, and the production of Russian equipment - by 2.4%.
- Vladimir Putin's presidential term is coming to an end. Have you fulfilled all of his May decrees?
– We tried to cope, despite the fact that in 2012 there were other conditions, a different socio-economic situation. There were difficult years 2014-2016, but last year gives grounds for optimism.
Several directions are assigned to the Ministry of Industry and Trade. The most socially significant is the production according to the list of vital and essential drugs: the share of domestic drugs in it must be increased to 90%. For the last two years, we have been on schedule, and as of December 31, 2017, we achieved 84.6%, and this year, of course, we will get all 90%.
Another important task is to increase labor productivity and create new highly productive jobs. The military-industrial complex (DIC) has received particular emphasis, and productivity in the DIC is already growing at double-digit rates.
The law on industrial policy adopted in 2014 contains such an instrument as a special investment contract, and in the same year the Industrial Development Fund (IDF) was created, which, among other things, is entrusted with the conclusion of contracts. Now it is clear that an effective scheme has been obtained. The implementation of the already signed federal special investment contracts will provide more than 5,000 highly productive jobs, the total investment in industry will amount to at least 274 billion rubles. Under projects supported by the IDF, it is planned to attract more than 117 billion rubles to the real sector of the economy and create more than 18,000 jobs.
By the way, there is good news. We have established more favorable terms for loans from the IDF for those enterprises that are ready to create new production facilities, make direct investments in the real sector of the economy: if the fund’s supervisory board approves, then in March these companies will receive an optional opportunity to receive a loan not at 5%, but at 3% per annum for the first three years under the basic program "development projects" and the program "machine tool building".
– Optional?
– Yes, lowering the rate is an option, not a mandatory condition. Companies that provide another type of collateral will, as before, receive a loan at 5% per annum.
The only condition for preferential rate cuts will be bank guarantee to the borrower - for the entire term and amount of the loan, this is a more reliable and convenient security mechanism for us than a pledge of land, real estate, equipment or shares. And this innovation, I am sure, will improve the quality loan portfolio fund.
– When to wait for the approval of a new long term strategy development of the automotive industry and a new investment regime for the automotive industry that will replace industrial assembly agreements? You are preparing it together with the Ministry of Economic Development, and each ministry has its own vision. For example, you consider it optimal to use the mechanism of special investment contracts.
- We have no fundamental disagreements with the Ministry of Economic Development. Everyone is tuned for maximum results. The main thing is to develop competencies in the production of key components and materials. Automakers have not long to wait - we will try to complete all the work on the strategy before the end of spring. There are automakers who did not wait and have already concluded special investment contracts with us, such as the Mazda Sollers JV (producing engines and updating the model range of an existing car plant in the Far East. - Vedomosti), Daimler (construction of a car plant in the Moscow region. - "Vedomosti"). We have applications from other companies - we must consider them, regardless of the timing of the approval of the new regime in the automotive industry.
- Hyundai and BMW wanted to sign contracts. Hyundai has been in St. Petersburg for a long time, Daimler is already building a plant, but when can we expect BMW in Russia with full-cycle production?
– Investment project for the production of BMW cars will be implemented under a special investment contract, the parameters of which are now being coordinated by the Ministry of Industry and Trade with the government of the Kaliningrad region. The German automaker chose the Kaliningrad region as a site.
- What kind of state support will new environmentally friendly types of equipment receive?
– We traditionally divide support into two components. The first is development tools: R&D subsidies, subsidies for loans that are attracted from banks, as well as soft loans from FRP. The second is demand support. It depends on the specific industry. In the automotive industry, these are targeted programs that were launched last year and have shown their effectiveness: “First Car”, “Family Car”, and a leasing program. Also this year, we will have two measures to support sustainable transport. This is subsidizing part of the discounts for electric transport - electric buses, trolleybuses, trams. Another measure is subsidizing discounts on gas-powered vehicles. And if in previous years it was only compressed gas, starting this year, on behalf of the President, we are adding liquefied gas.
Today we proceed from the fact that it is necessary not only to fill the domestic market with our cars, but also to actively move to foreign markets. I'm not sure that car production growth will exceed 10% this year, but we should aim for double digits.
– When will you show to the general public the vehicles of the project “Unified Modular Platform” (“Cortege”) – limousine, sedan, minivan, SUV? Will you have time to prepare a limousine for the inauguration of the President of Russia?
- And you, in fact, answered the question - this will happen by the inauguration of the president. We have already begun the transfer of pre-agreed vehicle kits. At the end of December, one set of cars was handed over, after the New Year holidays, a number of improvements were made. Until March, we will have to ensure the delivery of all kits to complete trial operation. These are several limousines, sedans and minivans.
- The President will receive a limousine in the spring, and when will the government transfer to the cars of the Cortege project?
– I think that this can happen at the end of this year - the beginning of next. By this time, everyone will be able to order cars of the Cortege project.
– Will you personally take a limousine, minivan or sedan?
- Personally, I'll wait for the appearance of an SUV. We have until the end of next year to release and add this car to the lineup. Most likely, I, like other members of the government, will have a sedan. True, I doubt that this year it will be possible to transfer to it. The process of ordering and manufacturing is long - this year will be spent on trial operation, including additional certification of machines. By the end of 2018, we have to produce and deliver 70 machines.
– Now Cortege cars are produced in small batches at the facilities of the NAMI Institute. Who will establish a full-fledged, serial production to bring them to the market?
- Have you been to the factory?
Not yet, you can't take pictures there.
– Yes, indeed, we ask you not to do this. After May you can take pictures. It will be important and interesting for you to see what we were able to achieve for such short term(the project started in 2012 - Vedomosti). If we had started the project 10 years ago, I'm not sure that we would have been able to cope with the same quality and efficiency. The automotive industry has changed a lot in recent years. I will not go back to the Soviet period, to talk about what we produced then and for what we were criticized, but today we produce completely different cars, of a different quality and on other platforms.
- So our auto industry is no longer a cursed place?
– Yes, I remember this joke (smiles). No, not cursed.
– In recent years, stocks have become the norm for the buyer, which forces retailers and manufacturers to completely restructure their work. The targeted support program should be launched as early as 2018, but has not yet been launched.
- In the case of the launch of a targeted program to support consumer demand, known in the media as "consumer certificates", the state from 1 rub. investments would receive up to 1.8 rubles. GDP gains. Another question is how to set up the process and find sources of funding. I really hope that this year we in the government will solve this problem to the end.
Another already approved type of business support will be provided through the Roskachestvo system. Its essence is that if a domestic manufacturer demonstrates product quality above GOST standards, then its promotion in retail will be supported by co-financing for marketing activities. RUB 100 million were allocated for these purposes in 2018.
– The Ministry of Industry and Trade prepared a project for easing the antimonopoly regulation of retail six months ago, proposing in some cases to exceed 25% of the market share within the boundaries of cities and regions. At what stage is the work on the project? Under what conditions can the ministry allow the 25% threshold to be exceeded?
– In the document we have prepared, it is about when to count this share: when the company declares the start of the construction of the store or at the time of its launch. Of course, it is fair and right to do this at the time of the declaration to the local authorities of the desire to build a store. After all, to the opening outlet one of the competitors can close their supermarket and automatically the share of the first investor will increase. And an organization that started investing when its share was less than 25% will not be able to open a store. This slows down investment in the construction of new facilities and makes them unpredictable. At the same time, let's not forget that in terms of the number of retail space per capita, Russia is at least 2 times behind the developed countries and we must encourage investment in construction commercial real estate all formats, including retail chains.
- When will the project be completed?
- I will not take responsibility for naming specific dates for all colleagues. But I do not think that here we will meet with opposition - this is a reasonable and sound proposal, and I hope that we will be supported.
Isn't it advisable to increase the threshold? For example, for large players in Europe, it can exceed 30%.
– At this stage, it is more correct to solve the first problem, and then life will show. We cannot constantly improve the legislation - this is also harmful, as it makes long-term business planning impossible. We are in favor of easy adjustments and changes.
