Expert opinions on development economic situation in Russia in 2018 are radically different. Optimists share the point of view of officials and count on the resumption of growth. Pessimists emphasize the vulnerability of the domestic economic model before external challenges, which could lead to a new period of turbulence.
The Russian economy is recovering from the crisis, which is reflected in the improvement of macroeconomic indicators. According to the forecasts of IMF experts, the economic situation in Russia in 2018 will continue positive trends. Domestic GDP growth will accelerate to 1.44%, while inflation will approach 4%. In addition, the unemployment rate will remain at 5.5%. Such estimates coincide with the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, where they expect the resumption of sustainable economic growth.
The head of the department, Maxim Oreshkin, expects GDP growth at the level of 1.5-1.7%. At the same time, the real incomes of the population will grow up to 2%, and the growth of investments will reach 2.2-3.9%. Despite the resumption of growth, Oreshkin notes a lag in growth rates Russian economy due to the lack of necessary reforms.
Experts also note other factors that will hinder the development domestic economy.
The head of the Center for Strategic Research, Alexei Kudrin, notes the factors that could worsen the economic situation in Russia in 2018:
In addition, experts note the outflow of capital, which will worsen the dynamics of the domestic economy in the medium term. In the first 4 months of 2017, this indicator reached $21 billion, which is twice the dynamics of the previous year.
Under such conditions, the deterioration of the external environment is fraught with new shocks for the domestic economic model. Without structural reforms, the Russian economy will not enter a sustainable growth trajectory.
Representatives of the Ministry of Finance note a number of reforms that will help improve the economic situation in 2018. The department's experts intend to reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on fluctuations in the oil market. In addition, the Ministry of Finance intends to improve financial system and review the administrative burden on business representatives.
The main goal of the Ministry of Finance is to ensure sustainable annual economic growth at the level of 3.0-3.5%. To do this, the department plans to change the current budget rules, which will help rid the economy of dependence on oil. Previously, the lion's share of proceeds from the export of energy resources was used to finance the expenditure side, which created the preconditions for economic crises. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance propose to concentrate these resources to accelerate economic growth.
In addition, for the sustainable growth of the Russian economy, it is necessary to modernize business administration and tax policy. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance plans to reduce the burden on conscientious market participants and increase tax collection. The main priority of the Ministry of Finance remains to reduce the volume of the shadow economy, which will significantly increase budget revenues.
Officials expect to significantly improve the investment climate, which will provide the economy with the necessary resources for development. Also, the department is concerned about the lack of efficiency of public administration, which leads to additional financial losses.
Despite the recovery of positive dynamics, experts do not exclude the resumption of the crisis. The pessimistic outlook for 2018 suggests a significant deterioration in the economic situation.
The main factor that could lead to the implementation of the pessimistic scenario is a sharp decline in oil prices. Experts allow the collapse of quotations to $40 per barrel, which will be a new shock for the domestic economy.
Despite the improvement in macroeconomic indicators, the economic situation remains extremely vulnerable. The authorities have not created the foundation for a new economic model, which could lead to a repetition of the crisis. Moreover, in 2015-2016 officials used most of the financial reserves, which will significantly limit the government's ability to reduce the next price of "black gold".
Future economic growth depends on the extension of conditions to reduce oil production, analysts stress. In addition, the intention of China and India to increase the use of electric vehicles leads to a decrease in oil demand, which will hinder the recovery of the balance in the market. Under such conditions, the cost of a barrel may fall to $40 and remain at this level throughout 2018.
The economic situation in 2018 will remain positive. GDP growth will reach 1.5%, the government is sure, and inflation will slow down to 4%. To accelerate economic growth, it is necessary to implement structural reforms, which will reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on external factors.
A new collapse in oil prices could trigger a pessimistic scenario that suggests new period crisis.
Continuation of the analysis of the socio-economic situation in Russia over the past two decades, as in the previous part, is illustrated by abundant statistical material and leads to no less sad conclusions.
Mikhail Bocharov
Socio-economic position Russian Federation in 1990-2006
"Economic Strategies", No. 05-06-2007, pp. 130-139
The ending.
See the beginning in No. 4/2007.
Economic situation in the Russian Federation
Russia, as the legal successor of the Soviet Union, in the process of transition to a market economy has lost many of the previously developed advantages and prerequisites. Its production potential has sharply declined due to criminal methods of privatization, financing problems, and also due to the accumulating physical and moral depreciation of fixed assets in almost all sectors of production. According to the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation, about 30% of the country's fixed assets have been in operation for more than 40 years, and over 90% of production equipment for more than 15 years. As for the technical level, only 15% of fixed assets in Russia correspond to the world level, about a third are subject to immediate replacement, and more than 55% require modernization in the very near future. A sharp reduction in funding for fundamental and applied research has bled the scientific support of the country's economic development.
"The country's total economic losses during the years of Yeltsin's reforms (1992-2000) were 2.5 times higher than the losses of the USSR during the Great Patriotic War. In terms of domestic production, i.e., in terms of the real wealth of the population, Russia has slid to the level of 1960 On the eve of the reforms, the RSFSR was inferior in terms of gross product to the United States by 4 times, Japan by 2 times, and by 2000 Russia began to yield to the United States by 17 times, Japan by 5 times "(1).
We live almost exclusively on the material funds created during the Soviet era, which we criticize and condemn on a daily basis. Where did hundreds of billionaires and thousands of millionaires come from and how did they appear in Russia? There is, of course, an answer to this question.
The main result of 2005 is that the rich have become even richer. The combined wealth of the 100 richest people in Russia increased by $107 billion to $248 billion. The number of billionaires was 44, 14 more than a year earlier. In 2006, this growth continued (there were 53 billionaires).
