The real estate market, unlike the stock market, is more than far from perfect in many respects, which determines the features of its study. On the one hand, analysts face difficulties, and sometimes the impossibility of correct and unambiguous formalization economic interconnections in the real estate market. On the other hand, it is obvious that there is no prospect of transferring analysis technologies used in other markets to the real estate market in their pure form, since these technologies are adapted for use in another market environment. In view of the foregoing, high-quality analytical work in the real estate market is presented in the highest degree a complex subject that requires an analyst, in addition to deep theoretical knowledge of real estate economics, constant practice and creative search in research that forms professional intuition.

Studying almost a century of history of the functioning of real estate markets in developed countries world, one can conclude that the lack of attention paid to the quality of analytical work is one of the main causes of most major crises in the real estate markets. A typical example is the crisis in the US real estate market in the late 80s and early 90s. According to experts, excessive and indiscriminate investment in new construction has led to a glut of the market and, accordingly, lack of market demand a large number projects for which loans were issued. This situation was based on unrealistic market expectations stemming from the wrong structure of incentives in the analysis, weak analysis methodology and incomplete data characterizing the current conditions. The structure of incentives that guided developers, appraisers and credit organizations was deformed by the interest of some to receive loans, others to justify obtaining a loan, and still others to allocate their funds. At the same time, all parties solved their problems at the expense of unjustifiably optimistic expectations.

The use of weak analysis methodology, expressed in inadequate assumptions and procedures, in interaction with insufficiently high-quality data from local markets, as a rule, resulted in unsound market research and, accordingly, investment decisions based on them. As a result of the crisis, credit organizations a stable syndrome of distrust in general to any projects and market research in particular has formed. And this, in turn, led to the understanding that real estate market analysts in their work should be guided by some general principles that are necessary (but not sufficient) to obtain accurate conclusions and results. On the other hand, there is an urgent need for understandable and easily identifiable criteria that determine the compliance of market research with the category of validity.

Considering the prospects for the development of the real estate market in Russia, we can assume that the absence of potential crises is an overly optimistic scenario. However, the consequences of such crises may be less significant if already today, at the stage of active market development, some general principles and

requirements for analytical studies, on the basis of which investment decisions will be made.

Not only the threat of crises, but also the current daily problems - increasing competition, reduced opportunities for short-term superprofits, the start of long-term and capital-intensive development projects commercial real estate, the entry of foreign investors into the market with high requirements for justifying decisions, etc. - objectively testify to the fact that the importance of qualitative analysis in the real estate markets of Russia will become increasingly important in the near future.

2.2 Real estate market research for justification purposes investment decisions.

The ultimate goal of any study of the type under consideration is to measure the ratio of supply and demand for a specific type of product in the real estate market at a specific (usually future) point in time.

The special characteristics of real estate as a commodity, along with the special place of real estate in market economy, form a fairly wide range of socio-economic information necessary for positioning this product on the market. Current and retrospective macroeconomic characteristics of the national and regional economy, socio-demographic indicators of the regional and local markets, parameters of the regional and local real estate markets - these are just the general areas in which it is necessary to conduct research.

Principle 1. Only information that can really determine the future productivity of the investment object should be selected for analysis.

When following this principle, the main difficulty for the analyst is the lack of standard rules or unambiguous recommendations on which to form the initial information. It is here that the analyst must show all his knowledge, professional intuition, creativity and practical experience. Moreover, it is here that the basis for the consistency of the study as a whole is laid.

principle 2. All current and prospective data on which the study is based should be used in quantifying the performance of the real estate investment project under consideration.

However, even carefully selected information that is directly related to the subject of assessment is, figuratively speaking, a “bunch of bricks” from which the analyst must lay down a solid foundation for analytical research according to all the rules of building art. And here you can not do without a strong solution that connects the individual elements into a single monolith.

Principle 3. All individual blocks of information selected to justify an investment decision should be interconnected by a clear logical scheme, ending with a forecast of future market conditions and the corresponding productivity of the project under consideration. The description of the logic circuit must be presented explicitly.

A positive perception by the customer of a report with the results of a market research, in which there is no logical scheme, can only be if:

a) the analyst takes advantage of the client's ignorance, or

b) the customer is initially favorable to the results.

On the other hand, the construction of a convincing and obvious logical scheme is a demonstration of the highest professional skill of the analyst.

Continuing the reasoning about the need to build a logical scheme of research, let's consider another principle that specifies the content of market analysis.

Principle 4. The content of market analysis should be reduced to a discussion of the factors that make up the main ratios for determining the performance of a commercial real estate object.

In accordance with this principle, the analyst in the course of the study must formulate the main relationships that determine the performance of the commercial facility, and then identify the hierarchy of parameters-arguments, the functions of which are the factors included in the main expression for performance.

Let's illustrate a practical approach to implementation this principle in the following simplified example.

Let the criterion for the performance of the project under consideration be the net operating income (NOI) in a specific period of the future. Then, by definition, the main expression for determining performance will have the following form:

NOI=PGI-V&L+M-FE-VE, where

PGI- potential gross income,
V&L- losses from underloading and non-payments.
M I- Other income.
FE- Fixed operating expenses
VE- variable operating expenses.

