For the second year in a row, the population of Belarus has been increasing. However, experts believe that the reverse process will begin in the next 15 years. According to preliminary data from Belstat, the population of Belarus as of January 1, 2015 amounted to 9 million 481 thousand people, having increased by almost 13 thousand over the year. The natural decline in the population (more people died than were born by 2.9 thousand) was compensated by the increase in migration.
For the first time since 1993, the population of Belarus increased in 2013. The main factors due to which there were more Belarusians in both 2014 and 2013, despite the high mortality, - an increase in the number of births and migration growth, Naviny.by writes.
According to Belstat, in 2014, 118,697 children were born in Belarus, in 2013 - 118,463 children (in 2012 - 114,999). An increase in the birth rate in the country has been observed since 2004. In 2007, the number of children born for the first time in many years exceeded one hundred thousand - 103,626 children.
Migration growth in 2014 increased compared to previous year by 35%. A significant contribution to this indicator was made by citizens of Ukraine who left their homes due to hostilities.
And yet, according to the forecast of demographers, in the next 15 years the population of Belarus will decrease, according to the data of the resource center of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
The reduction in the country's population will occur due to negative natural growth. According to forecast estimates, rural areas will suffer the greatest demographic losses, while the situation in cities will be more favorable.
As for further development demographic processes in Belarus, it can be assumed that the reduction in the country's population will occur due to negative natural growth. According to forecast estimates, rural areas will suffer the greatest demographic losses, while the situation in cities will be more favorable. By 2030 urban population will increase by 2.6% (from 7.22 million to 7.41 million people), and its share will reach 80%. At the same time, the rural population is expected to decrease by almost 400,000 people over the forecast period, to reach 1.85 million people in 2030. Moreover, the population will decrease in all regions, with the exception of Minsk, whose population will increase at a slow pace.
At the same time, the Resource Center notes that Belarus is characterized by one of the most high performance fertility in your region. The total fertility rate in Belarus continues to grow and is already 1.6 per woman, which corresponds to the birth rate in the most developed countries. But, as before, this is not enough for a simple reproduction of the population.
Experts note that the so-called features of “European” reproductive behavior among the population of Belarus have recently become noticeable. This is manifested in the desire of the population for self-realization, career growth, high standards of consumption. Like many European countries, Belarus is characterized by a tendency to increase the average age of women at the birth of their first child. In 2013, the average age of a woman at the birth of a child was 28 years (at the birth of her first child - 25.4 years). For comparison: in Italy - 31.4, in Japan - 31.3.
There is also a tendency to increase the average age at first marriage: for women - 25 years, for men - 27.1 years.
The census forms have already appeared on the Belstat website. TUT.BY looked at what questions the residents of our country will be asked.
The picture is used as an illustration. Photo: Olga Shukaylo, TUT.BY
It all starts with the standard "last name, first name, patronymic, date of birth, marital status, place of birth, level of education." In addition, people will be asked, for example:
You can see what the census sheet looks like. - something that will be of interest to statistics regarding your housing.
They will also ask the inhabitants of the country about what language a person considers native, what language he speaks. They will ask what nationality he considers himself to be. But there will be no questions about religion. Not everyone, experts say, maybe he wants to answer it. In addition, they specify in Belstat, all this can subsequently cause misunderstanding in society.
– For Belarus today, the topic of labor migration is relevant, therefore, among the questions that will first appear during the census is the clarification of information on migration, lists the novelties Inna Medvedeva, chairman of the National Statistical Committee. - The topic of demography is very acute for the country, so we will ask women about planning and having children.
The main innovation will be a questionnaire on agriculture. He, experts explain, is needed to calculate the contribution of the population to the gross agricultural output. Specialists will, for example, be interested in how much a person has land plots what grows on them, how many apple trees, pears, cherries, etc. stand in the garden, whether a person keeps cattle, birds, bees.
