The production of a product with high added value, technological and competitive goods is the key to a successful future state, and the import substitution program in Russia until 2020 is one of the important measures to diversify the country's economy and the right step towards Industry 4.0, which will help our country get rid of oil and gas dependence. What does this strategy include and what elements of it have already been implemented?
The import substitution program in Russia until 2020 is, first of all, a measure for the government of our country to solve the issue of food and commodity security. Secondly, the competitiveness of Russian goods supplied abroad and the technological development of the Russian economy depend on its implementation. Attempts to introduce systemic measures have been made by the authorities since 2012, when the State Program for the Support and Development of the Agricultural Market for 2013-2020 was developed.
The implementation of the strategy was prevented by sanctions from the United States and European countries. Ultimately, the issue of import substitution until 2020 has become a "edge". The result of finding ways to resolve the legal and economic conflicts that have arisen has become a key document - Program No. 328 dated April 15, 2014 on the development of industry and increasing the competitiveness of Russian production in the international arena. In addition, other legislative acts were issued, which were united by a common goal: the formation of a specific position in the country regarding import substitution.
On August 4, 2015, a departmental commission was established under the Government of the Russian Federation, which operates on the basis of the RF Government Resolution of August 4, 2015 N785 and the order of the Government of the Russian Federation of August 4, 2015 No. 1492-r.
In the latest legislative act, the list of responsible persons is named:
The import substitution strategy establishes certain "rules of the game" for all participants in the civil turnover.
In short, the purpose of this program No. 328 is to regulate the production sector in Russia, taking into account the mechanisms of import substitution. The provisions of the document also take into account the data from the Strategy for Innovative Development of the Russian Federation dated December 08, 2011 No. 2227-r.
The objectives of the program are:
Note! The document does not contain a specific mechanism of action, it only indicates the general goals, objectives, criteria for achieving the planned results, the composition of the commission, etc., necessary for the implementation of the process of replacing foreign-made products with domestic counterparts. Those. considered exclusively the legal side of the issue.
The implementation of the above goals is achieved, incl. at the expense of investments within the framework of the Program dated 11.10.2014 No. 1044.
The results of the implementation of the strategy by 2020 should be:
With the introduction of sanctions, the Russian Federation took retaliatory measures towards the West. So, our country stopped importing goods from Australia, Norway and the USA. The list of import-substituting goods is presented in GD No. 1421 dated 12/19/2014.
Among the food items it is worth noting:
In the field of mechanical engineering, there are also significant restrictions on the import of products. On the official portal State system legal information contains a list of goods, the import of which into the country is impossible without obtaining permission from the departmental commission under the Government of the Russian Federation. The list of permitted products for import includes:
With the IT-sphere, everything is much more complicated, since in Russia there are no analogues of many foreign gadgets and software. Therefore, on November 15, 2015, the Government approved the creation of a unified "Register of Russian Software", in which Russian IT projects are named, which in the future will have priority over foreign ones in public procurement. The GD dated November 16, 2015 No. 1236 refers to the prohibition of the use of foreign software in municipal and public institutions. But this document does not exclude the option of installing such software in the absence of domestic analogues.
Since June 2015, more than 350 import substitution projects have been implemented in Russia. Within 2-3 years, about 780 more will be implemented. But at the same time, a quarter of them are joint investment projects with foreign corporations and banks.
According to the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov, in 2016-2017 alone, 350 high-tech industries were launched in the Russian Federation.
The best results over the past 5 years have shown:
Growth at the level of 10-15% is observed in the following industries:
Growth at the level of 4-8% was recorded in the field of:
Despite all the measures state support industry as part of the import substitution program until 2020, the share of imports continues to grow. So, for January-November 2017, the growth was 24%, and the indicator is 181.4 billion USD. And in 2018, the FCS stated an increase of 6.1 percentage points compared to the reporting period of 2017.
Our country still needs to create its own high-tech corporations with minimal participation of foreign capital, such as the Japanese production of Schneider Electric, Microsemi and Sumitomo Electric. The IT sector also requires special attention, since import substitution in this area is the slowest.