- Now the ministry is working on a draft strategy until 2025, which will separately spell out the development of online commerce, the issue is ripe. What measures of regulation of this channel are currently absent, but necessary? And, on the contrary, which ones are already operating, but are redundant?
- Online trading and traditional trading are identical things in the sense that in both cases there is a product. Another issue is that if we are talking about e-commerce and its procedures, then we touch on certain categories of goods that require regulation and special approaches. Here it is necessary to propose such legislative initiatives that will develop this direction. For example, we need the legalization of the online sale of alcohol - with reasonable restrictions, of course. This, in turn, will spur the development of online food commerce - now its share in the total volume of online commerce is negligible - less than 1% - and in developed countries it is 10–15%. What is the relationship? It’s very simple: the presence of alcohol in the order will significantly reduce the cost of delivery, because ordinary products are heavy and low-margin goods.
At the same time, it is necessary to legalize the sale of medicines and jewelry on the Internet. Yes, and with regard to food products, it is necessary to seriously simplify sanitary standards so that different groups of goods can be delivered in one order, in one container, for example, in a bag. This is logical and corresponds to world experience.
However, in general, online trading is not much different from traditional trading. Both here and there, serious deregulation and removal of administrative barriers are required. To a large extent, the new trade development strategy will be devoted to this.
- some associations Russian companies complain about unequal conditions compared to foreign sites operating in Russia: the former pay VAT, while their competitors do not. What measures would be optimal so as not to frighten off foreign partners, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, to make Russian business feel comfortable too?
– We are primarily interested in supporting domestic retail, including those operating on the Internet. The mentioned VAT conflict is about foreign online platforms trading cross-border, the most difficult issue that will not be so easy to solve.
We need mechanisms that will ensure the competitiveness of Russian companies in relation to Western manufacturers that have been operating on the Russian market for a long time. We have already discussed transportation and logistics issues with the business, and there will be results soon.
- The Ministry of Industry and Trade is consistently implementing the idea of introducing labeling: first there were fur coats, then medicines were added, and shoes and cigarettes are next in line. Although the main problem of counterfeit goods in the tobacco market is different excise policies in the countries that are members of the Customs Union.
- Regulation of the market needs to start somewhere. The idea of labeling to combat counterfeiting and smuggling came from the manufacturers and importers of tobacco products themselves. It has already been decided that it will be a DataMatrix. Let's see how the pilot will go and what he will give at the exit. Not the fact that this is the best solution. Because if we are talking about marking through an RFID tag, then it costs 3.5 rubles, but it allows our domestic microelectronics to develop. This is a common world practice: if you want to develop microelectronics, use its products to the maximum by forming a target order.
- The main thing is that tobacco does not rise in price by 3 times.
- I think the Ministry of Health is only a joy.
But smokers will be bad.
– They need to switch to electronic methods of nicotine delivery, electronic systems heating tobacco (smiles).
– How does the Ministry of Industry and Trade plan to regulate the market of electronic cigarettes and devices for heating tobacco?
– We came up with the initiative to separate these devices into a separate category, because they are fundamentally different from traditional cigarettes and tobacco. In electronic devices, there is no combustion or smoldering of tobacco, therefore, combustion products, in particular resins, do not enter the body. And the products of combustion are the most harmful, I would even say the deadly component in traditional smoking. Electronic devices are safer: many experts, including Western ones, even give a figure: electronic means of nicotine delivery are 95% less harmful than regular cigarettes. One can argue with the figure itself, but the fact that the harm is much less, as they say, is obvious. Therefore, it is categorically wrong to regulate the circulation of traditional tobacco products and electronic means in the same way. We propose to fix the most obvious restrictions with a special law on the circulation of these devices: for example, prohibit sales to minors, smoking in schools, kindergartens, and other similar places, as well as establish administrative liability for violation of these restrictions. We also believe that these products should be labeled, but at the same time, the excise rate should be lower compared to traditional tobacco products – by the way, this is the case now.
- How much less?
- This is a question for the Ministry of Finance. But I emphasize again: these products are much less harmful for the consumer. Therefore, excise policy should encourage smokers to switch from traditional tobacco products to these devices, and not vice versa.
– The Ministry of Industry and Trade actively promoted the organization of production in Russia by foreign manufacturers and sellers of clothing and other textiles. In 2017, Deputy Minister Vladimir Evtukhov announced the signing of a contract with the Spanish Inditex for the production of Zara clothing in Russia. Has the contract been signed in the end? If so, with which company and for the production of which goods? How much was the output last year?
- Together with Zara, we have compiled a roadmap for localizing production in Russia. Its representatives have already met with 16 knitting enterprises, with several leather and footwear enterprises, factories producing bags and accessories. Based on the results of the tests, 17 factories were selected. In November 2017, the first batch of Russian products went to Spain for further sale in the Inditex chain of stores around the world. Knitwear, clothing, leather and footwear products Russian production will be sent to Inditex headquarters in the first quarter of 2018.
– What is the Ministry of Industry and Trade doing to convince foreign partners to localize production? Is there anyone besides Inditex who is ready to cooperate?
– Despite the fact that some retailers are already actively cooperating with Russian enterprises, companies also have plans to further expand cooperation with Russian enterprises. For example, Decathlon currently has a localization rate of 20% and plans to increase it to 45% over the next two years. Finn Flare produces 91% of knitwear and 9% of garments in Russia, Sportmaster produces about 40% of sports equipment and 13% of clothing. The management of Uniqlo is also interested in cooperation with Russian enterprises; the company aims to promote locally produced clothing items.
We know from retail representatives that the main problem with placing orders in the Russian light industry is the lack of information about enterprises ready to take orders and their capacities. To expand this situation, the Ministry of Industry and Trade requested from the executive authorities of the subjects of the Russian Federation data on enterprises and their production capabilities: approximately 140 enterprises from more than 70 subjects expressed their readiness to cooperate with brands and retailers.
In addition, in order to promote the products of the domestic light industry, to bring trade and industry closer together, trade and purchasing sessions are organized at the largest exhibitions-fairs together with associations, meetings are held with large retail chains. In general, we consider fairs and trade festivals as a good, efficient channel for Russian producers to establish sales. it unique opportunity to demonstrate to both our citizens and buyers, industry professionals, the possibilities Russian enterprises, the potential of young talented designers.
At the same time, we are not going to convince anyone of the need for localization - this is a logical conclusion that brands come to for reasons of economic benefits, logistical advantages and consumer preferences. But we have all the possibilities for this: highly qualified personnel, advanced technologies and measures state support allow to implement projects to expand production in a short time.
– Pharmacy sales of medicines in packages increased by 3.5% last year, but largely due to the high season of influenza and SARS in late 2016 and early 2017. In money terms, the market is growing mainly due to higher prices and the transition of buyers to more expensive drugs . What support measures do you consider the most effective so that people do not save on health?
– Since 2010, we have managed not only to reverse the trend towards the loss of Russian pharmaceutical and medical products on the market, but also to create a reserve for the development of an innovative pharmaceutical industry. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has formed a whole range of support measures - financial and non-financial.
Financial - these are, in particular, subsidies for reimbursement of part of the costs of clinical and preclinical research projects and for the organization of the production of medicines. For example, three projects for the treatment of influenza were financed in this way in the amount of about 140 million rubles. Many projects receive concessional funding through the IDF.
The state also makes sure that medicines from the list of vital and essential drugs are available not only physically, but also at a cost, therefore it regulates prices for them.
Yes, it regulates. And manufacturers of cheap medicines, meanwhile, complain about the inability to work without state support. And they argue that the new obligation to label drugs can bring them to bankruptcy, since they have not yet paid off loans for the transition to the GMP standard. It is impossible to refuse such drugs, because it can provoke social tension. How will you respond to this problem?