- This information will be only for state statistics bodies. Neither the regulatory authorities nor the tax authorities will receive this information, - Inna Medvedeva warns and says that it is precisely the questions on agriculture most often confuse people. And even the young population. At the trial census in Molodechno, I even argued with a young man of about 28, who told me: “I give you a grudge that tomorrow they will come to me and count all the trees. And then the extra will have to be cut down. It is important for us to understand the population and not be afraid to answer our questions.
Experts are asked not to be afraid to give the identification number.
“After filling it out, the census taker will immediately download some of the information from the population register,” explains the chairman of the National Statistical Committee. - This is about 15-20 percent of the census sheet. For verification, the census taker will simply reread this information for you. So we will reduce the filling time. If a person refuses to give an identification number - the last name, first name, patronymic, gender, date of birth and some other information will be typed manually.
By the way, you can fill out the questionnaires both in Belarusian and in Russian. The data will be "hammered" into the tablets. It will take about five minutes for everything, plus a little more time to complete the questionnaire on agricultural activities.
The next population census in Belarus will take place on October 14-24, 2009.
For the first time Belarusians were counted at the end of the nineteenth century, when in Russian Empire The first general census was carried out. According to it, 6.5 million people lived on the modern territory of Belarus. Belarusians were counted seven times in the USSR during the all-Union censuses - in 1926, 1937, 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989. 10 years ago, a general census took place already in sovereign Belarus, where 10 million 45 thousand people were counted.
As Natalya Semyonova, Head of the Department of Statistics of the city of Bobruisk and Bobruisk region, said, more than a thousand people are planned to be involved in the population census in Bobruisk. 140 premises will be allocated for the work of temporary census staff.
All enumerators will have special IDs and badges. This is a fundamental point. Moreover, the time of the survey must be agreed with each of the tenants in advance - three days in advance. And so that only two parties know about the future meeting.
In general, to participate in the preparation and conduct of the census in Bobruisk, it is planned to involve participants in the 1999 census, activists who participated in the elections to local Councils of Deputies, as well as employees of enterprises and organizations of the city, students of higher educational institutions.
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Vladimir Zinovsky,
Chairman of the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus:
The census has essential for any state, since it is a comprehensive source of statistical information about the size, location and composition of the population in it and allows you to reflect all the changes that have occurred over a certain historical period. Its unique role is also associated with the possibility of obtaining information not only at the national level, but also at the level of small territories: city blocks, microdistricts, rural settlements. It is no coincidence that the population census data are the basis for the development of state forecasts of the country's socio-economic development, current calculations and forecasting of the size and composition of the population.
The UN Economic and Social Council resolution announcing the 2010 round of population and housing censuses (from 2005 to 2014) emphasizes that “periodically conducted population and housing censuses for the country as a whole and its administrative regions are one of the main sources of data needed for effective development planning and monitoring demographic problems and trends, policies and programs in the socio-economic and environmental fields”.
Belarus has decided to conduct the next population census from 14 to 24 October 2009. Its results will go down not only in the history of our country, but will also become integral part the world population census conducted under the World Population and Housing Census Programme.
Of course, an event of this magnitude requires a particularly careful approach. It is no coincidence that the entire cycle of work on the preparation and conduct of the population census in the republic, the processing of personal data and the dissemination of the final results covers 5 years: from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2011.
The key point in the methodological support of the population census is the preparation of its program, which is a list of issues on which personal data is collected. The 2009 census program was designed to meet the needs of the country at both the national and regional levels; ensuring the maximum degree of comparability with the results of previous censuses conducted on the territory of Belarus, and international comparability of data based on the recommendations of the Conference of European Statisticians; willingness and ability of interviewees to provide relevant information on the questions asked.
The draft program has been repeatedly submitted for approval by the interested authorities government controlled, local executive and administrative authorities.
In terms of preparation, the pilot 2007 census was also of great importance, during which the acceptability of the draft program for the 2009 census was tested.
