Ways to solve demographic problems
Demographic policy is a purposeful activity government agencies and other social institutions in the field of regulation of population reproduction processes. Includes a system of goals and means to achieve them. Demographic policy is integral part general socio-economic policy and at the same time it is an integral part of population policy. All three types of policies differ in the areas of regulation.
Social economic policy is aimed at regulating the entire set of internal conditions, processes and aspects of the life of society.
Population policy, being a direction of socio-economic policy, aims to manage the development of population as a broad process of creation, formation and development of a subject of social life. It covers:
1. impact on the reproduction of the population (it can be called demographic policy);
2. influence on the process of socialization of the younger generations (preparation for work, preschool education, general and special training, professional orientation, moral education, familiarization with the values of world culture, etc.;
3. regulation of a set of working conditions (setting boundaries and general scope of employment, regulation of the length of the working day and periods of work and rest, labor protection, regulation of professional and qualification growth and retraining of the workforce, etc.);
4. regulation of migration and the territorial structure of the population and the implementation of other measures on which the whole complex of work and leisure depends;
5. impact on general terms and Conditions life of all segments of the population (housing legislation, health and medical care policy, regulation of the scale, structure and direction of free time, etc.).
Demographic policy is an organic component of population policy. Objects population policy may be the population of the country as a whole or individual regions, socio-demographic groups, cohorts of the population, families of certain types or stages of the life cycle.
AT general view the goals of demographic policy are usually reduced to the formation in the long term of a desirable regime for the reproduction of the population, the preservation or change in trends in the dynamics of the size and structure of the population, fertility, mortality, family composition, resettlement, internal and external migration, quality characteristics of the population (that is, reaching the demographic optimum).
The main directions of demographic policy include: creating conditions for combining parenthood with active professional activity, reducing morbidity and mortality, increasing life expectancy, improving the quality characteristics of the population, regulating migration processes, urbanization and resettlement of the country, state assistance to families with children, social support for the disabled, the elderly and disabled, etc. These directions should be coordinated with such important areas of social policy as employment, income regulation, education and health, professional training, social Security.
Demographic policy measures can be grouped into three large groups:
1) economic measures: Paid holidays and various benefits for the birth of children; allowances for children depending on their number, age, type of family; loans, credits, tax and housing benefits, etc.;
2) administrative and legal: legislative acts regulating marriages, divorces, the situation of children in families, maintenance obligations, maternity and childhood protection, abortion and the use of contraceptives, social security for the disabled, employment conditions and working conditions of working women mothers, internal and external migration, etc.;
3) educational and propaganda measures designed to shape public opinion, norms and standards of demographic behavior, a certain demographic climate in society.
The principal feature of demographic policy is its impact on the dynamics demographic processes not directly, but indirectly, through human behavior, through decision-making in the field of marriage, family, childbirth, choice of profession, employment, place of residence, etc. Demographic policy measures affect both the formation demographic needs that determine the specifics of demographic behavior, and the creation of conditions for their implementation. Particular complexity of demographic policy as part of social management is given by the need to take into account and coordinate the interests of different levels: individual, family, group and public; local, regional and national; economic, socio-political, environmental and ethno-cultural; immediate, medium and long term.
The effectiveness of demographic policy is determined by the speed of achieving the set goals at the lowest possible cost to society and in compliance with the social norms in force in it. The conditions for the effectiveness of demographic policy are the complexity of implementation, focus on the long term, and the sustainability of the implementation of measures.
In international practice, as a tool for assessing the effectiveness of socio-economic programs, determining the priorities of both social and demographic policies, the so-called. Human Development Index is a statistical indicator developed within the framework of the United Nations Development Program.