– Amendments to the Law “On the Circulation of Medicines”, which prohibit the production and introduction into civil circulation of medicines without labeling, have just come into force - on February 1. But the law also provides for a fairly comfortable transitional period so that not only manufacturers, but also wholesalers and retailers can join the unified information system(IS) labeling of medicines: until January 1, 2020. Each manufacturer has its own schedule for the implementation of the IS "Marking" and additional support mechanisms, to which 1.5 billion rubles have been allocated. in 2018. It is assumed that the IDF will allocate borrowed funds at a preferential rate (up to 1% per annum) for two years.
– Can Russia become, if not an advanced pharmaceutical power, then at least a second India?
– We are faced with the task of making the Russian pharmaceutical industry the best in the world. Look: we have built more than 30 new pharmaceutical plants over the past 10 years. Production increased threefold - to more than 300 billion rubles. from 96 billion rubles. in 2009. Every second tablet is domestically produced, and in terms of money, the share of domestic drugs on the market and in government purchases exceeds 30%. For comparison: in 2012 it was 24%.
There is also rapid progress in the field of advanced developments: in Russia, high-tech drugs developed on the basis of the latest solutions in the field of biotechnology have appeared - drugs of recombinant blood coagulation factors for the treatment of hemophilia, cytokines and monoclonal antibodies used in the treatment of oncology and rheumatoid arthritis, recombinant insulins, etc. Completely new molecules are also entering the market - elpida, used in HIV therapy, narlaprevir - for tuberculosis, gozogliptin - for diabetes mellitus. A number of drugs are currently undergoing registration procedures in more than 60 countries around the world. It is important that all new drugs are produced in Russia on a full cycle - starting with the production of the substance.
At the same time, the progressive approaches that are currently developing in the field of personalized medicine, theranostics and regenerative medicine, as well as technologies at the intersection of sciences, require us to make adjustments to the development strategy of the pharmaceutical and medical industries, which will be done this year. Russia is already in a good position in the global pharmaceutical industry and, I think, by 2020 it should be at the forefront.
MOSCOW, press release of the Ministry of Industry and Trade
12
We will present you significant fragments of this large interview - namely, answers to the direct and most daring questions of the newspaper.
ANTI-CRISIS ECONOMY
The main challenge today is to invite investors and start a new business. And we have a breakthrough, I would dare to say so, in agriculture. The market is huge, the demand allows investors to create an interesting business model and make a profit. Investors came to us from Stavropol, from Tyumen, from Moscow, from Armenia. Investments - about 35 billion rubles. Due to the fact that the state policy makes it possible to compensate not only the rate, which is very heavy, but also to return capital costs - up to 25%. That is, the model, as businessmen say, is simply magnificent. The production of cucumbers, tomatoes, sweet peppers, strawberries and flowers is increasing. The price of land is not an obstacle to starting an agricultural business. We find legal mechanisms to provide land to strategic investors at a nominal price. Another issue is the implementation of the construction project itself, for example, a greenhouse. Production requires gas, electricity, water. Plus, we have created 28 industrial parks.
Tax number 1, as well as for the vast majority, is personal income tax. Of course, we would like profit tax to be the leader, this is our dream. We sell regional real estate in Moscow. We are the only entity whose ministries are still scattered in the neighboring entity. In 2017–2018 We will move all services and ministries to Krasnogorsk.
Some time ago there was an idea to seek payment income tax at the place of residence. Is it all forgotten now? No chance? - If in black and white logic to answer - with a chance or no chance, then rather without. Administration of personal income tax in the country is one of the most effective. Creating jobs is a stronger position. We have managed to create 70,000 high-performance jobs for two consecutive years. What does high performance mean? This means a salary of 40,000 or 50,000 rubles.
Of course, I would like 1.2 million people to pay personal income tax in the region, but it is wrong and impossible to change the administration of the entire country because of one subject. Still, a stronger position is to create jobs where people live. After all, it’s not only unpleasant that money is leaving the region, it’s about 100 billion rubles. It is also a daily tiring one and a half or two hour journey for a person in only one direction. I recently spoke to an ophthalmologist who prescribed glasses for me. She is for 80,000 rubles. travels daily from Mytishchi to Moscow. And in Mytishchi this position is paid at the level of 60,000 rubles. And I say: “Why are you for 20,000 rubles. do you go to Moscow every day?” And she replies: “You know, if there were 70,000 rubles, I would love to stay, but I have a mortgage, and I have to - I have been traveling for seven years. I spend two hours going there, two hours going back.” Or we go to the MFC, there is a very pleasant couple. It turned out that from Elektrougli, the husband is an electrician, works in Moscow, receives 100,000–120,000 rubles. per month. Every morning he travels by train from Elektrougli and back. That is, it really plows every day. He is a professional, the company cannot refuse him, but he is forced to travel. And if he could create a workplace somewhere nearby? That's what I'm worried about. And if we can solve this problem, people will say thank you. I don’t know about everyone, but the wife of this electrical engineer for sure.
PARKING
- Will you introduce paid parking?
If people support it, we will. We discuss this with the residents. It looks like it's needed. And we are starting to slowly prepare for this. In Odintsovo, for example, the number of registered cars is about the same as in the south of France. I have never seen so many cars on the lawns and sidewalks as in Lyubertsy. Residents are very annoyed when it is impossible to park a car or pass with a stroller.
- How do you see it - will you introduce paid parking at the same time in the five largest municipalities?
- Where there is a high density, paid parking will gradually appear. As it was in Moscow. As, however, in all major cities of the world without exception. No other way was found.
I am deeply convinced that rotation in the authorities - municipal, regional - is mandatory so that a person does not lose motivation. We have the practice of transferring successful colleagues from one municipality to another, replacing functions and competencies. It is obvious that a long stay in one place, so to speak, dulls the receptors. And the government has no right to lose this nerve. We have heads of districts who have been working for a very long time - since the 90s, very serious, very effective. We make rotations when we see the need. For a person who has worked conscientiously for 10 or 20 years, we will always find a direction for work.
– Defined 56 indicators. They characterize our priorities - the implementation of the May decrees, targets of federal and government programs Moscow region.
It is precisely those areas that are directly involved in the heads of municipalities in places. These are targets: the elimination of the second shift, the number of repaired municipal and regional roads. Have you updated 10% of the yards or not? What is to upgrade 10% of yards? It would seem an abstract definition. But in fact, these are six mandatory elements: parking, a green area, a playground, lighting, paths, a container site. There is an exhaustive list of activities that you must carry out in the yards. In total, we have 13,400 households in the Moscow region. I don’t want to overly immerse you in the management system that we are dealing with. Its essence is work for the result. And we have a number of principles - there are seven of them (1. The citizen is always right! 2. The team is everything. 3. The result "rules"! 4. Nothing personal! 5. Sensitive power! 6. Change for the better! 7. "Democracy! ”), there should be nothing personal here.
MORATORIUM ON CONSTRUCTION
A number of municipalities in the Moscow region, which border on Moscow, are overpopulated. The same Balashikha. When all this began to be built - even before you - urbanists warned that future slums were being built in the Moscow region. The lower middle class lives there. If the economy collapses, people are out of work, and we get hundreds of thousands of unemployed, etc.
- You have chosen the city very accurately. Godlessly, I'm not afraid of this word, Balashikha is built up. But the point is not even that a crazy stone jungle appeared there, but that during this time there were no significant jobs created there. And now every morning with a running start you have to try to run into the train. And there are about 120,000 people who travel from Balashikha every day. That is, 30% of the able-bodied population rushes to Moscow from 7 to 9 in the morning. And back in the evening. How to embroider? To begin with, we declared a moratorium on new construction. Canceled what could be canceled and stopped. There are already permits issued that we cannot revoke.
MASTER PLAN AND POINT CONSTRUCTION
Do you have an understanding in which direction the appearance of the Moscow region will change after the adoption of the general plans?