Consider the procedure for identifying the parameters that determine the expected values ​​of the main factors.

Potential Gross Revenue is determined by the value of the rental rate, which in turn is a function of the current rental rate, as well as trends in the ratio of market supply and demand over time.

property is a function of the cumulative market capacity, demand parameters, market absorption coefficient and the growth of the real estate absorption area. For projects, the projected load determines two indicators - the level of load and the time schedule for absorption by the market to this level.

Growth of real estate takeover area determined either by growth in the number of jobs (employment rate) or population growth. In turn, the expansion of the absorption area leads to the need for new real estate.

It should be noted that the growth of employment and population growth in one case can be directly related, for example, when new jobs are opened and the influx of new able-bodied people. In another case, population growth can grow without an increase in employment, for example, due to an increase in incoming pensioners or an increase in the birth rate. Qualitative analysis involves the use of several sources of information that provide historical trends and range growth projections, followed by data comparison. Segmentation of range growth is also mandatory, for example, according to age groups, gender, family size, etc. The absence of these positions in the study should be attributed to the inconsistent choice of data for use in the analysis.

Demand parameters determined by such specific indicators, as an area (office or production) per one workplace, spending on purchases per capita, number of apartments or houses per capita, etc. Using the demand parameters, the quantity is calculated necessary real estate, which corresponds to the growth of real estate consumption area. For example, by applying average spending per purchase to population growth, retail sales are predicted to increase, and thus the need for additional retail space. When analyzing the housing market, population growth segmented by age, income, size or family composition is converted into segmented demand. A sound analysis of demand parameters involves the study of historical trends, the current state and forecasting their likely value in the future. Moreover, a consistent analysis measures the change in demand not only due to new range gains, but also due to changes in the existing population and employment structure. For example, during economic upswings, growing companies require large areas, and changes demographic situation in the direction of increasing people of retirement age will require an appropriate type of housing.

It is easy to conclude that these bills cannot solve all the problems in the field of real estate valuation. So what other development paths can be proposed? First of all, it is necessary to create and adopt national standards for the valuation of real estate in the system of real civil and land-property relations, both mass and individual. Moreover, we need such standards that stand on a solid legal foundation, strictly and clearly describe all stages of the assessment and the corresponding procedures for assessment work, and are not departmental instructions invented by officials for their own convenience. At the same time, special attention should be paid to overcoming the stereotypes of the actual practice of evaluation, which have already been mentioned. Otherwise, the actual practice of evaluation may remain captive to the old misconceptions. In order to create a solid scientific foundation for real estate valuation standards and rules, to make their text a document that would help practicing appraisers significantly improve the level and quality of their daily work, it is necessary to clearly formulate the general principles for formalizing valuation activities. At the same time, it is important not only to give them a legal, economic, informational, organizational and methodological justification, but also to identify and generalize the real practical problems of Russian appraisers. Of course, the principles for structuring valuation standards should be based on the provisions of the current legislation and cover all aspects of valuation activities. This will also help to lay down at the level of the concept and structure of standards the idea of ​​their rational evolution as the current legislation improves and market institutions develop in the country. In turn, such structuring of standards and rules for real estate valuation will make it possible to make them not so much a “repressive” document, difficult to understand and more necessary for controlling officials than for practicing appraisers. The main task developers of standards become their organic entry into the system of training and retraining of personnel. In order to facilitate their use for a systematic increase in the level of training of appraisers, it is necessary to prepare detailed comments in advance for the main text of the standards, written according to certain canons, in a style that is not familiar to every practicing appraiser. This will not only facilitate the process of studying them, but also provide recommendations for solving practical problems that arise in any appraisal firm. That is, the preparation and adoption of standards and rules for appraisal in this form would also make it possible to create a system of continuous professional development of appraisers. It should be emphasized that standards and rules for real estate appraisal should become not only a “guiding document” for appraisers. They should be constructed in such a way as to ensure high manufacturability of practical work on assessment at a new level of requirements for its quality and reliability of results. Therefore, in parallel with work on the most important sections of standards and rules, research and development has been launched to create new information technologies and expert systems for practical implementation the most important standardized procedures for assessing real estate objects of any complexity. As a result of the study options structuring the work of appraisers to optimize the content of standards and rules for real estate appraisal, the following four most important stages are identified: the first stage is the formation of an appraisal task, a formalized description of the appraisal object and the preparation of a system of initial data for appraisal that have the necessary legal status, coordination of a detailed appraisal assignment; the second stage is a strict and scientifically substantiated formalization of the most important procedures for solving the assessment problem, control over the accumulation of errors in the process of logical analysis and calculations and obtaining the final result of the assessment; the third stage is the substantiation of the provisions of the most important structural sections of the assessment report according to the strict rules for its execution and the requirements for their content; the fourth stage is the examination of the results of the assessment according to clearly regulated procedures and the preparation of documentation based on its results. Each of these four stages is also structured according to certain types of work, the description of which is quite amenable to formalization. As a result, a description of 15-20 evaluation procedures is obtained, which includes approximately the same number of rather elementary operations of a logical and computational nature. The described system of structuring the most important stages and assessment procedures does not exhaust all areas of work on the scientific and methodological substantiation of assessment standards. It is not only about the disclosure of the features of the application international standards assessments taking into account the specifics of the national civil land, town planning and other related legislation. Of course, it is very important to generalize the real practical experience accumulated by Russian appraisers. But no less important is the disclosure of the essence of the main macroeconomic processes of real estate pricing in combination with the most important aspects of a specific economic activity subjects of land and property relations in the conditions of real law enforcement practice, mathematical models used in the assessment, as well as a description of modern assessment information technologies. Such standards should be tested in the largest Russian self-regulatory associations of appraisers and improved accordingly. And national standards should be adopted only after they reflect the real positive practical experience of Russian appraisers. Modern standards are clearly not enough, because they do not specifically affect real estate, but cover valuation activities in general. As for the problems associated with the "shadow" economy, here the legislation on valuation activities is indispensable. Only strengthened tax control measures will help.