Import substitution is the reduction or cessation of imports of certain goods by launching their own production of similar goods.
The most promising for import substitution are the following industries:
Import substitution in these and other industries is possible only if there are appropriate free production capacity and competitive enterprises that can offer quality products at market prices.
In the long term, reducing import dependence is possible through innovation and stimulation of investment in technical industries and the creation of new industries.
Opinion: It is impossible not to notice the country's huge successes in the field of agriculture and the food industry. Think about it - in the 90s we received humanitarian aid, people were starving. And now we are the first in the export of wheat.
Chicken, pork, for some time now beef - the country is completely self-sufficient. Turkish tomatoes were banned, everyone immediately noticed that it turned out that we had excellent vegetables from Rostov - much more delicious than any foreign ones. By the way, Turkey raises agriculture on its territory by banning the import of fruits and vegetables from other countries - and no claims against them.
Pasta - even Italians who know a lot about this consider products from Russia to be of very high quality.
There is a problem with cheese. For several years it has advanced, but there is work to be done here.
As for clothes, the same Ivanovo sews a full range: yes, there are questions about styles, fashion, but the quality is higher than what is massively brought from abroad.
Unfortunately, there are failures in the field of high technology, robotics, biotechnology - at least this is noticeable based on the analysis of the press.
Another positive: according to statistics for the summer of 17, the production of medicines has significantly increased.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, if a well-thought-out policy of import substitution is implemented by 2020, one can count on a decrease in import dependence in various industries from the level of 70-90% to the level of 50-60%. And in a number of industries, it is possible to reach lower rates.
Being an open country, integrated into the international economic system, It is difficult for Russia to produce a whole range of goods, due to the fact that these goods produced in our country will be more expensive. This is criticized, since Russia has oil, electricity is cheaper than many of its neighbors, the level of wages is not high - there are all conditions to develop their industry and agriculture.
A great danger is that for the oil industry a significant part of the components and services for the maintenance of equipment, wells is carried out by foreign companies. In the event of their demarche, the level of oil production will fall. But replacement measures are being taken, including, judging by the media, joint measures with other oil-producing countries.
Definitely, after more than 20 years of an exclusively raw-material nature of the economy, when we sell metals, oil, fertilizer gas, and import almost all vital products, it is very difficult to quickly adjust to new tracks and start producing many goods on our own. though market economy, ask a large number of entrepreneurs - solve this problem (a similar situation was after the war with).
The state creates special sectoral funds that support large enterprises working in the area of replacement.
The sanctions restrictions of Western countries have affected the supply in the field of the military-industrial and fuel and energy complexes and new technologies. Russia has restricted the import of a number of food products from countries that have imposed sanctions.
Such a big state as Russia cannot be dependent on other countries. During the period of instability in the 90s, the country's leadership, while solving current problems, could not operate with plans for the future. Now they are being built for decades to come, they are being calculated.
The discourse of socialism has been raised. Society became keenly interested in the economy and ways of the country.
It cannot be said that the reason for import substitution is only sanctions and tense relations with several countries (note that we are talking about only a few countries, albeit very developed ones). Opportunities arose, the country rethought itself, its place. Yes, something will be more expensive (now almost any product in any country will be more expensive than in China, India), but we cannot avoid producing our own.
The exhibition is based on collective expositions of Russian regions, which will be presented by enterprises, organizations and departments involved in the production of import-substituting products. The Moscow region is represented by both individual cities and enterprises. However, it was interesting to see what the regions are doing.
Ryazan Oblast. 
Voronezh region. 
Vologodskaya Oblast. 
Lipetsk region - very bright, representative, one of the best stands. 
Altai Territory - this stand is always surrounded by attention - it is also very representative and interesting. 
Tula region. 
The Krasnodar Territory is stylish, noticeable.
Further our small sketch on separate stands. 
Motherboards of domestic production and information security systems. 
Snowmobiles. 
Something incredibly large and powerful, and even with a boat motor in the back. 
We dig everything. 
Solutions for mobile trading. 
