What are economic crises? Economic crisis and its types. concept

What are economic crises? Economic crisis and its types. The concept of "crisis". Types of crises

The main types are the crisis of underproduction (deficit) and the crisis of overproduction.

The crisis of underproduction, as a rule, is caused by non-economic reasons and is associated with a violation of the normal course of (economic) reproduction under the influence of natural disasters or political actions (various bans, wars, etc.)

The crisis of overproduction is characterized by the presence a large number goods that exceed consumer demand. It usually arises due to the failure to identify aggregate demand and the impossibility of planning aggregate production in a free market. As a result, for a particular manufacturer, it is usually unknown what and how much the market needs. The first major crises of this kind appeared in England in the 17th century. Crises are regular (cyclical), or periodic, which are repeated with a certain pattern, and irregular.

Regular crises of overproduction give rise to a new cycle, during which the economy successively goes through four phases of the cycle, and prepare the basis for the subsequent crisis.

Cycle phases and their manifestations:

1) crisis (recession). There is a reduction in the volume of production and business activity, falling prices, overstocking, rising unemployment and a sharp increase in the number of bankruptcies.

2) depression (stagnation). It represents the phase of the adaptation of economic life to new conditions and needs, the phase of finding a new balance. This phase is characterized in many cases by a fall in the rate of interest.

3) revival. This is the recovery phase. Investments begin, prices, production, employment, interest rates rise.

4) rise (boom). This is the phase in which the acceleration economic development is found in a series of innovations, the emergence of a mass of new products, in the rapid growth of capital investments, stock prices, prices and wages.

A boom that takes the economy to a new level sets the stage for a new, periodic crisis.

Irregular economic crises include:

intermediate (does not give rise to a new cycle, but interrupts for a certain time the course of the rise or revival phase);

partial (different from intermediate in that it covers not

the entire economy, but any sphere of social reproduction);

Sectoral (covers one of the industries National economy);

Structural (is a violation of the law of proportional development of social production).

3. Stages of bankruptcy

Hidden stage of bankruptcy. Let us analyze the latent stage of bankruptcy using one of the possible formulas “price of the enterprise”. At the latent stage, an imperceptible, especially if special accounting is not established, a decrease in the “price” of an enterprise begins due to unfavorable trends both inside the enterprise and outside. The price of the enterprise is determined by the capitalization of profit according to the formula:

where P is the expected profit before taxes, as well as interest on loans and dividends;

K - the weighted average cost of liabilities (liabilities) of the company (the average percentage showing interest and dividends that must be paid in accordance with the prevailing market conditions for borrowed and equity capital);

V is the expected price of the enterprise.

A decrease in the price of an enterprise means a decrease in its profitability or an increase in the average cost of liabilities.

The decrease in the current value of the enterprise will be clearly manifested in terms of profitability and in the requirements of banks, shareholders and other investors of funds. Forecasting the expected decline requires an analysis of profitability and interest rate prospects.

It is advisable to calculate the "price of the enterprise" for the short and long term. The reasons for a future fall in the price of an enterprise are usually formed at the current moment and can be predicted to a certain extent. Although in the economy there is always room for unpredictable jumps.

The presented price indicator is not related to the sales prices of enterprises. The most important elements of the enterprise's potential remain outside the financial statements - personnel, scientific and technical reserves, which should play the role of the main levers of recovery.

The decrease in profitability occurs under the influence of various reasons - internal and external. A significant part of internal causes can be defined as a decrease in the quality of managerial decisions. A significant part of the external - as the deterioration of business conditions. In the latter case, it must be borne in mind that public welfare may require worse conditions for certain types of entrepreneurship.

The growth of interest rates and requirements of depositors is also determined by various factors, among which we can highlight inflation expectations, the strengthening of various types of investment risk.2

Rising prices act similarly to rising interest rates. First, it forms certain inflationary expectations, which increases the inflationary component of nominal interest rates and dividends. Secondly, the rise in prices for raw materials, materials, components, which outstrips the rise in prices for finished products of the enterprise, increases, ceteris paribus, accounts payable, which means that it may require additional lending and such a change in the structure of the company's liabilities that will raise the average cost of liabilities, even when paying cash must be borne in mind the cost of diverting funds to the current account from profitable use.

Every economic crisis is always individually specific. At the same time, typical features are present in all economic crises to a greater or lesser extent.

In the most general view economic crises can be classified as follows.

1. By breadth of coverage:

a) separate (or single) economic crises;

b) local (or group) economic crises - crises covering only a part or a group of phenomena, processes, business entities;

c) systemic economic crises - crises affecting the entire economy of the country as a whole.

2. By economic levels:

a) microcrises;

b) mesocrises;

c) macrocrises;

d) world crisis.

3. By the nature of occurrence:

a) occasional economic crises;

b) natural, including cyclical economic crises.

4. By the strength of the impact:

a) painful economic crises;

b) destructive economic crises;

c) catastrophic economic crises.

5. By exposure time:

a) short-term economic crises;

b) medium-term economic crises;

c) long-term economic crises.

6. By source of origin:

a) internal economic crises;

b) external economic crises;

c) economic crises mixed from internal and external sources;

d) spontaneous economic crises - economic crises that have developed by themselves;

e) artificial economic crises - crises deliberately created by one or another force with the aim of weakening a competitor and appropriating his resources;

f) mixed natural and artificial economic crises.

7. If possible, overcome:

a) economic crises overcome with the help of internal forces;

b) economic crises that can be overcome with external assistance or under external influence;

c) insurmountable economic crises.

In general, economic crises can be divided into two main groups: regular (cyclical, or periodic), which are repeated with a certain pattern, and irregular.

Regular (cyclical or periodic) economic crises- these are crises that give rise to a new reproduction cycle, during which the economy successively goes through four phases and prepares the basis for the next crisis. They are characterized by the fact that they cover all spheres of the economy, reaching great depth and duration.

Irregular economic crises are crises that can break out within the phases of the normal cycle of social reproduction. Among them are intermediate, partial, sectoral and structural economic crises.

Interim economic crisis- this is a crisis that does not give rise to a new cycle, but interrupts for a certain time the course of the phase of recovery or recovery. It is less deep and less long in comparison with periodic and, as a rule, has a local character. Similar crises took place in the capitalist countries in 1924 and 1927. And in 1953-1954 and 1960-1961. such crises only affected the US and Canada.

Partial economic crisis- this is a crisis that does not cover the entire economy, but only any sphere of social reproduction. One type of partial crises are financial crises. The financial crisis is a deep disorder public finance under the influence of emergency circumstances (economic, political, military). As a rule, the forms of its manifestation are chronic state budget deficit, inflation, breakdown of the tax and credit systems, insolvency on foreign loans, etc. This is a crisis of the monetary expression of economic processes, so it occupies a special position among the types of economic crises. It often accompanies more general systemic crises (as, for example, in Russia in the 1990s) or cyclical crises of social reproduction.

Industry crisis is a crisis covering one of the branches of the national economy. The reason for it can be a variety of reasons. Among them: disproportions in the development of the industry, restructuring, overproduction. Such crises are national and international. The latter include the crisis of world shipping in 1958-1962. and the crisis in the textile industry in 1977.

Structural crisis reflects the violation of the law of proportional development of social production. It is expressed in serious disproportions between industries, accompanied by insufficient output of the most important types of products in physical terms, necessary for a balanced development of the economy. Examples are the energy, raw materials and food crises.