As a result, the Decree of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus dated May 29, 2008 No. 765 approved the census program, which includes 37 most important questions, the answers to which will provide detailed demographic, national, cultural and socio-economic characteristics of the population.
The census program is placed on 3 census forms:
- form 1-room “Characteristics of the dwelling. List of household members permanently residing in the premises” contains the address of the residential premises, a list of persons permanently residing in it, and living conditions households living in single-family residential buildings and apartments;
- Form 2H "Census Form" is filled in for each respondent permanently residing in the Republic of Belarus;
- form 3ВН contains questions to citizens temporarily staying in the territory of our country;
In addition, the "Census Checklist" is filled in for persons temporarily residing (staying) from October 14 to October 24 in a residential building, in a hotel, hospital, sanatorium and other organization with a temporarily residing (staying) population, if they report that they did not pass the census and there is no one to provide information about them at their place of permanent residence.
In turn, form 5 "Control chip" is filled out for persons who have two or more places of residence and have chosen this dwelling for the population census. In this case, the respondent takes the census in general order, and the control chip is sent to the address of another place of residence in order to avoid double counting.
Finally, the “Census Census Certificate” is issued to respondents who have a control token; temporarily located on the territory of the Republic of Belarus; those who intend to travel to another place for at least one day during the period of the population census and control tour; without a permanent place of residence (homeless).
The census forms are filled in Russian or Belarusian at the request of the respondent.
The date of the census is set as at 0000 hours on October 14, 2009, the data are entered into the census forms at the time of the population count.
The collection of personal data on events that occurred after the moment of counting the population is not carried out. For example, the census forms are not filled out for children born after the moment of population enumeration, but are filled out for persons who died after it.
The period for completing the census documentation forms will be 11 days - from 14 to 24 October 2009. This is 3 days more than in the 1999 census.
The main method of conducting a population census is to interview respondents during visits to residential and other premises in which they live or can live.
In order to save time on visiting residential premises, enumerators are allowed to enter information on the census sheets about absent family members who live with them, if they can provide exhaustive answers to all questions of the census form. If it is not possible to obtain such answers, the census taker will be obliged to visit the dwelling again and personally interrogate the respondent who is absent from it during the first visit.
Given the reluctance of some respondents to take the census at their place of residence (this was clearly evidenced by the results of the pilot census), Belstat provides for the creation of stationary census tracts that will operate at a convenient time for the population. It is expected that more than 800 such sites will be formed.
The unity of the statistical methodology of the population census on the territory of the republic is ensured by carrying out all work in accordance with the instructions on the forms that are centrally developed and approved by Belstat and are mandatory for all census personnel. In total, 22 regulatory legal act regulating the activities of territorial statistical bodies and temporary census staff.
Who is subject to the census?
In order to ensure the correct population count, it is important to determine who is subject to the census. The 1999 census showed that the procedure for counting the population developed for its implementation quite fully covers all categories subject to the census, and the set of control measures used makes it possible to avoid both omissions and double counting. In this regard, there will be no changes in the procedure for registering the population compared to the last census.
In the course of the census, citizens of the Republic of Belarus, Foreign citizens and stateless persons permanently residing or temporarily residing in our country, foreign citizens and stateless persons permanently residing in the republic, but at the time of the population count temporarily residing in the territory foreign states.
The permanently resident population of the country will include:
- all permanently residing (including foreign citizens and stateless persons) residents of Belarus, who at the time of the population count were in the territory of the republic;
- permanently residing, but temporarily absent due to going abroad to work or study for up to 1 year, as well as on a business trip, for rest, treatment, visiting, etc., regardless of the period;
– those who arrived in the Republic of Belarus from other states to work or study for a period of 1 year or more;
- arrived at permanent place residence or in search of asylum, but have not yet received a residence permit, if their stay in the Republic of Belarus is 1 year or more.