The medicine.
Basic law for economic growth in the country is the excess of exports over imports of goods. Import substitution incentives have been applied by many countries, and currently this policy practiced.
Import substitution is a process of substitution imported goods domestic.
To implement the import substitution program, the government of the country can use several methods, which are used both individually and in combination:
Many countries have moved along the path of import substitution, and their experience testifies to both the positive aspects of import substitution and the negative ones.
We give a comparative description of import substitution in table 1.
Table 1
| Positive aspects of import substitution | Negative aspects of import substitution |
| Growth of employment of the population in the conditions of development of own production; | Efficiency national companies decreases as a result of easing competition; |
| Raise economic security countries; | With small volumes of the domestic market, the restriction of imports will lead to an increase in production costs; |
| Raising the level of education if it is necessary to develop innovative industries for the country. | The replacement of high-tech products is difficult if the development of their products is insufficient. |
In 2014, the Russian government set a course for import substitution. The stimulation of domestic producers was chosen as the main method of its implementation.
The need for import substitution in domestic economy long overdue. Russian economy For a long time it has been exclusively focused on raw materials, which has led to import dependence in industry, trade and other industries.
According to the Government of the Russian Federation, the share of imports in industry for machine tool building is 90%, for mechanical engineering - 70%, - 60%, for equipment energy industry- 50%, agricultural engineering from 50 to 90% (depending on the product category). In the pharmaceutical industry, the share of imports reaches 90%.
The impetus for the development of the import substitution program was the sanctions of Western countries against Russia.
At the beginning of 2014, a Government program No. 328 "Development of industry and increasing its competitiveness", the implementation period of which is calculated until 2020.
In autumn 2014, the Government began to actively support investment projects in the framework of import substitution.
The main sectors of the economy that have received the opportunity of state support under the import substitution program are:
The dependence of the domestic market on foreign supplies has a long list of goods, which reinforces this significance. Russian industry today cannot satisfy domestic demand both in quantitative and qualitative terms.
One of the reasons for this is the decline in the market of domestic industry in the last twenty years.
It is possible to overcome import dependence if domestic manufacturers are able to produce competitive products comparable in price and quality to foreign counterparts.
There are two ways to implement import substitution in the Russian industry:
The government has developed 20 individual programs on import substitution, which include more than two thousand areas of production, including:
For each industry, enterprises have been identified that will take part in the implementation of the program, and incentive measures have been developed for them that take into account their specifics.
To control the implementation of these programs, working groups have been created that sum up interim quarterly results, and also help to establish communication between the manufacturer and the buyer.
According to the results of 3 quarters of 2016, there is an increase in production in the following areas (compared to the same period last year):
The 21st century is the age of high technology. But the situation on the Russian software market leaves much to be desired. The country's dependence on foreign software is high, both for domestic use and at the level of large enterprises.
Displacing global brands from the market even by 10% will not be an easy task, since the bulk purchase of the IT base was made from Western suppliers, and is now at their service. Even in banking the use of Western software everywhere.
The main task in the implementation of the import substitution program in the IT sphere is not the rejection of foreign programs, but the creation of such conditions in the country under which:
Table 2 presents the results of the implementation of import substitution in the direction of IT, which should be achieved.
table 2
Thus, with the positive results of import substitution, Russia will be able to get away from import dependence in many sectors of the economy. Stimulation of own production will create jobs and improve financial situation the population of the country.
Import substitution is a process of gradual replacement of foreign goods with analogues of domestic production. In Russia, this issue has gained particular relevance after 2014, when the country faced sanctions. We decided to use Rosstat data to see how the import substitution program is progressing in the Russian Federation, in which areas it is being implemented, and which areas it affects.
In our previous article "", we touched in detail on the structure of imports to Russia. Then it turned out that the country spends a lot of money on the purchase of foreign equipment and machine tools. This position occupies almost half of all imports. Also, medicines, clothes, meat got to the top positions of the rating of key goods imported into the Russian Federation.
And it is in these sectors that the authorities want to restore order with the help of the import substitution program, achieving independent production of import-substituting goods and products.