residential property appraisal value

In general, the first chapter is devoted to a greater extent theoretical foundations, the basic categories associated with real estate valuation.

The second chapter of the work presents the results of the assessment of a real estate object from the standpoint of three approaches to determining market value: valuation in terms of costs (cost approach), valuation by direct comparison of sales (comparative approach), valuation in terms of expected or actual income (income approach).

When comparing the results of the assessment, it was found that all approaches give different results. Let us consider the main directions for improving the presented approaches to real estate valuation.

In modern appraisal practice, the technology of carrying out replacement cost calculations using UPVS collections is often used. The use of these collections began in 1997, when market information on real estate objects was practically absent, and the use of these collections was the only way to determine the "market value", mainly for the revaluation of fixed assets. In the last decade there have been Big changes in information support real estate market and budgeting. The Gosstroy of the Russian Federation has switched to a new estimate and regulatory framework. Decree of the Gosstroy of Russia No. 16 dated April 08, 2002 “On measures to complete the transition to a new estimated and regulatory base for pricing in construction” was canceled from 01/01/2003 regulations Gosstroy of the USSR, compiled at the price level provided for by the estimated and regulatory bases of 1991 and 1984. Instead, state elemental estimated norms (GESN) and federal unit rates(FER). Gosstroy of Russia approved and put into effect:

· GESNr-2001 "State elemental estimated norms for repair and construction work";

GESN-2001 "State elemental estimated norms for civil works";

GESNm-2001 "State elemental estimated norms for equipment installation"

HPES are designed to determine the composition and the need for resources necessary to fulfill construction work on objects, drawing up cost estimates (estimates) resource method, as well as for payments for work performed and write-offs of materials.

Gosstroy of Russia develops Federal unit prices (FER, FERr and FERm) only for the Moscow region. Further, the prices for the Moscow Region are transferred by Gosstroy to the Regional Centers for pricing in construction to link prices to regional conditions. After binding, the collections of prices are sent back to Gosstroy for their further approval. Currently, the process of developing a new regulatory framework has not yet been completed. Conducting real estate valuation based on the new regulatory framework is a very complex and time-consuming task that requires special knowledge and skills. In order for the new normative base entered into the practice of evaluation, it is necessary to carry out a set of works on the development of software and computer systems adapted to solving applied problems of real estate valuation.

Recently, regional centers for pricing in construction have begun to work actively, firms specializing in the provision of information services have appeared, for example, NPF Center for Information Technologies in Construction.

And only real estate appraisers still use long-outdated collections of the 70s of the last century and at the same time justify the “market value” of objects on their basis. Experienced appraisers have long understood the shortcomings of the use of UPVS collections, primarily related to the list of costs included in unit prices, average indexation, inconsistency in technologies, the ratio of the scope of work, etc.

So, in the collections of UPVS, the following cost items are taken into account:

· direct costs;

overhead costs;

Planned savings (profit);

general site costs for the allocation and development of the construction site;

cost of design and survey work;

costs associated with the production of work in the winter;

The cost of premium wages

the cost of maintaining the directorate of a standing enterprise;

· losses from the liquidation of temporary buildings and structures;

· the cost of transporting workers over a distance of more than 3 km. with absence public transport;

· the cost of paying employees bonuses for the mobile nature of work.

Experienced appraisers in their calculations use their own developments based on adjustments to analogues or consolidated estimates.

In the work of P.G. Grabovoi, S.P. Korostelev “Property valuation, Part I. Real estate valuation” on specific example it is shown that the results of calculations of the replacement cost of residential real estate according to the methodology of the UPVS differ significantly, several times, from market indicators.