The importance and significance of the global demographic problem today is essentially recognized by all states that have realized that the rapid growth of the world population, most of which is in developing countries, whose backward economy and undeveloped social sphere are not able to turn this growth for the benefit of their development; that the spread of dangerous diseases such as AIDS, whose powerful foci again fall on the poorest countries, leads to an increase in mortality; that uncontrolled migration and urbanization are turning from positive into negative phenomena; that the link between population development and nature is more fragile than previously thought; that the growth of armed conflicts and the arms race, especially in developing countries, lead to huge material costs, significantly impairing opportunities for economic and social development and thereby to solve population problems.
It is realized that the solution of all these problems is possible only with the joint efforts of the entire world community. The creation in 1969 within the framework of the United Nations of a special UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) and the holding of three World Population Conferences under its auspices contributed greatly. The Fund, already at the beginning of its activity, developed the UN program in the field of population, which covered more than 100 countries and included about 1,400 projects. Over the years, only financial aid fund for implementation national programs in the field of population exceeded 100 million dollars a year, 56.3 million dollars were allocated for international programs in 1998.
A special role belongs to the Foundation for the organization and holding of the World Population Conferences, held in 1974 in Bucharest, in 1984 in Mexico City and in 1994 in Cairo, at which acute population problems were considered, the most important policy documents in this area were adopted.
An important difference between these conferences and other scientific and practical forums was that they were held at a high governmental level, in contrast to previous conferences on population problems, at which experts spoke only on their own behalf.
One of these main documents was the World Population Action Plan adopted in Bucharest in 1997 for 20 years.
The plan emphasized that the basis for a real solution to population problems is, first of all, socio-economic transformations. In 1984, the second International Population Conference was held in Mexico City, in which the governments of 147 countries participated against the 136 countries that participated in the conference in 1974. It summed up the results of the World Plan of Action for 10 years in the field of population and adopted the Declaration on Population and Development, which confirmed the importance of the principles and goals of the Plan of Action adopted 10 years ago and made recommendations for its further implementation.
In 1994, Cairo hosted the third World Conference on Population and Development, which was attended by 179 states. The final document of the conference was adopted - the 20-year Program of Action in the field of population and development, consisting of 16 chapters, relating to almost all topical problems in the field of population.
The program emphasized that more and more states are realizing the need to expand international cooperation in population matters. The program examines the relationship between population, sustainable economic growth and sustainable development.
The Program calls for the development of policies and laws that provide better support for the family, which is the basic unit of society, and also contribute to its stability and take into account the diversity of its forms. The issues of fertility, mortality and population growth rates are considered. Issues of urbanization and migration. In particular, attention is drawn to the problems of the "outflow of the population" from rural areas and appropriate solutions are proposed for these and some other problems associated with resettlement in cities, with forced displacements of the population due to environmental degradation, the growth of armed conflicts.
Chapter XI of the Agenda, on Population, Development and Education, argues that "in the world women make up 75% of the illiterate" and that the global community has a special responsibility to ensure that "all children receive a better education and that they graduate primary school". It draws attention to the fact that there is a close and complex relationship between education, marriage age, fertility and mortality.
The Program considers the importance of developing and implementing government programs of action to address population and development issues.
Many states began to regulate population growth. The government of the most populous country, China, set out to limit the birth rate by banning families from having more than one child (with the exception of some autonomous regions of Tibet, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia). It was not easy, because children are loved in China, but the government was inexorable: families in which a second child appeared were fined, or even evicted to remote autonomous regions. As a result, annual population growth decreased from 2.8% to 1.0% and fell below the global average.
Populous India also decided to follow the Chinese path. Here the slogan was put forward: "One family - two children." But the Indians could not overcome the centuries-old tradition large family. Therefore, the population of India is rapidly approaching 1 billion, and by 2030 it will overtake China and come out on top in terms of numbers in the world.
The policy of state birth control was carried out by Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, but in Islamic countries, where the prestige of the head of the family is determined by the number of his sons, it was even more doomed to failure than in India. And countries such as Burma, Bhutan, Malaysia, Iraq, Libya and Singapore have decided to maintain the existing high population growth and even encourage it. The demographic policy had the least effectiveness in African countries. If in 1990 their population was 9% of the world, by 2020 it will reach 20%.