State Duma deputy O.G. Dmitrieva, in an interview with the Russian Federation Today magazine, said: “The team leading the socio-economic bloc, Gref, Kudrin and Zurabov, can hardly change anything. Its mistakes are already very costly for the country. Their “cost” is 1.5 trillion rubles. This is more than our spending on national defense, security, social policy combined. Individual shortcomings can be corrected. And here there are no mistakes, but the wrong concept of the economic course, blatant incompetence in the conditions of absolute irresponsibility of the government. It makes one mistake for the other is not responsible for anything" (2).
Real participation Russian state in the country's economy is decreasing every year. President of the All-Russian Organization for Quality, Chairman of the State Standard of Russia, Professor G.P. Voronin in December 2005 cited the following figures: "The share state property in the US GDP - 32%, Japan - 35%, England - 40%, Canada - 43%, Germany - 48%, Italy - 51%, Sweden - 62%, China - 66%, in Russia - 10%. "China over the same 15 years of reforms, he achieved tremendous success in developing the economy.
If in Russia the main reason GDP growth If the situation in oil and gas prices is favorable for us, then in China the increase in GDP is due to the development of all industries National economy including the rapid growth of small and medium-sized businesses.
Even more high performance Economic development over the past 15 years has been demonstrated by Malaysia, where, by the way, oil and gas are under the absolute control of the state. For the period from 1988 to 1996 country's GDP increased by almost 3.5 times, per capita income increased by 2.8 times. Over a decade or so, the production of the electrical and electronic industries has increased 32 times, rubber products - 13 times, chemical industry- 10 times, the production of petroleum products and metal - 7 times, textiles and ready-made clothing - 6 times, processed wood - 5 times, etc.
If in 1957 the population of Malaysia was 4.7 million people, then in 1995 it was already 21 million, and by 2004 it had increased to 25 million people. Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad believed that in order to develop the entire territory of the country and create a capacious domestic market, it is necessary to have sufficiently high population growth rates (at least 2.6% per year) so that by 2095 its number would reach70 million people. Already today, the average life expectancy for men is 72 years, and for women - 75 years. State spending on social purposes is constantly growing. So, in 1979 they accounted for 19.66%, and in 1996 - already 25.1% of all state expenditures. At the same time, spending on education accounted for 70% of all social spending or 20% of all current spending. In his book The Way Forward, Mohamad notes in particular: “There are no unemployed people in Malaysia today. This has helped to end poverty. If we take into account the minimal assistance provided by the government and assistance from families, then there is no poverty in the country. in general. And it is absolutely certain that in Malaysia no one is starving, no one is forced to rummage through dustbins, as is the case in many other countries" (3).
The revival of the Russian economy is impossible without massive capital investments. There are large internal financial sources for this, the level of savings in Russia is quite high, but quite a lot of money (tens of billions of dollars) is annually exported abroad.
According to the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation A.L. Kudrin, uttered in April 2006, increase budget spending in 2007 it is impossible, because if we subtract from the budget revenues from extremely high oil prices, the deficit for the first half of 2006 alone will be 4.7%. But from funds mass media, and also from the mouths of members of the Government of the Russian Federation, we hear something completely different every day: that the annual growth of the country's economy is 7%, that the economic situation is very favorable, and so on and so forth.
On the largest scale, the export of capital from us is by no means carried out by Abramovich and billionaires and millionaires like him, but by Kudrin and Gref. They are the main organizers of the leakage of Russian money. Even the funds that they took away from the ultra-high prices in the oil and gas sectors of the Russian economy go to the Stabilization Fund, and then invest in foreign securities. Those. Today, the state withdraws money from the country's economy and invests it in the economy of other countries, primarily the United States.
US President George W. Bush submitted a draft budget for 2007 to Congress ( fiscal year starts on October 1, 2006) with a deficit of $354 billion. The United States, realizing that the development of the state is necessary, plans to increase domestic debt, and additionally takes colossal financial resources. (In addition to the funds of the Stabilization Fund, Russia also buys American securities at the expense of the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves.)
"Russia is sitting on a chest of gold, which is last years already overflowing thanks to the export of the country's most important resources - oil and gas. The recent surge in energy prices has allowed Russia to increase its foreign exchange reserves so much that this former communist country can live quite tolerably, even richly. Analysts believe that now is the perfect time for Russia to finally break away from almost total dependence on oil and gas exports through diversification - from improving the transport system to supporting small businesses, since after the collapse of the ruble that caused the financial crisis in 1998 ., the economy has already made significant progress" (4).
"In a record oil revenue President Putin is missing out on an opportunity to diversify the economy and implement much-needed structural reforms. Putin's position is very strong, so the fact that he is not implementing reforms to increase the country's growth potential is sad and disappointing" (5).
In foreign and partly in Russian media, they speak and write about Russia as a state with an inefficient and incompetent government that has led the country to a dead end. Some publications and speeches directly point to a systemic crisis of power: ideological, intellectual, personnel, organizational, etc. However, it is necessary to return to the figures published by the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation, indicating economic development states over the past 16 years (see Table 1).
Table 1. Some results of economic reforms in Russian industry in 1991–2006
As can be seen from the table, many sectors of the national economy have ceased to exist during the years of "reforms". Of course, the presented table is only a small illustration of the state of affairs in the economy. The range of manufactured goods, of course, is much wider and their listing will take more than a dozen pages, but it is necessary to say special mention about some industries. So, you can briefly state the state of affairs in the aircraft industry.