And on the example of the first table, we can already notice how the process is progressing. Since 2014, when Russia banned the import of agricultural products, raw materials and foodstuffs from a number of countries into its territory with retaliatory sanctions, the country has been actively developing its own production. For example, it can be seen that the production of beef, pork, milk, cream, cottage cheese has grown well.
| Name | 2014, thousand tons | 2016, thousand tons | 2018, thousand tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cattle meat fresh, chilled | 185 | 195 | 226 |
| Pork steam, chilled | 1438 | 1947 | 2427 |
| Sausage products | 2475 | 2436 | 2276 |
| Frozen fish fillet | 110 | 141 | 157 |
| Processed liquid milk | 5349 | 5569 | 5568 |
| Cream | 115 | 125 | 149 |
| Cottage cheese | 387 | 410 | 499 |
| Butter | 250 | 251 | 258 |
| Cheese | 499 | 605 | 473 |
In 2016, there was a big jump in cheese production, but, as Rosstat data shows, for some reason in 2018 we again rolled back to the result of five years ago. Perhaps because good activity in the supply of dairy products on Russian market shows Belarus. Judging by the following table, thanks to Moscow's sanctions, Minsk found itself in a very advantageous situation, becoming almost the main supplier of food.
Recall that Russia has imposed food sanctions against the United States, EU countries, Canada, Australia, Norway, Ukraine, Albania, Montenegro, Iceland, Liechtenstein. The sanctions have been repeatedly extended and are now valid until December 31, 2019.
| Name | Total for 2018, thousand tons | Key suppliers for 2018, thousand tons |
|---|---|---|
| Meat of cattle, fresh | 100,5 | Belarus - 98.6 |
| Pork fresh | 61,3 | Chile - 29.2 Brazil - 12.3 Argentina - 7.4 Belarus - 6.7 |
| Condensed milk and cream | 166,8 | Belarus - 146.1 Uruguay - 6.2 New Zealand - 3.1 |
| Yogurt, kefir | 116,9 | Belarus - 108.2 Kazakhstan - 8.0 |
| Butter | 89,3 | Belarus - 68.2 New Zealand - 6.7 Uruguay - 6.6 |
| Cheese and cottage cheese | 266,8 | Belarus - 224.6 Serbia - 11.4 Argentina - 11.3 |
| Potato | 573,0 | Egypt - 361.4 Azerbaijan - 64.5 Belarus - 53.4 China - 53.1 |
| fresh tomatoes | 577,7 | Azerbaijan - 169.9 Morocco - 91.6 China - 88.0 Belarus - 57.1 Turkey - 34.9 Iran - 34.8 |
| Cabbage | 137,7 | China - 45.3 Belarus - 22.1 Uzbekistan - 21.7 |
| Bananas | 1 556,7 | Ecuador - 1,494.9 Costa Rica - 22.2 Guatemala - 12.5 |
| Citrus | 1 682,8 | Turkey - 578.5 Egypt - 274.4 Morocco - 237.7 China - 180.1 South Africa - 156.9 |
| Grape | 320,0 | Turkey - 92.6 Uzbekistan - 52.2 Moldova - 37.1 India - 29.7 |
| Apples, pears | 1 121,7 | Moldova - 246.5 China - 167.7 Serbia - 132.0 Belarus - 122.6 Argentina - 100.1 |
| Coconuts, cashews | 26,3 | Philippines - 8.1 Indonesia - 6.6 Vietnam - 6.5 Ivory Coast - 2.4 |
Thanks to import substitution, the share of imported food products in retail trade resources fell from 34% to 24% from 2014 to 2018. Share of imported consumer goods over the same period decreased from 42% to 36%.
| Year | Share of imported consumer goods in retail trade resources, % | Share of imported foodstuffs in retail trade resources, % |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 36 | 24 |
| 2017 | 35 | 23 |
| 2016 | 38 | 23 |
| 2015 | 38 | 28 |
| 2014 | 42 | 34 |
| 2013 | 44 | 36 |
| 2012 | 44 | 34 |
If you look in more detail, the share of imported beef, pork, poultry meat, and milk has fallen sharply.
