The article deals with the problems of the formation of an import-substituting strategy. The concepts of "import substitution", "import-substituting element" are clarified. An analysis of the dynamics of the gross domestic product and export-import operations was carried out. The special role of the competitiveness of national industries and, in the future, the influence of the export of national goods to the world market in the process of the country's transition to an innovative development path are emphasized. The possibility and necessity of using advanced production technologies in the industry of the Russian Federation are substantiated. It was revealed that the implementation of the import-substituting strategy industrial enterprises possible both with an emphasis on investment demand and with an emphasis on stimulating consumer demand. Various options for an import-substituting strategy have been proposed. A system of classification features of alternative strategies for import substitution is given, a system of factors for choosing a strategic direction of import substitution by industrial enterprises is proposed. The article was made under grant No. 1.87.14 “Theoretical and methodological foundations for the development and implementation cluster policy at the regional level and scientific and methodological substantiation of the tools for progressive structural transformations of regional socio-economic systems”.
import substitution
import substitution strategy
import substitution factors
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The policy of import substitution is entirely connected with the creation of a favorable environment for the growth of domestic industry. Supporters of this concept argue that the sustainable economic development of the state is possible only on the basis of an all-round increase in the level of industrial self-sufficiency, an increase in the volume of output of its own products. The bet on self-sufficiency is generated by the instability of the processes taking place in the world economy, a wary attitude towards foreign capital. All this dictates the need for increased attention to public sector in industry, strict regulation of the participation of foreign capital in industrialization. The policy of replacing imports of industrial products with local production is accompanied by the protection of the national industry from the impact of the world market.
Industrial import substitution was proclaimed as one of the goals of economic development in theoretical models developed by such representatives of the neo-Keynesian school as X. Chenery, M. Bruno, A. Straug, N. Carter. The model proposed by them in the 60-70s of the XX century economic growth with two deficits interpreted economic development as a gradual displacement of external sources of financing by internal ones, as a replacement of imported goods with domestic ones. The elimination of the savings deficit and the trade deficit in this model was associated with the attraction of external borrowings, while the country's internal resources were not taken into account. Most Russian scientists also do not see an alternative to industrial import substitution in relation to growth prospects. national economy.
In the economic literature, one can find a different interpretation of the concept of "import substitution". P.A. Kadochnikov understands the process of import substitution as "an increase in the production and domestic consumption of domestic goods while reducing the consumption of imported goods (in physical terms)" . According to D.N. Zaitsev, “import substitution can be understood as a relative decrease or cessation of the import of a certain product into the country in connection with the organization of the production of the same or similar product on the spot” .
From our point of view, import substitution should be understood, first of all, as an increase in the production of domestic products while reducing the consumption of imported goods (only for goods for which such substitution is possible and economically feasible). Consequently, import-substituting products are products of domestic producers that displace an imported analogue from the market due to their more attractive consumer properties.
In the case of the implementation of import substitution at the stage of production, the concept of "import-substituting element" arises. An import-substituting element is understood as a part of an imported product or service that can be replaced by a domestic counterpart. Accordingly, such a domestic analogue acts as an import-substituting element.
Import-substituting elements can be raw materials, materials, components, equipment, intangible assets, technology, certification, services third parties, to which the enterprise resorts in the process of designing and manufacturing products (consulting, engineering, marketing research).
The ultimate goal of import substitution as a factor in Russia's integration into the segments of the global market is to increase the competitiveness of national industries and, in the future, to export national goods to the world market.
In countries that have successfully implemented the import substitution policy, it was not considered as a long-term economic strategy. It was necessary to protect domestic producers and ensure economic independence. However, both world experience and research results confirm that in the conditions of a modern open economy, import substitution as an end in itself is unproductive; moreover, it is unacceptable to pursue a policy of economic isolation. The task of import substitution policy is to form a system of incentives to support the national production of import-substituting products that are competitive in foreign markets, while simultaneously promoting its export.
We have analyzed the economic development of the BRICS countries, which allows us to draw a number of conclusions (Table 1). In Brazil, GDP growth rates are relatively low and close to those of South Africa. This indicates that, despite serious financial problems, these countries managed to create not only competitive in the foreign market economic models but also a capacious domestic market. China tends more towards an open economic model with a high share of imports and exports in GDP, which is explained by its geographical proximity to Russia and the location in the country of numerous branches and subsidiaries of both Russian and American industrial enterprises that successfully cooperate with local manufacturers.
Table 1
Dynamics of GDP and the ratio of exports and imports in the BRICS countries in 2012-2014
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GDP growth rates, in % to the previous. year |
GDP per capita, USD |
The ratio of exports and import of goods, % |
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Brazil |
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Notes: 1 2014 is a preliminary estimate by the National Bureau of Statistics of the PRC.
Source: .
In India, the ratio of exports to imports of goods is slightly lower and generally lags behind the performance of the BRICS countries. Enough in Russia high level GDP per capita, the ratio of exports and imports is dominated by export operations. Thus, the performance of the BRICS countries is heterogeneous and much more dependent on imports.
