Most recently on the government website Russian Federation a plan of anti-crisis development of the country for 2018-2019 appeared. Within the framework of this document, steps are described that should be taken to ensure the qualitative development of the economic sector and social stability during a difficult foreign policy environment.
In 2016, within the framework of the adopted plan, it is planned to implement measures that would contribute to the activation of systemically important divisions, the balance of the labor market, the reduction of inflation, as well as the easing of pricing policy for low-income families.
For the coming months, the main areas of activity are:
In the presented plan there is a section "Activation economic growth”, which includes a reduction in business costs, measures to support non-commodity exports, various stabilization measures, as well as assistance to medium and small businesses.
The next section, titled "Support for sectors of the economy", provides for the division of state, federal and regional programs according to the priority and expediency of their implementation. Opportunities are being developed to receive investments for the development of a particular area of the economy. In addition, there are steps involved in housing construction, agriculture, transport, housing and communal services, as well as the fuel and energy complex.
In the “Ensuring Social Stability” section of the anti-crisis program, methods are being developed to change the structure of employment, reforms in the field of health care, social support for the population, as well as an increase in the supply of medicines and medicines. In addition, the plan provides for control and constant monitoring of the situation in the economic and social sector.
Despite the fact that most of the plan has already been approved, the authors do not consider it exhaustive and perfect, which makes it possible for further revision and additions.
Support Agriculture. According to the document, in 2016 the government will allocate about 50 billion rubles. for the support and development of agriculture. In addition, a significant cash injection is expected in the process of subsidizing discounts on the purchase of domestic agricultural machinery, as well as on the authorized capital and property contribution of enterprises.
Help for entrepreneurs. For the current year, it is planned to allocate 5 billion rubles to sponsor small industrial companies. It is noted that the procedure will be simplified, as a result of which the enterprise is recognized as a representative of small or medium-sized businesses. A decrease in all kinds of checks and FAS is expected, as well as a more loyal tax law, providing for "financial holidays" for all registered entrepreneurs. In some paragraphs of the anti-crisis plan, we are talking about the interaction of the authorities with representatives of small and medium-sized businesses.
Thus, the regions will have the opportunity to reduce the tax on small business from 6 to 1%. It is noteworthy that this tax is calculated according to a simplified scheme, which greatly helps novice entrepreneurs. In addition, the regions will be able to independently reduce the single tax rate from 15% to 7.5%.
Payments to the most vulnerable segments of the population. According to the proposed program, this year the families that are eligible to receive maternity capital, will be able to receive a lump sum compensation in the amount of 20 thousand rubles. As for the indexation of insurance pensions, in this direction from state budget 188 billion rubles have already been allocated. To combat unemployment, the government plans to allocate about 55 billion. The development of new drugs accounts for 16 billion rubles. budgetary funds (it is noteworthy that this category also includes compensations related to fluctuations in exchange rate when buying foreign medicines).
Support for export and import substitution. Authorized organizations and ministries have already been instructed to develop a plan to replace imported goods domestic counterparts. As in other areas, financial measures will be taken in this direction. Thus, about 3 billion rubles will be directed to subsidize the interest of Roseconombank, as well as to loans issued to support the export of modern equipment.
Additional capitalization of significant banking institutions. For these purposes, the Agency for social insurance ready to allocate 1 trillion rubles, another 250 billion will be taken from the Fund national welfare. It is noted that 300 billion will be spent on the maintenance of Vnesheconombank, another 200 billion will be allocated for various state guarantees on loans for large companies and enterprises.
Together with the document of the anti-crisis program, a decree appeared, which stated that for a certain period of time the Ministry economic development and the Ministry of Finance should develop a plan to create banking institution bad debts and accountable to the government. The creation of such a bank is necessary in order to increase the stability and efficiency of the banking system, as well as to improve the organization of real sectors of the economy.
Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia Alexei Moiseev said that as part of the anti-crisis plan, the creation of such an institution would prevent mass bankruptcy large enterprises, and not for the capitalization of banks, as many experts believe. However, the official could not answer the question about the financing of this initiative, which casts doubt on the further implementation of the described idea.
Reducing the expenditure of budgetary funds. In order to achieve a balanced budget, it is necessary to reduce public spending by at least 5% over the next three years. Such reductions are planned to be ensured by eliminating unnecessary costs (subsidies to representatives of the state apparatus will be significantly cut).
