State regulation of the economy is a system of economic, political, legal measures by which the state intervenes in economic processes in order to achieve stable development, as well as adapt the economic system to constantly changing conditions.
State regulation of crisis situations is aimed at preventing systemic crises in the markets and providing guarantees for the maximum return of funds to creditors of a bankrupt enterprise.
The entire set of norms through which state regulation is carried out can be divided into the following groups: system-wide norms that orient an enterprise towards self-organization; special norms - for the spheres of the market economy; target norms - in accordance with the problems of investment activity being solved.
In a crisis, there is an increasing need to combine market mechanisms with state regulation of socio-economic processes at all levels - from federal to municipal. The main directions of state regulation of the market economy: Administrative and legal regulation; Management of the most important areas of life; State programs and government orders; financial policy; monetary policy; Social politics. State regulation of the economy is a system of economic, political, legal measures by which the state intervenes in economic processes in order to achieve stable development, as well as adapt the economic system to constantly changing conditions. The need for state regulation of the economy is generated by two groups of reasons. The first is related to the need to satisfy collective and public interests. The second is due to the objectively arising contradictions of social reproduction and the need to resolve them. The economy is objectively characterized by cyclical development, one of the main phases of which are crises. By intervening in the economy, the state mitigates the negative consequences of crises and accelerates the way out of them. The displacement of competition undermines the market-regulating role of the laws of supply and demand. Therefore, the state becomes the regulator of market processes, counteracting monopoly and encouraging competition. Finally, the market sharply differentiates the incomes of economic participants, which causes social tension. The state is forced to intervene in the process of income distribution, providing support through taxes to the poor in society.
Straight forms government intervention- this is the direct impact of the state on aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Among them, the most important are the following. Creation of a state sectors in the economy and the organization of production and sale of goods and services in it. The volume of this production is directly reflected in the economic dynamics. Under different economic conditions, the government expands or shrinks the public sector. Thus, in a crisis, the state creates new facilities, reconstructs old enterprises, allocates funds for the renewal of fixed capital. In addition, the expansion of the public sector is also the creation of new jobs. Redistribution of income. The modern state concentrates in its hands up to 50% of the national income. A significant part of it is purposefully returned to economic entities. For this, various channels are used: subsidies, payment for research and development, payment of interest on securities, unemployment benefits, etc. Economy programming. State economic programs are divided into general economic programs (covering the entire economy), target programs (focused on solving specific economic problems, for example, the development of the food complex) and emergency programs (adopted in critical situations: in conditions of crises, mass unemployment, inflation, natural disasters). State economic programs are indicative; are optional for all economic entities. Therefore, they are generally not implemented even in the public sector (which is decentralized in a market economy). With the help of programming, the state achieves serious structural changes. As a rule, the priority directions provided by the program are financed from the budget. Indirect forms of government intervention- this is the indirect impact of the state on aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Among them, the most important are the following: 1. Credit and financial system; 2. Tax system. Credit and financial system, using the discount rate, open market operations and the required reserve system. The discount rate is the interest on loans that the central bank makes to commercial banks. Depending on the state of the economy, the state pursues a policy of "expensive" (the rate is raised) or "cheap" (the rate is lowered) money, restraining or stimulating economic growth. Open market operations are the buying and selling of government securities. By raising or lowering the yield on "its" securities, the state either increases the total amount of money employed in production or reduces it. Another instrument of indirect regulation of the economy is the tax system. By increasing or decreasing the tax rate, the state affects the amount of income used in production. In addition, many taxes are a pricing factor. Therefore, their change is directly reflected in the prices of goods and services.
The source of any production of goods are resources. Each produced unit of goods is the embodiment of a certain part of the resources used. Their monetary expression is called "production costs" - what it costs to produce a given product for the owner of the resources. They form the basis of the price of the goods and are reimbursed with its sale. However, what it costs to produce a commodity for the owner does not always coincide with what it costs to produce a commodity for society. The fact is that the result of the activities of many industries is not only the creation of goods and services, but also a number of negative side effects (in the theory of a market economy, they are called "external effects"). So, almost all enterprises have waste that pollute the environment. The economic feature of these effects is that they are "free" for the producer of goods: they are not included in production costs. Consequently, the market price of this commodity will be much less than its price to society. Thus, "externalities" are by-products of production that negatively affect a "third party" that is not directly involved in this production and is not reflected in the price of the goods. Therefore, the state intervenes in the economy, forcing the perpetrators to pay these costs as well. For these purposes, the state uses both economic and administrative ones: it makes firms pay for the damage caused to nature and workers, determines the maximum amount of emissions that nature can "recycle" without harming it, etc. The state policy of redistribution of income includes the taxation of income, implementation of social payments, as well as state procurement of goods and services. By this, the state determines the amount of income that allows for consumption and savings, therefore, in this case, the objects of state regulation are the personal monetary income of the population and prices for goods and services. Target public policy Income - reducing the fall in real incomes and reducing the degree of inequality in the distribution of income. The main instruments of state income policy are: 1) taxes, 2) transfer payments, 3) guaranteed minimum wages, 4) public procurement of goods and services. Taxes reduce disposable income and therefore reduce consumer spending, which in turn reduces the demand for goods and, ultimately, leads to a reduction in output. On the other hand, an increase in taxes increases the revenue side of the budget, thereby contributing to a reduction in budget deficit. At present, in all developed countries Ah, there is antimonopoly legislation, which, although it is presented under various names, but its essence is the same - support for competition and restriction of monopolization. Antimonopoly laws are laws that prohibit agreements and actions aimed at restricting competition: market division, vertical or horizontal price fixing, discrimination in trade. As for the pricing methodology, the procedure for their regulation, in most countries, certain pricing rules are used as a general tactic, administrative and legal methods that
developed by government agencies. The latter assume the responsibility of regulating and imposing specific prices for goods and services that are important for the national economy. Ways and methods of state influence on prices in different countries with a market economy are not the same, which depends on national, climatic, political, resource and other factors that determine the country's position in the global division of labor.
Students, graduate students, young scientists who use the knowledge base in their studies and work will be very grateful to you.
Hosted at http://www.allbest.ru/
Russian International Academy of Tourism
Faculty: Tourism Management
Department: Management and Information Technology
COURSE WORK
on academic discipline"Crisis management"
topic: State regulation of a crisis situation
Student of the course 3MT6 group
Shanaeva Anastasia Evgenievna
INTRODUCTION
1. Theoretical and methodological foundations for studying the problems of state regulation of crisis situations
1.1. The concept of crisis, analysis of types of crisis and crisis situations
1.2 The system of state regulation of crisis situations
2. TYPES OF STATE REGULATION OF CRISIS SITUATIONS
2.1. Main processes of state regulation
3. MECHANISMS OF STATE REGULATION UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS
3.1 Main problems of crisis management in 2008-2009
3.2 Analysis of government work to manage the 2008-2009 crisis
CONCLUSION
BIBLIOGRAPHY
INTRODUCTION
The state is a public institution created and supported through the purposeful activities of people living in a certain territory in order to express and implement their will (interests), as well as to coordinate and harmonize the interactions of all citizens (social groups) in the economic, social and political spheres of life.
At the turn of the XX-XXI centuries, the functions of the state were subjected to transformations. In fact, state regulation acts as an organizing principle, a kind of control parameter. Restoring by its actions the feedback mechanism that has been violated for some reason, the state creates its additional links, thus fulfilling its role in the process of self-organization of complex systems.
If necessary, it can take on some of the functions of economic agents. But, in essence, in this case, too, it performs the same role - it creates the conditions for the economy to perform its functions in society.
Since the end of 2008 - beginning of 2009, Russia began to feel the consequences of the global economic crisis in full, while crawling into a recession - one of the last economically developed countries. The crisis is accompanied by a set of devaluation processes, the curtailment of social programs and guarantees, and finally, mass layoffs and layoffs of workers, whose number, according to official data alone, reached more than 6 million economically active population at the end of 2008.
In the context of the global economic crisis, the role and importance of state regulation of crisis situations is steadily increasing. The state must pursue a reasonable and balanced monetary and financial policy, the state must help overcome the crisis in the real sector of the economy, support socially unprotected citizens affected by the global economic crisis.
1. THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL BASES FOR STUDYING THE PROBLEMS OF STATE REGULATION OF CRISIS SITUATIONS
In the life of an enterprise, crises or the threat of crises are a constant phenomenon. The root cause and possibility of economic crises is the gap between the production and consumption of goods.
R.R. Akhmetov notes that "the essence of the economic crisis is manifested in the overproduction of goods in relation to the solvent aggregate demand, in violation of the conditions for the reproduction of social capital, in mass bankruptcies of firms, rising unemployment and other socio-economic shocks."
The first economic crisis occurred in England in 1825, where by that time capitalism had become the dominant system. The next crisis, which erupted in 1836, engulfed Great Britain and the United States. The crisis of 1847 affected almost all the countries of Europe. The first world economic crisis dates back to 1857. It was the deepest crisis since the start of capitalist development. Crisis of 1873-1878 covered most European countries and the United States and surpassed all previous ones in its duration. World economic crises occurred in 1900-1903, 1907, 1920, but none of them could be compared with the world crisis of 1929-1933. It lasted more than four years and covered the entire capitalist world and all sectors of the economy.
After this crisis, the depression was protracted. Following some revival in 1937, a new crisis set in, characterized by the fact that it was not preceded by a phase of recovery. New crisis although it was weaker than the previous one, it proceeded very sharply. The total volume of industrial production in the capitalist world decreased by 11%, and in the USA - by 21%, the production of cars decreased by 40%. The development and aggravation of this crisis was interrupted by the Second World War of 1939-1945.
After the Second World War in 1948-1949. a local economic crisis broke out that swept the United States and Canada. In the United States, the volume of industrial output then fell by 18.2%, in Canada by 12%, while the total volume of industrial production in the developed capitalist countries fell by 6%. Economic crises in the capitalist countries also occurred in 1953-1954 and 1957-1958. But the deepest in the post-war period was the economic crisis of 1973-1975. E.A. Utkin notes that "it spread to all capitalist countries and was distinguished by a high level of inflation." A characteristic feature of this crisis was its intertwining with deep structural crises that hit the most important areas of production - energy, raw materials industries, including agriculture, as well as the monetary system.
The points of view of various scientists on the causes of economic crises are very contradictory. The fundamental difference between K. Marx's position on this issue is that he saw the reasons for the cyclical nature of capitalist reproduction in the very nature of capitalism, directly in the contradiction between the social nature of production and the private nature of the appropriation of its results.
Representatives of the neoclassical and liberal schools put forward various causes of economic crises without linking them to the nature of capitalism. Many of them consider the underconsumption of the population, causing overproduction, to be the cause of crises. But the emerging lack of consumption (solvency) is more a consequence than a cause of crises.