Over the past decades, differences in the growth rates and directions of Russia's foreign trade have become noticeable. Such trends have led to significant shifts in both the geographical and commodity structure of Russia's foreign trade turnover.
During the first fourteen years of the new millennium, the Russian Federation has consistently reduced its foreign trade balance with a positive balance. This also applies to the balance of Russia's export-import operations with foreign countries. On the whole, the dynamics and geographical structure of Russia's foreign trade is as follows (Table 2).
Since 2000, the growth rates of the foreign trade turnover between the Russian Federation and Germany have been quite good, and in 2014 exports to this country exceeded imports. In 2014, China imported 1.5 times more products to Russia than Russia exports. The turnover of imports from the US has grown 9 times since 2000, while Russia's exports to the US have only doubled. Thus, the expansion of cooperation with foreign countries is one of the priority areas of foreign trade and foreign economic relations of Russia, which are established at three levels: the CIS, the near abroad, and the far abroad. The share of the CIS countries accounts for about 1/4 of the total volume of Russia's foreign trade turnover.
Potential Russian economy on the formation of import-substituting industrial policy is quite high.
table 2
Dynamics of foreign trade of the Russian Federation in 2000-2014 (million USD)
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Imports from countries - main trading partners |
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1. Germany |
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2. Netherlands |
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7. France |
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9. Brazil |
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Export to countries - main trading partners |
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1. Germany |
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2. Netherlands |
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|
7. France |
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9. Brazil |
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Source : .
One of the topical areas of import-substituting industrial policy is to reduce technological dependence on foreign suppliers. And although some industrial enterprises manage to create technologies that are competitive on the domestic market, in general, the dynamics of creating and using advanced production technologies does not allow us to hope for quick results. Technological exchange in Russia is slowing down, while the use of advanced production technologies in the manufacturing industry is decreasing. The number of developed production technologies is growing, but in most cases these are technologies that are new to Russia, but do not allow for competitiveness in foreign markets.
The following factors objectively contribute to the implementation of the import-substituting industrial policy:
Positive stable dynamics of labor productivity;
The financial stability of the country, which allows, in the implementation of a targeted industrial policy, to stimulate domestic demand for the products of domestic producers and the export of competitive industrial products for a long period;
Deterioration of the macroeconomic environment, primarily a downward trend in energy prices, which stimulates both import substitution and the replacement of exports of low-level processed products with products of a higher level of processing with an increase in the share of value added and the level of manufacturability;
Russia's participation in European and world "technological platforms", its involvement in the global processes of technological exchange, which allows, if not creating new advanced production technologies, then effectively copying existing ones.
The factors for choosing one or another strategic direction for the development of import substitution at different enterprises and industries are different, but they can be divided into two groups. External uncontrollable factors include market factors (the level of demand in domestic and foreign markets, competition in the industry), the system state regulation export-import operations (the level of protection of domestic markets, the level of export stimulation). The internal factors that the enterprise can control include the resources of the enterprise (investment resources, production capacity, technology, availability of qualified personnel), enterprise management system (company mission, system of strategic goals and objectives, quality management system).
The reserve for increasing the efficiency of the enterprise at the production stage is the import substitution of individual or several elements of the product.
At the enterprise level, import substitution can be organized in one of two directions: the transition to the use of domestic analogues already on the market, the organization of own production of import-substituting elements.
The most important condition determining the expediency of import substitution is the possibility of ensuring the appropriate level of quality of domestic analogues and their recognition in foreign markets, especially in non-CIS markets. At the same time, it should be noted that there are differences in the very perception of the level of quality in a geographical context. That is, the level of quality that is quite acceptable for domestic consumption and consumers, for example, from the CIS countries, does not satisfy the needs of consumers, for example, from the EU, the USA.
The effectiveness of import substitution at the production stage is determined by the ratio of the effect obtained as a result of saving resources in monetary terms when using an import-substituting element in production, taking into account production volumes within the planning time interval (compared to the resources spent on purchasing imported analogues) and investment costs for organizing it production .
It should be noted that the organization of production of import-substituting products "from scratch" in today's economic conditions complicated by a lack investment resources Therefore, the most important direction in the development of import substitution can and should be the location of the production of import-substituting products on the basis of existing enterprises.
The implementation of the import-substituting strategy of industrial enterprises is possible in two main directions: with an emphasis on investment demand and with an emphasis on stimulating consumer demand.
With regard to Russian industrial enterprises, three options for an import substitution strategy can be proposed: the strategy of internally oriented import substitution, the strategy of externally oriented import substitution, and the strategy of mixed import substitution. Determination of the strategic direction for the development of import substitution and determination of measures, the implementation of which is necessary to achieve strategic goals, comes down to determining the classification features of import-substituting products and target markets where import-substituting products will be directed (figure).
The system of classification features of alternative strategies for import substitution
Thus, the basic principles for the implementation of the import-substituting industrial policy in Russia are:
Re-industrialization, increasing the share of industry in GDP and technologically advanced industries in the industrial structure;
Stimulation of domestic demand for the products of industrial enterprises, including through the "subsidization" of prices and the state order system;
The long-term nature of the ongoing activities, allowing to attract long-term investments;
Maintaining a high degree of economic openness. Development of cooperation with foreign partners in the areas of technological exchange, scientific cooperation and the creation of advanced production technologies. It should be remembered that the creation of artificial restrictions on the import and export of technologies leads to a decrease in the efficiency of activities and the competitiveness of products;
State support for the export of competitive industrial products.