It is noted that the document in question was submitted by the head of the anti-crisis committee, Dmitry Medvedev. To implement the program, you will need:
It is expected that in the near future Medvedev will discuss these issues with fellow party members, and a little later the heads of some ministries will take part in the conversation. At the same time, Vladimir Putin, speaking about the drafting of an anti-crisis document, stressed that this project should primarily be based on the social component. This means that the problems of inflation, payments to social workers, preservation of international relations and government reserves. In addition, the head of state said that now there is an urgent need to review the allocation of public funds for certain structures. Earlier, there was information that about 1.375 trillion rubles would be needed to implement the provided program, part of this money would come from the state budget, and the rest would be funds from the NWF.
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Thus, the government's anti-crisis program has many positive aspects that are designed to help various segments of the population. The main thing is that nothing interferes with the implementation of this plan.
In 2016, the priority areas of activity of the Government of the Russian Federation are: fulfillment of social obligations, support for the standard of living and well-being of citizens of the Russian Federation, as well as stable economic development. Officials decided on measures to overcome the crisis, as well as on the amount of their funding from federal budget.
The Russian Government approved the Action Plan aimed at ensuring stable socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in 2016. The document has already been signed by Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. The Plan provides for the actions of all ministries and departments for 2016, as well as the amount of funding for the necessary anti-crisis measures from the federal budget. Officials are going to determine the volumes and sources of additional funding based on the results of work in the 1st quarter of 2016. The document has the form of a table, which consists of seven columns. Each of them defines:At the end of January, the Government of the Russian Federation presented an anti-crisis plan, which should ensure the financial and social stability of Russia in 2015 (). The document provides for seven main areas: support for import substitution, development of small and medium-sized businesses, attraction of investments, optimization budget spending, support for socially unprotected categories of citizens, ensuring the stability of the banking system and relieving tension in the labor market. Most of these measures are planned to be implemented in February-March of this year. Interestingly, some of them are retroactively included in the plan, as they were already implemented last year.
It is worth noting that the document, despite its important task, differs little from the standard plan for legislative activity, which is usually approved by the government for the current calendar year. In fact, it includes a set of economic initiatives that the Cabinet plans to implement, but does not contain their justification and assessment of the consequences. Some of the measures proposed by the government are rather declarative and abstract, but there are quite concrete and practical ones. We will analyze the main proposals of the government, as well as consider other important measures to support the economy, which many experts insist on, but which were not included in the plan.
Small and medium business
One of the few areas that is reflected in the plan and at the same time contains clear, understandable indicators is support for small and medium-sized businesses. Almost all planned activities are related to the reduction tax burden for this category of entrepreneurs.
Firstly, it is planned to expand the circle of enterprises that belong to the category of small and medium-sized enterprises by doubling the proceeds from the sale of goods (works, services). For micro-enterprises, they will grow from 60 million to 120 million rubles, for small enterprises - from 400 million to 800 million rubles, and for medium-sized enterprises - from 1 billion to 2 billion rubles. Accordingly, after the implementation of this measure on state support a wider range of organizations and individual entrepreneurs will be able to apply.
Secondly, the two-year law adopted at the end of last year is planned to be extended to all newly registered individual entrepreneurs providing industrial and domestic services. Recall that at the moment, for the application of this benefit, there are restrictions on the types of activities, volumes of revenue and the share of income by types of activities in respect of which zero rates were applied under the simplified tax system and SIT. The final decision to introduce such tax break accepts the region on its territory.
In addition, the government intends to significantly expand the powers of the regions to provide tax preferences to small and medium-sized businesses. The main disadvantage is that the regions will not be required to apply such concessions, but will only acquire the right to do so, and not all of them will take advantage of it. The reasons for refusal can be different: ranging from the prospect of a decrease in incomes of local and regional budgets, and ending with simply unwillingness to "bother". With this approach, support for small businesses throughout the country will be uneven and will largely depend on how lucky the entrepreneurs are with the region.