– Today it is almost impossible to seal, dotted construction. To approve infill development, you will have to go through a public hearing. And what will people say when they want to build a residential building in Balashikha instead of a stadium? Therefore, the master plan for us is the rule. It seems that life without rules is sometimes easier, but then difficulties appear. Now we have only 18% of master plans.
Here we say: we are leaders in construction. But can you imagine that only 18% of municipalities in the Moscow region have master plans? And then - who financed the development of these master plans? Land owners! And what can the owner of the land envisage in the regional plan?
We paid 1 billion rubles. last year, by the end of the year we will have 98% of master plans. After many public hearings. Another very important thing: when we started coordinating the general plans, we saw that there was often an overlap residential buildings on forest fund lands. This story is typical not only for the region, but also for the whole country - this has been the case since the 80s and 90s. We are currently working with the federal government to address these issues.
You spoke about the ratings of heads of municipalities. There is also a rating for governors. And not only the rating that the internal policy department makes, in terms of popularity. But there is also the rating of the government. Do you know where you are there?
- I know. And about the rating on the development of the investment climate in the regions. And about the rating for evaluating the effectiveness of government bodies. These are indicated ratings. And, returning to the issues of a favorable climate for investors, according to the rating of investment attractiveness in 2013, the region ranked 38th, and by the end of 2014 - already 24th. Priority and main indicators in the rating of the effectiveness of government bodies. In 2011, the region was in 32nd place. In 2014, they entered the top 15 regions of Russia and became 13th. Why 13? We lose on the dynamics of indicators. It is clear: the more developed the region, the more modest the growth rates, because the development of the economy has objective limits. But such is the federal method of evaluation.
PRO SAMOPIR
A year ago, the ONF accused the Moscow region of inflated spending on PR, including your own. ONF activists said that more than 5 billion rubles are spent on PR from the budget.
We have officially stated that this is not the case. Colleagues did not understand. And out of these 5.9 billion rubles. a significant share is the financing of magistrates - 1.7 billion rubles. It's hard to call it PR. As for the media as such, we really have a large share of the cost of creating the 360 TV channel. For us, building such a channel is a very important undertaking, because the Moscow Region, like no other region of the Federation, is fragmented both in geographical location and in its strong municipalities. It is no coincidence that it was often called both a patchwork quilt and a specific principality - this should not be. Figuratively speaking, Odintsovo and Mytishchi, Taldom and Balashikha are different ways. And our task was to create a single information space. And just informational activity is those capillaries, those vessels that allow us to deliver information, to tell what we are doing.
ABOUT ELECTIONS
– Now the Kremlin is issuing a public statement that the main thing in these elections is not even the number of votes received by United Russia, but competitiveness, openness and legitimacy. In the last elections, our regions refused to use video surveillance, referring to the cost.
- I know that. We have everything you need to provide video surveillance. It's better to have it than the other way around. This avoids provocations. We had incidents in Balashikha and in the Shchelkovsky district.
We also drew certain conclusions. And we have no right to succumb to these provocations. Therefore, we are now inviting active social activists, for example, we had elections in Volokolamsk, in the Kolomensky district. They are present at the polling stations as public figures, write to social networks, take pictures and film videos. Obviously, there must be admission of observers from political parties. We will implement all these principles in our country. The Moscow region is a very convenient region, you don’t have to travel far. I think that our polling stations will traditionally be in demand by observers.
– Irek Vildanov, a representative of the Moscow Regional Electoral Committee, became famous for statements almost in the spirit of Ramzan Kadyrov: he called specific observers provocateurs, almost compared them with fascists, etc. Do you agree with this interpretation and the activities of these independent monitoring organizations?
Maybe you should change your occupation then?
He is healthy now, thank God. And there are no complaints about his work from colleagues from the Central Election Commission and the regional Duma. You need to be more restrained, which we recommended to him.
Demyan Kudryavtsev, a graduate of the Faculty of Journalism of the Leningrad State University, made his first media projects in Israel (repatriated in 1990). As a co-founder of CityLine (one of the first Internet providers), he came to Russia in 1996 and started developing content projects in RuNet. After 10 years, Kudryavtsev headed the Kommersant publishing house (according to Meduza, he led the sale of the publishing house to Alisher Usmanov) and left it in the summer of 2012. Two and a half years ago, Kudryavtsev bought the Vedomosti newspaper and part of the assets of the Sanoma Independent Media publishing house (including The Moscow Times and National Geographic, Men's Health and Women's Health magazines). Last year, with the information support of his magazines, Kudryavtsev launched the travel agency Let's Go! and Ostrov, a clothing store for active travelers. In an interview Inc. he told why the goal of entrepreneurship is not always money, how he helped the country's main business newspaper survive, and how the client's fear and hope help sell him jackets.
The owner is the main driving force of development Russian business. The founding shareholders of the media bear the maximum responsibility for the existence of the publication either by financing or by intellectually investing in its development. Therefore, they cannot simply give money or, conversely, receive income while lying on the couch. Not a single Russian business - from metallurgical plants to the regional newspaper - works like this today, and there is no need for hypocrisy that the removal of owners (from the work of the media - Inc.) is needed or possible today.
Russian business management is much less systemic, much more personalized than in the West; Media in this sense differs little from other businesses. The risks are sometimes different, the challenges are different, the policies are bigger, but these are all just challenges.
million rubles- revenue of the publisher* of the Vedomosti newspaper in 2016.
billion rubles- the total revenue of publications bought by Kudryavtsev in 2016.
million- the cost of the Vedomosti newspaper, taking into account the debt.
million rubles- revenue of Yasno Communication Agency in 2015.
million rubles- forecasted sales of clothing store Ostrov in 2017.
*F The financial results of LLC Business News Media include the results of the Vedomosti newspaper and Vedomosti conferences.
Sources: SPARK-Interfax, media, company data
I don't consider myself a real businessman. Money, success, I'm not motivated enough. The main application of my activity is myself and my relatives, and the main project is life itself. I make it interesting and therefore sometimes I take excessive risks that are not justified in business, I value defeats no less than victories. It is very convenient that I evaluate the result myself.
Entrepreneurship for me is a way to live, one of the ways to change the space and have fun. Sometimes you get it from small things that objectively are not achievements - they are not measured by the size of the company, by money. At The Moscow Times, we had great covers, I am proud to have created a team, and we reformed the publication with them in such a way that these covers took place. And then the covers ran out, and that doesn't bring me grief. So the result is positive.
Life without compromise is impossible, all the more impossible entrepreneurial activity especially in Russia. You have to understand what the compromise is for. For the sake of momentary comfort, it is better not to compromise. And in the name of a great goal - most likely, you are mistaken: a great goal is not built on dirty compromises. And everything in the middle must be evaluated every time. There is no “always”, there is a special case in which you evaluate the risks, evaluate your comfort and discomfort from certain actions - and the loss of those around you.
United Company "Rambler-Poster" Yury Saprykin. Journalist Mikhail Fishman became the new editor-in-chief of the publication. Kudryavtsev and the new team restarted the newspaper - in particular, the former daily edition became a weekly edition, with artistic covers.
In early June 2017, media manager Derk Sauer (founded the newspaper in 1992) returned to The Moscow Times as a co-founder non-profit organization in Europe, which will receive licenses to publish the newspaper in Europe, the CIS and China (the Chinese version has been published since May 2017). Sauer, who took over the management of the publication, first of all closed the printed version of the newspaper - the last printed issue appeared in early July. At the same time, editor-in-chief Mikhail Fishman and most of the former editorial staff left The Moscow Times.
The opinion of others is not so important, but suffering, loss are very important. If in your compromise you risk only your ideas, it is easier to accept it, but if other people suffer from this or something in their life changes for the worse, think three times.
Kudryavtsev filed a letter of resignation from the post of general director of the Kommersant publishing house in December 2011 after the dismissal of the editor-in-chief of Kommersant Maxim Kovalsky, the reason for which was the publication of a ballot with an obscene inscription inside the issue, and not on the cover.