It can be concluded that the import-substituting industrial policy serves as a tool for increasing the competitiveness of the domestic economy and ensuring economic security countries.
Reviewers:
Shatokhin M.V., Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department of Economics and Finance, Kursk branch, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Kursk;
Vertakova Yu.V., Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department regional economy and Management, Southwestern State University, Kursk.
The difficult political situation in the world last years led to the fact that we are increasingly hearing such a word as import substitution. This is the term that appeared in our daily speech in connection with a certain list of sanctions imposed against our country by the United States and the European Union. We will not discuss how legitimate and effective these actions were. Today our article is devoted specifically to the topic of import substitution in Russia.
According to the theory of economics, import substitution is the replacement of imported goods with services and goods of a domestic manufacturer. This process is accompanied by the emergence of new jobs and the influx of Money received from taxes to the treasury of the state.
For the first time in the country they started talking about import substitution in 1998. In connection with the collapse of the USSR, the links between the industry base and production were completely destroyed in the country. Until 1998, Russia was still somehow coping with the problems of industry and trying to raise the economy to its previous level. But the collapse of the ruble led to absolutely unexpected results. Import substitution in Russia during this period led to the takeoff of the economy due to the absence of foreign competitors and the increased consumer interest in domestic goods.
At the beginning of the twenty-first century, import substitution was already active state support, which was received by large companies involved in nanotechnology, mechanical engineering and nuclear energy. Such a program allowed the industry to develop as much as possible, and the profits received as a result of the work were redirected as support to other enterprises that had previously been deprived of state assistance and subsidies.
Two years ago, many Western countries imposed a number of sanctions against our state, in response, Russia announced a food embargo, which greatly stimulated agriculture. At the moment, the import substitution program has proven to be the most effective in this area. Last year, a record minimum of foreign-made food was imported into the country. We can say that our state fully provides itself with all the necessary food. This significantly worsened the economies of countries that support anti-Russian sanctions.
Russia has been thinking about import substitution for a long time, but the imposed sanctions forced economists to take measures in a short time to preserve the food independence of the state.
As a result, an import substitution program was created, it includes a number of measures until 2020. Perhaps in the future the government will provide for the extension of this program and develop a number of measures to introduce its ideas into agriculture and industry.
The program itself does not involve a number of measures and steps, it only determines the directions and areas of import substitution in Russia. The purpose of this process is to create a competitive production in Russia that meets all the needs of the country and is aimed at new markets. Also this program involves the introduction of innovative technologies and a complete change of outdated approaches to production processes.
The program limits the timing and highlights the stages of implementation of all items. We have already passed the first stage, it lasted from 2012 to 2015. At the moment, import substitution is a new round of the program, from 2016 to 2020.
The text of the document also indicates the price of this process - ten trillion rubles. But the end result of this costly activity will take Russia to an entirely new level of economic development.
It is difficult to overestimate the importance of the state policy in the field of replacing imported goods with Russian ones. After all, import substitution is not only about new jobs and independence from foreign suppliers. In general, it can be said with confidence that due to import substitution, a new round of economic development has begun in the country. First of all, agriculture provides its consumer with high quality products that meet quality standards. But such growth requires the parallel development of many related industries, which, in turn, stimulates industry and small businesses. As a result, the population gets new jobs, and industrialists get innovative technologies that provide great opportunities for further business development.
In the context of import substitution, there are several strategies that make it possible to translate into reality all the points of the government's program. In general, analysts distinguish two main categories:
The basic strategy includes several points:
Specific import substitution strategies are not always suitable for small companies and require a broad client base and the ability to work in a constantly changing environment.
First of all, for the Russian economy, import substitution is the implementation of a program to fill the market with domestically produced products. Therefore, the importance of this industry is in the first place for the government. Equally important are the fields of mechanical engineering and information technology. So far, the import substitution program in these areas has been very successful and promises good economic growth in the coming years. Let's look at each industry in more detail.
We will not repeat how import substitution in this area is a priority for the state. By the end of the program, Russia should be 90% self-sufficient in basic food products. As an addition, it should arrange the export of many products to foreign markets.
The list of main products includes:
Despite the fact that the state is taking a set of measures to support farming, there are a lot of problems in this area. Of course, the import substitution program is in place, but still the stages of its implementation in agriculture look a little blurry.
In this area, import substitution began more than ten years ago. The government actively supported domestic automobile concerns, which led to a powerful flow of investments into the industry from foreign partners. The import substitution policy has already borne fruit - production capacities are constantly expanding, thanks to investments, new factories are being opened, and innovative methods of work are being introduced. In addition, it has become profitable for the manufacturer to invest in research and development.
This area is the most difficult for import substitution in Russia. We are significantly behind Western companies in terms of developing our own software. More than 90% of all our equipment works on the platform of foreign developments. Even Russian banks served by a foreign payment system. Some analysts argue that in the coming years, Russian information companies will not be able to get a significant share of the market. But in the plans of the state there is still a similar item.