However, in the majority, reviewed by the Expert Council Russian Society Appraisers' reports continue to assess the market value of real estate based on obsolete UPVS. Moreover, in order to somehow bring the results of these calculations closer to market indicators, a certain multiplying factor is introduced into them, which is called “entrepreneur's profit”. It is accepted absolutely arbitrarily, since it is not possible to remove this indicator from the market in modern conditions. It should be emphasized here that, in accordance with IVS-2003, “the application of market value requires the conclusion of a valuation solely on the basis of market data”. When applying the RSA, the appraiser determines unequivocally a non-market value, which should be reflected in the report.

In Russia, there is still no reliable information base on the aggregated basic indicators of the cost of construction, which are available from Western appraisers (following the example of WESSEXS, LAXTONS, R.S.MEANS).

Currently, the main recognized information base for real estate valuation are the developments of Co-Invest LLC. This firm quarterly publishes the bulletin "Price Indices in Construction", as well as the series "Appraiser's Handbook": " Industrial building", "Residential buildings", "Collections of purchasing power parities of currencies on national construction markets", "Handbook of the replacement cost of buildings and structures at the current price level", etc.

When using these publications, it must be remembered that most of their calculations are based on the normative base of the planned economy, indexed by certain price coefficients and, therefore, the final results of the assessment may have a significant error for the reasons stated above. When applying certain indices, it is necessary to carefully study the prerequisites for their calculation.

Recently published and announced as the first in the country, expected by appraisers, the Regional Guide to Construction Costs (RCC-2006). It provides cost indicators by type of construction work, aggregated cost indicators (CPI) and "information for assessing the required amount of investment in the express option." Essentially, the latter definition means estimated cost objects-analogues of modern buildings and structures. Part III of the RCC contains "analogue objects with technical and economic indicators of structural elements, analogous objects with technical and economic indicators for the object as a whole and a summary table of technical and economic indicators recommended for determining the cost of residential buildings and social and cultural facilities." Cost indicators are defined in prices as of 01.01.2006 for the "Moscow Region". The directory includes cost indicators for 18 types of modern residential buildings and 27 non-residential real estate. In RCC-2007 this list of objects has been significantly expanded.

The publication of RCC creates the conditions for its application in real estate and business valuation procedures. If in real estate appraisal it is possible to use part II of the handbook "Aggregated value indicators", then in the cost approach to business appraisal, it is possible to use part III "Objects-analogues of buildings and structures".

Thus, RCC collections should become the basic basis for real estate valuation. However, there are significant shortcomings of these collections. The main one is that they do not provide the initial data and the main assumptions of the obtained values ​​of the cost of analogues. So, it is not entirely clear what specific composition of the equipment is taken into account in the final indicators, what was included in the builder's other costs, etc. The joint work of estimators, analysts and appraisers in the direction of improving the RCC can lead to the creation of an information base that is so necessary for real estate appraisers.

The main direction in the development of appraisal activity is currently becoming the appraisal of the market value of real estate. This becomes possible due to the fact that our country is accumulating a database of the actual market value of real estate.

In order to simplify the process of appraisal of residential real estate in appraisal agencies, a regression model of the cost of an apartment can be used, which allows you to calculate the cost of a residential property depending on a number of its parameters.

An example of building such a model is given in the magazine "Real Estate" for December 2005. The model was built according to the price lists of several real estate companies that are engaged in the implementation of housing of various consumer characteristics in various districts of the city of Novosibirsk. For the analysis, information was collected on 450 apartments (150 options for each type of apartment - one-, two-, three-room) according to the following parameters:

apartment price,

the area in which the residence is located,

property type:

public housing,

Housing acquired under a privatization agreement,

Housing purchased by sale and purchase agreement,

* material of the building in which the apartment is located:

Panel, brick, monolith,

* house type:

Elite,

improved layout,

typical,

full size,

- "Khrushchev",

storey of the house,

the floor on which the apartment is located,

total area of ​​the apartment,

apartment living area,

kitchen area,

the presence of a balcony or loggia,

having a phone.

Let us consider in detail the procedure for building a model using the example of one-room apartments.

At the first stage of building the model, the matrix of correlation coefficients was analyzed in order to identify parameters that strongly depend on each other. The main task was to select such factors, the correlation coefficient for which would not exceed the value of 0.8. Based on the results of the analysis, a matrix of correlation coefficients was constructed, which takes into account 6 factors, that is, exactly half of those initially collected, since the remaining factors did not satisfy the condition imposed on the correlation coefficient.

Based on the collected data on the selected factors, the following regression model was built:

C \u003d -10.12 + 9.24 Stotal + 35.62 * x1 - 21.17 * x2 + 15.07 * x3 +

65 * x4 + 64.48 * x5 (3.1)

or in general:

C \u003d -a0 + asStotal + a1x1 + arr + a3x3 + a4x4 + a5x5 (3.2)

The following notation is used in the presented equation:

C - the price of an apartment with fixed parameters defined below,

Stot - the total area of ​​the apartment,

x1 is a dummy variable characterizing the area in which the apartment is located,

x2 is a dummy variable characterizing the material of the house where the apartment is located;

x3 is a variable that characterizes the number of storeys of the building in which the appraised apartment is located;

x4 is a dummy variable characterizing the floor on which the apartment is located;

x5 is a dummy variable characterizing the presence of a telephone in the apartment.