To date, economic science has developed a number of different theories explaining the reasons for economic cycles and crises. P. Samuelson, for example, notes the following as the most famous theories of cycles and crises in his book "Economics":
Monetary theory, which explains the causes of the cycle by expansion (contraction) of bank credit;
The theory of innovation, which explains the economic cycle by the use of important innovations in production;
A psychological theory that interprets the cycle as a consequence of waves of pessimistic and optimistic mood covering the population;
The theory of underconsumption, which sees the cause of the cycle as too much of the income going to rich and thrifty people compared to what can be invested;
The overinvestment theory, whose proponents believe that recessions are caused by overinvestment rather than underinvestment;
The theory of sunspots - weather - harvest.
When evaluating the views of economists on crises and their causes, it should be noted that these views have been transformed over time along with changes in the socio-economic reality itself. With this in mind, the point of view of a number of Russian economists deserves attention, who distinguish three stages in the development of views on cyclicality in crisis phenomena.
The first stage covers the period from the beginning of the XVIII century. until the mid 30s. 20th century During this period, judgments prevailed that economic crises were either impossible at all under capitalism, or that they were only of an accidental nature, and that the system of free competition was capable of overcoming them on its own.
The second stage covers the period from the mid-1930s to the mid-1960s. 20th century The selection of this period is connected with the works of J. M. Keynes, and above all with his conclusion that economic crises (more precisely, depression, stagnation) are inevitable under classical capitalism and follow from the nature of the market inherent in it. Keynes was one of the first Western economists to explicitly state that the capitalist market includes various manifestations of monopoly and is combined with state regulation, which makes prices and wages inflexible. As a fundamentally necessary means of smoothing out the problems of crisis and unemployment, Keynes put forward the idea of ensuring state intervention in the economy in order to stimulate effective aggregate demand. His merits in the study of the cyclicity factor should also include the theory of the multiplier developed by him, which later became widely used in the analysis of the causes of cyclicality.
The third stage in the study of the causes of economic cycles is the period from the mid-1960s to the mid-1960s. until now. During this period, firstly, special attention was paid to the distinction between exogenous (internal) and endogenous (external) reasons for the cyclical nature of the market economy, and it was endogenous factors that became the object of close study. Secondly, the position of a number of specialists has been determined, according to which the state in developed countries does not always strive for anti-crisis regulation, smoothing out cyclical fluctuations and stabilizing the economic balance, but often pursues the so-called pro-cyclical policy, that is, it provokes and supports cyclicality.
A.I. Dudnik notes that "studies of the nature of reproduction cycles under the conditions of state regulation of the economy contributed to the development of new views and concepts on this issue." Among them are the concepts of "equilibrium business cycle" and "political business cycle".
The first reflects the development of the ideas of monetarism. According to this concept, the state, along with many of its inherent functions, plays the role of a kind of generator of monetary "shocks" that bring the economic system out of equilibrium and thus support cyclical fluctuations in social reproduction.
The second concept ("political business cycle") is based on the fact that the relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate is determined by the Phillips curve, i.e. there is an inverse relationship between these values: the lower the unemployment rate, the faster prices rise. Its supporters believe that the economic situation within the country significantly affects the popularity of the ruling party.
For the enterprise, there are external and internal causes of the crisis. External causes are those on which the enterprise cannot influence, or this impact may be insignificant. External causes include international and national factors.
International factors are formed under the influence of general economic reasons (economic cyclical development of leading countries, the state of the world financial system, characterized by the policy of international banks), stability international trade, which, in turn, depends on the concluded intergovernmental treaties and agreements (on the creation of free enterprise zones, border trade, customs tariffs and duties), on international competition (an increase in the market share of competing firms due to the use of higher technologies or cheaper labor ).
National factors may be due to reasons of a political, economic-geographical, cultural and scientific-technical nature.
Thus, political stability and the direction of the internal policy of the state, implemented through law, are expressed in relation to entrepreneurial activity"and the principles of state regulation of the economy, as well as in relation to forms of ownership, measures to protect the rights of consumers and entrepreneurs. All this is accumulated in legislative norms, acts that determine the activities of enterprises.
Economic and geographical factors are characterized by the size and structure of needs, and under certain economic conditions, by the effective demand of the population. They can also include the level of income and savings of the population, i.e. purchasing power, price level, the possibility of obtaining a loan, which significantly affect entrepreneurial activity, the phase of the economic cycle in which the national economy is located. A drop in demand, for example, characteristic of the corresponding phase of economic development, leads to increased competition, ruin or takeover of a bankrupt enterprise.
Factors of a cultural nature are manifested in habits, consumption norms and preferences for some goods over others.
Crises are regular (cyclical), or periodic, which are repeated with a certain pattern, and irregular.
Regular crises of overproduction give rise to a new cycle, during which the economy successively passes through four phases and prepares the basis for the subsequent crisis. They are characterized by the fact that they cover all spheres of the economy, reaching great depth and duration.
To irregular economic crises include intermediate, partial, sectoral and structural crises. The intermediate crisis does not give rise to a new cycle, but interrupts for some time the course of the boom or recovery phase. It is less deep and less long in comparison with periodic and, as a rule, has a local character. Similar crises took place in the capitalist countries in 1924 and 1927, and in 1953-1954 and 1960-1961. gg. such crises only affected the US and Canada.
A partial crisis differs from an intermediate one in that it does not cover the entire economy, but any sphere of social reproduction. A typical example is the banking crisis in Germany in 1932.
The industry crisis covers one of the industries National economy. The reason for it can be a variety of reasons. Among them: disproportions in the development of the industry, restructuring, overproduction. Such crises are national and international. The latter include the crisis of world shipping in 1958-1962. and the crisis in the textile industry in 1977.
Structural crisis is a violation of the law of proportional development of social production. This is manifested in serious disproportions between industries, on the one hand, and the output of the most important types of products in physical terms, necessary for a balanced development of the economy, on the other. In the 1970s the economy of the West was paralyzed by the energy, raw materials, and food crises.
Before the onset of the next periodic crisis, production reaches its highest level, behind which overproduction and an increase in supply are already hidden.
In this regard, naturally, questions arise whether it is possible to predict the economic future, how to save an enterprise or household from collapse, what is the role of the state in this case, what constitutes the mechanism of state regulation, etc.
From the perspective of regulation theory, crises can be classified as follows:
? crisis as a result" external" shock. In this sense, a crisis is understood as a situation when the continuation of the economic development of a particular geographical community is blocked due to a lack of resources associated with natural or economic disasters;
? cyclical crises. Here, the crisis is a phase of elimination of stresses and imbalances that have accumulated during the rise in economic mechanisms and social processes;
? structural (big) crisis. Any instance of the contradictory nature of long-term reproduction;
? crisis of the regulatory system. The situation when the mechanisms associated with the existing system of regulation are unable to change unfavorable market processes, although the accumulation regime remains quite viable;
? crisis of the mode of production. This crisis is characterized by an aggravation of the contradictions that develop in the depths of the most important institutional forms - the forms that determine the regime of accumulation. In the course of a crisis, the regularities on which the organization of production is based, the prospects for the profitable use of capital, the distribution of value and the structure of social demand turn out to be unviable. This is a situation when the entire dynamics of the reproduction of this particular economy is blocked.
In this way, a crisis -- this is an extreme exacerbation of contradictions in the socio-economic system (organization), threatening its viability in the environment. The causes of the crisis may be different. They are divided into objective, related to the needs of modernization and restructuring, and subjective, reflecting mistakes and voluntarism in management, as well as natural ones.
A crisis is a severe transitional state of the economy. On the one hand, the crisis acts as a brake on economic development, which is expressed in falling prices, stock prices, bank interest, in reducing production, reducing employment, and falling profitability of enterprises. On the other hand, during a crisis, the foundations are laid for restoring the violated laws of economic movement and its further development. At the same time, spontaneous market mechanism uses crisis parameters to resolve contradictions.
The state policy in regulating crisis situations is to minimize the economic and social damage caused by the bankruptcy of an organization. At the same time, it is important to note that the ruin of inefficient enterprises is the most important factor market economy, ensuring its growth and development.
The anti-crisis policy of the state is implemented at three levels:
maintaining the competitiveness of the main sectors of the national economy;
prevention and avoidance of crises in economic and socially significant areas, such as banking or public transport;
· reduction of the negative consequences of the bankruptcy of the enterprise, the fullest possible satisfaction of the interests of its employees and creditors.
The goal of state regulation of crisis situations is to ensure socio-economic stability in society. A direct consequence of this main goal is the formation of starting conditions and potential economic growth and on this basis, improving the well-being of the people This goal more concretely transforms the overarching goal, as seen in Figure 1.1.
Rice. 1.1. The purpose of state regulation
In areas of particular importance for the economic and social life, the state applies special measures to prevent crisis situations.
Such measures can be divided into two groups: administrative and economic.
Administrative measures are based on specific targeted tasks focused on achieving the goals of the system by forming its clear structure, creating conditions for the preparation, adoption and implementation of management decisions. Administrative measures express a direct impact on managed objects, pursue mainly the interests of the governing body. At the same time, the main share of responsibility for the decisions made lies with the management body, the rights of managed objects are limited. The applicable administrative orders are, as a rule, unambiguous, require mandatory execution, and do not allow significant deviations from the order.
Economic measures are based on general rules behavior, choice of economic strategy maneuver. They have an indirect impact on the objects of management, take into account the economic interests of enterprises of various forms of ownership. Also economic measures assume full independence of economic entities with high responsibility for the actions taken and their consequences and encourage economic entities to prepare alternative solutions and choose the best solution from the point of view of the interests of this entity and taking into account the acceptable economic risk.
Such measures make it possible to minimize the risks of bankruptcy of socially significant enterprises and also mitigate the negative consequences of such bankruptcy. Socially significant enterprises include city-forming and strategic enterprises, banks, insurance and financial companies, agricultural enterprises, as well as natural monopolies.
2. TYPES OF STATE REGULATION OF CRISIS SITUATIONS
Anti-crisis regulation is a government policy that is aimed at protecting against crisis situations and preventing the insolvency of enterprises, and, consequently, every citizen of the country. This is a policy within the framework of which paths are built for maximizing the use of scientific and technological potential and for introducing innovative development paths in all areas of activity. Also, anti-crisis regulation should be based on the previous experience not only of one's own country, but also of the world. A policy of anti-crisis measures should be developed on the basis of knowledge gained in the past: what crises have occurred, what are the business cycles, what exactly were the consequences (both negative and positive). Indeed, often a crisis is the beginning of a new vector, the replacement of outdated technologies with modern ones. That is why a complete diagnosis of all possible aspects is necessary.
There are two main forms of state regulation:
I. Direct, implying the direct impact of the state on aggregate demand and supply;
II. Indirect, involving the indirect impact of the state.
Examples of direct impact include the creation public sector, redistribution of income and programming of the economy; examples of indirect impact - the relevant activities of the credit, financial and tax systems.
The government of the country is responsible for the events taking place, therefore, the general situation in the state depends on the state policy. For stabilization economic situation and strengthening positions in the international arena government bodies carry out protection measures in the following areas: legal (creation of legal basis anti-crisis management, the creation of special bodies for the control and examination of enterprises in crisis situations), methodological (monitoring and analysis of bankruptcy of enterprises), informational (analysis and accounting of the solvency of enterprises), economic and administrative (methods of regulation economic activity for stabilization), organizational (creation of conditions for a peaceful, civilized resolution of conflict situations), social (protection of employees in the event of bankruptcy of an enterprise), personnel (training of specialists in the field of anti-crisis management), environmental (environmental protection). Since the political and economic situation in the world as a whole and in a particular country is unstable, constant changes in the established policy are necessary: correction tax rates, amending existing laws, tightening measures to control the activities of enterprises.