Taking into account the variety of reasons for the cyclicity of reproduction and its dynamics, scientists from various fields propose the following types of cycles:

Kondratiev cycles, or long-wave cycles, lasting 48-55 years. Their main driving force is radical changes in the technological base of social production, its restructuring;

Blacksmith cycles lasting approximately 20 years; driving forces are shifts in the reproductive structure of production (often these cycles are called reproductive or construction cycles);

Juglar cycles with a frequency of 7-11 years, which are the result of the interaction of diverse monetary factors;

Kitchin cycles lasting 3-5 years are generated by the dynamics of the relative value of inventories at enterprises;

Private business cycles covering a period from one to 12 years and existing due to fluctuations in investment activity.

In modern conditions, scientists pay much attention to the theory of "long waves" N.D. Kondratiev (1892-1938). Back in the 1920s, while studying the dynamics of the economic situation in the USSR, Kondratiev carried out economic comparisons of a number of indicators characterizing the development of our economy with the dynamics of the world capitalist economy. Summarizing the huge statistical material, Kondratiev developed the theory of "long waves" of capitalist reproduction. The theory of "long waves" of capitalist reproduction N.D. Kondratieff is the theory that along with the well-known small cycles of capitalist reproduction (lasting 8-10 years), there are large reproduction cycles with an average duration of 48-55 years. In these cycles, two phases, or two waves, are distinguished - upward and downward. The first cycle - from 1787-1792 to 1810-1817. (upward wave) and from 1810-1817 to 1844-1851. (downward wave). The second cycle - from 1844-1851 to 1870-1875. (upward wave) and from 1870-1875 to 1890-1896. (downward wave). The third cycle - from 1890-1896 to 1914-1920. (up wave) and from 1920 to 1940 (down wave). According to his calculations, the next, fourth, large cycle was to begin at the end of the 1940s and continue until the beginning of the 1970s. An upward wave was expected, and from the beginning of the 70s to the mid-80s. - downward. The transition from the downward wave of the fourth cycle to the upward wave of the next, fifth, large cycle, according to these calculations, should have occurred in the early 1990s, and the highest point of the upward wave of this fifth cycle would be reached in the first decade of the 21st century.

The experience of the development of the world economy has shown that Kondratieff's "long waves" reliably predict the development of social reproduction. Therefore, his theory has been adopted in many countries of the world and a very respectful attitude towards large cycles has been established in foreign socio-economic literature. This theory in the 80-90s. has been the subject of a number of international conferences.

Very fruitful in the same direction as N.D. Kondratiev, the Austrian economist I. Schumpeter also worked. In his work "Business Cycles" (1939), he substantiated the concept that the main driving force behind the long-term fluctuations of the capitalist economy is the undulating dynamics of technical and technological innovations.

Thus, modern economic thought has not only recognized the cyclicity of social reproduction and deepened the study of the forms, structures and causes of cycles, but is also strenuously and not unsuccessfully looking for ways and methods to neutralize the negative consequences of the influence of cyclicity on the socio-economic development of society. There has been a convergence of positions in the views of supporters of different approaches to cyclicality.

First, cyclicity is recognized as a multidimensional phenomenon, a number of its forms are of a global nature. Moreover, in peculiar forms, cyclicality also existed in the conditions of a directive-planned economy.

Secondly, cyclicality in general, including its most destructive phase - the economic crisis, is recognized not only and not so much as a social "evil", but rather as a kind of form of ensuring the progressive development of the economy in a market economy. Fluctuations in economic activity are assessed as one of the conditions for renewal and growth.

Thirdly, a characteristic feature of the cyclical nature of social reproduction is that the movement occurs not in a circle, but in a spiral.

Therefore, cyclicity is recognized as a form of progressive development of society.

Fourth, it is necessary to deepen objective knowledge about cycles and their causes and find effective methods and means to mitigate their negative consequences.

Along with this, there is another point of view: economic cycles and crises are the result of the peculiarities of the internal development of each country.

FEDERAL STATE BUDGET EDUCATION

INSTITUTION OF HIGHER PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION

Orenburg State Agrarian University

Institute of Continuing Professional Education

Department of professional

education and applied economics

Course work

discipline: "Macroeconomics"

on the topic: "The essence, types and features of economic crises"

Completed by a student of the 11th group of the 1st year

specialty: Economics

Saktaganova Dina

Checked by: Arinushkina I.S.

Orenburg 2013

Content

Introduction
2.2 Main types of crises
3. Global financial crisis
3.1 The essence of the global financial crisis
3.2 Crisis in selected countries
3.3 Financial and economic crisis of 2008-2010 in Russia
Conclusion
Literature

Introduction

As is known, modern society strives for the continuous improvement of living standards and conditions, which can only be ensured by sustainable economic growth. However, observations show that long-term economic growth is not uniform, but is constantly interrupted by periods economic instability and even crises.

Crises have a negative impact on almost everything and therefore they are trying to fight. But even in such developed countries as the USA, Great Britain, France, Germany and other countries of Western Europe, we do not see much success in the fight against economic crises.

The problem of economic crises is relevant at the present time in our country. Studies of economic crises at the global level, in particular in Russia, should help economists still learn how to get out of them painlessly and quickly. In addition, it is very important to study the causes of economic cycles and find out how the amplitudes of their fluctuations are smoothed out in order to use this knowledge to regulate these cycles so that they do not have a devastating effect on the economy. By learning how to smooth out economic cycles, people will immediately feel the result in the form of the country's economic prosperity and personal well-being. And the main goal of economists is to achieve just such results. But not everything is so simple. Scientists for several centuries have not been able to figure out the exact causes of cycles. At present, there are only theories of the emergence of economic cycles, with which other economists agree or provide their point of view. However, this question remains open to this day.

The famous American economist Alvin Hansen, who devoted a lot of his work to the study of economic cycles, put it this way: “Throughout the history of the literature on economic cycles, various economists have again and again expressed the opinion that the origin of cyclical fluctuations remains an unsolvable mystery”

Macroeconomic equilibrium in practice is rather an amazing accident, an exception that proves the rule: the market economy is unstable. The economic history of the last two centuries gives us a great many examples of this instability. Periods of successful industrial development and general economic prosperity have always been followed by periods of recession, accompanied by a fall in output and unemployment.

All of the above suggests that the problem of economic crises is one of the central ones in economic theory. As you know, since 2008 the whole world has been gripped by the global financial and economic crisis. It struck unexpectedly and still excites the minds of many, since it is still unknown how long it will last and how strong an imprint it will leave on the economies of countries. In doing this course work, I set myself the following goals: to deeply understand the essence of economic crises, the causes of various types of these crises in the United States, Western Europe and in Russia, in their classification according to different criteria as well as the consequences they entail.

The set goals involve the solution of some problems. It is necessary to analyze what measures were taken by the leaders of various states in the fight against this phenomenon, which were correct, and which were doomed to failure. Of course, we will talk about the "Great Depression" of the United States - a crisis whose consequences affected the whole world. This paper will analyze the causes of the global energy crisis of the 70s, which had no less negative significance for the economy of many states than the Great Depression.

Also, of course, a separate chapter will be allocated to the global financial crisis. I would like to analyze in more detail the cause of its occurrence, measures, adopted by states, to save the economies of countries, the consequences, which, unfortunately, are inevitable in any case.