Statistical indicators for this model confirmed the significance of the results obtained.

Thus, the resulting model very well reflects the dependence average cost apartments from its parameters in the housing market of the city of Novosibirsk (excluding extreme options).

The presented models were put into practice in the real estate agencies of the city of Novosibirsk "Zhilfond" and "Amir - Real Estate", which have full-time employees for assessing the cost of apartments for sale, and also acting as collateral in loan agreements. It should be noted that experts highly appreciated the effectiveness of their application.

Second important problem that appraisers face is predicting the value of an apartment in the future. This problem becomes especially relevant when assessing the value of an apartment for mortgage purposes, since the sale of an apartment will take place in the future, and it is important to determine the rate of growth in the cost of an apartment for the period of a loan agreement.

The initial data for building a model of price dynamics in the secondary housing market were taken from the Real Estate magazines by quarters of the corresponding years. For each year, information was collected on 240 apartments - 80 for each type of apartment (one-, two-, three-room apartments). . The main purpose of building the model is to determine the model for changing the prices of real estate in the secondary market.

The structure of the collected data on apartments is shown in fig. 2.1, 2.2, 2.3.

Rice. 2.1. The structure of apartments considered when building the model, by type of housing

Rice. 2.2. The structure of apartments considered when building the model, by type of housing

Rice. 2.3. The structure of the apartments considered when building the model, by the type of material of the house

The temporal analysis of economic phenomena distinguishes different types evolutions.

1. Trend, trend or long-term movement. There is no strict definition of a trend, it is revealed intuitively. A trend corresponds to a slow change in some particular direction that persists over a long period of time.

2. Cycle, short-term component - fast quasi-periodic movement, in which there is an increase phase and a decrease phase.

3. Seasonal component - changes that occur regularly, as opposed to a cycle.

4. Random fluctuations, effects - chaotic movement of a relatively high frequency, which is more or less constant.

Some statistical series represent one or another type of evolution in its pure form, but most of them are a combination of all or individual components.

Theoretically, a series of price dynamics is a combination of trend, seasonal component and random fluctuations. On the present stage During the development of the real estate market, the seasonal component of the price of an apartment is disrupted, which is due to high rates of price growth and the investment attractiveness of the market in question. That is why special attention was paid to highlighting the trend in the dynamic series under consideration.

According to the series of dynamics of prices for apartments, the following model was built.

Polynomial of the second degree:

yi = a + bt2, (3.3)

where i - apartment type,

t - time period.

It should be noted that, in accordance with the criteria used in statistics, the correlation coefficient should be close to 1 (greater than 0.7), the significance factor F should be less than 0.03 (for the given model parameters).

Thus, the obtained models reflect well the dynamics of prices in the secondary housing market of the city of Novosibirsk.

According to the resulting model, the growth in the cost of one-room apartments should have been 22.0% in 2006, while the actual growth in cost was 24.3%.

According to this model, the growth in the cost of a two-room apartment in the city of Novosibirsk in 2006 was supposed to be 21.7%, while in fact the growth rate was 21.6%.

In accordance with the presented model, the increase in the cost three-room apartment in the city of Novosibirsk in 2006 was supposed to be 21.5%, but in fact the growth rate was 31.0%.

Substituting real cost data square meter apartments in the city of Novosibirsk in each quarter of 2006, it can be noted that this value falls within the boundaries of the confidence intervals built according to the model.

According to experts, the resulting model adequately describes the current situation in the real estate market at the moment. The forecast for growth in the cost of housing by the end of 2006 for certain types of apartments coincides with real data, since the growth of the market predicted by experts is 20-30%.

The appraiser is constantly faced with the problem of predicting the cost of apartments, this problem is especially acute when assessing for lending purposes. The correctness of the decision depends on the experience, qualifications of the specialist, as well as on the quality of the collected data on the market of the object being evaluated. The use of the proposed statistical models in the work of specialists will help improve the accuracy of forecasts, as well as the quality of residential real estate valuation.

After carrying out this research work, the following proposals for improving the residential real estate market have been identified. Often a large role in the formation of the cost of 1 square. m. of living space has a direct influence on the realtor buyer or seller. Dishonesty and the use of personal interests of employees of intermediary organizations leads to an artificial increase in prices for residential real estate. Thus, the secondary housing market often simply goes beyond the control of local governments, as it is under the jurisdiction of real estate companies. And only a small percentage of the proposed apartments in the secondary housing market under the influence of the city administration. Drawing a conclusion from the above, I would like to say that in the conditions of the financial crisis, in this respect, control is necessary from the side of local governments. This is due to the rather high demand for housing and thus a high percentage of profits from the resale of secondary housing is obtained by small real estate agencies. I would also like to draw the close attention of self-government bodies and its structural divisions to the growth in the cost of housing. Since the real estate market is in the process of recovering from the crisis and housing prices are starting to skyrocket due to high demand. When the conditions of auctions for the purchase of land plots for individual residential construction, should oust small companies from the market that seek to make high profits without proper fulfillment of the terms of contracts. Also, on the way to improving the real estate market in Omsk, it is necessary to improve the regulatory and legal framework. This will lead to a decrease in the rate of growth in prices for residential real estate and to equalize them with the real needs of the market.

