The level of prices for goods and services is always of interest to Russians, because only very rich people can afford not to follow the cost of clothes, food, utilities and the like. Ordinary citizens, faced with new numbers on price tags, are forced to revise their budget, commensurate income with expenses. In the context of a protracted crisis, deflator indices are becoming an important measure of Russia's well-being, because they allow experts to judge the real level of income of citizens.
The recent, tax maneuver in the oil sector and the rapid pace will no doubt have a negative impact on the performance of the retail market. All these factors will affect not only the goods of the consumer group, but also the cost of fuel, electricity and freight at enterprises, and this will lead to an increase in the cost of all types of services and goods - from the already mentioned food products to real estate.
The deflator index will show what the purchasing power of the ruble will be
Forecasting price dynamics is an important stage in planning, so experts must calculate deflator indices. Ordinary citizens are also interested in this forecast - it will allow them to make a shopping plan, especially when it comes to large acquisitions. Let's figure out together what this price indicator can become in 2019!
talking plain language, the deflator index is a coefficient used to determine the final price of a certain set of goods and services. These indicators should be calculated for a couple of years ahead, as this allows the Ministry of Economic Development to develop measures to improve the social and economic life Russians, as well as to consider measures to curb negative financial processes. Thus, deflator indices are the basis for predicting prices for the next year.
In fact, economists compare prices for commodity groups in the current time period with basic price values. If we talk about the economic content of this indicator, then it resembles an index consumer prices– only the deflator is calculated not just for individual consumer goods, but for a full range of products from the commodity and service sectors, including those that were not previously presented on the market.
Having understood the specifics of the calculations of this indicator, one can notice its main drawback - deflators reflect the economic situation in such a way that the value of inflation turns out to be underestimated. According to independent experts, this is precisely why government economists are actively using deflators - after all, they need to show that life in the country is going well.
After determining the deflator indexes, experts reduce the calculations into a single forecast, taking into account the medium and long term. As a result, the Ministry of Economic Development publishes probable scenarios that take into account not only the manifestations of certain internal factors, but also the conditions of external markets. This helps the country's leadership to choose goals, the achievement of which will improve the standard of living in the state, as well as to develop scenarios for their implementation, taking into account the positive and negative forecasts.
The Ministry of Economic Development uses the deflator index when creating forecasts The forecast assumes the implementation of one of 3 scenarios. In Russia they are known as:
The forecasts take into account that: a) Russia will continue to be affected by sanctions from Western European states and the United States; b) the government of the Russian Federation is implementing a set of retaliatory anti-sanction measures; in) international economics is gradually stabilizing, and global crises and shock situations will bypass the world community. In this case:
This forecast is based on the following assumptions:
Taking into account the above theses, the following changes in the economy of the Russian Federation are possible:
Target calculations are based on the same set of assumptions as the base case economic development, however, his calculations include additional positive factors:
According to the target scenario, the growth of oil production will significantly strengthen the position of the Russian Federation This forecast assumes that financial system The Russian Federation will suffer from a number of crisis phenomena:
According to the most expected scenario (which, however, has not yet been adjusted for tax and social innovations, such as raising the retirement age, fiscal maneuver in oil industry and an increase in the excise tax on fuel in 2019), the Ministry of Economic Development is counting on the following figures:
Experts from the main bank Russian Federation say that oil prices, according to their calculations, will grow much stronger in 2019 than it is in the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development. According to Elvira Nabiullina, who is the head of the department, the average price of black gold will reach $55. per barrel. And since the ruble exchange rate has become less dependent on oil prices, the scale of the influence of this factor on a number of consumer prices will noticeably decrease.
Despite the new economic decisions in the field of social and economic policy(raising VAT to 20%, raising the retirement age to 63 for Russians and 65 for Russians), the Central Bank promises that inflation will not exceed 4%. However, Nabiullina noted that last news negatively affected the inflation expectations of ordinary Russians - according to polls, now the country is waiting for prices to rise up to 7.8% per year.