I wouldn't publish the famous cover with a spoiled ballot, and I wouldn't even consider it a compromise. It would have been better for the publishing house, there would have been no break in it, which had been outlived for a long time, many wonderful people would still work there.
The social responsibility of business is to ensure that our children in this territory live better than we do. Sometimes I hear from major Russian businessmen: "Well, what am I going to change here if 40% of the population does not want this." But they are not equal to others. Their talent, opportunities, resources, capital - this is the potential of the entire nation, today condensed in these companies, people. They are responsible for what will happen here, no less than 40 or even 86 percent of the population.
The Vedomosti newspaper was supposed to close 2 years ago due to the departure of Sanoma and amendments to the law "On Mass Media" on the maximum share of foreign ownership. And it lasted for more than two years longer, without changing its values and mission. Even if it closes tomorrow and goes bankrupt - these were two and a half years.
The biggest problem today for Russian media, especially socio-political ones, is that there is no capital market for them. The valuation of the company and the possibility of raising money have been destroyed by the general crisis, the expulsion of foreigners, and the fear of Russian business of a toxic media market due to political risks.
This situation has very serious consequences: the best leave journalism, there is no one to replace them. New ones are not born, and there is no money to buy specialists, for example, in the West. Vicious circle.
Reforming the media in an era of technological crisis requires capital, the ability to attract it, in order to technologically re-equip the entire industry. State media are beyond competition financially and organizationally.
I'm not a publisher in the truest sense. I manage the Vedomosti newspaper only at the corporate level. I can see the problem and start solving it, or I can say to management: “I think this is the problem, let's all rush to solve it.” I can choose what I do and where I am most useful. While I might be more helpful on an operational level, I keep that distance because principles are as important as efficiency right now.
The two-and-a-half years that I have been doing this, we are going with a constant decrease in loss, although slower than I planned. We hope that by the end of 2018, the company will collectively be in profit not only on paper, but also according to all reporting standards. But whether I will sacrifice profits for the sake of investment in development or for the sake of preserving something necessary, I cannot say now. Much is decided not by me, but by the board of directors together with the management.
Biography of Demyan Kudryavtsev
A native of Leningrad, Kudryavtsev graduated from the Faculty of Journalism of the Leningrad University. In 1996 he became one of the partners of the Russian
Internet provider CityLine, where he was responsible for the marketing and development of the first media projects in Runet - the site "Anecdot.ru" and Anton Nosik's blog "Evening Internet". In 2001, CityLine was bought by its main competitor, Golden Telecom, for $29 million.
According to Meduza, by 1999 Kudryavtsev became close to the oligarch Boris Berezovsky and actually controlled his media assets - the ORT television channel and the Kommersant publishing house, and from 2006 to 2012 headed the Kommersant publishing house.
In 2014, Kudryavtsev founded the Yasno Communication Agency. And since 2015, the Kudryavtsev family has owned several publications, including the Vedomosti and The Moscow Times newspapers, Men’s Health, Women’s Health, National Geographic and others magazines (formerly part of the Sanoma Independent Media publishing house). Kudryavtsev, according to him, initially planned to buy only a third of the ID, owned by the Finnish Sanoma. But in connection with the law on the media, which limited foreign ownership, American Pearson (formerly the Financial Times) and Dow Jones (the Wall Street Journal) sold their shares - each owned 33.3% of the publishing company Vedomosti. According to Vedomosti sources, the newspaper was valued at more than 10 million euros, taking into account the debt.
In real work, I often have conflicts. I am not a very good leader for subordinates - not polite enough, not attentive enough. I fine, fire, raise my voice. Vedomosti does not know me from this side, practically.
If I were an operations manager, I would carry out reforms in Vedomosti much more decisively and tougher. Many good people and professionals would probably be out of work - through no fault of their own, the market is changing. But when what is essentially the last independent business publication to be reformed, one cannot be guided only by straightforward efficiency. It's like in culture and education: sometimes your compromise is to lose more, but defend the value frontier longer.
We do not deal with copyright media. A person who works for us should value the work more than himself. Even in Kommersant, where almost every surname is a brand in itself, everyone should understand that the publication is bigger and more important than them, and for a journalist, the only way to succeed is to work for common success.
About citizenship
It’s not like someone came to me and said: “Write this, but don’t write this, otherwise you will feel bad, for example.” It doesn't work that way, the connection is indirect.
At least, before I owned Vedomosti, I was not deprived of anything. On the other hand, maybe they would have deprived me, I just don't know. If you think about it, then, like a centipede, you immediately forget which foot to walk on. We do what we think is right. And since we do not live in an airless space, we understand that there are consequences and risks.
Formally, the absence of citizenship does not threaten our publishing business. I am not doing anything right now to try to get citizenship again or return the canceled one.
In an era of change, the editor-in-chief must be terribly able-bodied. An editor, even the most talented, but lazy, resting on his laurels or tired, cannot be hired today. We're not in the commercial position to afford it.
The criteria for the effectiveness of an editor or boss are very simple - in the allotted time, something must become more successful than it was. Influence, citation, profitability of the publication, relationships within, and so on.
The Mass Media Law does not work today and is confusing.(founder and CEO TV channel "Rain" - Inc.) has the right to interfere in the content policy of the Dozhd TV channel, because she is the general producer. But she, as the owner, took and appointed herself the general producer - and the story about the law ended immediately. There are many such examples - Konstantin Remchukov, owner and editor-in-chief of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, owner and editor-in-chief of Moskovsky Komsomolets Pavel Gusev, owner and publisher of Meduza Galina Timchenko, although they are in a different jurisdiction (Medusa is registered in Latvia - Inc.), and others.
Today, the media is not only the editorial office, but also a technological product, and the publisher is a professional who understands something better than the editorial office, and should be able to influence the situation. The law, written 25 years ago, hinders him if he does not ignore it. It is impossible to separate editorial processes from production today by a formal bureaucratic act. Only internal agreement and self-restraint, only public transparency.
It seems to me that I have a happy business fate. I loved my bosses, partners, shareholders, subordinates and did not demand special reciprocity from them. I sometimes feel sorry that because of the mistakes of these people or my own, something big did not take place or did not take place as it should, but usually I do not think about it.
I am proud of CityLine (an Internet provider that Kudryavtsev created together with gallery owner Emelyan Zakharov and four other partners in 1996 - Inc.) as a technological breakthrough project for Russia. The company was the market leader because we just lived at work and spent our money. This helps a lot in efficiency. But it was also a very important story about the creation of a team, with which we then did a lot of things.
Creating a travel club "Let's go!" and the tourist clothing store Ostrov, we followed the demand. We realized that National Geographic and Men's Health magazines have an active male audience that travels a lot - accordingly, she needs both tours and equipment for them. This is how the history of the club was born.
In a small business, such as clothing retail, political risks are directly visible only through fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. But it is harder for other reasons: because of the crisis in general and because it started late. The most serious players in this business were created back in the 1990s. You need to build long-term relationships with clothing brands.
Travelers' club and Kudryavtsev's clothing store
In 2016, Kudryavtsev launched the Let's Go! travel club. and clothing store for travel and active
Ostrov lifestyle (the head of Kudryavtsev's Yasno Communication Agency, Alexander Karpov, became the director general of the latter). This business was created "with the information support" of Men's Health, National Geographic and Vedomosti, the media manager himself notes.
According to the website of the club "Let's go!", blogger and traveler Sergey Dolya became the co-author of the trips. Financial results projects are not disclosed separately. According to Kudryavtsev, this business is highly profitable, but so far "very small." "Go!" sells approximately 12 expedition spots per month.
Ostrov clothing store was originally conceived as an online store "for travelers and active citizens", at the end of 2016 in mall Aviapark opened an offline corner. According to Kudryavtsev, Ostrov is a "bigger" business than "Let's go!". At the end of 2017, sales of the store should amount to 30 million rubles, while the plan is being implemented, the entrepreneur notes.