In the middle of 2006, at one of the meetings of the Government of the Russian Federation, an opinion was voiced: "The Russian aviation industry no longer exists." Of course, it was a cry from the soul of a specialist in the hope that he would be heard. Nevertheless, the situation in the aviation industry is really catastrophic. In September 2006, speaking at a meeting of the State Duma Committee on Energy, Transport and Communications, Deputy Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation S.A. Aristov made a statement that can only partly be considered sensational. He said that at present there is a real threat of a landslide reduction in air traffic, since the aircraft that have exhausted their resources are about to be taken out of service. And such liners, according to the deputy minister, are about 70%.
According to a high-ranking official of the Government, over the past 15 years, Russian airlines have received only 36 domestic aircraft of classes I-III. It is for this reason that companies operate foreign cars of the secondary market. However, not only because of this. The same new TU-154 has one price, and bought somewhere in China - a completely different one. China is prudently getting rid of obsolete aircraft that are no longer allowed into Europe due to rattling engines. But even imported aircraft are far from being a panacea: foreign aircraft are not well adapted to our conditions. So, for example, during the certification of one of the Boeing models, the landing resource was reduced due to our "magnificent" runways. The deputy minister also spoke about stripes. According to him, runway wear is now up to 80%. And very little money is allocated for repairs. Aristov said that during the period from 2002 to 2006, 20.9 billion rubles were received for the repair of runways, while from 25 to 30 billion are required annually for 5-7 years.
From the book "Aviation in Russia": "In 1914-1918, Russia produced 5565 aircraft. Already at that time there were 12 aircraft manufacturing enterprises in Russia" (6). Until 1989, more than 1,500 winged vehicles were produced annually in the USSR. From a speech at a meeting of the FAVT board on March 6 this year. the then head of the Federal Air Transport Agency A.A. Yurchika: in 2005, 17 aircraft left the stocks of all aircraft manufacturing enterprises in Russia. Terrible growth compared to 2004 - 6 aircraft. Approximately the same situation in Russian shipbuilding. In Russia, 3/4 of the borders are maritime. What domestic shipbuilding is for us is clear without words.
More than 50% of the tonnage of the country's marine transport fleet, which occupied the sixth place in the world, 60% of the fishing fleet, which was the largest in the world, and 80% of the river fleet, were built at the shipbuilding plants of the USSR. Research vessels, floating and fixed platforms for oil and gas production on the sea shelf, as well as various vessels for their maintenance were built. In most areas of marine technology, our country was at the level of the leading maritime powers, and in a number of areas it was ahead of them. We had a number of priority achievements recognized in the world. These are nuclear icebreakers, ships and hydrofoils and hovercraft, ekranoplanes, etc. In recent years, in shipbuilding, the civil and Navy of Russia, there have been Big changes. The volume of the state defense order was reduced by 20 times, and civil shipbuilding - by more than 5 times. The level of capacity utilization at shipbuilding enterprises decreased to 20-25%. Due to the sharp reduction in the volume of construction of civil ships in Russia, the natural aging of the domestic fleet is not replenished. So, in 2002, only 4 sea transport vessels were built (previously - 35-40 sea vessels annually).
A similar situation is with the construction of ships of mixed and river navigation. The number of cargo ships in the river fleet has decreased by one third over the past eight years. The average age of ships exceeded 20 years. In 2002, only 8 ships of mixed and river navigation were built (previously - about 25 ships annually).
Even worse is the situation with the replenishment of the fishing fleet. In the fishing fleet of Russia, the number of vessels has sharply decreased, and the annual volume of fish catch has decreased from 7 to 4.5 million tons per year. Over half of the vessels of this fleet require replacement due to exceeding their service life.
In 2002, only 9 fishing vessels were built. In the years preceding the collapse of the USSR, more than 100 of them were built annually. The long-term programs for the development of merchant and fishing fleets approved earlier by the Government of the Russian Federation have not been implemented. Thus, the program "Revival of the Merchant Fleet of Russia" provided for the supply navy in 1993-2000 589 vessels with a total deadweight of 8427 thousand tons. The replenishment was only about 25% in terms of the number of vessels and 5% in terms of deadweight of the planned one in the program. The fishery development program planned the construction of fishing vessels at the enterprises of the Russian Federation in 1996-2000. in the amount of 301 units. In fact, only 14 were delivered.
The whole world is building ships on credit, which is approximately 80% of the cost of the ship, i.e. payment by installments is given for 10-12 years at 5-6% per annum, and 20% is paid by the future shipowner. This is not the case in Russia. Domestic shipbuilders lose in the competition with foreign ship manufacturers, because they are in unequal conditions with them. Our high taxes, including VAT, customs duties and others increase the cost of ships under construction by 20-25%. But the main threat to the competitiveness of domestic shipbuilding is different. Without exception, all shipbuilding enterprises of the country are two to three times inferior to the leading companies in Europe and Asia in terms of the duration and labor intensity of building ships of all classes and purposes. According to federal agency sea and river transport, the wear of the equipment of mechanical shops of shipbuilding plants is 85%, foundries - 73-75%, complex docks - 65%. Due to the outdated material and technical base, Russian shipbuilders build expensively and slowly. For example, the construction of a tanker with a deadweight of 47,000 tons at the Admiralty Shipyards takes an average of 19 months. The cost of processing 1 ton of metal is 105 man-hours. By international standards the duration of the construction of such a vessel is 7-8 months, and the cost of processing 1 ton of metal is 29 man-hours. If technical re-equipment is not carried out in the next two or three years, then in the foreseeable future it will be impossible to compete with foreign enterprises equipped with advanced technological equipment. It is necessary to give at least one example of the attitude of the state to the problem of shipbuilding. In 1993, at the initiative of the Clinton administration, the United States passed the National Shipbuilding Initiative Law. This document enables American shipowners to receive government loan guarantees in the amount of 87.5% of the cost of the ship with installments for 25 years when building ships at US shipyards.