Independent experts believe that the joy of the authorities is premature: due to economic innovations, prices for all types of goods and services will begin to rise It should be noted that non-governmental experts refer to financial prospects 2019 with less optimism. Analysts believe that the government will not keep inflation at this level. 4% is an unattainable figure, and it will be good if in 2019 financial injections and tough monetary policy will allow fixing the purchasing power of the ruble at least at the level of 4.5%. Interested in details? Then check out the forecasts from various spheres of the economic life of the Russian Federation!
Assessing the growth in the welfare of the country's population is not an easy task. The incomes of citizens are growing, but at the same time prices are also rising. Which country boasts higher income growth - Russia or, say, Switzerland?
To answer this and many other questions, economists and statisticians use the so-called. The consumer price index is one of the most important economic indicators, which estimates the rate of inflation in the country for a certain period. It is sometimes referred to as the inflation index. Using this indicator in calculations, you can find out how much richer or poorer the inhabitants of a particular country or region actually became over a certain period of time.
In Russia, the CPI values for years, months and in the regional context are published on the official website of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation. Currently, statistics have been kept since 1991. This data can be used to estimate how much the final prices of goods from consumer basket in the current period differ from the cost of the same goods in an earlier (base) period.
CPI (English) consumer price Index, CPI) is calculated as the ratio of the cost of goods and services in billing period to the prices for the same goods and services in the base period, taking into account the share of these goods and services in the consumer basket, or according to the so-called. Laspeyres formula.
Usually, when calculating, the cost of the consumer basket in the annual period is taken as the base value, for example: in September 2015 - for September 2014, in October 2015 - for October 2014, in November 2015 - for November 2014. , etc. However, depending on the area of application, this indicator can also be calculated to the level of December last year and (for macroeconomic research and long-term planning) to the price level for years and even decades in the past.
The value, to some extent the inverse of the CPI, is called the GDP deflator, or the Pasche (Paasche) index. It is also used to assess the level of inflation and is defined as the ratio of the size of the GDP of the reference period in percent to the GDP of the base period. It's not the same thing. Unlike the inflation index, the deflator is based not on the cost of the consumer basket, but on GDP as a whole; the CPI takes into account the value of imported goods, but not the GDP deflator.
In addition, a third approach can also be applied - the Fisher formula, a cross between the CPI and the GDP deflator, but now it is rarely used (Wikipedia will help how the indicator is calculated using this complex formula).
The indicator calculated according to the Laspeyres formula shows how the cost of goods and services included in the consumer basket has changed in relation to the base period. If it is more than one (100%), then there is an increase in prices (inflation), if less - a decrease (deflation). So why is this indicator needed?
The CPI allows you to adjust the final income of the population for the period by the general price level and show how much they increased or fell real income population, i.e. have we become richer or poorer, and by how much. It influences interest rates and courses on stock market and the bond market, is used by the Ministry of Economic Development to index the salaries of state employees, pensions and benefits.
The forecast average annual inflation rate is taken into account when developing the budget for the next year. The productivity of labor in the economy is also measured taking into account the dynamics of the price level. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation uses the inflation rate forecast to calculate the average annual exchange rate against the ruble, so the CPI has a great influence on forex trading. How does this factor affect exchange rates? High inflation indicates a low purchasing power of the ruble; the higher the predicted CPI, the weaker the exchange rate of the national currency today.
The value of the indicator for the Russian Federation for 2017 was 112.9%. Based on reports in the context of the regions of the Russian Federation published by Federal Service state statistics on its website, the difference in inflation by region was insignificant.
Thus, in 2017 Moscow showed an increase in the cost of living at the level of 114.1%, in St. Petersburg the index increased compared to the previous year to 113.2%, in Nizhny Novgorod region- 112.2%, in Rostov - 112.1%, in Samara - 112.7%, in Chelyabinsk - 112.0%, in the Altai Territory - 112.4%, in the Krasnodar Territory - 112.7%. The Volgograd region showed an increase of 113.2%, Yaroslavl - 113.9%. The highest inflation was recorded in the Republic of Crimea - 27.6%,
In the context of product groups, the indicator also fluctuated slightly last year and amounted to:
Price growth in the first two months of 2017 was 1.6%, which means an average monthly increase of 0.8%, or 9.6% year on year. There are several resources on the Internet that offer a very convenient calculator for calculating the inflation index for different periods.