On the way to a perfect real estate market, it is necessary to create services that maintain strict control over this type of documentation. The combination of all the above measures will help the real estate market in Omsk to get out of the crisis in the shortest possible time and improve the conditions for controlling the turnover of apartments in this market.

Conclusion

In this graduation project, a deep analysis of the current situation in the secondary housing market in Omsk was carried out. At the same time, the natural and ecological state of the city was studied, as well as social and economic factors that have a direct impact on the formation of secondary housing.

Also studied the capacity of the residential real estate market, supply and demand in the secondary market in the period 2009-2012.

A detailed analysis of the proposals in the secondary housing market was carried out. Possible methods for improving the residential real estate market in the conditions of the economic crisis have been developed. The prospects for the development of the residential real estate market are considered.

The relevance of the study is emphasized by the fact that the future of cities is largely associated with the development of the residential real estate market. Since the residential real estate market i.e. The housing market is one of the most important markets, it has a direct impact on the life of society, so the state of other components of society's life depends on its condition.

The purpose of the graduation project is fully realized. In accordance with the goal, the following tasks were solved:

The scientific and methodological provisions of the marketing of residential real estate in the city of Omsk were studied;

The legislative and regulatory framework for the development of marketing of residential real estate in cities is considered;

The main directions for improving the residential real estate market have been developed;

The conditions for ensuring life safety during evaluation work are considered;

The analysis of environmental decisions in the assessment of factors that pay attention to the nature of the city is carried out.

FEDERAL AGENCY FOR EDUCATION

Object №1	Object №2	Object №3		Object №4	Object №5
Selling price	65000		78000	56000		70000	54000
Ownership	complete		complete	complete		complete	complete
Conditions fi- funding	non-market, the price is overpriced by 3000		non-market, the price is overpriced by 8000	market		market	market
Terms of sale	market		market	market		market	market
Market conditions (time)	2 weeks		6 weeks		1 year	1 year	1 year
House area	120 sq.m.		145 sq.m.		120 sq.m.	145 sq.m.	120 sq.m.
Land area	10000 sq.m		12000 sq.m		10000 sq.m	12000 sq.m	10000 sq.m
Number of rooms	6		7		6	7	6
Number of bedrooms	3		3		3	3	3
Bath	1		1		1	1	1
Shower	1		1		1	1	1
Basement	not finished		not finished		not finished	not finished	finished
Garage	there is		there is		there is	there is	No

As can be seen from the initial data, the objects of comparison differ from those being assessed in terms of financing, time of sale and physical characteristics.

The amount of adjustment for financing conditions is determined by comparing the sale price of objects with market and non-market financing. In this case, loan payments are discounted at the market% rate. In our example, the adjustment values ​​are defined as 3000 for object No. 1 and 8000 for object No. 2.

Since all comparable properties have market terms of sale, no adjustment for terms of sale is required.

To adjust for market conditions (time of sale), it is necessary to select objects that differ only in this element. In our case, object No. 1 and No. 3 differ only in the terms of financing and the time of sale. Adjusting the selling price

object No. 1 on the terms of financing, you can determine the adjustment for the time of sale:

(62000 - 56000) / 156000 = 0.1.i.e. market prices will rise by 10% per year.

Thus, all comparable objects are brought into the same conditions for financing and sale time, which creates single base to make adjustments for other elements of comparison.

In a number of objects of comparison, differences in size are represented by a different number of rooms and different areas of the house and plot. Moreover, a plot of 12000 sq.m. corresponds to a house with an area of ​​145 sq.m. with 7 rooms and a plot of 10000sq.m. corresponds to a house with an area of ​​120 sq.m. with 6 rooms. Hence, the size adjustment from the comparison of objects No. 1 and No. 2 has the following form:

70000 – 62000 = 8000.

The adjustment for the presence of a garage is derived from a comparison of objects No. 3 and No. 5:

61600 – 59400 = 2200.

The adjustment for the completed basement is determined from a comparison of objects No. 2 and No. 4:

77000 – 70000 = 7000.

The results of the adjustments made are given in table number 2

Table number 2.