The audience has two needs - fear and hope. The business makes money on them. When selling news, this is obvious. But the person who buys a jacket also hopes that he will live until next winter, and overcomes the fear that he will freeze. But you don’t have to think about it - the audience will think for you, it’s how it works, the main thing is to make jackets well and sell them.
Business can be done by different organs: you can use your head, you can use your soul, you can use your stomach, you can use your genitals, you can do whatever you like. I behave differently at different times, but in general - it's like a sport, it's hormonal.
The more people in the company who make decisions and imagine the picture and tasks as a whole, the better. You can sit at the level of the owner, general director, chief engineer of the plant, or you can invite the heads of workshops, or the sales director and the head of the transport workshop to meetings. In this sense, media is not much different from other businesses.
For me, a professional choice cannot be a cause of regret or joy. The criterion is an interesting life. You can secure it for yourself, well, plus or minus, with any profession in the 21st century. I really want to go to space. But I don't want to become an astronaut.
Man wants to conquer space, time and the unknown. Fly fast, live long, know more. All technologies aimed at solving these problems can be very promising. But on the other hand, I don't know of technologies designed for something else.
The life that Elon Musk lives is admirable. The point of a normal society is that there are thousands of people like Elon Musk. In fact, thousands of such people make society normal. Among the Russians, I can name Sergey Adoniev (founder and co-owner of the operator Yota - Inc.) and Pavel Durov (creator of VKontakte and Telegram - Inc.). In addition to what they do and how, they are interesting and important to me as a human being.
I have a good head, but limited resources. If I had unlimited resources, I would only buy the edition with very limited brains. I'd rather buy a university. Because a good university can launch any publication and any spaceship.
With the participation of Olga Senatorova
The desire of the authorities to live one day and the inability to plan for the future has become one of the main causes of the crisis, said the Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukaev
Since June, when we interviewed Alexey Ulyukaev, the situation in the economy has changed dramatically under the influence of sectoral sanctions, retaliatory counter-sanctions, lower oil prices, and the fall of the ruble. We started the meeting with an attempt to list everything that had changed rapidly, but the minister interrupted, nodding: “If we meet again in six months, everything will be different again.” We didn't have to wait: in an hour and a half on Monday, while we were interviewing, the ruble exchange rate against the dollar fell by 1.6%, breaking through the mark of 60 rubles/$. By Tuesday night, part of the interview was already outdated. We sent a question with a request to comment on the increase by the Central Bank of the key rate from 10.5 to 17%. But Tuesday also turned out to be “black”: in these two days, the ruble exchange rate jumped between 58.2 and 80.1 rubles against the dollar, between 72.3 and 100.7 rubles against the euro, the exchange rate fluctuations reached almost 40%. Depositors became worried, banks suspended the issuance of loans, and the government gathered in the evening to discuss a joint anti-crisis plan - the day before, we had just asked Ulyukaev why there was no such plan. After all, the crisis did not start this Monday.
- How would you characterize the situation in the economy?
“Crisis is probably the right word. Correct in that it does not have a clear definition: stagnation, recession have it, but crisis does not. Now we have a combination of three crises. The first crisis is structural: the structure of the economy is such that it reproduces costs on an extended scale. It is an economy of ever-increasing costs: be it tariffs natural monopolies, be it the ratio of wages to labor productivity, be it regulatory, transaction costs, be it funding costs in the credit market. All costs are constantly growing, and their growth is a multiple of the growth of the economy. The second crisis is part of the normal business cycle, which is associated with restrictions on demand - both internal and external. And the third is the geopolitical crisis associated with the mechanism of sanctions, counter-sanctions, etc. Their combination at one time in one place produces the negative effects that we are discussing.
- Is it a "perfect storm" or did it happen by chance?
- Probably, we got into a perfect storm - and, probably, this is not accidental. Because in a sense, we ourselves prepared this storm. In terms of the structural crisis, this is the result of an unreformed economy and all that we have not done. They did not reduce macroeconomic costs - and these are the costs of both the pension system and the social sphere, which now means additional obligations under the social insurance fund, health insurance. Our actions this year to abolish the threshold [of salaries on contributions] to the MHIF is actually an additional tax on business, and it is due to the fact that the fund has a deficit, and this is the result of underreformation. The same applies to the tariffs of natural monopolies and, most importantly, regulatory pressure. An EY study shows that 35% of the costs of Russian enterprises are transaction costs, regulation fees. This is what we did with our own hands. It's like Marquez's "Chronicle of Declared Death" - a chronicle of a declared crisis: every time we made some kind of movement, we prepared this crisis. The combination of three crises together is an accident, but the fact that the base was prepared is a regularity.
- And what are the options? And sanctions, and recession or stagnation - for a long time?
- Back in 2009, I said that what is happening in the global economy is a transition to a new normal, that there will no longer be high growth rates - neither global nor Russian either. See how forecasts change: all the time, analysts expect that world economy will grow more vigorously, then quarter after quarter they reduce forecasts, and next year they again expect vigorous growth and again reduce forecasts. The idea of a new normality will not take root in any way, everyone is waiting for some rebounds. There will be no rebounds. The growth rate of the world economy will be significantly lower than it was before. And, accordingly, the growth rate Russian economy also will never be the same - I'm talking about the level where there is no negative gap between potential and actual output. From my point of view, this is an increase of about 2.5-3%. That is, if there were no sanctions, falling oil prices, and if we did not do stupid things, economic growth would be 2.5-3%. This new normal is for a long time, for my generation - forever. I won't see another normality. Maybe you will see.
- But now even 3% looks unrealistic.
- There are other ingredients. The sanctions regime is the next matrix that we are imposing: it looks like this is also for a very long time. I was a poor forecaster when I thought that sanctions would not be introduced or that they would be introduced for a short time. After the US Congress passed the bill (the “Ukraine Freedom Support Act”, which includes additional sanctions against Gazprom and Rosoboronexport. - Vedomosti), it will be like with the Jackson-Vanik amendment: no more Jackson, nor Vanik, and for 40 years the story continued. Once an American law is passed, it is very difficult to change it afterwards - it seems to take decades. The problem may be material, it may be intangible - just a threat, but it will be with us for a very long time.
But the third component - economic policy - it, of course, can be variable, it is a moving variable. The other two are constants.
- Will the sanctions increase the impact on the economy or will it adapt?
- The component associated with financial sanctions, with banks, will weaken. It is very important for us to pass 2014-2015. from the point of view of refinancing corporate debts, further adaptation occurs due to the fact that the weakening of the currency changes the state of the current account. If we overcome all the turmoil, largely associated with our inaccurate actions in the monetary and financial sphere, then then a sufficiently large positive current account balance will allow us to calmly fund the refinancing of our companies, starting in 2016. But by then the problem [will begin to affect] related to the technological component of sanctions: a lot of things related to sanctions on the technology of modern oil and gas exploration, oil and gas production are not in force at all today and next year, probably, too, and starting from 2016 we will have problems. The financial part [of the impact of sanctions] will weaken, and the technological part will increase, and it is difficult for me to say what the balance of these mutually contradictory trends will be, but one way or another it will be tangible.
- It is clear that the best thing is for the sanctions to be lifted, but this is not a question for the Ministry of Economic Development ...
- I agree.
- And there is no textbook on how to develop the economy under sanctions, you have to react ad hoc - spontaneously. Nevertheless, the Ministry of Finance has a sequestration plan, the Central Bank is also trying to plan something. Does the Ministry of Economic Development have an anti-crisis plan regarding the “moving variable”? We are talking about the economy, and you are in charge of the economy.
- You are probably talking about plans in quotation marks - conditional plans. Because sequestering the budget by 10% is not a plan.
- Yes, reaction to what is happening.
- That's the reaction. The position can be reactive or proactive. Any reactive position is doomed to failure, philosophically speaking. How much is the course today?
- 58 rubles / $ was on Friday (the interview was taken on Monday. - Vedomosti).