It should be noted that such large-scale tasks were not set before the Russian manufacturer before. After all, the Russian defense industry fully provides itself with software that has a high level of quality and compares favorably with foreign analogues.
The import substitution program in the field of information technology has set a number of tasks for domestic companies, the solution of which will be the fulfillment of all points of this program.
Summarizing all of the above, I would like to note that import substitution in Russia is already a running process that has brought a number of fruits, regardless of experts' assessments. Let's hope that economists and analysts were not mistaken in their forecasts, and saturation activity Russian market domestic products will be a resounding success.
The main goal of import substitution is to create the environment for the national industry, in which its greater growth will be observed.
According to the Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020, the following areas were identified as goal-setting in the formation of the import substitution policy as part of the transition from the export of raw materials to the innovative model of economic growth. Gusakov N.P., Andronova I.V. Conceptual approaches to the development of a new Economic Security Strategy // National Interests: Priorities and Security. 2014. No. 46. P. 8.:
Consolidation and expansion of global competitive advantage Russia in traditional areas (energy, transport, agrarian sector, processing natural resources), including the realization of the agricultural potential in terms of developing the export of grain and other agricultural products, the production of environmentally friendly products, import substitution in the domestic market of livestock products;
Growth (including through import substitution) of medium-tech production - food industry, industry building materials, woodworking and pulp and paper industries, as well as export-oriented chemical industry and non-ferrous metallurgy;
The development of dual technologies, the technological renewal of the mass sectors of the economy (automotive, transport engineering and machine tool building), which play a decisive role in raising the average technological level of industry and import substitution;
Intensive processes of import substitution in the food industry, the production of household appliances and the automotive industry.
In the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2020, along with the three main national security priorities (national defense, state security, public security), five sustainable development priorities are identified:
Improving the quality of life Russian citizens by guaranteeing personal safety and high standards of life support;
Economic growth, primarily through the development of a national innovation system and investment in human capital;
Science, technology, education, healthcare and culture, which are developed by strengthening the role of the state and improving public-private partnerships;
Ecology of living systems and rational nature management through balanced consumption, development of advanced technologies and expedient reproduction of the country's natural resource potential;
Strategic stability and equal strategic partnership.
Import substitution of goods by products of a domestic manufacturer present stage shows a noticeable growth and is especially relevant in the field of public procurement. The state order is currently given paramount importance as a mechanism that stimulates both macro- and microeconomic processes in a modern state. This mechanism, in one form or another, is actively used by a number of countries, including countries with high rates economy as a measure to support domestic producers. Our country is no exception.
In this strategic document, import substitution is directly indicated only in relation to the development of conceptual and program documents for interregional and territorial planning, the creation of an integrated system for controlling risks, primarily in the field of food security (paragraph 50 “due to the development of biotechnology and import substitution for basic food products”) and in financial sector(p. 63 "pursuing an active state anti-inflationary foreign exchange, exchange rate, monetary and fiscal policy focused on import substitution and support for the real sector of the economy").
Nevertheless, it seems that this institution of import substitution is directly related to all the declared strategic priorities of national security.
Import substitution of goods by products of a domestic manufacturer at the present stage shows a noticeable increase and is especially important in the field of public procurement. The state order is currently given paramount importance as a mechanism that stimulates both macro- and microeconomic processes in a modern state. This mechanism, in one form or another, is actively used by a number of countries, including countries with high economic performance, as a measure to support domestic producers. Our country is no exception.
President of the country V.V. Putin spoke about the need for import substitution in May 2014, speaking at the SPIEF: “I consider it necessary to short time to analyze the possibilities of competitive import substitution in industry and agriculture”. At the same time, the president noted that the policy of import substitution would be carried out in accordance with WTO rules and Russia's obligations to partners in the Eurasian Economic Union. The basis for import substitution should be internal sources of growth.
Import substitution of goods by products of a domestic manufacturer at the present stage shows a noticeable increase and is especially important in the field of public procurement. The state order is currently given paramount importance as a mechanism that stimulates both macro- and microeconomic processes in a modern state. This mechanism, in one form or another, is actively used by a number of countries, including countries with high economic performance, as a measure to support domestic producers. Our country is no exception.
Prime Minister D. Medvedev called the development of import-substituting industries one of the policy priorities. It is important to note that this is not only about replacing the production of already existing finished products.
According to experts, in the event of a large-scale unforeseen situation (war, international isolation, etc.), Russia will practically not be able to provide itself with strategically necessary products.
Import substitution of goods by products of a domestic manufacturer at the present stage shows a noticeable increase and is especially important in the field of public procurement. The state order is currently given paramount importance as a mechanism that stimulates both macro- and microeconomic processes in a modern state. This mechanism, in one form or another, is actively used by a number of countries, including countries with high economic performance, as a measure to support domestic producers. Our country is no exception.
Import substitution as main element industrial policy will minimize the negative effect of the imposed sanctions. The main goals of import substitution are:
Ensuring the national and state security of the Russian Federation;
Achieving technological independence in critical areas;
Assistance in the formation of a positive trade balance;
Growing national leaders to conquer the global market.