The consumer basket used by Rosstat to calculate the inflation rate, in contrast to the minimum basket, includes a wide range of goods and services (396 items in total), including such unusual ones as foreign tours and funeral services. The main problem in calculating the indicator is how to determine the basic set of products and services included in the consumer basket. How to calculate the value of an indicator for a product or service that did not exist yesterday? How to apply in calculations the data that a particular product or service in one social group or region occupies a large share of expenditures, and in another - a minimal one? The inflation index underestimates structural shifts in consumption (the effect of replacing expensive goods with cheap ones) and ignores variations in the cost of goods depending on their quality, so it is believed that real inflation is lower than the value of this indicator.
In the Law on federal budget for 2018, the inflation rate is set at 6.4%, and this is with average cost a barrel of oil around $50. It is already clear that the price of oil will be below this level, and inflation in Russia will be higher, which will affect the consumer price index. Representatives of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation believe that this figure will be around 7 percent by the end of the year.
The head of the Ministry of Economic Development A. Ulyukaev has already named different figures since the beginning of the year, and based on recent statements, the department expects price growth in 2018 to be less than 8%. The UN measures a possible increase in the cost of living in Russia at 10.5%. The actual value is likely to be in the region of the average of these forecasts.
According to Rosstat, according to the results of the first two months of 2018, the CPI in annual terms amounted to 109.8% in January, 108.1% in February, and 101.6% in February compared to December 2017. The dynamics of the indicator values gives reason to believe that the annual value will be in the region of 7.5 - 9%. However, the analysis of such a short horizon is unlikely to be useful in a practical sense, since too superficial data are accepted.
According to the forecast for 2016-2018, published by the government at the end of 2015, the final income of the population, adjusted for inflation in 2016, will continue to decline and will decrease by 0.7% compared to 2015. The reasons are the reduction in expenditures of budgets of all levels for wages and social benefits. However, the inflation rates included in this forecast are lower than the real ones, which means that the real incomes of the population are likely to decrease by several percent in 2018, which is directly related to how this will interact with the consumer price index.
February 2017 year-on-year inflation rate in Russia and some foreign countries made up:
Based on the data in the table, we can conclude that prices are stable in the medium term in the main economies of the world (China, the USA, the Eurozone countries), and in some places there is even deflation.
On the contrary, the highest rates of price growth are in countries that have experienced or are experiencing periods of political instability or falling energy prices (Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Russia).
Considering that the Minsk authorities are very likely to put some pressure on Belstat, the statistics for Belarus do not reflect the real state of affairs about the consumer price index.
Excerpt from "Scenario conditions, main parameters of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation and marginal levels of prices (tariffs) for the services of companies in the infrastructure sector for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019"
… The base case was developed based on moderate Urals price dynamics at $40/bbl. in 2016 - 2019.
Against the background of low consumer demand, inflation will slow down to 6.5% in 2016 against 12.9% in 2015, with a further slowdown in its growth to 4% by 2019.
During the entire forecast period, the policy of restrained growth of regulated tariffs in the infrastructure sector, especially for utilities, will continue. The annual increase in the cost of utilities will not exceed the inflation of the current year.
Gas The price of gas is one of the key factors determining the growth in electricity prices, since the share of gas in the final price of electricity in the forecast period will be approximately 30% with minor fluctuations from year to year. In 2016, gas price indexation for all categories of consumers will be 2% (in July). In the period 2017 - 2019 wholesale gas prices will be indexed: for all categories of consumers, excluding the population, by 2% annually; for the population - 3% annually. Indexation of tariffs for gas transportation through main gas pipelines will be carried out in the same amounts as for wholesale gas prices.
Power industry In 2016, the average annual growth in final electricity prices for all categories of consumers to previous year expected in the amount of 7.5-8.2%, or about 0.5 percent. points lower than previously forecast, due to lower demand from consumers, as well as changes in the structure of consumption in the real sector. According to preliminary estimates, in 2017, the final prices for electricity in the retail market will increase for all categories of consumers by 7.1% on average per year, in 2018 - by 5.4–5.9%, in 2019, an increase in electricity prices will be 5.1-5.6 percent. The growth of regulated tariffs of network organizations for consumers other than the population (others) on average for 2017 will be 6.3% (indexation in July by 5.0%), in 2018 - 4.5% (4.0%), in 2019 year - 4.0% (4.0 percent). At the same time, the amount of indexation of tariffs for individual network organizations can be differentiated in order to ensure their break-even. In order to reduce the volume of cross-subsidizing in the power grid complex, the indexation of tariffs of grid organizations for the population will be: in 2017 - 7.0%, in 2018 - 6.0%, in 2019 - 6.0 percent.