Object №1	Object №2	Object №3	Object №4	Object №5
Selling price	65000	78000	56000	70000	54000
Transfer of ownership veins	complete	complete	complete	complete	complete
Legal correction.	65000	78000	56000	70000	54000
Financing conditions.	not market	not market	not market	not market	market
Adjustment for the terms of the financers.	- 3000	- 8000	0	0	0
Adjusted Price	62000	70000	56000	70000	54000
Terms of a transaction	commercial	commercial	commercial	commercial	commercial
Adjustment on the terms of the deal	0	0	0	0	0
Market Adjusted Price	2 weeks	6 weeks	1 year	1 year	1 year
Market Adjustment	+10 %	+10 %	+10 %	+10 %	+10 %
Adjusted price	62000	70000	61600	77000	59400
Location	similar	similar	similar	similar	similar
The size	120sq.m.	145sq.m.	120sq.m.	145sq.m.	120sq.m.
Size adjustment	0	- 8000	0	- 8000	0
Garage	there is	there is	there is	there is	No
Correction for the presence of a garage	- 2200	- 2200	- 2200	- 2200	0
Completed basement	No	No	No	Yes	No
Basement adjustment	+ 7000	+ 7000	+ 7000	0	+ 7000
Adjusted price	66800	66800	66400	66800	66400
Total net correction	1800	11200	10400	3200	12400
Same in %	3	14	19	5	23
From the sale price, the total gross correction	11200	25200	14800	17200	12400
From sale price	19	32	26	25	23

For each object of comparison, an adjusted price was obtained. In accordance with the conditions of the problem, it is required, based on the data of adjusted sales prices, to derive the value of the market value.

The justification for deriving a single indicator of market value is to give each member of a series of adjusted sales prices a weighting factor, taking into account the degree of difference between the objects of comparison and the objects of assessment. At the same time, it should be taken into

attention to the range of sales price dispersion, the total % of adjustments taken in absolute terms, the total % of adjustments, defined as the difference between positive and negative adjustments, and any other data.

In this example, we have an almost very narrow ask price range of 66400 to 66800. However, the sell price with smaller adjustments is assigned a larger specific gravity- for object No. 5, the number of adjustments = 2. In addition, the amount of the total gross adjustment for object No. 5 is also almost the smallest. Therefore, the sale price of object No. 5 - 66400 was taken as the market value of the object of comparison.

3.2 Investment risks and real estate market statistics.

Real estate market statistics usually contain information on rental rates and profitability. For data comparability, the information refers only to first-class objects. It is believed that such facilities meet the highest requirements for location, equipment, communications, planning decisions etc., and rental rates are determined in the same standards for measuring and distributing costs between the owner and the tenant for maintenance, repairs, insurance, etc.

Information on rental rates is considered available. For its unification, only verification of the mentioned adequacy is required. Information about profitability indicators is more difficult to prepare. Since there are not so many purchase and sale transactions, they take into account previously completed transactions, integrate data on various objects, take into account time gaps, inflation and other processes. Profitability indicators also carry information about regional risks, and the expert principle prevails here. Therefore, statistics is one of the specializations in the real estate markets.

The revitalization of business and investment in the region is necessarily accompanied by revitalization in the office market, an increase in demand, occupancy and rental rates. At the same time, new construction and modernization of offices is stimulated, followed by service departments, shopping malls, leisure centers, etc. Such processes are typical for major centers businesses: the traditional financial capitals of America and the Old World, the booming capitals of Southeast Asia, China and India. An analysis of rental business statistics points to a number of interesting phenomena. For example:

Data on rental rates are significantly more dynamic than data on yields; the dynamics of rental rates is characterized by a certain fluctuation, reflecting (albeit with shifts) the general processes of ups and downs; changes in indicators of office and commercial real estate may not coincide in time and magnitude; improvements in the market situation are reflected in the growth of rates rent and, less often, in a decrease in profitability indicators (due to their noticeably less dynamism); an asymmetric picture also takes place when the market situation worsens;

The values ​​of profitability indicators are better (lower), the more reliable and stable regional economy, and social environment. The leaders of the stable rental business are London, Paris and Frankfurt, where the area of ​​change in profitability is in the area of ​​5-6%;

Changes in indicators for Eastern European capitals are less dynamic; this can be explained both by smaller volumes of markets, fewer transactions, and, apparently, by less interest of Western experts and business circles in these markets; profitability indicators for Eastern European capitals are stable - 2-3 times higher than those for Western capitals. And in the period after the August 1998 crisis, the profitability indicators in Moscow were 4 or more times worse. And this was not only due to a real fall in the value of real estate, but rather as a result of an expert assessment of the state of instability and increased business risks in the region;

Additional analytical information it is proposed to obtain using the calculated indicator of the specific capitalized value (UCS) - as an estimate of the cost of some average unit of the commercial area of ​​the leased object.

Such an assessment, along with a prompt response to fluctuations in rental rates, carries expert opinions about the success and risks of a business.

Initial information - rent statistics for European cities - can be found in Western publications (for example, in the monthly "EuroProperty"). We will choose as representative objects: Frankfurt, London and Paris - the centers of the most stable business, St. Petersburg, Prague and Warsaw - the centers transition economy with the most risky (in Europe) indicators of the rental business.

Rental office business.

The observation period 01.99-08.00 for the Western capitals showed in general the progress of the rental office business. We note the absolute stability of the yield for London (5.00-5.50%) and the improvement in the yield for Frankfurt (from 5.75 to 4.90-5.50%) and Paris (from 6.25-6.75 to 5.50-6.00%). For the Eastern European capitals, the same period is characterized by a deterioration in performance. An analysis of the calculated data of the UKS made it possible, in addition, to bring into line the external discrepancy in the logic of rental rates (their excess in St. Petersburg and Warsaw until mid-1999 over the rates in Paris and Frankfurt). As a result, low rates of UKS at high stakes rent does not yet allow optimistically expecting growth in investment.