OPINION
Sergey Katyrin, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation:
“It seems to me extremely dangerous to try to shift the decisions of any indulgence for small businesses to the regional authorities. Many of our regions are quite seriously “indebted” [we are talking about budget loans provided to the constituent entities of the Russian Federation at the expense of the federal budget. – Ed.]. Naturally, it is very difficult in a situation where you cannot make ends meet, and also "cut off" part of your income, creating preferences for entrepreneurs. Not every region will do this. Therefore, it would be better to make such a decision at the federal level, so that support would really work in all regions of the Russian Federation. Otherwise, in regions where life is already so difficult, everything will become even more difficult for small businesses or remain at the same level, and regions that have the opportunity to do this and that are dynamically developing themselves will go forward.
One way or another, it is planned that the constituent entities of the Russian Federation will have the right to reduce rates on the simplified tax system with the object of taxation "income" from 6% to 1%, as well as maximum size potential annual income to be received by an individual entrepreneur (from 1 million to 500 thousand rubles), and UTII rates for certain types of activities (from 15% to 7.5%).
In addition, the government intends to implement the initiative to introduce patents for self-employed citizens, which failed in the State Duma in December last year (now it is positioned in paragraph 29 of the Plan as an anti-crisis measure). Recall that, according to the original idea, simultaneously with the acquisition of such a patent individual automatically acquires the status individual entrepreneur, and after the expiration of the patent is also removed from the register without any action on its part.
In addition, this time it is planned to provide for a special procedure for calculating and payment of personal income tax and insurance contributions of the self-employed to state non-budgetary funds - at the first attempt to implement the idea of patents for the self-employed, this was advocated by the business ombudsman Boris Titov and Public Chamber Russian Federation, but these proposals were not included in the final bill of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia.
The government will not ignore the issues state control and supervision of small businesses. Thus, it is planned to reduce the number of grounds on which the FAS Russia has the right to carry out unscheduled inspections of small businesses without the consent of the prosecutor's office. Along with this, they will not be subject to some prohibitions provided for by the antimonopoly legislation - a ban on the abuse of a dominant position, the conclusion of non-essential anti-competitive agreements.
Import substitution
Despite the fact that a lot has been said about import substitution lately at the highest level, and the implementation of this policy is presented as the main plus of the sanctions imposed on Russia, nothing specific is said in the plan on this topic.
The government intends to approve sectoral import substitution programs, establish the specifics of planning and procurement of imported equipment, works, services abroad and requirements for them. It is planned to transfer to Russian suppliers and manufacturers certain resources and technologies necessary to start production (which ones and to what extent is not specified). The system of state guarantees will also be improved to support exports. Exporters will either be released from the obligation to submit a document confirming the absence of prohibitions and restrictions on the goods, or they will make it as easy as possible to obtain it.
At the same time, the government does not give any specifics in terms of areas and categories of goods in respect of which it is planned to carry out import substitution. Thus, at the moment, by and large, it remains a beautiful slogan. The lack of a clear understanding of what needs to be replaced with what is also indicated by the President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation.
"Everyone is talking about import substitution. Name at least one person who would say: do I know exactly what can be replaced? Everyone wants to engage in import substitution, but no one understands what needs to be replaced. Those companies that use this import today should identify themselves and our problems, and then we will look for those who are able to produce components here, on Russian basis", he noted.
Along with the, industrial enterprises implementing import substitution projects, it is planned to provide subsidies from the federal budget for total amount 20 billion rubles The intended purpose of such payments is to compensate for part of the cost of paying interest on loans taken in Russian banks.
Social sphere
One of the most significant initiatives of the government in the social sphere is the opportunity to receive part of the maternity capital in cash, in the form of a lump sum payment in the amount of 20 thousand rubles. You can use them for any purpose, respectively. Recall, by general rule maternity capital funds are provided and spent only in non-cash form and strictly for improvement living conditions, receiving education by the child or for the formation of the funded part of the mother's pension (part 3 of article 7 federal law dated December 29, 2006 No. 256-FZ "").
In addition, the plan provides for and has already produced on February 1, 2015, insurance pensions at the level of consumer price growth in 2014 - by 11.4%. True, this indexation should take place every year precisely in relation to consumer prices and just on February 1 (part 10 of article 18 of the Federal Law of December 28, 2013 No. 400-FZ ""). So in this case, the government's attribution of its current obligation to the category of anti-crisis measures is not entirely correct.