| Name | January-September 2014, % | January-September 2018, % |
|---|---|---|
| Meat and poultry, including by-products | 19,6 | 7,7 |
| Beef, including offal | 59,1 | 45,1 |
| Pork, including offal | 17,0 | 2,0 |
| Sausage products | 2,4 | 1,6 |
| Flour | 1,0 | 0,9 |
| Vegetable oils | 14,0 | 17,9 |
| Powdered milk and cream | 45,2 | 34,5 |
The success of import substitution is noticeable not only in the field of food security. Active work is also going on in such areas as:
In order to implement public policy to promote domestic products was created Government Commission on Import Substitution, which meets regularly.
At one of the last meetings the situation in the light industry was discussed. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that 23 areas of import substitution have been identified in the light industry. The "road map" of the industry is almost half completed. According to Medvedev, competitive production of fabrics, leather, clothing and footwear has appeared in the country. Samples of modern equipment for athletes produced in the Russian Federation began to appear in stores.
At the end of 2018, supplies of textiles and footwear from the Russian Federation to the CIS countries increased by more than 10%. Exports to the rest of the world increased by about 5%. At the same time, as experts note, there is still a lot of work to be done, since the share of imported clothing and footwear on the Russian market is two-thirds.
Achievements are also recorded in mechanical engineering. For example, in 2017, the production of Russian cars, including cars of world brands, increased by almost 20%. Also, the production of domestic agricultural machinery, which today already occupies more than half of the country's market, increased by 21%. The production of food equipment, that is, machines for the production of milk and meat processing, increased by almost 20%. About a third of the equipment is exported. Production of construction and municipal equipment jumped by 27%.
In total, according to the results of the past year, almost 640 billion rubles were invested in the creation of Russian industrial substitutes for foreign products. Of this amount, the state accounted for only 70 billion rubles.
Separately, I would like to dwell on import substitution in IT. On the one hand, there are a number of problems that slow down a large-scale transition to domestic software. Among them:
But on the other hand, the process is running and it can no longer be stopped. For example, a register of domestic software is actively operating, from which state-owned companies must choose their products when purchasing. Today, the registry contains more than 4,000 titles of Russian software. Market participants will obviously not be constrained in their choice.
Keep in mind that the registry was launched in 2016. The register may include products of companies in which a controlling stake is owned by a citizen of the Russian Federation. When creating a Russian product, it is allowed to use foreign components, but to get into the register, it is necessary that deductions to a foreign partner do not exceed 30% of turnover.
At the end of last year, the head of the Ministry of Finance, Anton Siluanov, signed a directive, according to which state-owned companies should develop a plan for an active transition to domestic software. Until 2021, the share of Russian IT developments in state-owned companies should exceed 50% of the volume of software used.
But not only state-owned companies are switching to domestic software. An analysis of import substitution projects shows that Alt operating systems, MyOffice office software, and Kaspersky Anti-Virus are being actively switched educational institutions, judicial system, ministries, departments, etc.
Considering such advantages of domestic counterparts as low cost compared to foreign models, a better understanding of user needs, operational technical support, it is likely that the process of import substitution will only accelerate.
There is also some progress in the direction of import substitution of medicines. For example, at the end of 2017, the share of Russian medicines for the treatment of hepatitis exceeded 77%. In the case of cardiovascular diseases, the share of domestic drugs approached 85%. For the treatment of oncology, Russian solutions are used in 60% of cases. Over the past 5 years, almost 90 billion rubles have been invested in the development of domestically produced drugs.
The country is actively strengthening its positions in foreign markets. Deliveries of pharmaceutical products abroad in 2017 increased by 16.6% to almost $700 million.
In conclusion, I would like to note that although the sanctions had a positive impact on the development of domestic production, in general, mutual trade restrictions hinder the growth dynamics of the country's economy. This also affects ordinary citizens, who have real income decline for several years in a row. Save the situation only. These are the ones that new customers can take for free.