Rental business.

The observation period 05.99-08.00 for the western capitals is characterized by a general deterioration in indicators (which is clearly seen with the help of the UKS). This suggests that there may be quite long periods of market activity, after which the sale of acquired retail space will not bring real income at all.

For Eastern European capitals, the observation period 05.99-08.00 is associated with the passage of a period of long-term stagnation and, possibly, the beginning of an exit from it (an improvement in the dynamics of indicators was noted, although the gap in the indicators of the UKS in comparison with Western capitals seems to be gigantic - almost by an order of magnitude). Therefore, for the time being, we should limit ourselves to the statement that there may be quite long periods in the retail space markets, when investments in the purchase of retail real estate in Eastern European capitals can bring a noticeable positive effect, including during periods of recession in Western markets. This can serve as a good argument when looking for ways to "inter-regional" diversification of the real estate portfolio.

Conclusion.

Completion of the period of formation of the real estate market is characterized by a transition from extensive to intensive development. It is obvious that in the near future the market will not see such a rapid growth in the number of transactions as in the first half of the 1990s. Moreover, during a certain period in the housing market, only the stabilization of the number of transactions is possible. It is also quite possible to increase the level of prices, especially in the secondary market. But at the same time, prices for elite housing not only did not decrease, but even increased, which indicates the prospects for new high-quality housing construction. The heads of firms also note the aggravation of competition in the market. Most of them are inclined to believe that if 1995 was characterized by a moderate degree of competition, then in 2001 it became high and will remain so.

Stabilization of the number of transactions and prices in the secondary housing market is a consequence, primarily of macroeconomic factors, the main of which is the preservation low level income of the majority of the population. Initial explosive growth demand in the market, as a result of the emergence of a layer of people with high incomes in the country, is now almost over. And today a new differentiation is taking place within this stratum – the singling out of a stratum with ultra-high incomes. Due to this differentiation, the demand for luxury housing has increased. However, in absolute terms The potential of this layer is very limited. A serious expansion of demand is possible either due to an increase in the level of income and the formation of a wide middle class capable of becoming the main supplier of buyers, or due to active stimulation of demand, both by the state and by the professional participants in the real estate market themselves. At the same time, some increase in demand in the future is quite possible under the influence of the inevitable release of money into the economy in the coming months to unravel the crisis of non-payments and in connection with the repayment of debts on wages and government debt. Part of this money will also come to the real estate market, but they will obviously not change the situation fundamentally, although the number of applications for purchase under the influence of this factor will rise by several points.

It can also be assumed that due to the inevitable and significant increase in tariffs for utilities it is quite possible to increase supply in the secondary housing market.

Moreover, if the surge in supply in the secondary market in 1991-1993. was caused by a rapid rise in prices, now sellers will proceed not so much from the possibility of a very significant increase in income through the sale of housing, but from the need to reduce the cost of maintaining it, and hence agree to lower prices. This, in turn, may also slightly increase demand, and hence the turnover of real estate firms.

At the same time, this stabilization will not remove the general problem - the residential real estate market in the foreseeable future will experience a shortage of demand, which can significantly reduce income from the traditional real estate firms' activities for the provision of services for the purchase and sale of real estate.

Under these conditions, it is necessary to significantly expand the range of services provided by the company to the client: bank settlements, transport services, notary services, the possibility of carrying out repair work, the provision of installment payments, etc., increased attention to advertising, possibly a reduction in commissions. All of these tools can play a significant role in attracting customers, but their possibilities are still limited. If for individual firms these techniques are able to provide the necessary volume of turnover, then, obviously, in general they will not solve the problem of developing the real estate business. Only the expansion of demand in the market will radically solve this problem, and in modern conditions this is possible only through the active participation of the state through the creation of a system of mortgage lending - the creation of federal and regional agencies for mortgage lending, supporting the secondary mortgage market, providing state guarantees to banks when they issue mortgage loans.

Consistent development of the real estate market in Russia naturally led to the next stage, characterized by an abrupt increase in the requirements for the quality of justification of investment decisions. Both abroad and in Russia, real estate market participants are coming to understand that the reliability of business plans, investment projects, etc., which are, in fact, a standard set of simple formulas, depends entirely on the validity of market research, the results of which are used in the formulas . In other words, the most significant and significant indicator of the viability of an investment project in the real estate market is the viability of the market research, on the basis of which this decision is made.

Bibliography:

1. Balabanov I.T. "Real Estate Economics", St. Petersburg 2000.

2. Goremykin V.A. Real Estate Economics: Textbook. - 2nd ed., revised. And extra. - M .: Publishing and bookselling center "Marketing", 2002 3. Kupchin A.N., Novikov B.D. real estate market: state and development trends. - Tutorial. M.: 1995.

4. Maksimov S.N. "Fundamentals entrepreneurial activity in the real estate market, St. Petersburg. 2000.