Import substitution of goods by products of a domestic manufacturer at the present stage shows a noticeable increase and is especially important in the field of public procurement. The state order is currently given paramount importance as a mechanism that stimulates both macro- and microeconomic processes in a modern state. This mechanism, in one form or another, is actively used by a number of countries, including countries with high economic performance, as a measure to support domestic producers. Our country is no exception.
The policy of import substitution can lead to important changes in various areas, in particular:
Growth in employment of the population and, as a result, to a decrease in unemployment and an increase in living standards;
Activation of scientific and technological progress and an increase in the level of education;
Strengthening the economic and military security of the country;
Growth in demand for domestically produced goods;
Expansion of production capacities.
Import substitution of goods by products of a domestic manufacturer at the present stage shows a noticeable increase and is especially important in the field of public procurement. The state order is currently given paramount importance as a mechanism that stimulates both macro- and microeconomic processes in a modern state. This mechanism, in one form or another, is actively used by a number of countries, including countries with high economic performance, as a measure to support domestic producers. Our country is no exception.
The main criteria for the process of import substitution should be economic, social and strategic expediency. Stability depends on the stability of the foreign trade balance resource provision economy, and hence economic security.
Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation S. Tsyb emphasized: “…when solving the problems of import substitution in industry, we should not deny the principles of international economic integration. We do not fence ourselves off from the world, but we conduct a dialogue with our foreign partners as openly and transparently as possible. The development and support of domestic production does not exclude the possibility of technology transfer, creation and localization of production with the attraction of foreign investment.”
According to V.V. Putin, when developing an import substitution strategy, special attention should be paid to the definition of: import substitution targets; the procedure for selection and incentive measures for enterprises and organizations participating in the implementation of plans; federal bodies executive branch responsible for the implementation of these plans.
Various experts are optimistic about the effect of the import substitution program. Thus, the Ministry of Industry and Trade believes that in case of successful implementation of a well-thought-out import substitution policy, by 2020 it is possible to reduce import dependence in various industries from 70 ... 90% to 50 ... 60%, and in a number of industries - to reach lower rates. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has set the task of reducing (until 2020) the share of imports in the manufacturing industry as a whole from 51 to 39% Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation [ Electronic resource] Access mode: http://minpromtorg.gov.ru..
The import substitution program will allow Russian enterprises to form an additional volume of production in the amount of more than 30 billion rubles. annually (starting from 2015), considers the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade D.V. Manturov. According to experts of the All-Russian Popular Front, as a result of the substitution of imported components and materials with domestic ones, it is possible to ensure the economic growth of Russia in the next 8 years by 5 ... 7% annually. Economists suggest that with the activation of import substitution processes, growth is possible industrial production in the Russian Federation by 10…15% or more in the next 5…7 years.
According to the calculations of the working group of the State Council, the volume of replacement should be at least 4 trillion. rub., implementation period - 2-3 years. During this time, at least a million jobs will be created, and additional tax revenues to the budgets of all levels will amount to about 500 billion rubles. As the governor of the Belgorod region and the head of the working group of the State Council E. Savchenko said: "... by implementing the import substitution program, we will make an economic breakthrough, which would previously have taken many years."
President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin named the production of software, radio-electronic and power equipment, the textile industry and food production among the priority sectors in which import substitution is possible in the first place.
According to the results of the analysis conducted by the Ministry of Industry and Trade in June 2014, the most promising in terms of import substitution are:
Machine tool industry (the share of imports in consumption, according to various estimates, more than 90%),
Heavy engineering (60…80%),
Light industry (70…90%),
Electronic industry (80…90%),
Pharmaceutical, medical industry (70…80%),
Mechanical engineering for the food industry (60…80%) Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation [Electronic resource] Access mode: http://minpromtorg.gov.ru..
As S. Tsyb notes, import substitution in these and other industries is possible only if there are free production capacities and competitive enterprises that can offer high-quality modern products at market prices: “In the long term, reducing import dependence is possible only through innovation, investment stimulation and creation new production.
Particular emphasis is placed on the sphere of military-industrial production, where the task of complete import substitution has been set.
According to another Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, Y. Slyusar, “... speaking of import substitution, we mean total import substitution exclusively in the defense industry. The task has been set to fully produce everything related to defense and security on the territory of Russia, and we will certainly fulfill this task. As for civilian products and dual-use technologies, here we are talking about import substitution in terms of increasing the share Russian enterprises on the market".
Obviously, to achieve the goals of import substitution, significant efforts and investments will be required, as well as changes in the work of many enterprises and organizations.
METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE IMPORT SUBSTITUTION STRATEGY IN RUSSIA
Annotation. The article substantiates the need to implement an import substitution strategy in Russia. Methodological approaches to the choice of options for the implementation of the import substitution strategy are determined. Implementation of the strategy of export-oriented import substitution is presented as the most promising in modern Russian conditions.
Keywords. Import substitution, imports, economic sanctions, domestic production, industrial modernization, national security, economic security.
Tretyak V.V., Kruglova I.A., Sigova M.V.