The fastest growing population is in Mozambique (4.6% per year) and Afghanistan (5.2% per year). There are 8-10 children for every healthy woman.
In some developed countries(France, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Hungary) a policy is being pursued to increase fertility: families with two or more children are provided with good benefits and various benefits.
In Russia, no official statements have been made regarding the goals of demographic policy. Government Russian Federation only outlined measures for studying the prospects for demographic development and solving urgent problems of the population. A policy of social protection of families with children is being pursued, and a system of family allowances is in place.
The essence of the demographic problem
The essence of the demographic problem is reflected in the current demographic situation:
The demographic problem is closely interconnected with other global problems:
Remark 1
The demographic problem can only be solved by joining the efforts of the entire world community. Among the first members of the Club of Rome informed the world community about the upcoming global demographic problems.
Ways to solve the problem:
To provide the population with the necessary material and agricultural products, it is necessary:
To solve the demographic problem, international programs have been developed and are being implemented.
The main questions included in the program:
Remark 2
For effective solution population problems, effective and high-quality socio-economic transformations are needed. The World Agenda points to the close relationship between sustainable economic growth, sustainable development and population.
Many countries have a policy to regulate population growth, aimed at its growth or decline:
The United Nations adopted the World Population Action Plan. At the same time, progressive forces proceed from the fact that family planning programs can help improve the reproduction of the population. But one is not enough. It must be accompanied by improved economic and social conditions people's lives.
The International Forum on Population in the 21st Century, held in November 1989, identified a number of population targets for the end of the 20th century, including a general decline in fertility rates, a reduction in early marriage and teenage pregnancy, increased use of contraceptives, and a wide range of other activities for the development of population control programs and activities in other areas that affect the interests of the population.
The most powerful and purposeful, albeit with great excesses, policy was pursued in China.
From 1949 to 1982, China doubled its population, giving the planet about one in five of its inhabitants. In 1995, 1211 million people lived in China. With 20% of the world's population, China has 7% of arable land, i.e. per capita in China there is 8 times less arable land than in. According to Chinese scientists, Agriculture countries, even with large investments, can feed a maximum of 1.6 billion people, and the country's population will approach this milestone by 2030.
Energy resources and water supplies are not keeping up with population growth: already now 236 large cities in China are experiencing water shortages. Economic activity with the traditional neglect of the environment, it threatens to almost double the pollution of the already muddy. Soil erosion will increase by a quarter, and the area of deserts will increase by 40%.
Against this background, the harshness and even cruelty of the all-China campaign to limit the birth rate, which began in 1970, is understandable. The policy of family planning is formulated in the position: "One child per family and stimulation of late marriages." This applies to every urban Han indigenous family (94% of the population). When a second child is born, the father pays a fine equal to three of his monthly salaries and may lose his job. Citizens living in rural areas, it is allowed to have a second child if the first child was a girl. This is due to the tradition of Confucianism, according to which only a boy is a full-fledged heir and continuer of the family. Sometimes parents abandoned their first female child or killed him in order to have a chance to "correct" their mistake. The campaign to limit the birth rate, for all its costs, in a purely arithmetic sense, gave results. From 1970 to 2000, 440 million people were not born in the country. Nevertheless, in 2001 the number reached 1280 million people.
According to a study conducted in 1975, families of landless peasants have an average of 4.4 children, and mothers are mostly illiterate (if a woman has completed primary school, then the average number of children in such a family is 2.7 children).
An experience different countries shows that if a woman's education lasts more than 7 years, i.e. if she receives a secondary education, then she has an average of 2.2 fewer children than a non-educated person. The age of marriage plays an important role in reducing the birth rate. Women without education marry much earlier. Therefore, in order to reduce the growth rate of the world's population, it is necessary to teach more than 600 million illiterate women to read, as well as to educate children who may be out of school.