Of the more abstract measures - improving the provision of medicines to citizens, including disabled people, participants in the Second World War, family members of war invalids and those who are entitled to receive state social assistance in the form of a set of social services. What exactly this improvement will consist of is unclear.
In addition, it is planned to issue social mortgage loans certain categories citizens on special conditions within the program "Housing for the Russian family". We are talking about the so-called economy class housing, costing up to 30 thousand rubles. for one sq. m. for low-income citizens in need of relocation from emergency housing, etc. The main conditions of this program are approved .
Banking
One of the main, but at the same time the most controversial measures to support the economy, provided for by the plan, is the allocation of funds to systemically important credit institutions in the amount of 1 trillion rubles (additional capitalization) (). Despite the fact that this measure is included in the anti-crisis plan, it, like many others, was developed at the end of 2014. Additional capitalization will be carried out through the state corporation Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) and will affect 27 banks.
These banks must, within three years, increase the total volume mortgage lending, lending to small and medium-sized businesses or organizations operating in the most important sectors of the economy, at least 1% per month. In addition, they will have to increase their own funds by 50% of the amount of money received from the DIA at the expense of their profits or shareholders' funds, as well as within three years not to increase the remuneration of management and the size of the payroll of other employees.
At the same time, many experts believe that this kind of support should have been distributed among a much wider range of credit institutions. Thus, the President of the Association of Russian Banks proposed to send the said amount to 150-200 banks, including those in the regions. According to him, the situation when only big players, does not contribute to the development of competition in the market and diversification Russian economy.
The President also spoke in favor of distributing 1 trillion rubles allocated for additional capitalization of banks, not only to large credit institutions, but also to "second-tier" banks and regional banks. According to him, many projects are being implemented in the regions through such banks, and if the funds do not reach them, it will complicate life very much. a large number enterprises. In addition, the head of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation believes that when distributing funds for additional capitalization of banks, it should be clearly defined how much of these funds will go to support small businesses in terms of providing access to credit resources.
A similar position regarding regional banks was also formulated by the Federation Council (Resolution of the Federation Council dated February 4, 2015 No. 27-SF "").
In addition, a targeted additional capitalization of banks in the amount of 250 billion rubles is also planned. for the implementation of infrastructure projects and support for Vnesheconombank in the amount of up to 300 billion rubles. (both measures will be carried out at the expense of the National Welfare Fund).
Another notable government initiative to support the economy through the banking sector is the creation of a bad debt bank (agency). This structure will buy out troubled assets of banks, debts of organizations. "This is a significant support for banks, but it is also very important for the clients themselves, so that the bank, cleared of this component, can work with clients, and clients are sure that the bank is not pulling "toxic" loans to the bottom. Under what conditions will the state buy we have yet to hear about these loans and how it will work with them,” Garegin Tosunyan commented on the initiative.
Of the other measures envisaged by the anti-crisis plan in banking, – increase in the volume of state guarantees for loans legal entities, including the implementation investment projects, and financing the restructuring of current debt (200 billion rubles are planned to be allocated for these purposes).
public procurement
A fairly large block of the plan addresses issues related to state and municipal orders, through which domestic enterprises will also be supported. According to Sergei Katyrin, orders government agencies and state-owned companies in times of crisis - this is one of the most serious sources of financing, including for small businesses.
The Government of the Russian Federation intends to prescribe the cases and procedure for granting a deferral of payment of penalties (fines, penalties) under government contracts and their cancellation. For contracts that expire this year, there will be a mechanism for revising the terms of their execution, prices and quantities of goods, works, services (clause 9 of the Plan).
In addition, customers will be able to set advance payments under individual contracts for the supply of goods, performance of work and provision of services - up to 80% of the contract amount (for a defense order - up to 100%) (). Now, basically, the advance payment is limited to 30% of the contract amount (). It also provides for the creation of a mechanism for concluding long-term government contracts, subject to the creation and development of production by the supplier in Russia ().
Beyond the plan
A number of reputable experts also propose other measures to support the Russian economy, including as a supplement to anti-crisis measures. One of the most popular proposals is to lower the Bank of Russia, which now stands at 15%. Recall that in mid-December last year, it was sharply increased by the Bank of Russia (from 10.5% to 17%) in mid-December, and in early February it was reduced to 15%.