Import substitution is the reduction or cessation of imports of certain goods by launching their own production of similar goods.
The most promising for import substitution are the following industries:
Import substitution in these and other industries is possible only if there are adequate free production capacities and competitive enterprises that can offer quality products at market prices.
In the long term, reducing import dependence is possible through innovation and stimulation of investment in technical industries and the creation of new industries.
Opinion: It is impossible not to notice the country's huge successes in the field of agriculture and the food industry. Think about it - in the 90s we received humanitarian aid, people were starving. And now we are the first in the export of wheat.
Chicken, pork, for some time now beef - the country is completely self-sufficient. Turkish tomatoes were banned, everyone immediately noticed that it turned out that we had excellent vegetables from Rostov - much more delicious than any foreign ones. By the way, Turkey raises agriculture on its territory by banning the import of fruits and vegetables from other countries - and no claims against them.
Pasta - even Italians who know a lot about this consider products from Russia to be of very high quality.
There is a problem with cheese. For several years it has advanced, but there is work to be done here.
As for clothes, the same Ivanovo sews a full range: yes, there are questions about styles, fashion, but the quality is higher than what is massively brought from abroad.
Unfortunately, there are failures in the field of high technology, robotics, biotechnology - at least this is noticeable based on the analysis of the press.
Another positive: according to statistics for the summer of 17, the production of medicines has significantly increased.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, if a well-thought-out policy of import substitution is implemented by 2020, one can count on a decrease in import dependence in various industries from the level of 70-90% to the level of 50-60%. And in a number of industries, it is possible to reach lower rates.
Being an open country, integrated into the international economic system, it is difficult for Russia to produce a whole range of goods, due to the fact that these goods produced in our country will be more expensive. This is criticized, since Russia has oil, electricity is cheaper than many of its neighbors, the level of wages is not high - there are all conditions to develop their industry and agriculture.
A great danger is that for the oil industry a significant part of the components and services for the maintenance of equipment, wells is carried out by foreign companies. In the event of their demarche, the level of oil production will fall. But replacement measures are being taken, including, judging by the media, joint measures with other oil-producing countries.
Definitely, after more than 20 years of an exclusively raw-material nature of the economy, when we sell metals, oil, fertilizer gas, and import almost all vital products, it is very difficult to quickly adjust to new tracks and start producing many goods on our own. However, the market economy, demand and a large number of entrepreneurs solve this problem (the situation was similar after the war with artels).
The state creates special sectoral funds that support large enterprises operating in the field of substitution.
The sanctions restrictions of Western countries have affected the supply in the field of the military-industrial and fuel and energy complexes and new technologies. Russia has restricted the import of a number of food products from countries that have imposed sanctions.
Such a big state as Russia cannot be dependent on other countries. During the period of instability in the 90s, the country's leadership, while solving current problems, could not operate with plans for the future. Now strategic forecasts are being built for decades to come, the weaknesses of the economy are being calculated.
The discourse of socialism has been raised. Society became keenly interested in the economy and ways of the country.
It cannot be said that the reason for import substitution is only sanctions and tense relations with several countries (note that we are talking about only a few countries, albeit very developed ones). Opportunities arose, the country rethought itself, its place. Yes, something will be more expensive (now almost any product in any country will be more expensive than in China, India), but we cannot avoid producing our own.
The exhibition is based on collective expositions of Russian regions, which will be presented by enterprises, organizations and departments involved in the production of import-substituting products. The Moscow region is represented by both individual cities and enterprises. However, it was interesting to see what the regions are doing.
Ryazan Oblast.
Voronezh region.
Vologodskaya Oblast.
Lipetsk region - very bright, representative, one of the best stands.
Altai Territory - this stand is always surrounded by attention - it is also very representative and interesting.
Tula region.
The Krasnodar Territory is stylish, noticeable.
Further our small sketch on separate stands.
Motherboards of domestic production and information security systems.
Snowmobiles.
Something incredibly large and powerful, and even with a boat motor in the back.
We dig everything.
Solutions for mobile trading.
The medicine.