State anti-crisis regulation of the economy is directly related to economic policy and directed towards its implementation. The state, in order to achieve the goals of its economic policy, uses various forms and methods, which form the tools of state regulation of the economy.
Firstly, it is counter-cyclical regulation, which consists in a system of ways and methods of influencing the economic situation and economic activity, aimed at mitigating cyclical fluctuations. The negative consequences of the cyclical development, especially the negative ones, force the states to pursue a countercyclical policy, including measures aimed at preventing sharp fluctuations in the development of production. These activities have the opposite direction of the emerging economic situation in each phase of the economic cycle.
The main measures of countercyclical policy include:
1. Monetary (monetary) policy is the actions of the government that affect the amount of money in circulation, that is, the money supply. During upswings, the state reduces the money supply, the amount of money that is in circulation, and during a crisis, on the contrary, it increases.
2. Fiscal policy, which involves maneuvering taxes and government spending in order to influence the economy. During the economic recovery, there is an increase in taxes and a reduction in budget expenditures, and, accordingly, in a crisis period, taxes reduce and increase budget expenditures. Reducing government spending reduces aggregate demand, leading to a fall in output, income, and employment. Growth in government spending causes a backlash: aggregate demand rises, production expands, incomes rise, and unemployment falls.
3. Wage policy. It is structured as follows: during upswings, wages are lowered, and during periods of crisis, the opposite measure is taken - wages are raised.
4. Investment policy. This measure involves reducing public spending during economic upswings, and increasing public investment during a crisis.
The next method of regulation is the management of the refinancing rate. The refinancing rate is the amount of interest on an annualized basis payable to a country's central bank for loans granted credit institutions. This measure implies an increase in the rate during periods of crisis and a weakening of the rate during upswings. You can see how the rate changed during the global crisis of 2007 - 2010. By decrees of the Central Bank, the rates changed as follows:
Regulation is also carried out in the form of an impact on production: state regulation in this area is reduced to an active industrial policy, which is based on the following principles: (ensuring that the interests of all participants in its implementation are taken into account, socio-economic orientation, a combination of state regulation measures and market mechanisms, targeted events, the system of contractual relations and the competitive basis for its participants, the widespread use of rent, leasing and investment competitions for the sale of state property).
Normative legislative activity also carries out regulation. The fundamental document is the Civil Code Russian Federation. Its rules in accordance with paragraph 1 of Art. 76 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation have "direct effect on the entire territory of the Russian Federation". The main document is also the federal law"On the insolvency (bankruptcy) of enterprises" No. 127-FZ of October 26, 2002
3. MECHANISMS OF STATE REGULATION DURING THE WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS
More than ten years have passed since the crisis of 1998, and during this time, economic growth has increased in our country, and the well-being of people has increased. But at the end of 2007, Russia again faced a serious economic problem- the global economic crisis, which led to a drop in production, an increase in unemployment and a decrease in incomes of the population.
The impact of the global economic crisis has its own characteristics that are typical for our country, and they are associated with the accumulated deformations of the structure of the economy, the underdevelopment of a number of market institutions, including the financial system.
For the Russian economy, the main problem is the following - a very high dependence on exports natural resources. Oil and gas exports, exports of metals and other raw materials still play a key role in our economy. But as a result of the crisis, prices and demand for almost all Russian raw material exports fell.
The next problem is the lack of competitiveness of non-resource sectors of the economy, that is, when the problem began in the resource sectors, the problems from these industries began to spread to related ones. And as a result, there was a significant drop in industrial production, an increase in the number of unemployed, wages decreased and a number of other negative consequences.
The third problem is the underdevelopment of the financial sector, namely banks. Many Russian enterprises, which developed quite rapidly in the pre-crisis years and entered foreign markets, could not count on financing within the country. Russian loans banking system were more expensive, and credit terms were shorter, which forced them to borrow loans abroad. But during the crisis, foreign capital markets became inaccessible to the enterprise.
The national economy in the pre-crisis years developed largely due to external sources - these are high prices for raw materials, cheap loans from foreign banks. But at the beginning of the crisis, Russia needed to find internal sources of growth to get out of the crisis and ensure long-term sustainable development.
In October-December 2008, the government began to implement anti-crisis measures, it was prompted by the fact that the crisis began to have a serious impact on the Russian economy, and there was a sharp drop in production. The "Anti-crisis program of the Government of the Russian Federation for 2009" was adopted, which was aimed at improving the financial and economic condition of the country.
This Program included a number of priority areas:
1. Fulfillment of social obligations to the population, which meant providing support to citizens most affected by the crisis: creation of temporary jobs; allocation of funds for retraining and development of small businesses.
2. Strengthening the national economy: activation of domestic demand for domestic goods; support for enterprises implementing innovations.
3. Support innovative projects; support for energy-saving technologies and the development of high-tech industries, including aircraft and shipbuilding, the space industry, and nuclear energy.
4. Development of competition and improvement of antimonopoly regulation; reduction of the list of goods subject to mandatory certification; anti-corruption measures; support for small and medium-sized businesses by reducing taxes and expanding access to public procurement.
5. Improving the efficiency of the banking system by expanding the resource base and increasing the liquidity of the financial system; by increasing the availability of bank loans for enterprises in the real sector to ensure the rehabilitation of banks.
6. Implementation of the macroeconomic policy of the Government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia, aimed at maintaining a stable position of the ruble exchange rate and reducing inflation, as well as pursuing a monetary policy.
The results of the anti-crisis measures of the Government of the Russian Federation for 2009 were: GDP growth; a sharp slowdown in inflation; reduction in the unemployment rate in the country. The decline in industrial production increased incomes of citizens. “In 2009, we not only solved urgent problems, but also did not waste time for systemic transformations. All this allows us, without slowing down, to move from anti-crisis management to sustainable innovative development,” this is how the result of anti-crisis measures for 2009 was expressed by V. V. Putin.
Despite the positive results, it cannot be said that the situation in the country has finally returned to normal. This is due to the fact that the emerging positive trends were inconsistent and unstable, as a result, economic indicators did not rise to the pre-crisis level. Therefore, it was decided to continue the anti-crisis policy in 2010 in order to maintain and strengthen positive trends and eliminate "residual" negative consequences. Among the priority areas, emphasis was placed on ensuring social stability, supporting economic recovery and implementing measures to address the problems of the Russian economy, including improving the institutional environment, building a new regulatory model, and developing the necessary economic conditions for the transition from the anti-crisis regime of the functioning of the economy to the solution of modernization tasks.
Thus, in 2010 it was planned to improve the overall situation in the country by improving the quality of life, reducing unemployment, modernizing enterprises, creating new jobs and normalizing the banking system.
I would like to say that no innovation can work without the mistakes of the first steps, the country adopts the experience of developed countries, builds directions for improvement, and then much depends on the methods of implementation.
Crisis of 2008 - 2009 turned out to be a serious test for our country. The peculiarity of the current situation was that the main negative trends were the result of developments in the global economy.
Since the observed economic downturn was unique for Russia, predicting its duration and consequences becomes a difficult task. How accurately the characteristics of the crisis, namely its depth and duration, will be determined, will depend on the decision of the authorities to minimize its consequences.
The program of anti-crisis measures of the government of the Russian Federation for 2009 provides an optimal combination of anti-crisis measures and long-term projects aimed at building a new, more efficient economy. The priorities of the program are as follows: the fulfillment of the state's social obligations to citizens, the preservation and development of industrial and technological potential, the development of competition and the reduction of administrative pressure on business, increasing the stability of the national financial system, ensuring macroeconomic balance, maintaining a course towards stability national currency, lower inflation; taking actions to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the economy, accelerating the transition to an innovative type of development.
The seven main priorities for the government's work in managing the 2008-2009 crisis.
1. Public obligations of the state to the population are fulfilled in full. Citizens and families most affected during the global economic crisis received support. This implies strengthening the social protection of the population, increasing the volume and quality of social and medical services, improving the situation with drug provision, especially vital drugs. Particular attention is paid to the preservation of labor potential. The scale of the state's activities in the field of employment, counteracting the growth of unemployment, the development of retraining and retraining programs for workers at risk of dismissal have been expanded;
2. The industrial and technological potential for future growth must be preserved and strengthened. The government will not invest taxpayers' money in maintaining inefficient industries. At the same time, enterprises that have increased their last years those who have invested in the development of production and the creation of new products, having increased labor productivity, have the right to count on state assistance in solving the most acute problems caused by the crisis;
3. The basis of the post-crisis recovery and subsequent progressive development should be domestic demand. Weakening the dependence of economic growth on external factors, the most efficient use of internal resources will be the key tasks of the government in the coming years. During the crisis, domestic demand from the state (government investment and public procurement) will play an important role, but as the situation stabilizes, private demand (demand for housing, consumer goods, services of domestic production) will play an increasing role, and the Government will take all necessary measures to increase it.
4. The crisis is not a reason to abandon the long-term priorities of the country's modernization. This work will be intensified and accelerated. The main modernization task of the government is to change the existing model of economic growth. Instead of "oil" growth, we must move to innovative. The most important innovation processes will be supported, including increasing the energy efficiency of the economy. Investing in human capital - education and health - will be a key priority budget spending. Infrastructural facilities necessary to improve the efficiency of the economy should be implemented, while the efficiency of spending both budgetary and private funds will be significantly increased.
5. Business is exempted from the pressure of officials. The government will continue to reduce administrative barriers for businesses, which are one of the causes of corruption. Will also be offered new complex measures that allow small businesses to successfully develop in a crisis.
6. The economy must be based on a strong national financial system. The government is making all necessary efforts to normalize the functioning of the financial sector, including banking and insurance system, the stock market, for the necessary volumes of investment resources to enter the economy. At the same time, special attention is paid to the speed of decision-making and implementation.
7. The government and the Central Bank implement a responsible macroeconomic policy aimed at both maintaining macroeconomic stability and creating the necessary conditions, incentives for the growth of household savings, increasing the investment attractiveness of the economy, and the formation of a qualitatively different model of economic development. This suggests a weighted budget policy, maintaining an equilibrium exchange rate of the ruble. monetary policy will be aimed at combating the liquidity crisis in financial sector while reducing inflation. The measures taken should lead to an increase in confidence in the national currency, an increase in the level of monetization of the economy, and a decrease in inflation, thereby providing the necessary conditions for restoring sustainable economic growth. crisis economy cyclical recovery
The Government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia took measures to improve the Russian economy in 2009. Among the main ones, the following can be distinguished: strengthening the social protection of the population, ensuring guarantees of social and medical assistance, governmental support spheres of employment (695.8 billion rubles have been allocated); social protection (447.9 billion rubles); co-financing of regional programs aimed at reducing tension in the labor market of constituent entities of the Russian Federation (43.7 billion rubles); an increase in the amount of unemployment benefits (29.8 billion rubles); carrying out weekly monitoring in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation of dismissal of employees in connection with the liquidation of organizations or a reduction in the number or staff of employees, as well as underemployment of employees of the organization; preservation and enhancement of industrial and technological potential (675.4 billion rubles); general support for the real sector and work with backbone enterprises (302.0 billion rubles); tax incentive measures (296 billion rubles); support for certain sectors of the economy (373.4 billion rubles); providing financial support for enterprises of the military-industrial complex (70 billion rubles); increasing the stability of the national financial system (485 billion rubles); interaction between the Government of the Russian Federation and the subjects of the Russian Federation in the implementation of anti-crisis measures (300 billion rubles).