In the process of writing the work, materials from periodicals and economic literature were used. Almost all literature was found by me in in electronic format. The work consists of introduction, three chapters, conclusion, bibliography.

economic crisis global financial

1. History of economic crises

1.1 The history of the concept of "economic crisis"

The concept of crisis has many levels and interpretations. The expression "crisis" comes from the Greek word "crisis", which means "a sentence, a decision on any issue, or in a doubtful situation." It can also mean "exit, resolution of the conflict (to pr. military)". But contemporary meaning words most frequent use finds in Hippocrates and doctors: and the crisis means a decisive phase in the development of the disease. In this sense, we are talking about "crisis" when the disease intensifies or passes into another disease or even ends in death. For example, a laconic formulation is given by Koselleck: a crisis is "a barely measurable turning point at which the solution is either death or life." In the 17th-18th centuries, the concept of crisis began to be applied in relation to the processes taking place in society, such as military, political crises, while using the almost unchanged meaning of the crisis taken from medicine. And finally, in the 19th century, the meaning shifted to economics. "Classic" economic concept crisis, formed at that time, means an undesirable and dramatic phase in the capitalist economic system, characterized by fluctuations and negative phenomena, interference. In this sense, the concept of crisis has long occupied a strong place in the scheme of conjuncture theories in the development of the economy. So Spiethoff's cyclic scheme contains the stages: recession - first rise - second rise - peak - lack of capital - crisis. But this definition does not take into account many different patterns and stages of development and functioning of the economy. Therefore, the "classic" definition of the crisis was replaced by the more ambiguous concept of "economic crisis". According to Mechlap's definition, we are talking about an economic crisis if "an undesirable state of economic relations arises, an unbearably critical situation for large segments of the population and the producing sectors of the economy."

Sombart defines the economic crisis as "an economic negative phenomenon in which a massive danger to economic life and reality arises." In microeconomics, the concept of "enterprise crisis" is used. In a broad sense, this means a process that threatens the existence of an enterprise. The concept of "crisis of an enterprise / crisis in an enterprise" describes in modern economic literature various phenomena in the life of an enterprise, from simple interference in the functioning of an enterprise through various conflicts up to the destruction of an enterprise, which at least for this enterprise can be characterized as catastrophic.

The crisis of the enterprise represents a turning point in the sequence of processes of events and actions. Typical for crisis situation there are two options for getting out of it, or is it the liquidation of the enterprise as an extreme form or the successful overcoming of the crisis. The most complete presentation of the signs of a crisis is given by Wiener and Kaan.

With the help of 12 signs, Wiener and Kaan managed to most fully describe the concept of a crisis: “Crises: they are often a turning point in an evolving change of events and actions; they often form a situation in which urgency plays a huge role; they threaten goals and values; their the consequences are heavy on the future of the participants involved; they consist of events that create new conditions for success; they introduce uncertainty into assessing the situation and developing the necessary alternatives to overcome the crisis; they reduce control over events and their influence; they reduce reaction time to a minimum, cause stress and fear in the participants; the information available to the participants is usually insufficient; they cause a shortage of time available to the participants; they change the relationship between the participants; they increase tension, especially in political crises, that affect nations." These listed features are quite enough to fully characterize the crisis. Economic crises during which there is a forcible restoration of the basic proportions of reproduction violated in the course of the development of the capitalist economy. Economic crises are manifested in the absolute fall in production, reduction capital investments, rising unemployment, an increase in the number of bankruptcies of firms, falling stock prices and other economic shocks.

The cause of economic crises is the main contradiction of capitalism - between the social nature of production and the private capitalist form of appropriation of its results. Division of labor, specialization of production, co-operation in industry bind capitalist enterprises into a single economic mechanism, for the normal functioning of which it is necessary to observe certain proportions on the scale of the entire economy between industries, the production of means of production and the production of consumer goods, between the accumulation of capital and consumption. But the dominance of private property, the anarchy of production that it generates, fierce competition, and the exploitation of labor by capital lead to a constant violation of the proportions of reproduction. Some of these violations are eliminated spontaneously, others - intensify and accumulate.

In the system of disproportions of reproduction arising in the course of economic development, there is always a violation of the proportions between capital accumulation and consumption. The striving of capital for self-expansion, the pursuit of profits, is ensured by the slow growth (and sometimes even reduction) of the incomes and consumption of the working people. The contradiction between production and consumption that arises from this accumulates, reaches an explosive point and, as a rule, becomes the direct cause of economic crises.

1.2 Theory of the development of crises in the global economy

By itself, the economic crisis does not arise from anywhere and does not go anywhere. It is an integral part of what in economic theory is called the cycle. The cyclical nature of economic development has been proven by time. Economic crises of overproduction are organically inherent in capitalism and inevitably accompany it in its historical development. The theory, popular in the middle of our century, about state regulation of the economy in order to prevent crises, which made it possible to carry out short-term smoothing of unfavorable trends, did not live up to expectations in the long term, failing to resist the general trend of cyclical development market economy.

The objective causes of each crisis always lie in the previous development of the economy at other stages of the cycle. The beginning of periodic economic crises was laid by the crisis of 1825 in Great Britain, where capitalist industries developed first of all. relations. The next crisis - the crisis of 1836, which engulfed Great Britain and the USA - 2 countries closely connected economically. In 1847 there was another crisis that affected almost all the countries of Europe. By its nature, it approached the global crisis.

The first world economic crisis took place in 1857 and in almost all countries it was the deepest crisis since they entered the capitalist path of development. In the US, iron production fell by 20% during the crisis, and cotton consumption by 27%. In the UK, shipbuilding was hit the hardest, with output falling 26%. In Germany, the consumption of pig iron was reduced by 25%; in France - by 13% iron smelting and cotton consumption by the same amount; in Russia iron smelting fell by 17%, the output of cotton fabrics - by 14%.

The new economic crisis of 1866 was especially acute in Great Britain, but the rest of the countries were not affected much. The next world crisis began in 1873 with Austria and Germany. It was the longest crisis in the history of capitalism: it ended in 1878, when Great Britain also fell into the orbit of its action. The economic crisis of 1882 affected mainly the USA and France; During the crisis of 1890, the greatest economic upheavals were observed in Germany, the USA and France. The crisis of 1900-1903 became a kind of boundary between the era of free competition capitalism and the era of imperialism. During this crisis, the United States and Germany were particularly affected, and to a lesser extent the United Kingdom and France. It was hard economic situation and Russia, where the economic crisis coincided with a crop failure.

Bourgeois ideologists hoped that with the emergence of capitalist monopolies, systematically organizing production at their enterprises, economic crises would disappear, or at least soften. But that did not happen. The first economic crisis of the era of imperialism - the crisis of 1907 was no less destructive than the previous ones. It particularly affected the US economy. In Art. "Marxism and revisionism" V.I. Lenin wrote that the crisis of 1907 was clear evidence that crises remained inevitable. integral part capitalist system. At the same time, Lenin pointed out that in the era of imperialism "the forms, the sequence, the pattern of individual crises have changed."

The economic crisis of 1920-1921 affected mainly the USA and Great Britain. In 1929, a most severe world economic crisis broke out, which lasted until the middle of 1933 and shook the entire system of capitalism to its foundations. Industrial production during this crisis decreased in the US by 46%, in the UK by 24%, in Germany by 41%, in France by 32%. Stock prices of industrial companies fell in the US by 87%, in the UK by 48%, in Germany by 64%, in France by 60%. Unemployment reached colossal proportions. According to official data, in 1933 there were 30 million unemployed in 32 capitalist countries, including 14 million in the USA. can no longer function normally.