- (Answer given on Monday) We drove a long time ago. Here the Central Bank is doing different things, they raised the rate by 100 basis points on Thursday. Why do it? To show that the Central Bank still exists? This is a pointless action. We are at the tail end of events.
- On Tuesday night, the Central Bank raised the rate to 17% ...
- (Answer given on Tuesday) [Raising the key rate to 17%] is the right, albeit difficult decision. But it does not live alone. It should be supplemented by measures to overcome the imbalance in the domestic foreign exchange market.
A meaningful action is an action that someone might pay for, but it will make a difference. We have to change the situation on the chessboard, otherwise it's just a downward spiral, repeating and repeating the way the pieces stood before. There are quite a few such plans, they are all reactive plans. We still haven't had a serious plan that would change the device. Although we have a lot of plans related to import substitution, with priority projects - and that’s all useful work, but this is a tactic, a reaction. We need a strategic plan.
- Why isn't he? No understanding of what is happening?
- You correctly said that we react ad hoc: the situation is so difficult to predict that we cannot be prepared for its changes in the future. Here's what we can have in 2015 with external factors? It is very likely that the sanctions will be tightened. It is very likely that the oil market situation will worsen even more. Something else might happen. Here's how to behave - write another stress scenario in addition to [oil price] $60 [per barrel]? Let's do $40, $20, $10.
- Probably, such scripts are written to understand what to do?
- Stress test, first of all, to understand the strength of the structure: we can withstand or not withstand. And secondly, yes, [to understand] what we can do. So once again: I think we would have to play ahead of the curve. For example, in a situation where there are serious budget problems, a reactive position is to reduce the limits of budget commitments, and a proactive one is, for example, to cut taxes.
- Then the income will be even less.
- Yes. Today - less. But today's risks turn into lower risks of tomorrow, and the rejection of risks today may mean their increase tomorrow. This comparison of today and tomorrow, unfortunately, does not work well for us.
- And the promise not to raise taxes can be considered an example of a strategic decision?
- Yes, it can be considered - of course, if we actually fulfill it. Do you think business trusts us?
- Not.
- Because he knows we're looking for some kind of trick. For example, they said that there would be no sales tax, but instead they introduced municipal fees, which are even more harmful. The cure turned out to be worse than the disease. Well, then they stung, made the medicine not so harmful, but nevertheless - the spoons were found, but the sediment remained. The distrust remains. Moreover, the president said - not only tax rates, but tax conditions [should not change], that is, both new types of taxes and new types of administration should fall under this. And business thinks: they will come up with something like that anyway. Here, for example, how threshold value[contributions to] MHIF: have we not changed the fundamental conditions or have we changed how this is calculated?
- Of course they did.
- Here you go.
What can be done to regain trust? For example, in a municipal fee situation, what would be the right thing to do?
- In order to restore confidence in general in our readiness, ability to meet our commitments, it would be correct to say that we understand that although fees were introduced before the moratorium [on growth tax burden], it would still be better to freeze them. That is, leave them as a regulatory framework, but do not apply it for the same four years.
- To freeze - is it to be introduced in federal cities, as expected, and not to be extended to other regions, or not to be introduced anywhere at all?
- This is discussed. But the stronger the decision, the more trust. If we say that we have made a decision on principle, but are ready to postpone its implementation until the deadline indicated in the message, then there would probably be more trust.
- Your latest version of the forecast caused discontent in the Kremlin, [Presidential Aide Andrei] Belousov spoke critically about the projected decline real income population.
- So this is pure arithmetic: if you have an average annual inflation of 10%, and you have included [in the budget] indexation according to the level of past inflation, of course, there will be a decline. How did he say - "a set of numbers"? And I don’t have another set of numbers for you, as long as such a set of letters is in the laws being passed.
- Perhaps the criticism is caused by the fact that there was no decline in income even in 2009, and their fall may somewhat blur the electoral base of support for the authorities?
- Perhaps, but this is not a matter of forecasting, but of politics. A forecast is a mirror: I look in the mirror and I don’t like myself, you can break the mirror, or you can correct me, right? If we see that a really serious social problem arises, then we must try to respond to it. Maybe try to do something about inflation, or finally introduce targeted social support, or do something else.
- Do you expect that social protests will be added to the economic turmoil?
- Honestly, I don't. There were no big [social] problems during the last crisis. And 2015 does not cause much concern. Unemployment is practically not growing, budget obligations are being fulfilled. Inflation is the main problem, but not too acute yet.
- During the last crisis, the Ministry of Economic Development reduced anti-crisis plans, now, the impression is that the center of decisions has shifted to the Central Bank and partly the Ministry of Finance, the president instructed the ASI to develop the national technological initiative in general. It seems that the role of the ministry is becoming less important. What's happening? Or does it just seem so?
- Partly it seems, partly happens. During the last crisis, I worked at the Central Bank, and it seems to me that at that time the Central Bank was mainly inventing and proposing measures, but this may be subjective. But what you said is true.
You know, there are simple things. For example, creating reserves: I have 100 rubles. - if I spend them, what will I be left with? It's simple, understandable logic. There is another simple logic: you can draw some technological maps - there are no risks, but suddenly it will help. But if there are some risks… We offer various risky exercises: for example, additional expenses for infrastructure projects are already a risk. Decreasing regulatory pressure on business is also a risk: let's reduce the regulation of small businesses, what if they poison the people with something? And, apparently, I do not have the strength to convince my colleagues that today's risk turns into tomorrow's rectification of the situation and, conversely, the rejection of today's risk means twice the risks tomorrow.
- How do you, a central banker with many years of experience, assess what you have done with Rosneft?
- No comment.
- And what if this practice of actually issuing financing becomes permanent? There are other companies that also have debts.
- It is unlikely that this practice will be widespread. On the other hand, of course, if you declare that you will reduce the provision of liquidity to banks in order to stabilize the situation in the domestic foreign exchange market and at the same time take an action that seriously increases this liquidity, then apparently you will not achieve what you stated in your purposes.
- Does the scale of the past devaluation help some sectors?
- Of course, some help. Let's take gas production: Gazprom's share of imported components and technologies is 15%, and the share of export foreign exchange supplies is 70%. That is, for the company as a whole, this means an increase in EBITDA, an increase in return on capital. And so for almost all mining companies, their dependence on imports is less than 20%. In mechanical engineering - over 40%, in some segments even more, and their sales, on the contrary, mostly fall on the domestic market.
- But this slows down the process of transition to growth of at least 3%, which requires a technological update?
- Of course.
- What to do?
- It would be nice to achieve stability in the foreign exchange market.
- Have we chosen the entire potential for the weakening of the ruble or is there no limit to it?
- Of course not. After all, there is another objective component associated with the price of oil. Market participants simply act: they multiply the rate by the price of a barrel of oil, and if we get less than 3600-3700, then the rate is not weakened enough, it is logical to assume an even greater weakening.
- Does the Ministry of Finance regulate this relationship?
- No, the market participants themselves, with an eye on these general terms and Conditions. Another factor is the debt repayment and service schedule. But after a period of great turbulence, there must always come a period when the market finds a course that suits it, which is clear to both sellers and buyers, when they can predict the future conjuncture and they will not need to make sudden movements.
- 100 rubles / $ see?
- If we go in for sports and eat right, of course, we will see - because we will live a long time. (Laughs.)
- Do you support the idea of coordinating with exporters a schedule for the sale of foreign exchange earnings so that they do not adhere to it?
- I'm not opposed to the fact that we just agreed. That is, they would explain, tell the exporter about their considerations, listen to his explanations. It's just about coordinating the sales schedule by day: the situation on Thursday from the situation on Tuesday can be very different, the Central Bank may come out with some kind of intervention, this has already happened. It is very difficult to predict the exchange rate in the day mode, the exporter may lose a little by holding the currency. But in general, any attempts to put pressure on the exporter will lead to the opposite result. If you say that tomorrow they will ban vodka, they will drink all of it today.
- When do we have the opportunity to return to our new normal, to 3% growth?