THE METHODICAL APPROACHES TO THE REALIZATION OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN RUSSIA
abstract. In the article was grounded the necessity of realization of import substitution strategy in Russia. The methodical approaches to the selection of variants of the realization of import substitution in Russia were defined. The strategy of export-oriented import substitution was presented as the most promising under the modern Russian conditions.
keywords. Import substitution, import, economic sanctions, domestic production, modernization of industry, national security, economic security.
In the context of a sharp depreciation of the ruble, which led to a decrease in import supplies and their rise in price in December 2013, Russia took a new state course on the strategy of replacing imported technologies and imported products with domestically produced goods and technologies, which was officially announced by the Government of the Russian Federation in March 2014 of the year. Already in May 2014, President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the international economic forum in St. Petersburg, focused on the need to analyze the possibility of competitive import substitution in industry and agriculture. At the same time, the president noted that import substitution through industrial modernization and increased competition would help domestic producers regain their own market, and internal sources of growth should serve as the basis for import substitution.
In turn, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, emphasizing the importance of import substitution in various sectors of the economy, called the development of import-substituting industries one of the policy priorities, emphasizing that by 2017 80% of goods purchased by the state
GRNTI 82.33.17
© Tretyak V.V., Kruglova I.A., Sigova M.V., 2016
Victoria Viktorovna Tretyak - doctor economic sciences, Professor, Professor of the Department of World Economy and Management of the International Banking Institute (St. Petersburg).
Irina Aleksandrovna Kruglova - PhD in Economics, PhD in Law, Associate Professor of the Department of World Economy and Management of the International Banking Institute (St. Petersburg).
Maria Viktorovna Sigova - Doctor of Economics, Professor, Rector of the International Banking Institute (St. Petersburg).
GLOBALIZATION AND WORLD ECONOMY
and state-owned companies should be of domestic production. The starting point for the intensification of the process of import substitution in Russia can be considered the decree of President V. Putin of August 6, 2014 "On the application of certain special economic measures in order to ensure the security of the Russian Federation”, which introduced Russia's response to foreign sanctions.
According to the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade, the import dependence of the Russian economy in some industries is more than 80%, which poses a potential threat to the country's national security. For example, the share of imports in the machine tool industry exceeds 90%, in heavy engineering - 60-80%, light industry- 70-90%, radio-electronic industry - 80-90%, pharmaceuticals and medical industry - 70-80%. Today, as a result of attempts to isolate the Russian economy from the channels international trade through economic and political sanctions from Western partners, the imposition of an embargo and the so-called retaliatory sanctions (self-embargo), there was a direct threat of a chain of reproduction, deceleration and actually stopping the economy in a number of sectors, and, accordingly, a threat to national security.
Based on this, the currently extremely high share of imports in various sectors of the Russian economy is an indisputable argument for Russia's transition to an import substitution strategy. As the main element of the state industrial policy, import substitution is aimed at replacing imports of industrial goods that are in demand on the domestic market with nationally produced goods and thus minimizing the negative effect of sanctions imposed on Russia by foreign partners. Opponents of the transition to an import substitution strategy in Russia argue that the creation of a closed economic system with the use of predominantly internal opportunities inevitably takes the form of economic autarky.
Autarky contradicts the laws of development of the world economy, reduces its efficiency, and causes the subsequent economic backwardness of the country. It can be objected that at this stage Russia found itself in a state of need to implement an import substitution strategy by force, due to external circumstances due to the economic blockade against it and the imposition of economic sanctions. And in these circumstances, the implementation of the import substitution policy should be considered as a means of protection from external pressure.
However, it can be assumed that the harsh conditions in which the Russian industry finds itself today will benefit its development and turn it into a sustainable platform for the national economy. This assumption is justified by the fact that the import substitution policy is based on creating a favorable environment for the growth of the national industry, which implies an active state support domestic producer. However, the implementation of the import substitution strategy should not lead to a violation of the principles of international economic integration.
In addition, import substitution is a system-forming factor in ensuring national security, since it can ensure technological independence in critical areas, contribute to the formation of a positive trade balance, as well as the cultivation of national leaders to conquer the global market. In this regard, from the point of view of import substitution, the most relevant products today are the products of industries that have fallen under economic sanctions, as well as industries that are a priority in terms of national security issues - high-tech machine tool products, oil and gas engineering products.
When developing an import substitution strategy, special attention should be paid to the choice of an appropriate model. Considering today's Russian realities, as well as analyzing the existing overseas experience, it is possible to use three options for implementing the import substitution strategy: internally oriented, externally oriented and mixed (see table). The strategy of intra-oriented import substitution is aimed at the development of import-substituting industries in order to develop only the domestic market. In this situation, enterprises replace used imported components with domestic counterparts and sell the product on the domestic market. The disadvantages of this system include the fact that the use of intra-oriented import substitution can lead to stagnation innovation activities at the level of enterprises, as well as to the backlog of the national economy in the field of technological and scientific and technical cooperation.
Tretyak V.V., Kruglova I.A., Sigova M.V.