This circumstance required government intervention in the economy, the use of methods of state influence on spontaneous processes in the capitalist economy in order to avoid shocks, which accelerated the development of monopoly capitalism into state-monopoly capitalism. State long-term programming economic growth, carried out in many capitalist countries after the 2nd World War of 1939-1945, as well as operational counter-cyclical regulation, had a certain stabilizing effect on the development of the capitalist countries. However, despite this, the features of the economic crisis were quite clearly manifested during this period in the USA, Great Britain, Canada, Germany, and Italy. In most other capitalist countries, the resolution of the accumulated contradictions of expanded capitalist reproduction occurred in the form of recessions in economic activity with a sharp drop in economic growth rates, with a predominant curtailment of the production of means of production and a slowdown in capital accumulation. During these three decades, economic crises recurred most frequently in the United States - in 1948-1949, 1953-1954, 1957-1958, 1960-1961, 1969-1971 and 1973-1975 - with a drop in industrial production by 17%, 9%, 13, respectively. %, 7%, 8% and 13%.

The first post-war world crisis began at the end of 1957 and continued until the middle of 1958. It engulfed the USA, Great Britain, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands and some other capitalist countries. Industrial production in the developed capitalist countries fell by 4%.

The army of the unemployed has reached almost 10 million people. Relatively stable economic development of a number of capitalist countries in the 50s - 60s. contributed to the emergence of bourgeois and revisionist theories, arguing that there is supposedly the possibility of a crisis-free development of capitalism along the lines of improving methods state regulation economic processes. However, capitalist reality soon disproved these theories. In the early 70s. in the capitalist system, a whole series of violations of the reproduction process arose, which led to the deployment of the next world economic crisis, which began in the United States at the end of 1973, and then in 1974 and 1975 engulfed almost the entire capitalist world. This crisis, in terms of breadth of coverage of countries, duration, depth and destructive power, significantly surpassed the world crisis of 1957-1958 and, in a number of characteristics, approached the crisis of 1929-1933. During the crisis, industrial production declined in the United States, for example, by 13%, in Japan by 20%, in Germany by 22%, in Great Britain by 10%, in France by 13%, in Italy by 14%. Share prices in just one year - from December 1973 to December 1974 - fell in the USA by 33%, in Japan by 17%, in the FRG by 10%, in Great Britain by 56%, in France by 33%, in Italy by 28%. The number of bankruptcies in 1974 compared with 1973 increased by 6% in the USA, by 42% in Japan, by 40% in the FRG, by 47% in Great Britain, and by 27% in France. By mid-1975, the number of completely unemployed in the developed capitalist countries had reached 15 million. In addition, more than 10 million were placed on part-time work or temporarily laid off from enterprises. Falling all over the place real income workers. For example, in the USA total amount real incomes of workers, which in 1950-70 grew by an average of about 3% per year, fell by 6% in the period 1973-75.

The special depth and duration of the world economic crisis of 1973-1975 is explained by the fact that it was intertwined with the strongest inflationary processes in all capitalist countries, with the currency and energy crises, the aggravation of food and environmental issues. The crisis of 1973-1975 demonstrated the limited ability of the bourgeois state to regulate spontaneous economic processes, the movement of the economy in cycles. The inability of the governments of the capitalist countries to prevent the crisis and find a way out of it speaks of the onset in the 70s. the crisis of the state counter-cyclical regulation itself. With a significantly increased level of socialization of production, a wide and deep internationalization of economic life, the forms and methods of counter-cyclical regulation developed in the first years after World War II ceased to be effective in the 70s. The basic contradiction of capitalism again manifested itself in an acute form.

In the mid-70s, the entire capitalist world was engulfed in a protracted and deep cyclical crisis of overproduction, accompanied by specific processes and phenomena. The crisis began to develop in the autumn of 1973 in the USA, Great Britain and Germany. In other countries, it began slightly later. Such a synchronicity of the crisis in the post-war period was observed for the first time. It is due to some new phenomena that appeared in the economy of the capitalist countries in the 70s, primarily the similarity of the technical and economic level of the leading capitalist countries. The crisis of 1973-1975 was the first major post-war crisis for Japan, Germany and a number of other countries. An important feature of the crisis of 1973-1975 is that it was intertwined with many non-cyclical structural crises. These are crises of shortage, not overproduction. They are manifested by a shortage of fuel, raw materials and food on the world market, which entails a significant increase in prices. Prices for raw materials and fuel rose especially rapidly in 1974. This growth went down in history under the name of the new "price revolution".

The crisis of 1973-1975 proceeded in the conditions of the world currency crisis, which manifested itself in a sharp depreciation of the dollar, an increase in gold prices and a general instability in international trade and financial relations. It was this crisis that was first characterized by such a process as slumpflation: a simultaneous decline in industrial production and rising prices (inflation). Economic crises show disparity industrial relations bourgeois society productive forces, reveal the transient nature of the capitalist mode of production, which can develop only at the cost of periodic waste of material and human resources. They convince the working people of the need to fight for a new social order, free from crises, unemployment and exploitation - for socialism.

1.3 Division of the crisis process into stages

The necessary division of the crisis process into different stages is primarily related to determining the point and time for applying measures to influence the crisis, prevent and overcome the crisis. Kristek characterizes the stages of the crisis process in terms of opportunities, potential for overcoming the crisis and early warning about it. The individual stages of the crisis process according to Kristek can be described as follows:

1. Stage: potential crisis. The crisis of an enterprise as a process finds its beginning in the potential phase, i.e. only a possible but not yet real crisis of the enterprise. And due to the lack of reliable symptoms of the crisis, this state of the enterprise is characterized as quasi-normal, i.e. almost like the state in which the enterprise is constantly located, and it gives time the starting point for the emergence of a crisis in the enterprise.

2. Stage: latent / hidden crisis. This phase of the crisis process is characterized by a latent crisis that already exists or is likely to begin soon, the impact of which is not determined by the standard tools available to the enterprise. But the use of special methods of early recognition at this stage makes it possible to actively influence the latent crisis with the help of preventive measures. In general, at this stage, the potential of the enterprise to overcome the crisis, as a rule, is not used in full. The main emphasis here lies in the use of early warning/recognition systems.

3. Stage: acute surmountable crisis. At this stage, the enterprise begins to directly feel the negative impact emanating from the crisis. At the same time, the intensity of real destructive influences directed against the enterprise increases, which causes a sharp shortage, time pressure, urgency / urgency in making decisions. With a further decrease in alternative options for action due to the exhaustion of available time, the requirements for finding effective ways to solve problems (factors to overcome the crisis) increase. At this stage, in order to overcome the crisis, the mobilization of more and more forces of the enterprise is required and the reserves available to overcome the crisis are completely exhausted. At this stage, there is still the possibility of overcoming (curbing) an acute crisis, because the existing capacity to overcome the crisis is sufficient to cope with the crisis. Crisis management requirements are pushed to the limit, and crisis management measures should show their effect in improving the situation in the very short time available.

4. Stage: acute unsurmountable crisis. If it is not possible to curb an acute crisis, then the enterprise enters the last stage of the development of the crisis process, which ends with the liquidation of the enterprise. At this stage, the requirements for overcoming the crisis far exceed the available potential. Overcoming the crisis process is not possible, especially due to the absence or unsuccessful measures, actions, due to the extremely strong pressure of time and due to the increasing intensity of destructive influences directed against the enterprise.