According to Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Department economic theory and RANEPA policy Abel Aganbegyan, the key rate should be reduced to 8%, since, according to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, inflation in 2015 is planned in this volume. At the same time, he notes that with the current key rate, economic growth and development are impossible, and the recession will be very deep.
Garegin Tosunyan expressed a similar opinion: according to him, the problem of the key rate is not so much for the banking system as for borrowers. With the current key rate, lending is actually frozen, and its volumes have fallen significantly both in the consumer market segment and in the segment of commercial loans. According to the position of the head of the ARB, the reduction in the key rate should be significant, while a change of 1-2% will have no effect.
According to Sergey Katyrin, ideally, the key rate, taking into account Russian realities, should be 5%. At the current rate, he noted, enterprises will have difficulties in the process of implementing already launched projects, and new programs will not be able to be implemented without interest rate compensation from the state.
"For a real manufacturing business, this is a prohibitive rate. I think no one can take such loans with rare exceptions (for example, companies that have the opportunity to sell their products abroad, receive foreign currency, change it into rubles and repay such loans) For small and medium-sized businesses, this is definitely impossible," the expert explained.
Another measure that is often proposed, but not reflected in the plan, is the abolition of the import of food products from the EU countries into Russia. Many experts agree that these restrictions are driving domestic prices up. As Abel Aganbegyan noted, the lifting of retaliatory sanctions, firstly, will be a gesture of goodwill for the normalization of relations with the EU, and secondly, it will stop the rise in food prices and improve the supply of the population.
According to the academician, due to retaliatory measures in 2014, even in the conditions of a record harvest, food prices rose by 17%, while in 2013, when there were no sanctions, the price increase was 7%. At the same time, he is convinced that the removal of restrictions will not harm domestic producers.
“Foreign companies have to spend euros to produce food. However, they sell goods in Russia for rubles, and it is very difficult for them to recover their costs in euros at the current exchange rate. Therefore, imports have now decreased by 15% per month, but not because of sanctions , but mainly because of the euro exchange rate. Our producers are now actually protected more than any duty," he explained.
The financial ombudsman also spoke out for the abolition of restrictions on food imports from the EU. Pavel Medvedev. In his opinion, Russia's retaliatory measures are the main reason for the rise in food prices. However, the government and without it to stabilize food prices within two to three months.
Speaking about the possibility of supplementing the anti-crisis plan, the chairman of the State Duma Committee on economic policy, innovative development and entrepreneurship Igor Rudensky also noted that one of the main tasks is to reduce inflation, which in 2015 may reach 12-20%. At the same time, the scientific council under the committee advocated that the problem of inflation be dealt with not only by the Bank of Russia, but by a joint commission of the Government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia, simultaneously with the preparation of a program to reduce inflation.
OPINION
Abel Aganbegyan, Head of the Department of Economic Theory and Policy Russian Academy National economy and public service under the President of the Russian Federation:
"The Bank of Russia demonstrates that it is unable to cope with inflation. This is not its fault, not the low qualification of the staff, but an objective circumstance. Inflation depends on the Bank of Russia, roughly speaking, by 1/3. Inflation depends on the Government of the Russian Federation by 2/3: on how tariffs are raised, on how state monopolies behave, on antitrust law, from the budget and state off-budget funds. If we want to reduce inflation, we need a new approach - the creation and operation of a joint commission of the Government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia."
Garegin Tosunyan also agrees with this opinion, who notes that inflation in Russia is non-monetary in nature and largely depends on the tariffs of state monopolies controlled by the government, and not by the Bank of Russia.
OPINION
Garegin Tosunyan, President of the Association of Russian Banks:
"Inflation is linked to our tariff policy. State monopolies were created and exist in all countries in order to maintain low prices in violation of the conditions of competition. tariff rates so that its manufacturer is in a more profitable competitive environment. And we have the tariffs of state monopolies - just the main source of inflation, and we are surprised and all the time for some reason nod to the credit market and try to fight inflation using the monetary method, when our inflation is by no means of monetary origin. The level of monetization of Russia remains low. In this sense, what is required is not just a fight against the credit market and its contraction and contraction, but the stimulation of lending, the fight against high interest rates economic methods and with high tariffs by administrative methods, as well as economic diversification".