The application of the intra-oriented import substitution model has become a defining stage in the development of the so-called new industrial countries (NICs) of Latin America (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay). The internally oriented strategy of import substitution played a stimulating role in creating a diversified national economy with the expansion of the production of essential goods in-house. In order to protect their economy from expansion from North America in the 50-60s. 20th century Latin American countries took a number of measures to reduce prices for domestically produced products, and the funds retained in this way within the state were directed to the modernization of industry.
Implementation options for the import substitution strategy
Variant of the import substitution strategy Content of the strategy Benefits
Strategy of intra-oriented import substitution Development of import-substituting industries in order to develop only the domestic market In this situation, enterprises replace used imported components with domestic counterparts and sell the product on the domestic market
Strategy of outward-oriented import substitution Promotion of domestic products on the world market and substitution of imported components and parts in export products Implementation of this strategy encourages enterprises to implement R&D in accordance with the requirements of foreign markets, which ultimately should lead to an increase in the competitiveness of domestic industries in the domestic market with subsequent exit to the foreign market
Mixed import substitution strategy Carrying out import-substituting activities both in the domestic and foreign markets in various ratios Possibility of rational distribution of the volume of resources necessary for the implementation of import substitution in domestic and foreign directions, the possibility of reducing the cost of both exported products and products oriented to domestic sales market
The strategy of intra-oriented import substitution was carried out mainly at the first stage of industrialization of the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America and consisted in the gradual rejection of imports of industrial products and in providing the domestic market with its own products. At first, such import substitution was carried out in production consumer goods, then it covered the products of heavy industry. However, such import-substituting development as a whole turned out to be insufficiently effective. Thus, the countries of Latin America, which at one time implemented the strategy of intra-oriented import substitution, eventually faced a general deterioration in economic situation, which resulted in the promotion of inflation, a decrease in the volume of savings and, as a result, a reduction in investment activity, a deficit in the balance of payments and an aggravation of problems in international foreign exchange liquidity.
These countries have not been able to carry out the structural restructuring of their economies and bring even domestic markets(not to mention foreign) a sufficient amount of locally produced goods. Enterprises that relied entirely on government support measures did not become competitive, and national governments that encouraged protectionism nurtured entire industries based not on real competitiveness, but on administrative resources. The profits received by such enterprises were directed not to the development of production and modernization, but to lobbying their interests through the state in order to maintain the status quo. Eventually budgetary policy these countries turned out to be inefficient, and import substitution led not to growth, but to a decrease in the competitiveness of national industries.
In itself, the strategy of intra-oriented import substitution is a catch-up development strategy that involves the transition from the production of simple goods to science-intensive and high-tech products with high added value. And this is impossible without an open economy, stimulating technological modernization, increasing labor productivity, efficiency and creating competitive products.
GLOBALIZATION AND WORLD ECONOMY
As an alternative to this strategy, many countries began to use the strategy of outward-oriented import substitution, which was based on the promotion of domestic products on the world market; it was supposed to replace imported components and parts in export products. The implementation of this strategy encourages enterprises to implement R&D in accordance with the requirements of foreign markets, which ultimately should lead to an increase in the competitiveness of domestic industries in the domestic market, followed by entry into the foreign market. The task of the effective implementation of the strategy of outward-oriented import substitution is to identify the reserves of the national economy for the formation of factors that support previously underdeveloped promising industries.
Countries Western Europe and the US first used the strategy of outward import substitution in 1850 to support their own industry. However, this strategy was most developed in the middle of the 20th century. in developing countries, especially in new industrialized countries Asia (Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines). At the same time, the states of East Asia showed a trend of faster economic growth compared to industrial developed countries in full accordance with the predictions of convergence theory.
Subject to the choice of a mixed import substitution strategy, the enterprise carries out import substitution activities both in the domestic and foreign markets in various ratios, which makes it possible to rationally allocate the resources necessary for import substitution. However, the need to implement R&D and innovation in accordance with the requirements of foreign markets in the long term requires a constant investment of significant resources. An example of the implementation of a mixed import substitution strategy is the Indian economy. Certain features of this strategy are also characteristic of the Egyptian economy.
Rice. The structure and logic of building an import substitution strategy
Tretyak V.V., Kruglova I.A., Sigova M.V.
The most promising in modern Russian conditions is the implementation of the strategy of outwardly oriented import substitution. Russia needs a scientifically based National program import substitution, including three directions. The first direction is connected with the substitution of those groups of imported products, analogues of which are currently produced in the Russian Federation in insufficient quantities. This requires the modernization of existing industries, aimed at increasing the volume of output. The second direction covers goods that are not yet produced in our country, but their production can be mastered in a short time. At this level, it is expedient to set the tasks of creating new modern import-substituting industries.
Finally, the third direction includes products and goods that are not produced in the Russian Federation, since their import substitution is economically unprofitable or impossible due to objective reasons. Such goods belong to the so-called critical imports, and the main task- reduce the consumption of goods of this group, study and apply the possibilities of indirect substitution. The structure and logic of building an import substitution strategy are shown in the figure.