It is large-scale state support that underlies both the South Korean and Chinese miracles.
It's no secret that the automotive industry, like the aircraft industry and shipbuilding, is the driving force behind the development of the country's economy, including metallurgical redistribution, machine-building base, rubber and glass industries, electronics and much more. No one denies the need to attract Western investors for the construction in Russia (mainly of assembly plants) of automobile enterprises. But by and large, we give our market to American, South Korean, Italian businesses (and soon Chinese will join them), which, by supplying us with both finished machines and components for assembly plants, develop their economies, create thousands of jobs in their own countries. home, take out the profits, etc.
China recently decided to build 100 domestic auto plants. Over the next 10 years, this country intends to significantly increase the volume of exports of automotive products to world markets, in value terms, exports will reach $ 120 billion a year. own car enterprises, producing cheap "people's" cars for the population?
The object of close attention in this article is the activity building complex countries, including production building materials. The actual production of building materials in 2006 compared to the level of production in 1990 is: cement - 66%, building bricks - 46.9%, non-metallic building materials - 41.5%, prefabricated reinforced concrete products- 30.9%, soft, roofing and insulating materials - 50.1%. Accordingly, there is a significant reduction in construction volumes in all areas. economic activity.
Almost every ninth construction site provided for investment program, in 2006 construction was not carried out. Out of 1234 construction projects planned for commissioning in 2006 at the expense of federal budget, only 317 were fully introduced, i.е. 25.7% and partially - 145 construction projects. Moreover, 771 construction projects should be put into operation for the objects of the social complex, and in fact only 174 objects have been built, i.e. 22.6%. And this situation is repeated from year to year. If we consider specific gravity of unprofitable enterprises and organizations in the Russian Federation in the main sectors of the economy as a percentage, then we get an even more bleak picture. So, if in 1990 there were 7% of unprofitable enterprises in the country's industry, then in 2006 - about 40%; in agriculture there were 2.8%, in 2006 - 38.2%; in construction it was 7.2%, in 2006 - 31%; in housing and communal services it was 22.5%, in 2006 - 58%, etc.
The dynamics in the financial sector deserves attention, especially over the past 7 years.
With a slight increase in production accounts payable increased by 2.6 times over 7 years, and accounts receivable - by 3.9 times, which indicates a clear deterioration financial condition all sectors of the national economy and specific enterprises with all the ensuing consequences.
Table 2. Some results of economic reforms in Russian industry in 1991–2006
Table 3. Accounts payable and receivable of enterprises and organizations of the Russian Federation (billion rubles)
Table 4. Total debt of enterprises and organizations of the Russian Federation
Tab. 4 shows the real situation in the economy of the Russian Federation. The total debt for 7 years increased 4 times, although real production increased not so significantly. Bank credits and loans to the country's enterprises increased by 9.7 times, which, at an annual interest rate of 15-20%, led to a very large rise in the cost of manufactured products and a decrease in their profitability.
Imports not only grew from $45 billion to $140 billion. Most importantly, its structure has changed not for the better. It is becoming more and more consumerist. Foreign purchases of consumer goods, household appliances and cars have grown sharply. Food imports are growing every year, while domestic enterprises are falling into decline and cannot compete with the influx of cheap foreign goods.
If the debts of the state are somehow reduced, then commercial obligations Russian companies are growing. And this is the main problem. In principle, there is nothing wrong with the fact that private companies borrow for international market. They took - and they pay. The trouble is that the main borrowers of our kind of commercial sector are companies that are either fully owned by the state or have a controlling stake. And if so, then the state will again be responsible for their obligations, in the end.
If in 2000 our "commercial" structures owed foreigners 31.4 billion dollars, then by the beginning of this year - already more than 180 billion. It turns out that over the past 5 years, the debts of Russian corporations to Western creditors have grown more than 6 times.
On account of future oil and gas supplies, loans are taken for the construction of various facilities, gas and oil pipelines, for the purchase of other companies, advertising, etc. Think about these figures: over the past 6 years, Russian banks' debt to foreigners has grown by $41.2 billion, and corporate debt by $103.6 billion! In 2005 alone, external borrowings by enterprises, mainly state-owned, amounted to almost $50 billion. It turns out that over the past six years (excluding 2006), the debt burden per Russian has increased from $1,000 to $1,800, and the total external debt states - from 160 billion to 260 billion dollars. economic situation in the country, it is impossible not to say about the prices. For all 16 years of "reforms" prices for literally everything are growing rapidly. Even today, prices for food and consumer goods have equaled, and sometimes even exceed, prices in Europe and the United States.
Foreign experience in solving pricing problems, in particular in agriculture, is quite rich and effective. So in the US for state support The agricultural industry adopted a number of special laws that provide for direct payments and reduced interest on loans, preferential taxation and insurance of crops, limiting the growth of electricity tariffs and other measures. As a result, 1 hectare of arable land in the USA accounts for 800 dollars of subsidies; in the European Union - $ 900 of various subsidies and benefits. And here in Russia - from 12.5 to 15 dollars per 1 ha.
In the same Malaysia, there is a scheme for providing subsidies to small farmers, but its goal is not to fight poverty, but to keep prices for basic foodstuffs low so that the population of the country does not suffer from the constant increase in food prices. Fishermen also receive similar subsidies to control the price of fish.