Solving the problems of demographic development in Russia and abroadIn accordance with the results of statistical and mathematical calculations and forecasts, we will hypothesize that an increase in the level of GDP production, living standards, basic indicators of employment and other economic indicators capable of returning the demographic situation in Russia to that stage of the "demographic transition" at which it was interrupted in the early 1990s with the onset of the economic, social, and demographic crises. Thus, prospective tasks fall into two groups. The first group of tasks is relevant at the present time and is being solved at the stage of Russia's exit from the demographic crisis and return to the track of the "demographic transition". The second group of tasks is related to the distant future and the beginning of Russia's movement after the countries that have gone the most along the trajectory of the "demographic transition", especially in terms of reducing mortality and increasing life expectancy. Of course, moving behind these countries, Russia will inevitably face the threats of an aging population, balancing the birth rate at a relatively low level that does not ensure natural reproduction, and problems in the field of immigration.
It can be concluded that an increase in the birth rate and a decrease in mortality to levels close to those observed in the late 1980s may occur as a result of GDP growth and standard of living to the corresponding values. This means that the basis of demographic policy for the coming years is the growth of production, employment, incomes of the population, an increase in housing construction and its real affordability for the population. That is, demographic policy in a broad sense is all economic policy. Nevertheless, this does not mean that the state has the right to refrain from conducting a demographic policy in the narrow sense - solving specific problems of population reproduction by methods that have long been tested in France and other foreign countries and were partially used in our country until 1991.
First of all, it is necessary to strengthen the stimulation of the birth rate by increasing family benefits in connection with the birth and upbringing of children to levels comparable to living wage(based on each child of the corresponding age). The costs that may be imposed on the state budget in this case are incommensurable with the future damage from depopulation, if measures against this latter are not taken without delay. Of course, special programs for the development of health care, the improvement of working conditions, the fight against domestic injuries and other measures to combat mortality are also needed.
In addition, you need:
meeting the needs of families in pre-school education services;
affordability of housing for families with children;
stimulation of the birth rate - the provision of maternal (family) capital, flexibility of forms ..., a ban on the promotion of abortion, strengthening the family, improving material living conditions;
improving health, especially for young people;
reduction of mortality (fight against alcoholism, drug addiction);
increasing average life expectancy (combating mass diseases, raising well-being, improving health);
strive to change moral values, when the priority of family life becomes the need not for a water child, but for several;
in love with children;
it is necessary to raise the prestige of a large family.
In addition to the above measures, efforts to form attitudes towards self-preservation behavior and a healthy lifestyle of the population may be useful.
The strategic goals of the migration policy are based on the priorities, which are: maintaining the demographic, labor and defense potential, geopolitical balance, normalizing the proportions of resettlement, primarily the settlement of poorly developed and border territories, etc. Implementation of an effective policy in the field of migration and population regulation, in particular , involves the use of the migration potential of the CIS and Baltic countries in the interests of the demographic development of the Russian Federation, the effective protection of the rights of forced migrants and refugees throughout the country, and the promotion of the integration of forced migrants into Russian society.
It remains necessary to profile various categories of immigrants to Russia and move to a differentiated system of privileged attraction to Russia of compatriots (repatriates) from among the representatives of the indigenous peoples of the Russian Federation and countries that are in integration relations with it - currently Belarus - with the appropriate provision of their housing , work, all types of social benefits (similar to Germany and Israel), limited access, based on strict criteria, all other categories of foreign citizens (regardless of their origin from the CIS and Baltic countries or other countries). Among the criteria for admission of the last category of migrants to Russia may be family reunification, good grounds for obtaining political refugee status, the availability of capital for investment in Russian economy, the presence of scarce Russian market labor specialties and qualifications (similar to the United States and a number of other countries). It is also expedient to introduce quotas for the latter category of immigrants and pursue a tough policy of deportation of persons who are unreasonably (illegally) on the territory of the Russian Federation. When conducting migration policy, it should be borne in mind that the reception and decent accommodation of desirable (privileged) categories of immigrants should be massive and serve as a compensation for Russia's demographic losses (in particular, the negative natural increase), and improving the quality of its workforce as a result of the influx of qualified specialists and persons with a sufficiently high level of education.