In this way, the most significant negative consequences of the financial crisis, which are widespread, have been listed above. In fact, this is what happened in 2008-2010 in the economy and social sphere. Indeed, there were many problems and it was necessary to solve them comprehensively.
The global economic crisis was of a systemic nature, affecting most sectors of the economy and the social sphere in each country, affecting the structure of the world economy and the principles of international economic relations. There was a high probability that the crisis would be prolonged. The government took these factors into account when developing and implementing anti-crisis measures and proceeded from the need to maintain the necessary amount of accumulated financial resources to solve both anti-crisis tasks and strategic development tasks in subsequent years.
As a result, Russia managed to get out of the crisis, which indicates that the state is making the right decision in regulating such situations. Problems and gaps in existing programs are still present, because nothing is perfect. Therefore, we should carefully take into account the experience of past years, make adjustments to the programs of anti-crisis measures in order to minimize losses during crisis situations.
CONCLUSION
The global economic crisis of 2008-2009 was the result of the failure of the established financial system as a result of the poor quality of regulation, due to which huge risks were not properly considered.
The global financial institutions of regulation have not reacted to the events taking place in recent years with adequate actions, which confirmed the discrepancy between their activities and the needs of the modern world. Due to the lack of tools to prevent and minimize the consequences of the crisis, the world is faced with serious economic shocks and - as a result - with the growth of global social instability.
In the context of globalization, the normal functioning of the world economy requires a stable, predictable and functioning according to predetermined rules international monetary and financial system, which is based on the maintenance of macroeconomic and financial discipline by the world's leading economies. Crisis of 2008 - 2009 showed that maintaining such discipline remains an unresolved task, both for sovereign states and for leading companies operating in global markets.
In addition, the global economic crisis indicates the need to abandon standard approaches and require the adoption of collective, internationally agreed decisions aimed, in essence, at creating a system for managing the globalization process. All countries need to act as decisively as possible to restore sustainable economic development, as well as trust and stability in financial markets.
The new international structure of financial relations, according to D.A. Medvedev, should be based on the following principles: compatibility of activities and harmony of standards of national and international regulatory institutions; democracy and equal responsibility for decision-making; achieving efficiency based on the legitimacy of international coordination mechanisms; transparency of activities of all participants; fair distribution of risks.
In general, it is difficult to overestimate the role of the state in the economy. It creates conditions for economic activity, protects entrepreneurs from the threat of monopolies, provides for the needs of society in public goods, provides social protection for low-income sections of the population, and solves issues of national defense. On the other hand, government intervention can, in some cases, noticeably weaken the market mechanism and cause significant harm to the country's economy. But government intervention market economy nevertheless necessary. The only question is to what extent and by what methods this intervention should be carried out.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Albegova I.M. State economic policy / I.M. Albegov, R.G. Yemtsova, A.V. Kholopov. -M.: Business and service, 2008
2. Akhmetov R.R. On the impact of the global financial crisis on Russian financial markets. Finance and credit. - 2008. No. 28.
3. Gamzaeva G.E. Anti-crisis management: essence, goals, tasks. 2007, p. 126.
4. Dontsova L.V. Issues of state regulation of the economy: main directions and forms / "Marketing in Russia and abroad", 2009. P.12
5. Dokhina R.R. The main trends in state regulation on present stage market relations in Russia / R.R. Dokhina: Academy of Management "TIBSI": 2009
6. Dudnik A.I. Crisis management. 2005. S. 14.
7. Kovan S.E. Theory of anti-crisis management of an enterprise: a study guide \ S.E. Cowan, L.P. Mokrova, A.N. Ryakhovskaya; ed. M.A. Fedotova, A.N. Ryakhovskaya. - M.: KNORUS, 2009. - p. 29-32.
8. Korotkov E.M. Anti-crisis management: textbook (neck). -M.:INFRA-M, 2007
9. Kushilin V. - state regulation of the economy: overdue decisions // Economist magazine. 2007 No. 11
10. Utkin E.A. Crisis management. M.: EKMOS, 2005. S. 79.
11. Ushanov P.V. Anti-crisis management: socio-psychological aspects. Money and credit. 2008, p. 63.
Hosted on Allbest.ru
...State regulation of the economy in a market economy. Economic cycles of the initial period (in the era of classical capitalism) and modern ones. Types of state regulation of crisis situations. Basis for the classification of crises.
test, added 05/04/2012
Methods of state regulation and reasons for state intervention in the market economy. The essence of direct (administrative) and indirect (economic) methods. System of tools for regulating the economy. Financial and monetary policy.
abstract, added 03.03.2009
The subject, scientific foundations and concepts of state regulation of the economy, the role and place of the state in economic systems and market economy models. The concept, essence and types of national planning and antimonopoly regulation.
course of lectures, added 01/31/2012
Crises in socio-economic development. Trends in the emergence and resolution of economic crises. State regulation of crisis situations. Crises in the public administration system. Cyclic development of crises in the development of the organization.
abstract, added 01/31/2010
Subject, tasks and methodology of state regulation of the economy in modern economic realities. The main directions of state regulation: social policy, financial policy and monetary circulation, development of regions, ecology.
term paper, added 06/02/2010
The main types of state intervention in the market economy. Types of state regulation of the economy. Combination of market and state mechanisms of economic regulation. The most important directions of economic regulation in the Russian Federation.
term paper, added 06/04/2015
Reasons for the cyclical nature of the economy and the main types of economic cycles. Phases of the industrial cycle and the mechanism of their change. The countercyclical policy of the state and its features in modern Russia. State fiscal and monetary regulation.
term paper, added 11/09/2011
The essence of market and state regulation in a "mixed economy". Analysis of the situation in the residential real estate market during the financial crisis. Characteristic economic methods management of the real estate market in crisis situations.
abstract, added 10/07/2012
The essence of state regulation of the economy. The policy of state regulation of the economy. Social policy of the state. financial policy states: taxes, the state budget. State regulation of the economy in Russia.
term paper, added 12/13/2007
State regulation: strategy and driving forces of economic transformation. Economy as an object of social regulation. Modern tasks of state regulation. State mechanism regulation of economic processes.
Over the past five years since the beginning of the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009, the totality of the problems caused by it has not lost its acuteness and topicality. If not in depth, then in scope and consequences, it can only be compared with the Great Depression of the 1930s. Having emerged in the mortgage segment of the US financial market, it quickly spread to the real sector and gained planetary proportions. In its zone were countries and regions that differ in the level of development of productive forces, social and political orientation. The crisis covered more than 80 percent of the world economy (in the years of the Great Depression - 92.4 percent). Only a few countries managed to maintain a positive, but slow growth dynamics. In terms of its qualitative characteristics, the crisis went beyond purely economic and social parameters and acquired a geopolitical projection.
If we consider the crisis from a formal point of view, as an element of the “growth-fall-growth” cycle, then we can talk about the attenuation of its descending phase. Despite, however, the passage of the most acute stage and some scattered signs of improvement, the state of the world economy and the immediate prospects for its development are still problematic. The rise in production that resumed in 2010 did not transform into a process of sustainable and dynamic growth. In the main centers of the world economy, the situation of instability and low business activity remains. There is an aggravation of social and domestic political problems.
Periodically appearing in the world press, alarming warnings about the possibility of a second wave of the crisis are not without foundation. The exit of the largest economies from the recession was largely carried out due to the unprecedented money emission. In the US, for example, the combined volume of the first and second waves of so-called quantitative easing amounted to $2.3 trillion. In September 2012, the Federal Reserve System (Fed) announced a new round of liquidity injections into the economy, under which It also provides for a monthly purchase by the Fed of Treasury bonds and mortgage bonds worth $40 billion. In the EU, during two long-term refinancing operations, the European central bank issued 1 trillion euro loans 2 .
However, the reasons for the systemic failure in the functioning of institutions and markets were still not eliminated. The policy of stimulating business activity at the expense of budgetary resources has led to an increase in government obligations. In the United States, in particular, public debt reached 106.6 percent of GDP in 2012 and continues to grow at a faster pace. Indicators close to this level were registered in the country only in 1947 (110 percent) due to the high costs during the Second World War. The problem of the budget deficit is acute. The main risks are associated with the threat of a "fiscal cliff", the achievement of the "ceiling" of the debt and the volatility of financial markets.
Negative trends persist in other leading states industrial world. Japan, whose economy has been stagnating for a long time, is facing a high budget deficit and a record level of debt (235.8 percent of GDP) 3 . Particularly serious difficulties are experienced by the eurozone countries, where the epicenter of the crisis has moved. In the zone of increased risk are such countries as Greece, Portugal, Italy. The volume of public debt of these countries in relation to GDP in 2011 amounted to 160.8, 106.8 and 120.1 percent, respectively. For comparison: the criteria for economic stability, established by the Maastricht Treaty for the member countries of the eurozone, prescribe the deduction of public debt within 60 percent of GDP. According to a negative scenario, events are developing in Spain, which is essentially teetering on the verge of default.
The European Union has made significant efforts to prevent a catastrophic failure in the economy and the collapse of the eurozone. So far, however, there has not been a radical change in the situation for the better. According to the OECD, in 2012 the economies of the 17 eurozone countries will shrink by 0.1 percent, while in 2013 GDP growth will be only 0.9 percent 4 . Against the backdrop of an uncertain recovery in production, bordering on entering a recession, the problem of employment remains acute. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone at the end of 2012 is projected at 10.8 percent (10.0 percent in 2011). The most alarming figures remain in Spain (25.1 percent) and Greece (23.1 percent). These two countries also recorded the highest unemployment rates among young people (aged 15 to 24), at 52.9 and 53.2 percent, respectively.
The continued increase in the volume of derivatives (derivatives) at the level of companies and banks, which played an extremely negative role in the development of the crisis, also testifies to the persistence of inertial tendencies in the centers of capitalism. From 2010 to 2011, according to the Bank for International Settlements, the total volume of derivative contracts increased from $601 trillion to $648 trillion 6 . For comparison: the total world GDP is only 70 trillion, that is, about 10 percent of this position. The volume of derivatives on the balance sheets of US banks increased, according to data Federal Service by the US Monetary Control Commission, from $165 trillion at the end of 2007 to $230.8 trillion at the end of 2011. Of these, 95 percent accounted for the five largest banks. This top five is led by JP Morgan Chase ($88 trillion). It is followed by Bank of America (38 trillion), Citigroup (32 trillion), Gold-man Sachs (30 trillion) and Wells Fargo ($5 trillion) 7 / At such volumes, the concentration of derivatives financial instruments even the most insignificant fluctuations in the markets can cause an "avalanche" that is able to sweep away the protective mechanisms of the world monetary system that have been built in recent years.