On the wholesale market price growth is forecasted: in 2017 - at the level of 7.5%, in 2018 - 5.5-6.5%, in 2019 - 5.5-6.5%. The increase in prices on the wholesale market exceeded the level of inflation in 2017 mainly due to the continued commissioning of new capacity under capacity supply agreements.
Department of Housing and Utilities The marginal indices of changes in payments by citizens for public utilities (excluding services for the removal and disposal of household waste included in utilities from 01/01/2017) will be: from July 2017 - 4.8%, from July 2018 - 4.3%, since July 2019 - 4.0 percent. Heat tariffs will be indexed from July 2017 by 4.1%, from July 2018 by 3.9% and from July 2019 by 3.7%. Tariffs for water supply in this period will be indexed by 6.2%, 6.0% and 4.7% respectively. The key factors in changing the cost of utilities are the indexation of gas prices and the increase in electricity prices, which, in turn, are the input costs of heat and water supply organizations.
By the end of 2016, the formation of a regulatory and legal framework for a phased transition to a new method of regulating the heat energy market based on the price limit (alternative boiler house) will be completed.
There are several indicators for measuring inflation, and the most common is the consumer price index, data on which is provided by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. It is calculated as a percentage and reflects the change in the average final price of the basic consumer basket over a certain period of time. The second, the so-called "gross domestic product deflator", which determines the change in prices for the year for all goods and services included in the calculation of GDP, has a number of disadvantages, for example, it does not take into account imported goods.
The undoubted advantage of the CPI is its ability to cover the most popular goods, including imported ones. On the other hand, this indicator has a number of disadvantages. Any change in the composition of the basic consumer basket makes the data for the past and updated periods incomparable. If you do not make such changes, then the selected basket will gradually lose its relevance.
An even more fundamental problem is the essential definition of the composition of the basic consumer basket. AT different countries and even in different regions of the same country, the same goods may have different values and significantly different prices. Changing the geographic sample for the base basket opens up a wide range of possibilities for manipulating the indicator. Another feature of consumer inflation is that it can be calculated different ways even based on the same sample. For example, the average annual index often differs significantly from the index calculated using the "end of period" method (the last quarter or December of the measured year to the last quarter or December of the previous year).
Taking into account all of the above, professional economists are quite skeptical about the officially published data of the consumer price index. The authorities tend to underestimate the real level of inflation for political reasons, using the methodological and technical nuances of calculating this indicator, which are obscure to most people.
In the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economic Development and central bank. Their methods are somewhat different. The Government of the Russian Federation regularly publishes a forecast economic situation, including consumer inflation, for the current and next years. This forecast usually contains three possible scenarios. Favorable, unfavorable, etc. "base", based on the continuation of current trends.
In the latest (July 2018) forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2019, the consumer price index is set at 4.3% according to the “baseline” scenario and the “end of period” calculation methodology. The previous forecast was 4.2%. The other two scenarios contain similar figures. Target, i.e. the government's desired inflation rate is set at 4%.
The actual achievement of these indicators, even according to the official calculation methodology, is a difficult task. Most of the country's population expects price growth in 2018 and 2019 at the level of 7-8% and even more. Among the factors accelerating inflation in Russia are:
However, the main risk for the Russian economy in general and consumer inflation in particular in 2019 remains dependence on global oil prices. Currently, they are kept for quite a long time. high level but are subject to sharp and sudden fluctuations. A significant drop in oil prices can lead to dire consequences. Among them, the shock devaluation of the ruble against major world currencies, the explosive growth in prices for imported goods, the growth of tariffs natural monopolies, the growing issue of unsecured money to cover public spending, as well as a significant increase in various taxes and fees.
The Ministry of Economic Development has clarified the wording of the inflation forecast for 2019 - from 4.3% to 5%.