2. Economic crises and their types

2.1 The essence of economic crises. The reasons for their occurrence

A crisis is a sharp violation of the existing balance, due to growing disproportions economic indicators. At this interval, there is a decrease in aggregate demand and, as a result, an excess supply. As demand shrinks, supply issues arise finished products and unemployment is on the rise. There is a reduction in all economic indicators. All types of income, including wages, investments, profits, and prices are beginning to decline at a rapid pace. Because of the paralyzed capital, stored in the form of unrealized goods, there is an acute shortage Money to pay fixed costs, so the loan fee is growing rapidly - the rate loan interest. Stock and bond prices, and other valuable papers begin to decline, so there is a wave of bankruptcy and mass closure of enterprises. The crisis ends with the onset of depression.

Since the production of goods crosses the border set by the narrow limits of the effective demand of the population, the economic crisis takes on the character of a general overproduction of goods and an overaccumulation of capital. It completes one capitalist cycle and clears the way for the next by correcting the disturbed proportions between the accumulation of capital and consumption, the production of means, production and production of commodities. The economic crisis sharply aggravates class contradictions, since the entire burden of the disasters they bring falls mainly on the shoulders of the working people. This causes an intensification of the class struggle, in the course of which the self-consciousness of the working class, its organization and solidarity are growing.

Also, economic crises lead to huge economic losses for society, since during them a significant part of the production apparatus is idle, and hundreds of thousands and even millions of workers lose their jobs. The timing of the onset, depth and duration of the economic crisis depend primarily on the degree of violation of the basic proportions of reproduction during economic upswings. But, in addition, crises are capable of self-generating, since in the course of them there is usually a drop in the purchasing power of workers (due to rising unemployment and reduced working hours), which further complicates the conditions for the sale of goods and prevents the restoration of a temporary balance between capital accumulation and consumption.

Although the cause of economic crises is the same, each crisis has its own specific features, due to the specific historical conditions in which it develops. Their course is affected by the characteristics of the era, and the level of development of capitalism, and the whole complex of economic and political factors operating in a particular country at the time of the development of the crisis.

2.2 Main types of crises

The starting category for understanding economic crises is the concept of the business cycle. The economic cycle can be defined as the time interval between two qualitatively identical states of the economic situation. Economic fluctuations are deviations from a stable state of the most important parameters of the economy - production volume, price levels, employment, etc.

Business cycles consist of four phases:

III phase of the crisis;

III phase of decision (depression);

III phase of recovery;

Ш lifting phase;

Crisis phase:

1. The sale of industrial goods begins to be difficult, and a significant part of the goods are not sold at all.

2. Market prices for goods fall.

3. The mass and rate of profit of firms is decreasing.

4. The investment activity of firms stops for two reasons:

1) It makes no sense to increase the production of goods, since the goods produced earlier have not yet been sold.

2) The mass of profits of firms decreases, and, consequently, the financial possibilities of firms to expand production are reduced.

5. Firms stop repaying loans, and in general, a payment crisis begins. As a result, mass bankruptcies of firms and banks begin, and the interest rate for loans becomes very high, rising from 10-15% to 30-50% per annum. And even under this high stakes percent, banks only lend to people they trust.

6. Significantly increases unemployment.

7. The standard of living of the majority of the country's citizens is noticeably declining.

8. The volume of production of the gross national product is falling sharply.

9. Chronic downtime of production capacities begins (up to 60-70%).

Finally, the economic crisis reaches its nadir, at which gross national output and market prices do not decrease and unemployment does not increase. Stagnation (recession) begins when production stops.

Decision phase (depression):

The market economy independently emerges from the crisis. Firms are trying to get at least some profit for their products by any means. Firms then begin a fundamental micro-restructuring to reduce production costs and earn average profits at these low prices. To do this, firms mobilize all the financial resources they have, take loans from commercial banks at any interest rate and begin to produce products that are in demand on the market, while firms refuse to produce unprofitable types of products. That is, the structure of production of these firms is changing radically, but for all this they need to update their fixed capital. Therefore begin investment activities firms, the demand for investment goods begins to increase, and production in other firms begins to expand along the technological chain, which means that demand increases and the market economy gradually emerges from the depression phase and the third phase begins - the recovery phase. In addition, the crisis clears the market economy of all weak firms, which in normal times were not very profitable.

Recovery phase:

Her feature is a massive renewal of fixed capital.

This phase continues until the pre-crisis level of gross national product production is reached. And when a massive renewal of fixed capital begins and a significant expansion of production, the revival phase passes into a phase of recovery.

Rise phase:

1. The rate of economic growth is increasing and the volume of production of the gross national product is increasing.

2. Trade is brisk and the market prices of many goods are rising.

3. The mass and rate of profit of firms increases.

4. The market economy gradually comes to full employment of all available production capacities.

5. Wage starts to grow.

6. Due to the renewal of fixed capital, the productivity of labor rises, and on this general basis wages also rise.

7. The number of unemployed is decreasing.

According to the criterion of duration in the economic literature, three types of economic cycles are distinguished: large (long waves) - 45-60 years; medium - 7-13 years; small (short) - 3-4 years.

The material basis of small cycles is the mass renewal of durable goods. In small cycles, the crisis is an impetus for the modernization and technical improvement of production, and, consequently, for the expansion of the market. Medium (industrial) cycles are associated with a change in demand for equipment and facilities, and the demand itself, its magnitude and direction depend, in turn, on the introduction of new technical and technological achievements, which is usually carried out in 7-13 years. The material basis of medium cycles is the massive renewal of fixed capital, as a result of which production is improved. However, at some stage, further improvement of production becomes impossible, the old technical system is replaced by another system, the improvement of which takes place over several medium cycles. This technical system also exhausts itself, and a new technological mode of production sets in, the length of which corresponds to a large economic cycle (long wave). In large cycles, crisis processes require the introduction of basic innovations. This stimulates not only the growth of production, but also the restructuring of the entire economy and the mechanism of its functioning. Consequently, large cycles are characterized not only by the expansion of the market, but also by the creation of new markets.

It is generally accepted that there is a relationship between all types of business cycles. Long waves absorb shorter cycles. Each long cycle is formed, first of all, as a result of the interaction of scientific and technological progress, on the one hand, and the entire economic system, on the other hand.

Both small and large cycles in the economies of developed countries move relatively synchronously, forming world cycles. Small cycles are an organic part of large cycles. If they arose in the downward phase of large cycles, then they are characterized by the depth of the crisis, the duration of the depression, and the weakness of the recovery. The upward phase of large cycles is characterized by small cycles with strong ups and weak depressions.

The economic crisis is one of the phases of the cycle, and it can also be classified according to several criteria:

1) According to the nature of the violation of the proportions of reproduction, two types are distinguished:

Ш Crisis of overproduction of goods - the release of an excessive amount of useful things that do not find a market.

Ш Crisis of underproduction of goods - their acute shortage to meet the solvent demand of the population.

In the future, they will be considered in more detail.

2) According to the scale of imbalance in economic systems, crises are usually divided into general ones (crises covering all national economy) and partial (crises covering any one sphere or sector of the economy).

So, financial crisis- deep disorder of public finances. It manifests itself in constant budget deficits(when the state's expenditures significantly exceed its revenues). The extreme manifestation of the financial crisis is the insolvency of the state on foreign loans. For example, during the world economic crisis of 1929-1933. Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy stopped payments on external loans. And the United States in 1931. all payments on foreign debts were deferred for a year.

Monetary Crisis- shock monetary system. There is a sharp reduction in bank loans, a massive withdrawal of deposits and the collapse of banks, the pursuit of cash by the population and entrepreneurs, falling stock and bond prices, as well as bank interest rates.

Currency crisis expressed in the depreciation of the currencies of individual countries (lack of foreign "hard" currencies, the depletion of foreign exchange reserves in banks, the fall in exchange rates).

stock market crisis- a sharp decline in securities prices, a significant reduction in their emissions, deep downturns in activities stock exchange.