Citizens of the Republic of Belarus, foreign citizens and stateless persons who, at the time of counting the population, arrived in the Republic from abroad for work or study for a period of less than 1 year or for another purpose (for recreation, treatment, visits, etc.) regardless of the period.
Not subject to census:
- foreign citizens who are heads and employees of diplomatic missions, consular offices and other representative offices of foreign states, representative offices of international organizations in the Republic of Belarus, and members of their families who have privileges and immunities in accordance with international treaties of our country;
- persons who have gone abroad to study or work for a period of 1 year or more.
Persons who have arrived in the country for a period of up to 1 year are considered short-term migrants and are counted as temporarily staying in the country.
The qualification for temporary absence from the place of permanent residence also applies to movements within the country. If the respondent left the locality for another locality for 1 year or more, then he should not correspond in this locality. If the respondent left for a period of up to 1 year, then he is rewritten with a note of temporary absence.
The population will be enumerated according to the place of permanent (usual) residence, which is a settlement, a single-family residential building, an apartment, other residential and other premises used for living, in which the respondent spends most of his time. This place may or may not coincide with the address at which the person is registered or registered. If the respondent has several places of residence, then preference is given to the one in which he lives with his family. So, for example, if a person has a residential or other premises in which he is registered (or registered), but lives with his family in another place (for example, in an apartment owned by his wife), then the collection of personal data about the respondent should be carried out at the place of his cohabitation with family. If the respondent lives in a dwelling or other premises located in the locality at the place of work, and on weekends or free days from work they leave for their family, which lives in another locality, then it is enumerated at the place of residence of his family.
Students (students) of educational institutions providing higher, secondary specialized, as well as vocational education, who arrived to study from other settlements of the republic and live at the place of study, are subject to a census at the address of temporary registration.
Conscripted military personnel, as well as contract servicemen and members of their families living in closed territories, are enumerated at the place of service. Military personnel and their families living outside the closed territories are enumerated on a common basis by census takers of the main areas.
Persons staying in institutional institutions (orphanages, orphanages, boarding schools) are enumerated as permanent residents.
Persons serving sentences in places of deprivation of liberty, who are in places of preliminary detention, in respect of which the sentence has entered into force, or who do not have a place of permanent residence, are enumerated at their location by the relevant internal affairs bodies.
In hotels, hospitals, rest houses, sanatoriums, etc. institutions, only those persons who do not have another place of residence are enumerated.
The census of special contingents of the population is carried out by government bodies that have such groups of the population in their jurisdiction. Features of the organization of the census are determined by the way of life or the order of maintenance of these categories of the population and are stipulated in special instructional materials developed by the relevant government bodies together with Belstat. In accordance with the Decree of the government of the country dated November 1, 2006 No. 1455, the republican government bodies responsible for the preparation and conduct of the census were determined certain categories population. These include the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the KGB, the State Committee for Border Troops, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection.
I will also add that in order to form a positive attitude of society towards the census, stimulating the population of the country to take part in it and provide reliable information, appropriate explanatory materials will be regularly distributed through the media, and at the time of data collection, each household will receive a special Announcement. In addition, a well-recognized logo of the population census, its slogan, was approved. All this, in our opinion, will contribute to the successful conduct of the census, increasing the confidence of respondents that the census taker is its official participant.
Upon completion of the census through funds mass media(September 2010 - November 2010) the population of the country will be familiarized with its results, characterizing its demographic and socio-economic situation.
In conclusion, I want to note once again that the population census is not just a large-scale statistical action, but a matter of truly nationwide, nationwide importance, since its results form the basis for determining the promising and current directions of the country's socio-economic development, and, consequently, the implementation of plans for further strengthening the Belarusian state and improve the well-being of our people.
Journal "Economics of Belarus", N1 2009
Different states apply various measures to stimulate the participation of citizens in the population census. In the United States, the census is carried out by mailing census questionnaires to all residents of the country, which are sent back after completion, and the census takers then visit the homes of residents whose questionnaires were not received.