In general, the fact of the appearance of the plan is supported by almost all experts. However, the same cannot be said about its content, which in no way corresponds to the serious task of leading the Russian economy out of the crisis. The plan is missing a number of important points, and many of its provisions are amorphous. Experts agree that the plan is aimed at mitigating the crisis, and not at getting out of it and developing the Russian economy. However, the document is likely to be finalized. Both chambers of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation and, for example, the RSPP and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation have their own proposals on anti-crisis measures.
2014 may have become a turning point for Russia over the past 15 years. The fall in energy prices, the crisis in Ukraine, which caused a series of sanctions against Russia, led to a deterioration in the economic situation within the country. The devaluation of the ruble, the fall in GDP and the increased one can be called the main economic results of 2014.
Base forecast World Bank assumes an average oil price of $78/bbl in 2015 and $80/bbl in 2016. On this basis, according to the forecast, real GDP will contract by 0.7% in 2015, after which it will grow by 0.3% in 2016.
This situation demanded from the government of the Russian Federation specific measures to stabilize economic situation in the country, because The preventive measures of the Central Bank aimed at maintaining the ruble exchange rate did not bring significant success.
After long conversations and discussions, on January 28, the anti-crisis plan for 2015 was announced.
Here is a list of the main tasks of the anti-crisis program, posted on the Government website:
The plan itself contains 60 points. Russia must build new factories and collect record harvests. First of all, we need to support our really very important component of life - this is macroeconomic and social stability, create conditions for the development of industry, where possible, of course, agriculture, and engage in innovation. Ultimately, create conditions for sustainable economic growth ", Dmitry Medvedev concluded.
The government of the Russian Federation noted that " Gradual stabilization of world commodity markets and measures taken jointly with the Bank of Russia will help normalize the situation on foreign exchange market and create conditions for a significant reduction in nominal interest rates and increasing the availability of credit. "
Although the plan itself involves a reduction in the federal budget for most items by 10%, as well as a reduction in spending by 5% in the next 3 years, Siluanov spoke this way about this: " We set ourselves the task of making the budget balanced by 2017. This is a fundamental task. And let us be told budget rule. The budget must be adjusted to new goals! ". The cuts will not affect social obligations, the country's defense capability, support for agriculture and the fulfillment of Russia's international obligations, but will mainly relate to the reduction of spending on the bureaucracy.
It is planned to carry out structural reforms aimed at improving the work of industry and agriculture, reducing inflation, and returning to positive economic growth rates. It is necessary to balance the pension system and the system social benefits for the population, to stabilize tax system, to ensure the growth of small and medium-sized businesses and the influx of foreign investment.
In general, anti-crisis The program provides for the allocation of funds in the amount of 2.3 trillion. rubles. 550 billion of it is planned to be taken from the National Welfare Fund - for additional capitalization of Vnesheconombank (up to 300 billion) and banks (up to 250 billion). In addition, the document provides for additional capitalization of systemically important banks at the expense of funds in the amount of 1 trillion rubles provided to the Deposit Insurance Agency in 2014.
The concept of "anti-crisis measures" appeared relatively recently. Its emergence was due to the beginning of the reform of the economic sphere of Russia. Next, let's take a closer look at what an anti-crisis plan is. An example of a strategy will also be described in the article.
At a certain stage of economic development, it became obvious that the country was gradually entering a state of crisis. This required some action from the authorities. A crisis management plan was needed. It must have been radically different from economic regulation under conditions of stability. Getting out often involves radical action. This raises the question of the need to maintain this regime after the critical situation subsides. Of course, no matter how deep the crisis is, it will end one day.
As the practice of economic development of different foreign countries and features of formation industrial relations Crises act as an integral element of any system. The inevitability and inevitability of periods of ups and downs take place in any, even a very favorable state regime. At the same time, cyclical development is characteristic not only of the economic system, but also of other industries. In this regard, there should always be a plan of anti-crisis measures.
An anti-crisis action plan is a system in which mechanisms have been developed for monitoring and predicting a recession, analyzing the nature of its occurrence, signs, and probability. Within its framework, effective methods are provided for reducing the negative consequences of a critical situation and using the results to form a more sustainable development regime in the future.
The effectiveness of anti-crisis measures is associated with the search and selection best options way out of a critical situation. People can adapt to problems, act in accordance with the prevailing conditions. Mobilizing to get out of the crisis, a person uses the experience of the past millennia. The possibilities of management in a recession are also determined by the knowledge of the cyclical nature of the system development process. This, in turn, allows us to anticipate various problem situations and prepare for them.