Of particular concern is the systematic increase in prices and tariffs for certain groups paid services population. Tab. 5 shows this growth only for the last 7 years.
Table 5. Indices of prices and tariffs for certain groups of paid services to the population in the Russian Federation in 2000–2006
Conclusion
Since 1991, "reforms" began in Russia, the results of which could be traced in the tables presented in this article. The criminal activity of the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin for 9 years did not teach politicians, deputies, public figures of the country anything. In December 1999, the powers of the President were transferred to the successor V.V. Putin, who immediately announced that he would continue the course of "reforms" launched by his predecessor and even awarded him in 2001 the second highest order of the Russian Federation - the Order of Merit for the Fatherland, I degree, and a package of benefits both for him personally and for members of his family. Over the past 7 years, the situation in the country has not undergone major changes. The course of "reforms" continued. It has become worse with freedom of speech, with human rights, with crime. In society, the stratification into the super-rich, the rich, the poor and the poor is rapidly growing.
At the same time, during these 16 years, public administration, fundamental science, healthcare and education systems, including vocational education, forestry service, geological exploration, the once powerful and efficient structure of water management and land reclamation has been practically eliminated, and much, much more.
The President of the country annually addresses the Parliament and society with seemingly quite reasonable proposals. TV channels almost daily show the highest officials of the state, talking about success in the economy and grandiose national projects. The ruling United Russia party considers the chosen course to be absolutely correct. Those. everything is developing normally in the country, the Government is coping with the tasks set, although sometimes there are mentions of some shortcomings.
However, the figures and the actual state of affairs in the socio-economic sphere tell a completely different story. In a small article it is impossible to cover all the problems that have accumulated over the past 16 years. One thing is clear: Russia cannot blindly copy the methods market economy, the health care system, education, the operation of the fuel and energy complex, transport and the management system in the form in which they exist in Europe and especially in the United States. Nevertheless, there are people in the world to learn from, and we ourselves have considerable experience, we have tried everything. There are many proposals for a radical change in the state of affairs for the better. Unfortunately, for all 16 years, and especially for the last 7 years, they have been completely ignored by the authorities. But hope always remains. Millions of Russians believe that common sense will prevail in the end.
PES 84/20.04.2007
Notes
1. Sidorov V. Where is Russia going? Arguments and Facts. 2005. No. 40.
2. Dmitrieva O. Russia sponsors developed countries. Russian Federation today. 2005. No. 7.
3. Dr Mahathir bin Mohamad. The Way Forward. Wiedenfeld & Nicolson, London, UK, 1998.
4. J. Dempsey. And what now, Mr. Putin? The International Herald Tribune. August 8, 2005.
5. The Times. September 2, 2005.
6. Aviation in Russia. M.: Mashinostroenie, 1988.
Socio-economic situation in the Russian Federation at present stage.
The heavy economic legacy inherited from the USSR made it difficult to carry out reforms in Russia. Yet from January 1992 ᴦ. Russian government headed by E. T. Gaidar, embarked on economic reforms designed to ensure the transition to the market, to legitimate private property. By this time, the country was in an extremely difficult situation. Over the past year, prices have risen 8-11 times, the gross national product has decreased by 15-20%. There were practically no industrial goods or food products left on the shelves of stores. The extractive industries and the military-industrial complex dominated the Russian economy, gigantomania flourished, many enterprises produced obsolete products that no one needed. Program economic reform to bring the country out of the crisis included a number of measures: the liberalization of prices for most goods, i.e., the rejection of their administrative regulation, freedom of trade and privatization - the sale of most state property to private individuals. The chosen path of "shock therapy", according to the supporters of the so-called monetary model of the economy, was supposed to lead to a balance between solvent demand (enterprises and the population) and commodity supply. It was believed that in the end it would be possible to achieve stabilization of the economy and create the necessary conditions for its recovery. At the same time, optimistic forecasts were not confirmed. The liberalization of prices led to their growth not by 5 times, as planned, but by 100 or more times. Most of the country's population was below the poverty line. Not only did the issue of money unsecured by the mass of commodities not stop, but it constantly grew. In general, for 1992 ᴦ. the issuance of cash has increased compared to 1990 ᴦ. 54 times. Hopes for achieving market equilibrium and curbing inflation have dissipated. The government was forced to establish a high level of taxation, to minimize budget spending on social needs and maintenance of the army, and to resort to other unpopular economic measures. As a result, social tension in society increased. Opposition to the government's course intensified. The stronghold was the Congress of People's Deputies and its Supreme Soviet. Differences also arose within the Russian leadership itself. A number of government officials, in particular Vice-President A. V. Rutskoi, criticized the reform policy pursued by the Gaidar government. Under pressure from the 7th Congress of People's Deputies, Yeltsin agreed to the resignation of Gaidar, who at that time (December 1992 ᴦ.) served as prime minister. V. S. Chernomyrdin became the new prime minister.
The collapse of the USSR and the collapse of perestroika drew a line under the attempts of socialist reformism. The crisis in all spheres of society, which accompanied the emergence of sovereign states on the ruins of the Soviet Union, was extremely difficult.
In Russia by the autumn of 1991 ᴦ. the situation in the economic sphere has become catastrophic, especially in the field of food security of the country. Coupons were introduced in all cities. Often these coupons simply had nothing to buy. More than 60 out of 89 Russian regions there were no stocks of food grain at all, and the production of flour was carried out due to the immediate (from the wheels) processing of the incoming grain for import.