Describing the current situation, the well-known American researcher Kenneth Rogoff noted that “the mistakes that caused the 2008 crisis have not been corrected. The chances of an immediate repeat of the financial crash are slightly reduced. The laws and regulations issued at the start of the crisis were basically patchwork to maintain the status quo. In all other respects, however, essentially nothing has changed.
Indeed, in general, we are still talking about the accumulated and unresolved issues in economically developed countries of growing sovereign debt, deepening budget deficits and global imbalances. Thus, having failed to fulfill its “cleansing mission”, the crisis took on a focal character while maintaining the threat of local (country or regional) problems developing into a new recession and spreading to other countries and segments of the global economy.
Origins and causes of the crisis
To date, I have not reached a consolidated opinion either about the nature of the last crisis, or, according to J. Stiglitz, the “great recession” (by analogy with the Great Depression of the 1930s), or about what kind of development policy in the post-crisis period. The range of opinions remains quite wide. The existing interpretations deserve the closest attention. But often they focus on one, albeit an important component of the problem, without reflecting the complex or multidimensional nature of the changes taking place in the world. One cannot but agree with the Russian researcher A. Fursov, according to whom “crisis phenomena are most often analyzed in isolation, as a result of which the essence of the whole disappears. If we talk about the whole, then the world is not just going through a crisis, but is at a turning point, which has no analogues in history until now” 9 . The theory of cyclicity, which states that the spiral always returns to a new level, but with the same regularity, does not work in this case. exists. This is, in essence, not about the next cycle, but about the formation of qualitatively new trends in the development of the global economy.
Discussions continue in the world economic community regarding the causes and nature of the current upheavals. Speaking, however, about the origins, it is impossible not to note the features of the development of the world economy in the pre-crisis period. In the last two or three decades of the past century, the processes of globalization of production, trade, and financial flows began to exert a decisive influence on the mechanism of the economic cycle. The interdependence of national economies, the consequences of uneven development and the struggle for resources have become a source of increased volatility in world markets. more and more specific gravity in cyclicality began to occupy structural components generated by disproportions in the development of individual countries, spheres and branches of production. The crises were becoming more and more profound and no longer fit within the boundaries of individual national economic complexes. This period, as the famous researcher of global financial crises Charles Kindleberger noted, “may be called unprecedented in terms of the instability of prices for goods, currencies, real estate and securities, as well as in terms of the frequency and severity of financial shocks” 10 .
The multi-layered and complex nature of the problems that emerged in 2008-2009 also affected the interpretation of the origins of the crisis. Opinions vary - from explaining its causes by "lack of effective market regulation and supervision of financial institutions» 11 prior to bringing to the fore the question of the depletion of the model of the global economy that has developed over the past decades.
The most common is the opinion about the purely financial nature of the crisis. And among the reasons are the liberalization of the credit and financial sector, the deregulation of international capital flows, the underestimation of risks and the excessive reliance of banking institutions on borrowed funds in the years preceding the crisis. That is, the crisis is interpreted as a purely financial one that has arisen in the market mortgage lending USA and along the chain spread to other segments of the financial system and to the real economy.
A special commission of the US Congress to investigate the causes of the 2008-2009 crisis, created by the decision of President B. Obama, came to a practically similar conclusion. The final report was made public in January 2011 12 . The crisis, according to the authors of the report, was provoked by the following factors: failures in financial regulation, violations in the field of corporate governance, which led to excessive risks; excessively high household indebtedness; widespread distribution of "exotic" securities (derivatives), the growth of an unregulated "shadow" banking system.
The blame was thus placed on bankers, financial regulators and politicians. Banks were taking on too much risk while regulators weren't took due steps to avoid it. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has also been accused of "failing to stop the growth of 'toxic' mortgages and of propagating the idea that financial institutions could well regulate themselves." on one's own" 13 .
In general, among the supporters of the purely financial nature of the crisis, three main points of view can be distinguished. As part of the first cause of the crisis, the uncontrolled use by the United States of its status as a reserve currency issuing country is voiced. According to the second premise lies in the credit traps of the "consumer society". Proponents of the third point of view focus on the uncontrolled development of financial markets.
In such an interpretation, in a generalized version, the shifts that have taken place in the economy of industrial centers are reflected. Important qualitative changes have taken place here over the past decades. They are associated with the relocation of the production of standard and mass industrial, including machine-building, products to rapidly developing countries - Mexico, China, India, Brazil, etc. The structure of production in the leading economies of the world has increasingly shifted towards the service sector. In the United States, for example, the share of material industries in GDP fell from 40 percent in the early 1950s to 20 percent in the early 2000s 14 .
The share of financial markets has noticeably increased. Their growing influence was accompanied by a massive accumulation financial assets and the introduction of a number of institutional innovations that have led to an increase in the levels of debt of households, corporate and public sectors. The virtual economy has become more attractive for investment compared to real production assets. In the US, the financial sector's share of total corporate profits increased from 7.5 percent in 1983 to 40 percent in 2007 15 .
Global financial transactions with money issue, exchange rates and credit transactions have become several times larger than the size of the real economy. The problem was exacerbated by the massive launch of derivatives through a multi-stage chain, which, according to UNCTAD experts, are “very dubious instruments in terms of their contribution to the growth of public welfare” 16 . Securitization and other such innovations have disrupted the traditional relationship between lenders and borrowers. The financial component has acquired a self-contained value and has actually lost touch with the real economy.
Given these factors, the loss or even weakening of control over processes in the financial sector could not but lead to another collapse in the stock and credit markets. According to Alan Greenspan, in these conditions, “if securitized American low-quality loans did not turn out to be a weak link in the global financial system, then some kind of some other financial product or market" 17 .
However, by highlighting the factor of “ineffective control” when explaining the causes of the turbulence, it is overlooked that the financial component is only one of the systemic elements of the global economy, which started back in the 1990s. Its main components were deregulation and liberalization. It was the latter that were considered as the main regulator of economic life in all its manifestations. In this context, the decrease in the level of control over the functioning of the financial market was, in essence, only a reflection or consequence of the flaws in the global economy model and its leading segments represented by the United States, Western Europe and Japan, which largely determined the main contours , ideological and geopolitical parameters of world development.
It is no coincidence that as the recession deepened, a broader interpretation of the anomalies that arose in the world economy emerged. To date, many authoritative representatives of political, economic and scientific circles agree that there are a number of reasons and factors for the occurrence of such large-scale distortions in the global economy. As noted by the American researchers K. Rogoff and K. Reinhart mentioned above, “serious financial crises rarely happen in isolation from other events. Rather, they are "not the triggers for the recession", but more often the mechanisms for its amplification" 18 .
The forms of manifestation of the last crisis, its duration and associated with it, in the words of Christine Logard, "shifts of tectonic platforms in the global economy" 19 give reason to believe that its origins are not primarily financial in nature. They are not, contrary to the opinion of the IMF and the World Bank (WB), only a consequence of the lack of effective market regulation and supervision of credit institutions 20 . Global disproportions have not arisen in recent years. They are associated with the prevailing trends in the evolution of the world economy, the results of its development over the past decades. The statement of experts from such an authoritative organization in international economic circles as the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean is not without interest. In their opinion, “the crisis is not only an expression of the weakness of financial regulation, nor the result of a moral crisis caused by greed and greed. The crisis was a reflection of the end of the development model and opens the door for discussions about further ways of socio-economic progress” 21 .
The causes of the turbulent processes that have arisen in the world economy are multifaceted and testify to the crisis of the global system as a whole. There is a complex devaluation of the structure of global governance, the fundamental ideas of the modern world order. Combined with the transition to a new phase of the technological cycle, this predetermined the scale of financial and economic failures. In addition, the preservation of the current model, which started back in the 1990s, has caused an extremely unstable state of the economy in the main industrial centers in the post-crisis period as well.
Systemic aspects of the crisis
According to the totality of the main qualitative and quantitative characteristics, and above all in terms of its consequences, the crisis quickly transformed into a systemic one. He called to life or strengthened tendencies and processes that were in a latent or inhibited state. Under his influence, they acquired a clearer and more structured expression, began to exert an ever more significant influence on the formation of the world development paradigm in its economic, ideological and geopolitical content. We can single out a number of key, in our opinion, systemic aspects of the last crisis.
Formation of a new configuration of centers of economic growth. The theme of shifting the economic balance of power in the world began to occupy one of the central places in the ongoing discussions about the development of the global economy in the post-crisis period. Despite the differences in quantitative estimates of the emerging trends, many researchers adhere to the point of view of the emergence of new centers of economic growth and influence. These shifts have become one of the key factors in the modern geo-economic process. And it's not just about China and India. Changes are taking place practically along the entire perimeter of developing countries. The share of the latter in global GDP (according to purchasing power parity) increased from 33.7 percent in 1980 to 43.4 percent in 2010. According to World Bank estimates, the outstripping trend will continue in the next five or more years 22 . The share of developing countries in world exports increased from 22 percent in 1980 to 45 percent in 2010, and in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, respectively, from 7 to 47 percent 23 .
Taking into account the current prevailing trends, it can be assumed that the shift in growth centers is not opportunistic, but long-term in nature. According to the results of many forecasts, in the next twenty years the balance of power in the world economy may change radically in favor of developing countries. According to the British branch of Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC), by 2020, the combined GDP of the seven largest emerging markets (Brazil, India, Indonesia, China, Mexico, Russia, Turkey) will exceed the GDP of the seven main industrial countries (USA, Japan, Germany, Great Britain). - UK, France, Italy, Canada). If in 2000 the total GDP (PPP) of the seven industrialized countries exceeded the size of the seven developing economies by more than twice, by 2007 the gap had narrowed to 60 percent, and in 2010 to 35 percent. If the current trends continue, by 2020 the gap will be reduced to zero. And by 2030, the emerging seven will overtake the seven leading industrialized states by 35 percent.
Really, international relations are currently working not only in the direction North-South, but also South-North. It was not the economically developed, but the developing countries that became the locomotive of the exit from the recession, among which Brazil, India, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and South Korea stood out (they account for about 55 percent of countries GDP emerging market) 24 . According to World Bank forecasts, from 2011 to 2025, developing economies will have an annual growth rate of 4.7 percent, while developed economies will only grow 2.325 percent. 25 . Until 2025, the growing power and influence of rising markets will be the driving force.
Given the current trends, the forecast estimates noted above do not look unrealistic. However, as evidenced by empirical data, economic development is by no means always linear, and the actual dynamics of GDP may differ significantly from forecast indicators. So, until 1990, the question of Japan becoming the world's leading economy was actively discussed. But this did not happen, although the forecasts looked quite reasonable. In addition, one cannot ignore the fact that the growth of China and a number of other developing countries is to a certain extent influenced by the effect of a low base. The extensive model of their development also has an effect. There is still a high reserve of low-skilled labor force, which is actively involved in the production process. At the same time, the gap in the volume of per capita income, in the scale of poverty and poverty, in the levels of labor productivity and other socio-economic parameters remains quite significant. However, the current prevailing trends indicate the presence of serious shifts in the global geopolitical space.