Agrarian crisis- this is a sharp deterioration in the sale of agricultural products (falling prices for agricultural products).

Structural crisis due to the violation of normal relations between branches of production (one-sided development of one branch to the detriment of others, the deterioration of the situation in certain types of production). For example, in the mid-1970s, great difficulties arose in supplying Western countries with raw materials and energy carriers.

3) According to the regularity of imbalance in the economy, crises are divided into:

Ш Periodic crises are repeated regularly at some intervals.

Ш Intermediate ones do not give rise to a full business cycle and are interrupted at some stage; are shallower and shorter duration.

Irregular crises have their own specific causes.

Economic crises have two sides. One of them is destructive. It is connected with the decisive elimination of the existing abnormal proportions in the economy. Often large surpluses of goods were savagely destroyed.

The other side is health. It is inevitable, because during a depression the fall in prices makes production unprofitable: it does not give the usual, average profit. The renewal of fixed capital (machinery, equipment) helps to get out of this impasse. This allows you to reduce the cost of manufacturing products, make it sufficiently profitable. As a result, the crisis clears the market economy of all weak firms.

The first type of economic crises are crises of overproduction. The essence of economic crises of overproduction lies in the fact that the basic market equilibrium between supply and demand is disturbed. The supply goes beyond the scope of demand, and if this happens on a tangible scale, then an economic crisis of overproduction of goods begins.

There are several theories according to which economic crises of overproduction appear:

1. According to Marx - the law of surplus value. Its action is explained as follows: firms strive to obtain a large mass and profit margin, for this they try to expand and improve production and produce more and more products. Firms then make a large mass of profit not only by raising market prices for their products, but also by increasing the number of units produced and sold, and each unit of production brings firms some small amount of profit. And then the greater the number of units of output produced, the greater the mass of profits received by firms. This is the way to earn a large amount of profit through turnover, even when market prices and production costs are unchanged. But, by increasing production in order to obtain a greater mass of profit, firms do not look very much at the demand for their products. There is a demand, so firms want to skim the cream off this good economic situation and increase production, and the sale of these products has a rather complex structure: large-scale, medium-scale, small-scale wholesale and retail trade. And now in the retail trade, there are already some hiccups in the sale of products, but the wholesale network is not yet aware of this and continues to purchase products from firms. And now, finally, demand restrictions on manufactured products become clear to all forms of business, but it is already too late, since the supply of goods has gone beyond demand, and an economic crisis of overproduction has begun.

2. Monetary theory of crises. The essence of this theory is that when the economic situation is good and trade is going well, cash flow, directed to the market economy, is growing. In other words, the supply of money for a market economy from central bank, commercial banks and the stock exchange increases, that is, the money supply increases, functioning in a market economy. As a result, credit becomes cheaper, firms take such credit willingly to expand production, and cash flow increases. Commercial banks need to raise the interest rate for loans, as the economic pace is beyond the optimal, and thereby reduce the money supply for a market economy. But to everyone commercial bank in isolation it is difficult to know when he needs to pause, and the cash flow continues to increase, and then the supply goes beyond the limits of demand and the crisis of overproduction begins.

3. The theory of underconsumption or the theory of excessive savings. The essence of this theory is that, for some reason, households begin to save more of their income compared to how much they saved before. Those. under the influence of some rumors, for example, that the ruble exchange rate will soon rise to unprecedented heights, the country's population begins to rapidly "hide money under the pillow." And then some part of what was produced in this year gross national product will not be realized. Excessive saving can also occur due to economic instability in society. As a result, supply goes beyond demand and a crisis of overproduction begins.

4. The theory of overaccumulation of fixed capital. When economic conditions are good in a market economy, firms begin to capitalize more and more of their profits to increase and renew fixed capital. In other words, entrepreneurs strive to scale up production as quickly as possible, buy new equipment and hire more qualified and, accordingly, more expensive specialists. They sometimes even create back-up production capacity, assuming that such economic conjuncture will last for a long time. As a result, surplus fixed capital accumulates, and when the economic situation worsens, the demand for goods falls sharply and the investment activity of firms slows down. It is necessary to reduce the staff, and to exploit the rest at the workplace "in full". As a result, unemployment rises, the demand for consumer goods and the economy begins a crisis of overproduction.

The crisis of overproduction and the mechanisms for overcoming it can be considered on the example of the Great Depression. Until the early 1930s, Western economists were dominated by the idea that economic downturns (crises) are due to random causes, that the mechanism of market self-regulation, in principle, ensures a correspondence between aggregate demand and supply. This means that this mechanism ensures both the automatic exit of the economy from the crisis and its subsequent rise based on the renewal of fixed capital and the liquidation of unprofitable enterprises. It happens in the following way. Morally obsolete equipment in a crisis is not able to ensure a sustainable growth in production and cannot bring profit to an entrepreneur. Therefore, the entrepreneur suffers losses. In order for his business not to fail completely, he seeks by any means to get at least some profit for his products. And then he begins a radical restructuring of his enterprise in order to reduce production costs and make a profit. The entrepreneur mobilizes all the resources he has, takes loans from commercial banks at any interest rate and begins to produce products that are in great demand on the market, while refusing to produce unprofitable types of products. That is, the structure of production of his company is radically changing. But for all this, he needs to renew his fixed capital. Along the technological chain, production in other firms begins to expand, which means that demand increases and the market economy is gradually coming out of the depression phase. Hence the conclusion was made about the undesirability, and even the harm of state intervention in economic life. However, the deep crisis and protracted depression of the 1930s fundamentally contradicted this theory. It became obvious that the mechanism of market self-regulation does not cope with its functions, does not provide an automatic way out of the crisis, which required a transition to active state regulation of the economy.

The theory of state regulation of the market economy was, as is known, built by John Maynard Keynes and his followers. Keynes concluded that a way out of a deep crisis, an increase in production volumes and employment levels is impossible without the active participation of the state, which should not only stimulate a decrease in the discount rate of commercial banks (interest), but also carry out large-scale government purchases in order to increase effective aggregate demand . In addition, the state must pay social benefits to the unemployed, the elderly and other disabled members of society in order to prevent a social explosion. The state must ensure full employment of the population and high growth in production. The most far-sighted statesmen of the Western countries come to the fundamental conclusion that market mechanism should be supplemented by a mechanism of direct state regulation of the economy.

In the first quarter of the 20th century, the United States was among the leading states in the world and the most prosperous in economic terms country. With the transition of industrial capitalism to monopolistic capitalism, the center of world economic development moved from Europe to North America. The United States developed the fastest and produced the most. Their share in world production has been constantly increasing. The position of the United States was strengthened even more strongly after the First World War, in particular due to significant profits from the supply of weapons and ammunition to the Entente countries. grew fast industrial production, fixed capital intensively expanded, exports increased. Economic successes were the reasons for the birth of the theory of the eternal prosperity of this state. As it turned out later, it was a "great illusion." In 1929 The world economic crisis broke out, which lasted until 1933. inclusive and most of all struck the United States.

The next type of economic crisis is the crisis of underproduction. The crisis of underproduction of goods is an acute shortage of goods to meet the solvent demand of the population. Crises of underproduction are caused by the following reasons:

1. Economic. The commodity and food crises of the 1970s disrupted the proportions of reproduction in Western countries.

2. Natural. These are droughts, floods, crop failures.

3. Social. These are wars and lack of planning in a command economy. For example, the USSR during its existence completely monopolized the economy and based it on a constant shortage of means of production for civilian sectors of the economy and consumer goods. The slow growth in the number of commodities over six decades has led to the fact that they began to account for only 25% of all industrial output, and the rest accounted for military products (in highly developed countries, commodities account for 35-45% of production). Economic policy was aimed at strengthening material incentives for employees and social payments to the population. In 1990 growth money supply in society six times ahead of the increase in domestic national product.