Foreign exchange reserves were almost completely exhausted, and the gold reserve for the first time in the entire existence of the state was less than 300 tons on January 1, 1992 ᴦ. Ruble as currency unit was on the verge of death. This meant that there was no point in doing production activities because it was impossible to buy anything with the rubles earned from the sale. The country fell into collapse, the threat of hunger and cold became real. What to do in this situation? Theoretically, there were two ways:
The first is to introduce emergency measures and supply the cities with food by force, but this path in the 20th century. the country has already passed several times;
The second is to liberalize the economy through radical reforms.
In the last months of 1991 ᴦ. President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin formed a government consisting of young reformers, in which the leading role was played by the scientist-economist E.T. Gaidar.
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He was a proponent of liberal market reforms and took responsibility for the difficult and painful decisions to implement the reform.
The reforms proposed by E.T. Gaidar, exacerbated most of the social problems:
Chronic delays in the payment of wages began;
Unemployment appeared, the growth of which constantly increased;
The criminogenic situation in society has become aggravated;
The standard of living of a significant part of the population began to fall;
Property stratification, unprecedented in recent years, has become a reality;
worsened demographic situation(decline in the birth rate, increase in mortality); The brain drain has taken on a mass character abroad, where decent conditions for work and life are created for them.
The transformation of the socio-economic system was very difficult and had a negative trend in terms of the growth of internal gross product(GDP) until 1996 ᴦ. The first signs of economic growth appeared in 1997, when the volume of industrial output increased compared to the previous year.
The financial crisis of August 17, 1998, despite its severity and tragedy for part of the country's population, turned out to be a positive fact for the domestic industry. Collapsed financial pyramids, which diverted funds from the real sector of the economy, excess imports decreased. Production (including in the military-industrial complex) began to revive. Favorable for Russia in 1999–2007. There was also a conjuncture for oil on world markets, which made it possible to significantly increase state revenues. Since 2000. GDP has a steady, on average 6%, annual growth. During this period, Russia managed to pay off external debts. At the same time, much remains to be done before the Russian economy becomes strong, competitive and prosperous.
Socio-economic situation in the Russian Federation at the present stage. - concept and types. Classification and features of the category "Socio-economic situation in the Russian Federation at the present stage." 2017, 2018.
Currently, the Russian Federation is experiencing a downward trend in economic activity. Thus, from January to November 2015, the country's GDP decreased by 3.8%. Real disposable cash income of the population, compared with 2014, decreased by 3.5%, and the real wage employees of organizations by 9.2%. The real incomes of the population, salaries and pensions decreased in 73 regions of the country.
Stagnation is observed in industrial production, the only exception is mining (a decrease of only 0.1%, y/y). As of November 2015, sales of industrial products remain in the red. However, demand continues to decline no longer as intensively as in previous months (Bozhechkova, Burdyak, Grishina, 2015). Industrial production is declining due to rising costs, lack of investment and low demand caused by a reduction in real incomes of the population.
An analysis of the socio-economic situation of the population shows that approximately half of them note the deterioration of the economic situation in the country, and a third of the respondents believe that this situation will continue for one to two or more years. Due to rising prices, the population of the country reduces its consumption. Index consumer prices in 2015 increased by 12.1%, which indicates an increase in the cost of the basic basket of goods and services and, as a result, the transition of households to a selective savings model of consumption.
As of November 2015, the number of unemployed in Russia is 4.4 million people (5.8% economically active population) . At the same time, the number of part-time workers who are idle at the initiative of the administration and on vacation is 258.5 thousand people. The factor in the increase in the unemployment rate is the decrease in the need of employers for employees, for example, in November 2015 the number of vacancies decreased by 81 thousand. The number of employees in organizations is also declining by an average of 1% per year across the country. In the last months of 2015, there was an increase in wage arrears, which, as of December 1, amounted to 3.9 billion rubles. Wage arrears increased significantly in the production and distribution of electricity, in construction and transport.
According to the results of January-November 2015, the retail trade turnover decreased by 9.3%. Moreover, the share of food retail turnover is steadily growing. At the same time, the level of commodity stocks in retail trade remains stable and is 38 days in November.
The volume of paid services to the population keeps negative dynamics. The decline in this area is influenced by the reduction in the consumption of a group of “mandatory” services to the population, such as communication services, transport, and housing and communal services, which occupy 60% in the structure of paid services to the population. In segments such as physical culture and sports services, cultural institutions, hotels and similar accommodations, as well as health and wellness and medical services, an increase in volume is observed. Therefore, due to the situation in foreign exchange market and the weakening of the ruble exchange rate, a part of the country's population cannot afford holidays abroad, preferring domestic tourism.
The issuance of loans to the population in 2015 decreased due to the tightening of the rules for their issuance, higher interest rates on loans, changes in the foreign exchange market and a decrease in activity in the housing market. Having paid off a loan, borrowers do not take new ones, which reduces the population's debt to banks as a whole, but the share of overdue loans is growing.
Disproportions in regional development persist in Russia, which were formed back in Soviet times and are still manifested at all levels, from federal districts before municipalities. The regions of the Russian Federation can be divided into five groups (Belkina, 2015):
The first four groups of regions are considered to be regions of advanced development; all of them are characterized by a high quality of human capital for the country and developed infrastructure, which allows maintaining a relatively high standard of living for the population. The regions of the fifth group are considered regions of lagging development. During the Soviet period, large industrial and scientific centers were created in a number of them, but later they were ruined and closed. Currently, these regions are subsidized, characterized by a low standard of living compared to other regions of the Russian Federation and high mobility of the population, which prefers moving to more attractive regions.
In the first half of the 2000s, inequality between regions gradually decreased in Russia. As before, clear leaders stood out, Moscow and St. Petersburg, which remained the centers of the country's economic and political life, but the gap between all regions of Russia was shrinking from year to year.