It is important to note that in the context of long-term economic isolation, import substitution inevitably leads to the conservation of the lag and the policy of catch-up development. The ultimate guideline for all import substitution measures should be the development of the competitiveness of priority sectors and the subsequent export of products to foreign markets, i.e. export-oriented (competitive) import substitution. At the same time, it is of fundamental importance to determine the priorities of export-oriented import substitution and the concentration financial resources in the most promising areas.
The success of the implementation of the strategy of export-oriented import substitution lies in the plane of purposeful joint actions of business and government to integrate domestic producers of goods and services into global value chains. Particular emphasis should be placed on reliance on private initiative, actively supported by the state.
LITERATURE
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2. Bodrunov S.D. Theory and practice of import substitution: lessons and problems. St. Petersburg: INIR im. S.Yu. Witte, 2015. 171 p.
3. Vertakova Yu.V., Plotnikov V.A. Prospects for import substitution in high-tech industries // Analytical Bulletin of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. 2014. No. 27. P. 7-19.
4. Kolotyrin E.A. The role of import substitution in the modern economic strategy of Russia // Bulletin of the Saratov State Socio-Economic University. 2015. No. 3 (57). pp. 9-13.
5. Kostin K.B. The concept of ensuring energy security (in relation to solving the problem of import substitution in the electric power industry of Russia) // Bulletin of the St. Petersburg State University of Economics. 2015. No. 1 (91). pp. 32-43.
6. Kruglova I.A. Economic sanctions as a tool for regulating international economic relations// Scientific Notes of the International Banking Institute. 2015. No. 11 (2). S. 155.
7. Krugman P.R., ObstfeldM. International economics: theory and politics. St. Petersburg: Piter, 2003. 832 p.
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10. Fedoseeva G.A. The essence and development of the theory of import substitution // Izvestia of the St. Petersburg State University of Economics. 2015. No. 3 (93). pp. 144-148.
In the context of growing economic crisis and devaluation of the ruble Russian companies there are less and less incentives to think about development, and more and more about optimizing activities.
At the same time, the relevance of two promising areas is growing: import substitution and export development. Export development is still too much of a challenge for most of our companies. But import substitution is a much clearer task. Let's talk about her.
The choice of a specific import substitution strategy depends on which opportunities of the current economic situation are a priority for your company:
There are two groups of import substitution strategies:
In practice, these strategies are used without regard to import substitution, but in the current situation, the potential for their use has grown significantly.
This import substitution strategy is basic and, it would seem, does not require much effort in the context of the devaluation of the ruble and rising import prices. In practice, everything is not so simple:
Interskol's experience in the crisis of 2008-09. shows that it is necessary to be able to quickly increase the volume of production, while maintaining the difference in price with more expensive imports.
Just the active increase in prices by the majority of Russian companies at that time did not allow for any long time to maintain the necessary parity with foreign competitors. And imports quickly regained their positions.
First of all, this strategy is suitable for companies that are able to quickly and efficiently increase the volume of production of competitive products.
This is the second most popular import substitution strategy now, which consists in replacing foreign suppliers under government orders. Usually, the successful implementation of this strategy requires the presence of the required product, business connections and the ability to work on government orders.
Most companies are looking to take advantage of this opportunity. But they should consider two significant risks:
Successful experience in implementing this strategy is available in the pharmaceutical industry.
How great the potential of this strategy is not completely clear, since the authorities have not yet fully decided on the composition and size of preferences for Russian companies. And the total volume of government orders in the current period began to decline.
This strategy is most suitable for companies from industries with a large share of state orders.
Obviously, the devaluation of the ruble, coupled with the wishes of the Russian authorities, are serious incentives for the localization of production for foreign manufacturers exporting products to Russia. And this a great opportunity already for domestic companies. It seems that little is required: to meet the standard requirements of a foreign partner and not to raise the price.
But our experience shows that only a few companies meet these requirements (especially in terms of experience in international technical standards and certification in the three key ISO systems).
This strategy is most interesting for progressive industry companies.
Also gaining popularity is such a variant of the strategy of localization of imported products as copying "without demand". It does not have a long-term perspective, but situationally it can be very effective.
This strategy is suitable mainly for companies that produce not final products, but raw materials, parts and components. They implement projects for the development of products of the next processing stage, thereby displacing imports. Critical for the strategy are a significant volume of imports of products being developed and the absence of large competitive projects.
Successful experience in implementing this strategy has been accumulated in the timber processing, petrochemical and food industries, and the building materials industry.
This strategy consists in creating own or joint production of distributed foreign products in Russia. For its implementation, it is important to have an existing customer base and good knowledge of the product.
So far, there are few examples of the implementation of this strategy in Russia, but importing distributors have more and more reasons to think about it. For example, ALT's consultants, together with the customer, developed a strategy for the transition from the model of a distributor of imported goods to a manufacturer's model for AquaArt, a major plumbing distributor. The strategy was successfully implemented.
Note that it is not always necessary to create your own production, you can try to place orders with specialized Russian manufacturers.
This strategy is most interesting for strong specialized distributors.
The choice of a specific import substitution strategy for your company depends on the specifics of the industry and business, key competencies and market position.
But first of all, you need to answer two main questions: is there a sufficient volume of imports to replace it with your products, and are you ready to invest in such a project (in the development of new products, expansion of production, etc.).