In the mid 1970s. birth rates in the "old" and "new" world practically coincided. Changes in institutional control over the sphere of sexuality and childbearing were also unidirectional. The spearhead of youth unrest in the second half of the 1960s. on both sides of the Atlantic was not least directed against forms of such control unacceptable to the new generation. Although the "May Revolution" of 1968 in Paris ended, as it seemed then, with the defeat of the youth who rebelled against the "system", just a few years later, both in Europe and in the United States, a significant liberalization of family and reproductive legislation began. This happened partly because in the thermonuclear era the "demographic competition" of the great powers lost its military-political relevance, and partly because of the revision of state functions that had begun everywhere.
Legislative acts legalizing abortion were adopted: in England in 1967, Denmark and the USA - in 1973, Sweden - in 1974, France - 1975-1979, Germany - 1976. In Italy, at referendums in 1974 and 1978 most voters opposed the repeal of laws that allowed divorce and legalized abortion. Events formed such a coherent picture of the triumph of liberal values that it was appropriate to speak of the "end of history" a decade before F. Fukuyama wrote about it (in a broader context). Suddenly, this picture began to fall apart. There are three levels of fertility:
The highest, close to the level of simple reproduction - in the USA;
Relatively low - Western European;
Ultra-low - South European (most pronounced in Italy).
Almost simultaneously with the divergence of fertility trends, differences began to appear in the trends of institutional control over the sphere of sexuality and childbearing. As the attitude of European politicians and the public towards abortion, extramarital cohabitation and same-sex marriage became more and more liberal, conservative tendencies gained strength in the United States.
The "first sign" was the refusal in 1984 of the administration of R. Reagan - an implacable opponent of abortion - to finance foreign organizations that promote their implementation. In 2003, George W. Bush signed a decree banning abortions in late pregnancy, and a year later, an act to protect the unborn victims of violence. In February 2004, he also proposed an amendment to the US Constitution to remove the possibility of legal registration of same-sex marriages. These initiatives were justified by moral considerations and the fundamental importance of Christian values for the American nation.
In general, the differences in the attitude of Americans and Europeans towards religion are increasing more and more. Thus, recent comparative studies have shown that religion plays a very important role in the lives of 59% of US residents. This is much more than in the UK (33%), Italy (27%), Germany (21%), Russia (14%), France (11%). In American society, the positions of opponents of abortion are strengthening. If in the mid-1990s, judging by the polls of the Gallup Institute, 33% of Americans surveyed defined their position as pro - life (in defense of life, against abortion), and pro - choice (for freedom of choice, against the ban on abortion) - 56 %, in 2000 these figures were 45% and 47%, respectively. Changes in reproductive legislation initiated by the republican administration are supported by the vast majority of conservative Christian voters
Over the past decades, conservative demographic behaviors have continued to be widespread among the US population. The total fertility rate for non-Hispanic white women is 1.9, significantly higher than in the vast majority of European countries. By 2002, 40.4% of American women in this category aged 40-44 who were (or were previously) married had already given birth to two children, another 20.1% - three, and 8.7% - four or more children . Economically inactive (that is, not working and not looking for work or not ready to start one) 45% of American women aged 15 to 44 with children. Thus, one can speak of a widespread "conservative-demographic" syndrome in the United States, which includes interconnected conservative models of not only political and electoral, but also demographic behavior.