In more detail, the crisis of underproduction and the mechanisms for overcoming it can be considered on the example of the global energy crisis.

The stability of the oil market, virtually unshakable for decades, faltered noticeably in February 1971, when the Persian Gulf states for the first time achieved a significant increase in oil prices as part of an OPEC agreement with oil producers.

Note - OPEC is an international intergovernmental organization (also called a cartel) created by oil-producing powers to stabilize oil prices.

The leading countries recovered faster than others from the painful blow. Another thing is more important here: the oil shock caused, first of all, in the mature market economy of these countries, the emergence and development of new macroeconomic trends, which in turn led to large and progressive structural changes in the entire world economy. The so-called post-industrial development was a direct result of these changes. The explosive expansion of information technology would be unthinkable without the strategic redeployment of global investment resources in favor of the least energy-intensive areas and investment objects.

Note - Economic expansion refers to the violent or non-violent expansion of spheres of influence in the field of the economy.

In other words, the modern post-industrial economy is largely a product of the energy crisis of the 1970s, which hit, first of all, traditional energy-intensive industries and made investments in the development of new, less costly industries more efficient. As for the “old” industries, here the crisis stimulated the development and implementation of energy-saving technologies on an unprecedented scale. Another consequence of the oil crisis of the 1970s was the gradual refusal of some developed Western countries from the strategic import of liquid fuel due to the development of their own import-substituting oil production. The hydrocarbon resources of the North Sea shelf were mostly explored even before the crisis, but their industrial exploitation became feasible only in new areas. economic conditions, which was not slow to take advantage of the oilmen of Britain and Norway, providing their countries with energy independence. In other developed countries of Europe, the fuel crisis has caused a restructuring of their energy balances. Thus, in Denmark and Holland, the consumption of natural gas produced on the coastal shelf of these countries grew at a faster pace, and the share of wind power capacities in the production of electricity grew.

For less developed countries that do not have their own oil, the consequences of the crisis were more severe. They bought fuel at new prices and were forced to turn to external sources of financing. Former seller countries also suffered. Since the main export of these countries is oil, and after the rise in prices and the introduction of the embargo, the level of oil sales fell, the export opportunities of these states fell sharply.

Although during the last three decades the prices of liquid fuels have not only increased, but also decreased from time to time, their level since then has not come close to the pre-crisis level, invariably exceeding it many times over. Therefore, it is permissible to consider that the oil shock of 1973 at one time had a multidimensional revolutionary impact on the world economy and, in particular, on the Soviet economy. Developed countries have switched to energy conservation policy, which after 25 years has yielded results: reduction of energy intensity gross product 20 - 30% of the level of the early 70s. In these countries, even now it is considered that the limit in energy saving has not been reached, and the task of efficient use energy resources is long-term. It can be seen that the 8-year energy saving program of the Russian Federation includes approximately the same rates achieved developed countries in my time.

The concept of "crisis". Types of crises

AT modern science the concept of "crisis" means the exacerbation of contradictions in the social, political or economic environment threatening the integrity and viability of the system as a whole. Scientists divide the types of crises into different categories and try to identify signs of impending danger in advance. The impending process can be predicted to prevent negative consequences.

In modern science, in a large-scale manifestation, these phenomena can be local and general. Local ones act on any part of the socio-economic system, general ones - affect the system as a whole.

The existing main types of crises can be divided by problem. Macrocrises are large volumes of problems that have arisen due to existing contradictions. The microcrisis covers only individual problems, without affecting the viability of the system as a whole.

These negative processes can be divided into social and natural. The first types of environmental crises arise as a result of the activities of human society, the second reflect a change in nature caused by human intervention.

Categories of crises

According to the structural component, the types of crises can be divided into:

Features of economic crises

Economic theory distinguish between the following types of crises:

Features of financial crises

Any economic crisis inevitably entails a decrease in efficiency financial activities countries. Under certain conditions, financial crises can arise, which have serious consequences both for the internal policy of the state and for its external political realities. What financial processes are the most serious?

General features of the crisis

A feature of any crisis is that it can quickly develop from a local or microeconomic one into a larger one or even a global one. This happens because any system synchronizes and interacts with all its elements, and the problems of one segment cannot be solved without looking at the consequences for the system as a whole. But this problem arises in the absence of crisis management.

Pseudocrises

There are times when a pseudo-crisis can be provoked - a focus of instability in a healthy system. This phenomenon can be provoked in order to cover the active actions of market participants or to force out competitors.

Crisis Diagnostics

Although crises are divided into expected and sudden, in most cases their occurrence can be calculated. To do this, there are methods for recognizing such processes and identifying their causes.

At the first stage, it is established what types of crises can occur, and what kind they will belong to. In the scientific world, this stage is called the qualitative identification of the object of study. During this period, all known parameters of the observed phenomenon are determined, which have common features with any studied set of objects. For example, the diagnosis of any macroeconomic crisis will be based on what type of economy is developed in a given country - a developed industrial one or more suitable for a state with transition economy. If the pre-crisis situation is assessed on a smaller scale, the type of ownership of the object is determined - private, state, joint-stock, etc.

The second stage is required to identify differences between the checked object and similar structures of its class. This is done through a detailed comparison of the underlying parameters with the observables. Based on the deviations, the predictive development of the situation is formed.

Consequences of crises

With all their undesirable consequences, crises play the role of natural selection in the economic life of the region. This phenomenon performs three important functions:

destructive function. Responsible for the qualitative transformation or radical elimination of all inefficient or obsolete elements of the system.
The creative function is responsible for creating conditions for the development of weak and small elements of the future new cycle.
The hereditary function assumes responsibility for the inheritance of those features of the old cycle that accumulate and pass into the next stage of development. Sometimes these features can be modified or have new features or options.

conclusions

Therefore, various types of crises are a necessary element of progress and are an important step towards the renewal of any development system.

Causes of economic crises.

The cause of a crisis situation in the activities of the enterprise can be external or internal factors:

external factors: type of economic system; unbalanced credit policy or its complete absence; the structure of the needs of the population; the level of income and savings of the population; the value of effective demand of customers-enterprises; phase of the economic cycle; political and legal instability and economic uncertainty of state regulation; rate and size of inflation; scientific and technical and information development production cycle; level of culture of society; international competition;

internal: erroneous market philosophy of the firm; absence or incorrect principles of its operation; irrational use of resources and low quality of products; low level of management and marketing; discrepancy between the level of managerial and organizational cultures of the enterprise and its technological structure.

These reasons are not the immediate causes of a crisis at a particular stage of the life cycle of an enterprise, and even more so its bankruptcy. However, they influence the development of factors that worsen the financial, economic and economic condition of the enterprise. The causes of the crisis and bankruptcy of enterprises are always due to the ill-conceived management system and management errors.

Phases of the cycle and their manifestation.