The Czech Republic provides for a monetary penalty for evading participation in the census.
In Belarus, the main emphasis is on the consciousness of citizens. The law does not provide for the obligation of the population to participate in the census, however, it obliges not to interfere with its conduct.
Population of Belarus is a community of people permanently residing on the territory of the Republic. The concept of "population of Belarus" will be close in meaning - "the people of Belarus" and "Belarusian nation" (not to be confused with nationality).
If you try to immediately give a short, general characteristics of the population of the Republic of Belarus, it will be possible to say the following: the Belarusian nation is aging, with a high number of pensioners and a low birth rate, relatively educated, living mainly in cities, employed in the material production less than half. According to these relative signs, the inhabitants of Belarus differ little from the population of neighboring states.
Almost 100% literacy of the population older than 10 years is ensured in Belarus. Higher education have about 18% of citizens, another 26% - secondary special education.
The last population census in the Republic took place in 2010. It became the starting point for further statistical research. Earlier data were based to a large extent on the results of the Soviet period censuses and operational information. However, for the analysis and forecast of social changes, not absolute accuracy is more important (even public sources often give inconsistent data), but an understanding of general trends.
The largest regions of Belarus by population in 2019 are:
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Republic of Belarus |
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Regions and Minsk: |
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Brest |
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Vitebsk |
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Gomel |
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Grodno |
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Mogilevskaya |
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There are various approaches and methods for studying and classifying the population. Probably the most informative and adequate to the current state of affairs will be an analysis of the structure of society in connection with economic situation. Of course, the citizens of the Republic of Belarus have their own cultural characteristics, religious affiliation, political views, tastes, etc. However, economic aspects are still determining the behavior of modern Belarusians in the outside world. For the majority, enterprises and jobs remain the organizing principle.
Proceeding from this, we will consider, first of all, the age and sex structure of society, and its changes. Here, the ratio of workers and dependents, at the moment and in the future, is of particular importance. As a result, it will be possible to assess the ability to work and the degree of economic independence of society.
In the past half century, one could observe the following dynamics of changes in the demographic situation:
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Population |
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including: |
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Total aged: |
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younger than able-bodied (0-15) |
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able-bodied |
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older than able-bodied |
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Specific gravity in the total population, percent |
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urban |
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rural |
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natural increase, decline (-) population, thousand people |
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1) Until 2017, men aged 16-59 and women aged 16-54 were included in the working-age population. Starting from the beginning of 2018, men and women aged 16 to the generally established retirement age are included in the working-age population.
Statistical data in the distribution of urban and rural population looks like this:
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
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| Urban population | |||||
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Republic of Belarus |
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Regions and Minsk: |
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Brest |
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Vitebsk |
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Gomel |
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Grodno |
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Mogilevskaya |
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Republic of Belarus |
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Regions and Minsk: |
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Brest |
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Vitebsk |
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Gomel |
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Grodno |
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Mogilevskaya |
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It follows from this that in 2019 there was a general decrease in the population of Belarus compared to 2015 by 5.7 thousand people or 0.47%.
Three important social trends are clearly visible in the above statistics.
Over the past decades, the population has moved from countryside to the cities; the birth rate was declining; mortality increased. This combination of fertility and mortality, in the absence of wars and other cataclysms, means an increase in the number of elderly people in the general population. This, in turn, leads to the aging of the nation and gives rise to new problems, in particular.
One of these problems is increasingly referred to as the increase in the number of pensioners relative to the number of employees.
Based on studies in different states, several coefficients characterizing demographic situation from the point of view of the provision of society with labor resources:
The last two ratios make the economic outlook very bleak. It is obvious that every year some of the workers will move into the category of pensioners. However, there will be no one to take their place in the economic system.
Thus, the issue of increase will have to be considered not from the point of view of social justice, but as an inevitable result of the demographic trends of recent decades.