Erosion of the unipolar world. At present, the growing economic power of China, favorable forecasts for the economic growth of India and a number of other fast-growing economies allow us to say that the world is in the stage of the formation of multipolarity and a gradual redistribution of the political sphere. and economic influence. An increasing number of countries and regions are no longer mere objects of geopolitical processes, their desire to pursue their own policies is growing, often contradicting the strategy of the great powers. The qualitative difference of the current situation lies in the fact that the number of leading players in world politics has been replenished by new powers, regional groupings, international organizations that have a significant impact on world events.
The United States is still the leading and most powerful power in the world, but main feature from the time of- Another geopolitical process is the entry of China and India into the big leagues of global politics. A number of countries - Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, South Korea - also raised their status. More and more confidently declare themselves as important subjects of the world economy, such countries as Argentina, Mexico, South Africa The process of economic, social and political renewal of Brazil has noticeably accelerated, in particular. At the end of 2010, in terms of GDP (2.17 trillion dollars at PPP), it was ahead of Italy and came close to the UK (2.23) and France (2.19) 26 . Brazil is increasingly positioning itself as a "heavyweight" in the global economy and politics.
Against this background, there is a process of reducing the share of the United States in the global economy. In a number of quantitative parameters, China has already come close to the United States - like none of the American competitors in the entire 20th century. In 2008, the size of the Chinese economy (in terms of PPP) was 42.8 percent of the American one, and in 2010 it was 69.2 percent 27 . If China's economic growth continues, then by 2020 the economies will equalize (in terms of GDP), and by 2030 China will be ahead by about 20 percent. Such a scenario is highly probable and widely accepted. The share of other rising countries is also growing. So, India's GDP (PPP) in 2001was at the level of 51 percent of Japan's GDP, and in 2010 - 97 percent 28 .
The alignment of forces in the world economy is beginning to change, and this process will apparently continue. Prior to the onset of the crisis, the role of the United States as the center for coordinating global macroeconomic policy was practically not subjected to serious criticism.
However, the recession that began in December 2007 and the ongoing instability in the country weakened the US economy and called into question the US ability to continue to play the role of financial and economic leader. The United States is gradually ceasing to be the locomotive of the world economy.
Notably, in 2008, the US National Intelligence Council acknowledged for the first time that America's global power was indeed on a downward trajectory. In one of its periodic futuristic reports "Global Trends 2025", the council referred to "an unprecedented transition in world history of the world's wealth and economic power from West to East" as a major factor in the decline of "the relative strength of the United States—even in the military sphere." According to the council, “in terms of the size, speed and direction of the flow, the current transfer of wealth and economic influence from West to East is without precedent in modern history” 29 .
In a situation of weakening the prevailing positions of the West, the process of formation of new economic and political structures - BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Union of South American Nations (Unasur), etc. - has intensified, with their desire to reach the global level of development and decision making. As the practice of recent years has shown, today it is virtually impossible to resolve global issues in unilaterally. New collective forums turned out to be in demand. One of them was the G20, which emerged in the extreme conditions of the crisis. Concerns that the global economy is on brink of disaster, have accelerated the transition from the G7 to the G20 format, which includes the world's largest economies and the most important emerging national markets.
This expansion of economic coordination represents the recognition of a new group of global economic players. The creation of the "Group of Twenty" was an indirect confirmation of the fact that the Western countries are not able to cope with the world economic problems alone. In essence, this became a reflection of the trend towards a rebalancing of forces in the world and its movement towards multipolarity.
Crisis of ideological concepts. One of the main consequences of the crisis was the growing doubt, not only in expert circles, but also in government circles, about the effectiveness of economic liberalism. In a number of cases, the question is raised of replacing the ideological concepts of the 20th century and the previously dominant orthodox theories and points of view regarding the conduct of macroeconomic policy 30 . The global economic crisis has undermined faith in the infallibility of markets.
We can talk about the weakening of the positions of supporters of the idea of the superiority of liberal capitalism and limiting the role of the state. The crisis has revealed systemic weaknesses inherent in the functioning of unregulated global markets. So, in the face of the threat of depression, Washington and other economically developed states went to the nationalization of the failed backbone financial companies and banks, to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. The concept of monetarism was called into question, which is based on the position that a priori markets are competitive and market system able to automatically reach macroeconomic equilibrium. At the height of the crisis, almost all the leading industrialized countries were forced to switch to "manual" management. Without significant state injections Money into the economy and to support bankrupt financial institutions, most countries would be doomed to a financial collapse.
Under the influence of the crisis, the pendulum shifted from monetarism to the Keynesian concept of the role of the state in the formation and implementation of economic policy. According to P. Krugman, "the ideas of John Maynard Keynes, who analyzed the essence of the Great Depression, are now more significant than ever" 31 . In professional and public discussions, arguments in favor of recognizing specific functions for the state, requiring not only the establishment of the rules of the game in the market and control over their observance, but also direct work in the economic field, began to sound more and more convincing. More precisely, in those areas that private capital avoids due to their low profitability, high risks and long payback periods.
Aggravation of structural problems of the global financial system. Under the influence of the crisis, the issue of reforming the global financial architecture has reached a new level. The problem of the weakening of the positions of the US dollar has acquired the greatest urgency. The slow and unstable recovery of the US economy, the remaining budget A hefty deficit and growing public debt predetermined the growth of distrust in the ability of the dollar to serve as the world's reserve currency. It should be noted that the idea of introducing a global means of payment that is not related to the national monetary unit any country, has been discussed for more than a dozen years. At one time, J. M. Keynes at the Bretton Woods Conference (1944) defended the idea of a world central bank with its own currency (bancor).
Under the influence of the crisis, the idea of improving the current monetary system acquired concrete outlines in the form of put forward proposals. If until recently this issue was mainly of an academic nature, today the relevant conclusions and recommendations are already being formulated within the framework of international organizations. The UNCTAD report for 2009 concluded that "the current world monetary system is inefficient, hinders the development of the world economy and is one of the main causes of the financial and economic crisis" 32 . This white paper from the multinational institution also emphasizes that the role of the dollar as the world's reserve currency must be re-evaluated. According to the organization's specialists, the new monetary system should not be based on any one or even several national currencies. As an alternative to the dollar, it is proposed to use special drawing rights (SDRs) issued by the IMF (created in 1969).
A similar conclusion was reached by the UN expert commission on the reform of the international monetary and financial system under the leadership of J. Stiglitz. The Commission spoke in favor of adopting a truly global reserve currency, "whose credibility and stability will not depend on the unpredictability of the economy and politics of a single country" 33 . These proposals were further developed in the ECOSOC report. According to UN experts, since the US dollar is not a stable store of value, one of the requirements for a reserve currency is “it is necessary to develop a new system that should be based on the issuance of international liquid funds, and not on the use of national -National currencies” 34 .
Critical remarks regarding the existing monetary system, as well as proposals put forward to reduce the international status of the dollar, have quite real grounds, related, in particular, to the complexity of the financial and economic problems facing the United States. The position of the dollar is not as strong as it used to be. However, the question is far from being so clear-cut. Calls to find a replacement for the US currency seem elusive, especially in the short term. Benjamin Cohen, a professor at the University of California, explains, in particular, the current situation by the lack of a real alternative to the dollar at the moment. Paraphrasing W. Churchill's well-known statement about democracy, B. Cohen noted that "the dollar may turn out to be the worst solution, except for all the others" 35 .
At the same time, declarations about the change in the status of the dollar are beginning to be supplemented by concrete practical steps aimed at at least partial neutralization of the uncontrolled behavior of the dollar in the world currency markets. The desire to reduce dependence on the euro and the dollar received a real embodiment at the BRICS summit in Delhi (March 28-29, 2012). Two important documents were signed there: a general agreement on the provision of loans in national currencies and a multilateral agreement on the confirmation of letters of credit within the framework of the BRICS interbank cooperation mechanism (the obligation to provide priority servicing of transactions of banks in these countries). This is the first step towards the transition to national currencies in mutual settlements. The agreement provides for the creation of basic mechanisms for the implementation of settlements and financing of projects in national currencies between authorized banks BRICS members.
In addition, the BRICS participants expressed their readiness to consider India's proposal to establish a South-South Development Bank to finance infrastructure and innovation projects in developing countries. Announcing the possibility of creating a supranational development institution and a mechanism for mutual lending, the leaders of the BRICS countries expressed their readiness to build their own structure capable of accumulating investment resources and direct them to those projects that are primarily beneficial to the bloc itself.
Under the influence of the crisis, the problem of de-dollarization has acquired a rather high urgency. The need for the formation of a world currency unit has an objective character. The very logic of the globalization of economic activity does not correspond to the functioning of national currencies in the role of world money and ultimately undermines the foundations of such functioning. However, the ongoing debate over alternatives to the US dollar, including an increase in the role of the SDR, has so far not led to any meaningful results. The process of putting forward other alternative currencies will probably take a relatively long period of time. With significant differences in the interests of individual states (as well as large differences between the views of theoretical economists), achieving the goals of forming an international monetary system that would be based on the use of a universal supranational currency unit is, apparently, a targeted strategic setting for a long-term historical perspective. The most probable scenario seems to be the gradual decrease in the role of the dollar in world reserves and external settlements as the share of the USA in the world economy decreases. According to World Bank forecasts, the dollar will cease to be the main world currency by 2025. The WB report "Global Development Horizons 2011" notes that during this period a new multi-currency system may take shape: the US dollar will lose its dominance, the euro and yuan will equal its status 36 . This scenario is supported by the likelihood that the United States, the Eurozone countries and China will become the three main poles of economic growth by that time.
Under the influence of the crisis, the accents are also changing in the policy of international financial institutions, which are trying to adapt their activities to new imperatives.
In particular, if in the recent past capital controls introduced by some countries met with a strong negative reaction from the IMF, the crisis forced us to correct this established point of view. Ras-tet understanding that open market capital, combined with an unregulated financial sector, is a ticking time bomb. The collective work “Capital Inflows: The Role of Control”, published in 2010 by a group of IMF staff, recognizes the use of restrictive practices in relation to uncontrolled flows of foreign capital as a full-fledged anti-crisis policy tool that can strengthen the economic stability of developing countries. Among the logical measures, the authors of the report name taxes on financial transactions and on short-term foreign loans, reserving interest on loans in foreign currency, requirements for the minimum allowable investment period 37 .
This opinion was recognized as the official point of view of the foundation (with certain reservations). The report of the Board of Directors of the IMF (December 2012) consolidates the new vision of the fund regarding the regulation of cross-border capital flows: “Full liberalization of financial flows cannot be considered a universal goal for all countries at all times. Temporary restrictions may be reasonable and useful during economic shocks, as well as when other means of monetary policy have been exhausted.” According to the document, “under certain conditions, measures designed to restrict capital flows can be useful and expedient” 38 .