In accordance with the developed strategy, based on the accumulated experience, available resources and predictive estimates, a scheme is drawn up. The anti-crisis program includes determining the duration, cost and final results of management. This essential component of consulting allows the customer to clearly present the existing problems and opportunities that will be associated with the regulation of the situation. The consultants, in turn, after discussing the main details, begin to develop a specific anti-crisis action plan.
Preliminary establishment of duration and final indicators reflects the main principle of anti-crisis management - the creation of a scheme from the end to the beginning. Drawing up an action plan is necessary not to quickly solve the problem and quickly overcome difficulties, but to achieve the goals set by the target date. As a rule, an anti-crisis action plan is drawn up in detail for the first quarter of the term. Forecasting for a longer period is considered inappropriate. This is due to the fact that the implementation of the program will subsequently be associated with various uncertainties. They can make an overly lengthy anti-crisis action plan seem bogus.
The anti-crisis action plan should contain detailed list related actions. For each, the following information must be provided:
For a period after the first quarter of the implementation of the plan, subsequent directions of action should be determined. At the completion of each of the steps listed above, a report should be prepared. It records the nature of the work done and the results obtained.
In the development and subsequent implementation of the anti-crisis program, it is necessary to involve all top managers and owners of the enterprise. In some cases, it is advisable to seek help from third-party specialists. As practice shows, the involvement of external consultants in times of crisis is one of the conditions for increasing the efficiency of program implementation. But, before proceeding with the preparation and implementation of the strategy, the manager must determine his own model of behavior. To do this, he needs to clearly understand the current situation, set time limits for decision-making. It is also important to have information about available resources that can be involved to overcome difficulties.
Professional work on organizing a way out of the crisis involves modeling and analyzing different options for action. The strategy in any problem situation defines three main directions:
1. Finding the best ways to increase income. This may be the mobilization of internal reserves:
Access to new trading platforms;
Increasing sales volumes;
Expansion of product range and so on.
It is also possible to increase income by selling assets that are not involved in the current production process in order to pay off debt.
2. Finding opportunities to reduce costs. This can be realized by reducing the fund wages and operating expenses, refusal to implement investment projects, and so on.
3. Reduction of the financial period. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to revise the policy of interaction with consumers, reduce delays, try to negotiate a change in terms with suppliers, change the dealer or adjust
As part of the strategy, a detailed network schedule should be developed. It should reflect the whole range of actions planned for implementation, precisely identify responsible persons, sources of material or financial resources and so on.
Any management provides for a successive change of stages, methods, operations, techniques and methods of influencing the object. This whole process has a natural content. It includes:
Management is based on the principles of rational use of resources, saving time, maximum efficiency. All this together forms the appropriate technology. It comes down to the selection and implementation of a certain sequence, a combination of actions when developing a solution. Its implementation is influenced by several factors. These are, in particular, lack of time, conflict of interests, complexity of interweaving problems, reduced controllability, high level risk and degree of uncertainty, imbalance of power, the impact of the external environment, the decline in competitiveness.
It is a set of actions carried out sequentially. These include prevention, warning and overcoming a critical situation. Anti-crisis technology - a scheme of vigorous activity, including a set of roles, methods, functions and its other elements.
One of the significant moments in a well-organized activity to overcome the crisis is the collection and analysis of primary information about the current situation and the evaluation of activities. These procedures can be performed according to different methods, which is determined by the specifics of the problems. at the same time, it is considered both within the framework of the recession and in the usual mode.
The anti-crisis consultant evaluates:
Let's consider the scheme of an exit from a critical situation developed at the state level. The Government of the Russian Federation has drawn up an anti-crisis plan for two years. During this period, the state intends to solve the problem of activating structural changes in the economic sphere of the country. In particular, stabilization of the work of backbone companies in the main industries is envisaged. Achieving balance in the labor market is a priority. In this regard, the state will strive to reduce inflation and improve the quality of life of low-income families.
RF for the current (2015) year includes:
The anti-crisis plan of the Government of the Russian Federation sets the task of reducing budget expenditures by 10%. For its implementation, the cost of maintaining state authorities will be reduced, and payment for high-comfort services will be reduced.