- Based on the forecast, in 2017
- And what will happen in these two years, what will change?
- Firstly, the markets will find a natural equilibrium state, including the price of oil. You know, if oil were to decline from a peak of $115 to $85-90, one would assume that this is for a very long time, that this is part of a long-term trend, and if it falls from $115 to $60, the price will rebound with a high degree of probability. Any sharp decrease is the probability of a subsequent sharp increase. And vice versa. Perhaps in the near future we will see completely different price parameters, and after that, exchange rates. This will be very beneficial for the economy and for the household budget, which is more important. Secondly, there is a set of measures that improve the conditions for business: a moratorium on the deterioration tax conditions, limitation of checks, project finance- all this should work.
Thirdly, a strong devaluation means a reduction in costs for companies: in 2015 we will see that the share wages in GDP decreased, while the share of company profits increased. By doing so, today we are breaking the very cycle of increasing costs - not because we are so smart, it just happened that way. This means that, other things being equal, companies have a basis for the growth of investments, if, of course, we, by our actions in economic policy let's not interfere with it.
- That is main risk- the actions of the authorities?
- In a way, yes.
- In the summer you proposed to stimulate the economy: soften the budget rule, direct 100% of the NWF to investment projects. Are you of the same opinion now?
- Exactly the same. In a relationship budget rule we agreed that it must be respected. It turns out that it is observed in one direction: when there is windfall revenue due to high oil prices, they should accumulate in reserve funds. But when the situation changes, oil prices fall - we say that we will not spend additional funds, because we are afraid of additional risks. It turns out a one-sided design.
As for the NWF, in my opinion, this is a form of existence of national assets. You have oil in the ground, you can leave it there for your children and grandchildren - this is the first strategy. There is a second one: to mine and turn it into a liquid form, place it in liquid instruments. Of course, both the first and second strategies have risks. By the time you decide to extract this oil, it may already be worth nothing, as they can invent something else. And what about liquid assets - will they really remain liquid and reliable? You don't know. The third option is to invest to achieve strategic goals. I argue that our strategic goals are very dependent on what kind of infrastructure we create. road construction, railway, port, telecommunications - it depends on whether we will have opportunities for development.
- But so far we see big applications from the oil and gas sector. Is it possible to invest in this sector of the NWF or does it contradict the idea of investing in strategic goals?
- AT regulatory framework nothing is directly said about this, but, firstly, these should be infrastructure projects, and secondly, according to the logic, investments from the NWF should be made where and when private business is not ready for this. It seems that oil and gas is the sector where investors are already ready to invest. But there is a third point: our large oil and gas companies are quite diversified, they have projects in areas that are not directly related to oil and gas production, only indirectly. Such projects can also be classified as infrastructural.
- Can oil refining be classified as infrastructure? In its application, Rosneft is asking for money for all nine of its refineries.
- I think not, this is a competitive business. But, probably, under certain circumstances, the funds of the NWF can also be directed to oil refining. Here again the question is how we treat the funds of the National Welfare Fund. The more commercial the project, the higher its liquidity, the greater the commercial component of the NWF - the greater the safety and the higher the profitability. And if our goal is to multiply the fund, then go ahead, invest in refineries. But if we want to create conditions for other businesses, not only government ones, then oil production and oil refining do not really fit into such a paradigm. I prefer the second approach. Funds of the NWF - in order to help private business, not to replace it. The Ministry of Economic Development has now received an application for only four projects. Including at the Komsomolsky refinery - of course, this is a good project, but other refineries immediately follow it, if you open the damper for one, you open it for everyone. So far, one project is obvious to me - the Far Eastern Shipbuilding Center. I understand exactly why it is needed.
- Doesn't the fact that the project has high payback risks bother you?
- A little embarrassing, but it's always a choice. Again, if we were interested in projects with low risks and high returns, this is one thing, but we should invest in places where private business does not go just because of the high risks.
- But oil and gas companies say that just in the situation when they cannot attract private money to the project, they can borrow from Asian investors, but they, in the absence of competition, offer unfavorable conditions. Is this the basis for state aid?
- Reason for reflection - of course. I understand this reasoning, I'm not ready to say that we put some kind of damper for such projects. But we have a finite amount of funds, so we must prioritize. I ask the Ministry of Energy: from your point of view, from the point of view of energy efficiency, energy security, energy balance, what is more important now - production, transportation, distribution or processing? You tell me - and I will move in your direction.
- And if the Ministry of Energy says that production is important, will you agree to invest in the FNB in production? Rosneft is asking for two such projects.
- Of course, their opinion will be very important for me, because they are specialists. Maybe extraction is more important than oil refining. My competence is not enough, so I would like to receive guidance from the Ministry of Energy.
- Are there already applications for project financing? Will there be any priorities in the selection of projects, as in the case of the NWF funds?
- There are no formal applications yet, but I think that they will not keep you waiting. Before the end of the year, we plan to hold the first meeting of the commission.
- Concerning the idea of directing the National Welfare Fund to increase the capitalization of banks, which will then direct these funds to projects: remember, the Ministry of Economic Development proposed to allocate 20% for these purposes - in excess of the 60% limit allowed for Russian projects? So far, the Ministry of Finance has rejected this idea. Will you insist on it further?
- We will. After all, we place this money in banks on the terms of the "key rate plus 1%", and at the same rate, banks issue money to the final recipients - that is, they do not receive any margin from this operation. By issuing a subordinated loan to a bank, we give it both liquidity and capital, but we give liquidity without margin for a specific project we have chosen. The bank has worked out this "corvée", and it still has capital: it will be able to attract funding from the market, through deposits or bonds, without restrictions, direct them to loans and earn money already on this.
- It's just that last week the government submitted a draft law to the State Duma, which allows directing money, including for simple bank deposits.
- This is not for this scheme with the capitalization of banks, it just provides an additional tool and additional freedom for maneuver. I hope we don't abuse it.
- The President instructed state-owned companies to make under control financial flows, get rid of non-core assets, reduce operating costs by 3% per year. How difficult is the process?
- Of course, it's hard.
- How can this be helped? A year ago, an order was already given to reduce the costs of natural monopolies by 10%, but, as far as is known, many companies, instead of reducing them, provided replies explaining why they could not do anything.
- The year is not over yet, next year we will see the results of this work. I do not want to speak in terms of unsubscribes, but it was really not easy. But what can you do - life is life. It's like a sword and shield match. I am a sword, I want you to spend less, you are a shield, you want to protect yourself from this. But it always happens. As a result, there will be some kind of compromise: even if we do not achieve a reduction of 10%, we will achieve something. It's better than nothing at all.
Pros from cons
The weakening of the exchange rate benefits domestic producers by reducing costs. There is a point of view that import substitution will stretch the entire economy, there is another - that the effect will be temporary and short-lived: production can increase due to additional loading of existing capacities, and no one will invest in new ones with high uncertainty.
In such a situation, the state should support the domestic producer, Ulyukaev believes: to provide cheap funding, guarantees - to strengthen the positive market trend that appears due to the fact that the producer's costs are lower than the importer's costs. It is more profitable to replace products that can be produced at lower costs than others, gaining advantages in the foreign market. Therefore, Ulyukaev agrees, for the Ministry of Economic Development, import substitution and export support are one and the same: “We want to help those exporting companies whose costs are quite high, but with exchange rate changes, their costs are reduced and they get the opportunity to win back their share not only on domestic, but also in the foreign market.
According to the minister, Russia can compete in the markets of agriculture, the food industry, thermal generation, hydropower generation, energy and energy industries, such as nuclear power - “it’s just a golden time for it, we can supply our units to dozens of countries.” All this applies to large and state-owned companies - therefore, the ministry intends to set quotas for orders from state-owned companies from small and medium-sized businesses, Ulyukayev says: “We want a trail of accompanying small and medium-sized businesses that would make components around state-owned companies.”
"Vedomosti" from 12/18/2014