Exist business cycle phases; for example, consider the following five-phase loop diagram:

a) stable development ending in a crisis; consequently, there is a latent, hidden period when the prerequisites for a crisis are brewing, but have not yet broken out;

b) the decline in production and the deterioration of economic indicators - this is a period of collapse, the rapid aggravation of all contradictions, a sharp deterioration in many economic indicators. The obsolete elements of the system are being destroyed or transformed, the elements of the next system, representing the future, are gaining strength and fighting;

c) depression - a short-term balance of the old and new systems, when the economic situation is no longer worsening, but not improving either;

d) revival - the beginning of an accelerated spread of elements of the new system, the expansion of production, a decrease in unemployment, an improvement in economic dynamics;

e) a rapid rise, the triumph of a new cycle, which becomes predominant, normal (ceases to be new); a period of relative stabilization, a new stable level of equilibrium, it ends with another crisis;

Types of economic crises and their dynamics.

Crisis is an economic imbalance, which, in addition to the subject that caused this crisis, is reflected in other economic entities.

Crises are regular (cyclical), or periodic, which are repeated with a certain pattern, and irregular. Regular crises of overproduction give rise to a new cycle, during which the economy successively passes through four phases and prepares the basis for the next crisis. They are characterized by the fact that they cover all spheres of the economy, reaching great depth and duration. Irregular economic crises include intermediate, partial, sectoral and structural ones. The intermediate crisis does not give rise to a new cycle, but interrupts for a certain time the course of the recovery or recovery phase. It is less deep and less long in comparison with periodic and, as a rule, has a local character.

A partial crisis differs from an intermediate one in that it does not cover the entire economy, but any sphere of social reproduction.

The sectoral crisis covers one of the sectors of the national economy. The reason for it can be a variety of reasons. Among them: disproportions in the development of the industry, restructuring, overproduction. Such crises are national and international.

Structural crisis is a violation of the law of proportional development of social production. This is manifested in serious disproportions between industries, on the one hand, and the output of the most important types of products in physical terms, necessary for balanced development, on the other.

Before the onset of the next periodic crisis, production reaches its highest high level behind which overproduction is already hidden. Sales opportunities still seem bright, banks continue to lend to industry and trade, thereby contributing to the expansion of production and increase in supply. Imagine that a bridge was blown up on a freeway and the front cars stopped in front of an abyss, but those following them, suspecting nothing, roll and roll until, finally, the traffic safety service stops traffic on this highway at some point. The longer the “cork” is formed, the more difficult it is to “dissolve” it.

Analytical basis of state regulation of crisis situations.

In areas of particular importance for economic and social life, the state applies special measures to prevent crises.

These measures can be divided into two groups:

financial support

special administration

Such preventive measures make it possible to minimize the risks of bankruptcy of socially significant enterprises, as well as mitigate the negative consequences of such bankruptcy. Socially significant enterprises include city-forming and strategic enterprises, banks, insurance and financial companies, agricultural enterprises, as well as natural monopolies.

Main forms of financial support:

target financing on a returnable and irrevocable basis;

subsidizing interest rate on credit;

provision of loan guarantees;

tax incentives;

tax credit.

The special administration of the activities of enterprises is expressed in the following forms:

introduction of additional reporting forms;

establishment of mandatory standards;

licensing;

compulsory liability insurance;

legislative restriction of tariffs;

other legal restrictions.

The role of the state in anti-crisis management.

The state policy in regulating crisis situations is to minimize the economic and social damage caused by the bankruptcy of an organization. At the same time, it is important to note that the ruin of inefficient enterprises is the most important factor in the market economy, ensuring its growth and development.

The anti-crisis policy of the state is implemented at three levels:

maintaining the competitiveness of the main sectors of the national economy;

prevention and prevention of crises in economically - and socially - significant areas, such as banking business or the public transport sector;

reduction of the negative consequences of the bankruptcy of the enterprise, the fullest possible satisfaction of the interests of its employees and creditors.

Types of state regulation of crisis situations.

Anti-crisis regulation- This is a government policy aimed at protecting enterprises from crisis situations and preventing their bankruptcy. It is carried out at the micro - and macro level and is a system. regulation can be regulated legislation and creative.

Anti-crisis regulation requires a reliable data base, the creation of a specific research methodology, the involvement of highly qualified specialists, research, as well as the development, adoption and implementation of measures that stabilize the state of the economy. In this direction, state bodies carry out regulation of the following types:

legal- creation legal basis anti-crisis regulation, conducting an examination to identify cases of fictitious and deliberate bankruptcy;

methodical- methodological support for monitoring the state of enterprises, preventing their bankruptcy, judicial procedures, as well as reorganization in the event of an insolvency fact;

informational- accounting and analysis of the solvency of large, as well as economically and socially significant enterprises;

economic and administrative- application of effective measures and methods of influencing the economy in order to stabilize it;

organizational- creation of conditions for a civilized resolution of all disputes regarding the insolvency of the debtor;

social- social protection of employees of a bankrupt enterprise, expressed in the creation of jobs for them, their retraining, payment of benefits;

personnel- search and training of specialists in anti-crisis management of enterprises, improving their skills;

ecological- protection of the natural environment from pollution as a result of the enterprise's activities.

In order to stabilize the economy, the following methods of state influence on the state of enterprises: economic - taxes, redistribution of income and resources, pricing, credit and financial mechanisms, privatization, debt restructuring, etc.; administrative - adoption and adjustment of the legislation and control of its observance.

The mechanism of state power and crises of the control system.

State power, being in its essence social, public, public, went along with society a difficult path of development, taking various forms. In the period of its inception, it was anonymous, dispersed among members of the clan and tribe, manifested itself in the totality of beliefs and customs, regulating human behavior. Later, it took the form of a personified (individualized) power of leaders, elders, kings, emperors, and, finally, institutionalized - based on the institutions of power.

A public administration body is a structure established in accordance with the established (official, legal) procedure, performing on behalf of the state any one or more of its functions in accordance with its special public purpose, having organizational unity, its own competence (a range of issues that fall within its jurisdiction ), powers (a set of rights and obligations) that he must implement and beyond which he must not go in his activities. A body of state administration may be one official or a well-organized group of officials authorized by the state to implement power-management functions.

The essence of a public administration body can be defined as an integral set of constituent components: political (state-imperious nature), sociological (purpose - to solve matters of general significance, focus on the needs and interests of society), legal (adopts regulations, legal acts, carries out law enforcement, law enforcement activities) , administrative and managerial (performs the functions of managing the society).

Thus, state power and management as a way of its implementation is:

1) the right, opportunity and ability of the state through government bodies and officials to influence the destinies, relationships and activities of people;

2) a system of relevant institutions and government bodies that make power decisions;

3) the activities of persons vested with appropriate powers of authority.

The essential features of state power and the system of state administration are legitimacy, i.e. recognition by society of their legitimacy and legitimacy; official character, regulated by the Constitution and laws; structuredness of the apparatus of power, i.e. the presence of specially created and interacting institutions of power; the binding nature of its decisions; the existence of the right to legitimate coercion and the use of special services; the ability to cancel resolutions and decisions of non-state political organizations in the manner prescribed by law; possession of exclusive rights, such as, for example, the legal withdrawal of part of the income of citizens and organizations through taxation.

The main aspects that determine the state of state power and the system of public administration are the following:

1) to what extent and in what way the state power in the process of its implementation takes into account and embodies the common interests of citizens;

2) how is the practical management of social processes, ensuring the development of society;

3) the more expectations, requests and needs are satisfied, the wider the social base, the deeper and more stable the trust in power;

4) on the contrary, the more disappointments there are in the post-election policy of state power, the more the social base and trust in it are reduced, and there may come a moment when it will lose the support of a part of the voters, whose will served as the primary source of power, and this is the basis for the destabilization of public administration, the crisis state power.

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Coursework >> Economic theory

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