This process slowed down and practically stopped in 2008. Due to the financial crisis, many large projects in the regions were canceled and frozen, which contributed to the deterioration of the economic climate both in them and in the country as a whole. This period is characterized by a refusal to invest in projects with a long payback period, the withdrawal of investments from the country and an increase in the mobility of the population. Subsequently, as the economic situation improved, the disproportions between the regions began to decrease again, but a new wave of the economic crisis and sanctions applied to Russia could again stop this process (Kuznetsova, 2015).
Such a development of the situation could not but affect the state and development opportunities in the regional systems of school education. Changes in school education in the country as a whole should be considered in more detail.
Financing of education in 2015 in the country sharply to 405.54 billion rubles. For comparison, in 2014, 3,037.29 billion rubles were spent on education. Thus, for the year, even without recalculation in comparable prices public funding decreased by more than 7 times.
The reduction in funding, in particular, is associated with the law on normative per capita funding of educational institutions that came into force. Budget educational institutions became directly dependent on the number of students. However, the amount of payment per student varies significantly in different regions of the country, as it depends on the regional calculated per capita standard, which is determined according to the budget of the region. This situation leads to a gap between the regions in terms of such an important indicator from the point of view of motivation as the ratio of the efforts expended by the teacher and the salary received by him. This favors the relocation of teachers to more attractive regions.
There was no significant difference in the perception of parents of students of the school situation in different regions, despite significant objective differences in the standard of living, not revealed (Klyachko, Avraamova, Loginov, 2014). Regardless of the region of Russia, parents make the same requirements for teachers and expect similar results. The difference in the salaries of teachers from different regions does little to stimulate a reduction in the differentiation of schools in terms of the quality of education.
There is a tendency to reduce the number of secondary educational institutions in the country. Thus, over the period from 2012 to 2015, their number decreased from 46.2 thousand secondary educational institutions to 42.6 thousand. At the same time, the number of students increased from 13,713 thousand people to 14,666 thousand students over the same period Rosstat). Therefore, given this trend, we can say that the number of students studying in one educational institution will increase. And in connection with the per capita funding of educational institutions, the amount of funding for a separate secondary educational institution will increase in direct proportion to the increase in the number of students.
With the introduction of the mandatory USE in the Russian Federation, a universal criterion for evaluating the activities of teachers and the school as a whole has been formed. As the country develops, the attitude towards the activities of teachers on the part of the leadership and parents of students is gradually changing (Avraamova, Belyakov, Klyachko, 2015).
As a result, a study of educational institutions in four regions of Russia showed that competition between schools has intensified, not only to attract new students, but also teachers. Thanks to the results of the Unified State Examination and the availability of information in open sources, most parents try to send their children to those schools that have the best results. Accordingly, schools are interested in attracting teachers who are more focused on preparing for the USE.
At the same time, only 25% of parents believe that school preparation for passing the exam will be enough. Most prefer to apply for additional education to tutors in all subjects of interest. Teachers largely agree with the opinion of parents. Thus, only 33% of the teachers surveyed believe that most schools can give students the knowledge and skills to pass the GIA and the Unified State Exam for high scores without additional training.
As a result, the requirements of parents to the school are reduced to three main areas: to give children the knowledge necessary in later life and work; provide socialization; to instill a penchant for sports and productive leisure activities. Moreover, specialized schools cope better with this task (Klyachko, Avraamova, Loginov, 2014). However, assessments of the implementation of these tasks remain at a low level. Only 45% of the parents surveyed believe that these tasks are being implemented at least to some extent.
Thus, there is a change in the perception of the goals of the school and school education on the part of the parents of students, who are one of the most important categories of stakeholders, which largely determines their own goals of secondary education organizations. Accordingly, the motivation system of teachers may gradually change, on which the opinion that the most important function of the school is the socialization of children is inevitably beginning to put pressure, while knowledge for entering higher educational establishments"purchased" from tutors or from tutors acting in that capacity, but on a private basis.
In 2013, schools in Russia switched to remuneration of teachers depending on the success of their students. An increase in wages occurs in the form of an increase in the bonus part when students achieve certain successes. The criteria for success are expressed in prizes at various conferences and competitions, as well as the results of the Unified State Examination, State Examination and various monitoring.
This payment system has existed for several years in European countries. According to research, student performance after the introduction of wages, depending on the success of students, improves student performance by 25% in mathematics and literature, and by 15.4% in other subjects (Woessmann, 2011). At the same time, there was no direct connection between the size of the dependent part of the teacher's salary and the progress of students. That is, the size of the remuneration of the teacher in case of success of his students does not have a significant impact on student performance, only the fact that the salary is directly related to student grades is important.
The population of the country in 2015 was 146.3 million people (increased by 2.6 million people compared to 2014), which indicates that the demographic rise within the country continues. To provide the population with secondary education, there are 42.6 thousand general educational organizations, in which at the beginning of 2015 14666 thousand people studied and 1054 thousand teachers worked (according to Rosstat) .
It should be noted that since 2008 the number of students in general education institutions has been on average at the level of 137 thousand people, while the number of teachers in 2009 decreased by 304 thousand and continued to decline until 2014. Therefore, the average The number of students per teacher has increased. So, in 2008 it was 9.77 students, and now it is 13.91 people (according to Rosstat) .
The ongoing education reform in Russia unites general education and preschool institutions into single centers, which contributes to a reduction in funding for education in general. The consequence is that part of the teachers, in connection with the emerging changes, is forced to look for a new job.