It is necessary to note a number of other factors that positively affect the birth rate in the United States. It's fast growing wages American women, which allowed many of them to give birth to children "without looking back" at not very reliable partners; the rapid growth of the child care market; rather generous subsidizing of the expenses of parents to pay for such services from federal funds. In addition, structural changes in the labor market have led to an increase in the number of part-time jobs (32% of working women aged 15 to 44 with children work in them). Finally, we should mention the rapid growth in the number of Hispanics (currently about 13% of all US residents), who are characterized by a slightly higher birth rate than the rest of the country's population (the values of the total fertility rate in 2000 were, respectively, 3.1 and 2.1).
Since the early 1980s began to diverge and fertility trends in countries Western Europe. If in the latter there was a stabilization of the total fertility rate at the level (average for the region) of 1.6-1.7 with rapid growth out-of-wedlock births, in Italy the total fertility rate fell to an all-time low (about 1.2), while the out-of-wedlock share grew much more slowly.
The roots of this phenomenon lie in the specific relations characteristic of Italy between such institutions as the state, church, family and marriage. The strength of family ties and family business have long compensated for the weakness and inefficiency of the state in Italy. Such an organization of society sharply increases the dependence of the individual on the family and imposes on the older members of the family special duties to the younger ones, because it is very difficult to find a worthy place in life without kindred patronage.
In Italy, marriage still has unconditional moral precedence over an extramarital union. The attitude towards the institution of marriage remains quite serious - in the age group of 20-24 years, this institution seems outdated only 11.6% of women and 15.3% of men. In addition, the divorce procedure is still quite complicated. As a result, people do not marry because it is too responsible, and do not form an extramarital union because it is reprehensible. If in Northern and Western Europe extramarital births make a significant contribution to the total number of births, then in the south of Europe this does not happen.
The marriage birth rate is also low. Italians still would like their families to have two or three children5. However, the norms of Italian familism (familismo), that is, nepotism, have a lowering effect on fertility, because they require parents to take zealous care for the education and professional career of their children, and these are very expensive enterprises. In addition, the labor market in Italy offers fewer flexible employment opportunities for women than in other developed countries. As a result, young people postpone marriage until the last opportunity, which adversely affects the level of marital fertility. Late marriage is also promoted by the centuries-old traditions of cohabitation of parents and children in a number of regions of Italy, the high cost of rental housing, the high, albeit declining, youth unemployment rate. Much of the above is also characteristic of Spain, where the birth rate is also noticeably lower than in Western Europe.
Mortality in countries with transition economy: differences in the depth and timing of the exit from the crisis.USSR and countries of Central and of Eastern Europe(CEE) since the mid-1960s. experienced stagnation or a decline in life expectancy. The transformational recession worsened the situation everywhere. In this regard, the UN report calls the loss of human lives associated with a decrease in the life expectancy of young and middle-aged men in a number of CEE countries (especially in Russia) the most difficult "human cost" of the transition from one socio-economic system to another. However, the magnitude of this decline and the subsequent dynamics of indicators in the east and west of the region under consideration were different.
The Czech Republic and Slovakia (in 1991), Poland (in 1992), Hungary (in 1994) were the first to recover from the decline in life expectancy, followed by Romania, Bulgaria and Moldova (respectively, in 1997, 1998 and 1999). gg.). In Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, a steady increase in life expectancy has not begun to date.
The depth of the life expectancy crisis in various countries of the region and the timing of the way out of it were determined by the nature of the interaction of institutions of various types and levels:
law enforcement and health institutions;
property rights;
permanent ways of thinking and acting that have become habit and custom.
Faster and with less losses out of the crisis - both socio-economic and demographic - came countries in which:
the nature of socio-economic transformations corresponded to the mentality of the majority of the population;
law enforcement and public health institutions were easier to reform;
the alcoholic subculture had a smaller role in economic, political and everyday life;
the standard of living before the transformational recession was relatively high;
there were favorable political and economic conditions for foreign investment.