Another important characteristic of the social system is the distribution of income by population groups and regions of the country. The capital significantly outperforms the provinces in terms of wealth. The regions differ little from each other. A general pattern can be considered a slight decrease in income as the number of inhabitants in a settlement decreases.
It is impossible not to mention that real income citizens can significantly exceed the declared. There are several reasons for this, one of which is a significant (but not precisely defined) number of our compatriots working abroad, as a rule, without the required registration.
The next most important for economic system the classifier will be the distribution of the working population by type economic activity. According to the National Statistical Committee, the situation can be represented as follows:
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Employed in the economy - total |
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including: |
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agriculture, forestry and fisheries |
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industry |
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mining industry |
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manufacturing industry |
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supply of electricity, gas, steam, hot water |
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water supply; collection, treatment and disposal of waste, activities for the elimination of pollution |
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construction |
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wholesale and retail trade; car repair |
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transport activities, warehousing, postal |
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temporary accommodation and food services |
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information and communication |
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It is obvious that only the first three categories from those given in the table are engaged in the production of material goods. Almost the entire export potential of the country is concentrated in these industries. Looking at the situation from this point of view, we can conclude that 42% of economically active population or one and a half million workers "feed" the nine millionth republic. Such a ratio would be acceptable for a state with high labor productivity, or a powerful financial sector, or reserves of highly liquid natural resources.
However, for modern Belarus, the current situation is close to critical.
From November 5 to November 30, 2018, the Republic will host the first stage of the 2020 round of the population census of the Republic of Belarus in order to compile lists of houses and premises in them in cities, urban-type settlements and large rural settlements. Employees of organizations operating the housing stock and (or) providing housing and communal services are involved as registrars. Thus, 187 people were involved in the Gomel region, 181 in Minsk, 164 in Brest, 158 in Vitebsk, 151 in Mogilev, 116 in Grodno, and 44 in Minsk. Registrars survey all buildings, both existing and under construction, that are or may be inhabited by the population at the time of the October 2019 census, as well as non-residential buildings occupied by organizations.
The Republic of Belarus in terms of population occupies 92nd place in the world, 17th place among European countries,
6th place among the CIS countries. Population of the Republic of Belarus (as of January 1; thousand people)
At the beginning of 2016, 5 million 77 thousand women and 4 million 421 thousand men lived in the republic.
There were 1,149 women per 1,000 men, including 1,167 women in urban areas and 1,086 women in rural areas.
Inhabitants of the republic over the past 5 years has increased for 3.5 years and made in 2015 73.9 years old.
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Life expectancy |
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the entire population |
urban population |
rural population |
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Distribution of the population on the territory of Belarus
(at the beginning of 2016; thousand people)
The city of Minsk is the most numerous in terms of the number of inhabitants, it is home to 1 million 960 thousand people, or every fifth inhabitant of the republic (20.6%).
Among the regions, the Gomel region is the most populated, where almost every seventh inhabitant of the country lives.
Three quarters of the population of Belarus are city dwellers.
The global trend of urbanization is also characteristic of modern Belarus. Three quarters of the population of Belarus are city dwellers. At the beginning of this year, the urban population amounted to 7 million 370 thousand people.
About 70% of the urban population is concentrated in large cities with a population of 100,000 or more. This is the city of Minsk, all regional centers, as well as Bobruisk, Baranovichi, Borisov, Pinsk, Orsha, Mozyr, Soligorsk, Novopolotsk, Lida.
Average age of the population of Belarus
(at the beginning of 2016; years)
The average age of the population of Belarus, since 1990, has increased by 5 years and is 40.1 years (men - 37.3 years, women - 42.5 years).
The average age of a city dweller, since 1990, has increased by 6.8 years and amounted to 38.8 years. During this period, the villager matured by 3.2 years and his average age was 44.5 years.
Vitebsk region is the oldest region. The average age of the region's population is 41.5 years. The youngest region is Minsk, where the average age of the population is 38.3 years.