The IMF's new approach is, in fact, a recognition of changing realities, including the growing weight of emerging market countries most vulnerable to speculative capital flows. The stated principles directly contradict the key postulates of the Washington Consensus, which until recently dominated the global financial sector.
Towards "Retooling World Development"
Thus, speaking about the nature and characteristics of the crisis, we can single out the following. First, the events of 2008-2009 testify, in essence, to the crisis of the global economy model represented by the current industrial centers. This is primarily about the United States, which until recently acted as the standard of the market economy, the leader of technological achievements and innovations, and, no less important, the source of ideas and concepts about the ways and forms of development of the world economy and the world order as a whole. This does not yet mean a cardinal undermining of the dominant position of the United States. Nevertheless, it is evidence of the weakening of the Western-centric world and the emergence on the world stage of new players on a global scale and the development of the post-American world. According to, for example, the well-known American scientist, author of the book "The End of History and the Last Man" F. Fukuyama and President of the Center for Global Development N. Birdsall, "the American version of capitalism, if it has not lost its reputation, then at least it is no longer dominant. The West, and especially the US, will no longer be seen as the only center of innovative socio-political thought. And when it comes to international organizations, the voices and ideas of the United States and Europe are less and less dominant.” 39 .
Secondly, the causes of the global recession are not limited to economics alone. The crisis is not, in the final analysis, purely economic. It has a more general basis - the degradation of the old and the formation new system world order, which is accompanied by an exacerbation of anomalous phenomena in the real and financial sectors of the economy. This resulted in a deep and multilateral structural crisis that affected not only the economy, but also the political, ideological and other supporting structures of the modern world.
Thirdly, the urgency of the issue of entering a new level of interaction within the global economy has increased. The imperatives of sustainable development predetermine the need to create conditions and prerequisites for the formation of mutually beneficial and systemic ties between all groups of countries and regions. The crisis has highlighted the growing importance emerging markets. In this context, taking into account their interests and special needs, according to the ex-president of the World Bank R. Zoellick, “is no longer charity and solidarity, but a matter of self-interest of industrial states” 40 .
Discussions about the prospects and principles of building a global economy, taking into account the multipolar reality, remain relevant to this day, and the process of convergence of positions is still far from being completed, it seems. Despite, however, the differences in approaches, the general idea prevails that it is necessary to come up with new principles of the world order that most adequately meet modern realities. According to F. Fukuyama, under the influence of the crisis "not only the largest Wall Street companies collapsed, but a certain set of ideas about capitalism collapsed" 41 .
In the context of continuing uncertainty and the clash of opposing tendencies, reaching a new equilibrium state will require more than just adjusting national strategies development. Fundamental issues were put on the agenda - the development of new approaches to the formation of institutions and mechanisms at the global level that are adequate to the needs of sustainable socio-economic progress, taking into account such problems as environmental conservation, energy security, overcoming social inequality, and other pressing issues of our time. UN experts define this process as a "retooling" of world development, that is, "implementation of a fundamental reform of the mechanisms for managing the global economy and the development of a new paradigm of sustainable growth" 42 .
Mechanisms and methods of regulation in the conditions of overcoming the crisis Author unknown
4.3. Mechanisms of regulation of the world financial market in the context of globalization
The integral features of the modern economy are the processes of internationalization and globalization of the world economy, including the financial market. The abolition of restrictions on cross-border movements of capital in the second half of the 20th century. first only between developed, and subsequently between developing countries, led to a significant increase in the volume and expansion of the geography of international financial transactions. The free movement of capital has made it possible to attract significant amounts of investment in national economies experiencing a shortage of financial resources, while providing investors in countries with excess financial resources investment diversification.
The liberalization of capital flows has also contributed to the transfer of the most advanced financial technologies from developed to developing countries and to the improvement of the efficiency of financial markets on a global scale. At the same time, cross-border flows of speculative capital often had a destabilizing effect, leading to debt and balance of payments crises (for example, in the countries of Southeast Asia in 1997, in Russia in 1998, in Argentina in 2001) or to the formation of bubbles in the markets of individual assets (for example, the collapse of " new economy in the US in 2001 and the US subprime crisis in 2007). In this regard, among economists and politicians, both at the national and international levels, there has recently been an active discussion about the actions that national regulators should take to prevent such negative effects of globalization, in particular, about the possibility of reintroducing restrictions on traffic. capital.
The issue of creating an effective regulatory system to protect the financial market from the risks of volatile short-term capital flows is also relevant in the Russian context. Significant pressure on the ruble and the collapse of the Russian stock market in the autumn of 2008 demonstrate the continued vulnerability of the Russian economy to a sudden reversal financial flows. At the same time, the objectives of building an international financial center in Moscow by 2020, formulated in the Strategy for the Development of the Financial Market of the Russian Federation until 2020, require a significantly higher stability of the market.
Considering the issue of the effectiveness of centralization and decentralization of the regulation of the economy and the financial market in a historical perspective, it should be noted that views on its solution have changed quite seriously in different periods. Moreover, the phenomenon of market globalization observed by economists since the last third of the 20th century is by no means new. Reflecting on his time, the president of the International Congress of Historical Research in 1913 said: “The world is becoming one in a completely new sense of the word ... With the reduction of distances, thanks to the new forces placed at our disposal by science. the paths of development of political, economic and scientific thought in each of the areas are more and more intertwined. Events in any point of the globe today are significant for any other point. World history strives to become a unified history.
The time to which this statement refers was indeed characterized by the dynamic development of markets and the growth of the well-being of the inhabitants of most developed countries. However, the First World War and the Great Depression led to a sharp increase in unemployment and a fall in production. In response to demands for protection from an unfavorable economic environment, politicians were forced to abandon the gold standard that served at the beginning of the 20th century. the main guarantee of free trade and free flow of capital, and to close national borders to foreign producers and investors. The need for joint control over the movement of capital was also confirmed in 1944 at the Bretton Woods negotiations, where the post-war financial architecture of the world was determined.
Only in the late 1950s. in London, a market began to take shape, whose main advantage was freedom from government interference and control. In an attempt to protect the value of the pound sterling, the British government imposed restrictions on British banks to finance international trade outside the pound zone, and as a result, dollar deposits of American depositors became a new source of loans issued by British banks in dollars. This is how the Eurodollar market, which was not controlled by national regulators, appeared. It received another impetus for development during the Caribbean crisis, when Soviet banks, worried that their American accounts might be frozen, transferred their foreign exchange reserves to London. Finally, perhaps the most effective assistance to the Eurodollar market was unwittingly provided by the United States itself, which, in order to prevent the leakage of dollars from the country after the outbreak of the Vietnam War, introduced a tax on the purchase of foreign securities by American citizens, as a result of which foreign borrowers who wanted to borrow in dollars formed a market. Eurobonds.
With the increase in the volume of international trade, the volume of capital that does not have a national identity has also increased. The Euromarket was a legal platform where and from where capital could flow without interference from national legislative systems. Even before the formal collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement, despite the official existence of capital controls, it could provide large companies with non-national funding.
The collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971 and the scientific and technological revolution that began around the same time significantly accelerated the international movement of capital. The variety of financial instruments has immeasurably increased and the institutional structure of the market has become more complex. The paradigm prevailing in society has also changed - systems based on decentralization and self-organization began to be considered more effective, measures were taken to reduce the influence of the state on the economy, self-regulation methods came to the fore. As part of the general processes of economic liberalization, first in developed and then in developing countries, deregulation of financial markets took place: control over interest rates was abolished, barriers to the movement of capital between countries were eliminated almost everywhere, and restrictions on combining various types of professional activity were lifted. Between 1970 and 1998 the share of countries imposing restrictions on international capital transactions fell from 80% to 66%.
The free movement of capital had a number of positive effects on the economies of both developed and developing countries: capital was directed to the most productive investment projects, investment risks were distributed and new technologies were disseminated, the efficiency of national financial systems was improved, the export and import of capital helped to equalize fluctuations in national income (and, accordingly, consumption and investment). Integration into the system of world capital markets seemed very attractive even for countries at fairly early stages of economic development.
Financial markets have also contributed to improving the efficiency of the labor market and human capital: access to them by qualified employees helps to increase their geographic mobility (due to mortgages), increases the efficiency of job search, and most importantly, opens the door to the world of entrepreneurship. An increase in the income of qualified employees leads, in turn, to an increase in incentives for the accumulation of human capital. Increasing the degree of mobility international capital also limited such sources public funding like high public debt, taxes, and inflation—because large budget deficits indicate high levels of taxation or inflation, capital is flowing out of countries with poor financial discipline.
However, these benefits of market integration are countered by significant risks. It turned out that the opening of national financial markets to world capital can often contribute to the transfer of currency and balance of payments crises to third countries. According to a study from the late 1990s, 18 of the 26 banking crises of the past two decades occurred within 5 years of financial sector liberalization. The disproportionate growth of financial markets sometimes leads to misallocation of resources within the real economy. In addition, the process of liberalization has a negative impact on countries with a weak institutional environment - high levels of corruption, inefficient state apparatus and inadequate contract enforcement. In this regard, it is often suggested that countries with weak institutional environments should delay financial market liberalization until they have strengthened their institutions.
The extent to which the national economy can take advantage of the free movement of capital and limit its risks is determined primarily by domestic economic policy. Structural reforms to avoid overvalued currencies and excessive trade deficits must be key elements of a successful integration policy at the macroeconomic level. In the microeconomic sphere, such a system of incentives should be formed that would make it possible to avoid the formation of excessive foreign exchange debt. In many developing countries, the banking sector and banking supervision must be reformed. In addition, a clear and transparent information policy should be pursued in relation to the markets.
All this may explain why the transition of countries with planned economies to market model housekeeping or copying economic models leading Western countries in rapidly developing countries in the 1990s. led to a series of local financial crises in Southeast Asia, Mexico, Argentina and Russia, the impact of which, due to the “contangion” effect, was also felt in developed Western countries.
A possible causal relationship between the liberalization of capital movements and the emergence of financial crises caused a broad economic discussion about the need to reform the global financial architecture back in the late 1990s. Then such discussions were held at the level of the G-20 and G-33, but for the most part turned out to be unproductive. This was facilitated by the fact that the IMF and The World Bank(WB). The situation changed only with the beginning of the acute phase of the global financial crisis in 2008. The creation of the Financial Stability Forum and the discussion of the most actual problems development of the financial sector has become the subject of intergovernmental and supranational discussions, which, of course, reflects the requirements of the time and corresponds to the level of development of the global financial system. Among the most pressing issues currently being discussed are the following:
– reform of banking and insurance supervision (ensuring capital adequacy under Basel II and Solvency II);
- reform international standards financial reporting in order to increase information transparency;
– rethinking the role of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank and the creation of new control or advisory bodies;
– creation of a system for regulating the market of derivative financial instruments.