As already mentioned, 2014 put significant pressure on the Russian economy. Events in Ukraine created a number of problems that hurt the already weak economic activity. The financial isolation of Russia's largest borrowers, the devaluation of the ruble and significantly increased inflation were largely the result of geopolitical processes. And if even a year ago one could hope for the appearance of any positive signals from the final consumption and capital investment, it is now obvious that in 2015 the economy will still enter a recession. How long it will last depends on many factors, the main of which is the duration of Western sanctions and the behavior of commodity prices.
In 2014, economic growth was 0.6%, most likely due to a growth pass-through effect of 1.3% in 2013. Two factors also contributed to this:
1. Timely response to the Government and the Bank of Russia, which contributed to the stabilization of the economic situation. In November 2014, the previously planned transition to a floating exchange rate of the ruble was carried out, and prompt measures were taken to support the financial sector, including additional capitalization of banks in December.
2. The fall in oil prices and the tightening of sanctions began at the end of July 2014, so their impact on the economy was mainly felt only in the last quarter of 2014. Obviously, their impact will be deeper in the current 2015 and 2016.
Another favorable factor is related to the compensating effect from the decrease in imports, which helped soften the blow caused by the worsening foreign trade conditions. At the same time, a significant weakening of the ruble and trade restrictions gave a small impetus to a number of manufacturing industries.
But the prospects for economic growth in 2015-2016 are negative. In 2015, the consequences of the two shocks will fully manifest themselves, and a recession will come in Russia.
In the base scenario World Bank the economy is projected to contract by 3.8% in 2015 and a slight decline of 0.3% in 2016. The presented range of economic growth rates is based on two alternative scenarios that reflect the impact different prices for oil on the main macroeconomic parameters .
An alternative forecast based on a lower oil price assumes the economy will contract by 4.6% in 2015 and the recession will continue in 2016, with the economy shrinking by 1.0%. Based on a higher oil price, GDP is projected to contract by 2.9% in 2015, after which growth will recover to 0.1% in 2016.
The key assumptions in the baseline forecast for 2015 and 2016 are that consumer demand is likely to decline in an environment of weakening confidence, and high level indebtedness of the population and a slowdown in income growth. In 2015, high inflation driven by the sharp depreciation of the ruble will continue to put pressure on incomes and wages. Investment is very likely to decline again in 2015, although with some improvement in the conditions for attracting external loans and domestic credit resources, investment demand should rise slightly by 2016. On the positive side, a weaker ruble could create incentives to expand production in a number of tradable industries.
The main risk threatening medium-term economic growth is the low level of investment. Weak investment demand speaks to deeper structural problems in the Russian economy and has already set the stage for a new era of low potential economic growth. At present, in conditions of high interest rates Russian banks are under pressure as financing costs rise, credit growth slows, and loan debt rises. As a result, there is a vicious circle in the form of a shortage of credit resources to finance projects against the backdrop of a slowdown in the economy and higher interest rates on loans. At the same time, there are other, more fundamental factors that can limit investment demand.
Uncertainty related to geopolitical tensions and sanctions still hinder investment activity. It will take some more time to restore investor confidence. The economy is still acutely aware of the problems caused by the inefficient allocation of factors of production. This is reflected not only in limited mobility labor resources but also in the weakness of state institutions that regulate markets, which leads to high selectivity in law enforcement. Private investors need guarantees of a level playing field, the development of a competitive environment and the reduction of corruption. Chronically low levels of investment will ultimately dampen the prospects for higher economic growth in Russia, significantly limiting its potential.
The impact of the sanctions is likely to last for a long time (Russia has been under sanctions for 500 years). As international experience shows, sanctions may well lead to a change in the structure of the economy and the channels of Russia's integration into the world space (this is clearly evidenced by the experience of China). Already there are first signs of change - Russia's reorientation
to new trading partners and to the markets of East Asia, Latin America and countries former USSR. In addition, protectionism and the presence of the state in the economy are on the rise. However, no matter what the new economic era will be in Russia, it will be necessary to learn how to manage the risks associated with low oil prices and economic sanctions.
In the future, despite the partly selective path of integration into world economy, Russia will continue to depend on the export of its natural resources. In this regard, it will be important to achieve success in the development of new technologies for oil and gas production in hard-to-reach fields.
If, as a response to limited access to external financing, commodity revenues are not effectively invested to develop "points of growth", then further productivity growth may be limited.
As long as access to external financing remains limited, careful risk management in the financial sector and provisioning should be a paramount strategic goal. Pursuing an inflation regulation policy within the framework of a flexible exchange rate contributes to maintaining international reserves at the required level.
Over the past decade, Russia has experienced a significant reduction in poverty, allowing many to become part of the middle class. The poverty rate, calculated according to the World Bank methodology, fell from about 40% of the total population in 2001 to 10% in 2010, and the middle class doubled from 30% of the total population to more than 60% in 10 years. However, in the base scenario of the World Bank, an increase in the level of poverty is forecasted according to the methodology of Rosstat
from 10.8% in 2013 to 14.2% in 2015 and 2016. An increase in poverty is expected due to a decline in disposable income and consumption. This will be the first significant increase in poverty since the 1998-1999 default.
Poverty did not increase during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, thanks to some growth in disposable income. But given the current constraint on budgetary resources in 2015-2016, additional support for the poor and vulnerable will be less significant than in 2008-2009. While the population at the bottom of the income distribution appears to be the most vulnerable, overall there will be less opportunity for wealth growth in 2015-2016, and there is a possibility of a negative trend in this indicator.
It is not yet necessary to expect a quick reaction from internal efficiency improvement processes. Even if the right directions are chosen, the implementation of support for such processes as import substitution or a directive increase in capital investments will require a significant amount of time.