One of the most far-reaching and rather popular approaches to the reform of the global financial architecture is the abandonment of the policy of liberalization of world capital markets of recent decades and the new introduction of quantitative or tax restrictions on its movement, at least in developing countries. In itself, the idea of introducing a uniform international tax on spot transactions on foreign exchange market to reduce incentives to move large sums of capital in the short term and destabilize markets was proposed in 1978 by James Tobin.
The size of the tax, according to the original intention of the author, was to be about 1% of the transaction amount, but later the rate was lowered to 0.1–0.25%. Taxation currency transactions, according to Tobin, could bring two results: firstly, to stabilize the fluctuations exchange rates arising from short-term speculation in a floating exchange rate regime. Second, tax revenues could be used to help the poorest countries- thus, the tax also became an instrument for the redistribution of world wealth. However, thinking about his brainchild, Tobin did not believe that a small tax would allow big problems global economy. In 1978 he wrote: “I do not expect too much from my modest offer. I believe it will allow national economies and governments to regain some of the short-term autonomy they enjoyed before the introduction of currency convertibility. The proposal cannot and should not help to allow governments to pursue domestic policies regardless of external circumstances. Therefore, it will not free major governments from the imperative need to coordinate policies more effectively.
From the book On Loan Interest, Jurisdictional, Reckless. Reader contemporary problems"monetary civilization". author Katasonov Valentin Yurievich From the book Managing Risk. Clearing with central counterparties in global financial markets by Norman Peter21.2. EMIR. Draft European Financial Market Infrastructure Rules Less than two months after President Obama signed the Dodd-Frank Act, the European Commission approved sweeping detailed legislation proposals
author Smirnov Pavel Yurievich3. Distinctive features of the world market The world market should be distinguished from the national markets of individual countries. The world market covers the trade of a significant part of the countries of the world and has the following features.1. On the national market the movement of goods is conditioned by such
From the book World Economy. cheat sheets author Smirnov Pavel Yurievich22. Economic mechanism of the world market general view economic mechanism world market can be defined as a social system of organization productive forces(factors of production), a set of forms and methods for regulating economic processes in
From the book Golden Scam [The New World Order as financial pyramid] author Katasonov Valentin YurievichPart 1 ON BUILDING A NEW WORLD FINANCIAL
From the book National Economics: Lecture Notes author Koshelev Anton Nikolaevich3. The role and mechanisms of state regulation of the economy In the process of functioning and development of the national economy, a number of both purely economic and social, political and administrative problems naturally arise that cannot be
From the book Economic Theory: Textbook author Makhovikova Galina Afanasievna1.3. Role economic theory in the period of globalization of the world economy and the formation of a market economic system in Russia, in addition to public and personal interests, the range of problems of economic theory now includes the study of such a concept as “national
From the book National Economy author Koshelev Anton Nikolaevich44. Mechanisms of state regulation of the economy The main mechanisms of state regulation of the economy are: 1) direct mechanisms of state regulation are the most common because of their effectiveness. Their main form
author author unknown From the book Mechanisms and Methods of Regulation in the Conditions of Transition to Innovative Development author author unknownChapter 4 Mechanisms to stimulate entrepreneurial activity in the context of the transition to innovation
From the book Political Economy author Ostrovityanov Konstantin VasilievichThe emergence and strengthening of the global democratic market. As already mentioned, after the Second World War, as a result of the falling away of a number of countries in Europe and Asia from the capitalist system, the single world market collapsed. Countries that have fallen away from the world system
From the book Mechanisms and Methods of Regulation in the Conditions of Overcoming the Crisis author author unknown From the book World Bondage. Robbery by… author Katasonov Valentin Yurievich author Gorodnikov SergeyCAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE WORLD FINANCIAL CRISIS The global financial crisis that broke out in November 1997 had a direct impact on Russia's financial system. He shook the foundations of everything economic policy the tops of the ruling regime, highlighted with
From the book RUSSIA: PROBLEMS OF THE TRANSITION FROM LIBERALISM TO NATIONALISM author Gorodnikov Sergey2. The cause of the new world financial crisis is the bourgeois-democratic revolution in Russia. A completely similar situation is brewing now, but at a new stage in the world development of the industrial bourgeois-capitalist civilization. Prerequisites for the current global
From the book Advertising. Principles and practice by William WellsBibliography
1 Stages of development of the financial crisis
The financial crisis that engulfed the countries of Southeast Asia, and then Russia, was the most serious and destructive among all the financial cataclysms that shook world economy over the past few decades, experts from the American magazine Business Week say. Signs of the negative effects of the crisis have already begun to appear in all countries. The value of the shares of most US companies fell by 25% or more. The economic depression in Asian states is deepening. The development of the Japanese economy continues to slow down for the fourth quarter in a row in the absence of radical measures from the government of the country. The states of Latin America are on the verge of a new economic recession.
The effects of the financial crisis pose a threat to economic development industrialized countries not only in the short term, but also in the long term. American and Western European companies developed their strategies for the distant future, taking into account the demand in the markets of developing countries. However, as a result of the crisis in these countries, a downward trend in demand has already emerged, which will continue in the future. The situation on the stock markets will remain unfavorable. The value of shares of large companies will decline due to the deterioration of the prospects for the development of world trade.
Rising productivity in the United States against the background of declining consumer demand abroad could lead to overproduction in the country and a slowdown in the growth of profits of American corporations. Many experts have already revised down their forecasts for the profits of the largest US companies in the third quarter of this year. So, if in July 1998. Economists from the First Call research group predicted a 10% increase in third-quarter profits for the top 500 US corporations, then, in accordance with a forecast prepared in September, this figure was reduced to 3.7%. According to Standard & Poor's analysts, the profits of these corporations will decrease by 3.2% in 1998, and will increase again in 1999 (by about 5%).
2 State regulation of the crisis
financial crisis bankruptcy demand
Asian countries remain the epicenter of the global financial crisis. Recently, the crisis in this region has entered a new phase, when the states involved in it began to gradually retreat from the Western doctrine that only deep structural reforms and adherence to free trade rules can help them get out of a difficult situation. The problems of high interest rates, a record increase in the number of bankruptcies and growing social tensions have come to the fore. Only Indonesia and Thailand are still reforming. Other Asian countries began to look for their own ways out of the crisis.
Japan, being the most big country, involved in the financial crisis in Asia, according to economists at Nomura Research Institute, cannot accept the option proposed by the United States to overcome the crisis by closing a number of banks.
Institute experts believe that this will set off a chain reaction and lead to a wide wave of corporate bankruptcies from which the Japanese economy will not be able to recover for many years.
The Japanese government has chosen a different way to solve financial problems. In accordance with it, banks with insignificant assets will be merged with successful ones, bad loans are supposed to be gradually liquidated, taxpayers' money will be used to restore the financial system. However, according to American experts, this plan is too soft and will only help to maintain a weak financial structure in the country, not to strengthen it, and will not convince foreign investors that the Japanese economy has again entered a period of stable growth.
As early as the spring of 1997, the Chinese government developed a plan aimed at maintaining the rapid pace of development of the national economy. The plan called for rebuilding the failing public sector with $750 billion in investment by the end of this century. Chinese officials said these measures could help sustain economic growth at 8% a year.
But the sharp decline in major indices in the US stock markets and Western Europe, the deteriorating situation in Japan and the financial crisis in Russia hindered the implementation of this plan and pushed the Chinese government to take more drastic measures to protect the national economy. It was announced additional issue government bonds in the amount of $ 12 billion. For projects in the field of telecommunications, electricity, housing construction, transport and irrigation, and to increase the total bank lending quota from $108 billion in 1997 to $120 billion in 1998. Government spending on infrastructure projects this year is expected to reach $398 billion.
The Chinese government has decided to slow down a number of reforms, as they currently have a negative impact on the country's economy, the situation in which is aggravated by the ongoing financial instability in the Asian region. Thus, the rapid privatization of state-owned enterprises has already led to a significant increase in unemployment in China. Most likely will be postponed and planned for 2000. achieving full convertibility of the national currency - the yuan. According to Business Week experts, the Chinese government's attempts to protect the national economy from the negative consequences of the financial crisis by slowing down reforms in the country are unlikely to bring the expected positive results. A delay in reforms in China could worsen the situation of state-owned enterprises and lead to further weakening of the country's financial system. Taiwan, which was barely affected by the Asian financial crisis in 1997, is currently on the verge of an economic recession. Taiwanese exports are forecast to fall 8% in 1998. Unemployment, hitherto kept at a low level, began to rise. Large companies such as PresidentEnterprises, ChinaAirlines, FormosaPlastics have already announced a significant reduction in their profits in the first half of this year. Consumer confidence has plummeted.
The Taiwanese government said that the country can no longer escape the impact of the negative effects of the Asian financial crisis, and therefore the task of the leadership is to reduce the negative impact of this factor on the national economy. To this end, it is planned to resort to intervention on stock market, limit currency trading as well as short-term transactions.
If earlier the efforts of the Taiwanese government were aimed primarily at reducing the country's chronic budget deficit, which forced to limit government spending, currently the problems with the budget are relegated to the background. The focus of Taiwan's leadership is to support the stable development of the country's economy, so it was decided to allocate significant funds for the implementation of infrastructure projects and increase the expenditure side of the budget.
If the situation on the stock market deteriorates, the government intends to force state pension funds to purchase bonds. It is planned to take measures to protect the national currency - the Taiwanese dollar, consisting, in particular, in limiting short-term transactions and imposing a ban on the activities of hedge funds.
In Taiwan's economy, Business Week experts note, there are already factors that may curb the widespread effects of the Asian financial crisis in the country. Thus, Taiwanese corporations have small debts; 60% of loans issued national banks enter the private sector.
In order to support the local market, the administration of Hong Kong (recently returned to China) stopped buying shares, which contributed to some improvement in the economic situation in this territory.
However, the main problem remained unresolved: the Hong Kong economy is too dependent on the real estate market. The administration can choose one of two ways out of this situation. The first is to take the real estate market out of state influence and thus contribute to its gradual collapse, which will cause huge damage to real estate companies and affect hundreds of thousands of homeowners.
The second way is to continue state intervention in this market to protect the banks associated with it and construction organizations, which is likely to only delay the collapse of the real estate market.
total cost property in Hong Kong has recently fallen by $250 billion. The share price has fallen by $300 billion.
According to the forecast, the first indicator may decrease by another 50% in the near future, and the second - by 20%. This puts Hong Kong banks in a difficult position, 44% of whose borrowed funds are placed in real estate. High interest rates, which reached 12.33% of short-term loans in August of this year against 7.36% in the same month of 1997, put pressure on both banks and borrowers. In the near future, the cost of loans will increase further due to the fact that, according to the American company Standard & Poor's, as of August 31, 1998, Hong Kong's credit rating has fallen.
An obstacle to the further development of the Hong Kong economy and its way out of the financial crisis, according to American experts, is its reliance on a group of cartels. Banks agree among themselves on the establishment of base interest rates. The artificial maintenance of the exchange rate of the national currency against the US dollar held back the growth of financial costs, which stimulated the economic boom. Hong Kong companies made lucrative deals with the government that kept prices high. But as the country's economic growth slowed and interest rates rose, the cartel-led economy proved unsustainable.
